MTI
4.5-Star Utah +6.5 over LA LAKERS
In game one of this series, the Jazz shot 37.9% from the field including 4-of-19 from the arc. Their starters were a combined 1-14 from three-point territory and, as a team, they missed eight free throws. The well-coached Utah Jazz is famous for their intensity and determination in this situation. They are a sparkling 10-0 ATS on the road when seeking revenge for a double-digit road loss, covering by an average of 10.2 ppg - winning each of the last five straight up. In their last qualifying game, they beat the Hornets 77-66 in New Orleans on April 8th as a 5-point dog.
We also have a league-wide system that has been perfect since the 2003-04 playoffs. It reads, "the League is 11-0 ATS (+9.5 ppg) as a road dog with two or more days of rest after a game in which they shot at least 10 percentage points lower than their season-to-date average from the field and less than 85% from the line. The last qualifying team in this situation was these Utah Jazz, when they beat the Rockets 93-82 as a slight road dog in round 1 of this season's playoffs.
In game one, the Lakers played team defense and team offense. A whopping 24 of their 33 baskets were assisted, with Bryant leading the team with 7. This type of game seems to cause the Lakers, especially Kobe Bryant, to go from a Bryant-dominated offense to a egalitarian offense. This is not the way the Lakers' offense should be run and it causes problems. Indeed, the Lakers are 0-15 ATS with two or more days of rest after a game in which the percentage of their baskets that were assisted was at least ten percentage points higher than their season-to-date average, as long as they weren't laying 8+ points. LA is only 1-14 straight up in this situation, with their lone win over the Grizzlies. In their last two, both from this season, they lost by double digits.
Looking at the player-based trends we find that the Lakers are 0-4 ATS DURING THE PLAYOFFS at home after winning the previous matchup at home in which Kobe Bryant was the Lakers' high scorer.
As for the Jazz, they are 8-0 ATS (9.5 ppg) when seeking revenge for a road loss in which Carlos Boozer had more turnovers than assists and 6-0 ATS DURING THE PLAYOFFS with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Deron Williams was not the Jazz's high scorer, covering the spread by an average of 14.6 ppg.
Because the Lakers are undefeated in the playoffs and they looked so good in game one, the series price on this one is currently a big overlay. Currently, the Jazz are something like +475 to win this series. We think they will win tonight, and if they do, this price will drop precipitously. Remember, the Jazz were 37-4 at home during the regular season and if they win tonight, all they have to do is "hold serve" to win this series.
The Jazz are a focused, dedicated and quiet team, whereas the Lakers are in the news with Bryant's MVP award. Utah's play tonight will speak for them. Take the Jazz plus the points tonight and if you want to play them on the moneyline, +475 in the series is better than +265 tonight.
MTi's FORECAST: Utah 98 LA LAKERS 92
4-Star ORLANDO -3' over Detroit
One thing I think we can count on here is a less-than-urgent effort from the Pistons. So, all we have to worry about is the Magic. Will they be discouraged by their near miss in game two, or will they be inspired and buoyed by the home crowd. We expect the latter. Detroit is a poor 0-12 ATS as a road dog with at most one day of rest when they have won and covered their last three games, as long as the total is less than 200 points. In addition, the Pistons are 0-5 ATS (-7.9 ppg) on the road after winning the previous matchup in which Tayshaun Prince had a double-double.
Turning our attention to the Magic, we find that they are a perfect 18-0 ATS with at least a day of rest after a loss on the road in which Dwight Howard played more than 40 minutes - including 10-0 ATS last season. In addition, Orlando is 11-0 ATS (7.8 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Rashard Lewis played more than 40 minutes and 10-0 ATS (7.2 ppg) after a loss on the road in which Dwight Howard was the Magic's high scorer. We have still more. The Magic are 8-0 ATS (7.7 ppg) as a favorite when seeking revenge for a loss in which Maurice Evans took fewer than 10 shots and 8-0 ATS when seeking revenge for a loss in which Dwight Howard had at least 5 turnovers. If the Magic come to play, and all indications are that they will, they can beat the Pistons going away.
MTi's FORECAST: ORLANDO 98 Detroit 87
4-Star Utah at LA Lakers UNDER 209'
The Jazz can do something that the Nuggets can't - play tough team defense. We expect Utah to play a half-court, defensive game today, with their "bigs" focusing on defense rather than scoring. As evidence, Utah is 0-5 OU when seeking revenge for a road loss in which Mehmet Okur was the Jazz's high scorer, staying under by an average of a whopping 19.5 ppg. In addition, the Jazz are 0-5 OU as a dog after losing the previous matchup on the road in which Deron Williams was not the Jazz's high scorer, staying under by an average of 18.6 ppg.
That said, the major reason, for this play is a playoff-only player-based trend involving Kobe Bryant. In the playoffs, the Lakers are a perfect 0-7 OU since the 2003-04 NBA playoffs after two wins in which Kobe Bryant scored at least 30 points in each. In their lone active date this playoffs, they went under by 44 points in game 3 vs the Nuggets. In addition, LA is 0-7 OU after a win at home in which Derek Fisher had more assists than points.
With the Jazz a perfect 0-10 OU (-15.6 ppg) after a road loss in which they made more baskets than their opponent, there's only one way to take this total - UNDER.
MTi's FORECAST: UTAH 98 LA Lakers 92
