Boxing 5/29 - 5/30

[Ghost Kid]

NJ, at least one of us will be right my brother!

I could probably list 20 reasons I am picking Angulo tonight, but here are 10.

1. Fight is at 154. Angulo's weight class. Cintron has had one fight at 54, and he got his ass whipped.

2. Angulo's chin is under-rated. That was a perfect left hook from Guttierrez. Angulo was definitely buzzed, but I loved the way he responded. He gathered himself quickly, and smashed Guttierrez. I have never heard any rumors of Angulo having chin problems in the gym. These things tend to leak out if they exist.

3. Cintron's power is over-rated. He has knocked out cans and bums. Suarez. Bum. Feliciano (who he struggled MIGHTILY with). Club fighter. Mattysse. Complete stiff. KO'ed by every other guy he has fought.

4. Cintron can't take body shots. He is a TERRIBLE in-fighter. Feliciano was giving him fits, simply by staying on top of him. And Feliciano can't punch at all. Angulo can punch, and fights very well in a phone booth.

5. Cintron needs room to punch. Angulo backs all his opponents up, from round 1. No space. If Cintron is going to KO Angulo, he is going to have to do it moving backwards. Cause we all know he ain't going to stand in the pocket with Angulo. He backed up against Margarito. He backed up against Martinez. He is going to be running around the ring tonight.

6. Angulo is a bigger, better version of Margarito. This is a physical problem for Kermie, as well as a mental one. He is going to be having Mexican flashbacks all over again.

7. Cintron knows how to lose. Angulo doesn't. Keeping that zero. Huge motivation for a young prospect.

8. Cintron has more pro experience, but "boxing" experience overall probably goes to Angulo. Cintron came to the game late (from wrestling). Angulo has grown up in the gyms, sparring hours and hours with champions in California. He has gone a lot of rounds with Kirkland, and by the accounts on ringtv.com (Fischer's Friday mailbag), the sparring sessions were dead even. I don't even want to think about what Kirkland would do to Kermit Cintron.

9. Heart. One guy has a huge one, the other guy has none. Everyone is so enamored with Cintron's rematch performance against Margarito. The bottom line is, the dude got destroyed. Both times. The fights weren't even close. He cried against Margarito. He cried against Feliciano. He cried against Martinez. The dude can't take the heat. Boxing is a rough rough way to make a living. Kermit has proven, more than a few times now, that he doesn't like being hit. Wrong business to be in.

10. The line movement. Angulo opened at minus 185 for this fight. The line, within an hour, moved to 285. Then 350. Usually, when a line moves one way early, and never comes back, that fighter wins. Not all the time - but usually. When the odds came out last year for JMM and Casamayor, they were almost even. Within an hour, JMM had been bet to minus 200. Then 300. Then 400. The money was correct.

I have been wrong many times before. There are far better, more experienced cappers than me on this site. But I would be shocked, ABSOLUTELY SHOCKED if Cintron beat Angulo. Cintron is fighting a bigger, stronger, harder hitting version of a guy who DESTROYED him twice. One he starts getting hit tonight, I don't think it will take long for him to bow out. I'm gonna say body shot KO, between rounds 4 and 7.

All in on EL PERRO ! This is why they call it gambling ! We'll see how accurate I am in about 8 hours !

Good luck all.
:toast:

 

[nj]

One of us will win big tonight, that's good news indeed friend

This is my last big bet for a while, I have $500 on Cintron. I'm not cut out for the emotional ups and downs of betting, so it's down to $25-$100 bets for a while after tonight, win or lose.

All of your reasons are legitimate. I too like Angulo, but if there was a fight for Cintron to re-claim any legitimacy, where he can catch a plodding and hittable opponent, it's tonight.

Angulo's chin is the big question mark. If he walks through Cintron's bombs, Cintron has NO chance. But that's a big if.

Cintron is a very well-built 147, and he didn't land anything significant against Martinez, so his power at 154 is unknown. I think his power vs Margo was awesome, I was in shock at how Margo's head bounced around with such force yet he walked through it, his chin truly was superhuman at one time. Angulo's FEET are slow, which I think is the key factor in this fight, Cintron has time to step back and plant his own feet before firing. Against Martinez, he was constantly on the move and could not throw his weight into punches.

If Cintron pumps out his jab regularly and doesn't backpedal the entire fight, rather jabs Angulo on his way in then plants and throws a right hand bomb behind a blinding jab, he can stop this bout quickly. He would have to do so before 6 I think, at which point mental fatigue and bodywork would render him ineffective.

So I like Cintron in rounds 1-6. He fought gamely against Margo 2, who knows if Margo loaded his gloves. All of Margo's shots were legitimate, and Angulo is not a 1-punch KO guy, he's cumulative as well. If he took 6 rounds against bricks, he should be able to take 8 against Angulo. In those 8 rounds if he can land like he did against Margo, there's a very good chance Angulo won't come back.


Anyway, you're 100% right about Cintron's mental strength, and I expect him to lose. But whenever someone has legitimate punching power and is facing a stationary target with limited counter-punching, he stands a puncher's chance. And I think he has the talent and boxing skills to go 5 or 6 rounds with solid mental focus. If it goes past 6, it's game over really. Cintron before 6 is a real possibility at +300.

Good luck... on the Berto fight

 

[nj]

Also I played the straight line instead of the KO line in case it goes to the scorecards early. Angulo had a bad cut in his last fight, and in this fight they figure to trade in the pocket at times. A clash of heads resulting in a cut and TD isn't out of the question.

 

[crow]

I have Angulo huge.

People forget but he was an Olympian with good fundamentals.
One nice thing about him is he punches straight (contrary to Margarito and Cintron).

I didn't like Kermit's body attitude & reaction when he got dropped by a legit punch in rd 8 vs Martinez. He looked completely desinterested also.

I also question his choice of oponnents; why rematch Margarito when he got completely outclassed the first time ??

I think Cintron's going nowhere, and barring a cut i don't see him imposing himself on the bigger man.

The Berto fight is a hard one to bet; i can see him doing his usual macho stuff and getting plastered by Urango; i can also see him hurting Urango in between his roundhouses and koing him.
No bets from me on this one.

 

[Ghost Kid]

these were tough to track down for some reason....fightnews, surprisingly had nothing on the weigh-in photos....

 

[nj]

Prediction: Urango makes at least 1 porn movie in his lifetime.

With an upper body like that, he must have pencil legs to make 147.

 

[tonymontana]

Urango looks like a big bad mf.
But looks dont win fights.
Berto has great speed and ofensive but he is no defense wizard.
Little tv bet on urango inside at 440.


Ghost these kind of bets get you in dark holes you should have at least bet a little on the under (chance of double win and a little security against Cintron)

Cintron is a gifted athlet he has a fighters body and he can punch at 154. there is a reason martinez fought like he fought. He is also a mental midget but is still dangerous.
Angulo should take him out but at these odds Angulo straight is nuts imo.

bet365 has Cintron inside the first 3 at 1400 thats at least an option to prevent disaster.
I take a little of that btw.
cintron is dangerous in the first rounds against anybody, it is that simple.

Anyway good luck and hopefully angulo will give Cintron the well deserved beating.

 

[tonymontana]

look at the right hand of Urango. bare knuckle fighting anyone ?

 

[Ghost Kid]

to NJ: good analysis. well stated. I think we both made a pretty good argument. Someone will be wrong...and someone will be right !

to CROW: STRAIGHT punches from Angulo. A VERY important point. The straight shots and the hooks to the body. I'm telling you. you are correct.

to TONY: I should clarify my bet by saying that I have been adding to Angulo over the month. So my bet is not at the ridiculous price Angulo is at now. I have a solid number. All added up, I have Angulo for about -220.

But I appreciate you pointing out the props. Cintron rounds 1-6 is a good hedge for a little insurance. Thanks for the heads up ! I'm a stubborn bastard, so for the most part, I will be sticking with my play. But a mini hedge, no matter what, is a smart play.
:toast:

 

[THE_THONG]

GO DOG GO

PERRO

 

[Romi]

No line on Mack tonight??? The Erdie patsy Abron went the dst withm him. I think Mack gets him out of there and dominates.

 

[pfcwintergreen]

HBO Team saying they think Angulo was sick or having trouble making weight before the fight. Hope he still has enough to beat Cintron ITD!

 

[THE_THONG]

i put my dog collar on to support angulo
kurby

 

[THE_THONG]

YEAH ANGULO

TOUCHING UP KERMIT THE FROG ALREADY
:SIB :SIB

 

[Romi]

i put my dog collar on to support angulo
kurby

going to strt a new thread thongie

 

[Ghost Kid]

Great call NJ !!!!!!!!!!

Congratulations my brother !
You deserve it !

:toast:

I thought the scorecards were terrible
much closer fight than that

but all that matters is YOU CALLED IT RIGHT !
NICE JOB !!!!!!!

 

[nj]

I missed the fight, and before opening this thread, I said "Angulo must have won... oh well, it was worth a shot. Time to enjoy a break"

In this one bout I redeemed two DREADFUL weekends, and feel VERY fortunate to have done so.

Ghost, I respect your analysis more than I do my own. I didn't see the bout but I hear Cintron fought a disciplined fight with heart, which I would have NEVER predicted. I thought he would KO him 1-6.


Thanks for the props, you'll get it back in no time good Sir :toast:

 

[Ghost Kid]

Cintron fought with a ton of heart and smarts
he also gassed out badly and BARELY made it to the end

but he made and he deserved a close decision
WAY TO GO DUDE !

:toast:

 

[THE_THONG]

it weird jimmy lennon jr there

he on the setanta feed?

 

[punchmaster]

HBO Team saying they think Angulo was sick or having trouble making weight before the fight. Hope he still has enough to beat Cintron ITD!

Angulo rehydrated to all of 159, whereas Cintron to 169. Perro was clearly not well with no energy. Showed up to the East Coast on the day of the weigh in... should have bagged the fight since there was a main event. Berto a little too cocky for my liking, plenty of holding while he chats with the HBO crew during the fight after bringing up a plodder from 140. Actually starting to build some respect for Cintron, he's got an angel overlooking him with the Draw against Martinez and catching a sick Perro. He did box well and landed some bombs. He was probably getting hammered with plastered hands from Margacheato so maybe he's getting a deserved break. Didn't he lose both parents by the time he was a young teen- good for Kermit.