WCW

[Smitty]

Cleveland/Houston

Neither team has much of a run game, as both average under 4 yards/carry. So who do you trust... "Is he elite" Joe Flacco or the rookie CJ Stroud? Flacco has gotten a lot of attention for his 13 TDs which, in 5 games, is more than the NY Jets had all season. But Flacco has also thrown 8 INTs in those 5 games. That said, I'm still backing the Browns because the best unit on the field is going to be the Browns' defense. Cleveland led the league, allowing 165 yards/game through the air and they are just behind Baltimore, giving up 5.9 yards/att. Only 3 teams allowed more than Houston's 7.7 yards/att.

These teams just played Christmas Eve. Cleveland rolled, 36-22, in a game that was 36-7 in the 4th quarter. Stroud was out that game. Amari Cooper had... oh, a fair game. 11 catches on 15 targets for 265 yards and 2 TDs. Kinda interesting that Cooper's receptions total for this game is 5.5 and the under is -145. Gonna go out on a limb here and say Houston will pay some attention to Cooper.

*side note* For a while now, one of the easiest ways to make money has been to bet all the games under the total the first weekend of the playoffs. But a lot of things that normally work have not been working this year. Something to keep an eye on.

Cleveland (-2) 6 units
Under (44.5) 4 units
Cooper under (5.5) receptions 8.7 to win 6
Njoku over (5.5) receptions 6.9 to win 6. Njoku had 6 catches on 9 targets in the first matchup, and he's a logical candidate to pick up the slack when Houston puts 6 defenders on Cooper. In Flacco's first game, Njoku had 2 catches on 6 targets. Their last 4 games? 28 catches on 39 targets. 39 targets!! And he had at least 6 catches in each of those games.
Jerome Ford over (2.5) receptions 7 to win 6. Another logical recipient of the check-downs when Cooper is covered by the entire city of Houston.

 

[Smitty]

Peacock Game

Congratulations, NFL, you managed to fuck both the fans attending the game AND the fans at home. While it ain't gonna be WARM during the day in KC, the real feel will be about 12 degrees warmer than it's gonna be at night. But, no, let's play the night game outdoors in KC in January and the dome game in Houston in the afternoon. I get it... at least on paper, this is the better game. Gotta get it in prime time. BUT... the game is on Peacock. So they don't give a fuck about ratings. They're just trying to milk more money out of fans. I truly wish once, just once, fans would actually boycott a game like this when the NFL is sending them a big FUCK YOU. Just one time, and it would send a message. Alright, I could go on about how much I hate watching sports via streaming, but I've ranted long enough.

Anyway, I have more of an opinion about the fuckery* of this game than I do on the game itself.

Gotta believe in this cold, the run game is going to be key. Miami led the league, averaging 5.1 yards/carry. However, Mostert is questionable with his knee/ankle injury. Not gonna be the best weather for someone coming back from a leg injury. Miami was very good against the run, allowing 3.8 yards/carry. But that was mostly with Chubb. They are currently Chubbless. This feels like a big game for Pacheco. He runs hard, which is exactly the kind of guy defenders hate tackling on a day like this.

Here's a list of every team Miami beat this year:

LA Chargers
New England (twice)
Denver
NY Giants
Carolina
Las Vegas
NY Jets (twice)
Washington
Dallas (the other "good" team in the league that can't beat a good team)

Read through that list. Let it sink in. That's a list of bad teams right there.

Miami played 4 of their last 5 games at home. They traveled to Baltimore 12/31 and gave up 56 points. And it was in the 40's that day. Not that the Chiefs are used to these temps, but the fellas from Miami are gonna be FEELING it.

Oh, and the Dolphins absolutely have to have in the back of their heads... "if we hadn't blown our lead in the division, we'd be home this weekend instead of playing in this shit."

All that said... I don't think I can take the Chiefs as a favorite here. I simply don't trust them to score that many points.

At least for now, this is all I got.

Under (43.5) 2 units
Pacheco over (66.5) rushing yards 4.6 to win 4
Pacheco over (90.5) rushing + receiving yards 4.6 to win 4

*Jack, I respect your spellcheck. It accepts "fuckery" as a real word.

 

[yyz]

2007

Brett Favre's last game for Green Bay. Night game lost to fucking Giants as a 10 point favorite.

Never been any colder in my life.

Last game I attended, and dumped my season tickets a few years later.

 

[Smitty]

2007

Brett Favre's last game for Green Bay. Night game lost to fucking Giants as a 10 point favorite.

Never been any colder in my life.

Last game I attended, and dumped my season tickets a few years later.

season tickets... another area where fans get fucked. forcing preseason games down your throat is bullshit.

 

[Smitty]

funny thing is, i almost posted this as a play.



the props saved my ass that game.

 

[rocky mountain]

funny thing is, i almost posted this as a play.

View attachment 6966312

the props saved my ass that game.

Your props were astute! Happened as you predicted, impressive.

 

[Smitty]

Your props were astute! Happened as you predicted, impressive.

if andy reid wasn't such a dipshit (sorry, yes, he's still an idiot), pacheco would have easily gone over both numbers. i think he was over 50 yards in the first quarter, and then got 2 or 3 touches in the second quarter. and about the same in the 3rd, as they totally lost momentum in the run game. at halftime, pacheco's live rushing total was 110 yards. even the oddsmakers couldn't believe reid would just forget about the one thing that was consistently working.

 

[rocky mountain]

if andy reid wasn't such a dipshit (sorry, yes, he's still an idiot), pacheco would have easily gone over both numbers. i think he was over 50 yards in the first quarter, and then got 2 or 3 touches in the second quarter. and about the same in the 3rd, as they totally lost momentum in the run game. at halftime, pacheco's live rushing total was 110 yards. even the oddsmakers couldn't believe reid would just forget about the one thing that was consistently working.

I was watching your props and saw that 110 yards live flash. He was trying to hook up Mahommes with some more playoff history, TD's yardage etc probably, they have a string love affair, and thats understandable. Mahommes is a winner, his snap cadence sounds annoy the shit out of me for some reason though...

 

[rocky mountain]

What are you targetung today Smitty?

 

[Smitty]

Mike McCarthy Bowl

Seeing so much love for Dallas. Kinda surprising, since we all know how terrible Dallas is in the playoffs. But I get it... they're a different team at home. Well, let's do what we do, and take a look at who Dallas beat at home:

NYJ
New England
LAR (in October, when the Rams were still pretty bad)
NYG
Washington
Seattle (Dallas trailed in the 4th quarter)
Philly (when Philly couldn't beat anyone)
Detroit (yes, the game we all know Detroit really won)

So 4 of the worst teams in the NFL, another mediocre team, and 3 playoff teams. Although all 3 of those kinda have an asterisk next to them.

This is not a good GB pass defense. They are 20th, allowing 7.3 yards/att and 2nd-to-last with only 7 INTs all year. If Dak was ever going to have a good game in the playoffs, this looks like the defense to do it against.

Aaron Jones has found the fountain of youth the last 3 games. 63 carries for 358 yards (5.7/carry). They are going to need a big game from him to take some pressure off Jordan Love.

Ok, this is how bad Dak is... I trust Jordan Love in a playoff game more than I trust Dak. And here's how bad Mike McCarthy is.... I trust the Bears' coach (Eberflus? I don't even care enough to look it up.) more than I trust McCarthy.

I am 100% betting AGAINST Dallas, not ON Green Bay.

GB (+7) 5 to win 5.1
GB (ML) 2 to win 5.5
GB 1H (+4.5) 4.2 to win 4
Under (51.5) 2 units.
Aaron Jones over (75.5) rushing yards 6.9 to win 6
Aaron Jones most rushing yards in the game 9.8 to win 8

I'm waiting to see a line on Jordan Love rushing yards. I think he'll be forced to take off a few times, and he's good enough to get some yards. Right on cue, it just popped up.

Love over (8.5) rushing yards 5 to win 4. Just hope I don't lose this when he's kneeling down at the end of the game.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Smitty, great write-ups. I was at a family reunion most of the day yesterday and just seeing this thread today!

I almost never watch these days. Just play fantasy using stats and will bet on games here and there. I remember thinking over 10-15 years ago....they've turned every game into a super bowl. What I mean is all the stoppages and commercials and advertising etc. There's no flow to the game. Touchdown, extra point, commercials, kickoff, commercials, come back and pan around the stadium while advertising. 3 plays and if you're lucky not to have an injury or review, punt, commercials. It's awful.

And I ended up going to watch UNC/NCSU Sat after Thanksgiving. Sure enough they make it a night game. I assume they did it b/c they figured students/fans might be getting back from Thanksgiving and more would be around if they waited til 8pm. It was absolutely miserable b/c it was so cold not to mention a horrible game. Froze my ass off. (I only went b/c my niece and nephew were in town and they had never been to a game). Afternoon game wouldn't have been near as cold.

To tie those 2 thoughts together. It's brutally cold when it doesn't have to be....and every tv timeout is like 5 mins of just wasted time being cold and doing nothing. Oh but wait, every single timeout has some stupid shit going on in the end zone. I don't mind some of it, like honoring people or whatever. But it's just overkill. A potato sack race, stuff like that...b/c the masses have such short attention spans and they must be entertained every single second.

The problem is...most people love it and think that it's never been better. I look at it and see games that looked like their scripted/rigged. I see the fans getting shit on in so many ways. I see a product that is unwatchable but it's a game that I've loved my entire life. It's really tough. It's a little easier to watch multiple games at the same time and/or red zone. But to try and watch one game, it's brutal. My family was trying to find the game last night and then a couple of us realized it was on Peacock. We all just said wow how greedy can they get. I wish everyone would boycott but that will never happen. Anyway, there's a long rant but I appreciate the entire thread and feel the same as you!

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Also....I think they do it different for college and NFL as far as QB running but not sure. Or at least as far as sacks go for team rushing.

If Love kneels down, is that a loss of one rushing yard for his stats? I guess it would be since it's not counted as a sack but I never really thought about it....and I think about a lot of stuff like that over the years lol

 

[rocky mountain]

Mike McCarthy Bowl

Seeing so much love for Dallas. Kinda surprising, since we all know how terrible Dallas is in the playoffs. But I get it... they're a different team at home. Well, let's do what we do, and take a look at who Dallas beat at home:

NYJ
New England
LAR (in October, when the Rams were still pretty bad)
NYG
Washington
Seattle (Dallas trailed in the 4th quarter)
Philly (when Philly couldn't beat anyone)
Detroit (yes, the game we all know Detroit really won)

So 4 of the worst teams in the NFL, another mediocre team, and 3 playoff teams. Although all 3 of those kinda have an asterisk next to them.

This is not a good GB pass defense. They are 20th, allowing 7.3 yards/att and 2nd-to-last with only 7 INTs all year. If Dak was ever going to have a good game in the playoffs, this looks like the defense to do it against.

Aaron Jones has found the fountain of youth the last 3 games. 63 carries for 358 yards (5.7/carry). They are going to need a big game from him to take some pressure off Jordan Love.

Ok, this is how bad Dak is... I trust Jordan Love in a playoff game more than I trust Dak. And here's how bad Mike McCarthy is.... I trust the Bears' coach (Eberflus? I don't even care enough to look it up.) more than I trust McCarthy.

I am 100% betting AGAINST Dallas, not ON Green Bay.

GB (+7) 5 to win 5.1
GB (ML) 2 to win 5.5
GB 1H (+4.5) 4.2 to win 4
Under (51.5) 2 units.
Aaron Jones over (75.5) rushing yards 6.9 to win 6
Aaron Jones most rushing yards in the game 9.8 to win 8

I'm waiting to see a line on Jordan Love rushing yards. I think he'll be forced to take off a few times, and he's good enough to get some yards. Right on cue, it just popped up.

Love over (8.5) rushing yards 5 to win 4. Just hope I don't lose this when he's kneeling down at the end of the game.

Damn Smitty , love the confidence!

 

[Smitty]

TJD.... yeah, they absolutely fuck the fans at the games. And I couldn't agree more... to sit and watch one NFL game is painful. I'm down to one game a year... the Super Bowl. I watch the Red Zone channel every Sunday and maybe, MAYBE if there's a game i have a lot of money on that's available on another channel, I'll put it on on the PIP. I've only been to one NFL game live (Dallas at Carolina on Christmas Eve.... wow, maybe 15 years ago?) and vowed never again. Boring as hell. At least at a big college game, there's a lot of life to the crowd.

The flip side... until fans really do stand up for themselves, the NFL has zero reason to change. I don't feel bad for anyone who is willing to shell out $1,000 to bring a (very small) family to a game. People need to stop bitching about the high cost of tickets/parking/food/beer and, for once, refuse to pay that kind of money. Just don't go to games. Especially if it's a team that consistently puts a shitty product on the field.

Ok, rant over. We're getting close to kickoff and I still gotta take a look at the late game.

 

[Smitty]

Damn Smitty , love the confidence!

Ha. Honestly, I'm just betting against Dallas because... it's Dallas (and Dak, and McCarthy) in the playoffs. I think GB has a reasonable chance to win, just because Dallas can always find a way to lose.

I'm most confident (obviously) in that Aaron Jones bet to have the most yards in the game. Dallas hardly bothers to run the ball (although they might if they have a solid lead late in the game, which is my biggest concern). And Jones has been awesome the last 3 games.

 

[rocky mountain]

Ha. Honestly, I'm just betting against Dallas because... it's Dallas (and Dak, and McCarthy) in the playoffs. I think GB has a reasonable chance to win, just because Dallas can always find a way to lose.

I'm most confident (obviously) in that Aaron Jones bet to have the most yards in the game. Dallas hardly bothers to run the ball (although they might if they have a solid lead late in the game, which is my biggest concern). And Jones has been awesome the last 3 games.

I see that he's been skating down the field last three games. Makes sense and with sorta rookie QB in playoffs they will lean on him. Unless Cowboys are smart enough to try to take him away from their offense.

 

[Smitty]

LAR/Detroit

Gonna try to keep this one relatively short and simple. We'll see how that goes.

The whole fucking world is on the Rams. Most years, that means Detroit is basically a lock. But it's been a really weird year. I'm leaning towards Detroit on the ML, but I hate laying -155. Well, I hate laying -155 when I lose.

Detroit's pass defense is.... porous. I think Hutchinson is going to have to have a huge game getting after Stafford. He has 5 sacks in his last 2 games, so he's peaking at the right time. But most importantly, I think Detroit is going to need to keep Stafford off the field by controlling the game with the run. Obviously with Montgomery and Gibbs, they have the guys who can do that. They are 5th in the league, averaging 4.6 yards/carry (interesting side note... can you believe Arizona was #2, at 5.0 yards/carry?).

Sounds like LaPorta is playing, which is big for the Lions.

One other interesting factor, and one I haven't heard anyone talking about... today marks the return to the playoffs for.... drum roll please... Brett Maher!!!! Imagine the pressure, especially if he misses his first kick.

Ok, so everyone is on the dog and the over. That means either the fav or the under almost HAS to hit. Really don't love any of these, but here goes...

Detroit (ML) 3.1 to win 2
Under (53) 2 units
LaPorta TD 2 to win 3.3
Montgomery over (55.5) rushing yards 2.3 to win 2
Gibbs over (52.5) rushing yards 2.4 to win 2

 

[Old School]

Also....I think they do it different for college and NFL as far as QB running but not sure. Or at least as far as sacks go for team rushing.

If Love kneels down, is that a loss of one rushing yard for his stats? I guess it would be since it's not counted as a sack but I never really thought about it....and I think about a lot of stuff like that over the years lol

minus 1 yard for each knell out

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Good luck Smitty. I'm getting killed on NFL so far in playoffs but won a few college basketball over the weekend.

Won't ramble too much but will reply! I've been to 2 NFL games in my life. Vikings at Falcons back in 1996. And Jets at Panthers in 2013. Both were good experiences but a lot of that had to do w the group of friends I was with as well.

I've been to a ton of college football games over the years and for the most part me and my family go w/o tickets and see how cheap we can get in. Recently it's been a little different and I hate how much I paid for that UNC/NCSU ticket but like I say it was for my nephew and niece.

Last decade I've mainly watched the Super Bowl and that's it but I'll watch college football and go to games. I love the tradition and environment even just watching on tv. These days it's way more about the tailgating than the actual game but looking back it prob always was, I just didn't realize it. I tried to watch Bills/Chiefs playoff game last year I think it was. The one where there was like 4 scores in the last 2 minutes.

It was "exciting" and I think that was also the one where Romo was going crazy....but it wasn't real. Josh Allen running all around as if he's Mike Vick. Guys getting wide ass open on both sides when you know they're passing. And the last drive of regulation was the worst. No timeouts and maybe 13 seconds to go from the 25 into field goal range...and what happens? Kelce rumbles right down field unguarded, easy pitch and catch, and he falls forward right on the "field goal range" line. They spike it and kick sending it into overtime. Bull.....Shit....lol

But everyone I talked to said it was the greatest game ever and the greatest weekend of NFL ever b/c all 4 games came down to field goals. That's b/c it's rigged lol. I'm on Dallas right now so that's not helping either lol. Leaning Rams and the points but not sure yet.

 

[TouchdownJesus]

Old School.....thanks for the info!