Week 4, 9/21 - 9/23
CC -7
LOSER
2H: Over 28 1/2 G St/CC
LOSER
Over 45, now at 48 NC State/Va (5 units) - Va "D" can't stop anyone allowing 42 ppg, N C St in the mood to run up the score on the road
PUSH
2H: Over 24 Wisky/Pur (5 units)
WINNER
Florida St -2 1/2 - Noles offensively much better overall than Clemson, Clemson only saving grace is their "D"
Over 63 1/2 SMU/TCU - Visitor is 8-0 in the series, last year score was 42-34 at SMU, could be the same at TCU
Over 54 1/2 Miss/Ala (5 units) - line opened 48 1/2 and steamed to 54 1/2, both "D" are questionable, Bama searching for a QB? How is that possible? Bama 1-3 ATS L4 vs Miss, last year score 30-24 at Oxford, should be 42-35 at Bama this year.
Over 52 Miami/F-Temple
Maryland -6 1/2 - Terps "O" will wear down Sparty who got clipped by U Wash last week!!
Over 56 1/2 BYU/Kansas (5 units) - BYU off come from behind win at Ark go into Lawrence undefeated and guess what? Jayhawks are undefeated once again after 3 games.
Over 36 1/2 Okie jr/Cyclones
Over 57 UTSA/Tenn (5 units) - Roadrunners offense can at least score, Tenn Vols offensively yet to really tap into their "O" but Milton's overdue for a breakout game
Over 53 1/2 CMich/USA
J'ville St -5 1/2 (5 units) - Rich Rod over a bad EMU team, best players on EMU are their OL but they don't handle the ball, J'ville is 2-1 overall with a +3 turnover margin and they're off a bye week. EMU won by 2 vs UMass most recent. They suck!
Over 60 1/2 GTech/WF (5 units) - Both teams can score and Wake off a tough game vs ODU on the rd, G Tech put up points vs L'ville, this is an ACC affair, should be high scoring.
S Miss -5 1/2 - Arkansas State in revenge mode, but they suck, S Miss has a +5 turnover margin, they can run the ball a bit, although they were shut down by Fla St & Tulane most recently while Ark State scored 3 total points vs Memphis & Oklahoma, this smells like a road blow out win even though S Miss won only 20-19 at home last year.
Washington St +3 (5 units) - I like both coaches but I know small home dog lines in conference play can sway action both ways which Vegas wants, Wazoo can put up points in the air, they crushed Colorado State, Beavers just off big home win vs San Diego St so I'll hedge slightly here for the home dawgy!! Schedule strength favors Cougars too!!
Stanford +10 1/2 - Arizona is 0-3 L3 vs Stanford, Stanford got smacked down by Sac St this past weekend, so getting double digits at home, I'll take the points in a small play here although Wildcats put up a hard fought battle at Miss State, I believe Bulldogs were looking ahead to LSU.
Over 61 Nevada/Texas St (5 units) - revenge spot at home for Texas St and Nevada off hard fought loss to Kansas, should be a shootout here
Notre Dame +3 1/2 - grabbing the points as it's steamed down from -8 1/2 Ohio State down to -3 1/2, Irish with new QB have shown grit, they've played basically nobody and neither have the Buckeyes, give home field edge here for the Irish and statistically both teams mirror each other, ND in revenge mode lost at Columbus last year by 11, this one should be closer. The weakness here for ND is the average pass attempt they allow compared to Buckeyes.
Houston -12 1/2 - Sam Houston folks has scored 1.5 points per game, they're new to the FCS, Cougars can score, Sammy can't score so this should end up a 17-3 type game at worse!!
Over 52 1/2 UAB/Georgia - Dawgs can write their own score here, so I'm seeing them put up at least 7 touchdowns which would be 49 points estimate and allow the Blazers with new HC Trent Dilfer a chance to show recruits their grit!!
Baylor +14 1/2, now at +15 - Bears winless so far, they were off this past weekend off a 7 pt loss at home vs Utah and upset loss at home to Texas State, so their focus has been on Texas and if you play trends, Baylor is 4-1 L5 vs Texas ATS, I think there will be a lot of scoring in this tilt much like the 38-27 loss at Texas last year.
Over 58 Buffalo/Louisiana - Buffalo put up a fight at Wisky and ULL can score, this could be a huge mismatch. Buffalo is 0-3 even losing to Fordham of all programs, giving up 55, 40 & 38 in their 3 games, ULL has scored 41, 31 & 38 points in their 3 tilts.
Middle Tenn -2 (5 units) - CSU off the Colorado showdown last weekend, night game in OT, trend is to take a DD dog who lost in OT facing a team on the rd 2 consecutive weeks, CSU averaged just 2.4 yards per carry on offense rushing the ball, MT has played Alabama & Missouri, much tougher opponents on the road, CSU faced Wazoo at home and got smoked and was hyped up vs Colorado PrimeTime, MT should blow CSU out, 31-14!!
Over 62 USC/Arizona State (5 units) - USC offensively is the best team ASU will face until now, Trojans are averaging just 59 points and giving up 17 and ASU has no offense at all, getting beat at home vs Okie jr and scoreless at home vs Fresno. USC won last year 42-25 at USC, this one should be 56-14!!
Arizona State +33 1/2 (5 units) - Sun Devils have had USC's number in the past, ASU sucks this year offensively, but giving me almost 5 touchdowns at home in the PAC, I'll take with a back door cover and a 100% effort from the Devils at home on late night TV. 49-21 type game!!
Cal +21 1/2 - Bears should be able to stay within 3 touches as Wash is off big road blowout at Sparty, they've only faced Boise & Tulsa before that, Cal has played Auburn for a test with a 4 point loss at home, so Bears ATS wise are 4-1 L5 away vs Wash, this one should be the same, Wash 38 Cal 21!!
Over 72, now 70 1/2 Colorado/Oregon (5 units) - I wanted so much to make this the Total of the Year, have some time left to post that one, Buffs off huge battle at home now go on the road with no rushing offense, they're missing their 2 way star Hunter now face the High Flying Ducks scoring at 58 ppg while allowing 16 ppg, Buffs can throw the ball however pressure on Shedeur could be the difference in this tilt with no running games the offense will rely on passing vs the Ducks who allow 4.6 yards per passing attempt which could spell a blowout win vs the Ducks? CU is just 2-5 L7 vs Oregon, all b4 the arrival of PrimeTime, but Ducks talent could reign supreme here. This will be one of the most highly bet and watched game all week!!!
GAME OF YEAR: Colorado +21 1/2, now +21 (10 units) - Still no love for the Buffs and Prime ?? WTF? Ducks beat Portland State scoring 81 points, narrowly won on a back door cover at Texas Tech thanks to the pick 6, and last week and managed to get 55 points vs Hawaii, and happened to give up 10 points to Hawaii, Ducks gave up 30 vs Texas Tech and it could have been more. Now the Ducks are facing a team which got an OT win at home in one of the most hyped up games all year and on Nat'l TV & Game Day on ESPN, now the Buffaloes are 21 point dogs on the road? Sure they should be dogs and they lost their 2 way guy, but last time I checked there are more than 1 player on the Buffs roster who've made an impact each of the 1st 3 games for them right? Special teams, turnovers and running game here will be skills of interests for the Buffs to work on this week and give their best effort as only Prime can get from his players, he's done it everywhere he has coached and his Sons do not accept mediocrity and they will shine vs the Ducks. Bo Nix? He's not an NFL type QB and he can be pressured by speed which the Buffs have. I like this spot which goes against my criteria for playing in OT vs a Non-Conf opponent the game before a conference opponent, but Oregon has yet to impress me and Texas Tech played them hard albeit it was in Lubbock, Portland State & Hawaii don't have any street cred to even count as opponents, Colorado faced TCU, one of the nation's best overall "D" in Nebraska and played a psychology, mental game, vs instate rival Colorado State Rams. My numbers come out to a cover with a score of 49-34 here!! GOOD LUCK EVERYONE!!
added:
Colorado +600 (5 units)
Sweetheart 13 pts, 1 unit to win 1.9 units:
- Colorado +34
- Over 57 Colorado @ (372) Oregon
- Over 43 Mississippi @ (394) Alabama
- Over 46.5 UTSA @ (340) Tennessee
- Over 31 Appalachian State @ (418) Wyoming
- Over 46 1/2 Nevada @ (398) Texas State
- Over 49 USC @ (370) Arizona State
OVER 47 Kent St/Fresno (5 units) - Kent St trying to fill pieces in their lineups vs an established home fav who's racking up points, they could rack up 49 by themselves in this game
OVER 52 JMU/USU (5 units) - JMU could be road weary and are undefeated still, Utah St with tough matchups past couple weeks finally at home, this should be in the upper 50's/60's type combo score, USU 37 JMU 34
Miss State +6 (5 units)
UTSA +23 1/2 (5 units) - Tenn Vols can score so can UTSA
Buffalo +10
Over 44 App St/Wyoming (5 units)
App St +3
USF +3 - Bulls try and get a straight up home win in like forever!!
LIVE: Clemson -3 1/2 (5 units)
LIVE: SMU +8 1/2 (5 units)
Arkansas +17 1/2 (5 units) - Hogs off a bad beat at home vs BYU last week and LSU crushed Miss St, this is a bragging rights game for recruiting and Kelly has yet to impress me as a HC at LSU, he started out slow at ND, and this is only his 2nd season in the Bayou, this is a 10-16 point type game for me.
10-13, -4.3, 1 unit sides play
12-9, +2.1, -1.2, 1 unit totals play
3-2, +4.0, 5 unit sides play
4-6, -13.5, 5 unit totals play
0-1, -1.1, 1 unit 7 pt teaser play
3-3, -6.5, 5 unit 7 pt teaser play
4-0, +20.0, 5 unit LIVE plays
1-1, -0.1, 1 unit LIVE Plays
4-0, +20.0, 5 unit 2H Plays
0-2, -2.2, 1 unit 2H Plays
............Total of the Year
............Game of the Year
WON.....41.....LOSS.....37.....PUSH.....0.....,
+18.4 units, as of 8/26/23