FYI, I am not alarmed buy the drop in the Real line. I expected it to come down and played again this morning at -219.
BASON 2020-2021 Season
- Thread starter BASON
- Start date
Zidane better get his resume ready. I see no way he survives if they do not move on. They probably will but Real is a mess right now. Sorry for that one. Definitely hurt me as I also came in at the half.
Two for today:
Dortmund -153
Man U/PSG Ov 3 -137
Think these are the two best plays. I did some smaller plays via parlays with the Ov 1.5 TTs for Barca, Juve and Dortmund.
Two for today:
Dortmund -153
Man U/PSG Ov 3 -137
Think these are the two best plays. I did some smaller plays via parlays with the Ov 1.5 TTs for Barca, Juve and Dortmund.
Haaland hurt in warm ups. That drove the line down. I was too busy singing up to CBS all access to notice!
That penalty in the Dortmund game is the one thing that I hate about this sport. There is no way anyone should be giving a penalty when it is not a scoring chance. It has driven me crazy for a long time and it is the worst part of the sport in my opinion. Yes, worse than VAR. Penalties should only be awarded for real scoring chances, not when the player get fouled at the corner of the box going away from the goal. It drives me nuts and I would like to have a talk with whoever created the box. Not all fouls in the box should be penalties. Sorry for the rant, but had to let it out. Probably going to cost me a lot of money because everything else I liked is already done.
Only making one play today, but I am betting it rather big:
Bayern TT Ov 2 -171
They rested most key players in the CL over the weekend to prepare for this game. On the other hand, Leipzig had to go on the road and win a shootout, so Bayern is in a much better spot for this game. This appears to be the league game they likely win and never look back. They tend to make statements in these games so I expect a great effort from them today and really can not see anyway they do not at least score 2, but I expect 3 or more. Went back and forth how to play this game and I think this is the best bet, but I am not opposed to playing Bayern ML or Bayern -1.
Bayern TT Ov 2 -171
They rested most key players in the CL over the weekend to prepare for this game. On the other hand, Leipzig had to go on the road and win a shootout, so Bayern is in a much better spot for this game. This appears to be the league game they likely win and never look back. They tend to make statements in these games so I expect a great effort from them today and really can not see anyway they do not at least score 2, but I expect 3 or more. Went back and forth how to play this game and I think this is the best bet, but I am not opposed to playing Bayern ML or Bayern -1.
Bason, great pick. Bayern was clearly prepping for this game with the lineup they used in CL this week. Leipzig had a tough CL game and now also has to focus for Man U in CL this week. Curious where you got your line? I cant find a tt ov 2 at any of my books. Debated doing ov 2.5 and some at exactly 2 goals for BM. Thoughts?
I use Heritage for soccer. They have a huge Soccer+ page that has all leagues, and more importantly, provides multiple alternative lines for the game, totals and team totals (I use this a ton in parlays). To properly bet soccer you really need to use a very large book like Heritage or Bovada so you can have all the options. Many smaller books just offer basic soccer bets so they do not allow you to move the lines.
I am not opposed to the 2.5, but I prefer to pay for the protection just in case it lands on 2, however, I fully expect 3 goals from them today. Not a big fan of exact goal bets.
I am not opposed to the 2.5, but I prefer to pay for the protection just in case it lands on 2, however, I fully expect 3 goals from them today. Not a big fan of exact goal bets.
Thanks for all the info i appreciate it. I definitely need to add another book for soccer. I know you dont bet too much on EPL but im taking a strong look at West Ham +1/2 today against Man U. I think they are focused on Leipzig in CL next week and West Ham can grab a point at least.
- Apr 17, 2017
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BASON 2020-2021 Season
I use heritage as well (ever since 5 dimes stopped allowing US peeps). The live betting options are top notch as well. They have a great cash back program and give 8th deposit for free (if u lose all the money in your account which I did on NFL. Lol)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
I use heritage as well (ever since 5 dimes stopped allowing US peeps). The live betting options are top notch as well. They have a great cash back program and give 8th deposit for free (if u lose all the money in your account which I did on NFL. Lol)
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
If I were to bet the West Ham game, I would take them +.5. The CL hanover is very real this year. I always say that but it has been even worse this year due to the schedule and the $$ situation. Without fans and the decreased revenue, many teams are struggling and really need the extra money from CL and Euro, so they are putting more focus there than usual. I tend to stay away from the leagues after CL weeks anyway and even more so this year. Bayern is a worthwhile exception today since they played the B team in CL.
I am purposely not betting many Premier League games for now. VAR has been a disaster and it is really difficult to cap given how many of these calls have gone. I am sure I am overreacting a bit, but it has never been my specialty anyway, so this is just more of a reason for me to stay away. I still look at just about every game just to see if there is something I really like.
For now, I stay focused on the CL (and Germany) because that is where I make my living.
And yes, if you want to seriously bet soccer, I would open up another account. Johnny is right about the live betting also. I do not do a lot of it, but Kid does and is successful.
I Have been using bet365 for soccer, tons of options , and great user interface. There are some perks to 365 if your team goes up 2 goals on a money line bet they cash you early. I have a DAZN account which covers most of my stream needs, but 365 also gives live stream feeds to a ton of European leagues.
Fun game to watch and have to give Leipzig credit for taking Bayern out of their game some and not letting them dominate. Definitely picked the right bet today.
Already put in tomorrow's game as I have to stick with it until it loses:
Leverkusen TT Ov 2 -105
Leverkusen -1 -124
Schalke has been dreadful this year and particularly bad against top teams. Leverkusen is in great form so have to go with them here even after Euro. Gladbach beat them 4-1 after Euro last week and I expect a similar result tomorrow. Also, a Leverkusen win puts them second in the table.
Already put in tomorrow's game as I have to stick with it until it loses:
Leverkusen TT Ov 2 -105
Leverkusen -1 -124
Schalke has been dreadful this year and particularly bad against top teams. Leverkusen is in great form so have to go with them here even after Euro. Gladbach beat them 4-1 after Euro last week and I expect a similar result tomorrow. Also, a Leverkusen win puts them second in the table.
Schalke is the gift that keeps on giving. Nice hits today.
Some huge CL games this week. Will be digging in heavy after the NFL today.
Some huge CL games this week. Will be digging in heavy after the NFL today.
Tuesday CL
Lets take a look at the key games I looked at with the obvious focus on who moves on with a win or wins the group or even makes it to Euro. Winning the group is still a big deal for most so they get a more favorable match up. Also remember that higher seeds get first game away which is also important.
Key games:
Lazio/Brugge - Huge game for both teams. They win and they advance. Lazio could still win the group if Dortmund fails to win.
Dortmund/Zenit - Dortmund wins they win the group.
Leipzig/Man U - Massive game for Leipzig. They have to assume PSG wins (I left them out for now because I think they win and the line sucks), so they must win against a team that beat them 5-0 in Manchester.
Kiev/Feren - obviously not a big game, but for each team it is. Winner moves onto Euro which is a big deal for both of these teams so should be a strong competitive game.
Barca/Juve - only important in that Juve could technically win the group with a win by enough goals.
These last games can get very interesting and I tend to focus a lot on goals in these games as the situation can dictate how the game is played.
Lazio/Brugge Ov 2.5 -140 - I also like Lazio in this game, but I do not completely trust them, so I like the total more. Brugge has to be all in at some point and this should open up the game. Even if the game is initially tight, it has to open up at the end. I think we should get a least a 2-1 result and I expect this line to go up fast.
Dortmund -134 - Gone back and forth with this one as there is a chance they do not play that well on the road, but Zenit has nothing to play for and I have to think that winning the group remains a priority for Dortmund. They are simply the stronger side and I think they will want to keep the CL momentum going. Plus, we are getting a very fair price for the much better team.
Final play for tomorrow is a BTTS parlay that pays +331
Kiev
Leipzig
Barca
As much as I really, really want Leipzig to win, I am just not confident enough that they can. They are off a CL win last week in Turkey and then an awesome draw with Bayern so they are a bit stretched. I expect Man U to be a popular play given the first result. I do expect a big effort and goals from each team. As mentioned above, I think the Kiev game will be very competitive and expect at least a 1-1 draw. Not sure what to expect from Juve, but I actually think this game will be better than most think, which should yield goals form both sides. No matter the situation, neither of these giants want to lose to each other.
I will have more on this Wednesday game later but I had to get this in at the number offered:
Salzburg/Atletico Ov 2.5 -160
Biggest game maybe ever for Salzburg. Game was 3-2 in Spain. Looking forward to this one.
Lets take a look at the key games I looked at with the obvious focus on who moves on with a win or wins the group or even makes it to Euro. Winning the group is still a big deal for most so they get a more favorable match up. Also remember that higher seeds get first game away which is also important.
Key games:
Lazio/Brugge - Huge game for both teams. They win and they advance. Lazio could still win the group if Dortmund fails to win.
Dortmund/Zenit - Dortmund wins they win the group.
Leipzig/Man U - Massive game for Leipzig. They have to assume PSG wins (I left them out for now because I think they win and the line sucks), so they must win against a team that beat them 5-0 in Manchester.
Kiev/Feren - obviously not a big game, but for each team it is. Winner moves onto Euro which is a big deal for both of these teams so should be a strong competitive game.
Barca/Juve - only important in that Juve could technically win the group with a win by enough goals.
These last games can get very interesting and I tend to focus a lot on goals in these games as the situation can dictate how the game is played.
Lazio/Brugge Ov 2.5 -140 - I also like Lazio in this game, but I do not completely trust them, so I like the total more. Brugge has to be all in at some point and this should open up the game. Even if the game is initially tight, it has to open up at the end. I think we should get a least a 2-1 result and I expect this line to go up fast.
Dortmund -134 - Gone back and forth with this one as there is a chance they do not play that well on the road, but Zenit has nothing to play for and I have to think that winning the group remains a priority for Dortmund. They are simply the stronger side and I think they will want to keep the CL momentum going. Plus, we are getting a very fair price for the much better team.
Final play for tomorrow is a BTTS parlay that pays +331
Kiev
Leipzig
Barca
As much as I really, really want Leipzig to win, I am just not confident enough that they can. They are off a CL win last week in Turkey and then an awesome draw with Bayern so they are a bit stretched. I expect Man U to be a popular play given the first result. I do expect a big effort and goals from each team. As mentioned above, I think the Kiev game will be very competitive and expect at least a 1-1 draw. Not sure what to expect from Juve, but I actually think this game will be better than most think, which should yield goals form both sides. No matter the situation, neither of these giants want to lose to each other.
I will have more on this Wednesday game later but I had to get this in at the number offered:
Salzburg/Atletico Ov 2.5 -160
Biggest game maybe ever for Salzburg. Game was 3-2 in Spain. Looking forward to this one.
