I copied/pasted this for your perusal
I copied/pasted this for your perusal
Twitter | Facebook | E-Mail | 562-219-3603 | Schedule | Rankings | Boxer Records
An Offer I Couldn't Refuse... The Boxing Bookie Makes a Play on Cotto-Clottey
by John Chavez
Jun 10, 2009 -
In this past Sunday's segment of TheBoxingTruth Radio... I informed our thousands of listeners to check in this week to see whether "The Boxing Bookie" might be making a "prop" play on the Miguel Cotto-Joshua Clottey bout this coming Saturday. As of the radio recording, there had been no proposition bets open to the public as sportsbook 5dimes.com had only listed the traditional straight plays.
However, it was yesterday that the more specific outcome bets were released to the public and there were some interesting numbers to say the least.
Here they are as follows:
Welterweight 12 rounds - Madison Square Garden, New York, New York - HBO
Sat 6/13 401 Joshua Clottey +290 Over 9? -270
11:00PM (EST) 402 Miguel Angel Cotto -350 Under 9? +230
Sat 6/13 403 Clottey/Cotto goes distance -155
11:00PM (EST) 404 Fight won't go distance +125
Sat 6/13 405 Clottey wins inside distance +436
11:00PM (EST) 406 Not Clottey inside distance -637
Sat 6/13 407 Clottey wins by 12 rnd decision +876
11:00PM (EST) 408 Not Clottey by 12 rnd decision -1561
Sat 6/13 409 Cotto wins inside distance +249
11:00PM (EST) 410 Not Cotto inside distance -322
Sat 6/13 411 Cotto wins by 12 rnd decision -108
11:00PM (EST) 412 Not Cotto by 12 rnd decision -122
Sat 6/13 413 Clottey/Cotto draw +3000
11:00PM (EST) 414 Fight not a draw -5000
In browsing over these figures there is one particular outcome that stands out like a blisterous thumb. It is the proposition that offers Joshua Clottey to win by decision at +876. Being that "The Hitter" is neither a free-swinging brawler along the likes of Antonio Margarito or Ricardo Torres, or a deceptively slick southpaw like Zab Judah or Demarcus "Chop Chop" Corley, it is extremely difficult to envision the Ghanan stopping Miguel Cotto inside the distance. Therefore if one where to have an inkling that Clottey might win or even be somewhat competitive with the Puerto Rican puncher, the decision bet is the way to play.
Being that Clottey is perceived as being quite sturdy physically in addition to having one of the best defenses within the welterweight division, the line for Miguel Cotto by decision victory is the favored outcome out of the specifics at -108. While it'd seem like the safest play amongst the four "prop" bets, there is a chance that Cotto can do what no one else has done against Clottey and that is hurt him badly to the body. Joshua is well-known for having difficulties in making the 147 pound weight class in addition to putting on a drastic amount of weight between the weigh-in and the night of the fight. This can lead a fighter to be somewhat susceptible to being hurt due to the havoc of weight fluctuation on the body. On the other hand, +249 on Cotto by stoppage doesn't offer enough value compared to the probability of it occurring to make any sort of play on it.
While it's no secret that I do tend to favor the hard-punching Cotto in this highly anticipated brawl, the line-maker at 5dimes.com made me an offer I couldn't refuse by offering Clottey by decision at +876.
Yes... I understand that Miguel Cotto is the Top Rank darling.
Yes... I understand that 99 percent of those in attendance will be cheering for the left-hook heavy Rican.
Yes... I understand that there have already been discussions for a potential Manny Pacquiao-Miguel Cotto bout in the fall.
Regardless of that fact, I'm betting based on a value play with a more than viable contender in Joshua Clottey. Due to his exceptional boxing skills I have no doubt that the bout will be quite competitive and should the African warrior be able to dig deeper than he ever has in the past, he might just be able to pull of the clear upset victory.
Don't get me wrong... the odds as well as the people will be stacked heavily against him but nevertheless, this is boxing and anything can happen.
I'll be wagering a meager $100 of my $14,000 bankroll to win $900. (Yes I know the number is +876 but I've rounded down in numerous bets prior so I can afford to round up on this one.)
I did'nt do this, but I did play Clottey+13pts-115.
