I don't have a solid opinion on this fight; usually when I start to break it all down the picture seems to get a little clearer.
I think Kramden has a good grasp on it. If Valuev can take Haye's big shots early in the fight he has a chance of wearing Haye down, if only because being in the ring with a man this huge can be tiring.
If Haye gets tired, maybe Valuev can catch him with a right hand late in the fight. Holyfield did a lot of moving, and did it very well, but there was a reason why he didn't want to stand right in front of Valuev. Evander certainly didn't want to let Valuev hit him.
I'm not sure if Haye can be as elusive as Evander was that night, not for the whole 12 rounds. I'm leaning a little towards Valuev, late-round stoppage. As Kramden says, Monte Barrett was bouncing right hands off of Valuev's head, and Haye could do the same, but David will have to be careful not to punch himself out.
Interesting fight.