2018-19 Season

[BASON]

Not a bad day yesterday.

One for today

Cologne Ov 3.5 Even - It is almost unheard of to see a 3.5 goal total in Bundesliga 2 so I am going with it. I seriously can not remember the last time I saw a total of 3.5.

 

[Redleg]

Not a bad day yesterday.

One for today

Cologne Ov 3.5 Even - It is almost unheard of to see a 3.5 goal total in Bundesliga 2 so I am going with it. I seriously can not remember the last time I saw a total of 3.5.

Winner great call

 

[BASON]

Thanks Redleg!

Tough FH but big SH for the easy winner and a nice start to the weekend.

 

[BASON]

Out of pocket all day tomorrow so just putting one game in and sticking to today's theory

Hoffenheim Ov 3.5 -120 - Now there are some more 3.5's in the Bundesliga, but not that many at -120 or higher. Hannover is bad and they got a win last week. They also tend to get a goal on the road, so I think we see at least a 3-1 game.

 

[BASON]

Playing the Ov 2.5 in the FA Cup game as I really do not like either side right now, but see a 2-1 game either way.

Also parlayed Dortmund/Roma

 

[PittsburghKid]

Playing the Ov 2.5 in the FA Cup game as I really do not like either side right now, but see a 2-1 game either way.

Also parlayed Dortmund/Roma

I should have done the same. Got sucked into that line move


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[BASON]

Yeah, I did not understand that move at all. While Man U showed some of their true colors in CL last week, they are still playing better than Chelsea. The line move scared me away from Man U, but hopefully the over hits.

 

[BASON]

That was a kick in the balls. Chelsea absolutely sucks. Get 2-0 at the half and can not get a goal. They never really threatened. Sari is a joke.

AND, Dortmund is done. I am calling it now, they will not win the league. Today puts the nail in their coffin. You have to beat the worst team in the league if you are going to win the league. The coach continues to change the lineups every game and is not up to managing a championship team. They certainly look like a team that can not handle being at the top and Bayern is sitting back and licking their chops.

Speaking of Bayern:

Liverpool -.25 -118 - I like Liverpool to win this game, but since I am playing it rather big, I am playing the asian line so I get half my bet back in case it is a draw. I have said all year that Bayern is not the same powerhouse. Still a very good team, but lacking the speed and attack of prior years. They are also vulnerable in the back. Liverpool is rested and plays well at home. This is a perfect CL betting situation. Liverpool has to win at home to have any chance to advance and Bayern likes their chances at home so they will not mind losing by a goal especially if they get an away goal as Liverpool is a very poor road team in the CL. I think this is a good betting situation, so I am making a larger than usual wager.

Lyon +.75 -117 - Another I am playing on the asian line, but not as big as Liverpool. I think Lyon can win or draw this game. They gave Man City all they could handle and are very tough at home. Another situation where the away team knows they can take them at home, so you may not get their A effort.

 

[BASON]

Fucking Liverpool, at least I was right to play it on the Asian line, got half back and won the Lyon game. Not the day I wanted but I will take it. Can not remember the last CL game day where we saw two 0-0 draws, especially with the offensive power of these four teams. Should have know when the Liverpool line stayed at 2.5.

Tomorrow

Juventus Ov 2 - Everyone expects a day like today tomorrow in this one. Well, its bizarro world so I am expecting some goals in this one. Maybe a stupid bet after today, but I am sticking to it.

Not sure about the other game. It is Man City or nothing, but not sure I trust them in this one. Schalke has been struggling all year, but I expect a great effort from them. For now, I am staying away.

 

[Vig]

I like the over in Juve/Atletico too, B. Have to be goals in one of these games, so it's likely to be the one where it was an under read. Good luck buddy!

 

[PittsburghKid]

First leg of CL matches were about as defensive as I?ve seen in a long time. Some of these teams have to open up in leg 2?


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[BASON]

Took a week off to drink some bourbon in KY. Had a great time, but time to get back to work.

Kid, I was shocked at the play in the first leg of CL. Strong teams are going through the motions on the road knowing they will take them at home. Think we will likely see some high scoring home wins. Will likely have to lay some chalk in the next round.

Small play today

Betis +.5 +120 - Valencia is playing well, but they still tend to draw a lot of games (last 5 league games have been draws and have 15 in 25 games!). The first leg was a draw and I think it is highly possible we get another one, but I will take Betis plus the half at plus money as they have played well on the road and are actually ahead of Valencia in the league.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

Best of luck today.

I am heading over with a group in a few months to do some bourbon tours as well as Keenland during college football season. I will reach back out for any recommendations as time gets closer.

 

[BASON]

Please do. Keenland is one of my favorite places on earth. I enjoyed some of the new places on Whiskey Row in Louisville.

 

[BASON]

Small German parlay today

Dortmund Ov 3/Union Berlin Ov 2.5

 

[BASON]

Leipzig -225 - I know it is a lot of juice but playing against Nuremberg against any decent team has been solid money all year long as they simply are not as good as most teams in the Bundesliga. If you do not want to lay it, parlay them with Leverkusen.

Barca Pk -120 - I really liked them in the Cup and I see no reason why to not like them again this afternoon.

For the hell of it accumulators

B&H/Wolves/Stuttgart/Napoli - pays about +900

Leipzig/Leverkusen/Barca PK/Stuttgart - +500

 

[BASON]

Great start to the day and all parlays remain in play.

Stuttgart -160 - This line tells you all you need to know because it is ridiculous. Stuttgart sucks and they are now -160! This line was -120 yesterday and I hit it rather hard. Stuttgart has only won 4 games all year, so being this large of a favorite is crazy so you have to play it in my opinion. Playing against Nurnberg and Hannover has been money all year long. It is scary to lay this number on a bad team, but this line as well as the move is telling you something. I have them at -120 and in both parlays already, but I would not hesitate to lay it or maybe wait to see if it drops a little overnight.

Napoli +120 and/or Pk -140 - Another one I already played and have in parlays. Plus Kid and Vig have already covered this in detail. Juve only cares about CL right now as they have a very tough game coming up. That is why they got Ronaldo and not advancing at this stage makes the season a failure. The league is over so if they are going to lose it will be this game.

I will wait on the Barca result to see if I add any more. If they win, I will likely add $$ to Stuttgart in the morning.

 

[BASON]

I have a lot riding on this Stuttgart game so not adding anymore.

I did add a Chelsea/Liverpool/Stuttgart parlay last night.

Everything hit yesterday, so hopefully a big day today.

 

[BASON]

Stuttgart was easy money!! Big win and already hit a couple parlays with a couple more pending.

In a unique situation. I rarely hedge as I have covered in past discussions but I will make an exception today. If Napoli wins, I crush it, even if they draw I win one big parlay, so the only way I lose is if Juve wins, so I will make a small play equal to what I have outstanding on the pars on Juve Pk +116. Only doing this because I have Napoli both ways (ML and PK) to finish off two parlays and getting + money on Juve Pk. Plus already have big gains for the weekend. I still do not think Napoli will lose, but no reason to lose money if you can easily prevent it.

Will look at Liverpool halftime also if I need to since I need them now to finish off a parlay.

 

[BASON]

I called that Dortmund was done a couple weeks ago and I will call Liverpool done today. Not going to win the league with 7 draws. They had plenty of chances to win today and simply could not execute.