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3.5-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (-130) over Washington (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
1.5-Unit Play. Take #903 Philadelphia (-1.5, +120) over Washington (7 p.m., Wed., July 30)
Note: This is our Game of the Month.
The crux of this play lies on the fact that the Washington Nationals have just one regular in their lineup that's batting over .250. This team has really been decimated by injuries this year and they simply have nothing to play for. Philadelphia has more talent, better pitching and hitting, and they are in the thick of the playoff hunt. They win games like this. Even if Tim Redding has a stellar outing tonight - and I fully expect him to hold the Phils to around three or four runs - and Washington get ahead, they have no closer! They have no back end of the bullpen to withstand the inevitable late Phillies rally. Washington is 4-10 in its last 14 games against a left-handed starter and 7-17 in their last 24 against a southpaw. I've watched this lineup and they just don't have the patience to work against a soft-tosser like Jamie Moyer. We have an ump with a wide zone behind the dish and that is going to help Moyer work his magic. This is a great price on a team that's A) underachieving, B) gone through a brutal portion of their schedule, C) dominated this series. I like the matchup and I like a 5-2 Phillies win for us tonight.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #901 Colorado (-150) over Pittsburgh (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
Hmm. Things looked like they were running smoothly for the Rox. Then Pittsburgh got ahold of them to exact some revenge for a series sweep in Coors. Well, I think Colorado manages to salvage one 'W' from this set. They are No. 2 in the league against left-handed pitchers and the last time they matched up Aaron Cook with Zach Duke they won 11-3. I don't expect that much of a blowout, but I do expect Colorado to no blow a multiple-run lead for the third straight day.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #905 St. Louis (+110) over Atlanta (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
The Braves are trotting out a Class AAA lineup and really are about to start mailing in this season. Can't blame them. They just don't have the guns to hold back the Cardinals today. Jair Jurrjens has been brilliant at home - and likely will be again tonight - but the bullpen is a wreck and Atlanta just won't be able to get it done.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #910 Milwaukee (-110) over Chicago Cubs (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
I actually have three of my best systems suggesting a play on Milwaukee. This really should be my highest, or second-highest, play on the board. But it isn't. Why? Because I'm scared of the Cubs right now. That said, I will be pretty stunned if the Brewers are swept in their own building by a team that's been very shaky on the road. I'm expecting a higher scoring affair and I think that will benefit the team that bats last.
1.5-Unit Play. Take #913 Arizona (-135) over San Diego (10 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
This is as large of a pitching mismatch between two regular starters as you'll find. But we didn't do bigger on it because the Padres always manage to play the D-Backs tough. That said, Arizona is hitting the ball lately. When they hit above, say, .260, they are tough to beat. They had multiple chances to break last night's game open and really dominated from start to finish. I think the Baby Backs stay in their groove and earn a sweep over a floundering Padres club.
Today's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 8.5 Cincinnati at Houston (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
2-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 8.5 Chicago Cubs at Milwaukee (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 9.0 Detroit at Cleveland (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Over? 8.5 Los Angeles Angels at Boston (7 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
1.5-Unit Play. Take ?Under? 9.5 Chicago White Sox at Minnesota (8 p.m., Wednesday, July 30)
