BASON's EURO 2021

[BASON]

Starting a new thread just for Euro. Finally about to get here. I love this tournament even more so than the World Cup. Should be a great tournament as I really do not think there is a clear cut favorite. England may be the odds on favorite but there is no way in hell I would ever bet on them.

I am slowly getting back into the swing of things and will have some random thoughts, etc. up over the next couple days. I am not a big futures better so I will probably have only one or two of those plays, but happy to discuss any others are considering. Should be here on a daily basis so feel free to chime in.

 

[BASON]

Going over the groups and there is not much value in the group winners or to advance lines but I did put this one in today:

Belgium -120 Group Winner

There is a lot of value in this line for me. You are getting a strong price because they have to play Russia in St. Petersburg and Denmark in Copenhagen, but Belgium is easily the best team in this group and I will gladly take them at this price. They are -138 against Russia and I think if they win that game they win the group because I do not see them losing to Denmark. If they draw them, then the winner could come down to goal differential but I like Belgium to beat Russia and Finland by more goals than Denmark can. The winner of this group gets a 3rd place team so that adds another advantage.

 

[BASON]

I have decided not to play any other futures. It is really not my thing anyway and I prefer to just play the games. I was considering a Spain to the semi-finals bet, but if the seedings hold, they will likely play England to get there so I think you will get a similar price as England always brings in the money. If I had to bet a team to win it would be Spain +750. They are not getting much attention and they have a very strong team. I also like their draw since I am not an England fan.

 

[Crookity]

I have decided not to play any other futures. It is really not my thing anyway and I prefer to just play the games. I was considering a Spain to the semi-finals bet, but if the seedings hold, they will likely play England to get there so I think you will get a similar price as England always brings in the money. If I had to bet a team to win it would be Spain +750. They are not getting much attention and they have a very strong team. I also like their draw since I am not an England fan.

Corona is becoming a concern for Spain. They have a 17 man B squad ready to fill in should covid cases mount. Busquests tested positive a few days ago, and they just got their second confirmed case today!

 

[BASON]

Yeah, I read about in the European papers. They have been isolating. Definitely a bigger concern if it spreads further, but hopefully they contain it.

 

[BASON]

Friday

Turkey vs Italy

Lots of talk about both these teams coming in. I think a little too much on both ends. I am not going to get into a long discussion of each team because, for me, capping this game is simple. Yes, Turkey has a good young team that has some impressive recent results, but, and this is a big BUT, they are not battle tested and now they kick off the championships in Rome against Italy. If this game was in Istanbul I would feel differently. I do not see them being very aggressive. Italy is as good offensively as they have been in may years. Turkey will hunker down and do their best to keep this a 0-0 game for as long as they can. In the end, I think Italy is just too much and we see a 1 or 2 to nil victory.

Italy -189
Italy to win to nil +111
Immobile anytime scorer +140

I know -189 is tough for some to play, but I just do not see Italy losing this game so I will lay the lumber. I will also use it to open a parlay to include one or two games from Saturday.

BTTS No is a whopping -187 and the Turkey Un .5 is -135, so the Win to Nil at +111 offers tremendous value if you do not believe Turkey will score (in my younger days I would have backed this up with a 0-0 correct score bet, but I am much less aggressive in my old age)

Immobile is Italy's top scorer so I will take my shot with him getting one.

I take it easy in the first couple games, because we really do not know exactly what to expect from many teams and this is especially true this year given all that has happened. I prefer to see a couple games before I make any larger plays. All the plays I list are the actual lines I played them at mostly at Heritage.

I wish you all well and feel free to chime in!!

 

[Crookity]

Friday

Turkey vs Italy

Lots of talk about both these teams coming in. I think a little too much on both ends. I am not going to get into a long discussion of each team because, for me, capping this game is simple. Yes, Turkey has a good young team that has some impressive recent results, but, and this is a big BUT, they are not battle tested and now they kick off the championships in Rome against Italy. If this game was in Istanbul I would feel differently. I do not see them being very aggressive. Italy is as good offensively as they have been in may years. Turkey will hunker down and do their best to keep this a 0-0 game for as long as they can. In the end, I think Italy is just too much and we see a 1 or 2 to nil victory.

Italy -189
Italy to win to nil +111
Immobile anytime scorer +140

I know -189 is tough for some to play, but I just do not see Italy losing this game so I will lay the lumber. I will also use it to open a parlay to include one or two games from Saturday.

BTTS No is a whopping -187 and the Turkey Un .5 is -135, so the Win to Nil at +111 offers tremendous value if you do not believe Turkey will score (in my younger days I would have backed this up with a 0-0 correct score bet, but I am much less aggressive in my old age)

Immobile is Italy's top scorer so I will take my shot with him getting one.

I take it easy in the first couple games, because we really do not know exactly what to expect from many teams and this is especially true this year given all that has happened. I prefer to see a couple games before I make any larger plays. All the plays I list are the actual lines I played them at mostly at Heritage.

I wish you all well and feel free to chime in!!

VIVA ITALIA BABY :0074

 

[Crookity]

Friday

Turkey vs Italy

Lots of talk about both these teams coming in. I think a little too much on both ends. I am not going to get into a long discussion of each team because, for me, capping this game is simple. Yes, Turkey has a good young team that has some impressive recent results, but, and this is a big BUT, they are not battle tested and now they kick off the championships in Rome against Italy. If this game was in Istanbul I would feel differently. I do not see them being very aggressive. Italy is as good offensively as they have been in may years. Turkey will hunker down and do their best to keep this a 0-0 game for as long as they can. In the end, I think Italy is just too much and we see a 1 or 2 to nil victory.

Italy -189
Italy to win to nil +111
Immobile anytime scorer +140

I know -189 is tough for some to play, but I just do not see Italy losing this game so I will lay the lumber. I will also use it to open a parlay to include one or two games from Saturday.

BTTS No is a whopping -187 and the Turkey Un .5 is -135, so the Win to Nil at +111 offers tremendous value if you do not believe Turkey will score (in my younger days I would have backed this up with a 0-0 correct score bet, but I am much less aggressive in my old age)

Immobile is Italy's top scorer so I will take my shot with him getting one.

I take it easy in the first couple games, because we really do not know exactly what to expect from many teams and this is especially true this year given all that has happened. I prefer to see a couple games before I make any larger plays. All the plays I list are the actual lines I played them at mostly at Heritage.

I wish you all well and feel free to chime in!!

Based on the line moves with Italy up to -200, the btts line the over /under etc you are making sense.:0003

 

[BASON]

I am 100% Italian, so I definitely cheer them on!

I got the odds I wanted so this just went in:

Italy/Denmark/Belgium +299

Got 3-1 so not waiting. I expect a lot of overnight movement and I am expecting it to move to favorites, but you never know. When I get what I want I just bet it and do not worry about movement. I do this to spread out some of the Italy exposure. Plus, I think there is value in the Belgium line at -135. They would be well over -200 if this game were not in Russia. If Italy wins, I will likely bet the Belgium ML right away if it is still in the -135 range.

 

[johnnyb]

Immobile!


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[Crookity]

Based on the line moves with Italy up to -200, the btts line the over /under etc you are making sense.:0003

Nice work sir notching that Immobile.to score prop, well done. Looks like much of MJ has profited on this game.

 

[BASON]

Thanks gentlemen. That is a great way to start the tournament.

Belgium line has been dropping but I am sticking to my guns with this one:

Belgium -115

I get that they are on the road, but they are the better team and I think they win this game. Too much talent and experience.

I also just put this in:

Swiss Pk/Belgium Pk/England/N. Macedonia +1.5/Ukraine +1.5 +585

I am going to see how the lines move overnight before I play anything else. I may end up laying the lumber with Denmark as I just do not think Finland is very good, but I already have them in the par with Belgium so that my be enough. Will finalize in the morning.

 

[Crookity]

Thanks gentlemen. That is a great way to start the tournament.

Belgium line has been dropping but I am sticking to my guns with this one:

Belgium -115

I get that they are on the road, but they are the better team and I think they win this game. Too much talent and experience.

I also just put this in:

Swiss Pk/Belgium Pk/England/N. Macedonia +1.5/Ukraine +1.5 +585

I am going to see how the lines move overnight before I play anything else. I may end up laying the lumber with Denmark as I just do not think Finland is very good, but I already have them in the par with Belgium so that my be enough. Will finalize in the morning.

I'm following you and Kid and dropping the hammer on Denmark tomorrow. Even our resident Finish rep Snafu doesn't sound very bullish on his squad. I like the Danes to pump a few tmrw.

 

[PittsburghKid]

I think finland sucks.


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[BASON]

I keep trying to talk myself out of it, but I am not there yet. It is hard to find a reason not to like them tomorrow. Little easier to lay the lumber given the Italy win. They are usually not a team I would do that with, but I do not like their opponent. I think Snafu is definitely right and he knows that team. I do not think Finland will score so I may add the Win to Nil bet also. Trying not to get carried away too early.

 

[BASON]

I think finland sucks.


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I was trying to be nice!!

 

[PittsburghKid]

I was trying to be nice!!

[emoji23][emoji23] they?re finnished


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[Snafu]

I think finland sucks.


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:mj07:

but in the other hand we still beat USA in soccer as easily as in hockey :toast:

 

[BASON]

Wanted to watch the FH and it is going exactly like I thought. This Swiss team is solid they just do not have the fire power up front but it is very difficult to sit back and play defense for 90 minutes against a good team as we saw yesterday.

Swiss -103 SH

Denmark line has gone through the roof. Happy I played it before I went to bed but I will not post that line since it is not even close to where it is now. I would now play them -1.

 

[BASON]

Swiss got exactly what they deserved in this game and this is precisely why I do not like the way they play. They dominate the whole game, score a goal and then change the way they play. You could see the Wales goal coming. You can not score and then just let the other team in the game. Horrendous coaching in my opinion. This happens all the time and it is something I will never understand.