This is for all the CFP loose marbles tonight!! Hate the line, it stinks, tons of money on the Catholic 63% on the side yet balanced out by Buckeye money, tons of touts or wanna be sharps on the over at 46 1/2 yet line is down to 45 1/2. Capping this game is simple, who has the most NFL prospects, who has the hottest hand as far as QB goes, and who has the less injuries. Special teams anyone? Looking at the two QBs, they both bring difference to the table, one is a running QB, the other can pass the long ball and short passes and scrabble if needed, Irish with 2 rbs Love n stuff who have yet to breakout the last two games with Love banged up a bit vs PSU, State's been weapons were Singleton & Allen, Leonard for Irish got a bit bumped last game and had to sit out a few plays w/backup Angeli taking a few snaps, and TE Warren for Nittany Lions had some key catches but no red zone points for him. Ohio State has 2 good TEs who don't get much pub with WR Smith taking all the flowers yet he got shut down to just 1 reception for 3 yards for the Buckeyes being covered by 3 Longhorns? Ay carumba. That left Egbuka & Tate to do their damage as I had felt for the Buckeyes as I knew Texas would key on Smith, it helped but Horns still got scooped up and lost by 14. I see much of this coming down to the same tonight!!
Last 3 matchups for the Irish & Buckeyes, Buckeyes are 3-0 SU and winning margins of +3, +11 and +16 vs Irish teams that were not built like this year's version which has beaten common opponent, Penn St. Hard to phathom the Irish still lost to NIU early in the year, that just baffles me, must have been a hangover party the night before in South Bend.
Now the key players to note for tonight. Judkins & Henderson both less than 50 yards rushing last game out vs Horns "D". however, Judkins found the end zone twice and Henderson on a short pass out of the backfield for over 70 yards. Front 7 for the Horns probably the best the Buckeyes faced all year, comparable to Penn St's and definitely comparable to the Irish front 7 minus their stud DL Mills, ND also lost 2 OL one is questionable tonight the other Knapp is out. Buckeyes for the most part 100% healthy.
The DBs for Buckeyes for me are the difference in this game, all 4 ball hawktuas and all 4 can mash!! DL for Buckeyes will give Leonard fits on trying to drop back to pass so you may see Leonard try the ol' alley oops pop pass if in the short yardage or red zone close range. Howard can hit any receiver he has, that's the larger difference yet Irish did manage to pick off 19 passes this season, most of any teams in the CFP. The rest of the matchup is going to key on field possession, both teams have solid kickers but I don't really see a kicking matchup at all, short yardage plays will be gone for if less than 3 to pickup for a first down or TD, unless neither team can even move the ball on the ground.
SO QB, WRs, RBs and "D" all favor Ohio State for me, intangibles special teams for Irish, they managed to take a KO return for a TD vs Georgia, and field goals, evenly matched, senior factor and NFL prospect factors, Ohio State with tons of them. Head Coach matchup, up and coming in Marcus Freeman, he doesn't get rattled and loves to smile in face of adversity, Ryan Day, scrutinized cuz he can't beat Michigan? Really? This is not Woody Hayes or Urban Meyer or Tressel or Cooper folks, what's Ryan Day's overall record and how's he done in FCP series so far? He has managed to have Justin Fields and now Will Howard, Irish with a big FU to the CFP for their matchups but they prevailed, albeit 3 points over Penn St and easy victories vs banged up QBs with Georgia & Indiana. So the weight I use to cap this game is this:
Overall margin of victorys, Ohio State 24 margin to ND 23 margin, SOS to Ohio State, L3 games in CFP, Ohio State with +19 margin, ND with +8 margin, away game margins Ohio State +16 but Irish +23? Intangible here, Irish with 12 more takeaways than Buckeyes. That will be a big key as Howard in the past has been flustered in key situations. How the Irish move around their throwin Samoan on the D-Line and utilize their DB speed to blitz packages, Ohio State has two big running backs who can neutralize blitzes by blocking and getting a screen pass. Tight Ends for Buckeyes as well both key ingredients.
When my numbers factor out in this one I have Ohio State winning by 3-4 points with a total ranging from 42-54 points!!
My play: 7 pt: Ohio St -1 & Over 38 1/2 (5 units)
I will have a prop play or so later this afternoon
21-9-1, +11.1, 1 unit plays
4-0, +4.0, 1 unit, 7 pt teaser
1-2, -1.2, 1 unit halftime plays
1-1, +.80, 1 unit moneyline plays
9-7, +3.15, 1 unit live plays
14-15, +1.25, 1 unit prop plays
1-0, +1.44, 1 unit parlay
7-3, +18.5, 5 unit plays
0-0, 5 unit half-time plays
3-2, +2.5, 5 unit, 7 pt teaser
8-8, -3.75, 5 unit live plays
7-12, -29.25, 5 unit prop plays
1-1, -1.0, 10 unit live plays
BOWL GAME OF YEAR - 10 units, Ohio St -2, 1/1/25, OHIO ST 41 OREG 21, +10.0
BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR - 10 units -, Over 45 GA/ND 1/2/25, LOSER ND 23 GA 10, -11.0
BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR - 10 units, Over 56 Oregon/Ohio St 1/1/25, WINNER, OSU 41 OREGON 21, +10.0
Notre -2, moved to +1, WINNER 27-24, 1/9/25, +10.0 units
WIN.....80.....LOSS.....61...., PUSH...1...., +31.44 units, as of 12/14/24