Wednesday Service Plays 4/30/08

[the duke]

The Duke's Sports


*Best Bet* Cleveland (-5) for 3 Units
Washington/Cleveland 6:00: Cleveland had 18 turnovers and shot just 41% from the field in Game 4 in Washington yet still managed to win because they dominated the boards (+21 margin). We'll look for the Cavaliers to close this one out in a series where the favorite is 7-3 ATS.

Atlanta Under (187') for 2 Units
Atlanta/Boston 8:30: This series has gone 1-6 O/U at Boston and we expect another lower scoring game. Boston is 4-8 O/U following an upset loss and should clamp down defensively on an Atlanta team that is offensively challenged on the road. Atlanta's last two visits to Boston resulted in offensive outputs of only 81
and 77 points, respectively. The Hawks are 2-8 O/U on the road when the 'total' is set in this range. We'll go "under" here.

MLB:

San Diego Under (9') [Young/Moyer] for 2 Units
San Diego/Philadelphia 7:05: The Padres are one of the lowest run producing teams in the majors - averaging 3.26 runs per game on a .225 BA; moreover, they're batting just .177 since April 16th. We'll look for veteran Jamie Moyer to give Philly 6 quality innings here and let the respectable Phillies' bullpen close it out. On the
other hand, SD's Chris Young last week showed a glimpse of magic that made him an All-Star by locking down SF to 1 run in 7 innings in a 1-0 loss. In two starts vs the Phillies, Young controls a 1.46 ERA. "Under" the call.

Kansas City (-105) [Bannister over Millwood] for 2 Units
Kansas City/Texas 8:05: Texas is on a 4-14 slide and just can't get it done. Tuesday, they left 12 men stranded on base. Tonight, we'll look for KC's Brian Bannister to go deep into this game; Bannister, who is 3-2
with a 2.48 ERA, has allowed just 2 runs or less in 4 of his last 5 starts; moreover, he went 7 scoreless innings last July vs Texas in a 6-1 win. We'll look for the sluggish bats of KC to do just enough damage against Kevin Millwood. Millwood has been inconsistent this year; moreover, the TX bullpen has not been dependable. And
Jose Guillen sports a .391 BA vs Millwood. KC's won 3 of last 4 and we'll look for them to eke out a win here.

Kansas City Under (9') [Bannister/Millwood] for 1 Unit
Kansas City/Texas 8:05: We'll look for Bannister and Millwood to bring their best game to the mound tonight vs the sluggish lineups they'll face. This series is on a 2-5 O/U run. Texas is 9-22 O/U at home in this 'total' range; in the same 'total' range, KC is 1-5 O/U. KC is also 1-10 O/U following a win. Bannister is 1-4 O/U. And
home-plate umpire - Guccione is noted to have a large strike zone going 0-4 O/U. "Under" the call.

 

[the duke]

Michael Cannon

15 Dime ?

MARLINS (With Olsen as listed pitcher)

Take the Marlins for the home win tonight over the Dodgers.

Florida will start Scott Olsen and the left-hander is having a nice rebound season. He?s 3-0 with a 2.06 ERA after posting the highest ERA among any qualifying starting pitcher last year.

Olsen has been even better over his last three starts, posting a 2-0 record with a 0.42 ERA in 21 1-3 innings.

The Dodgers will counter with Chad Billingsley. After experiencing a successful jump to the starting rotation from the bullpen last year, the right-hander is struggling this year. Billingsley is 0-4 with a 6.53 ERA in six games. He?s getting hit hard despite posting 32 strikeouts in only 20 2-3 innings.

Florida is swinging the bats well right now, so they should be able to get through to Billingsley tonight.

Take the Marlins for the home win.


5 Dime ?

CAVALIERS

Take the Cavs minus the points tonight over the Wizards.

Washington has certainly talked the talk this series, but eventually this team has to realize that they need to back it up on the court.

The Wizards have been knocked out of the playoffs the last two years by the Cavs and tonight will make it three in a row.

LeBron James has been brilliant this series despite the physical harassment he?s taken from the Wizards.

Cleveland?s the better team, they are the more mature team by far and will prove it tonight.

Take the Cavs minus the points as they dispatch the Wizards once again and cover the number in doing so.


YANKEES (With Bonderman and Pettitte as listed pitchers)

Take the Yankees for the home win tonight over the Tigers.

I know the Pinstripers are battling some injuries right now, but they?ve been getting solid production from their veteran pitchers and tonight that will continue with Andy Pettitte.

The left-hander is 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA on the year and has posted a solid 3.49 ERA in 22 career starts against Detroit.

The Tigers will counter with Jeremy Bonderman, who has struggled big time against the Yankees in his career. In nine games the right-hander is just 2-6 with a 5.58 ERA.

Take the Yankees as they grab the home win.


ROYALS (With Bannister as listed pitcher)

Take the Royals for the road win tonight over the Rangers.

Texas is a mess right now. From Ron Washington?s job status to their abysmal pitching staff.

Tonight they host a Royals team that has some real promise, especially in the starting rotation.

Kansas City will send Brian Bannister to the mound and he?s 3-2 on the year with a 2.48 ERA. His mound opponent, Kevin Millwood, hasn?t had any run support behind him in his six starts this year.

Millwood has only one win to show for the season despite a solid 3.32 ERA.

With Bannister going for the Royals, look for a bunch of zeros from the Rangers once again.

Take the Royals as they grab the road win.

 

[the duke]

GOLD SHEETS LTS

NBA

"UNDER" 192 points WASHINGTON at CLEVELAND 9:05 PM PDT


Fat Jack

Washington +4 1/2

 

[the duke]

Vegas Runner


MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
906 ARI (-170) SportBet vs 905 HOU
Analysis:
* 1* ML WAGER *

Was looking to go RL and possibly make this a 2*, but with such an UNDER ump behind the plate, lets just look to pick up another Unit and go ahead and lay the chalk...



Wed, 04/30/08 - 3:45 PMvegas-runner | MLB Money Line Single-Dime Bet
908 SFG (-114) Bodog vs 907 COL
Analysis: * 1* ML WAGER *



Wed, 04/30/08 - 9:05 PMvegas-runner | NHL Money Line Double-Dime Bet
70 DAL (-150) SportBet vs 69 SJS
Analysis: ** 2* ML WAGER **



Wed, 04/30/08 - 6:05 PMvegas-runner | NBA Total Triple-Dime Bet
504 CLE / 503 WAS Over 191.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
**** 3* NBA EASTERN CONF TOTAL of the MONTH ****


** Don't Be Surprised if this one DROPS some more and I see no reason at all not to wait until closer to Tip-Off for a Possible 190 Total... from what I have been told by the books that is very possible **


After CASHING last night's Western Conf Total of the Month, we will look to make it "6" STRAIGHT BEST BET of the MONTH WINNERS with our last loss coming in February...
I won't waste your time or my own breaking down all of the stats to this game, but instead I will stress the fact that being able to predetermine the tempo/pace of the game is the number 1 factor when moving on a Total, after of course seeing if the number offered, differs from our own...and in this one, we hit the exacta because not only was I willing to go Over all the way to 194/195, but more importantly...this one has the makings of a very intense game which should offer a lot of scoring with the clock turned off, as well as both teams looking to take it to the other...
Finally, as long as both teams are able to attempt the amount of FG that we have pegged and FT/3pt attempts...then as long as they are on par with their defensive capabilities, we should have no problem going over because it won't be enough to stop the scoring and keep this one under the Total...don't be at all surprised to see this one break 200 without much resistance and it appears that the oddsmakers are well aware of this one and have posted the perfect line to make the public line up and lean Under even though its already lower than it should actually be. Lets go ahead and blast this Over and look for some points to be scored by both teams and get us another BEST BET WINNER on the OVER...

 

[the duke]

Erin Rynning

MLB
Playmaker: Angels/A's Under 8.5 (-110)




Teddy Covers

NBA Washington Wizards +5.0 3 units

MLB Kansas City Royals (-105) 3 units



Fairway Jay
MLB Athletics/Angels u9 3 units

NBA Washington Wizards +5.0 (-110) 3 units

 

[the duke]

LT Profits

2 UnitsToronto Blue Jays +160

 

[the duke]

Frank Rosenthal

NBA PLAYOFFS *
502 CELTICS-14 SB
UNDER 187.5 SB+
503 WIZARDS+5 SB
UNDER 192 SB


MAJOR LEAGUE BASEBALL
901 PIRATES OVER 8.5 SB+
906 DBACKS-165 SB
907 ROCKIES UNDER 8 SB+
911 PADRES+105 SB
UNDER 10 SB++
912 DODGERS-115 SB
925 TIGERS+130 SB
929 A'S UNDER 9 SB++
NOTE:
PMG=ADVERTISED PITCHERS MUST GO.

 

[the duke]

Mike Rose

NBA 2* WASHINGTON/CLEVELAND OVER 191.5

NBA 3* BOSTON (-14) VS. ATLANTA

MLB 3* TOR +155 (MCGOWAN) VS. BOS (MATSUZAKA)

MLB 2* TB Rays -114 (SONNANSTINE) VS. BAL (ALBERS)

MLB 2* FLA +105 (OLSEN) VS. LAD (BILLINGSLEY)





Alex Smart

3 Units MLB Los Angeles Angels (-135)