2018-19 Season

[BASON]

Since the Italy game went over, I am adding:

Ecuador/Japan Ov 2.5 -103 - Like the line move down and I think both teams need to win this game given the group. Was tempted to take Ecuador as I think they are the better team, but looking for a 2-1 game.

 

[BigGaycapper]

Great call on the over!

 

[BASON]

Thanks. Should have just taken the win and moved on.

Poland was bad. Thought maybe the home field would be the difference, but the speed differential in that game was as one sided as I have seen in some time. Columbia has some ridiculously fast players.

Will take a stab at a couple more today. Looking at the US as they have a decent squad that could have been much better if they added Adams and Sargent instead of sending them to the Gold Cup. Others are tough, but looking more into Uruguay.

Will be back.

 

[BASON]

The US game is intriguing. Honestly say I do not know much about the Ukraine. All I know is that they are all home based players which means they should look a lot like Ukrainian club teams. The US has a strong squad with some very good German based players a few of which will likely be on the next senior team. On the surface this game sets up as a draw, but the US has to be motivated to win this group because if they finish second they very likely will play France in the round of 16 who is loaded and is the favorite. Nigeria and Qatar are no pushovers either. I will take a shot with the US +120 and use the Pk line in a parlay with a couple others.

In the parlay I will add Qatar +1 as I think Nigeria is getting too much credit here. Qatar has been progressing well as a country in preparation for hosting the World Cup. I think they can frustrate Nigeria. I will also use the Ov 3 in the Utrecht/Vitesse game. First games of a back and back tend to be low scoring, but Utrecht has to be aggressive in this one at some point and Vitesse can score. May be slow going, but should see some goals in the second half. Uruguay +108 is also a candidate as they are the better team on paper but these SA teams can be so unpredictable, but Columbia and Ecuador played well yesterday.

Just using pars to reduce exposure as these initial games are tough to cap. Will consider a French league par with some of Kids picks likely without the Caen game as that line move is scary.

 

[BASON]

US game was a perfect example of an organized, disciplined team that makes no mistakes beating a team likely with better talent. Something Kid and I talked about in the past. Ukraine played great disciplined soccer while the US was all over the place. They made defensive mistakes that cost them the game, but even more importantly, their midfield could not create chances and they relied way too much on Durkin and Dest to push forward who both turned the ball over at an alarming pace. Very bad result for the US. Now they are in a must win situation on Monday against a confident Nigerian team. We will see what this team is made of and if Ramos can coach at all.

I actually played Bordeaux + as that line move was as crazy as I have seen in some time. It was just too much to ignore.

I am going to watch the rest of the first round of the U20 and then look for plays in the round of 16. Just too much uncertainty though all the overs was a great play today!

 

[BASON]

German Cup

Leipzig+1 - I can not get last year's game out of my head. Loved Bayern last year against Frankfurt and they were terrible. All year I have said that Bayern is not the Bayern of old and has some issues that need to be resolved to get back to their old form. Leipzig is hot and I think they give Bayern all they can handle today so I will gladly take the +1.

I am also parlaying this with Barca -165. I know Kid is on the other side, but I think Barca will win today.

 

[BASON]

I know Kid did a rant on VAR and I have done plenty in the past, but it certainly ripped me a new one yesterday. I needed that goal in the Inter game to cap off a 4-team parlay. That one really hurt.

Love watching the English Championship promotion game. Richest game in the world now valued at about $170 million pounds. Going to take me all morning to figure out how to hook up my computer to the the TV so I can watch it on the big screen as it is only on ESPN+ (yet another reason I hate ESPN, there is no reason that can not put this game on ESPN News as they are showing nothing this morning, all they are doing is trying to get more subscribers, which I think is disgraceful). It is a tough game to bet, but based on how Villa has dominated Derby in their two games this year, it is hard not to like them today so I am playing:

Villa +105

Germany promotion game gets totally overshadowed by the English game, but it is also a big game today. And yes, it is on television today after U20 world cup games. Union Berlin payed great in the first game and got the 2-2 draw on the road. They now come home where they are very strong while Stuttgart has struggled on the road all season. I was surprised by the first result and think Stuttgart is in trouble. I am going with goals today. Union would be happy with a 0-0 draw but Stuttgart has to press the pace today which has to open up the game. First half may be slow but we should see some goals in the second half.

Union Berlin Ov 2.5 -125

I have no faith in Ramos and his ability to get this US team into shape, especially after that pathetic press conference after the Ukraine loss. He sounded like an idiot. They are backed into a corner today against a talented Nigeria team. They need to win, but they certainly can not lose. A draw and a strong win against Qatar likely moves them on as a third place team. I am not confident they can win. If I had to play it I would play the draw but I am going to just watch.

Totals have adjusted today in the U20 WC so I do not see anything very strong. I will use the Ukraine in a parlay or two as Qatar looked really bad in their first game.

I will have all the TVs going today watching soccer and lacrosse. Exactly how I want to spend Memorial Day.

Have a great day all and please remember everyone that came before us and those risking their lives today so that all of us can enjoy our freedom!

 

[tt boy]

Nice hit on Villa B,,, you were right about the 1st half being slow in Germany,.0-0 after 45

 

[BASON]

Stuttgart got what they deserved yesterday. Have no idea what that player was doing on the free kick, but if that goal holds in the 17th minute, the game definitely goes over. Just another day of VAR miscues. It is starting to take some of the love out of the game, just like in every other sport. They have to figure out how to use it or it is going to drive me nuts.

Playing Columbia -2 in the FH tomorrow in the U20 WC. They should destroy Tahiti, but I will stick to the FH as they will want to get the lead early.

 

[johnnyb]

Who u like in Europa final, bason?

Don?t think I saw u or kid mention the match recently....


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[BASON]

That is because I really do not like the game that much. Hate that is being played in Azerbaijan. The game is much more meaningful to Arsenal than Chelsea, but I have had a hard time betting on Arsenal all year long. Twist my arm and I take the Ov 2.5 as my favorite play for the game.

 

[BASON]

Easy money on Columbia in the FH. Tahitian goalie made a couple strong saves or it could have been much worse.

My guess is Poland/Senegal ends in a draw, so adding a little to the second half draw at Even money.

 

[johnnyb]

That is because I really do not like the game that much. Hate that is being played in Azerbaijan. The game is much more meaningful to Arsenal than Chelsea, but I have had a hard time betting on Arsenal all year long. Twist my arm and I take the Ov 2.5 as my favorite play for the game.

As an Armenian, I hear ya 100% on location of game. U see that mkhitaryn couldnt even make the trip?

Disgusting.

Sorry, didn?t mean to bring up politics, but...


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[BASON]

Yeah, it was just a poor choice, but that is what FIFA does best. English fans could not even get there. They had to return tickets.

Played the 2H over, so actually won a couple bucks on it to end a good day.

 

[BASON]

Nigeria +135 - This line caught my eye. Based on the two games played you would think this line would be reversed. After all Ukraine beat USA 2-0 and USA beat Nigeria 2-0. Also, all Nigeria need is a draw to likely advance (looks like you are going to have to have at least 4 points with even goal differential to have a chance to advance). My guess is that Ukraine simply sits back and plays defense which means Nigeria will not have to play much defense which is their weakness. Possible that Ukraine makes some lineup changes also. I am playing this solely based on the line as it just does not look right to me.

For the hell of it:

New Zealand+.5/USA FH ML/Lens ML/River Plate ML - +765

 

[BASON]

CL

I do not think I have ever been less excited about a Champions League Final in over 30 years. I am sure much of this has to do with my disdain for betting on the Spurs, but this is definitely not a final I wanted to see. Not much of an analysis needed here for me as I simply think Liverpool is the better team with the better coach. Spurs have not really played well at all at the end of the season absent the "miracle in Amsterdam"!! Also, I see this game exactly the way Kid does, so we are in agreement on our bets (I actually put these in this morning and then saw his plays!):

Liverpool -114
Liverpool TT Ov 1.5 -116
2-1 Exact score +700
Corners Ov 9.5 -140 (not something I usually play but like a Super Bowl prop for me, I also think Liverpool goes over their total)

Nothing huge for me just some solid action on the game. Hopefully we get an entertaining match and not a 1-0 snoozer.

 

[BASON]

Ends up a strong day betting wise, but the game definitely lived up to my low expectations. Spurs were simply horrible as expected. Will save everyone the rant and go out and spend some of today's winnings!


Oh, and by the way, does anyone else find it remarkable that the games largest stage is on TNT with studio analysts that have zero qualifications to be discussing the MLS let alone the CL. Seriously, Steve Nash and Maurice Edu? Give me a break, it is truly embarrassing.

 

[BASON]

Columbia -135 - I like the match up here. Columbia's speed upfront and in the back should be too much for New Zealand. SA teams can be unpredictable, but if Columbia comes to play they should win this like 2-0.

Usually I would be on Italy today at such a low price, but I am laying off only because the tournament is in Poland. I watched two games by each team and I definitely think Italy is the better team, but I will just go with the one game today. Also tempted to take France Ov3.5 against Bolivia in a friendly.

 

[tt boy]

France 2-0 HT

 

[tt boy]

and they burn my -2.5 with scoreless 2nd half :facepalm: