I agree 5 million percent with matt.
Hard to take the chalk at those prices, but I think I found a way to play it.
BREAKDOWN:
Luevano has done a ton with what he has. All credit to him, and I love him for beating Billy Dib's ass (one of the biggest pricks in the sport). But Stevie is in over his head this weekend.
Despite his life and death struggle with Mtagwa, I came away MORE impressed with Juan Ma last year. He showed incredible heart and skill in a fight where Mtagwa fought OUT OF HIS MIND. A fighter can learn a lot the first time he is pushed to the brink. I expect to see a refreshed, re-invigorated Juan Ma come in healthy at 126 and smash Luevano HARD.
Gamboa fight comes down to speed and size. Gamboa, at his best, is spectacular. I lost a ton of money betting on Juan Ma ITD against the terminator Mtagwa. But I am gonna get it all back here. I can't imagine that performance can be reproduced. Mtagwa will fight till the end, but if Villa can rock him, Gamboa surely can. Mtagwa is too small and too hittable. The Cuban ITD mid rounds.
Remember, Top Rank wants to put Gamboa in against Lopez next time. They want both these guys to look spectacular, and I think thats what they are going to get. Arum usually gets these "building toward a PPV" fights right.
BET:
The risk here is that Gamboa doesn't get Rogers out of there and starts to fuck around (he has done this more than once). But I think he realizes the importance of this bout - this sets up his entire future. The price is steep, not only on the fight, but on the ITD prop. I am gonna play it like this:
MY ONE PLAY:
PARLAY
Juan Ma Lopez STRAIGHT
to
Gamboa ITD prop
I also have a few tennis parlays going (thanks Brain) with Gamboa and Juan Ma attached. They both win STRAIGHT and its a good weekend for me.
Good luck crew.
:toast:
