Anders' World Cup Game-by-Game Plays

[Anders]

England v Nigeria) A point would secure England's passage into the next rd while Nigeria already have their bags packed.
Kanu may miss going up against Gooner team-mates Campbell, Cole and Seaman thru injury while Trevor Sinclair should start on the left for Eng-er-land after making a top impression coming off the bench for the injured Hargreaves.
Nigeria's coaching change prior to the tournament and many subsequent personnel changes hugely hindered their impact on the Cup. Many call Eriksson's side babes but Nigeria are far younger at an avg ave of 23.29 years and it shows.
However, with nothing to play with they could still be dangerous here. Sweden probably outplayed them in game two but did survive a number of very close shaves to get the win and England will be edgy now that everyone expects them to qualify.
Will pass the side and total and stay with the early prop play.

PLAY GOAL IN FIRST 35 MINUTES -110/$1.91

Argentina v Sweden) Sweden enter this game also knowing a point would be enough while the Argies must win.
Sweden seem set to miss defender and my cousin Patrik Anders-son (lol...) thru injury for the third successive game. Argentina may yet get Ayala back at the back but Walter Samuel has been fine as his replacement anyway. Expect Aimar to start after impressing as a sub v England in place of either the disappointing Veron or even Simeone.
I like the mental edge Sweden could have here against the desperate Argies. Magnus Hedman gives them great comfort behind a solid defence while Ljungberg and Larsson will get chances to break open the opposing defence.
I feel Argentina's depth has also been a drawback. Bielsa went to the bench very early against England and I feel he's still not certain what his best XI is or which combinations are the most effective. Batistuta gained the plaudits v Nigeria but was easily handled by the classy Ferdinand and Campbell and I'm sure the Swedes would be less comfortable v Crespo and Lopez, who continue to ride the pine.
Getting a goal start for the dogs is too good for me to miss.

PLAY SWEDEN +1 -122/$1.82

Slovenia v Paraguay) Paraguay need to win well and hope Sth Africa don't get a point against Spain if they wish to make the 2nd rd.
It seems they couldn't get a better opponent to make a go of it than Slovenia, who managed one shot on goal against the Bafana Bafana in game two. But apart from Roque Santa Cruz, Paraguay don't have a lot of ammunition offensively - Chilavert is probably their next big threat!
Have Slovenia given up and gone home mentally already. I don't know, and don't like wagering on too many intangibles.

NO PLAY

Spain v Sth Africa) Spain have already qualified and need a pt to secure top spot, which would mean an extra day off and a 2nd rd tie v Ireland. Second place would mean a game v Germany the previous day.
A pt would be enough for Sth Africa here too so I guess the draw has distinct appeal, but bookmakers have reacted in kind with the best price I could find being $2.87/+187.
Coach Camacho, he of the sweaty 'pits, may make a number of changes to his first-choice side here. Expect Xavi to get a start in midfield while Hierro and de Pedro should be rested and replaced by Helguerra and ther forgotten man Mendieta.
Sth Africa have been a surprise to date. They created enough nice chances v Slovenia to deserve their 3 pts. But Slovenia were uniformly awful and while it was a gallant fightback to gain a pt v Paraguay, they were 2nd best on the day.
Feel Spain's class should tell here but the group situation could strongly dictate the result so won't touch it.
Have 2 units on Spain to win the group; will cheer that on instead.

NO PLAY

GL all

 

[Anders]

Yesterday:

Overall: 2-2 +0.90 units; ATS 1-0 +1.00 units, Props 1-2 -0.10 units.

Tournament to date: 32-37 +8.83 units
Sides: 16-18 +4.93 units
Totals: 7-4 +4.70 units
Props: 9-14 -0.80 units


A reasonable day, particularly for those who don't have the "goal in ... mins" props at their books!
England and Nigeria could still be playing now and it'd be 0-0 _ although their keeper who looked like he'd struggle to catch a cold did pull off two fine saves to deny Heskey and Scholes.
But Sweden easily covered the goal start and were unluckly not to get all three points. Has the shift in the world footballing power axis moved to Scandanavia??
Lost the prop on Paraguay's total goals as they scored 3 times in the 2nd half with 10 men - aye caramba! - but made the profit for the day by Spain winning an exciting tussle with Sth Africa and securing the group win x 2 units.
Spain have looked slick in winning all 3 group games. But be careful of them entering the playoffs _ Group B's standard was poor.
Back later with today's previews and plays.

PS: Hope no-one feels this is an elitist thread with what I say gospel. More than keen to debate the merits of each play and talk 'capping and football with all members.

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

Anders:

Don't worry. Doesn't sound elitist at all. You've made valid points and have uncovered some nice picks/props. I've enjoyed watching the tournament. But I'm a little scared to spout my opinion, seeing that I'm an American and therefore a soccer novice.

That said, I'll go ahead and spout my feelings on a trend and some of the upcoming games/trends:

First, a trend to watch in Gm3's of the third round. You've hinted on it. But using a parallel to NFL's final week of the regular season, teams that "need" to win often (usually?) don't win. They squarely feel the pressure (France, Argentina) and more importantly, it would appear you pay an extra surcharge on the line b/c everyone and their dog knows "France must win by two goals to advance, etc."

Conversely, teams that have underachieved are dangerous in the spoiler role. Certainly, Nigeria didn't want to go home w/ zero points and gave a game effort. That said, would appear that a superior team needs just a draw to advance can normally dictate play in such a way that getting that result is very likely. Maybe I'm reading too much into recent gms, but those are my thoughts.

Korea(+0.5) -105 vs Port: I don't think the home field factor can be underestimated. I believe the stat I saw on ESPN was something like home tms in Round1 are now something like 33-6-9. 6 losses in 48 gms? Wow. These guys are in great shape and play at light speed. The Twelfth Man was urging them on all day vs the US. I really think the Koreans move on.

Denmark(+0.5) -130 vs England: The Danes look so fundamentally sound. Picked their spots beautifully vs France. England looks so unexplosive to me.

Sweden(-0.5) +120 vs Senegal: Surrendering that 3-0 vs Uruguay could be a danger sign imo. Don't like seeing a lapse like that. Swedes maybe more consistent. And does that Senegal win over France really look that great right now? France was shutout 3 consecutive gms, amidst injuries and suspensions. And one could argue Senegal's win was very fortunate, considering they forced 0 corner kicks, had about 2 scoring chances, and lucked out on a goal thx to a double deflection which happened to land on Diop's foot while he was sliding on his rear.

Ireland(-0.5) +650 w/ Draw kicker(+210). I love this team's heart. There is no question that you're going to get 90 minutes of effort from Mick's bunch. Playing w/o Roy may have raised their focus(?). Worth noting the Irish fan backing, too. They virtually willed Robby Keane to that game-tying goal vs Germany. And Anders hit on a key point: Spain's 3-0 mark came in one of the weaker groups.

Just my two cents. Note: I wouldn't really recommend these plays until one of the Soccer experts signs off on em. GL!

 

[Anders]

Very, very impressive CTG my man

Hope others read that post closely - valid points abound. The pt u make about the 'must-win' games should be part of Essential Handicapping 101....

It also forms a decent part of my China +2 wager... and in some way pt of the Brazil play too...

Am posting the early games now; work means the latter 2 matches may be thru in an hr or so..

Thanks again Chuck

:toast:


Brazil v Costa Rica) A draw would get Costa Rica thru to the next rd _ although they may not even need that if Turkey can't beat China.
Brazil have already qualified so will rest Roberto Carlos, Ronaldinho and Roque Junior and replace them with Junior, Edmilson and Edilson _ rather handy back-up players!
Costa Rica came home with a wet sail to get a point v Turkey after their 2-0 win over China. But I felt Turkey were the better side in that encounter while Costa Rica struggled to break down China.
I don't expect Brazil to sit back despite their group position, With France and Argentina out, I believe Brazil would like to make a statement to say that they are now Cup favourites with the perfect record in an easy group. With Ronaldo, Rivaldo and Edmilson involved, they have plenty of offensive weapons to attack Costa Rica with.

PLAY BRAZIL ML -167/$1.60
PLAY BRAZIL -1 +111/$2.11
PLAY GOAL IN FIRST 33 MINS -110/$1.91

Turkey v China) Turkey need to win, hopefully by a couple of goals and hope Brazil don't let Costa Rica nab a pt to make rd two.
Striker Hakan Sukur and keeper Rustu Recber have knocks but should be fit to play while Alpay and Hakan Unsal are available again after serving their respective suspensions. In a move to get goals, Turkey may start their domestic league's topscorer Mansiz up front alongside Sukur.
China are hoping key defenders Fan Zhiyi and Sun Jihai have recovered from the injuries that kept them out of the match against Brazil. Speedy striker Qu Bo may start up front as they seek their first goal of the tournament.
Turkey's late lapses have cost them dearly and China may fancy their chances of getting on the scoresheet. They showed a bit of fight against Brazil and I imagine Miltunovic and his troops will be very keen to ensure they don't go out of the tournament without firing a shot.
To get them getting two goals as a start is far too good to resist.

PLAY CHINA +2 -111/$1.90


GL all back in a wee while ...

 

[Anders]

Croatia v Ecuador) Croatia know that a draw won't be enough given their goal difference, even if Mexico knock over Italy. Only a win will suffice to make rd two, and it may yet require a two-goal margin depending on the final score in the Mexico/Italy match-up.
But they will have grown an extra leg from their comeback, if somewhat fortuitous win over Italy. The switch from the '98 veterans to young blood paid big dividends v Italy so Prosinecki and Suker will again be on the bench.
The dangerous left-footer Milan Rapaic will support the astute Boskic up front while Vugrinec may hold off the challenge of goalscoring sub Olic in the starting line-up.
Ecuador won't want to go home from their first world cup pointless. But team harmony doesn't appear all that bright and while they are physically gifted, most players have struggled to adjust to the tactical and mental demands of playing at this level.
An early goal would be a huge boon to the Croats beating the goal start.

PLAY CROATIA -1 -111/$1.90

Italy v Mexico) Will the Azzurri become the third big name sent home red-faced from the tournament in the first rd?
Trappatoni's boys must feel a little uncomfortable facing potential elimination after watching France and Argentina bow out. But they have more experience than most in this situation _ they always start group play sluggishly before blossoming late in the tournament.
Trap shouldn't be pushing the panic buttons. While the defence looked shaky v Croatia after Nesta went off, Italy still would have emerged victorious if not for an erroneous offside call and a debatable free-kick decision on Inzaghi.
However, he seems set to fiddle with the side's formation; being likely to revert from the 4-4-2 v Croatia to the 3-4-1-2 that served them so well in qualifying.
That could see Inzaghi or even the not-yet-used Montella joining the in-form Vieri up front with babe magnet Totti in his more favoured role of playing just behind the front two. Still a big question mark on Nesta's fitness _ Mark Iuliano has been working in his place at training and may step in ahead of Materazzi if Nesta can't make it.
Not sure what to make of the tales of Mexico's internal problems involving coach Aguirre, fiery striker Blanco and out-of-favour attacker Palencia. They certainly have looked in tune on the pitch and Italy must combat the busy playmaker Torrado if they want to dominate possession.
Very wary of backing a favourite in this tournament. But I think we may have had our share of upsets for a day at least and look to the vastly experienced Italians to impose themselves in time to qualify for the knockout round.

PLAY ITALY -1 -102/$1.98
PLAY ITALY ML -190/$1.53
PLAY UNDER 2.5 GOALS -125


A lot of plays for me

GL to us then

 

[KsYaS]

Jus two things:

- Mexico leaves in this situation!! always is on the edge !!! to qualify and now to qualify again, they do it with a draw in 1994 on the "Group of death", why not today when they are with advantage and looks to the other favorite go out if Croatia wins ok!!

- Torrado is not the only contention man, sincerely, Mexico have only contention men, a lot of, the 90% of the players play this, hehehehehee, if Italy goes with inzaghi with a 3-4-1-2 We'll see another contention, maybe German Villa (who plays in USA 94 and France 98, and is still pretty youth) Mercado, etc.


That is all, maybe Mexico can't win but they will start thinking they can do it and the draw looks so easy!! Do you bet on France and Argentina??? just a question!


Good luck

And only the best should win!!! no matter what the hell happens the best in a game wins!!!!


Javier


*Thank god France gone, I don't want to see another final bougth!!

 

[Mr.]

Good luck tonight, big guy! Think I may throw a bit on Italy later as well.



VIVA ITALIA!!!!!!!!

 

[KsYaS]

VIVA MEXICO CABRONES

 

[Antonio]

Un Cabrone sei anche tu amico bello :thefinger

 

[KsYaS]

Good luck on next round Italy!




Javier

 

[Anders]

KsYaS - congrats; your countrymen played very well

Well, the upsets never cease do they? Imagine if the tournament had lost France, Argentina and Italy in the first round! As it was, Del Piero's equaliser wasn't essential because of Ecuador's surprise win over Croatia. The faves getting beaten cost us yesterday although Brazil's hectic 5-2 win ensured that the damage was fairly minimal.

Tournament to Date: 36-41 +7.46 units
Sides: 18-23 +1.56 units
Totals: 8-4 +5.70 units
Props: 10-14 +0.20 units

Four final group matches today; best if I look closely at totals I think given the record.

Portugal v Sth Korea: 3 teams chasing two qualifying spots from Group D included these two.
The co-host's coach Guus Hiddink has promised another fast-paced effort from his side and while Portugal did tighten up defensively and tactically v Poland their natural flair is still to push forward, particularly out wide.
Portugal scored 33 times in 10 qualifying matches and in Pauleta, Figo, Conceicao and Nuno Gomes have the skills to test the Korean defence. Expect Joao Pinto to again start as playmaker with Rui Costa coming off the bench late to exploit any tiredness or lapses in concentration.
Goalscoring sub v the US Ahn Jung-hwan may start today with quick left-winger Lee Young-pyo a possible sub now he is back from injury.
Both teams probably expect the US to get at least a point from Poland. That would mean Portugal would need to win to qualify. Expect them to up the tempo thru-out, something which would suit Sth Korea. Hard to back an over in such a crucial match but I believe these two will go at each other a lot more than some teams.

PLAY OVER 2.5 -105

*Note: We have 2 units on Portugal to win the group, half a unit on Sth Korea at $10 and a unit on the US to qualify at +175/$2.75. Should get a collect somewhere; just depends on the $ value!

US v Poland: A point will get the US thru to rd 2, which would be a huge success for Bruce Arena and his troops.
Therefore, defensive solidarity has to be priority number one for the US side against a team yet to score in the comp. Poland are likely to make some changes in personnel with nothing hinging on this game for them and that is unlikely to help them find a rhythm.
With Brad Friedel shining in goal and the US set to use Brian McBride as the sole targetman with support from his wide midfielders, the under has big appeal.

PLAY UNDER 2.5 -115
PLAY NO GOAL 1ST 32 MINS -110

Belgium v Russia: A draw could be enough for Russia barring an upset in the Japan v Tunisia match. They should also adopt an ultra-cautious approach with captain Viktor Onopko marshalling the defence in his 100th match and playmaker Alexander Mostovoi possibly back from injury.
Belgium, desperate for 3 pts, must try and use the pace of Wesley Sonck from the start instead of off the bench as veretan attacking midfielder Marc Wilmots has been their only offensive weapon to date.
A game that has 1-1 draw written all over it to me.

PLAY BELGIUM/RUSSIA DRAW +225/$3.25
PLAY UNDER 2.5 -120

Japan v Tunisia: Osaka should be rocking for this one - neither co-host wants to become the first host side not to make the 2nd rd and Japan are in pole position with 4 points.
Tunisia showed some nice individual touches against Belgium through silky skills from Ghodbane and Gabsi but the drive, pace and motivation of Troussier's troops should carry the day here - winning this group means a 2nd rd meeting with Turkey; 2nd spot results in a knockout game v Brazil!
Played this one pre-tournament at a nice price and with a unit on them to win the group at +225/$325, will be cheering on the Japanese with fervour.

PLAY JAPAN -130/$1.77

GL all

 

[Anders]

Thank goodness for the futures props

Tournament to Date: 40-47 +9.96
Sides: 19-24 +1.56
Totals: 8-7 +2.30
Props: 13-16 +6.10

Write-ups will be very late today if at all

Plays:

Germany -135
Ger/Par u2.5 -120
Eng/Den u2.5 -135

GL

 

[Anders]

Hell, couldn't let my mates down

Germany v Paraguay: Hard to go past the Germans in the first of the knockout games.
Relative failures at the last two World Cups mean they have lost their air of invincibility when favoured at this stage. But they have regrouped wonderfully since the 5-1 home drubbing by England in the qualifiers and must now be full of confidence.
Klose and Jancker will test Ayala and Gamara in the air and given Chilavert's vampire effort v Spain, expect the Germans to be swinging plenty of crosses into the box.
Ramelow is suspended for Germany, along with Ziege and Hamman. But their is reasonable depth in Rudi Voeller's side. Midfielder Michael Ballack is the key to spark them pushing forward - he is in doubt with a brusied foot but players don't pull out of games at this stage unless they're dead.
After destroying the Saudis, Germany sat back on their early goal v Ireland and paid for it in the 92nd min. But their effort to beat Cameroon under pressure with 10 men was outstanding.
Paraguay are unlikely to start 2nd half substitute and hero of the comeback win v Slovenia Nelson Cuevas. Their major concerns though are the suspension of midfielder Paredes and an injury to Acuna.
Paraguay have twice been knocked out in the 2nd rd by European sides at the last two tournaments while Germany hasn't lost to a Sth American tean at the event since the '86 3-2 final event by Argentina.
Yes, we've had a Cup of upsets. Do they stop now? Don't know, but I like the mindset of the Germans and Paraguay's group was not an exceptional one and they were well beaten by the only classy side they faced; Spain.
Chilavert might fancy his chances of scoring but if I'm going to put my cash on a team I'd take Oliver Kahn between the sticks ahead of Chilavert any day.
Also like the under for a lot of matches from here on in - we are now at the stage we're teams will play safety first and know just one goal against could be enough to send them out.

PLAY GERMANY -135
PLAY UNDER 2.5 -120

England v Denmark: Yes, Denmark do have plenty of appeal as the underdogs here. But there's still a sneaking suspicion that England may finally hit their stride at this part of the tournament. The Danes were very solid in topping Group A but the thigh injury to 4-goal Jon Dahl Tomasson is a big blow - he will start the game but won't be 100%, nor will bulldozing midfielder Stig Tofting and I'm not certain winger Jesper Gronjkaer is fully fit either - he will expect a decent whack early from Danny Mills.
England did enough to get thru and no more. But that was still a notable success when you remember they survived the group of death. A very good 1st half v Sweden was followed by an abysmal 2nd; they outplayed Argentina until sitting back late and soaking up the pressure, then bored their way to the safe point they needed v Nigeria.
Their biggest disappointment so far has been Michael Owen, yet to score a goal. But it's not necessarily Owen's form that is the problem, rather the service he gets and the lack of combination with Heskey. England fans must hope Eriksson changes tactics and uses Sheringham or Vassell but I don't expect that will happen until late in the game.
With Hargreaves injured, Sinclair will start again and must work hard against Rommedahl to support Ashley Cole, whose strength is pushing forward and not his defence. Beckham must start to dictate the midfield and be more penetrative with his passing for England to push forward.
A very tight encounter is expected. England's centrebacks Ferdinand and Campbell have been superb so far and with Tomasson not fit, it's hard to see Denmark cracking the defence often with Seaman also in fine touch in goal. Sorensen has also been sharp for the Danes with Heintze marshalling the Denmark defence majestically.
Hard to see more than a goal in this one; wouldn't be surprised by extra time or penalties.

PLAY ENG/DEN UNDER 2.5 -135

GL all

 

[ChuckyTheGoat]

2-0 on Germany gm. Nice calls, Anders.

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

Nice calls on the Germany game Anders....

 

[Anders]

Thanx guys; who woulda thought that Donkey Heskey would have killed an under huh


Tournament to Date: 46-52 +11.29 units
Sides: 20-24 +2.56 units
Totals: 9-8 +1.95 units
Props: 17-20 +6.78 units


Sweden v Senegal: Can Senegal's fairytale run continue? Until a few days ago I rated them a good a chance as any side to make the final but recent events have changed my mind.
Their impressive defence, which shuddered a little against Uruguay's desperate all-out assault, seems certain to be without two regulars thru injury, skipper Cisse and right-back Coly.
The you add in the suspensions of hugely influential midfielders Salif Diao and Fadiga, and I believe the Africans have some notable problems. El Diouf will still test the Swedish defenders with his pace and trickery but Fadiga and Diao, along with Diop, have been the driving force of this side.
Sweden's only injury concerns are to Freddie Ljungberg and keeper Magnus Hedman, but both will start.
The Swedes will have drawn inspiration from England's 3-0 win last night. Remember Sweden, widely picked to be dumped in the 1st rd as the bottom team in their group, topped the 'Group of Death' by beating Nigeria and getting points against both England and Argentina.
They are well organised at the back and Hedman is a super goalkeeper _ less prone to an error like Sorenson's last night that can change a game; however I suspect Senegal's Tony Sylva, while a brilliant shot-stopper, appears like one of those keepers who may yet make an awful blunder.
Henrik Larsson will look to exploit any disorganisation in the Senegalese back four without Cisse and Ljungberg may switch flanks often to probe the Senegal right without Coly, as left-back Daf is a super little athlete with quick feet who should be capable of patrolling Ljunberg if he plays on Sweden's right.
Suprised to see the over total so high at +135 and tempted to play that but will stick with the Swedes.

PLAY SWEDEN ML +125/$2.25

Spain v Ireland) Spain joined Brazil as the only qualifiers to win all three group games. But I believe they both profited from playing in similarly weak groups.
Spain scored three times in all three matches and the likes of Raul, Morientes and Enrique from midfield will definitely test the Irish back four. Right-back Gary Kelly is the only genuinely quick defender in the Irish side so Staunton, the impressive Gary Breen and Ian Harte will all be put under pressure by the Spanish pace and quick ball movement.
The worrying aspect if you are a Spanish backer is their own defence. They conceded four goals in three group games against very average teams and reinforced the thought I put forward at the start of the tournament that this team's weakness is the central defensive pairing of Nadal and Hierro. They are now 35 and 34 respectively and while Hierro is a lovely ball player going forward, they are deficient defending and to back Spain I'd have to have the more athletic and sound Helguera starting.
The problem for Ireland is _ will Robbie Keane and Damien Duff be able to put enough pressure on Spain to make capital? The pair will roam wide and look to take on players outside the box but I feel Ireland don't have much attacking support for the duo bar left-sided midfielder Kevin Kilbane, who can sometimes create space for some dangerous crosses.
Just don't know which way this will go. Because of Spain's defensive problems and their attacking game, the over again has appeal but I think Ireland will look to sit back very tightly and soak up a lot of pressure and try to sneak a winner in a tight encounter.
So....

NO PLAY

Have updated the 'tournament to date' record with a number of pre-event prop plays being completed. Collected on Tomasson being the Danes' topscorer, Braxil being top Sth Am side and won two and lost three of the "total goals" wagers.

The remaining futures/props plays I have in the tournament are as follows:

Outrights: Italy $7.50; Brazil $9.

Golden Boot: Vieri (3 goals) 12-1; Owen 20-1 (1 goal); Larsson 51-1 (half-unit) (2 goals).

Top Asian team: Japan +100

Head-to-head: Italy o Brazil -133


Total Goals: 161-180 +135 (currently 134 goals)

Total Red Cards: u19 -111 (currently 14)



GL all

 

[kickserv]

Hey Anders........like some of those props......go get em!!!

 

[Anders]

0-1 y'day as the Senegalese stop Sweden's advance. Fantastic match, enjoyed watching it even though it finished 1-1 after 90; u could have made a very valid argument for either team winning.
Ireland v Spain was fantastic viewing too; counting the Spanish very lucky after that one...

Here's today's daily blah....


Tournament to Date: 46-53 +10.29 units
Sides: 20-25 +1.56 units
Totals: 9-8 +1.95 units
Props: 17-20 +6.78 units

US v Mexico: No doubt Mexico have been one of the best-performed sides at the tournament to date. They outplayed Croatia, Ecuador and then Italy in Group play with a brand of quick-passing football based around movement off the ball and excellent team-work.
My chief concern with them is their inability to finish sides off. Borgetti scored a terrific goal against the Italians and Blanco is a talismanic figure for Mexico but has only netted 17 goals in 76 international appearance.
Blanco scored no fewer than nine of Mexico's 16 goals in the World Cup qualifiers despite only starting four games and coming on as a substitute in another three.
Maybe it's a good sign then that they have been practising their penalties at training _ Blanco, Borgetti, Garcia Aspe and Hernandez have all been working on their technique.
That would be necessary if it comes down to a shootout considering the form of Brad Friedel in goal for the US, who already has two spot-kick saves to his credit from group play.
Mexico and the United States have met 46 times in the past, with the Mexicans winning 28 and the US nine. The US went for over 40 years and 20 matches between the 1930s and 1980 without ever beating Mexico in a competitive fixture. But recently the two sides have been more evenly matched, and they both won one apiece in their two qualifying games for this World Cup.
US coach Bruce Arena has not surprisingly predicted a tight defensive battle.
``Traditional games between the US and Mexico are low-scoring, they tend to be very defensive, they tend to have very few chances. That's my history of this rivalry,'' he said.
``Both teams will play well defensively and look to jump on any kind of jumping opportunities they create.''
In eight matches since 1995, only one game has gone over the 2.5 goal total.
In Friday's loss to Poland, Jeff Agoos injured his right calf and Frankie Hejduk got suspended after picking up his second yellow card of the tournament but Arena hasn't give any hints at likely replacements.
The best 30 mins of the tournament for the US came in the opening match when they plundered the hapless Portugese defence. Since then, there hasn't been a great deal to recommend apart from a spirited rearguard action to secure a point against Sth Korea. Against already eliminated Poland, there was very little to get excited about.
In McBride and Mathis they have handy athletes who will work hard all day and wingers Donovan and Beasley are tricky customers.
But Friedel should have his hands full marshalling a re-arranged defensive line-up.
Mexico's defence will be ruled by skipper and centre back Rafael Marquez, who was brilliant against Italy, showing why he's being headhunted by Real Madrid. Again, the busy and accurate Gerardo Torrado will tick things over in the middle of the park.
The Mexicans have grown an extra leg under Aguirre since he revitalised their qualifying campaign. While the US have won three of the last four encounters between these sides in recent years, the qualifiers were shared 1-1 and the other two games were friendlies.
In this heady atmosphere I'll back the better equipped side.

PLAY MEXICO ML +100/$2
PLAY MEXICO TO ADVANCE -190/$1.53
PLAY MEXICO/US UNDER 2.5 -125/$1.80


Brazil v Belgium: Brazil's coach "Big Phil" Scolari subjected his players to a horror movie after their 5-2 win over Costa Rica.
Scolari made them watch the worst half hour of that encounter when Costa Rica could have, with an ounce more luck and touch of class, could have netted at least another 3 against the new title favourites.
The Brazilians have been bombarded with Scolari's videos since they left on all manner of subjects. One suspects the memorable Brazilian sides of yore would have laughed at the video nasty and told the coach "Don't worry, we'll just score more than they do."
Hard to imagine a side whose strengths are Ronaldo, Rivaldo and attacking fullbacks Roberto Carlos and Cafu saying anything different.
The good news is they have no injuries or suspensions, with Roberto Carlos and attacking midfielder Ronaldinho both returning after being rested against Costa Rica. Scolari may reshuffle his defence with Edmilson stepping in for Anderson Polga, who has started their last two games.
In a weak group, Brazil netted 11 times and Ronaldo, with four goals, looks finally to be getting close to back to his best after a horror injury run.
Belgium finished runners-up in their group with a strong effort to send Russia packing in their final match after patchy efforts against Japan and Tunisia.
For a team that seemed to be a dull 4-4-2 outfit with little imagination, they somewhat surprisingly tallied 6 goals in 3 games and have their own talisman in skipper Marc Wilmots, taking part in his fourth World Cup.
Coach Robert Waseige must be sorely tempted to play striker Wesley Sonck, who has been out of starting favour but did net against the Russians, in an attempt to provide greater pace and a counter-attacking threat up front.
In a perfect world, Brazil should win and win easily. But how many games have we already said that about at the World Cup only for it not to happen?
Brazil '02 has a strong whiff of Brazil '82 to me about them now that Scolari has abandoned the defensive game that saw them blunder thru qualifying. Yet they don't have the amount of world class players that side did, especially in midfield _ no Falcao, Cerezo, Eder or Falcao here. Their defensive vulnerabilities are a big concern to someone who would get a very nice collect from them going all the way.
In a match at this stage of the tournament, getting +1 goal is nice. Getting +1.5 is too much to resist.

PLAY BELGIUM +1.5 -125/$1.80

GL all

 

[TIME TO MAKE $$$]

good luck today Anders...

 

[Anders]

Yesterday: 1-3 -3.10 units


Tournament to Date: 47-56 +8.19 units
Sides: 20-28 -1.54 units
Totals: 10-8 +2.95 units
Props: 17-20 +6.78 units

A warning: For those not interested in reading material consisting chiefly of grumbling about bad beats; just skip this rubbish. But hey, sometimes u just gotta vent yer spleen.

I can't tell u how gutted I was at 1.20am this morning.
I could live with the US upset of Mexico. But to deal a man suffering badly from sleep dep a second cruel blow was a tad harsh on old Anders.
Let's look realistically at both games.
The US beat Mexico with a combination of five things _ outstanding goalkeeping (combined with some gallant defence), tactical superiority, poor finishing (by their opponents), luck, and an atrocious piece of work by the match officials.
Some of these aspects I had covered in the match preview _ Friedel's ability, the US tactical approach, Mexico's lack of strikepower _ so I'm probably more pissed at my poor play than any injustice in the result.
The US sucked up the pressure and hit the favourites hard on the break as Mexico's inability to hit the target stopped them converting their dominance of possession and position.
Once again, however, a critical refereeing blunder has played a huge part in deciding the result of a World Cup match. How ref Melo Pereira and his linesman missed the blatant handball which would have set up an equaliser for the Mexicans was simply inexcusable.
The error had a massive bearing on the final outcome as a successful spotkick at that stage would have undeniably swung the game Mexico's way. Not saying they would have won, but it was a huge momentum-changing moment.
Onto game two then; 1-2 on the day and kicking myself a little for some handicapping errors more than anything.
Brazil's individual brilliance helped them create some strong first-half chances that weren't taken.
But Waseige won the tactical battle by getting his side to push numbers forward on attack and test the brittle Brazilian defence.
Again, the game swung on a glaring refereeing mistake. Peter Pendergrast got it horribly wrong when he ruled out Wilmots' header when the veteran Belgium midfielder simply outmuscled Roque Junior.
For Wilmots to later say ``I asked the referee and he said he had seen the pictures at halftime and that there hadn't been a foul, but it was too late" is just horrendously galling.
After growing in confidence from their 1st half effort, Belgium dominated most of the 2nd spell but some fantastic saves from Marcos kept the match scoreless until Rivaldo struck.
Wonderful control and a great strike, but can someone please stop the fugging commentators from calling it the best goal at the Cup!! Fact: If it hadn't deflected off Timmy Simons it would have been saved.
Once that goal went in I always felt the +1.5 play on Belgium would be sunk by a late breakaway goal as Belgium threw caution to the wind. So it proved.
But it's cruel to kick a man when he's down.
Into injury time, and Bart Goor fluffs the biggest sitter in the Cup to date when he can't hit the barn door from 10 yards out.
From this day on, that man will simply be known as You Filthy Goor (it's in the pronounciation...) in my household.
I guess the two consolations were this: a) I get a $9 outright shot into the quarters (although I fancy England to roll them); and b) my wife drew Ronaldo in the Golden Boot sweepstake I ran at work. If she had been up watching the game and celebrated his goal, I reckon my lawyer would have produced a pretty genuine argument in my favour for the case for what would have followed next.

Well, do I feel any better for writing this. A little _ it has had a mild cathartic benefit. But I still feel like shit. This may have to do with living on 4 hrs sleep since the tournament kicked off.
Hopefully I'll break out of the funk in time to 'cap today's two games without any ill-perceived injustices still existing to throw me off my work.

Just also like to take this opp to say a big word of gratitude to all who have read my takes on the tournament so far and particularly those who have offered feedback _ all communication is wonderfully appreciated.

Ah well, onwards and upwards....

Cheers
Anders