US Open

[DOGS THAT BARK]

72 holes @ Camelot
Janzen -115 over Huston
Lehman +105 over Duval
Sutherland +110 over C Smith
Gogal -110 over Gamez
Hjrtstedt +100 over Weibe

Tough to cap with course form dating back to 96 at tour championship,but taking into account their current form preceding that tourny back then and 4th rounds at Colonial past few years have tried to find some correlations.
Went thru entire field but here is top 5 from Tour Champ in 96 and their current form preceding "that" tourney.
1st Lehman was 5-10-7 going in
2nd Faxon was 51-62-6-71
3rd Striker was 2-3
4th K perry n/a
5th Couples 19-6-8
Would indicate lehman neutral,Faxon likes course and Striker and Couples form back then carried them.
Tiger was interesting.You could say he finished in top 25 (21st)or only beat 7 players in entire field with Lehman finishing 20 strokes ahead of him..Now I know that was in 96 and he has came a long way but his form prior to that tourney was
5-3-win-3-win
so he was not in what I would call the hacking stage.Would appear he does not favor this course.With that being said I took him at +170 a while back at 5dimes with intentions of finding some sort of leverage later.
Nice write up AGAIN Stan.Always look forward to it.Great contributions by many including our on site reporter PMJ.
Cheers to all

 

[Anders]

"tough to cap" as DTB says, especially when the players can't agree ...
hope this piece of Aussie input helps a little - or else just screws you up

TULSA, Oklahoma: Robert Allenby and Stuart Appleby do not quite agree as to how difficult, or otherwise, Southern Hills will play at this week's US Open.

The two Australians had their first look at the course today, and were surprised by the rough, or lack of it.

"It's thick in places, thin in places," Allenby said.

"I had some good lies and some bad lies."

The US Golf Association generally tries to have the rough severe enough to extract a half stroke penalty for a player whose ball finds it. In other words, he should be able to save par about half the time, and make bogey the other half.

Perhaps it will still turn out to be that way, but Allenby won't be surprised if more pars than bogeys are made out of the long stuff.

"Hitting a short iron (from the rough), it wasn't too much of a problem," he said.

Appleby, however, had a slightly different take.

"It's the most scruffy rough I've seen at a US Open but it's terrible to be in, because it's hard to distinguish if your ball is going to jump," he said.

"At most US Opens, you only hit it out 50 yards. Here, you won't know if it's going to be 100 yards or 150."

Seven of the 12 par-fours measure less than 375 metres, relatively short by modern standards, and Allenby reckons a lot of these holes will be vulnerable to birdies for anyone whose drive finds the fairway.

But much, of course, will depend on how firm the greens are. They were like "concrete" today, according to Allenby, and they're not likely to get any softer unless a summer thunderstorm erupts.

Unlike most US Open courses, the rough does not always ring the Southern Hills greens, which means the chip-and-run shot from the tightly-cut areas will be a needed weapon in every player's arsenal.

"It looks like it will be a cross between a US Open and a British Open," Appleby said.

"It'll be a very different US Open, a bit like Pinehurst (two years ago)."

Appleby doesn't plan to use his driver very often. Instead, he will focus on shaping his tee shots to the specific part of the fairway from which it is easiest to find the safe part of the green."

Appleby, Allenby and Peter Lonard are the only Australians in the field.

Appleby and Allenby were exempt, while Lonard advanced at sectional qualifying last week.

GLTA

 

[Stanley]

Mark, if you're going to make such a grand entrance here at MadJacks then you have be prepared to take what this hugely successful golf forum throws at you

You could be right with Douma, but none of these players this week are hackers. They've come through some pretty impressive qualifying to get here. But getting here and staying here for the weekend is another matter. In fact, my biggest concern about those plays is that they are effectively 36-hole matchups!

Cheers Ian ... the hot & humid weather conditions certainly won't be a worry for Thongchai

Agree with what you say about Tiger in '96 DTB, but he is much more mature now and has the game to cope with tough courses rather than just boom it long. A patient player will win here and I would not have contemplated Garcia until I saw how he changed his game plan for the Colonial. Very impressive and a huge difference from the Garcia that finished last at Carnoustie.

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

We got some reporters! Thanks Anders.As far as rain 30% chance thursday looks about it.

Adding two 72 holes @ $plays
Bjorn -105 over Cabrera
Lehman -110 over Hoch

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Agree with his maturity Stan and he is the one to beat.Between his savy and ole Murph they have me scared to hedge the +170 Tiger win with Tiger over 2 1/2 finish at -115.
I will be rooting for Sergio as he has the heart of a lion. Was set to oppose till his display recently which appeared to go against his very nature.Will probably pass on his matches but watch and pull for him.
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Decided to pick up a couple of Interactive shares on Sergio and Lehman @ $4 a pop.

[This message has been edited by DOGS THAT BARK (edited 06-12-2001).]

 

[Anders]

Reporter at work; take two

Here's one for Ian and Stan on their MAN

Tulsa, Oklahoma, June 12, AFP - American hotel beds have been given the thumbs down by Thongchai Jaidee -- the first Thai golfer to compete in the US Open.
The 31-year-old former paratrooper insists they are too soft.
``I choose to sleep on the floor because the mattress is too soft. I sleep with a towel under my head because the pillows are too soft. I spend 200 dollars a night for a room but I sleep on the floor,'' Thongchai said, laughing.
The big hitting Thongchai won his way into the US Open by qualifying in the regional qualifier in Tarzana in Southern California.
Since then he has been training in Palm Desert and if his US Open adventure is a success Thongchai plans to try and qualify for the US Tour next year.
Thongchai, who won the Indian Open on this year's Asian Tour, is convinced he will be able to make the switch from the Asian Tour to the US thanks to his Thai army experiences.
``The discipline and the focus and the work ethic that I found in the military, I use some of those same principles and apply them to my golf game,'' he said.

 

[Stanley]

Cheers Anders - having seen him swing the club he makes Allen Doyle look good, so I don't know how he can be described as a big-hitter. Still, with his military background - they did actually pay for him to be a full-time golfer while on military service - maybe we can get him and Bonovox to take out Tiger if he leads Garcia by one on the 71st hole

Well, that's enough matchups for me today. I have 226 listed onsite and 125 of them involve Camelot

Appreaciate the effort, Mark. I'm sure we'll all be exhausted by Sunday!

BTW, I went to look at DTB's plays @ Moneyplays and their lines have moved 15-20 cents on those plays! There must be some serious money following this forum this week

Back in morning to look at the week's props

 

[Anders]

Tulsa, Oklahoma, June 12, AFP - Hole-by-hole description of the par-70, 6973-yard Southern Hills Country Club course, where the 101st US Open Golf Championship begins on Thursday:

One - par-4, 454 yards: From elevated tee bends slightly to left. Deep bunkers guard right of fairway, and the level left side of fairway offers better entry to green, which slopes from front to back.
Two - par-4, 467 yards: Most demanding tee shot on course mus travel at least 235 yards to carry a creek - which turns and then runs parallel the fairway - and two cross bunkers. Level green protected by bunkers.
Three - par-4, 408 yards: Sharp dogleg left requires a long tee shot, while bunkers and pin positions will demand skillful, short-iron approaches.
Four - par-4, 368 yards: Picturesque rolling fairway leads to a heavily bunkered green that slopes severely back-to-front
Five - par-5, 642 yards: Longest hole in the history of the US Open and one of toughest on the course. Slight dogleg left, with landing area narrowed by fairway bunkers.
Six - par-3, 175 yards: Tricky downhill, where shifting winds affect club selection and creek on left side runs dangerously close to fast, heavily bunkered green.
Seven - par-4, 382 yards: Blind tee shot to crest of hill, steep bank guards the right side of the green. Fairway slopes to right as it turns to left, with trees pinching in from both sides.
Eight - par-3, 225 yards: New tee makes this uphill hole 15 yards longer than in the 1977 US Open. Undulating green well guarded by sand.
Nine - par-4, 374 yards: Dogleg right with a fairway bunker plays into prevailing wind. Second shot plays uphill to elevated green.
10 - par-4, 374 yards: Dogleg right, short approach to elevated, two-tiered green.
11 - par-3, 165 yards: Shortest hole on the course requires pinpoint accuracy into small green surrounded by four bunkers.
12 - par-4, 456 yards: Called one of the best par-4s in the country by both Ben Hogan and Arnold Palmer. Dogleg left is longer than before and a new tee adds 10-15 yards, bringing fairway bunker on left more into play. Relatively flat green guarded by bunkers on the left and a creek to the right.
13 - par-5, 534 yards: Right-to-left tee shot will allow a chance to reach the green with a second shot that will likely be uphill and blind. Those who come up short could find one of two ponds fronting the green, whiile bunkers the green with a second shot that will likely be uphill and blind. Those who come up short could find one of two ponds fronting the green, whiile bunkers guard the green right, left and behind.
14 - par-3, 215 yards: A new tee has lengthened this downhill hole. Players must take care that prevailing right-to-left winds don't blow the tee shot toward out of bounds.
15 - par-4, 412 yards: Fairway bends left around sing bunker. Contoured green protected by bunkers.
16 - par-4, 491 yards: Longest par-4 in US Open history, played as a par-5 in 1977. Drive must carry a gentle slope 245 yards off tee to provide good view of the small, well-bunkered green.
17 - par-4, 365 yards: Dogleg right lined by trees on the left and a creek on the right. Small, shallow green backed by dense rough.
18 - par-4, 466 yards: Dogleg right where the safer left side of the fairway offers an uphill approach of 170-200 yards to the largest but most severely sloping green on the course.

Personally, I'd advise Bonovox to go for Tiger on the 17th; offers a bit more cover

If Tiger plays 18 then we know Bono still hasn't found what he's looking for

 

[Ice Picks]

Just a quick note to say HI to the fellow golfnuts here.
www.sportsodds.com.au is posting a second and separate tournament for the U.S. Open, which is the U.S. OPEN MINUS TIGER.

You can bet on you favorites without having to worry about getting scorched by Woods.

Back with some picks in a while....

 

[neverteaseit]

staley those are some decent plays with some great value to them.

going with these matchups for 72 holes
clarke over olazabal -115 2 units
janzen over couples -140 2 units
triplett over may -105 6 units
calcavecchia over langer +125 6 units

laying heavy on triplett and calc. feel there game suits them very much here. relly like triplett to fair very well this year and calcavecchia should drop a very good opening round. 3 of 4 maybe over friday.
still like tiger to win by a bunch!!


gl to all and ty for all info much appreciated

 

[Cartman88]

Hi Guys,

Well after going through the massive number of betting options available for the US Open here is what I have ended up going for:

Tiger to win +160 @ Five Dimes
Singh to win (with No Tiger) 12-1 @ Surrey
Garcia to win (with No Tiger) 17-1 @ NZ Tab

Whilst I agree this course is not the ideal set-up for a Tiger demolition, there are some basic things you can't ignore. He has won 5 of his past 6 tournaments indicating he is playing at his best. He was won the past 4 majors and he has always said that he is going to be judged on how many majors he wins. He also has the well known "mental edge" over the field. He is no certainty but at this price I still consider Tiger very good value.

Singh & Garcia are my next two picks for all the reasons Stan mentioned previously. I have opted to take the shorter odds and take them in the No Tiger market.

The bolter:

Flesch to place (with no Tiger) 35-1 @ Centrebet.

After the huge movement in the matchup lines following Stans selections being posted

I had to search around to find some value. Here is what I think is the best of them:

Azinger +107 vs Cink @ Canbet
Leonard +105 vs Sutton @ Five Dimes
Bjorn -110 vs Cabrera @ Camelot
Allenby -120 vs Di Marco @ Camelot
Parnevik -110 vs Langer @ Surrey

And finally:

Lehman -115 to finish 18th or better @ GC Sports
Furyk +250 to win US group @ Centrebet

In the Furyk bet he opposes Toms Verplank Mediate & Couples and I think he is clearly the top pick in this group.

I also see that Centrebet have a betting option on whether a hole in one will occur at the US Open.

Yes $2.25
No $1.55

Any thoughts on this one ????

 

[sweatbet]

Local report from Tulsa. Seems everyone is still complaining about the greens, especially 9 & 18. Tiger hit a perfect shot in the middle of the green, on 18 today, and his ball ended up 20 yds. off of the green. He had a few choice words to the media after that. Officials are considering cutting the greens higher to slow them down. (when tiger talks people listen) Heat is going to be a major factor, forecast of 90-95 with heat index of 110-115, for the next week. There are many hills on the course, with the heat and humidity, players not used to it could be effected. Forecast calls for 50% chance of rain Thursday night. Good Luck to all.

 

[Ian]

Sportingbet have finally come out with prices for other markets and the one that stands out to me is Azinger in the top US player without Woods (and therefore taking out Garcia and Singh) 40-1 seems very big

 

[Stanley]

LMFAO!!! That was funny Anders

pmj18, could use your local info ... and probably so could every bookie reading this thread

... there is a 30% chance of rain tonight, 10-20% chance of rain tomorrow and rising, as you say, to 50% on Thursday night. Do you think this will be enough to soften the greens and take some of the fire out of them?

Thanks

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Pinnacle has finally released their 16 cent lines and have several available including 3balls.here are some that may be of interest.
Bjorn +100/Cabrera -116
Lehman -110/Hoch -106
Tiger +155/Field -171

Also appears Spiro has finally had time to digest all line movements and gotten up the nerve to get out there with his big 30 cent lines. LOL

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Know what ya mean on the linemovement Stan.
Got back from Madisonville and saw your Fisher and crew plays and when I went to get down on a few and they had all moved outside my range

 

[Stanley]

Cartman88, I can't find the info for the 3 PGA Championships that were held at Southern Hills, but for the two previous US Opens there were no holes-in-one.

In the 55 Opens since the 2nd World War, there have been holes-in-one at 17 of them, so the odds certainly point to there being none this year.

 

[Stanley]

Props:

I LOVE 'make/miss the cut' props! From Centrebet's props on 76 different players, these are to miss the cut:

Billy Andrade -133 [3 units]
Notah Begay -149 [3 units]
Thomas Bjorn +165 [2 units]
Jose Coceres +135 [3 units]
Robert Damron -118 [3 units]
Carlos Franco -149 [2 units]
Harrison Frazar -133
Pierre Fulke -167 [3 units]
Retief Goosen -133 [3 units]
Mathias Gronberg -118 [3 units]
Toshimitsu Izawa +145 [2 units]
Bernhard Langer +175
Paul Lawrie -133 [3 units]
J.L. Lewis -133 [3 units]
Peter Lonard -149 [3 units]
Jeff Maggert -154 [2 units]
Mark O'Meara -133 [3 units]
Corey Pavin -105
Phillip Price -111
Eduardo Romero -133 [3 units]
Chris Smith -139 [2 units]
Duffy Waldorf -125 [2 units]

All lines @ Centrebet

 

[Ian]

Stan
Hope you have all 4 days off to keep track of all these bets

One thing that worries me about the m/c bets is don't they still have the 10 shot rule where possibly a lot more players could make the weekend?

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

I remember last year