W3 and L3 Streaks

jng · Apr 20, 2023

4-5 Down one unit on Wednesday
Still ahead five. Stunning for me at this advanced stage of the MLB season.
Opened a 3 team ML par MKE/Den to GSW cuz of GSW fanatic wife +155 or so.

THURSDAY


Ticket#:244794591 Apr 19 06:05 PM Apr 19 07:10 PM Apr 20 07:00 PM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 19 05:00 PM	NBA NBA NBA	PARLAY (3 TEAMS) [542] MILWAUKEE BUCKS -270 [544] DENVER NUGGETS -365 [550] GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -220	500 / 769
Ticket#:244806359 Apr 20 03:35 PM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 19 09:37 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [902] PITTSBURGH PIRATES -155 ( ACTION )	775 / 500
Ticket#:244806360 Apr 20 03:40 PM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 19 09:37 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [904] PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES -1?-115 ( R FELTNER -R / M STRAHM -L )	575 / 500
Ticket#:244806361 Apr 20 04:40 PM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 19 09:37 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [906] CHICAGO CUBS -115 ( ACTION )	575 / 500

jng · Apr 20, 2023

Chatgpt gave me this. Part of it is pretty funny

The percentage of time that a Major League Baseball team with three wins in a row wins a fourth game varies based on several factors, such as the strength of the team and the quality of its opponent. However, historical data indicates that teams with three consecutive wins have a higher probability of winning their fourth game compared to teams without a win streak.

According to MLB statistics, from 2015 to 2019, teams that won three consecutive games went on to win their fourth game in approximately 56.9% of cases. This suggests that a team that has won three games in a row has a slightly better than even chance of winning their fourth game.

It's important to note, however, that past performance is not always a reliable indicator of future results, and there are many variables that can affect the outcome of any given baseball game. As such, while a three-game winning streak may increase a team's chances of winning their fourth game, it is by no means a guarantee of victory.

————-

I have to agree that a four-game win streak is much more difficult without a three-game win streak.

jng · Apr 20, 2023

The next had the same answer with this middle paragraph:

”According to MLB statistics, from 2015 to 2019, teams that lost three consecutive games went on to lose their fourth game in approximately 55.7% of cases. This suggests that a team that has lost three games in a row has a slightly higher than even chance of losing their fourth game.”

————

Therefore, avoid medium to big chalk and hit small dogs harder.

I’d guess that combining streak observation with actual handicapping—or only playing dogs!—could be a winner.

Kenman uses that database pretty damn well.

jng · Apr 21, 2023

One and two and the loss of one unit and the total is still up four units.

The money line NBA parley won +150, but it also would’ve won as an ATS par probably +600. Oh well.

FRIDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 21	MLB [954] PITTSBURGH PIRATES -135 [Action]	675.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244851216
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 21	MLB [966] BALTIMORE ORIOLES -173 [Action]	865.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244851217
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 21	MLB [968] TEXAS RANGERS -1?EV [J SEARS -L/J GRAY -R]	500.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244851218
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 21	MLB [970] LOS ANGELES ANGELS -1?-135 [T CLARKE -R/S OHTANI -R]	675.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244851219
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 21	MLB [976] MILWAUKEE BREWERS -173 [Action]	865.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244851220
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 21	MLB [979] ST LOUIS CARDINALS +115 [Action]	500.00 USD / 575.00 USD	244851221

jng · Apr 22, 2023

Friday 3-3 and lost a few hundred bucks. Round it up to a one unit loss.
Total is still plus three.

SATURDAY
I added Rangers off angle.

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 22	MLB [903] NEW YORK METS +110 [Action]	500.00 USD / 550.00 USD	244900243
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 22	MLB [908] PITTSBURGH PIRATES -147 [Action]	735.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244900244
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 22	MLB [914] TAMPA BAY RAYS -190 [Action]	950.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244900245
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 22	MLB [916] TEXAS RANGERS -1?-115 [S FUJINAMI -R/A HEANEY -L]	575.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244900246
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 22	MLB [918] BALTIMORE ORIOLES -178 [Action]	890.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244900247
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 22	MLB [920] LOS ANGELES ANGELS -1?EV [Z GREINKE -R/T ANDERSON -L]	500.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244900248

jng · Apr 23, 2023

Saturday 4-2 plus two units so total is now up six for the season.

(Steel is worth a little of your time.)

SUNDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 23	MLB [954] PITTSBURGH PIRATES -105 [Action]	525.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244966673
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 23	MLB [962] BALTIMORE ORIOLES -173 [Action]	865.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244966674
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 23	MLB [966] TAMPA BAY RAYS -147 [Action]	735.00 USD / 500.00 USD	244966675
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 23	MLB [971] HOUSTON ASTROS +125 [Action]	500.00 USD / 625.00 USD	244966676
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 23	MLB [975] WASHINGTON NATIONALS +225 [Action]	500.00 USD / 1125.00 USD

jng · Apr 24, 2023

Sunday was 4–1 plus three units.
Total is up nine units for the season which is plus $4500
Add that to the friggin fortune Steel City is making for us all and I’m quite happy with the first month of the season.

MONDAY

A little tricky today because two teams winning streaks cancel each other out and perhaps it is not wise to bet on a favorite +200 even with a winning streak. Let’s see how that goes.

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 24	MLB [901] MIAMI MARLINS +225 [Action]	500.00 USD / 1125.00 USD	245032205
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 24	MLB [906] BALTIMORE ORIOLES +110 [Action]	500.00 USD / 550.00 USD	245032206
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 24	MLB [910] TORONTO BLUE JAYS -160 [Action]	800.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245032207
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 24	MLB [916] CLEVELAND GUARDIANS -1?+105 [A GOMBER -L/C QUANTRILL -R]	500.00 USD / 525.00 USD	245032208
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 24	MLB [920] MILWAUKEE BREWERS -155 [Action]	775.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245032209

jng · Apr 25, 2023

Monday was 2-3 with a loss of about 1.5 units
Total is now plus 7.5 units

TUESDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 25	MLB [952] PITTSBURGH PIRATES +107 [Action]	500.00 USD / 535.00 USD	245071931
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 25	MLB [960] SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +102 [Action]	500.00 USD / 510.00 USD	245071932
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 25	MLB [962] BALTIMORE ORIOLES -155 [Action]	775.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245071933
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 25	MLB [964] TAMPA BAY RAYS -180 [Action]	900.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245071934
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 25	MLB [966] TORONTO BLUE JAYS -1?EV [M CLEVINGER -R/J BERRIOS -R]	500.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245071935
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 25	MLB [976] PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +103 [Action]	500.00 USD / 515

jng · Apr 26, 2023

Tuesday 2-4 losing about three units.

on to WEDNESDAY

Ticket#:245111242 Apr 26 03:35 PM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 25 09:49 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [901] LOS ANGELES DODGERS -130 ( ACTION )	650 / 500
Ticket#:245111243 Apr 26 04:10 PM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 25 09:49 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [903] WASHINGTON NATIONALS +175 ( ACTION )	500 / 875
Ticket#:245111244 Apr 26 06:45 PM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 25 09:49 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [910] SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -115 ( ACTION )	575 / 500
Ticket#:245111245 Apr 26 10:07 AM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 25 09:49 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [914] TORONTO BLUE JAYS -1?+110 ( M KOPECH -R / Y KIKUCHI -L )	500 / 550
Ticket#:245111246 Apr 26 10:10 AM	INTERNET / -1	Apr 25 09:49 PM	MLB	STRAIGHT BET [916] MINNESOTA TWINS -125 ( ACTION )	625 / 500

jng · Apr 27, 2023

Wednesday was 3-2 and up about one unit
Total is now plus 5.5 units

THURSDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 27	MLB [952] ATLANTA BRAVES -190 [Action]	950.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245164605
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 27	MLB [958] SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS -135 [Action]	675.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245164606
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 27	MLB [959] WASHINGTON NATIONALS +193 [Action]	500.00 USD / 965.00 USD	245164607
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 27	MLB [965] TAMPA BAY RAYS -147 [Action]	735.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245164608
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 27	MLB [969] NEW YORK YANKEES -165 [Action]	825.00 USD / 500.00 USD

jng · Apr 28, 2023

Thursday was no fun. 2-3 losing two units. Now only plus 3.5

FRIDAY


WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking / To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 28	MLB [916] TORONTO BLUE JAYS -105 [Action]	525.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245208055
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 28	MLB [919] TAMPA BAY RAYS -145 [Action]	725.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245208056
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 28	MLB [921] NEW YORK YANKEES +187 [Action]	500.00 USD / 935.00 USD	245208057
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 28	MLB [925] LOS ANGELES ANGELS +120 [Action]	500.00 USD / 600.00 USD	245208058
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 28	MLB [927] CINCINNATI REDS -107 [Action]	535.00 USD / 500.00 USD

jng · Apr 29, 2023

Friday was 3-2. Plus one unit. Total is up 6.5 unitss

SATURDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 29	MLB [966] MINNESOTA TWINS -1?-105 [B KELLER -R/B OBER -R]	525.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245249944
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 29	MLB [968] TORONTO BLUE JAYS -1?-120 [C FLEXEN -R/K GAUSMAN -R]	600.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245249945
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 29	MLB [973] TAMPA BAY RAYS -135 [Action]	675.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245249946
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 29	MLB [975] CINCINNATI REDS -155 [Action]	775.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245249947
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 29	MLB [977] PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +110 [Action]	500.00 USD / 550.00 USD	245249948

jng · Apr 29, 2023

Saturday was 3-2 plus about two units. Total now +8.5 units. On to a big, dicey (Smitty…)
No! 3-1 cuz of Toronto pitching change.

SUNDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 30	MLB [902] MIAMI MARLINS +140 [Action]	500.00 USD / 700.00 USD	245298705
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 30	MLB [903] PITTSBURGH PIRATES -135 [Action]	675.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245298706
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 30	MLB [909] ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS -120 [Action]	600.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245298707
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 30	MLB [916] TORONTO BLUE JAYS -178 [Action]	890.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245298708
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 30	MLB [919] TAMPA BAY RAYS -190 [Action]	950.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245298709
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 30	MLB [926] MILWAUKEE BREWERS -125 [Action]	625.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245298710
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 30	MLB [927] CINCINNATI REDS -147 [Action]	735.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245298711
STRAIGHT BET	Apr 30	MLB [929] PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES +134 [Action]	500.00 USD / 670.00 USD	245298712

jng · May 1, 2023

Yes, Sunday belongs to the man. Smitty, it took me a minute to remember that.

1-7 losing a bunch of units. And cash. Minus 8.5 units. Coincidentally, exactly my winnings. Total is zero.

Closed a couple pars with Warriors ML.

Knicks didn’t feel like the right side, did it?
But I was on them.

I’ll try this for little longer as the law of averages nips at my heels. And nuts.

MONDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	May 01	MLB [954] WASHINGTON NATIONALS +125 [Action]	500.00 USD / 625.00 USD	245354492
STRAIGHT BET	May 01	MLB [964] HOUSTON ASTROS -190 [Action]	950.00 USD/500 USD

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking / To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	May 01	MLB [958] LOS ANGELES DODGERS -165 [Action]	825.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245354488

jng · May 2, 2023

Starting the week plus one until. The total, plus one unit.

jng · May 2, 2023

TUESDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking / To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	May 02	MLB [902] MIAMI MARLINS -125 [Action]	625.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245392556
STRAIGHT BET	May 02	MLB [908] SAN DIEGO PADRES -195 [Action]	975.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245392557
STRAIGHT BET	May 02	MLB [910] LOS ANGELES DODGERS -160 [Action]	800.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245392558
STRAIGHT BET	May 02	MLB [911] CLEVELAND GUARDIANS +158 [Action]	500.00 USD / 790.00 USD	245392559
STRAIGHT BET	May 02	MLB [914] BOSTON RED SOX +125 [Action]	500.00 USD / 625.00 USD	245392560
STRAIGHT BET	May 02	MLB [925] LOS ANGELES ANGELS +115 [Action]	500.00 USD / 575.00 USD	245392561
STRAIGHT BET	May 02	MLB [928] TEXAS RANGERS +130 [Action]	500.00 USD / 650.00 USD	245392562
STRAIGHT BET	May 02	MLB [930] HOUSTON ASTROS -165 [Action]	825.00 USD / month 500.00 USD	245392563

AND a Par to keep my wife’s beloved Warriors on the table.

WagerTypeARLAY (4 TEAMS)
Date:	Team:
May 02	NBA [518] NEW YORK KNICKS -275
May 02	NBA [520] GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -190
May 03	NBA [522] BOSTON CELTICS -440
May 05	NBA [532] PHOENIX SUNS -210
Risking 500 USD To Win 1385 USD
I’m

jng · May 3, 2023

Tuesday was 5-3 and plus about 1.5 units. The dumb ML hoops parley died an ignominious death at the hands of AD and his guys.

WEDNESDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking / To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	May 03	MLB [964] BOSTON RED SOX +130 [Action]	500.00 USD / 650.00 USD	245439198
STRAIGHT BET	May 03	MLB [967] BALTIMORE ORIOLES -147 [Action]	735.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245439199
STRAIGHT BET	May 03	MLB [972] TEXAS RANGERS -120 [Action]	600.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245439200
STRAIGHT BET	May 03	MLB [979] LOS ANGELES ANGELS -140 [Action]	700.00 USD / 500.00 USD

Playing on the Dodgers too. No line yet.

The Suns in a reasonable cross sports parlay which obviously won’t count on the record.

WagerTypeARLAY (5 TEAMS)
Date:	Team:
May 03	NBA [522] BOSTON CELTICS -530
May 04	NBA [526] GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS -210
May 05	NBA [532] PHOENIX SUNS -170
May 03	SOC [200170] LIVERPOOL -395
May 03	SOC [200174] MANCHESTER CITY -500
Risking 500 USD To Win 1595 USD

jng · May 3, 2023

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking / To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	May 03	MLB [952] LOS ANGELES DODGERS -105 [Action]	525.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245441487

jng · May 4, 2023

Wednesday was 3-2 minus about half unit and total is plus one
The parlay is alive needing a Warriors win tonight.

THURSDAY

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	May 04	MLB [904] COLORADO ROCKIES +130 [Action]	500.00 USD / 650.00 USD	245484666
STRAIGHT BET	May 04	MLB [908] CHICAGO WHITE SOX +115 [Action]	500.00 USD / 575.00 USD	245484667
STRAIGHT BET	May 04	MLB [911] SEATTLE MARINERS -1?-150 [G KIRBY -R/D RUCINSKI -R]	750.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245484668
STRAIGHT BET	May 04	MLB [914] BOSTON RED SOX +150 [Action]	500.00 USD / 750.00 USD	245484669
STRAIGHT BET	May 04	MLB [918] TAMPA BAY RAYS -190 [Action]	950.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245484670
STRAIGHT BET	May 04	MLB [919] LOS ANGELES ANGELS +130 [Action]	500.00 USD / 650.00 USD	245484671

jng · May 5, 2023

Thursday was good. 5-1 plus five units cuz of nice dog winners. Total is now plus six. The parlay closes with a Suns win Friday. Hedge? Dunno.

FRIDAY

Big dog day

No LAA line yet

WagerType:	Date:	Team:	Risking/ To Win	Ticket#:
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [952] CHICAGO CUBS -160 [Action]	800.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245520863
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [953] COLORADO ROCKIES +200 [Action]	500.00 USD / 1000.00 USD	245520864
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [955] WASHINGTON NATIONALS +166 [Action]	500.00 USD / 830.00 USD	245520865
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [957] LOS ANGELES DODGERS -115 [Action]	575.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245520866
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [960] SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS +130 [Action]	500.00 USD / 650.00 USD	245520867
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [962] TAMPA BAY RAYS -184 [Action]	920.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245520868
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [966] KANSAS CITY ROYALS -147 [Action]	735.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245520869
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [970] SEATTLE MARINERS -140 [Action]	700.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245520870
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [975] BOSTON RED SOX +150 [Action]	500.00 USD / 750.00 USD	245520871
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [978] ATLANTA BRAVES -1?-105 [D KREMER -R/M FRIED -L]	525.00 USD / 500.00 USD	245520872
STRAIGHT BET	May 05	MLB [979] DETROIT TIGERS +193 [Action]	500.00 USD / 965.00 USD	2

W3 and L3 Streaks

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