Weekend Plays
Weekend Plays
All right, last BIG night of the year!!
Denis Lebedev (+110) - BIG
I'm high on Lebedev, and I think he takes advantage of his big shot. Huck has looked very good lately, but against lesser guys than Lebedev. I see a very good action packed fight, with Lebedev wearing him down late.
Ali Ismailov (+750) - medium
Big upset spot here! Ali is a very good fighter. I thought he beat Ramirez in Argentina. Even in his fight with Leb (youtube), it was very competitive until Ali got cut. Yoan has been fighting much better lately, but that chin is extra suspect. Ali not a huge puncher though, and he won't outbox Yoan, so finding a method to victory could be tough. Still, at huge odds I'm taking Ali. It's 12, and I think Ali can tire and KO the Cuban.
Solis-Lazarte OVER 9.5 (+120) - medium well
Got nice early odds here, and the line has moved a lot. Both guys prone to distance fights. This one looks very good on paper, but I am concerned about cuts, or even potential DQ scenario with Lazarte in Argentina.
Ulises Solis (-150) - small
Solis, again on paper, looks like the superior fighter. Location and Lazarte's tendency to make it very ugly keeps this wager in check for me.
Bernard Hopkins (+220) - small
Someone has to go on Hopkins! I'm a little surprised by all the Hopkins hatin' here. Sounds like I'll take some heat for this, but I like him, always have. He may be fading just a bit, but he's just such an old school technician. So difficult to beat and near impossible to look good against. He's also a master at exposing his opponents weakness. I agree with most everything you guys said, and Hopkins finding a method to victory could be tough. He won't KO Pascal, and I'm not sure he's active enough to win a decision. Still, in terms of wagering against him, the old pro scares the shit out of me. He's just defied the odds (Trinidad, Tarver, Pavlik) too many times to count out. Pascal brings a lot of intensity, but I still see something raw about him. If anyone can expose that it's Hopkins. I also think Pascal may have rushed this, and could possibly be a bit tired in finishing a very active stretch. Pascal by dec. is probably the likely scenario, but it will not be easy at all. I'll take a small shot on Hopkins and enjoy this one.
Good luck guys!!!!