BASON 2020-2021 Season

[BASON]

I still like them at 3. I am just willing to pay a little for the win versus the push.

There is a discussion about this a few days ago in the thread. I will buy the totals down a lot to get to a favorable number. You can only do this at the larger books that provide all soccer plays. Many of the smaller books do not do this and tend to have really bad numbers especially on totals. They tend to go with the higher number and avoid asian lines. I get that the Salzburg game is at 3, but the Lazio game was at 2.5 a few places much earlier this morning and is probably -2.75 most place now. Many of the smaller books do not even offer BTTS bets and limit parlays.

Smaller books are just not great places for soccer bettors. Heritage, Bovada, Bet 365 and Bookmaker are all European based/type books that offer great soccer betting.

 

[Keith 1]

I still like them at 3. I am just willing to pay a little for the win versus the push.

There is a discussion about this a few days ago in the thread. I will buy the totals down a lot to get to a favorable number. You can only do this at the larger books that provide all soccer plays. Many of the smaller books do not do this and tend to have really bad numbers especially on totals. They tend to go with the higher number and avoid asian lines. I get that the Salzburg game is at 3, but the Lazio game was at 2.5 a few places much earlier this morning and is probably -2.75 most place now. Many of the smaller books do not even offer BTTS bets and limit parlays.

Smaller books are just not great places for soccer bettors. Heritage, Bovada, Bet 365 and Bookmaker are all European based/type books that offer great soccer betting.

Thanks Bason. I have two on-lines that I use, but they both of the smaller variety. Which of course has other advantages (if you know what I mean).

 

[tt boy]

lazio over hits before the half hour:0074

 

[Crookity]

lazio over hits before the half hour:0074

That was a beauty of a call, overlooked this one myself. I was happy to throw it in a parlay though to have some early day action while I work. :0074

 

[Keith 1]

Sweet !

 

[BASON]

That is the way we like it, especially not with a red card and a monsoon.

I am not a big fan of this bet as I do not like the way Dortmund is playing, but they now know they have to win so down 1-0 and already having the Lazio bet in the bag, I am playing:

Dortmund -122 SH

Can not bring Renya and Sancho into the game fast enough.

 

[Tommy Shelby]

lazio over hits before the half hour:0074

Please root for those of us that got 3

👊🏻👊🏻

 

[tt boy]

lazio concedes to 10 man brugge...brutal-2-2:mj07:

 

[tt boy]

Please root for those of us that got 3

👊🏻👊🏻

winner

 

[BASON]

Please root for those of us that got 3

👊🏻👊🏻

I most certainly did. I never thought it was in doubt. Have to give credit to Brugge, great effort and you see why I did not trust Lazio.

Big double up in Dortmund also.

Makes it easy to just sit back and enjoy the afternoon as the parlay is just gravy after those two.

I added more to the Salzburg total.

 

[Keith 1]

Thanks Bason

(if Barca could beat Juventus would be nice too).

 

[BASON]

I do not make a lot of BTTS bets on their own because they can be pricey and today was a good example of why in the Juve/Barca game when you get a line close to -200. However, I like BTTS parlays and I have one more for tomorrow:

Ajax
Salzburg
Real
Inter

Pays +510 and I like it.

Not adding anything else as I have plenty on the Salzburg/Atletico over and its all I need given todays winnings.

 

[BASON]

Keith (answer from NCAA forum),

That is just how the 3-way line software is set up. You have to offer both lines and sometimes they are simply the same. You will also find discrepancies all the time. It could have the GL at -120 and the ML at -123. Soccer lines can differ greatly from book to book also which is why you need a large European based book or one set up just like it to properly bet soccer. It is a must and makes a real difference as you will see when I move the lines. I also always post my plays at the line I actually played it on. Moving totals and team totals makes a huge difference over time especially when you bet real money, so I do not mind laying juice when I am confident just to avoid a possible push. It also allows for great parlay opportunities. I try to limit the number of plays I post, but when I like games I play them multiple ways and in multiple parlays. I am a firm believer in betting big in certain situations and taking advantage of hot streaks.

A nice streak can pad your bankroll for the year as I think some on this board can attest to. It is kind of like black jack for me. I always laugh at players that sit there and make the same bet every hand no matter what. You make money in BJ by upping bets when it is hot, walking away when it is done and booking profits. If you do not, you are dead. I rarely last more than an hour at a table, while I have seen people at high dollar tables sit for hours upon hours. I once had a long-time pit boss in Vegas at the Mirage tell me I was one of the most disciplined players he has ever seen and the casino hated me. It is all about making money, same with sports betting. You ride the hot streaks, make big calculated bets and you always, I mean always, book profits. The biggest mistakes made by young sports bettors is not booking profits and always believing that they will continue to win. There is nothing wrong with having some fun and spreading money around in other sports, but I do this to make money. It is a job that I spend countless hours working on, so at the end of the day I want to get paid.

Others may disagree with this, but I have been at this a long time and that is how you make money, especially betting in soccer. You need to become immune to juice over time in soccer. It can be a tough hurdle to overcome. Trust me, I do not like laying big numbers all the time, but sometimes you simply have to when you really like a game and it can make a huge difference in soccer. You just have to limit it because a big loss can do a lot of damage.

Sorry, I guess I have gotten off point, but I have learned some very hard and expensive lessons over the years and try to pass on a little wisdom when I can. I still make emotional mistakes from time to time, but not nearly as much as I used to.

 

[Keith 1]

Keith (answer from NCAA forum),

That is just how the 3-way line software is set up. You have to offer both lines and sometimes they are simply the same. You will also find discrepancies all the time. It could have the GL at -120 and the ML at -123. Soccer lines can differ greatly from book to book also which is why you need a large European based book or one set up just like it to properly bet soccer. It is a must and makes a real difference as you will see when I move the lines. I also always post my plays at the line I actually played it on. Moving totals and team totals makes a huge difference over time especially when you bet real money, so I do not mind laying juice when I am confident just to avoid a possible push. It also allows for great parlay opportunities. I try to limit the number of plays I post, but when I like games I play them multiple ways and in multiple parlays. I am a firm believer in betting big in certain situations and taking advantage of hot streaks.

A nice streak can pad your bankroll for the year as I think some on this board can attest to. It is kind of like black jack for me. I always laugh at players that sit there and make the same bet every hand no matter what. You make money in BJ by upping bets when it is hot, walking away when it is done and booking profits. If you do not, you are dead. I rarely last more than an hour at a table, while I have seen people at high dollar tables sit for hours upon hours. I once had a long-time pit boss in Vegas at the Mirage tell me I was one of the most disciplined players he has ever seen and the casino hated me. It is all about making money, same with sports betting. You ride the hot streaks, make big calculated bets and you always, I mean always, book profits. The biggest mistakes made by young sports bettors is not booking profits and always believing that they will continue to win. There is nothing wrong with having some fun and spreading money around in other sports, but I do this to make money. It is a job that I spend countless hours working on, so at the end of the day I want to get paid.

Others may disagree with this, but I have been at this a long time and that is how you make money, especially betting in soccer. You need to become immune to juice over time in soccer. It can be a tough hurdle to overcome. Trust me, I do not like laying big numbers all the time, but sometimes you simply have to when you really like a game and it can make a huge difference in soccer. You just have to limit it because a big loss can do a lot of damage.

Sorry, I guess I have gotten off point, but I have learned some very hard and expensive lessons over the years and try to pass on a little wisdom when I can. I still make emotional mistakes from time to time, but not nearly as much as I used to.

Thanks Bason. Appreciate your time (and the picks !). Now let's hit that Salzburg/Atletico total today

 

[Crookity]

Keith (answer from NCAA forum),

That is just how the 3-way line software is set up. You have to offer both lines and sometimes they are simply the same. You will also find discrepancies all the time. It could have the GL at -120 and the ML at -123. Soccer lines can differ greatly from book to book also which is why you need a large European based book or one set up just like it to properly bet soccer. It is a must and makes a real difference as you will see when I move the lines. I also always post my plays at the line I actually played it on. Moving totals and team totals makes a huge difference over time especially when you bet real money, so I do not mind laying juice when I am confident just to avoid a possible push. It also allows for great parlay opportunities. I try to limit the number of plays I post, but when I like games I play them multiple ways and in multiple parlays. I am a firm believer in betting big in certain situations and taking advantage of hot streaks.

A nice streak can pad your bankroll for the year as I think some on this board can attest to. It is kind of like black jack for me. I always laugh at players that sit there and make the same bet every hand no matter what. You make money in BJ by upping bets when it is hot, walking away when it is done and booking profits. If you do not, you are dead. I rarely last more than an hour at a table, while I have seen people at high dollar tables sit for hours upon hours. I once had a long-time pit boss in Vegas at the Mirage tell me I was one of the most disciplined players he has ever seen and the casino hated me. It is all about making money, same with sports betting. You ride the hot streaks, make big calculated bets and you always, I mean always, book profits. The biggest mistakes made by young sports bettors is not booking profits and always believing that they will continue to win. There is nothing wrong with having some fun and spreading money around in other sports, but I do this to make money. It is a job that I spend countless hours working on, so at the end of the day I want to get paid.

Others may disagree with this, but I have been at this a long time and that is how you make money, especially betting in soccer. You need to become immune to juice over time in soccer. It can be a tough hurdle to overcome. Trust me, I do not like laying big numbers all the time, but sometimes you simply have to when you really like a game and it can make a huge difference in soccer. You just have to limit it because a big loss can do a lot of damage.

Sorry, I guess I have gotten off point, but I have learned some very hard and expensive lessons over the years and try to pass on a little wisdom when I can. I still make emotional mistakes from time to time, but not nearly as much as I used to.

Great input Bason, your insights sure have helped me in the past, and I know others follow your word as well. A big take away from above is the part about taking your profits. Once upon a time I used to be one of the guys who would continually try to stack my bankrolls as wins cashed, only to lose it all a week or two later. Now when I have a nice day, or weekend, you better believe that money is coming back to me ASAP. After a nice winning day now, I collect majority, and leave some in for balance growth, great advice!

Good luck today on your plays.

 

[BASON]

Man, Ajax just can not get it done. Not the performance I expected from them. My BTTS game seems to be off but I am putting the other 3 in again.

 

[BASON]

Gave Salzburg too much credit. They had plenty of chances, but just could not finish, but that is what this game is all about. The great teams and players finish their chances. They finish just one of those chances, especially the open net early in the second half, and this game sails over. Not happy about that one, but sometimes it just does not go our way. Still a very profitable group stage but this one could have made it a great one.

Oh and nothing like a 4-team BTTS parlay that goes 0-4, that is how to do it!! Six to nil games in the afternoon, not sure I can say I ever saw that (now that would have been one hell of a BTTS No parlay!!).

Back to work.

 

[PittsburghKid]

I?m beating a dead horse but the champions league in the most prestigious and money making tourney and teams advancing are guaranteed 10 of millions and shaktar manager played to get eliminated then celebrated being eliminated after the final whistle? I?ve never seen anything like it . Shocking.. I could never coach a game knowing we need to win, draw being a loss and not trying to win. They never pressed inter even when keeper was 60 yards uo field and ball was in inters half... I?m at a total loss for words

 

[BASON]

They were more than happy to stay in Euro, that is why he was so happy. I am sure their plan was to make Euro from the start given the group they were in, so they did what they set out to do. They were much more afraid to lose which drove the way they played.

However, I do agree and we were talking about the same thing watching the end of the game. They should have at least taken a shot, but I think their goal from the start was to draw to gain Euro so I really was not that surprised. Everyone picked them to finish bottom of the group, so this result was a win for them.

 

[PittsburghKid]

I hear You, and understand that thought process but i cant Agree with it . It?s just not mentality. I love defense, it?s what I preach. I love Having a strong defense before anything else. But you have to try and win if a win is what?s needed , in my opinion. They may not have thought they would have a chance prior to start of group but the opportunity presented itself to advance in a very very lucrative manner for the club. And they basically said ?pass? and settled for a 2nd rate tournament . Not only would they have advanced but they would have topped the group and most like have a favorable round of 16 match to get to final 8. I jist Personally disagree with the strategy