2018-19 Season

[BASON]

Lots of talk already about the Chelsea/Spurs game. Been thinking for a while on this and here is how I am gong to play it:

FH Un 1 -105 - Spurs happy to play defense with a weakened offensive lineup and a 1-0 lead and Chelsea is having trouble scoring so I think they will be happy to keep it close in the FH and open up in the SH. Debated between this and the Draw at +116, but you are not getting enough value in the draw in my opinion. Obviously, if you win the Un 1 you win the draw, but you are only giving up $21 for 1 goal of protection with teams that likely will have trouble scoring. I will pay that as I will be very surprised if there is more than one goal in the FH.

Will see if there is a halftime play here also as I do not like the Chelsea #, but may like it if we get a 0-0 FH.

 

[lowell]

Just starting to get back into the swing of things.

I just can not avoid playing this tomorrow:

Heerenveen +2.5 -110 - Maybe I am getting sucked into this, but they just played a few days ago to a 4-4 draw. Ajax is battling hard for the league title and still is in the Champions League, so I am not sure about their motivation here. They have a tough road game at Feyenord this weekend and have Real coming up in the CL. They may even rest a couple players. This is Heerenveen's season. They have to feel confident after coming back from a 3-1 halftime deficit and getting the draw late in the game. Its a bit of a risk as Ajax is by far the better team, but I am counting on Ajax just trying to do what they have to to win. If Heerenveen can stay away from giving up early goals, I feel really good about their chances to cover this number.

Nice call. I jumped on board.

 

[BASON]

Thanks, should have been my only play, but I got sucked into the Spurs game.

 

[BASON]

Asia Cup

I think I am going to bet both draws in tomorrow's quarter final games. Neither game ended in a draw today so I have to think we see at least one tomorrow. You have the home country UAE in one game and Qatar is another that does not give up goals. The lines are also telling here as you would think Australia (who UAE has never beaten) and the favored South Koreans would be much larger favorites. Instead they are both just a little over Even and both draws are under +200. I will bite and hope for at least one draw. Nothing big, just some morning action. Will play them one at a time so I can adjust the second bet if I need to.

 

[BASON]

I did a write up for Qatar first and then I took it down and put up the draws. Should have stuck with my gut as I had a feeling they could win today. I will stick with the UAE draw which is what I liked from the start with this game.

 

[PittsburghKid]

Wish I would have taken the under in every Asian cup game.. swear it seems like 80% have went under


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[BASON]

Yup, I played a lot of FH draws, I just do not post all of that stuff. Can not believe one of the quarterfinal games did not end in a draw. Should have just stayed away from posting anything. Frustrating because I was on point with liking the dogs.

I am all over Mainz tomorrow. I bet it early in the week, but I would still play it wherever it sits now. Nurnberg did absolutely nothing at the break to improve their team. Fans are irate and already resigned to the fact that they are going back down once again. They got a couple players healthy and played their best team last weekend at home and still lost 3-1. Their defense is bad and they are going to have a hard time winning any more games this year especially on the road.

 

[BASON]

Taking some of the Mainz winnings and putting it on the Frankfurt Ov 3.

 

[BASON]

Good day for me today.

I do not like much tomorrow but going to make one play:

Spurs Un 2.5 - As most of you know I do not like playing many Unders, but the last 6 times these teams have played the game has been 1-0. That is hard to ignore, and enough to get me to place a small bet on it. May also play FH draw at -102 because the FH Un 1 is -143.

 

[Vig]

Nice to see you back in form, Bason!

 

[Penguinfan]

Good day for me today.

I do not like much tomorrow but going to make one play:

Spurs Un 2.5 - As most of you know I do not like playing many Unders, but the last 6 times these teams have played the game has been 1-0. That is hard to ignore, and enough to get me to place a small bet on it. May also play FH draw at -102 because the FH Un 1 is -143.

Survived a missed PK and a scoreless 2nd half to cash this one. It's about time one like this goes our way.

 

[BASON]

Thanks Vig and Penguin!

I have been betting soccer a long time and not sure I can remember a game where I hit an Under and won because of a missed penalty. There are hundreds of games where I lost an over due to a miss penalty, but can not remember an under. I am sure it happened before but I only bet a handful on unders a year.

For further clarification, because I realize unders are a part of soccer bettering. Most of the time when I really like an under, I will play it another way. I will play a FH draw or the FH under, instead of the under for the game and then look to the 2H. This is something I started many years ago. I rarely post those plays because I like to limit the plays I post and I also try not to get too complicated by getting into 2H plays as it is tough for folks to follow and get those in. Today was a good example. I played the Under for the game as well as the FH Under. Once the FH under lost, I played the SH under.

May not be helpful but thought it was worth an explanation.

 

[BASON]

Asia Cup

Qatar to advance -160/FH Un .5 +126 - Qatar has been playing very well in this tournament and should be able to shut down UAE. I think they win the game but I am going to play it conservatively and take the advance line only because UAE is at home. Not something I would usually do because you are paying a lot for this, but I want to protect against the full game draw. Willing to take the shot with the 0-0 FH as the Un .5 pays +126 versus the FH draw at -133. I think we see a very, very conservative FH by both teams and I do not think UAE can score. Laying off the Under for the game, because you could see what happened today. Once there is a goal, the game gets very sloppy and we get more goals. The bet is that Qatar's defense holds up and will score against the weaker back line of UAE. Don't mind playing it this way as I think if there is a goal in FH it comes from Qatar, if not, we likely win the FH and can still make a halftime play.

Just action plays as I am not comfortable risking a lot in this tournament.

 

[BASON]

Premier

Man U -1.5 - have to keep playing them until they lose. They are playing with great confidence and scoring almost 3 a game since the coaching change. Burnley is a bad road team especially against top teams and has a tendency to lose by 2 or more goals. See no reason Man U does not win by 2 goals here. My guess is 3-0.

 

[BASON]

One more for today

Wolves Ov 2.5 -107 - I like this one. The line is based on Wolves season, but lately they have scored goals at home. West Ham is a total crap shoot this year, buy they do give up goals on the road. They got Arauntovic signed up so I expect them to be in good form. Maybe not 4-3 like the Leicester game, but would not be surprised to see a 3-2 type game here.

 

[Crookity]

Premier

Man U -1.5 - have to keep playing them until they lose. They are playing with great confidence and scoring almost 3 a game since the coaching change. Burnley is a bad road team especially against top teams and has a tendency to lose by 2 or more goals. See no reason Man U does not win by 2 goals here. My guess is 3-0.

Just when you think Man U has it figured out:facepalm: I rode these guys the last two weeks, I expected more from them.

 

[BASON]

Yeah, of course they don't win when we bet on them. Thankful that Wolves scored 3 and I should have pounded Qatar even more than I did.

Big win for New Castle today!!

 

[Penguinfan]

One more for today

Wolves Ov 2.5 -107 - I like this one. The line is based on Wolves season, but lately they have scored goals at home. West Ham is a total crap shoot this year, buy they do give up goals on the road. They got Arauntovic signed up so I expect them to be in good form. Maybe not 4-3 like the Leicester game, but would not be surprised to see a 3-2 type game here.

Nice call on this one. I feel like we've been fortunate to win a couple of the total plays recently but I'll take it given the number we lost that shouldn't have.

That Wolves game could have had 5 or 6 easy.

 

[BASON]

I agree, there should have been at least one penalty in the first half, but at least it evened out in the end. Hope the ball continues to bounce our way today:

Southampton Ov 2.5 -104 - 8 of the 10 games Southhampton has played with the new coach have gone over 2.5 and I think that will continue today. Another line set low based on history, but I think we see some goals in this one.

Watford +1/Liverpool Ov 3 - Going to parlay these two just to limit exposure today especially given my luck in Spurs games. I do not trust Spurs at all right now and Watford has played them well this year (2-1 and 2-2), so I think they will stay in this one especially with Spurs at less than full strength. Liverpool should be very motivated after the City loss yesterday and I think Leicester can get one. Liverpool almost averages 3 goals a game at home this year, so I think they get 3 themselves.

If you want some more action here are a few I am considering using in parlays:

Barca -2 - They lost 2-0 at Sevilla with a weak roster, but they own Sevilla at home so I expect them to take care of business today with the majority of their starters back. Like the over 3.5 if you can get it at that number. Without an away goal, Barca needs to score some goals today. Barca to advance at +115 has some value also.

Atalanta +.5 - They will give Juve all they can handle at home.

Roma Ov 2.5 - Both teams scoring in the Cup, this one should definitely go over

Strasbourg +- Already beat Bordeaux twice this year and are in good form

 

[BASON]

Should have pounded that Roma Over, was easy money.