NBA MON 110209 early thoughts - value hunting

[axp59]

Hmmm....


NFL-hit a big one today thanks to a gent named 'frogster'. he's on top of his game. met him across the street and hooked me up with solid plays. check him out for next week. He's got a MNF play also. I'm not sure if stops by here under another name.

Didn't have time to post today and it's a good thing. Only one NBA action play and locked early last night. Had I posted and got tailers, it would have crashed. Took LAL already @-7 and that play would have tanked @-8+.

Waiting on NOH/NYK numbers. Not much on the board for Monday and was going to pass on posting but I got an email from another gent. He was talking about being a small time player and about info sharing. His message was sincere so... info sharing it is even if I don't have a play.

I do have my eye on the late night MIN/LAC game.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 236pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=314 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 188pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 9142" width=250><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 188pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=250>NBA[509] MINNESOTA</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=64>+8?-110</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>NBA[510] MINNESOTA v LA CLIPPERS</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">u193-110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I like the side more than the total. Action plays only. Might lock the MIN points tonight and see how the other number plays out in the a.m.

BOL

 

[odoggx21]

i'm always looking forward to your plays my brother, thnx for all the help. Could you also post your boy froggy'z plays for nfl? I would always appreciate any type of advice that can help me get the man

 

[hoch21]

Hmmm....


NFL-hit a big one today thanks to a gent named 'frogster'. he's on top of his game. met him across the street and hooked me up with solid plays. check him out for next week. He's got a MNF play also. I'm not sure if stops by here under another name.

Didn't have time to post today and it's a good thing. Only one NBA action play and locked early last night. Had I posted and got tailers, it would have crashed. Took LAL already @-7 and that play would have tanked @-8+.

Waiting on NOH/NYK numbers. Not much on the board for Monday and was going to pass on posting but I got an email from another gent. He was talking about being a small time player and about info sharing. His message was sincere so... info sharing it is even if I don't have a play.

I do have my eye on the late night MIN/LAC game.

<TABLE style="WIDTH: 236pt; BORDER-COLLAPSE: collapse" border=0 cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width=314 x:str><COLGROUP><COL style="WIDTH: 188pt; mso-width-source: userset; mso-width-alt: 9142" width=250><COL style="WIDTH: 48pt" width=64><TBODY><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 188pt; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17 width=250>NBA[509] MINNESOTA</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; WIDTH: 48pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" width=64>+8?-110</TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17></TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0"></TD></TR><TR style="HEIGHT: 12.75pt" height=17><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; HEIGHT: 12.75pt; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0" height=17>NBA[510] MINNESOTA v LA CLIPPERS</TD><TD style="BORDER-BOTTOM: #c0c0c0; BORDER-LEFT: #c0c0c0; BACKGROUND-COLOR: transparent; BORDER-TOP: #c0c0c0; BORDER-RIGHT: #c0c0c0">u193-110</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

I like the side more than the total. Action plays only. Might lock the MIN points tonight and see how the other number plays out in the a.m.

BOL

I was liking the ATL tonight, possibly throwing a lil on the ML. Great value if you ask me. BOL with Minny, still waiting on bodog.

 

[Eagle123]

AX
What is the MNF play then?

 

[axp59]

Keep in mind that when he gave his MNF play, the number for NO was -10. It's as high as -13.5 @ 5dimes. BOL, moving off 10 is fairly significant. :0corn

 

[axp59]

I was liking the ATL tonight, possibly throwing a lil on the ML. Great value if you ask me. BOL with Minny, still waiting on bodog.

You are 100% correct. The present value of a ML play on ATL is the only positive value of any of the 3 propositions: points, O-U and ML. It's currently sits at $11.25 @+470. I ran the points @ -11.5 and the negative value is roughly ($4.89) compared to ($1.14) @ -11. There is also only negative value of ($2.97) on O55.

the following % were used to determine value:
points -11 & -11.5 ~ 50%
O-U O55~ 49.5%
ML ATL~ 19.5%

keep in mind the fractional % of landing right on the number.

This by no means calls for a play on the ATL ML but only that there is positive value on this proposition. BOL

 

[proguy747]

I believe the books are just hoping for a back door cover...

The linebackers for atlanta are going to have a hard time as we say them struggle with chicago. by the way chicago has no real wide reciever or tight end.

Tonight will be a battle of tight ends... Should be good one.

Saints have a great running game which the falcons have not faced in awhile. line backers of atlanta will have to play above their heads.

We saw against chicago that the linebackers get lost in coverage at times....

This saints team is the most explosive in the nfl by far.. people mention indy being explosive, however they are one dimensional as they do not have a true pound it out running game.. we saw this yesterday with the 49ers.....

The Dolphins with the wildcat gives everybody trouble. Last week the saints adjusted and not only shut them out in the fourth but scored also...

Saints are to much team for atlanta..

Atlanta struggled and was killed against the high powered cowboys offense, by the way saints score 10 points more a game then dallas.

atlanta defense is not up to the task at hand...

saints to the bank..

 

[hoch21]

You are 100% correct. The present value of a ML play on ATL is the only positive value of any of the 3 propositions: points, O-U and ML. It's currently sits at $11.25 @+470. I ran the points @ -11.5 and the negative value is roughly ($4.89) compared to ($1.14) @ -11. There is also only negative value of ($2.97) on O55.

the following % were used to determine value:
points -11 & -11.5 ~ 50%
O-U O55~ 49.5%
ML ATL~ 19.5%

keep in mind the fractional % of landing right on the number.



This by no means calls for a play on the ATL ML but only that there is positive value on this proposition. BOL

Agree, you aren't getting -10 anywhere anymore , so you might as well forget it. The books have been getting killed by bad teams getting lots of points until this weekend, I think it'll continue. ATL +13.5 and a lil on the ML. :toast:

 

[pkkingster15]

Hey all!

Saw a couple of you cashed last night, I was on Joe Schmo's Nuggs over, as well as the Hornets and the Bulls . I really like the Falcons tonight, and I think Matt Ryan is still being overlooked by the books. He is 5-6 career on the road, with two of his losses coming in his first two road games. Last year, when they played the Saints in week 14, they lost in the Metrodome 29-25. This was laregely the same Saints offense, as Pierre Thomas had already taken over the carries at that point. He was successful and took the Falcons by surprise, he and scored teh game winning TD and dominated the 4th quarter. Granted, the Saints defense has been awesome, but Turner should pound the ball 23+ times, and if Ryan can stay out of trouble, he should have some success through the air. Darren Sharper has made a lot of huge plays for this secondary, but the Falcons know that, and should look to keep the ball away from him. They have two great targets on offense, so it will be tough for the Saints to lock down both.

I'm just starting to look at the NBA games, so I'll be back in a bit. BOL guys!

 

[jerdog]

Ax,

thanks so much. I am really learning a lot from all of you guys. posts in here. I was wondering if it is ok to ask where "across the street" is. I would send an email or pm but it is turned off. thanks in advance.

 

[proguy747]

Agree, you aren't getting -10 anywhere anymore , so you might as well forget it. The books have been getting killed by bad teams getting lots of points until this weekend, I think it'll continue. ATL +13.5 and a lil on the ML. :toast:

I would be carefull. ATL has not faced arunning game like this and they are 20th in the league in run d, in fact they are in the 20's in every category.

I would wait to play atl at game time should be up to +14 or more..

 

[Mindframe913]

Atl has not lost two in a row since matt ryan came aboard. Falcons are a good solid team and always keep it close vs saints, especially when saints have the better record.

Saints should have lost last week.
To miami! And now that they didn't books are very happy with a -10 backed heavily by the public. Line is way off here and I might get some more at +13.

This is not the pats of 07..Saints are not going 17-0 guys, the upset is right around the corner and it might even be tonite.
I'm taking the points.

 

[M__J]

Im looking at the over in the Charlotte/NJ game. 177.5 and NJ gave up 124 the other night, albeit to a much better Wizards team.


Anyone have any thoughts on this one?

Edit to add some trends"

New Jersey is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Jersey is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Jersey's last 5 games
New Jersey is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
New Jersey is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
New Jersey is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
New Jersey is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New Jersey's last 12 games when playing Charlotte
New Jersey is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
New Jersey is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Charlotte
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Jersey's last 6 games when playing on the road against Charlotte

 

[BillyBatts]

Leans

Leans

Good morning guys.
Went 1-1 in NBA last night, covering with N.Orleans by a point and losing Denver by a half.
Had a great weekend in Pigskins though, hitting a big one on Oregon on Saturday, and going 4-1 yesterday.
I usually start hot in NFL, but was only one game above 500 going into yesterday, cuz Im usually a dog better. Now that Vegas has "adjusted" the lines, you are getting anywhere from 3-4 extra points with the big underdogs. Look at yesterday.......Colts, Chargers, Cardinals...those were all Vegas covering thier ass. I think the bears were the only 9+ fave to cover. Feel the same about tonight. Could the saints when by 3 TD's? Absolutely. Will they?? I don't think so. I think they will both try to run the ball and control the clock, especially ATL, trying to keep Brees off the field. Falcons and maybe under to me.

Early leans in NBA 10-6 YTD
NJ-Cha over
NO-NY under
Rockets+9
TWolves+8.5 and hoping it goes higher.:toast:

 

[Mustang29]

BillyBatts/Ax and co.....what do you boys think about the CHAR/NJ un of 177.5??
Seems to low to me? Any takes?

 

[pkkingster15]

I would be wary of that 177 numberi n the Charlotte/NJ game. Charlotte has really struggled getting anything going, and has shown to be a very methodical team, even when they are dictating the pace. Against the Knicks, they scored over 200 only after 2 OTs. They couldn't score 60 on Boston, and in general, they are struggling to find out if the offense will run through Felton or Diaw. Granted, they are shooting 37%, which will rise, but I'm just not sure this game will see the 180s. The Nets seem to be fine playing to the other team's tempo and simply adjusting, but if they are playing with this Charlotte team, I don't see why they wouldn't slow it down and get the ball inside to Lopez. Harris should have a fun time penetrating, but he usually doesn't look for the lane until he touches the ball for the second time in a possession.

The only trend I see in favor of the over is that each team tends to run more against bad teams, and I'd say both of these qualify as bad teams. I'm not sure how strong that will be though, considering the struggles the Bobcats have had on offense, and that their defense has been relatively solid.

Just my two cents..

 

[Mustang29]

Good job kingster....info is well noted.

Just trying to get a feel for this game. Not to sure if I want to lay down on it.

Your info def has me thinkin against the un now. Thanks pal.

 

[kegray1]

This lines seems way too low in my eyes.

UTAH -7.5 at home vs Rockets.
Also UTAH -4.5 1stH

--- Rockets are 2-1 beating GS on the road and beating Portland the other night at home after losing @Port. on opening night.

I have seen all 3 Rocket games and the defense played by both GS and Portland was average at best.
Houston has no post options whatsoever so there is no reason to sag off of the shooters yet both teams did in all 3 games. Scola can score,but his post off game is weak and no team should fear him.
I think Williams will defend Brooks better than anything he has seen and AK-47,Boozer,Millsap will more than have their way down low.
Also Okur was back practicing after a bum ankle so he will probably play as well.

I THINK THIS IS A BLOWOUT. Portland had Houston down by over 20 in the 3rdQ on opening night and got off the gas and Houston cut into it to only lose by 9.

UTAH WINS BY 18 OR MORE.

PLAYING:
UTAH (-7.5) for 330 wins 300
UTAH (-4.5)1stH for 110 wins 100.

Good luck

 

[pistol495]

I agree on the UT but my pause is the intensity on the defensive side of the ball just hasnt been there this year although very much improved in the 2H of the LAC game. I follow the Rox as well and agree that UT (as always) is a bad matchup for them because they are physical. This seems like a good set up for a first half play too because of something that "clicked" against the Clipjoint in that 2H.

Was looking at the Knicks 2nite. I am not sold in NO being a road favorite outside the conference and feel like NYK really hasnt played a complete game yet and are on the verge of doing so.

I wonder how teams do off back to back OTs. (AX, any info?) But it would seem to me that they lack a finisher but are playing well enough to win. Hoping Robinson injury wont hurt them too bad = hes been up and down in the first 3.

Also lean to MN too - they played well enough to win that game last night and may do so 2nite. Where does MN fall on the ML scale?

Pistol

 

[kegray1]

The length of Utah on the perimeter should give Houston some issues as well. Ronnie Brewer and AK-47 should be up in the face of the wing bombers(Ariza and Battier). Williams is much bigger and should pick apart Brooks. If you can slow down Brooks and keep Ariza from getting easy looks then Houston doesn't stand much of a chance here.
Like you said, Utah physical style of play gives Rox fits and that will only be worse this year with no Ming or Artest to enforce the style back.