2018-19 Season

[BASON]

Sorry did not get back to you DZ. I have not been around as much as usual. I parlayed Leipzig yesterday with Man City today (this line is nuts so I have to go with it). I lean to the under in the Bayern match today, but not loving it. Bremen will be all in as this is one of the biggest games in the last 20 years so I think they will give Bayern a game.

I am already on Barca big next week in CL. Likely not playing much of anything else until then. Been focused on big game hunting lately and really limiting my soccer plays. Focused more on NCAA tourney than usual this year and now onto hockey playoffs which I love. Need Caps in game 7 tonight or my hockey season will likely be done.

 

[BASON]

Small play

Dusseldorf Ov 3

 

[BASON]

Easy winner today, so I will make a play for tomorrow.

Bayern Un 4 - Everything points to a blow out here. Dortmund loses, so if Bayern wins, the league is basically over. Stuttgart actually won, so Nurnberg is finished and going down once again to break yet another record. So on paper, Bayern should win big, but I just do not think they are going to win 5-0. They will likely win to nil, but Nurnberg has been playing everyone well in the second half of the season and not getting blown out like the first part of the season. Sure, this could easily be 6 or 7 nil, but I think we see some fight from the home team and no more than a 3-0 win by Bayern. By no means a big play, just a gut feeling.

 

[DZ]

what in the hell is Bayern doing? this backup GK is atrocious.

 

[BASON]

I know, but I had a small bet on Nurnberg +1260, so the missed penalty cost me some good money. Missed penalties probably cost Nurnberg from staying in the Bundesliga. Easy under though.

 

[BASON]

CL

Ajax/Spurs BTTS and Ov 2.5 - Ajax is continuing not to get any respect in my opinion. They scored 4 at Real, 2 at Juve and 3 at Bayern. Do you really think they will not score in this game? They are well rested and will attack Spurs like crazy which tends to take teams out of their own game.

Barca - I really like this game. Liverpool lovers are driving this line down. I got it today at -113, which to me, is a steal. Liverpool is still battling the League whereas Barca is just cruising. Liverpool is also not a very good away team in CL, while Barca has not lost at home in 31 CL games only 2 of which were losses. Barca knows they have to win this game. I am betting this rather big.

I also agree with Kid on Montpellier tomorrow. PSG has more or less quit.

If plays hit tomorrow, I will likely add more to Barca.

 

[BASON]

Spurs suck. I really hate that team. No real threat at all and lucky it was not 2 or 3 nil.

Thank goodness PSG quit once again and lost.

Still on Barca big tomorrow!!

 

[BASON]

Final Barca bet made at -110 this morning. The English team's keep screwing me in CL so hopefully today is different, need this one to build the bankroll.

 

[BASON]

I do not really get this Rennes/Monaco line. Sure Monaco needs to win, but they suck. Maybe Rennes is still celebrating the Cup win, but I will take them at home +.5. (I apologize for the late post, I had it written and then got a call and lost track of time. Sorry, I hate doing that.)

I think I have to like Bournemouth at home over the Spurs at +.5 -105 this weekend. I see no way they are truly focused for this game. They are beat up and have a trip to Ajax coming up. They can draw this game and beat Everton in the final week to secure Champions League. Not sure we see their best effort this weekend.

 

[PittsburghKid]

I?ll be on Bournemouth also just haven?t put it in yet


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[BASON]

Huge win for me today as I knew this line was off. Probably ended up as my largest bet of the year so far.

Still debating Euro tomorrow. As most of you know, I have not been a fan or Arsenal this year, and for the most part, they have proven me right. So I am having a tough time betting them straight tomorrow (I have them to finish off a parlay from today's games so no real need to add another bet).

I am also leaning towards Frankfurt in a Pk+ as I am sure everyone will be on Chelsea. I will think about it some more and post in the morning.

 

[Vig]

Huge win for me today as I knew this line was off. Probably ended up as my largest bet of the year so far.

Still debating Euro tomorrow. As most of you know, I have not been a fan or Arsenal this year, and for the most part, they have proven me right. So I am having a tough time betting them straight tomorrow (I have them to finish off a parlay from today's games so no real need to add another bet).

I am also leaning towards Frankfurt in a Pk+ as I am sure everyone will be on Chelsea. I will think about it some more and post in the morning.

Nice hit on Barca! Fwiw, to me the line says Frankfurt for tomorrow

 

[BASON]

Thanks Vig. Needed that one.

I am playing Frankfurt in a Pk+122 at home. Just a small play. If their CL spot in the League were more secure I would have hit this harder after the big win yesterday, but they are only 3 points ahead with 3 to play and have been showing signs of weakening. Plus, 2 of the three games are on the road. The first is a huge game on Sunday at Leverkusen who trails them by 3 points, and then the season finale at Bayern. They are going to have a tough time holding onto the CL spot, but I still think we get a spirited effort today.

I have Arsenal to finish off a parlay and that is enough for me on the game as I really do not trust them at all. They should be focused because they may have to win Euro to get into CL next year, but then again, they should have been focused the last 3 league games!

I am throwing a little on Valencia to advance Pk+115. Hard not to like Spanish teams in Euro, but they are also battling hard in the League for CL and Euro and also may have to win Euro to get into CL. Would not be surprised to see a draw today as this is a tough game to cap given recent performances of both teams.

 

[BASON]

Another decent day, as I was able to get some Frankfurt money in a +5 very close to kick off and Arsenal finished off a parlay. Will try to keep this going with the Turin Derby tomorrow:

Torino+1 - Juve still laying a big number despite their season being over. Sure, they will want to win, but they simply do not have the motivation they once had. Meanwhile, Torino is hot and making a run at Euro and possibly CL. They will come to play and I think a draw is good result for them. Tempted to play the draw but I will take the +1 as I do not think Juve will win by 2 as we have two of the best defenses in the league facing off.

Will tie the above with some overs in the final games of the Dutch 2nd division. Twente finishes at home and were very loose last game and scored 5, I think they will get 3. Also see Young Ajax putting up some and that game going over.

 

[Crookity]

Another decent day, as I was able to get some Frankfurt money in a +5 very close to kick off and Arsenal finished off a parlay. Will try to keep this going with the Turin Derby tomorrow:

Torino+1 - Juve still laying a big number despite their season being over. Sure, they will want to win, but they simply do not have the motivation they once had. Meanwhile, Torino is hot and making a run at Euro and possibly CL. They will come to play and I think a draw is good result for them. Tempted to play the draw but I will take the +1 as I do not think Juve will win by 2 as we have two of the best defenses in the league facing off.

Will tie the above with some overs in the final games of the Dutch 2nd division. Twente finishes at home and were very loose last game and scored 5, I think they will get 3. Also see Young Ajax putting up some and that game going over.

well done Bason!

 

[BASON]

Another great day. Torino covers and both Dutch games go over (go a little luck with 2 very late goals in the Twente game, but that is how it goes when you are going well)

Been a very nice run. Will not have much for tomorrow as I am likely making a couple big plays next week. Going against CL teams is always a good play this weekend. You have to absolutely love the Dutch league for changing the schedule so that Ajax could rest and have no distractions for their CL match. Just an awesome move and another advantage they have.

I am already against Spurs and have Bournemouth +.5 to finish off two more parlays so that is enough for me in England (plus Kid has a lot of Premier League plays). I do think Liverpool will struggle to cover the 1.5 at New Castle.

May have to play Celta Vigo at -113 as that line is completely ridiculous. Total situational line as Celta is still battling to stay out of relegation while Barca has clinched and has a huge game coming up in the CL at Liverpool. My guess is many players will sit and rest in this one as the game is completely meaningless to them and they can not afford to get any of their players hurt. While they won 3-0 in the first match against Liverpool, the score was not really reflective of the overall play as Liverpool dominated much of the game. Barca know they are in for a tough game at Liverpool and could likely care less about this game. Sometimes the backups step up but my guess is with the league decided no one is really focused. All that points to the line, but still a small price to pay for a game that really seems rigged for Celta Vigo.

 

[Crookity]

Another great day. Torino covers and both Dutch games go over (go a little luck with 2 very late goals in the Twente game, but that is how it goes when you are going well)

Been a very nice run. Will not have much for tomorrow as I am likely making a couple big plays next week. Going against CL teams is always a good play this weekend. You have to absolutely love the Dutch league for changing the schedule so that Ajax could rest and have no distractions for their CL match. Just an awesome move and another advantage they have.

I am already against Spurs and have Bournemouth +.5 to finish off two more parlays so that is enough for me in England (plus Kid has a lot of Premier League plays). I do think Liverpool will struggle to cover the 1.5 at New Castle.

May have to play Celta Vigo at -113 as that line is completely ridiculous. Total situational line as Celta is still battling to stay out of relegation while Barca has clinched and has a huge game coming up in the CL at Liverpool. My guess is many players will sit and rest in this one as the game is completely meaningless to them and they can not afford to get any of their players hurt. While they won 3-0 in the first match against Liverpool, the score was not really reflective of the overall play as Liverpool dominated much of the game. Barca know they are in for a tough game at Liverpool and could likely care less about this game. Sometimes the backups step up but my guess is with the league decided no one is really focused. All that points to the line, but still a small price to pay for a game that really seems rigged for Celta Vigo.

Nice early hit with Bournemouth...stay hot !

 

[BASON]

Thanks Crook, on a bit of a roll right now.

Not much else to really like today so I will start handicapping some Churchill Downs races.

I did put in a small parlay on Dortmund/Celta Vigo. Just for fun and not really a recommended play, but I have some money to play with and the Vigo line continues to rise, so I think I have to play it. Dortmund on the road is tough to bet but I just have a feeling they win today.

 

[BASON]

Liverpool CL line now flipped back to plus money. Not sure I will now be making it a big play given Salah's injury. IF he is out, I think it definitely changes the dynamic of the game. Mane is not the same threat if they do not have to focus on Salah and his speed and Firmino is out. I will wait. This is why I will not play these games early if they have a game in between as too much can happen. All three teams playing this week in CL certainly struggled and were great plays against this weekend.

 

[BASON]

CL

Liverpool +/Pk- - Usually this is the type of CL situation that I absolutely love and unload on. 3-0 loss on the road and then come home. Liverpool very strong at home and Barca not so much on the road. This was shaping up to be a very big play for me (almost as much as Barca was last week), but I am backing off a little bit. If the situational play were not so strong, I would probably even lay off. Splitting my action between the ML and GL. I may be overreacting to the Salah injury but this is like Barca playing without Messi. You simply have a different game plan defensively when either are playing and I am not comfortable making a big money play under these circumstances. They also had to play this weekend while Barca more or less took the weekend off. I still think Liverpool is capable of winning especially with the 3-0 cushion Barca has which will affect how they play, especially if they get an away goal. Just need them to get up early and not get very sloppy at the end.

Ajax+ - I really do not need to analyze this game much. Spurs are in a funk, imploded on Saturday and I do not think it is going to get any better in Amsterdam, which will be insane on Wednesday night (certainly a game I wish I could attend, and in my youth I would be flying over as I love Amsterdam). Spurs will have trouble scoring, and when they press in the second half, Ajax will counter. They did not get wins in prior CL home matches, but they were on the front end, not the back end. I do not think Spurs have the fire power to win and I see Ajax taking advantage of them for the big win and a massive party in Amsterdam!!!