BASON's EURO 2021

[BASON]

Germany lets me down once again. I can not wait for Low to leave. He simply can not start the right team. He has to start a team with more speed. I thought they would play better, but I knew this would be a tough one to cap.

Added:

Italy/Russia +175

I like Russia tomorrow. They lost 3-0 and now get Finland, who has to still be a little drained from the Denmark game, at home in a must win game for them.

I think we see some good games tomorrow given the situation. I may be going against the grain on this one but I put it in:

Turkey/Wales Ov 2 -110

I think Turkey will be aggressive in this game and they can score. I also think Wales will get some good counter opportunities. We should see at least 2 goals in this game.

Italy has been slowly dropping so I will probably add more in the morning or late tonight.

 

[BASON]

I added a little to Italy at -137. Just a tad since I have a lot of parlay exposure to them also. I also added:

Italy Pk/Belgium Pk/Sweden Pk/Dutch TT Ov 1.5 +286

Been hitting a lot of these type of parlays.

The Italy line keeps coming down so I will take some more. Have to believe people are playing the draw. Its certainly possible, but Italy is motivated to win this game. Top teams want to win the first two and then rest a few players in the last game.

I can always hedge down a little of my exposure at the half if its 0-0, but I still think Italy is the better team and will win this game.

 

[BASON]

Italy game went exactly as I expected so I hit some very nice bets with this one (late goal gave me a great Italy -2 win). Great day!!

Usually, I would be all over Belgium tomorrow. I am using them in a Pk in some parlays, but I am laying off playing them straight. I have no idea what to expect from Denmark. I usually would expect them to come out and play great, but I tend to overestimate the determination of a lot of European teams. Denmark is at home and should stand on their heads and play great for Erikson, but they could play the game of their lives and still lose or just be flat. Facts are they lost their best player and do not have a true number 9. They also do not have a great history against Belgium. There is a lot of value in Belgium +105, but I will at least watch the first half to see how Denmark plays. Enough opportunities to come, so not making an uncertain play here for me.


Ukraine Ov 2/Dutch Ov 2 +116

I have some bankroll so I am playing this larger than playing them separate at higher lines. Will be very surprised if there are not at least 2 goals in each of these games. I am also using Macedonia Ov .5 and Dutch TT Ov 1.5 in parlays.

Moving lines in parlays is working well for me so I will keep on doing it until it doesn't.

 

[Crookity]

Italy game went exactly as I expected so I hit some very nice bets with this one (late goal gave me a great Italy -2 win). Great day!!

Usually, I would be all over Belgium tomorrow. I am using them in a Pk in some parlays, but I am laying off playing them straight. I have no idea what to expect from Denmark. I usually would expect them to come out and play great, but I tend to overestimate the determination of a lot of European teams. Denmark is at home and should stand on their heads and play great for Erikson, but they could play the game of their lives and still lose or just be flat. Facts are they lost their best player and do not have a true number 9. They also do not have a great history against Belgium. There is a lot of value in Belgium +105, but I will at least watch the first half to see how Denmark plays. Enough opportunities to come, so not making an uncertain play here for me.


Ukraine Ov 2/Dutch Ov 2 +116

I have some bankroll so I am playing this larger than playing them separate at higher lines. Will be very surprised if there are not at least 2 goals in each of these games. I am also using Macedonia Ov .5 and Dutch TT Ov 1.5 in parlays.

Moving lines in parlays is working well for me so I will keep on doing it until it doesn't.

Ukraine Over :0074

 

[BASON]

I like it Crook! I think there will be 3 in the game.

 

[BASON]

As much as I am not a fan of Switzerland, I am tempted to unload on them -130 against Turkey. Turkey has looked horrible in this tournament. With a -5 GD they are done while this is a must win game for the Swiss. Turkey will get sloppy being overaggressive or just give up, either bodes well for the Swiss. I will be looking to for a reason not to bet this!!

 

[BASON]

Could have been better but was a great day for me and for the set up tomorrow.

I already have Sweden in a Pk +286 per the parlay above so there is no reason at all to add any exposure to this game.

Nothing else really stands out to me so I played this:

Czech Pk/England -1 +287

I am not a fan of this Croatia team, and as much as I do not like England, they should beat Scotland.

No need to press plays when things are going well. Nothing wrong with building the bankroll and waiting for better opportunities.

 

[BASON]

Made a small play on the Ov 2 in the Croatia game.

 

[tt boy]

Croatia ties it up on 47' 1-1 so surely there'll be 1 more :scared

 

[BASON]

No such luck. On a little push run, but it is not a loss.

I am using England in parlays but not playing the game straight. I really think England, France and Spain win so doing some combos with them.

I will be on France for sure tomorrow and still deciding what to do in the Germany game.

 

[BASON]

I just put this in because the line is already get hit hard:

France -1 -175

I will probably bet the -2 also.

 

[BASON]

And yet another piss poor performance from the most overrated team in the world. Laughable that this team was the odds on favorite to win this. Can not wait til they play a good team to bet against them. This team has no idea what they are doing and Southgate trots out the same team and they run the same plays that did not work in the first game. They desperately need a playmaker which is why Kane is invisible. This is why I do not bet real money on them.

Already on France and I am going back to the well with the same Germany bet:

Germany BTTS -125

Germany has to be more aggressive in this game and they usually play well against Portugal. I am convinced Portugal will score and I think Germany gets one here.

Spain -1 -160

I just do not see Spain missing all those chances for 2 games in a row. Busquets being back should give them a boost even if he doesn't start so I am expecting a much better game from them.

 

[BASON]

That one hurt as it wiped out all my parlays. Just an uninspired performance by France. Another -300+ favorite that did not show.

I added to Germany BTTS. Need to hit this one. If Germany can win this game that group gets even more interesting.

I have already played Switzerland -135 tomorrow and will watch the line and add accordingly.

I also put in a Spain/Swiss/Italy parlay.

 

[Crookity]

That one hurt as it wiped out all my parlays. Just an uninspired performance by France. Another -300+ favorite that did not show.

I added to Germany BTTS. Need to hit this one. If Germany can win this game that group gets even more interesting.

I have already played Switzerland -135 tomorrow and will watch the line and add accordingly.

I also put in a Spain/Swiss/Italy parlay.

The house has raked the last 2 days with England and France burning parlay tickets around the world.

 

[BASON]

Germany game ended up being big and an easy BTTS win.

Already looking forward to Wednesday. I expect Germany to stick it to Hungary.

 

[BASON]

I know some of the square plays have disappointed, but I am on Switzerland and Italy today.

I am not a fan of this Swiss team, but I think Turkey is done and will not play so great today. Once they go all out and give up a goal , I expect them to quit. Italy has been the best team of the tournament so far and I expect them to keep doing their thing. They are not going to want to lose this momentum so I expect them to play well again today. Wales will likely just play for the draw, but I do not think they can do that for 90 minutes against Italy. Their offense has just been too good.

 

[BASON]

Okay, here is the square play of the tournament:

Austria/Ukraine Draw +105

Yes, that is right, the line is only +105 and I would not be surprised to see it at minus money tomorrow (the FH draw is -143!!). This is your classic draw situation. Neither team can finish first and both will advance with a draw. We could actually see a scenario where all 4 third place teams have 4 points, so both teams likely have no chance to advance with 3 points.

Anything can happen and I have seen this not happen before, but both of these teams would be stupid not to play for a draw in this game. I know Austria will. Ukraine could be a wild card. I could see them trying to score early but I doubt they do that for the whole game.

We still get better than even odds for a result that greatly benefits both teams. I think you have to bet it.

 

[tt boy]

Nice job today B :0074

 

[BASON]

Thanks TT, made some $$ today. Swiss were my biggest play to date.

 

[BASON]

Not much else I love today. I used Belgium and the Dutch is a couple parlays but I am not playing them straight. Better to save the bulk of the bankroll after group play when I think there will be some great situations.

I also put this parlay in for fun:

Ukraine Un 2.5/Croatia Un 3/England Un 3/Sweden Un 3/France Un 3.5 +423

I do not see anything worth real money the next couple days. You are going to see some tight games based on situations so I definitely think we see some low scoring games. I will probably be on the France/Portugal Under straight but want to see what happens today. A good chance that Portugal can still get in with a 1 or even 2 to nil loss, so I doubt you will see them be very aggressive. Todays games will go a long way to see if a 3 point team can get in, but it looks like there will only be one at best. The results today and tomorrow could make Wednesday even more interesting.