Anders' World Cup Game-by-Game Plays
- Thread starter Anders
- Start date
Thanks Chucky
No luck y'day as as Chilavert blunder and a dodgy pen killed us ..
Sorry no write-ups with these; my daughter is still sick so priorities are elsewhere. Nothing too serious but that's where attentions have to go...
Here's today's plays..
Brazil -2.5 -110/$1.91
Croatia +1 +113/$2.13
Italy/Croatia u2.5 -120
Ita/Cro no goal in 1st 37m -110
Slovenia +140/$2.40
GL all...
Anders
No luck y'day as as Chilavert blunder and a dodgy pen killed us ..
Sorry no write-ups with these; my daughter is still sick so priorities are elsewhere. Nothing too serious but that's where attentions have to go...
Here's today's plays..
Brazil -2.5 -110/$1.91
Croatia +1 +113/$2.13
Italy/Croatia u2.5 -120
Ita/Cro no goal in 1st 37m -110
Slovenia +140/$2.40
GL all...
Anders
GL, Anders.
Re Paraguay, looks like their skill level is good enuf to be competitive for 60 minutes. They've faded badly at the end of the 1st 2 gms. Conditioning problem?
And Chilavert, damn. I love following those soccernet.com Live commentaries. They called him the "court jester," and that somehow seemed appropriate. That fat bastard missed the corner ball by a mile. And to watch him chug back after that free kick was very funny.
One thing that seems to hold true in any sport is that when one's ego gets too big, inevitably it always comes back to bite him sooner or later. What was he thinking talking all that smack before the game? If he's gonna shoot his mouth like that, he better bring more game than what he showed.
See ya, Anders. Enjoy the gms.
Re Paraguay, looks like their skill level is good enuf to be competitive for 60 minutes. They've faded badly at the end of the 1st 2 gms. Conditioning problem?
And Chilavert, damn. I love following those soccernet.com Live commentaries. They called him the "court jester," and that somehow seemed appropriate. That fat bastard missed the corner ball by a mile. And to watch him chug back after that free kick was very funny.
One thing that seems to hold true in any sport is that when one's ego gets too big, inevitably it always comes back to bite him sooner or later. What was he thinking talking all that smack before the game? If he's gonna shoot his mouth like that, he better bring more game than what he showed.
See ya, Anders. Enjoy the gms.
Nice work Anders!
Hope your back isn't sore, rode that 4-1 effort of yours, right to the bank!:director: :toast:
Hope your back isn't sore, rode that 4-1 effort of yours, right to the bank!:director: :toast:
KC - pleased to see u r sticking with me
Only went 3-2 y'day - although if u had jumped on an early pre-tournament hedge play on Croatia on the win and draw it made it a fine night.
Tournament to Date:
Overall) 21-24 +4.76 units
Sides) 11-16 +2.56 units
Totals) 6-3 +3.50 units
Props) 4-5 -1.30 units
Today:
Turkey v Costa Rica: The perfect opportunity for Turkey to bounce back from the heartbreak of the late loss to Brazil. While a draw would have been a bonus to the Turks, they know wins v Costa Rica and China should get them into the 2nd rd , although it could come down to goal difference.
Turkey will of course be without defender Alpay and midfielder Unsal after they were sent off in game one, but this should be covered by Emre Asik at the back and Ergun Penbe on the left. Expect Hakan Sukur, marked out of the game v Brazil, to be far more prominent here against the less-athletic Costa Ricans with the likes of Basturk and Sas pushing forward in support.
Costa Rica struggled to break down a poor Chinese side until two pieces of individual brilliance from Ronald Gomez split the game open.
However, it looked as if their key striker Paulo Wanchope is still not yet over the knee injury that hindered his English season and that further hinders the hopes of the underdogs. Turkey should have a little more class and big-match nous in a must-win match.
PLAY TURKEY $1.75
Mexico v Ecuador: In 10 previous meetings since 1970, Ecuador have only once beaten Mexico and that was at home at Quito in 1996 in a friendly. Mexico have won 5 and drawn 3 of the other encounters, including a 2-0 home win ina friendly in 2000 when they last met. Big difference here in world rankings - Mexico 7, Ecuador 35.
Mexico will be massively boosted by Croatia's win over Italy yesterday which has thrown the group wide open - they know another win today will give them a big foot in the door for the 2nd rd ahead of their final group match v Italy.
Under new coach Javier Aguirre, Mexico have grown another leg since struggling initially in the Conmebol playoffs when it appeared they may miss out altogether on World Cup 2002. They totally dominated possession in the 1-0 win over Croatia, although Aguirre was a little unhappy with their defending at set-plays.
Ecuador are unlikely to threaten at the dead-ball as much as the Croatians. They could also miss veteran midfielder and playmaker Alex Aguinaga, who strained his thigh in the 2-0 loss to Italy.
More changes are likely but coach Hernan Dario Gomez may struggle to adjust his players to the demands of pushing forward after their defensive effort v Italy.
Again, dislike playing two favourites in one day but you can still get a nice price on Mexico. Given their advantage in class and experience - most of Ecuador's players are home-based while Mexico seldom fail to make the 2nd rd when they get to the Cup - I would have priced them at $1.80. So....
PLAY MEXICO $2.25/+125
Japan v Russia: Tough one to predict. Japan showed signs of real class v Belgium in their 2-2 draw and signs of true international inexperience and weaknesses at the back. Russia were neat and tidy but a little flat in doing enough to dispatch Tunisia 2-0.
Best play here I believe is on the total at evens. While the co-hosts lack a world class striker they have three influential midfielders capable of creating plenty of chances in Ono, Nakata and Inamoto.
Japan's defensive woes could be furthered by the toe injury suffered by classy skipper Morioka in the game v Belgium which saw him stretchered off.
Russia may start 18-y-o Sychev in place of Beschastnykh after Sychev was involved in both goals as a second-half sub in Kobe. The Russians strength is also in their creative midfielders Valery Kapin and Yegor Titov, while playmaker Mostovoi was a possibility to start after a hamstring injury ruled him out of the opener.
The home crowd will urge Japan forward at every opportunity, leaving them vulnerable to the counter-attack while they are always liable to concede set piece goals. I hope they win, given the "futures prop" on them to win the group and be the top finishing Asian side.
But the best match bet is on the over.
PLAY OVER 2.5 $2/+100
GL all...
Only went 3-2 y'day - although if u had jumped on an early pre-tournament hedge play on Croatia on the win and draw it made it a fine night.
Tournament to Date:
Overall) 21-24 +4.76 units
Sides) 11-16 +2.56 units
Totals) 6-3 +3.50 units
Props) 4-5 -1.30 units
Today:
Turkey v Costa Rica: The perfect opportunity for Turkey to bounce back from the heartbreak of the late loss to Brazil. While a draw would have been a bonus to the Turks, they know wins v Costa Rica and China should get them into the 2nd rd , although it could come down to goal difference.
Turkey will of course be without defender Alpay and midfielder Unsal after they were sent off in game one, but this should be covered by Emre Asik at the back and Ergun Penbe on the left. Expect Hakan Sukur, marked out of the game v Brazil, to be far more prominent here against the less-athletic Costa Ricans with the likes of Basturk and Sas pushing forward in support.
Costa Rica struggled to break down a poor Chinese side until two pieces of individual brilliance from Ronald Gomez split the game open.
However, it looked as if their key striker Paulo Wanchope is still not yet over the knee injury that hindered his English season and that further hinders the hopes of the underdogs. Turkey should have a little more class and big-match nous in a must-win match.
PLAY TURKEY $1.75
Mexico v Ecuador: In 10 previous meetings since 1970, Ecuador have only once beaten Mexico and that was at home at Quito in 1996 in a friendly. Mexico have won 5 and drawn 3 of the other encounters, including a 2-0 home win ina friendly in 2000 when they last met. Big difference here in world rankings - Mexico 7, Ecuador 35.
Mexico will be massively boosted by Croatia's win over Italy yesterday which has thrown the group wide open - they know another win today will give them a big foot in the door for the 2nd rd ahead of their final group match v Italy.
Under new coach Javier Aguirre, Mexico have grown another leg since struggling initially in the Conmebol playoffs when it appeared they may miss out altogether on World Cup 2002. They totally dominated possession in the 1-0 win over Croatia, although Aguirre was a little unhappy with their defending at set-plays.
Ecuador are unlikely to threaten at the dead-ball as much as the Croatians. They could also miss veteran midfielder and playmaker Alex Aguinaga, who strained his thigh in the 2-0 loss to Italy.
More changes are likely but coach Hernan Dario Gomez may struggle to adjust his players to the demands of pushing forward after their defensive effort v Italy.
Again, dislike playing two favourites in one day but you can still get a nice price on Mexico. Given their advantage in class and experience - most of Ecuador's players are home-based while Mexico seldom fail to make the 2nd rd when they get to the Cup - I would have priced them at $1.80. So....
PLAY MEXICO $2.25/+125
Japan v Russia: Tough one to predict. Japan showed signs of real class v Belgium in their 2-2 draw and signs of true international inexperience and weaknesses at the back. Russia were neat and tidy but a little flat in doing enough to dispatch Tunisia 2-0.
Best play here I believe is on the total at evens. While the co-hosts lack a world class striker they have three influential midfielders capable of creating plenty of chances in Ono, Nakata and Inamoto.
Japan's defensive woes could be furthered by the toe injury suffered by classy skipper Morioka in the game v Belgium which saw him stretchered off.
Russia may start 18-y-o Sychev in place of Beschastnykh after Sychev was involved in both goals as a second-half sub in Kobe. The Russians strength is also in their creative midfielders Valery Kapin and Yegor Titov, while playmaker Mostovoi was a possibility to start after a hamstring injury ruled him out of the opener.
The home crowd will urge Japan forward at every opportunity, leaving them vulnerable to the counter-attack while they are always liable to concede set piece goals. I hope they win, given the "futures prop" on them to win the group and be the top finishing Asian side.
But the best match bet is on the over.
PLAY OVER 2.5 $2/+100
GL all...
Nice writeup, Anders. I'm also playing Turkey and Mexico (along with Japan 2-way). Will take a look at the over in Japan/Russia... your analysis makes sense.
Good luck tonight.
Good luck tonight.
As usually happens with sports betting, your entire day comes down to one incident.
Yesterday it didn't go our way as Costa Rica snatched a late equaliser against Turkey and we finished 1-2 for the day. Turkey had the upper hand and looked likely to hold on while I thought there was an offside call missed in the equaliser when the nod-down off the free-kick was pulled back across goal. May just be the bettor in me though.
Mexico proved good value at $2.25 while the Japan/Russia game never turned into an attacking encounter although both teams did miss great chances to get the over to no avail. The Japanese win however eased the pain of a losing day as they are now definite contenders to cash our ticket on winning the group and a good chance also to collect as top Asian side - both early "futures" bets.
I'll update how we stand on all the early wagers such as group winners, total goals, red cards etc when all teams have played 2 group matches after tonight's games.
Back later today with updated standings and plays and previews for the three games
Yesterday it didn't go our way as Costa Rica snatched a late equaliser against Turkey and we finished 1-2 for the day. Turkey had the upper hand and looked likely to hold on while I thought there was an offside call missed in the equaliser when the nod-down off the free-kick was pulled back across goal. May just be the bettor in me though.
Mexico proved good value at $2.25 while the Japan/Russia game never turned into an attacking encounter although both teams did miss great chances to get the over to no avail. The Japanese win however eased the pain of a losing day as they are now definite contenders to cash our ticket on winning the group and a good chance also to collect as top Asian side - both early "futures" bets.
I'll update how we stand on all the early wagers such as group winners, total goals, red cards etc when all teams have played 2 group matches after tonight's games.
Back later today with updated standings and plays and previews for the three games
Tournament to date: 22-26 +3.03 units
Sides: 8-13 +0.53 units
Totals: 6-3 +3.70 units
Props: 2-3 -1.20 units
Belgium v Tunisia) Not one of the tournament's marquee matchups for sure.
Tunisia are already involved in "the dance of the desperates" after the 2-0 loss to Russia while Belgium need a win to keep pace with Japan.
In team news, Belgium's Nico van Kerckhoven has been ruled out of the group H match through injury. Van Kerckhoven, the first-choice left-back, missed Belgium's opening game 2-2 draw with Japan because of an an abductor muscle strain which continues to plague him.
His replacement against Tunisia is expected to be Peter Van der Heyden, who deputised in Saitama last Tuesday and scored but was also exposed defensively.
Central defender Glen de Boeck, who missed the Japan game with a heel problem, has recovered and should reclaim his starting place.
It'll be interesting to see what attacking options coach Robert Waseige takes.
He left out the threats off pacy winger Mbo Mpenza and prolific striker Wesley Sonck against Japan, preferring to push Marc Wilmots forward from midfield in a makeshift attack.
Mpenza may gain favour to test the Tunisian back four out wide but it seems Sonck will again start from the bench.
Tunisia didn't often threaten Russia but at the same time weren't over-run at all and it took a weird goalkeeping distribution error to help the winners score the crucial opener.
But the African side failed to score at the Nations Cup and seems to have little potency to their game _ in France four years ago, the Tunisians scored just once in three matches.
PLAY UNDER 2.5 -120
South Korea v US) Now this has the potential to be a real rip-snorter. PLenty of feeling between the 2 countries _ the reverence the Korean War bestowed on their view of the US has faded with the younger, highly politicised generation of Sth Koreans.
And who could forget the Apolo Anton Ono skating controversy thrown into the mix?
Suffice to say the atmosphere will be as hot as the temp in Taegu, where the mercury has got up to 35 celsius during the past week.
Both teams have wide players with ample pace so we could see a rapid counter-attacking game. The US will be delighted to bring back playmaker and skipper Claudio Reyna into the midfield from injury while Sth Korean coach Gus Hiddink is keen to see his striker Choi Yong-soo back after a hip injury in a warm-up match against France.
Choi would help ease the concern over the two injured scorers from South Korea's first game, veteran striker Hwang Sun-hong and midfielder Yoo Sang-chul.
Earnie Stewart may be confined to the bench following his injury in the shock win over Portugal. That could see fellow veteran flank Cobi Jones start or the first appearance at the tournament for striker Clint Mathis.
Probable teams:
South Korea (3-4-3): 1-Lee Woon-jae; 4-Choi Jin-cheul,
20-Hong Myung-bo, 7-Kim Tae-young; 22-Song Chong-gug, 5-Kim
Nam-il, 14-Lee Chun-soo, 13-Lee Eul-yong; 21-Park Ji-sung;
11-Choi Yong-soo, 9-Seol Ki-hyeon
United States (5-4-1): 1-Brad Friedel; 2-Frankie Hejduk,
4-Pablo Mastroeni, 12-Jeff Agoos, 22-Tony Sanneh, 23-Eddie Pope;
5-John O'Brien, 11-Clint Mathis, 17-DaMarcus Beasley, 21-Landon
Donovan; 20-Brian McBride
Match referee: Urs Meier (Switzerland)
Hard to pick a winner. I think Sth Korea may be a little sharper defensively but the US have a fine keeper and maybe offer more up front.
With both teams winning their opener, neither side would be that down-hearted with a draw to stay in qualifying contention _ particularly the US as Sth Korea still have to face Portugal.
PLAY DRAW +225/$3.25
Portugal v Poland) Have got real value from an early wager on this one.
Played Portugal at the slightly baffling odds of -110/$1.91 pre-tournament so the loss to the US has now made this an even better bet in terms of price.
Of course, there's the slight worry that Portugal may again make as many defensive errors as they did in game one.
But hopefully the loss has sharpened their focus.
Expect coach Antonio Oliveira to tighten his leaky defence and also play use the likes of Paulo Bento and Armando Petit as defensive midfielders.
Engel is likely to make a few changes to the side who surrendered meekly to the Koreans.
Versatile defender Jacek Bak picked up a back injury in that match and, although he has almost fully recovered, might be replaced by Tomasz Klos at right back.
Marek Kozminski and Jacek Krzynowek are likely to keep their wide midfield berths but could switch places, with Kozminski starting on the left.
Up front, Engel still has to choose between Pawel Kryszalowicz and Maciej Zurawski, who played 45 minutes apiece in the opening match.
Probable teams:
Portugal: 1-Vitor Baia; 18-Nuno Frechaut, 2-Jorge Costa, 5-Fernando Couto, 23-Rui Jorge; 20-Armando Petit, 17-Paulo Bento; 11-Sergio Conceicao, 10-Rui Costa, 7-Luis Figo; 9-Pauleta.
Poland: 1-Jerzy Dudek; 20-Jacek Bak, 15-Tomasz Waldoch, 6-Tomasz Hajto, 4-Michal Zewlakow; 21-Marek Kozminski, 7-Piotr Swierczewski, 10-Radoslaw Kaluzny, 18-Jacek Krzynowek; 11-Emmanuel Olisadebe, 9-Pawel Kryszalowicz.
Referee: Hugh Dallas (Scotland)
It's hard to see the Portugese falling twice; especially to a Polish side the US will fancy their chances against in the final group matches.
Unfortunately the price isn't as good with the best left available I could see was $1.62/-163 or Portugal -1 at -111/$1.90.
PLAYED PORTUGAL ML $1.91/-110
GL team
Sides: 8-13 +0.53 units
Totals: 6-3 +3.70 units
Props: 2-3 -1.20 units
Belgium v Tunisia) Not one of the tournament's marquee matchups for sure.
Tunisia are already involved in "the dance of the desperates" after the 2-0 loss to Russia while Belgium need a win to keep pace with Japan.
In team news, Belgium's Nico van Kerckhoven has been ruled out of the group H match through injury. Van Kerckhoven, the first-choice left-back, missed Belgium's opening game 2-2 draw with Japan because of an an abductor muscle strain which continues to plague him.
His replacement against Tunisia is expected to be Peter Van der Heyden, who deputised in Saitama last Tuesday and scored but was also exposed defensively.
Central defender Glen de Boeck, who missed the Japan game with a heel problem, has recovered and should reclaim his starting place.
It'll be interesting to see what attacking options coach Robert Waseige takes.
He left out the threats off pacy winger Mbo Mpenza and prolific striker Wesley Sonck against Japan, preferring to push Marc Wilmots forward from midfield in a makeshift attack.
Mpenza may gain favour to test the Tunisian back four out wide but it seems Sonck will again start from the bench.
Tunisia didn't often threaten Russia but at the same time weren't over-run at all and it took a weird goalkeeping distribution error to help the winners score the crucial opener.
But the African side failed to score at the Nations Cup and seems to have little potency to their game _ in France four years ago, the Tunisians scored just once in three matches.
PLAY UNDER 2.5 -120
South Korea v US) Now this has the potential to be a real rip-snorter. PLenty of feeling between the 2 countries _ the reverence the Korean War bestowed on their view of the US has faded with the younger, highly politicised generation of Sth Koreans.
And who could forget the Apolo Anton Ono skating controversy thrown into the mix?
Suffice to say the atmosphere will be as hot as the temp in Taegu, where the mercury has got up to 35 celsius during the past week.
Both teams have wide players with ample pace so we could see a rapid counter-attacking game. The US will be delighted to bring back playmaker and skipper Claudio Reyna into the midfield from injury while Sth Korean coach Gus Hiddink is keen to see his striker Choi Yong-soo back after a hip injury in a warm-up match against France.
Choi would help ease the concern over the two injured scorers from South Korea's first game, veteran striker Hwang Sun-hong and midfielder Yoo Sang-chul.
Earnie Stewart may be confined to the bench following his injury in the shock win over Portugal. That could see fellow veteran flank Cobi Jones start or the first appearance at the tournament for striker Clint Mathis.
Probable teams:
South Korea (3-4-3): 1-Lee Woon-jae; 4-Choi Jin-cheul,
20-Hong Myung-bo, 7-Kim Tae-young; 22-Song Chong-gug, 5-Kim
Nam-il, 14-Lee Chun-soo, 13-Lee Eul-yong; 21-Park Ji-sung;
11-Choi Yong-soo, 9-Seol Ki-hyeon
United States (5-4-1): 1-Brad Friedel; 2-Frankie Hejduk,
4-Pablo Mastroeni, 12-Jeff Agoos, 22-Tony Sanneh, 23-Eddie Pope;
5-John O'Brien, 11-Clint Mathis, 17-DaMarcus Beasley, 21-Landon
Donovan; 20-Brian McBride
Match referee: Urs Meier (Switzerland)
Hard to pick a winner. I think Sth Korea may be a little sharper defensively but the US have a fine keeper and maybe offer more up front.
With both teams winning their opener, neither side would be that down-hearted with a draw to stay in qualifying contention _ particularly the US as Sth Korea still have to face Portugal.
PLAY DRAW +225/$3.25
Portugal v Poland) Have got real value from an early wager on this one.
Played Portugal at the slightly baffling odds of -110/$1.91 pre-tournament so the loss to the US has now made this an even better bet in terms of price.
Of course, there's the slight worry that Portugal may again make as many defensive errors as they did in game one.
But hopefully the loss has sharpened their focus.
Expect coach Antonio Oliveira to tighten his leaky defence and also play use the likes of Paulo Bento and Armando Petit as defensive midfielders.
Engel is likely to make a few changes to the side who surrendered meekly to the Koreans.
Versatile defender Jacek Bak picked up a back injury in that match and, although he has almost fully recovered, might be replaced by Tomasz Klos at right back.
Marek Kozminski and Jacek Krzynowek are likely to keep their wide midfield berths but could switch places, with Kozminski starting on the left.
Up front, Engel still has to choose between Pawel Kryszalowicz and Maciej Zurawski, who played 45 minutes apiece in the opening match.
Probable teams:
Portugal: 1-Vitor Baia; 18-Nuno Frechaut, 2-Jorge Costa, 5-Fernando Couto, 23-Rui Jorge; 20-Armando Petit, 17-Paulo Bento; 11-Sergio Conceicao, 10-Rui Costa, 7-Luis Figo; 9-Pauleta.
Poland: 1-Jerzy Dudek; 20-Jacek Bak, 15-Tomasz Waldoch, 6-Tomasz Hajto, 4-Michal Zewlakow; 21-Marek Kozminski, 7-Piotr Swierczewski, 10-Radoslaw Kaluzny, 18-Jacek Krzynowek; 11-Emmanuel Olisadebe, 9-Pawel Kryszalowicz.
Referee: Hugh Dallas (Scotland)
It's hard to see the Portugese falling twice; especially to a Polish side the US will fancy their chances against in the final group matches.
Unfortunately the price isn't as good with the best left available I could see was $1.62/-163 or Portugal -1 at -111/$1.90.
PLAYED PORTUGAL ML $1.91/-110
GL team
Well done. Tailed on US/Korea draw and Belgium under.
I actually was worried about US winning... my sister (an American) lives in Korea... can just imagine the rioting if they'd lost.
I actually was worried about US winning... my sister (an American) lives in Korea... can just imagine the rioting if they'd lost.
Nice pickin, champ.
You were right on the $. US-Korea was a fabulous game. USA really played a smart game. Mathis and Freidel came up big when they had to.
You were right on the $. US-Korea was a fabulous game. USA really played a smart game. Mathis and Freidel came up big when they had to.
Thanks heaps guys
Here's today's daily grind ...
France v Denmark) Do-or-die for the defending champs. Haven't scored in the tournament and now need to win by two to sneak thru into rd two. Won't be made any easier by the absence of the suspended Thierry Henry, with veteran Dugarry pushed up front alongside Trezeguet. Petit is suspended too but they won't miss yesterday's man with Makalele coming in.
Of course, the key is the return of Zinedine Zidane. How fit he is we can only guess but even on one leg he's capable of stunning things.
Expect the Danes to sit back knowing France's desperation and hit on the counter thru the pace of Gronkjaer and Rommedahl. Denamrk controlled the opening 40 mins v Senega and should have been 2-0 up. But when Gronkjaer got injured and Senegal pushed forward they went into their shell.
Don't write off France just yet. They looked sharp in the early stages against Uruguay until things went pear-shaped when Henry was dismissed. Even with 10 men they were the better team but vulnerable on the break.
Probable teams:
France (4-2-3-1): 16-Fabien Barthez; 15-Lilian Thuram, 5-Philippe Christanval, 8-Marcel Desailly, 3-Bixente Lizarazu; 4-Patrick Vieira, 7-Claude Makelele; 11-Sylvain Wiltord, 10-Zinedine Zidane, 21-Christophe Dugarry; 20-David Trezeguet.
Denmark (4-4-2): 1-Thomas Sorensen; 6-Thomas Helveg, 3-Rene Henriksen, 4-Martin Laursen, 5-Jan Heintze; 19-Dennis Rommedahl, 7-Thomas Gravesen, 2-Stig Tofting, 8-Jesper Gronkjaer; 11-Ebbe Sand, 9-Jon Dahl Tomasson.
Referee: Vitor Melo Pereira (Portugal)
Linesmen: Carlos Matos (Portugal)
Elise Doriri (Vanuatu)
With a half-unit on Denmark to win the group I guess I'll be cheering them on. But this promises to be a thriller as the tournament really heats up.
Some of these "knockout" matches now won't be won by the side that deserves too so I am going to tread carefully.
Will stick with an early props play as my only wager on this game.
PLAY GOAL IN FIRST 36 MINS -110/$1.91
Senegal v Uruguay) Hope I'm not the only one who's surprised to see Uruguay installed as the chalk here.
While they may be the team that needs three points more, that seldom is a guide to where your wagering money should go.
Uruguay, the last team to qualify for the Cup, were outplayed and beaten by Denmark and outplayed by 10-man France. They get moments of individual brilliance but seem to have little team cohesion.
Their goalscoring woes continue too _ they found the net horrendously hard to come by in qualifying and have scored once in 180 minutes at this event.
Easy to get carried away with Senegal's success and it should be tempered by the fact they were generally out-played in both the win over France and the draw v Denmark. But they have a good GK, an athletic defence that sees Daf and Diatta shine while they're hopeful skipper Cisse will be back from injury after missing game two.
Midfielder Salif Diao, the goalscorer against Denmark, is suspended but Fadiga and El Hadji Diouf can still gave Uruguay headaches going forward.
Probable teams:
Senegal: (5-4-1) 1-Tony Sylva; 2-Omar Daf, 13-Lamine Diatta, 3-Pape Sarr, 4-Pape Malick Diop, 17-Ferdinand Coly; 10-Khalilou Fadiga, 21-Habib Beye, 19-Pape Bouba Diop, 14-Moussa Ndiaye; 11-El Hadji Diouf.
Uruguay (4-3-1-2): 1-Fabian Carini; 2-Gustavo Mendez, 3-Alejandro Lembo, 4-Paolo Montero (captain), 6-Dario Rodriguez; 8-Gustavo Varela, 5-Pablo Garcia, 7-Gianni Guigou; 20-Alvaro Recoba; 9-Dario Silva, 13-Sebastian Abreu.
I'll back the momentum to continue with the Lions at a nice price for a win/draw hedge on the dogs.
PLAY SENEGAL +210/$3.10
PLAY DRAW +215/$3.15
Next write-ups may be an hr or so; so for those in the US putting on their jammies here's what else i'm playing...
PLAY CAMEROON +.5 -117/$1.85
PLAY GOAL FIRST 37 MINS -110/$1.91
Back in a while; GL all
Here's today's daily grind ...
France v Denmark) Do-or-die for the defending champs. Haven't scored in the tournament and now need to win by two to sneak thru into rd two. Won't be made any easier by the absence of the suspended Thierry Henry, with veteran Dugarry pushed up front alongside Trezeguet. Petit is suspended too but they won't miss yesterday's man with Makalele coming in.
Of course, the key is the return of Zinedine Zidane. How fit he is we can only guess but even on one leg he's capable of stunning things.
Expect the Danes to sit back knowing France's desperation and hit on the counter thru the pace of Gronkjaer and Rommedahl. Denamrk controlled the opening 40 mins v Senega and should have been 2-0 up. But when Gronkjaer got injured and Senegal pushed forward they went into their shell.
Don't write off France just yet. They looked sharp in the early stages against Uruguay until things went pear-shaped when Henry was dismissed. Even with 10 men they were the better team but vulnerable on the break.
Probable teams:
France (4-2-3-1): 16-Fabien Barthez; 15-Lilian Thuram, 5-Philippe Christanval, 8-Marcel Desailly, 3-Bixente Lizarazu; 4-Patrick Vieira, 7-Claude Makelele; 11-Sylvain Wiltord, 10-Zinedine Zidane, 21-Christophe Dugarry; 20-David Trezeguet.
Denmark (4-4-2): 1-Thomas Sorensen; 6-Thomas Helveg, 3-Rene Henriksen, 4-Martin Laursen, 5-Jan Heintze; 19-Dennis Rommedahl, 7-Thomas Gravesen, 2-Stig Tofting, 8-Jesper Gronkjaer; 11-Ebbe Sand, 9-Jon Dahl Tomasson.
Referee: Vitor Melo Pereira (Portugal)
Linesmen: Carlos Matos (Portugal)
Elise Doriri (Vanuatu)
With a half-unit on Denmark to win the group I guess I'll be cheering them on. But this promises to be a thriller as the tournament really heats up.
Some of these "knockout" matches now won't be won by the side that deserves too so I am going to tread carefully.
Will stick with an early props play as my only wager on this game.
PLAY GOAL IN FIRST 36 MINS -110/$1.91
Senegal v Uruguay) Hope I'm not the only one who's surprised to see Uruguay installed as the chalk here.
While they may be the team that needs three points more, that seldom is a guide to where your wagering money should go.
Uruguay, the last team to qualify for the Cup, were outplayed and beaten by Denmark and outplayed by 10-man France. They get moments of individual brilliance but seem to have little team cohesion.
Their goalscoring woes continue too _ they found the net horrendously hard to come by in qualifying and have scored once in 180 minutes at this event.
Easy to get carried away with Senegal's success and it should be tempered by the fact they were generally out-played in both the win over France and the draw v Denmark. But they have a good GK, an athletic defence that sees Daf and Diatta shine while they're hopeful skipper Cisse will be back from injury after missing game two.
Midfielder Salif Diao, the goalscorer against Denmark, is suspended but Fadiga and El Hadji Diouf can still gave Uruguay headaches going forward.
Probable teams:
Senegal: (5-4-1) 1-Tony Sylva; 2-Omar Daf, 13-Lamine Diatta, 3-Pape Sarr, 4-Pape Malick Diop, 17-Ferdinand Coly; 10-Khalilou Fadiga, 21-Habib Beye, 19-Pape Bouba Diop, 14-Moussa Ndiaye; 11-El Hadji Diouf.
Uruguay (4-3-1-2): 1-Fabian Carini; 2-Gustavo Mendez, 3-Alejandro Lembo, 4-Paolo Montero (captain), 6-Dario Rodriguez; 8-Gustavo Varela, 5-Pablo Garcia, 7-Gianni Guigou; 20-Alvaro Recoba; 9-Dario Silva, 13-Sebastian Abreu.
I'll back the momentum to continue with the Lions at a nice price for a win/draw hedge on the dogs.
PLAY SENEGAL +210/$3.10
PLAY DRAW +215/$3.15
Next write-ups may be an hr or so; so for those in the US putting on their jammies
here's what else i'm playing...PLAY CAMEROON +.5 -117/$1.85
PLAY GOAL FIRST 37 MINS -110/$1.91
Back in a while; GL all
Last edited:
Germany v Cameroon) The Germans against a German coach for a place in the 2nd rd.
Both teams seem certain to approach this match with the understanding that Ireland will beat the Saudis by 2 goals or more and end up with 5 points.
The Germans would be happy enough with a draw knowing they would qualify on goal difference after their 8-0 thumping of Saudi Arabia but Winfried Schaefer's Lions will require all 3 pts if the Irish whip the Saudis.
Tournament topscorer Miroslav Klose should be fit for the Germans after a scare but Rudi Voeller may yet bring in Marco Bode and Marko Rehmer for Christian Ziege and Christoph Metzelder.
I was suprised by the way the Germans sat back after going 1-up early v Ireland. They let Ireland dictate the game and challenged them to break them down and beat Oliver Kahn, which Robbie Keane did with seconds to spare.
If they let Cameroon dictate the pace of this match with an eye on the draw it could cause similar problems.
Cameroon haven't been that impressive but could claim mitigating circumstances in the 1-1 draw with Ireland and 1-0 win over Saudi. Their build-up to the opening game was awful in terms of organisation, flights, accomodation and training and they definitely went into game two thinking "How much will we win by?" before realising first they needed to win.
Shouldn't be any lack of focus here. M'boma and Eto'o have the pace and muscle to harry the German defence with wingback/midfielder Geremi their other chief threat.
Happy to get a goal start.
As with the France/Denmark match, I believe the chance of an early-ish goal increases when you have one side intent on pushing forward and the other happier to sit back and counter, rather than the 'feeling out' period you can get in "equal footing" games. So ...
PLAY CAMEROON +.5 -117/$1.85
PLAY GOAL IN FRIST 37 MINS -110/$1.91
Rep of Ireland v Saudi Arabia: Don't like this game from a betting point of view.
Try not to subscribe to the "one team sees it as must-win; other has no motivation" school of handicapping. How many teams have you seen that theory fall on its fat arse?
Saudi showed against Cameroon it could play with pride and organisation. They even looked dangerous up front with the raking long diagonal pass but will miss both Sami Al-Jaber with appendicitis and a knee injury and Al-Dossary with a knee injury.
The Irish will go goal-hunting but it's yet to be seen if Niall Quinn is fit to start up front and if coach Mick McCarthy will use him there to test the suspect Saudi aerial defence. If he does, Keane will work off him with Damien Duff drifting wide to get past the fullbacks. Jason McAteer may come back into the team while there are doubts over the fitness of left-sided midfielder Kevin Kilbane.
I really hope Ireland do succeed here. But goalscoring has never been their forte and doing what everyone expects you to do in sport is a big ask.
Will pass and cheer.
NO PLAY
GL all
Both teams seem certain to approach this match with the understanding that Ireland will beat the Saudis by 2 goals or more and end up with 5 points.
The Germans would be happy enough with a draw knowing they would qualify on goal difference after their 8-0 thumping of Saudi Arabia but Winfried Schaefer's Lions will require all 3 pts if the Irish whip the Saudis.
Tournament topscorer Miroslav Klose should be fit for the Germans after a scare but Rudi Voeller may yet bring in Marco Bode and Marko Rehmer for Christian Ziege and Christoph Metzelder.
I was suprised by the way the Germans sat back after going 1-up early v Ireland. They let Ireland dictate the game and challenged them to break them down and beat Oliver Kahn, which Robbie Keane did with seconds to spare.
If they let Cameroon dictate the pace of this match with an eye on the draw it could cause similar problems.
Cameroon haven't been that impressive but could claim mitigating circumstances in the 1-1 draw with Ireland and 1-0 win over Saudi. Their build-up to the opening game was awful in terms of organisation, flights, accomodation and training and they definitely went into game two thinking "How much will we win by?" before realising first they needed to win.
Shouldn't be any lack of focus here. M'boma and Eto'o have the pace and muscle to harry the German defence with wingback/midfielder Geremi their other chief threat.
Happy to get a goal start.
As with the France/Denmark match, I believe the chance of an early-ish goal increases when you have one side intent on pushing forward and the other happier to sit back and counter, rather than the 'feeling out' period you can get in "equal footing" games. So ...
PLAY CAMEROON +.5 -117/$1.85
PLAY GOAL IN FRIST 37 MINS -110/$1.91
Rep of Ireland v Saudi Arabia: Don't like this game from a betting point of view.
Try not to subscribe to the "one team sees it as must-win; other has no motivation" school of handicapping. How many teams have you seen that theory fall on its fat arse?
Saudi showed against Cameroon it could play with pride and organisation. They even looked dangerous up front with the raking long diagonal pass but will miss both Sami Al-Jaber with appendicitis and a knee injury and Al-Dossary with a knee injury.
The Irish will go goal-hunting but it's yet to be seen if Niall Quinn is fit to start up front and if coach Mick McCarthy will use him there to test the suspect Saudi aerial defence. If he does, Keane will work off him with Damien Duff drifting wide to get past the fullbacks. Jason McAteer may come back into the team while there are doubts over the fitness of left-sided midfielder Kevin Kilbane.
I really hope Ireland do succeed here. But goalscoring has never been their forte and doing what everyone expects you to do in sport is a big ask.
Will pass and cheer.
NO PLAY
GL all
Tournament to date: 26-27 +7.78 units
Sides: 14-17 +3.78 units
Totals: 7-4 +4.70 units
Props: 5-6 -0.70 units
An update for you all on how the pre-tournament prop plays are looking at this stage.
Have added the 3 completed plays to the 'Tournament to Date' stats.
The majority of the rest show plenty of promise and may bolster the profits - fingers crossed.
Golden Boot:
Henry 10-1
Hit the woodwork in game one, sent off in game 2 so no game 3 tonite. Needs 2 hat-tricks if France qualify.
Vieri 12-1
Great start, 3 goals in 2 games, has to make sure Italy don't flop v Mexico.
Owen 20-1
Got close v the Argies but yet to open account. Could still make a mark.
Larsson 51-1 (half-unit)
Giving me some value with both goals v Nigeria; hoping for an upset winner v Argentina too.
To Win Group B:
Slovenia 11-1
Lost
A little unlucky in the opener v Spain then the camp fell apart in a split between coach and star player.
To Not Qualify for 2nd Rd:
Poland +150
Win
Gone after 2 games - good!
Germany +250
Go the Indomitable Lions!!
To Qualify for 2nd Rd:
USA +175
Very much in with a huge shot with 4 pts and Poland to play.
Top Asian team:
Japan +100
China and Saudi have been elimianted from the equation; down to the 2 co-hosts now.
Top African team:
Cameroon +170
Or Senegal. We'll find out tonight. Or even South Africa??!!
Outright:
Italy $7.50
A win v Mexico and they are still on track.
Brazil $9
Crusing thru group play, discovering some spark and on the right side of the draw.
Denmark topscorer:
Ebbe Sand $3.75 x 1 unit
No goals from one-half of the hedge play.
Jon Dahl Tomasson $3.75 x 1 unit
3 goals from the other Danish marksman should see us collect.
Head to Head:
Italy -133 o Brazil
Could yet see this one go right to the final. Or lose this week.
Portugal -117 o W Germany
Could go either way; tonight will be a big pointer.
Top Sth American team:
Brazil +125
Looks fine at this stage; go Sweden!
Total Goals:
161-180 +135
Means between 2.52 and 2.81 per game. Current average is 2.53.
Total Red Cards: u19 -111
Just 5 in 32 matches so far (halfway stage in terms of games).
Number of Goals Scored:
Belgium u5 -125 (2 units)
exactly 5 +400 (1 unit)
3 from 2 games; may not make 2nd rd.
Cameroon o5 +110
2 from 2 games, need to win tonite.
Ecuador u3 -117
1 from 2 matches, face Croatia in last group match.
W Germany u7 -127
L -1.27 units
Lost in game one (LMAO!!) and already added to props.
Paraguay u4 +125
3 in 2 games, face elimination v Slovenia.
Poland u5 -125
None in 2 games; looks kinda strong.
Rep Ireland u5 -117
2 in 2 games; hinges on what they do v Saudi.
Saudi o3 +210 (1 unit)
exactly 3 +350 (1 unit)
None in 2, what was I thinking of?!
Senegal o3 +210 (1 unit)
exactly 3 +350 (1 unit)
Two in 2, one more tonight would be lovely.
Sth Korea o3 -111
3 in 2 matches, need to score v Portugal.
Tunisia exactly 3 +400 (1 unit)
Need 2 v Japan; highly unlikely but not impossible.
To Win Group:
Group A:
Denmark $10 (half unit)
Still in with a chance tonite if France fire blanks again, a nice value for money wager.
Group B:
Spain -185 (2 units)
Looks very strong.
Group D:
Portugal -163 (2 units)
Back in contention in a very tight group.
Sth Korea $10 (half unit)
Could also be pipped by the US.
Group H:
Japan +225 (1 unit)
Nicely placed.
Sides: 14-17 +3.78 units
Totals: 7-4 +4.70 units
Props: 5-6 -0.70 units
An update for you all on how the pre-tournament prop plays are looking at this stage.
Have added the 3 completed plays to the 'Tournament to Date' stats.
The majority of the rest show plenty of promise and may bolster the profits - fingers crossed.
Golden Boot:
Henry 10-1
Hit the woodwork in game one, sent off in game 2 so no game 3 tonite. Needs 2 hat-tricks if France qualify.
Vieri 12-1
Great start, 3 goals in 2 games, has to make sure Italy don't flop v Mexico.
Owen 20-1
Got close v the Argies but yet to open account. Could still make a mark.
Larsson 51-1 (half-unit)
Giving me some value with both goals v Nigeria; hoping for an upset winner v Argentina too.
To Win Group B:
Slovenia 11-1
Lost
A little unlucky in the opener v Spain then the camp fell apart in a split between coach and star player.
To Not Qualify for 2nd Rd:
Poland +150
Win
Gone after 2 games - good!
Germany +250
Go the Indomitable Lions!!
To Qualify for 2nd Rd:
USA +175
Very much in with a huge shot with 4 pts and Poland to play.
Top Asian team:
Japan +100
China and Saudi have been elimianted from the equation; down to the 2 co-hosts now.
Top African team:
Cameroon +170
Or Senegal. We'll find out tonight. Or even South Africa??!!
Outright:
Italy $7.50
A win v Mexico and they are still on track.
Brazil $9
Crusing thru group play, discovering some spark and on the right side of the draw.
Denmark topscorer:
Ebbe Sand $3.75 x 1 unit
No goals from one-half of the hedge play.
Jon Dahl Tomasson $3.75 x 1 unit
3 goals from the other Danish marksman should see us collect.
Head to Head:
Italy -133 o Brazil
Could yet see this one go right to the final. Or lose this week.
Portugal -117 o W Germany
Could go either way; tonight will be a big pointer.
Top Sth American team:
Brazil +125
Looks fine at this stage; go Sweden!
Total Goals:
161-180 +135
Means between 2.52 and 2.81 per game. Current average is 2.53.
Total Red Cards: u19 -111
Just 5 in 32 matches so far (halfway stage in terms of games).
Number of Goals Scored:
Belgium u5 -125 (2 units)
exactly 5 +400 (1 unit)
3 from 2 games; may not make 2nd rd.
Cameroon o5 +110
2 from 2 games, need to win tonite.
Ecuador u3 -117
1 from 2 matches, face Croatia in last group match.
W Germany u7 -127
L -1.27 units
Lost in game one (LMAO!!) and already added to props.
Paraguay u4 +125
3 in 2 games, face elimination v Slovenia.
Poland u5 -125
None in 2 games; looks kinda strong.
Rep Ireland u5 -117
2 in 2 games; hinges on what they do v Saudi.
Saudi o3 +210 (1 unit)
exactly 3 +350 (1 unit)
None in 2, what was I thinking of?!
Senegal o3 +210 (1 unit)
exactly 3 +350 (1 unit)
Two in 2, one more tonight would be lovely.
Sth Korea o3 -111
3 in 2 matches, need to score v Portugal.
Tunisia exactly 3 +400 (1 unit)
Need 2 v Japan; highly unlikely but not impossible.
To Win Group:
Group A:
Denmark $10 (half unit)
Still in with a chance tonite if France fire blanks again, a nice value for money wager.
Group B:
Spain -185 (2 units)
Looks very strong.
Group D:
Portugal -163 (2 units)
Back in contention in a very tight group.
Sth Korea $10 (half unit)
Could also be pipped by the US.
Group H:
Japan +225 (1 unit)
Nicely placed.
Yesterday: World Cup; ATS 2-2 +0.15 units, Props 2-6 +0.10 units.
Tournament to date: 30-35 +7.93 units
Sides: 15-18 +3.93 units
Totals: 7-4 +4.70 units
Props: 8-13 -0.70 units
What started out looking like another tremendous day dulled with the late German win.
Cashed the ticket on the early goal in France v Denmark thanks to Rommedahl then Senegal collected again as dogs _ but thank heavens for hedging after they blew a 3-goal lead in an astounding game.
How Cameroon missed one of three gilt-edged chances in the first half-hour still baffles me. Then with one minute left in the prop play the Cameroon keeper performs his miracle to keep Ziege's drifting free-kick out of the net.
When the Germans were reduced to 10 men I thought we were set to go 3-1 but they rallied as they always do and when Lauren hit the woodwork in search of an equaliser I knew it wasn't going to be our morning.
A number of the early prop plays went down the gurgler _ Germany not to qualify, Cameroon top African team, Cameroon o5 goals, Rep Ire u5, Saudi 3 or over.
But we collected on Senegal o3 goals and cashed a big ticket on the Danes to win Group A at $10 for half a unit.
Jon Dahl Tomasson's 4th goal almost assures us of picking up that wager too later in the tournament as the Danes' topscorer.
Very busy performing a one-man band act at work today with eyes like pissholes in the snow so today's previews may not theaten Joycean length and insight.
Cheers
Anders
Tournament to date: 30-35 +7.93 units
Sides: 15-18 +3.93 units
Totals: 7-4 +4.70 units
Props: 8-13 -0.70 units
What started out looking like another tremendous day dulled with the late German win.
Cashed the ticket on the early goal in France v Denmark thanks to Rommedahl then Senegal collected again as dogs _ but thank heavens for hedging after they blew a 3-goal lead in an astounding game.
How Cameroon missed one of three gilt-edged chances in the first half-hour still baffles me. Then with one minute left in the prop play the Cameroon keeper performs his miracle to keep Ziege's drifting free-kick out of the net.
When the Germans were reduced to 10 men I thought we were set to go 3-1 but they rallied as they always do and when Lauren hit the woodwork in search of an equaliser I knew it wasn't going to be our morning.
A number of the early prop plays went down the gurgler _ Germany not to qualify, Cameroon top African team, Cameroon o5 goals, Rep Ire u5, Saudi 3 or over.
But we collected on Senegal o3 goals and cashed a big ticket on the Danes to win Group A at $10 for half a unit.
Jon Dahl Tomasson's 4th goal almost assures us of picking up that wager too later in the tournament as the Danes' topscorer.
Very busy performing a one-man band act at work today with eyes like pissholes in the snow so today's previews may not theaten Joycean length and insight.
Cheers
Anders
