i was thinking about using my actual name as the thread header...throw everyone for a loop...
i liked the sound of it...
"sebastian atherton-barkwith`s picks""
rip....can the bills go 0-16?//////
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weasel picks
- Thread starter gardenweasel
- Start date
i was thinking about using my actual name as the thread header...throw everyone for a loop...
i liked the sound of it...
"sebastian atherton-barkwith`s picks""
rip....can the bills go 0-16?//////
i`m not touchy,bub..you`re my dude...:0074 ...usually happy when lines move against me...
theres a whole lot of k.c. love out there,...personally, i think they`re improved but this is a really bad spot for them....indy`s not taking any prisoners after starting 2-2...
k.c. can`t count on 2 special teams t.d.`s every week...indy needs to stop the running game and make them throw...their qb`s highly overrated...i actually would have kept thigpen if i were them....that guy needs a break...he can play...
this could get ugly,imo...
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I have Indy in a 6 point tease with the Ravens so I agree.
also....
Broncos vs Ravens = Ravens vs Colts
can't beat 'em for some reason.
week 6...unit record:..10-7.....1/2 unit record...2-1
nixed 2 winning plays late last week and paid the price(indy and oakland)...
this looks like the toughest week thus far...so many injuries...so many talented teams playing like shit...
observations....
1)philly is getting NO respect.....NADA...they have some injuries along the lines...but in truth,atlanta isn`t quite as good as they`re cracked up to be...
""Atlanta is 17th in YPR and 21st in yards/pass attempt (6.6). On the defensive end, they are 16th versus the run and 20th versus the pass (7.1 yards/pass attempt). Not breaking the top 10 in any of these statistical categories""....
everywhere i look,people are almost exclusively picking atlanta....line down to philly-1...they might just be the dog by gametime...
2)jets off of 4 wins s.u. and against the spread...pretty solid,eh?.....coming off their big monday night win....now they`re travelling cross country to play in the thin air at denver...denver coming home off 2 road games...
the jet defense is tough...but revis is still hobbled by the hammy and their pass defense only ranks 23rd yielding 235 ypg....
and from what i understand,denver can throw the rock.....
3)...g.b. is dead and buried...so many injuries....looked like shit last week folding late on the road..how could they possibly win here?...+
4)chicago-6...seattle`s a god-awful mess on the road...chicago`s gonna have a massive offensive bounce back with cutler after last week`s ridiculous offensive performance under
5)half-unit on new england-2.5.....i hope i`m wrong...everybody and their brother loveds the ravens....but despite not having much on the injured list,they have key guys banged up and playing(ngata and rice to name a few)....
don`t ake sense play...n.e. better without moss...addition by suntraction
...they follow miami with minny,the jets and dallas....
they should have a sense of urgency here,you`d think...
:grins:
not playing these...yet...just wanted to post some thoughts...
i`ll come back and confirm before gametime...
g.l.
edit...final plays..one unit unless specified
1)philly-1
2)denver+4(-120)
3)g.b.-3.....
4)chicago-6....seattle a mess on the road....chicago was horrible on offense last week...they bounce back...blow-out...
5)half unit on new england -2.5...(rooting to lose...don`t tell jack)
nixed 2 winning plays late last week and paid the price(indy and oakland)...
this looks like the toughest week thus far...so many injuries...so many talented teams playing like shit...
observations....
1)philly is getting NO respect.....NADA...they have some injuries along the lines...but in truth,atlanta isn`t quite as good as they`re cracked up to be...
""Atlanta is 17th in YPR and 21st in yards/pass attempt (6.6). On the defensive end, they are 16th versus the run and 20th versus the pass (7.1 yards/pass attempt). Not breaking the top 10 in any of these statistical categories""....
everywhere i look,people are almost exclusively picking atlanta....line down to philly-1...they might just be the dog by gametime...
2)jets off of 4 wins s.u. and against the spread...pretty solid,eh?.....coming off their big monday night win....now they`re travelling cross country to play in the thin air at denver...denver coming home off 2 road games...
the jet defense is tough...but revis is still hobbled by the hammy and their pass defense only ranks 23rd yielding 235 ypg....
and from what i understand,denver can throw the rock.....
3)...g.b. is dead and buried...so many injuries....looked like shit last week folding late on the road..how could they possibly win here?...+
4)chicago-6...seattle`s a god-awful mess on the road...chicago`s gonna have a massive offensive bounce back with cutler after last week`s ridiculous offensive performance under
5)half-unit on new england-2.5.....i hope i`m wrong...everybody and their brother loveds the ravens....but despite not having much on the injured list,they have key guys banged up and playing(ngata and rice to name a few)....
don`t ake sense play...n.e. better without moss...addition by suntraction
...they follow miami with minny,the jets and dallas....
they should have a sense of urgency here,you`d think...
:grins:
not playing these...yet...just wanted to post some thoughts...
i`ll come back and confirm before gametime...
g.l.
edit...final plays..one unit unless specified
1)philly-1
2)denver+4(-120)
3)g.b.-3.....
4)chicago-6....seattle a mess on the road....chicago was horrible on offense last week...they bounce back...blow-out...
5)half unit on new england -2.5...(rooting to lose...don`t tell jack)
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- Mar 19, 2006
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Atlanta is suspect. Excellent points. They could easily be 1-4 had it not been for a missed fg, a stripped ball in the last seconds, and a dropped pass in the endzone.
I agree with you points on Atlanta.
Best of luck.
I agree with you points on Atlanta.
Best of luck.
11-9-1......and 3-1 half unit plays...
last week was just brutal...i`m talking about the jets/denver....40 yard pass interference on 4th down?...basically a hail mary....a winner turns into a push...and a side money line doggie screws the pooch...
went 1-2-1 last week(not including the half unit winner on new england...and the small side money line doggie losing on a wing and a prayer)....just torture..
subject to change(1 unit unless specified otherwise)...
....................................................
this board ain`t dead !!
ONE UNIT EACH
1)da` bears-2.5(-125..there was -3 at even...but i want that half point moving off the key number)....i`m going with the anti-public play...I SEE <s> dead people </s> LINE VALUE here.....bears off a straight up home loss as 6 pt faves..and the public kicks em to the curb..perfect set-up,imo...
2)k.c.-9....."laying 9 with k.c.,wease?..that`s mind bottling !"..well..that`s right...and D.O.B.A(dead on balls accurate) !...
who`s qb`ing for the jags?....trent or bouman?...bouman hasn`t taken a snap since the beatles became known(the life form,not the group)...:rimshot ..take your pick...neither belongs in the nfl...
k.c. off back to back road losses...i honestly think this is a good football team that`s been starved for success....and i think they do a job on the jags...division is up for grabs...
3)chargers-2.5(-115)
4)dallas-3
5)carolina+3(-120)
6)6 PT TEASER...seahags-1/atl-cincy under 49....
big week for weasel off the bullshit denver/push debacle...that was capped correctly....expecting no b.s. this week....my ancestors didn`t crawl their way out of the swamp so i could live on salad.....:rant2:
last week was just brutal...i`m talking about the jets/denver....40 yard pass interference on 4th down?...basically a hail mary....a winner turns into a push...and a side money line doggie screws the pooch...
went 1-2-1 last week(not including the half unit winner on new england...and the small side money line doggie losing on a wing and a prayer)....just torture..
subject to change(1 unit unless specified otherwise)...
....................................................
this board ain`t dead !!
ONE UNIT EACH
1)da` bears-2.5(-125..there was -3 at even...but i want that half point moving off the key number)....i`m going with the anti-public play...I SEE <s> dead people </s> LINE VALUE here.....bears off a straight up home loss as 6 pt faves..and the public kicks em to the curb..perfect set-up,imo...
2)k.c.-9....."laying 9 with k.c.,wease?..that`s mind bottling !"..well..that`s right...and D.O.B.A(dead on balls accurate) !...
who`s qb`ing for the jags?....trent or bouman?...bouman hasn`t taken a snap since the beatles became known(the life form,not the group)...:rimshot ..take your pick...neither belongs in the nfl...
k.c. off back to back road losses...i honestly think this is a good football team that`s been starved for success....and i think they do a job on the jags...division is up for grabs...
3)chargers-2.5(-115)
4)dallas-3
5)carolina+3(-120)
6)6 PT TEASER...seahags-1/atl-cincy under 49....
big week for weasel off the bullshit denver/push debacle...that was capped correctly....expecting no b.s. this week....my ancestors didn`t crawl their way out of the swamp so i could live on salad.....:rant2:
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13-13-1/one unit....3-1/ half unit....
could easily be 15-11-1....good lord...last 2 weeks we have taken downright brutal losses with denver getting zapped on a hail mary pass interference with the clock running out and chicago (cutler) giving the game away vs the redskins(6 turnovers...5 from cutler) at the most inopportune times...not to mention a t.d. that the refs failed to get right....maybe thee most disheartening loss in recent memory....
just ridiculous...
was gonna take a week off from getting buggered but what`s the real difference between getting buggered on a weekly or semi-weekly basis?.....would it aid in the healing?....not really....those two left a permanent mark.......so we move onward....
one unit....
1)detroit-2.....we have a 1-5 team getting a rusty qb back this week vs a 4-3 team that seems to pull undeserved wins out of their asses like anal beads......so why detroit as the fave?...you`d hope it would be to encourage public money on the skins....checked some consensus sites and the line apparently moved from 1-2.5 at some outs despite the skins being roughly a 70% public play(these %/ stats are based on what i`ve seen..not written in stone).....better offense at home..a goose from returning stafford.....i like schwartz...i believe if detroit can stay healthy,they are a competitive team......
det off the bye week...should be fresh...washington in close,hard fought games week after week...
2)..jets-6...too many key injuries for the pack....too much talent in the defensive backfield for the jets...they will blitz rodgers unmercifully ....they can cover the pack`s receivers(no finley...driver hobbled)...and tomlinson and greene will beatdown an already beatdown packer front 7....that viking game last week was physical....jets healthy after the bye...green bay,not so much...
a slow methodical beating...if sanchez continues to be careful with the ball...
3)teaser...dolphins+11.5/steelers+11.5/jets +4....
half unit ..........
4)cincy pick....this team underachieves...the talent is there....well rounded offense...decent defense....
the problem?...in a word,"palmer"...
he showed some life last week(most times when it basically didn`t matter...aftter they closed the gap and took the lead,palmer basically reverted back to form)...
still,i watched this team physically beat the poop out of the ravens earlier in the season...thay`re talented...
there are some strong trends favoring the hapless bengals here.(3 straight losses straight up and against the spread and one based on a statitistical breakdown)...
but basically,it boils down to palmer...this guy`s becoming a laughing stock in cincy...
70% on the phins....why not?...is it gonna hurt more that the bears last week?....couldn`t possibly...
5)vikings +7....i`m crazy...i know...favre will make a perfunctory appearance to keep the streak alive...and he`ll be gone relatively early on....we all know this...
but theres so much talent on this viking team...and i really have issues with the pats...they should have lost to the the ravens...and san diego handed the game to the pats last week on a platinum platter...this team has issues.imo...they`re winning with smoke and mirrors....a bit of a sham...
6)new orleans pick....71% on the squeelers....best team in football.....saints a mash unit......yada yada...
pitt on second of 3 consecutive road games...they`ve been winning the turnover battle......i expect the saints to handle the ball better this week...
aw,f-ck it..let`s face it...it`s a reach..teams going in different directions...
but,why not?..the games i cap correctly lose on flukes...
7)s.d.-3.5...i usually love the titans in a spot like this...but with young hobbled and collins out,it`s a tough sell for me...
san diego is statitiscally top drawer...they`re 14th in ypr and 1st in yppa.... and shockingly, they`re 3rd in ypr on defense and 1st in yppa on defense....
shouldn`t these numbers translate into a win at some point?...probably not..expect their shitty special teams to bite em on the ass...
8) az-3...ar182 is on the scene...he likes em...i`ll ride along...
....................................
throwing shit against the wall because capping games correctly doesn`t seem to bring home the bacon...
after the last 2 weeks,i feel like i`d have trouble supervising a one car funeral...tread lightly...
could easily be 15-11-1....good lord...last 2 weeks we have taken downright brutal losses with denver getting zapped on a hail mary pass interference with the clock running out and chicago (cutler) giving the game away vs the redskins(6 turnovers...5 from cutler) at the most inopportune times...not to mention a t.d. that the refs failed to get right....maybe thee most disheartening loss in recent memory....
just ridiculous...
was gonna take a week off from getting buggered but what`s the real difference between getting buggered on a weekly or semi-weekly basis?.....would it aid in the healing?....not really....those two left a permanent mark.......so we move onward....
one unit....
1)detroit-2.....we have a 1-5 team getting a rusty qb back this week vs a 4-3 team that seems to pull undeserved wins out of their asses like anal beads......so why detroit as the fave?...you`d hope it would be to encourage public money on the skins....checked some consensus sites and the line apparently moved from 1-2.5 at some outs despite the skins being roughly a 70% public play(these %/ stats are based on what i`ve seen..not written in stone).....better offense at home..a goose from returning stafford.....i like schwartz...i believe if detroit can stay healthy,they are a competitive team......
det off the bye week...should be fresh...washington in close,hard fought games week after week...
2)..jets-6...too many key injuries for the pack....too much talent in the defensive backfield for the jets...they will blitz rodgers unmercifully ....they can cover the pack`s receivers(no finley...driver hobbled)...and tomlinson and greene will beatdown an already beatdown packer front 7....that viking game last week was physical....jets healthy after the bye...green bay,not so much...
a slow methodical beating...if sanchez continues to be careful with the ball...
3)teaser...dolphins+11.5/steelers+11.5/jets +4....
half unit ..........
4)cincy pick....this team underachieves...the talent is there....well rounded offense...decent defense....
the problem?...in a word,"palmer"...
he showed some life last week(most times when it basically didn`t matter...aftter they closed the gap and took the lead,palmer basically reverted back to form)...
still,i watched this team physically beat the poop out of the ravens earlier in the season...thay`re talented...
there are some strong trends favoring the hapless bengals here.(3 straight losses straight up and against the spread and one based on a statitistical breakdown)...
but basically,it boils down to palmer...this guy`s becoming a laughing stock in cincy...
70% on the phins....why not?...is it gonna hurt more that the bears last week?....couldn`t possibly...
5)vikings +7....i`m crazy...i know...favre will make a perfunctory appearance to keep the streak alive...and he`ll be gone relatively early on....we all know this...
but theres so much talent on this viking team...and i really have issues with the pats...they should have lost to the the ravens...and san diego handed the game to the pats last week on a platinum platter...this team has issues.imo...they`re winning with smoke and mirrors....a bit of a sham...
6)new orleans pick....71% on the squeelers....best team in football.....saints a mash unit......yada yada...
pitt on second of 3 consecutive road games...they`ve been winning the turnover battle......i expect the saints to handle the ball better this week...
aw,f-ck it..let`s face it...it`s a reach..teams going in different directions...
but,why not?..the games i cap correctly lose on flukes...
7)s.d.-3.5...i usually love the titans in a spot like this...but with young hobbled and collins out,it`s a tough sell for me...
san diego is statitiscally top drawer...they`re 14th in ypr and 1st in yppa.... and shockingly, they`re 3rd in ypr on defense and 1st in yppa on defense....
shouldn`t these numbers translate into a win at some point?...probably not..expect their shitty special teams to bite em on the ass...
8) az-3...ar182 is on the scene...he likes em...i`ll ride along...
....................................
throwing shit against the wall because capping games correctly doesn`t seem to bring home the bacon...
after the last 2 weeks,i feel like i`d have trouble supervising a one car funeral...tread lightly...
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14-15-1 one unit(ugh)...5-4 half unit...
stumbling around like a derelict huffing paint in a 7/11 parking lot.....
taking a shot of grain alcohol tonight,and plowing on...here we go...
1)cincy +5...the line should go up)...everybody abandoning the sinking ship....while weasel is taking the monday night home doggie..."Monday night divisional home underdogs of less than 7 points with losing records (Cinci) are 17-4 ATS against a visitor that is .500 or better, including 15-0 ATS if the road team is not off consecutive victories (Pitt)."....
say whaa??...
2)cleve +4.5(brobury).....i still say n.e. is overrated...yeah i know that mccoy is starting....i`m hoping that wallace will be available... cleveland is no dog...they hang in practically every game...n.e. winning tight game after tight game...brownies off the bye.....
i`ll take the points...
3)detroit +6(brobury)...6-1 vs the spread....public expecting big jet bounceback......should be a HUGE public play...we`ll see tomorrow...
4) tease...vikes-1.5/ravens-1
half units
1)buff +3..(brobury)....
2)phins+5(brobury)
don`t taze me,doggies !!
stumbling around like a derelict huffing paint in a 7/11 parking lot.....
taking a shot of grain alcohol tonight,and plowing on...here we go...
1)cincy +5...the line should go up)...everybody abandoning the sinking ship....while weasel is taking the monday night home doggie..."Monday night divisional home underdogs of less than 7 points with losing records (Cinci) are 17-4 ATS against a visitor that is .500 or better, including 15-0 ATS if the road team is not off consecutive victories (Pitt)."....
say whaa??...
2)cleve +4.5(brobury).....i still say n.e. is overrated...yeah i know that mccoy is starting....i`m hoping that wallace will be available... cleveland is no dog...they hang in practically every game...n.e. winning tight game after tight game...brownies off the bye.....
i`ll take the points...
3)detroit +6(brobury)...6-1 vs the spread....public expecting big jet bounceback......should be a HUGE public play...we`ll see tomorrow...
4) tease...vikes-1.5/ravens-1
half units
1)buff +3..(brobury)....
2)phins+5(brobury)
don`t taze me,doggies !!
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i kinda like the way you think (sometimes) gw. def give you credit for being one of the quickest (not literally) peoples up in here... suffice, i like some your plays, not soo much others. i'll pass along my 2c and leave it at that- wishing you luck with whatever you choose.
miami is on a 3-0 ats run, and are undefeated ATS on the road. balt off rest (even though they're your team) i like balt's chances here. warriors the phins are for sure, though balt hasnt looked like played a solid game throughout. they shoulda won against pats.... shoulda beat a very game buff squad by more... perhaps defense isnt up to par as past squads?... gotta love their HC Sparano though... he is absolutely doin it the right way imo.
i like balt there. see a complete game this wk
solid stat with cinci you got there. 2-5 SU and ATS and 0-4 L4. if they dont win, they should cover. gettin cb (and Safety back) shoudl soildify defense somewhat-with you on that one.
couldnt agree more with NE / CLV thoughts.... wouldnt be surprised for brownies win here.
DET is 4-0 L4 ATS and perfect ATS at home TY (3-0)-they're improving for sure but just looks to be bad spot imo. a trend (courtesy pwrswp):
play on any non-div rd team that was shoutout at home LW '92-'09 15-3 play on: JETS
sooo... butting heads on two--and with you the others. wanna see you cash-and sweep the board. heres hoping you do just that. good luck :0074
miami is on a 3-0 ats run, and are undefeated ATS on the road. balt off rest (even though they're your team) i like balt's chances here. warriors the phins are for sure, though balt hasnt looked like played a solid game throughout. they shoulda won against pats.... shoulda beat a very game buff squad by more... perhaps defense isnt up to par as past squads?... gotta love their HC Sparano though... he is absolutely doin it the right way imo.
i like balt there. see a complete game this wk
solid stat with cinci you got there. 2-5 SU and ATS and 0-4 L4. if they dont win, they should cover. gettin cb (and Safety back) shoudl soildify defense somewhat-with you on that one.
couldnt agree more with NE / CLV thoughts.... wouldnt be surprised for brownies win here.
DET is 4-0 L4 ATS and perfect ATS at home TY (3-0)-they're improving for sure but just looks to be bad spot imo. a trend (courtesy pwrswp):
play on any non-div rd team that was shoutout at home LW '92-'09 15-3 play on: JETS
sooo... butting heads on two--and with you the others. wanna see you cash-and sweep the board. heres hoping you do just that. good luck :0074
thanks,teeb.......it`s no biggie if it goes south....mma and boxing are what i wager real money on....sort of....i don`t go crazy wagering on anything...i do it for the enjoyment......
the nfl is just too crazy to tread anything but lightly for me....
but thanks for being a nice guy...i wish you all the best tomorrow...
the nfl is just too crazy to tread anything but lightly for me....
but thanks for being a nice guy...i wish you all the best tomorrow...
week 10.....last week 3-1 on 1 unit plays(took cincy +5 instead of waiting as i intended:facepalm: )...0-1-1 on half unit plays...
1)denver +?(waiting for line movement)....haven`t seen anybody on denver yet...no touts...not a peep........obviously,i expect this line to move in denver`s favor(learned my lesson jumping on the cincy +5 line last week)...
a trend play and a "home team coming off the bye" play....don`t expect much love for denver here...but i think they`re better than they`ve shown....denver pass offense rated #2....k.c. pass defense #20...broncos defense sucks....expect improvement off the bye....the broncos can make some hay through the air...
2)jags +1....another bye team facing the more high profile club.......jags should move the ball here...texans "have yet to hold opponent under 24 points this year. Jags are 4-0 if they score 24+ points"......
3)jets-3...bucking the hot browns here....always prefer the jets on the road to the jets at home....they play looser...everyone jumping on the cleveland bandwagon..i believe they beat a "faux" 6-1 team last week.....i`m taking a slight detour and laying the 3 with the jets...
browns coming off an unusually high scoring game for them..this is an anomaly....imo,teams that have that uncharacteristicly great offensive ballgame usually come back to earth the following week .......
..................................
half unit...
1)tease...titans +9/squeelers+5.5/skins+13
i think the pats are a weak 6-2 club...but,i don`t trust the squeelers laying more than a field goal vs brady...
don`t like the fact that pennington is stepping in here...i think he`s solid....scares me...i may play miami flat because of pennington and the fact that tenn seems to be a huge public play...but i`ve always loved the titans on the road...
skins lose last week to the lions..eagles on fire...eagles have revenge motivation...makes no sense to take the skins,right?...
right..
2)phins +7/bears+7....just because pennington`s starting...and young ain`t....and tenn is such a public play...and minny may be quitting on their hated coach...
g.l.
1)denver +?(waiting for line movement)....haven`t seen anybody on denver yet...no touts...not a peep........obviously,i expect this line to move in denver`s favor(learned my lesson jumping on the cincy +5 line last week)...
a trend play and a "home team coming off the bye" play....don`t expect much love for denver here...but i think they`re better than they`ve shown....denver pass offense rated #2....k.c. pass defense #20...broncos defense sucks....expect improvement off the bye....the broncos can make some hay through the air...
2)jags +1....another bye team facing the more high profile club.......jags should move the ball here...texans "have yet to hold opponent under 24 points this year. Jags are 4-0 if they score 24+ points"......
3)jets-3...bucking the hot browns here....always prefer the jets on the road to the jets at home....they play looser...everyone jumping on the cleveland bandwagon..i believe they beat a "faux" 6-1 team last week.....i`m taking a slight detour and laying the 3 with the jets...
browns coming off an unusually high scoring game for them..this is an anomaly....imo,teams that have that uncharacteristicly great offensive ballgame usually come back to earth the following week .......
..................................
half unit...
1)tease...titans +9/squeelers+5.5/skins+13
i think the pats are a weak 6-2 club...but,i don`t trust the squeelers laying more than a field goal vs brady...
don`t like the fact that pennington is stepping in here...i think he`s solid....scares me...i may play miami flat because of pennington and the fact that tenn seems to be a huge public play...but i`ve always loved the titans on the road...
skins lose last week to the lions..eagles on fire...eagles have revenge motivation...makes no sense to take the skins,right?...
right..
2)phins +7/bears+7....just because pennington`s starting...and young ain`t....and tenn is such a public play...and minny may be quitting on their hated coach...
g.l.
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year to date...20-16 on 1 unit plays..6-6 on half unit plays
on a 6-1 run on 1 unit plays....
i know these aren`t all "sexy" or "logical" plays...but,as the season progresses,the books get greedier....how many times have we all started strong only to get drubbed as the season comes to a close?....
..i`m throwing logic out the window and looking for solid trends that aren`t necessarily always team specific...looking for teams flying under the radar in good situations...
here goes...
1)minny +3.5(-125/ 5 dimes).....
.public jumps off minny?...weasel jumps on...good rushing team vs bad run d`....viking solid pass d` vs packer good passing offense.. i like the match-up...and the fact that everybody`s kicking dirt on minny`s grave...now or never....
2)st lou +3.5(brobury)....another one that might move a little more...public perception...a trend or two favoring the rams....atlanta is a public darling despite the fact that they aren`t a top 15 pass/rush offensive or defensive club....rams allowing 15 ppg in 8 of last 9 games(allowed 44 to detroit,go figure)...falcs def giving up an avg of over 26 ppg last 4...
i`ll take the homefield,young qb,jackson,the "d" and the invigorated,improving rams...
3)houston +7(5 dimes)....love it...absolutely hate the jets as a home fave... jets coming off 2 overtime wins in a row?...that tends to wear on a club....
texans are coming off an 0-5 spread run(24-2 trend)...it`s time to back `em.....
4)9`ers -3(-125 brobury)...have to get off that half point.......they getting hot?...could be....expect gore to finally get untracked and run on the lousy tampa bay run defense(4.9 ypr?...30th)...and troy smith is very mobile......
troy smith?...wtf?....that`s fine...possible that mike williams out for the bucs(either way,doesn`t matter)
bucking the bucs after 4 straight covers...
half unit throwaway teasers and garbage..
1)ravens-1/k.c.+1/cleveland +11.5
2)giants+13.5/rams+13/houston+17
i
g.l.
on a 6-1 run on 1 unit plays....
i know these aren`t all "sexy" or "logical" plays...but,as the season progresses,the books get greedier....how many times have we all started strong only to get drubbed as the season comes to a close?....
..i`m throwing logic out the window and looking for solid trends that aren`t necessarily always team specific...looking for teams flying under the radar in good situations...
here goes...
1)minny +3.5(-125/ 5 dimes).....
.public jumps off minny?...weasel jumps on...good rushing team vs bad run d`....viking solid pass d` vs packer good passing offense.. i like the match-up...and the fact that everybody`s kicking dirt on minny`s grave...now or never....
2)st lou +3.5(brobury)....another one that might move a little more...public perception...a trend or two favoring the rams....atlanta is a public darling despite the fact that they aren`t a top 15 pass/rush offensive or defensive club....rams allowing 15 ppg in 8 of last 9 games(allowed 44 to detroit,go figure)...falcs def giving up an avg of over 26 ppg last 4...
i`ll take the homefield,young qb,jackson,the "d" and the invigorated,improving rams...
3)houston +7(5 dimes)....love it...absolutely hate the jets as a home fave... jets coming off 2 overtime wins in a row?...that tends to wear on a club....
texans are coming off an 0-5 spread run(24-2 trend)...it`s time to back `em.....
4)9`ers -3(-125 brobury)...have to get off that half point.......they getting hot?...could be....expect gore to finally get untracked and run on the lousy tampa bay run defense(4.9 ypr?...30th)...and troy smith is very mobile......
troy smith?...wtf?....that`s fine...possible that mike williams out for the bucs(either way,doesn`t matter)
bucking the bucs after 4 straight covers...
half unit throwaway teasers and garbage..
1)ravens-1/k.c.+1/cleveland +11.5
2)giants+13.5/rams+13/houston+17
i
g.l.
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