Boxing; 8/02/2008; Judah-Clottey; what's my line?

[nj]

Thanks for informing us of the openings at 5D, Zerwas.

I like Marquez a lot at -120, that line should rise. I don't see the size difference playing a factor since that's not Casa's game anyway, and though he looked well vs Katsidis, Kat's style played perfectly for him. I see JMM winning through volume and speed, possibly inside.

The big ? is how age has affected both fighters, Marquez looked terrific a few months ago, and while Joel looked good as well, the match-up was much more favourable than vs Pac.

Casa will almost certainly have diminished speed and reflexes, Marquez may as well, but even then the gap should still favour Marquez, and his technical skill makes up for lost attributes.

I see Marquez winning convincingly, giving the him the opportunity to beat Pac for the 3rd time. Aside from pride, Marquez has never been a big-money fighter and he needs one last huge payday, the motivation factor is through the roof for Marquez.

 

[nj]

You guys analyzed Judah/Clottery very well, I don't see any value is -210/+160.

I see Judah getting frustrated down the stretch as Clottey fights relaxed and disciplined, and makes Judah pay for mistakes. I don't see Clottey getting sucked into a messy fight.

Judah might lose his cool and make terrible mistakes late to be KOed, become sloppy and losing on points, or even commit another blatant foul like vs Mayweather.

I like Clottey here, but at not this line. Clottey inside could be a nice play.

 

[gardenweasel]

Thanks for informing us of the openings at 5D, Zerwas.

I like Marquez a lot at -120, that line should rise. I don't see the size difference playing a factor since that's not Casa's game anyway, and though he looked well vs Katsidis, Kat's style played perfectly for him. I see JMM winning through volume and speed, possibly inside.

The big ? is how age has affected both fighters, Marquez looked terrific a few months ago, and while Joel looked good as well, the match-up was much more favourable than vs Pac.

Casa will almost certainly have diminished speed and reflexes, Marquez may as well, but even then the gap should still favour Marquez, and his technical skill makes up for lost attributes.

I see Marquez winning convincingly, giving the him the opportunity to beat Pac for the 3rd time. Aside from pride, Marquez has never been a big-money fighter and he needs one last huge payday, the motivation factor is through the roof for Marquez.

if theres a knockdown prop,i`d take a look at that...

seems like it takes a few rounds for marquez to adjust to the straight left hand,which casa does very well...

it`s an intriguing fight...would size be an issue?....never had the feeling that marquez was a particularly big,strong jr lightweight...

but,i`m also a marquez fan,n.j....gotta love him for stepping up late in his career to fight so many big fights....

i only wish he`d gotten some bigger fights earlier in his career... when he was in his prime...

 

[nj]

Wow Clottey is already -320. Looks like -210 was a good play, i didnt make it.

 

[gardenweasel]

You guys analyzed Judah/Clottery very well, I don't see any value is -210/+160.

I see Judah getting frustrated down the stretch as Clottey fights relaxed and disciplined, and makes Judah pay for mistakes. I don't see Clottey getting sucked into a messy fight.

Judah might lose his cool and make terrible mistakes late to be KOed, become sloppy and losing on points, or even commit another blatant foul like vs Mayweather.

I like Clottey here, but at not this line. Clottey inside could be a nice play.

i caught it at clottey-180....

thanks to zerwas...:hail ..thank you for sharing,bud...

 

[nj]

if theres a knockdown prop,i`d take a look at that...

seems like it takes a few rounds for marquez to adjust to the straight left hand,which casa does very well...

Great catch, that should be an awesome prop.

Marquez is used to taking quick punches at all angles from Pac, but Casa's punches will likely be more conservative and precise. You're right, Marquez might get caught by a left early or underestimate Casa's counter-punching skills and get sucked into the style he used vs Pac. I'd expect him to get up and fight through it, but yes, that's a terrific prop idea.

Part of my play is going by what Casamayor can't do at this point rather than what Marquez can, that's speculative definitely, but I think it's worth the gamble.

 

[nj]

i caught it at clottey-180....

thanks to zerwas...:hail ..thank you for sharing,bud...

Nice timing! You can probably cash Judah at +250 or higher.

Hopefully I can cash Casamayor +180, already scalped Margarito +206, looks like that was too early.

Thanks again Zerwas.



btw, who's going to man up and cap Jose Conseco vs Vai Sikahema, whomever the hell that is?:mj07:

 

[gardenweasel]

Nice timing! You can probably cash Judah at +250 or higher.

Hopefully I can cash Casamayor +180, already scalped Margarito +206, looks like that was too early.

Thanks again Zerwas.



btw, who's going to man up and cap Jose Conseco vs Vai Sikahema, whomever the hell that is?:mj07:

i posted a nice article about it a few minutes ago....


ashamed it`s not on t.v. or a stream somewhere......

 

[nj]

my bad GW, I only refreshed this thread, didn't check for new threads.

and the man does like Thompson quite a bit.

 

[Ghost Kid]

wow people pounding clottey pretty hard on that opening line

hope i can get a better line in vegas...I'm on Clottey

I actually real like the under 11.5

I thought they would have set that at 9.5 or 10.5

I think Clottey can wear down Judah and stop him

I also agree on Marquez

surprised they opened that at even...now Marquez is -190 and I still think that's a good price

Casa has no legs...Katsidis had him gone before the big mistake

 

[nj]

What do you guys think of Henry/Rubin Williams over 6.5 +125?

Williams has been in there with some tough, world-class dudes. He got stopped by Ward but that was a cut stoppage, I put 5$ on Williams +2500 for kicks, the ESPN curse might strike again in a miracle.

If you want a laugh, try and cap the Austin Trout/Byron Tyson line. This is as ridiculous as capping a Charlie Zelenoff fight :mj07:

I might take a small play on the rd and fighter dogs in that, it looks like a crapshoot.



edit - wow, based on their boxrec stats Trout and Tyson look like full-time cab drivers and part-time boxers, but Graham gave it a pretty thorough write-up. I had no idea Trout was a distinguished amateur, I thought this was one of those fringe fights ESPN uses in the case the main event ends early.

Ghost Dog thx for the input, Im not too familiar with them, and only put a small play, might even buy it back and eat the juice. Graham has it over 8.5 +140.

 

[Ghost Kid]

R. Williams is pretty worn out brother

that's a tough over/under....i was impressed with chris henry against diaconu

i think the line is pretty dead on...the ref is going to stop it right around 6 or 7

but at +2500 you gotta throw 5 bucks on R. Williams ! The ESPN curse, right ? :mj07:

 

[punchmaster]

If you want a laugh, try and cap the Austin Trout/Byron Tyson line. This is as ridiculous as capping a Charlie Zelenoff fight :mj07:

I might take a small play on the rd and fighter dogs in that, it looks like a crapshoot.



edit - wow, based on their boxrec stats Trout and Tyson look like full-time cab drivers and part-time boxers, but Graham gave it a pretty thorough write-up. I had no idea Trout was a distinguished amateur, I thought this was one of those fringe fights ESPN uses in the case the main event ends early.

.

Think I've seen Austin Trout once and wasn't blown away but Tyson not being able to get by the two dudes he has draws with, and being floored by a 6-17 guy, I'd have to lean southpaw Trout.

 

[Romi]

Think I've seen Austin Trout once and wasn't blown away but Tyson not being able to get by the two dudes he has draws with, and being floored by a 6-17 guy, I'd have to lean southpaw Trout.

Nice to see you still posting here Punch.

I put a few bucks on the fish...purely boxrec. I also bet the under on Zab/Clot +170 11 1/2 rds. I don't see zab hanging around for 12 rds of beatdown.

 

[Ghost Kid]

agreed. zab ain't gonna make it through this one.

i actually like the under more than the straight bet on clottey (laying 3 to 1 not so preferable)

 

[Zerwas]

Judahs chin isnt to bad, is it!?
I mean he went 10 rounds with Cotto and 12 with Mayweather.

Casamaoyer +230 against Marquez. :scared
I like Marquez, but he's moving up in weight and I'm not sure how he will handle Casas power.

 

[Ghost Kid]

zerwas you're right his chin ain't that bad

just going with youth and toughness on this one

just my take

 

[MCostello1975]

I think you will see a higher number late on JMM. People bet against Casamayor last time out and they are creatures of habit. I think JMM will coast to dec win. But its pricey.

 

[frank s.]

Still no line in Vegas on Clottey or Marquez. Bunch of chicken shits! I am embaressed to say I live here sometimes. I'm out $100 in gas already driving to these damn books. I think the opening lines were fair but now they are scary.

 

[Zerwas]

Since we have no thread for the weekend and some other fights are discussed here, what do you think about Gomez Adamek 5dimes has +150 for over 6.5.

Gomez has never been stopped, I could only see a stoppage where the referee decides that Gomez has taken enough punishment, so probably no early stoppage here...
I have never seen Gomez though.

Opinons!?