Boxing; 9/13/2008; w/e plays

[frank s.]

Casamayor+300/12 dec+643
Mora+110
Guzman-235
I also think Bradley handles Cherry, but no play at that price. When the Lederman points/round props are up, I would think Casa 1st 3, maybe Forrest 1st 3, and Guzman 1st 3. Depends on the numbers if I play these.

 

[Ghost Kid]

Frank

We see this weekend very similarly

I like Bradley by dec or late KO but price is too high to play for me

Mora by decision

Guzman by decision

and I like JMM, but at that price I have to go Casa by dec

good luck brother and keep it rolling guys

 

[Sonny Palermo]

Frank, you know I am, like you, a Marquez fan, and I also see this the same way as you - trouble for JMM.

I am in mid-move, stuck in a kind of relocation limbo/hell and haven't been on-line much until this past week, but wanted to drop by and say hello and exchange thoughts with you and GW and the rest of the guys on this one.

My first thought when this opened months ago: - 3 bucks or >? No.
JMM was/is just a little bit of power and a little more-solid chin away from being in arguments for all time greats; he is definitely in the argument for "in his time" great. I think his knockdowns are attributable to mental slips and chin, despite the fact he is is smart, and has solid movement/defense, and would not be surprised to see him hit the deck again on Saturday vs a southie guy who naturally fights in the 130's.
At 3-1 or better I gotta take the pup in this one.

 

[Sonny Palermo]

PS - And PPV? WTF!!!!!!!!!!

 

[frank s.]

Sonny! Good to see you stopping bye. I remember what you said so I did'nt know where you were. The odds favor a Casamayor play as almost everyone seems to be saying. Also, PPV is absurd. If I was in town this w/e I would surely score scalp ticks as this one is not the marquee fight the greedy bastards think it is. I like Casa ahead after 3 rounds if that prop is available. I hope Forrest has a depleted gas tank and Mora shows up. If Guzman fights smart he wins this one, but he is in for a real challenge this time. Good luck Sonny on your future arrangement.

 

[THE_THONG]

looks like there will be two set of judges for Bradley

http://www.fightnews.com/fightnews_2/headlines//EkkEppyplVrkCZKNoa.html

which will the sportsbooks choose as official?


frank s,

what was the line in vegas for Nate? i'll prolly bet him when i'm there this weekend, i think at the Palms

i was going to go with mora, but nate has juicier odds and a live chance

 

[frank s.]

I only checked 1 shop and Campbell was +170. I would think you MAY get a better # at the Palms or a strip joint as they usually inflate the # on the chalk. I am considering making small DRAW plays on all 3 of the fights as they seem to have decision written all over them and a draw is always a possibility at very long odds.

 

[Zerwas]

When the Lederman points/round props are up, I would think Casa 1st 3, maybe Forrest 1st 3, and Guzman 1st 3. Depends on the numbers if I play these.

I expect there will only be Lederman props for Casa Marquez and Mora Forrest (HBO fights).

Forrest was ahead after 3 last time and I expect him to be ahead this time too...definite play for me unless the lines are really bad.

I'm not so sure about Casa and Marquez...
could you share your thoughts with us, frank....

 

[nj]

the man likes mora and campbell, 2% each. for me mora/forrest is no play unless a small value play if it pops up. i had a HUGE wager on guzman through parlays but scalped it last night with campbell +205, thank goodness, it's dropped to +175 across the board.

if you're a forrest or guzman backer, now would be a good time to play them, money is coming in on the other side.

 

[nj]

for those interested, the write-up and analysis for playing campbell is much more thorough and plausible than the mora play, in which there was no real insight or new information.

id be more confident in following his campbell pick than mora. mora should win, but there's many unknowns, and the line is accurate.

 

[nj]

casa ahead after 3 is a smart play, i beliedve gardenweasel was the first to mention it way back, marquez could suffer a flash knockdown by a southpoaw counter. ill definitely take that prop.

forrest ahead after 3 should win as well, it will probably be -110. mora attributes his slow start last time to being cold and his hands hurredly wrapped, which makes sense considering the preciding fight surpirsingly ended by 1st round KO, giving no warm-up time for the next fight.

 

[crow]

I like Mora a lot, because ALL rounds in the first fight were close and could have been scored either way.
The judging will give Mora the benefit of the doubt this time.
Unless Forrest dominates and wins clearly 8 rounds or so, this one is in the bag.
A draw is a a good option too.

 

[gardenweasel]

casa ahead after 3 is a smart play, i beliedve gardenweasel was the first to mention it way back, marquez could suffer a flash knockdown by a southpoaw counter. ill definitely take that prop.

.

nah...it wasn`t me...that was a different fight..

 

[Sonny Palermo]

Weasel, new avatar or did I just not notice? maybe it sticks out now because I was up in Saskatchewan 2 weeks back chasing Northen Pike at Tobin Lake during the day, while at night I was working on some dialogue pages and ended up with a bit on squirrels;

I took Mora too, hate to bet against Vernon because he has done much for me, $-wise and opportunity wise, but I think this is a case of second verse same as the first; plus, I plan for Mora money to insure Casamayor (small) play, as I root for JMM and expect him to win, but not backing him at almost - 4 $'s;

haven't placed Campbell/Guz $ yet so it won't be an investment, just tv action, but leaning dog . . .

 

[frank s.]

One of my collaborators feels Forrest by decision is a strong as it comes. I bet Mora SU+110, so I may bitch-up and hedge with VF by Dec+250 as a little saver. As JMM is/has been the consumate counter-puncher maybe Casa will press the action early giving us the "ahead after 3" play on Casa. Forrest will also come out strong hence him also ahead first 3, and with Guzman's speed mentioned quite often around here, MAYBE he will be in front early, but Campbell is a sharpie so that may be tricky.

 

[gardenweasel]

Weasel, new avatar or did I just not notice? maybe it sticks out now because I was up in Saskatchewan 2 weeks back chasing Northen Pike at Tobin Lake during the day, while at night I was working on some dialogue pages and ended up with a bit on squirrels;

I took Mora too, hate to bet against Vernon because he has done much for me, $-wise and opportunity wise, but I think this is a case of second verse same as the first; plus, I plan for Mora money to insure Casamayor (small) play, as I root for JMM and expect him to win, but not backing him at almost - 4 $'s;

haven't placed Campbell/Guz $ yet so it won't be an investment, just tv action, but leaning dog . . .

the avatar`s actually me...almost wore my doo-rag instead of the fedora...think i made the right decision...

sonny....welcome....you`re missed.....they don`t have a computer in the prison library?



we`ve discussed jmm before.....we`re definitely on the same page...we`re both jmm "pocket boys"...

i`ve said several times that theres not a more...?? "satisfying"(trying to find the right word here)guy to watch for me than jmm...

i tend to get dyspepsia when i`m forced to bet against him....

but,i think yourself and franks have come to the only logical conclusion(from a wagering perspective)......

i wrote this earlier in the week in the dlh thread...

"""""which brings me to jmm/casamayor....

jmm moving up 5 pounds...which is alot...to fight a guy who`s extremely clever...has surprising pop.....and is a lefty(and leftys have always given jmm problems)....

again ,i`m thinking that casa hasn`t always been the bigger,stronger guy in many of his tough fights(most times,not)...he will be here...

casamayor isn`t some clown....yes he`s 37...marquez is 35....and given that manny had marquez on his ass 4 times in their 2 fights and the fact that casa just stopped big,strong michael katsidis,i gotta take those odds...

i love marquez and maybe casa`s heading over the hill,but,given the circumstances,i can`t pass up the 3-1 odds here""""",....


i do think theres some obvious slippage in casmayor`s game....obviously,nobody would be shocked if marquez was just to quick and surgical for casamayor at this point in his career......

but,i believe that at 3-1,it`s the only way to fly.....

one last comment....i don`t understand these odds....i think they`re "scary prohibitive" on jmm....and it`s making me paranoid...maybe the public just finally caught up with us jmm lovers...

but,theres an odor about these odds(just cause i`m paranoid doesn`t mean they`re not out to get me):142squint

 

[Zerwas]

For everybody who likes Casa, he's available at +1137 W12 at 5dimes right now.

I alrady have some money on Casa and I didnt want to increase that amount but those odds were just too good to pass...

Maybe i will look for some kind of hedge opportunity now...

 

[THE_THONG]

whoa nice odds prolly much juicier than vegas

in vegas i'll guess casa by dec wont go over +450

casa is my fave, and juan is #2 so this is a dream matchup for me, too bad it didn't happen 5 or 6 years ago

 

[Zerwas]

The man is on Marquez by decision, maybe thats not too bad for me actually, he has not been very good with his picks lately.... ;-)

Marquez will probably more active than Casa, but he has been down sooo many times against Pacman and even Barrera, so I wont be surprised if it happens here again...a few 10:8 rounds could prove to be crucial on the scorecards...also, you never know how he will carry the weight.

The same goes for Guzman.
I'm actually quite surprised that the odds for Campbell by decision are better than the odds for Campbell inside. I really have trouble seeing a ko for Campbell.
Campbell W12 is my play!

A draw does not look too unlikely either...

 

[nj]

im worried about a clash of heads in mora/forrest and casa/jmm. mora is just so damn awkward and darting trying to get inside, while casa headbutts on purpose and is a southpaw.

id be hesitant to take 5d's 12rd dec. prop, there could be a technical decision this weekend.