Machine gun game for ya Smitty, smoking! Proptopia. Aaron Jones may run all the way back home untouched.
WCW
- Thread starter Smitty
- Start date
for the love of god, i don't understand why anybody would have bet dallas today, given their playoff history. and their coach. and their qb.
i'm guessing jerry jones was on the phone with belichick at halftime. of course, they're fucked until he sells the team. and/or dies.
they should just play dak during the regular season, then bring in a "closer" for the playoffs.
for a game i didn't know what to do with... yeah, i'm happy as fuck with the results. right down to playing the ML instead of laying the points. is it weird that i'm thinking about treating myself to something from the goldbelly pastrami sale? $50 for 2-4 sandwiches suddenly seems almost reasonable.
well, when things are going your way... i just saw montgomery ended up with 57 yards. i thought he fell short. woot woot!!
- Sep 1, 2012
- 9,688
- 655
- 113
oh, pastrami sandwiches for sure.
turns out, it was another $35 for shipping. AND I STILL GOT IT!!!
Congrats! I won on Rams +3 but lost small on the moneyline. I saw where they got to I think it was Detroit's 44 and had 3rd and 14. When I checked again pretty sure they had punted and Detroit ran out the clock. Might have been a long pass intercepted though, not sure.
I also got the Bruins ML in college bball so I listened to "I Love LA" by Randy Newman and then went to bed lol.
I also got the Bruins ML in college bball so I listened to "I Love LA" by Randy Newman and then went to bed lol.
IIRC, they punted and Detroit picked up a couple first downs.
Pitt/Buffalo
I'm really liking these games less and less as we move through the weekend.
I always laugh when these athletic qbs come into the league, have some initial success, everybody thinks they're awesome, and within a few years most people realize how bad they really are. We're just about at that point with Josh Allen. FFS, he wasn't accurate at Wyoming, he sure the hell ain't gonna be accurate in the NFL. Just another good running back with a strong arm who is not a good qb. He threw 18 INTs this year and fumbled 5 more times (losing 3), and that probably wasn't even his worst year!
Pittsburgh relies on a strong ground game with Harris and Warren. Warren actually had much better numbers this year (5.3 yards/carry vs 4.1 for Harris). But Harris was huge their last 2 games, running for 112 & 122 and 3 TDs. That was against 2 run defenses that are in the bottom 8 in the league, allowing 4.5 & 4.6 yards/carry. Well, don't look now, but Buffalo is 28th, allowing 4.6. I've never been a fan of Tomlin, but he's really no dumber than... well, just about every HC in the league. I'm counting on him to know they need to run the ball today. Rudolph has actually been really good since taking over, completing 74% of his passes with 3 TDs and 0 INTs, and averaging an impressive 9.7 yards/att. That said, he's still Mason Rudolph. And he's facing a solid Buffalo pass defense (even with all the injuries) that picked off 18 passes this year, 3rd in the league. If they pass more than they run, they're fucked. Oh, one more note on Harris... he's another big RB that defenders are going to hate tackling in frigid temps, and it looks like a real feel of 4° at kickoff.
The Bills finally have a little threat of a run game, as Cook averaged a decent 4.7 yards/carry, but he only found the end zone twice. Allen is still their primary TD scorer with 15 on the ground. Pittsburgh is 21st defensively, allowing 4.3 yards/carry. The Bills could have some success on the ground, if they actually stick with it. Pitt's pass defense is in the middle of the pack, giving up 7.3 yards/att while picking off 16 passes. Obviously the loss of TJ Watt is huge.
Ok, similar to the early game yesterday... I'm definitely not betting ON Pittsburgh... I'm betting against Buffalo. Neither team is all that good, this line is too high, and Allen is a turnover machine.
That said... when Buffalo jumps out to an early lead and Pittsburgh abandons the run... yeah, watch the Bills blow them out.
Pitt (+10) 2 units
Pitt (ML) 2 to win 7.5
Harris over (60.5) rushing yards 2.5 to win 2
Harris most rushing yds in game 1 to win 1.6
Warren over (59.5) rushing + rec yards 4.6 to win 4
Diggs under (67.5) rec yards 4.6 to win 4
Shakir over (34.5) rec yards 5.2 to win 4 (with Davis out, he's their big-play guy)
Pickens under (42.5) rec yards 6.9 to win 6
Allen TD 11.5 to win 10
Kincaid TD 1 to win 3
Knox TD 2 to win 12
Fuck, that's way too much for a game I don't like very much. And I like the next game even less.
I'm really liking these games less and less as we move through the weekend.
I always laugh when these athletic qbs come into the league, have some initial success, everybody thinks they're awesome, and within a few years most people realize how bad they really are. We're just about at that point with Josh Allen. FFS, he wasn't accurate at Wyoming, he sure the hell ain't gonna be accurate in the NFL. Just another good running back with a strong arm who is not a good qb. He threw 18 INTs this year and fumbled 5 more times (losing 3), and that probably wasn't even his worst year!
Pittsburgh relies on a strong ground game with Harris and Warren. Warren actually had much better numbers this year (5.3 yards/carry vs 4.1 for Harris). But Harris was huge their last 2 games, running for 112 & 122 and 3 TDs. That was against 2 run defenses that are in the bottom 8 in the league, allowing 4.5 & 4.6 yards/carry. Well, don't look now, but Buffalo is 28th, allowing 4.6. I've never been a fan of Tomlin, but he's really no dumber than... well, just about every HC in the league. I'm counting on him to know they need to run the ball today. Rudolph has actually been really good since taking over, completing 74% of his passes with 3 TDs and 0 INTs, and averaging an impressive 9.7 yards/att. That said, he's still Mason Rudolph. And he's facing a solid Buffalo pass defense (even with all the injuries) that picked off 18 passes this year, 3rd in the league. If they pass more than they run, they're fucked. Oh, one more note on Harris... he's another big RB that defenders are going to hate tackling in frigid temps, and it looks like a real feel of 4° at kickoff.
The Bills finally have a little threat of a run game, as Cook averaged a decent 4.7 yards/carry, but he only found the end zone twice. Allen is still their primary TD scorer with 15 on the ground. Pittsburgh is 21st defensively, allowing 4.3 yards/carry. The Bills could have some success on the ground, if they actually stick with it. Pitt's pass defense is in the middle of the pack, giving up 7.3 yards/att while picking off 16 passes. Obviously the loss of TJ Watt is huge.
Ok, similar to the early game yesterday... I'm definitely not betting ON Pittsburgh... I'm betting against Buffalo. Neither team is all that good, this line is too high, and Allen is a turnover machine.
That said... when Buffalo jumps out to an early lead and Pittsburgh abandons the run... yeah, watch the Bills blow them out.
Pitt (+10) 2 units
Pitt (ML) 2 to win 7.5
Harris over (60.5) rushing yards 2.5 to win 2
Harris most rushing yds in game 1 to win 1.6
Warren over (59.5) rushing + rec yards 4.6 to win 4
Diggs under (67.5) rec yards 4.6 to win 4
Shakir over (34.5) rec yards 5.2 to win 4 (with Davis out, he's their big-play guy)
Pickens under (42.5) rec yards 6.9 to win 6
Allen TD 11.5 to win 10
Kincaid TD 1 to win 3
Knox TD 2 to win 12
Fuck, that's way too much for a game I don't like very much. And I like the next game even less.
thank you. it's gonna come crashing down at some point. hopefully not until the last game, at the earliest.
if i just get TDs from allen & knox, i'll be happy.
I've seen these rolls before from you. Need the games to start your way to set your well thought out game plans, enjoy reading your breakdowns. Take it!
Philly/TB
Let me be perfectly clear... both of these teams are big bet-againsts for me. Philly is absolutely terrible right now. And there's zero reason to think they're going to magically snap out of it. However, Tampa (especially at home) isn't much (if any) better. If I had any discipline, I wouldn't bet this game. Nobody should bet this game. Philly will probably win by exactly 3, and most people will get a push, which feels appropriate for this game.
Ok, I'm going to try to keep this relatively brief, because I don't want to spend much time on this game.
I don't need to rehash how Philly finished the season. They are awful right now. TB went 4-4 at home, with wins over Chicago, Tennessee, Carolina, and Jacksonville (when the Jags were in free-fall). And they were blown out at home way back in Week 3 by... *checks notes*... the Philadelphia Eagles. That game wasn't as close as the 14-margin looks. Philly had almost 300 more yards and 15 more first downs. That was also the last game Philly had a 100-yard rusher, which is a little surprising, given how strong their run game was last year. Anyway, the decline of that run game is a big reason why Jalen Hurts has returned to Earth.
Really, no result would surprise me this game. Maybe Philly does get it rolling again. Doesn't seem likely. They might not even show up, like last week against the Giants. Or maybe this was all part of their plan to play in Tampa this week instead of Philadelphia. Kinda smart. Anyway, not a chance in hell I can trust Baker Mayfield in a playoff game. So only totals and props for me this game.
Philly hasn't scored much on the road all year. Here's their point total from each game, starting at the beginning of the season:
25
25
23
14
38 (at Washington, who gave up a ton of points at home to everyone)
21
13
17
10
Take out that Washington game, and that's 15 points/game the last 5.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay only gave up 17 points/game at home.
Under (43) 4 units
1H under (20.5) 4 units
Hurts TD 3 to win 2.4
Godwin over 54.5 rec yards 1.3 to win 1
Evans under 66.5 rec yards 4 to win 4
Goedert over 50.5 rec yards 2.4 to win 2
Let me be perfectly clear... both of these teams are big bet-againsts for me. Philly is absolutely terrible right now. And there's zero reason to think they're going to magically snap out of it. However, Tampa (especially at home) isn't much (if any) better. If I had any discipline, I wouldn't bet this game. Nobody should bet this game. Philly will probably win by exactly 3, and most people will get a push, which feels appropriate for this game.
Ok, I'm going to try to keep this relatively brief, because I don't want to spend much time on this game.
I don't need to rehash how Philly finished the season. They are awful right now. TB went 4-4 at home, with wins over Chicago, Tennessee, Carolina, and Jacksonville (when the Jags were in free-fall). And they were blown out at home way back in Week 3 by... *checks notes*... the Philadelphia Eagles. That game wasn't as close as the 14-margin looks. Philly had almost 300 more yards and 15 more first downs. That was also the last game Philly had a 100-yard rusher, which is a little surprising, given how strong their run game was last year. Anyway, the decline of that run game is a big reason why Jalen Hurts has returned to Earth.
Really, no result would surprise me this game. Maybe Philly does get it rolling again. Doesn't seem likely. They might not even show up, like last week against the Giants. Or maybe this was all part of their plan to play in Tampa this week instead of Philadelphia. Kinda smart. Anyway, not a chance in hell I can trust Baker Mayfield in a playoff game. So only totals and props for me this game.
Philly hasn't scored much on the road all year. Here's their point total from each game, starting at the beginning of the season:
25
25
23
14
38 (at Washington, who gave up a ton of points at home to everyone)
21
13
17
10
Take out that Washington game, and that's 15 points/game the last 5.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay only gave up 17 points/game at home.
Under (43) 4 units
1H under (20.5) 4 units
Hurts TD 3 to win 2.4
Godwin over 54.5 rec yards 1.3 to win 1
Evans under 66.5 rec yards 4 to win 4
Goedert over 50.5 rec yards 2.4 to win 2
Well, that's exciting. RM, I just needed the one. I had a feeling they'd try to get him one.
AND KINCAID??? ARE YOU KIDDING ME??? I haven't even started watching the game yet.
