Robert Ferringo
1.5-Unit Play. Take #972 New York Yankees (-130) over Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
1-Unit Play. Take #972 New York Yankees (-1.5,
+170) over Cleveland
(7 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
This is simple: the Yankees are 28-8 in Chien-Ming Wang?s last 36 starts and 41-14 in his last 55 starts. Cliff Lee has been a great story in this early part of the season, but he?s going to get squeezed by Brian Gorman behind the plate tonight and is facing a Yankees lineup that?s shown a little life over the last week. Lee has a career ERA of nearly 7.00 in his three starts in Yankee Stadium. Cleveland, on the other hand, is not going to be able to muster enough offense to win this game. They stole one last night on an eighth-inning homer, but they are still just 6-20 in their last 26 games in the Bronx and I see the Yankees evening this series up.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #962 Houston (-165) over Washington (8 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
1-Unit Play. Take #962 Houston (-1.5, +130) over Washington (8 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
This one is straight forward enough: Roy Oswalt is 64-20 in his career at home and the Astros are 45-15 in his last 60 starts overall. Yes, they have lost seven of his last 10 starts, but I?m taking the long view and backing a pitcher that wins 75 percent of the time. Odalis Perez has an ERA of 12.91 in his career against Houston and is 0-4 against the ?Stros. Washington has lost 11 of its last 13 road games, and with Perez facing one of the hottest lineups in baseball I think that spells trouble for the Nats.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #967 Baltimore (+120) over Oakland (4 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
Random trend in this game: the A?s are just 1-10 with Joe West behind the plate. More tangible and relevant trend: Oakland has lost eight of 10 of Joe Blanton?s home starts. I am still holding to my belief that the A?s won?t sweep this four-game set here, so we?ll continue to play the value with the Orioles.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #970 Toronto (-145) over Tampa Bay (7 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
Baseball is a funny game. How else can you explain Tampa's recent dominance of the Blue Jays? The Rays are 12-5 against Toronto dating back to last year and have won five straight. Yeah, I gotta think that's coming to an end. The Jays look like they have some confidence right now and they have started to hit the ball a little better - a little, not a ton, but enough - since moving Alex Rios to the leadoff spot. And here's a Betcha Didn't Know about Matt Garza: he is 1-10 in his career on turf.
1-Unit Play. Take #954 Los Angeles Dodgers (-130) over New York Mets (3 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
First, this is a play on Brad Penny at home. The Dodgers are 21-8 in his last 29 starts at home and 40-15 in his starts as a favorite. He's always been a lights out starter in the first half of the year, and with a team that's won 10 of 11 at his back he is the play. And he fits today's theme: bet on the pitcher that wins nearly 70 percent of his starts (Penny, Oswalt, Wang). I wanted to throw the White Sox in today's games as well, but I didn't out of respect for another system I use. Anway, the Mets are 4-12 on the road against a right-handed starter, are hitting .198 over the past week (compared to .320 for L.A.), and are 9-19 overall against a righty starter recently. The day game after a night game is going to hurt the Mets and their veteran players more than it will the Dodgers. And if the Mets fall behind early they may start thinking ahead to that plane ride home.
Today's totals:
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 8.5 San Diego at Atlanta (7 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 8.5 Washington at Houston (8 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 8.5 Tampa Bay at Toronto (7 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 8.0 New York Mets at Los Angeles Dodgers (3 p.m., Wednesday, May 7)
