2007 Masters..

[abc]

Its a little early but I wanted to get this thread up. Im sure this tourney will get more views than any other so far. Lets break down the injury news and who you like as sleepers.
First off it will be interesting to see if Freddy Couples diecides to play.
My top 5

1. Tiger
2. Mickelson
3. Stenson
4. Els
5. Ogilvy

Those will obviously be the huge chalk favorites. But I like the way their games are right now. Sure Scott looks good, and if sergio could make a putt.. he could contend here.
Sleepers

1. Tim Clark
2. Angel Cabrera
3. Vaughn Taylor
4. Charles Howell 3

Vaughn and 3 sticks are both Augusta natives and both have been playing well..

I will be back later with injury news. I also think Calchavecia might have some value.

 

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2007 Masters Invitation List
The following players have been invited to compete in the 2007 Masters Tournament, which will be held April 5-8 at Augusta National Golf Club in Augusta, Georgia:

a-Amateur
x-First Masters
w-withdrawn

(basis of qualification in parenthesis)

AARON, Tommy (1)
ALLENBY, Robert (Australia)(15,16,17)
AMES, Stephen (Canada)(5,10,14,16,17)
APPLEBY, Stuart (Australia)(14,16,17)
BADDELEY, Aaron (Australia)(15,17)
BALLESTEROS, Severiano (Spain)(1)
BEEM, Rich (4)
BJORN, Thomas (Denmark)(16)
BREWER JR., Gay (1)
BRYANT, Bart (17)
BURKE JR., Jack (1)
CABRERA, Angel (Argentina)(10,16,17)
CALCAVECCHIA, Mark (15)
CAMPBELL, Chad (10,14,16,17)
CAMPBELL, Michael (New Zealand)(2,16,17)
CASEY, Paul (England)(16,17)
CASPER, Billy (1)
CHOI, K.J. (Korea)(14,16,17)
CINK, Stewart (10,14,16,17)
CLARK, Tim (South Africa)(10,14,16,17)
CLARKE, Darren (N. Ireland)(16)
COODY, Charles (1)
COUPLES, Fred (1,10)
CRANE, Ben (16)
CRENSHAW, Ben (1)
CURTIS, Ben (3,14)
DIMARCO, Chris (12,16,17)
DONALD, Luke (England)(13,14,16,17)
x-DREDGE, Bradley (Wales)(16)
DURANT, Joe (14,16,17)
x-EDFORS, Johan (Sweden)(16)
ELS, Ernie (South Africa)(3,12,14,16,17)
FALDO, Nick (England)(1)
FASTH, Niclas (Sweden)(16,17)
x-FERRIE, Kenneth (England)(11)
FLOYD, Raymond (1)
FORD, Doug (1)
FUNK, Fred (5)
FURYK, Jim (2,11,12,14,16,17)
GARCIA, Sergio (Spain)(13,16,17)
GLOVER, Lucas (14,16,17)
GOALBY, Bob (1)
GOOSEN, Retief (South Africa)(2,10,14,16,17)
GOYDOS, Paul (17)
xa-GUERRIER, Julien (France) (7)
HAMILTON, Todd (3)
HARRINGTON, Padraig (Ireland)(11,16,17)
x-HENRY, J.J. (14)
HERRON, Tim (14)
HOWELL III, Charles (15,17)
HOWELL, David (England)(16,17)
IMMELMAN, Trevor (South Africa)(14,16,17)
JIMENEZ, Miguel Angel (Spain)(10)
JOHNSON, Zach (14)
x-KARLSSON, Robert (Sweden)(16,17)
KATAYAMA, Shingo (Japan)(16,17)
KELLY, Jerry (14)
xa-KELLY, John (6-B)
LANGER, Bernhard (Germany)(1)
LOVE III, Davis (14,16,17)
LYLE, Sandy (Scotland)(1)
x-MATTESON, Troy (14)
MAYFAIR, Billy (10)
MICHEEL, Shaun (4,13)
MICKELSON, Phil (1,4,11,14,15,16,17)
MIZE, Larry (1)
MONTGOMERIE, Colin (Scotland)(11,16,17)
NICKLAUS, Jack (1)
OBERHOLSER, Arron (10,14,16,17)
OGILVY, Geoff (Australia)(2,10,14,15,16,17)
O'HERN, Nick (Australia)(11,16,17)
OLAZABAL, Jose Maria (Spain)(1,10,14,16,17)
O'MEARA, Mark (1)
PALMER, Arnold (1)
PAMPLING, Rod (Australia)(10,14,16,17)
PERNICE JR., Tom (14)
PETTERSSON, Carl (Sweden)(14,16,17)
PLAYER, Gary (South Africa)(1)
POULTER, Ian (England)(16,17)
x-QUIGLEY, Brett (14)
xa-RAMSAY, Richie (Scotland)(6-A)
ROLLINS, John (15,17)
ROSE, Justin (England)(17)
SABBATINI, Rory (South Africa)(14,16)
SCOTT, Adam (Australia)(13,14,16,17)
x-SINGH, Jeev Milkha (India)(16,17)
SINGH, Vijay (Fiji)(1,4,10,11,14,15,16,17)
SLUMAN, Jeff (11)
STADLER, Craig (1)
STENSON, Henrik (Sweden)(15,16,17)
STRICKER, Steve (11,14,17)
x-TANIHARA, Hideto (Japan)
TAYLOR, Vaughn (14)
TOMS, David (14,16,17)
VERPLANK, Scott (10,14)
x-VILLEGAS, Camilo (Colombia)(14)
xa-WATABU, Casey (8)
WATSON, Tom (1)
WEIR, Mike (Canada)(1,10,11,14,16,17)
WESTWOOD, Lee (England)(16)
x-WETTERICH, Brett (14,16,17)
x-WILSON, Dean (14)
xa-WOMACK, Dave (9)
WOODS, Tiger (1,2,3,4,10,14,15,16,17)
WOOSNAM, Ian (Wales)(1)
x-YANG, Y. E. (Korea)(16,17)
ZOELLER, Fuzzy (1)

 

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I can tell you right now Mike Campbell couldnt beat Arnold Palmer :mj07: Still waitin for matchups,

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Will throw my hat in ring this week on outrights-

Place only (top 5)both 30/1 @ Expekt
Stricker and Ohern

 

[redsfan]

Anyone got any info on likely course conditions this year?

 

[Trizzle]

I live very near Augusta and we have had only a sprinkle of rain in the past 4 weeks. It has been unseasonably dry for Spring. So I am guessing it is hard and fast. May help the shorter hitters stay in the game with Tiger, Vijay and the bombers.

 

[CWood97]

I live very near Augusta and we have had only a sprinkle of rain in the past 4 weeks. It has been unseasonably dry for Spring. So I am guessing it is hard and fast. May help the shorter hitters stay in the game with Tiger, Vijay and the bombers.

Interesting, I was leaning the other way due to the cool temperatures in the forecast. Lows in the 30's and highs in the 60's will lengthen the course somewhat. Plus, dry-hard greens will favor the long hitters.

 

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Yea , supposed to be no rain, which helps the short hitters.


First play is an obvious one

Tiger woods will win his 213th masters +155 (@ 5 dimes)

Guy is on top of his game, and this is the perfect course for him.

 

[Stanley]

Outright plays (total stake per play: 1pt)

Vijay Singh to win 18/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places]
Outstanding offer from BetInternet: 1/4 1-2-3-4-5-6 place terms and a refund of your stake if your player is clear leader after one of the first three rounds, but doesn't win. Together with 18s on Vijay, it's more than enough to tempt me. He is a former winner (2000) and has finished no worse than 8th in any of the last five years here. It may seem that he has not been in too many headlines this year, but he is ranked no.1 on the PGA Tour Money List and FedEx Cup Points List, courtesy of two wins, a feat that only Tiger has matched. And his overall game is clearly improving: when winning the Arnold Palmer Invitational three weeks ago, he ranked 2nd in greens in regulation and he matched that feat the following week in the WGC-CA Championship. This may be Tiger's event to lose, but Vijay should be counted upon to at least guarantee another top-6 finish.

Retief Goosen to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places]
Twelve months ago Goosen was a best-price 14/1 to win this event and he duly recorded his second consecutive 3rd place finish at Augusta National to add to his 2nd place finish in 2002. He may not have rediscovered his January form in the Middle East which netted him the Qatar Masters title, but there have been signs recently that he is nearing that form again. He was 4th in the Johnnie Walker Classic last month and was very much in contention for the Arnold Palmer Invitational until a final round 75. But this is an event in which course form is very important and if he were to show his earlier season form, it would be this week. And it is not only the Augusta National course that suits Goosen, but Georgia in general. Since 2002, he has won twice in this State and finished in the top-4 in nine of thirteen starts - a ratio of 69% which compares to 19% on the PGA Tour outside Georgia. As with Singh, he really should be a strong contender for another top-6 finish and his relatively indifferent form is more than compensated by the odds available this year.

Geoff Ogilvy to win 33/1 e.w. @ BetInternet [6 places]
Only one player has ever won this event on his debut (1979 - Fuzzy Zoeller) and so neither of the two remaining selections were considered last year, but they both challenged for the lead and deserve attention this time around. In Ogilvy's case, he was 4th after the opening round before finishing 16th, but he would, of course, go even better in his next Major and win the U.S. Open. Because of all the off-course demands of being a new Major champion, it was understandable that his game should dip somewhat until he returned to the Australasian Tour at the end of last year, but there are clear signs that it is moving up a level again over the last month. He finished 2nd in the WGC World Matchplay, 14th in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and 3rd in the WGC-CA Championship. He is clearly a better player than twelve months ago and more capable of winning this event, so 33/1 seems fair odds this week.

Arron Oberholser to finish in the top-ten 10/1 @ SkyBet
A year ago Oberholser finished the first round one shot ahead of Ogilvy in 3rd place and he would finish one shot ahead of him in 14th at the end of the week to earn the Top Debutant title. It had looked as though he would struggle to repeat that feat as he had been forced to withdraw from the season-opening Mercedes-Benz Championship because of a bulging disc in his back and he would not return until the WGC Matchplay Championship when he lost in the first round to David Toms. But he has played in four events since and has finished in the top-10 on two occasions and on one of the other occasions he was in the top-10 at the cut. Obviously, he is playing against a much stronger field this week, but given his success here last year, he looks overpriced at 10/1.

 

[phar.lap]

Baddeley 100/1 each way (1/4 top 5)
At Sportingbet.

I wouldn't like to see this guy win it....rather any other Aussie frankly. But 100/1 is value.

 

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Ok here is what i see at first glance lookin at matchups. The greek has them listed but not the odds yet.
Obelhoser over Westwood
Cabrera over Clarke..

As well as a couple others, anyone see anything yet?

 

[phar.lap]

72 hole matchup

Poulter -125 to beat Monty
At Sportingbet

 

[UGA12]

A few long shots I like:shrug:

1/4 unit on each to win

Chris Dimarco 80/1
Mike Wier 100/1
Vaughn Taylor 200/1
stewart cink 150/1

all at the greek

GL guys

 

[InSpades]

Ok here is what i see at first glance lookin at matchups. The greek has them listed but not the odds yet.
Obelhoser over Westwood
Cabrera over Clarke..

As well as a couple others, anyone see anything yet?

Along with your picks, I am thinking about fading Goosen heavy. He struggled horribly in the Nissan Open which is comparable to a major course.

Any thoughts?

IS

 

[joeseppy]

Along with your picks, I am thinking about fading Goosen heavy. He struggled horribly in the Nissan Open which is comparable to a major course.

Any thoughts?

IS

That's a brave call, his average FP over the last five years here is 6.8

 

[DOGS THAT BARK]

Ditto Joe--He might not fire a lick--but hard to buck history--

I'm ticking ratings on Euro's up a notch due to unseasonable cold temps-- frost delays would notsurprisethis week.

 

[abc]

I just went big on langer over funk.. that will be my play of the tourney :shrug: Still crunching numbers right now though. Funk is old, he has been playin decent, but he struggles here

 

[redsfan]

. Funk is old, he has been playin decent, but he struggles here

Bernard is no spring chicken himself - but does have a Masters pedigree

 

[Marra]

Stanley - Another thing I like about Singh is that he is 18th in putting this year - Seems to have either found a putter/stance/grip or something to this liking to give him confidence.

Bodes well for this tourney. Good luck.

For long shots - I like Paul Casey and David Howell - Anyone have thoughts on those two guys?

 

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Here goes fellas.. Lookin for a big week here. I was in the black overall last week, just not here.. I didnt flat bet, i went huge on olazabel which saved me.

Flat betting these ( Ones in Blue are from the greek.. Ones from the Green are 5 dimes )
Scott Verplank -125 over Monty
Geoff Ogilvy -110 over Charlie 3 sticks
Angel Cabera -180 over Darren Clarke ( Not too sure if the juice is worth it though)
Brett Wetterich -142 over Couples
Calc -103 over Camillo
Fasth -135 over Michael Campbell
Goydos -129 over sluman ( Risking 3.8, got a feeling slu withdraws)
Richie Ramsay (amatuer) -135 over Crenshaw
Mark O mera +106 over Shingo Katayama
Justin Rose -110 over Davis Love 3

Big play of the touney
Bernhard Langer -155 over Fred Funk
The ones im goin 2 units on this one i am going 6.5.

Also one outright..
Tiger Woods to win +155