weasel picks

[gardenweasel]

21-20 1 unit plays/7-7 half unit plays

shit !....was doing pretty well running a 6-1 1 unit streak....then the bottom fell out and am currently on a 1-4 slide(that includes the lions wetting the bed in the second half on thanksgiving)........

f. it...

1 unit....

1)da` bearsss+3.5/4(hoping i won`t have to buy the half)...hate...absolutely HATE wagering against philly on the road....

but 4 points is a bridge too far...strong trend indicating the bears here...and it`s hard not to take the #3(rushing) and #1(passing) d`s playing at home getting 4.......


might be a sucker bet...it is what it is...

half unit plays......

2)falcons even(5 dimes)..great home team...usually seems to do enough to get it done at home....balanced offense...does nothing great...but does everything well....

nfc champiosbhip game preview...

3)10 pt tease...falcs+10...ravens+2...squeelers +3

 

[gardenweasel]

22-20 1 unit.......9-7 half unit

was gonna pass this week...very difficult week to get a handle on..plus i`m hung over..so i`m going the cowardly route....

half unit...10 pt teasers...

jags+13(flip flopped on this)...jags have amassed 79 first downs the last 3 weeks...as a dog, jags are 14-5 ats as
division road dogs....and lame del rio is 11-1 ats as an avenging road dog getting 6 pts or less...

browns+15....just because...nobody seems to be able to put the browns away...they play to the level of their competiton...they stick to oppnents like a bad smell..of course delhomme could change all that in a a matter of minutes...hence the half unit play..

tampa+13....visitor 13-1 ats in tampa games...but tampa is on a 5-0 spread run...conflicting trends...i expect them to lose...but lose relatively closely...team has character...

and the obvious...

chiefs +2..chargers-3...packers +1(brobury).............

the jags,49ers(i know),browns(delhomme) and redskins were very close to being straight plays...but i just don`t have a strong enough constitution after drinking a little too much last night...

i figured, wth....put something up....we haven`t hit bedrock yet...so let`s keep digging...

g.l....

 

[THE_THONG]

which play is the pure strike play
:0008
:mj07:

 

[gardenweasel]

22-20 / 1 unit plays...10-8 / half unit plays....

took a bye week last week...i posted on the forum that i liked the skins +2,but i didn`t post it,so it doesn`t go on the record..

wanted to get these up while i could still see 7`s....laying a littlee extra juice......

1.5 units each....going for the gusto here..

1)seattle+7..ultimate trap game for the falcs...coming off 3 straight division road wins....and they have new orleans on deck....seattle much more formidable at home....

getting a full t.d.,eh?...i`ll take it..

2)jets+7...this was mentioned in a previous thread...polamalu very iffy for the steelers...jets in a funk....but i love this situation for the jets.....always loved them as road dogs(5-1 on road s/u this year)......i see some similarities in these teams...the big difference is at qb...

still,i see a close,physical,hard fought game...i expect the jets to be focused here..

might be playing 1 or 2 more...

edit...adding half unit plays on n.o.+2 and the bungles-1....

 

[jr11]

22-20 / 1 unit plays...10-8 / half unit plays....

took a bye week last week...i posted on the forum that i liked the skins +2,but i didn`t post it,so it doesn`t go on the record..

wanted to get these up while i could still see 7`s....laying a littlee extra juice......

1.5 units each....going for the gusto here..

1)seattle+7..ultimate trap game for the falcs...coming off 3 straight division road wins....and they have new orleans on deck....seattle much more formidable at home....

getting a full t.d.,eh?...i`ll take it..

2)jets+7...this was mentioned in a previous thread...polamalu very iffy for the steelers...jets in a funk....but i love this situation for the jets.....always loved them as road dogs(5-1 on road s/u this year)......i see some similarities in these teams...the big difference is at qb...

still,i see a close,physical,hard fought game...i expect the jets to be focused here..

might be playing 1 or 2 more...

I like them both....good luck.

 

[gardenweasel]

i unit plays..23-21../...half unit plays...11-9


1)miami -3..(1 unit).just looks right...no stafford....some might say that miami`s out of it....i say,the pressure`s off and miami is ,imo,by far the better club...

detroit is 28th vs the run and 21st against the pass....miami is 3rd against the run and 10th against the pass.....

yeah,i know miami stumbles at home...but vs this quality of opposition, without it`s qb(and with both back-ups dinged),i`m laying the measely 3...i see it as the pressure being off them...


btw,there are also several trends supporting this play(and of course,several against it...that`s why i don`t post specific trends usually)......

and it also helps that everybody and their brother is on detroit after 2 straight wins vs gb and tampa.....when the public buries a team,weasel hops on board...

more to come...


edit2)...adding cleveland +4(-125).......for a unit.....


edit...3)...adding jets+3(-120)...half unit