~ It's finally here! :00hour
Now, I play the world cup mostly for fun. Not to make money really, just for a little action to enjoy the games some more. If I make a good call or a nice chunk of cash along the way, that's an added bonus. Don't get me wrong, I play to win. I just don't play for that much and I enjoy betting on teams that I'd like to see win more than I like betting the ones that should win. I've been following and betting enough world cups to know that this thing is a total crapshoot, especially in the group stages. So basically, I'm just here to enjoy myself and hopefully cash some tickets along the way.
:toast:
So, without further ado, here's who I like to win the whole thing....
FUTURES
Netherlands 10/1 $40 to win $400
Italy 12/1 $26 to win $312 OUT
France 15/1 $18 to win $288 OUT :mj07:
Portugal 20/1 $18 to win $360 OUT
Ivory Coast 30/1 $10 to win $300 OUT
Spain/Brazil 19/10 $100 to win $190
GRΣΣCΣ 150/1 $5 to win $750 *HOMER ALERT:scared OUT
Placed these futures (as well as a few props and sides that I'll list below) at the Las Vegas Hilton a few weeks ago, so some of the odds I got then maybe aren't as good as what I can get now. But let me give a brief explanation of my thinking here.
I've ruled out 3 of the big favorites:
-England (Overrated, typically don't show well in the WC, lost their best defender in Rio Ferdinand & I don't give a shit who JP Morgan has projected to win it)
-Germany (Losing one of their best players and leaders in Ballack for the WC will hurt them and they tend to get too conservative in the later rounds IMO)
-Argentina (Crazy coach who shouldn't be trusted to make the right decisions in crunch time, can't settle on a lineup, will find a way to lose it for his country)
What I hope will happen by ruling out these three countries is that one of the six teams with longer odds (realistically 5, but whatever, my Greeks have surprised before) can win it. I've covered my ass by taking the +plus odds for one of Spain or Brazil to win it. So worst case scenario (assuming I'm right about the other 3 I've eliminated) is one of the two heavy favorites win it and I still win about $75 on my futures.
I want to note that I LOVE LOVE LOVE the Dutch in this Cup. I really think this team is talented, plays a great style of football and is really flying under the radar going into this. I think Italy has a better shot than most people think to repeat. And hopefully Drogba is healthy enough to play through his injury because I really liked C?te d'Ivoire coming in and news of his elbow came after I had placed these. I realize that at lease one of my futures will be done after the group stage (most likely Iv. Coast or Portugal) but at that point the odds won't be any better.
On to the next batch of plays....
Now, I play the world cup mostly for fun. Not to make money really, just for a little action to enjoy the games some more. If I make a good call or a nice chunk of cash along the way, that's an added bonus. Don't get me wrong, I play to win. I just don't play for that much and I enjoy betting on teams that I'd like to see win more than I like betting the ones that should win. I've been following and betting enough world cups to know that this thing is a total crapshoot, especially in the group stages. So basically, I'm just here to enjoy myself and hopefully cash some tickets along the way.
:toast:
So, without further ado, here's who I like to win the whole thing....
FUTURES
Netherlands 10/1 $40 to win $400
Italy 12/1 $26 to win $312 OUT
France 15/1 $18 to win $288 OUT :mj07:
Portugal 20/1 $18 to win $360 OUT
Ivory Coast 30/1 $10 to win $300 OUT
Spain/Brazil 19/10 $100 to win $190
GRΣΣCΣ 150/1 $5 to win $750 *HOMER ALERT:scared OUT
Placed these futures (as well as a few props and sides that I'll list below) at the Las Vegas Hilton a few weeks ago, so some of the odds I got then maybe aren't as good as what I can get now. But let me give a brief explanation of my thinking here.
I've ruled out 3 of the big favorites:
-England (Overrated, typically don't show well in the WC, lost their best defender in Rio Ferdinand & I don't give a shit who JP Morgan has projected to win it)
-Germany (Losing one of their best players and leaders in Ballack for the WC will hurt them and they tend to get too conservative in the later rounds IMO)
-Argentina (Crazy coach who shouldn't be trusted to make the right decisions in crunch time, can't settle on a lineup, will find a way to lose it for his country)
What I hope will happen by ruling out these three countries is that one of the six teams with longer odds (realistically 5, but whatever, my Greeks have surprised before) can win it. I've covered my ass by taking the +plus odds for one of Spain or Brazil to win it. So worst case scenario (assuming I'm right about the other 3 I've eliminated) is one of the two heavy favorites win it and I still win about $75 on my futures.
I want to note that I LOVE LOVE LOVE the Dutch in this Cup. I really think this team is talented, plays a great style of football and is really flying under the radar going into this. I think Italy has a better shot than most people think to repeat. And hopefully Drogba is healthy enough to play through his injury because I really liked C?te d'Ivoire coming in and news of his elbow came after I had placed these. I realize that at lease one of my futures will be done after the group stage (most likely Iv. Coast or Portugal) but at that point the odds won't be any better.
On to the next batch of plays....
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