Boxing 5/14 - 5/15

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Fightwriter

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It al depemds

It al depemds

Oddessa said:
Maybe I am reading SAFEGUARD too literally.

With all due respect... you would have to be a moron to do such a thing.

It's a bookmakers dream.

Anyone that bets draw as safeguard deseves to lose their money.

Look at it this way. Why pay insurance on a potential blackjack that pays +150 , before the hand is even dealt. That's what your doing. I can see maybe an in progress draw bet but before the bout even starts?

You either pass on betting fight all together or you bet the draw because you think the draw can win. Not to insure you dont get the short end of the stick.

The bout didnt cost me anything, but shame on me if I am going to deal something that consistently shows a level incompetence on the part of the judges that is not already factored into the number.

How many draws and bad decisions took place in the UK on Fridays in 2010 that left people scratching their heads. Sure it happens all over the world, but why not be disciplined and just pass on betting the bout all together. It was overpriced from the get go.

LESSON: In the end its not always about the good deals you make, but rather the bad deals you dont make. Apply that to betting and you will see passing on a fight is sometimes the smartest wager on the board.
Click to expand...

I guess it depends how badly a player wants to bet on a fight, Joey, especially if a Brit/Euro book is his only option. The draw rule is a bookie's dream, yes, and is a hassle for players, but it is not insurmountable.

Say a player wants to bet on a fighter at -120 and feels solid about his pick. He puts down $120 to win $100 and throws $5 on the draw at +2500. If his side wins, he wins $95 instead of the $100 he would have won at a U.S.-rules book. If he loses he loses $125 instead of losing $120. If the draw hits, he wins $5. (I think I've done the math right.) It all depends on the odds and how strongly a player feels about his wager.

Your "lesson" is a very good one for players to bear in mind. As my Las Vegas pal Arne Lang always says: "Sometimes your best bet is the one you don't make."
 
Ghost Kid

Ghost Kid

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My main issue was with the Dave Parris scorecard.
Sexton did quite well after the headclash, MAYBE enough to land a draw.

But 8 rounds for Sexton is stretching it - and I was on Sexton.
 
Ghost Kid

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Weign In Video for Wlod-Frag

Weign In Video for Wlod-Frag

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Oddessa

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Not to split hairs but we're not talking about
a -120 bout. If we were the draw priced a 25-1 would likely be mathmatically incorrect anyways as the bouts a near pickem.

This bout opned -325 and closed -500.

But I'd send limos for people to bet into the 3 way 30 cent line in the UK. Add in headbutts a KO and not a TECH DRAW and I'd throw in 2 boxes of condoms and call girl.. to make the house advatage/robbery look more appealing to the player. :SIB

stripper%20with%20gun.jpg
 
Ghost Kid

Ghost Kid

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ESPN2
Friday Night Fight
Njoudjo vs. Diaz
DRAW
+2500

I'm in
:mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07: :mj07:

hopefully I can get me a limo, some rubbers, and 3 chicks at the same time
 
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Oddessa

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DAVE PARRIS

DAVE PARRIS

Had some time to kill. Notice the highlighted bouts of 2010. He is obviously watching something the other judges are not on several occassions and by more than few rounds...


05_14_1021_53_48MaxthonShot.jpg


05_14_1021_54_21MaxthonShot.jpg
 
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Oddessa

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Anyways...good repectfull chat.

Enjoy the fights and a probly good closely matched bout on paper bout to bet draw in.

10 rds at 25-1 odds with tech draw b4 end of 3 going for you in stae of Nevada.

Good luck.
 
Ghost Kid

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Oddessa said:
Anyways...good repectfull chat.

Enjoy the fights and a probly good closely matched bout on paper bout to bet draw in.

10 rds at 25-1 odds with tech draw b4 end of 3 going for you in stae of Nevada.

Good luck.
Click to expand...

:toast: :toast: :toast: :toast: :toast:

Also very interested to hear Teddy Atlas' take on Kermit the Frog....I heard from a little bird this week that Teddy has a strong opinion on it....
 
Ghost Kid

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Dirrell in studio with Brian Kenny....HE PICKED PAULIE OVER AMIR !!!!!

:scared :scared :scared :scared :scared

Dirrell really hates Brits...I wonder why.....
:142smilie :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie :142smilie
 
C

CrazyHorses

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Oddessa said:
Had some time to kill. Notice the highlighted bouts of 2010. He is obviously watching something the other judges are not on several occassions and by more than few rounds...
Click to expand...



I think looking at the data from any judge with a significant number of bouts will show the same sort of result. If that's what we're looking for...
 
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weepaul

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Put some money on Diaz.

The odds went up to +155.

Diaz might be shot but if not, I think he has the type of style to bother Herman.

Good luck boys!!! :toast:
 
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CrazyHorses

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Looking at that graph again, it looks Parris is well within range of the other 2 judges. On all fights except 2 - Ukeh and Bayeer. Not bad, and certainly not anything that would point to the allusion.

Just friendly chat as you say, but I don't see it.
 
gardenweasel

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
ngoudjo 2 steps slow and doesn`t have the pop to turn the tide....

maybe he`s the more worn fighter...he looks very slow...particularly of foot...
 
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Oddessa

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In the14 bouts that went to decision that were scored by PARRIS in 2010, 28% of the time he had the opposite fighter winning than the judges he worked with. If you look at the venues you will see he scored wider in favor of the home town fighter. If you count the draw its 35%.

If that not significant after him finding 8 rounds to give to Sexton today, then I give up.

I'll be on twitter.
 
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punchmaster

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gardenweasel said:
ngoudjo 2 steps slow and doesn`t have the pop to turn the tide....

maybe he`s the more worn fighter...he looks very slow...particularly of foot...
Click to expand...

very unaccurate with his punches also.. very unimpressive because Diaz is clearly no world beater in there, not much of a boxing brain for Ngoudjo
 
gardenweasel

gardenweasel

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"the bunker"
86-85?.......i think teddy was getting a drink of water and the toilet seat fell down and hit him in the back of the head....

this is a blowout...
 
Ghost Kid

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weepaul said:
Yeee Haawwwwww!!!!! :00hour
Click to expand...

nice hit Paulie
smart to make the play after all the Ngoudjo money came in

My picks will be up in a bit....but just to let you and GW know....I am joining the party....
 
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