Boxing; 9/13/2008; w/e plays
- Thread starter frank s.
- Start date
thats a good question crow.......my guess would be that "12 rd decision" means "12 round decision"...
they have the edge on us...
i`m gonna try and wean myself off these "specific outcome props" for awhile....
i don`t enjoy picking a side correctly and losing because i didn`t pick the correct manner in which the victory was achieved...
that sucks...
If a fight is stopped BEFORE the end of the 12th, meaning it did not go to the cards, you would lose a prop that Marquez wins by decision. To say a "12" round decision is redundant because if the fight is scheduled for 12 rounds, that is academic. If you think Marquez wins defore the 12th and it doesn't go to the scorecards, bet Marquez INSIDE. Also, some folks are under the impression if you bet Marquez WINS rounds 10-12, and it goes to the judges, they win because they THINK Marquez won in the 12th round. He wins in 10-12 if it is STOPPED in rounds 10-11-12 only.http://www.ringsidebygus.com/boxing-terms.html#t. This site explains all the terminology.
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Frank, thanks for the ops on 3 rnd stuff, as of yet I haven't played any of this type of wager on boxing, which is out of character as I am big on NBA and NFL Q1 bets. Will pop 1 or 2 of the ones you pointed out.
Quote from GW:
"I`ve said several times that theres not a more satisfying guy to watch for me than jmm!"
????!!!!
Tell me Weaz,
"Do you like movies about gladiators?"
Just kidding.
Good choice on the fedora.
Yeah they have a computer in the prison library but the key to survival in 'da joint' is watching your back(side) so I try not to divert focus by staring at things in front of me; besides, I'm more of a reader/writer than an on-line guy.
Don't want to hijack the thread b4 the fight, but after it I will post the squirrel dialogue from one of the manuscripts I am working on. You might like it.
Zerwas, the weight on its own is only minor concern, if memory serves (and it seldom does anymore) Marquez rehydrated to 10+ over weigh-in of 129 last fight, and he looked OK, but weight PLUS southpaw PLUS experience in tough fights of Casa has me very concerned. The prop on Casa you pointed out looks very attractive, and let's face it - 'decisions' have not always been kind to JMM in the past.
Quote from GW:
"I`ve said several times that theres not a more satisfying guy to watch for me than jmm!"
????!!!!
Tell me Weaz,
"Do you like movies about gladiators?"
Just kidding.
Good choice on the fedora.
Yeah they have a computer in the prison library but the key to survival in 'da joint' is watching your back(side) so I try not to divert focus by staring at things in front of me; besides, I'm more of a reader/writer than an on-line guy.
Don't want to hijack the thread b4 the fight, but after it I will post the squirrel dialogue from one of the manuscripts I am working on. You might like it.
Zerwas, the weight on its own is only minor concern, if memory serves (and it seldom does anymore) Marquez rehydrated to 10+ over weigh-in of 129 last fight, and he looked OK, but weight PLUS southpaw PLUS experience in tough fights of Casa has me very concerned. The prop on Casa you pointed out looks very attractive, and let's face it - 'decisions' have not always been kind to JMM in the past.
much anticipated....glad we agree on the casa/marquez set-to.... it`s reassuring.....cause i`m not always with it...sometimes i feel like i`m under attack from something formless and completely silent.....
/nevermind...... i had my underwear on backwards...
You re right, the weight might not mean anything, but its still an intangible. And as you pointed out, there are quite a lot intangibles, so why not take those odds..
"decisions" have not been kind to marquez, but neither were they kind to casa, actually I'm a little afraid that marquez will get those close rounds...well, lets wait and see...
Bodog has a habit of posting lines on fighter A gets knocked down or out that are only slightly worse than the odds on fighter B wins inside...thats another play for me...right now I'm pretty big on Casa, actuallly a little too big for my liking...
Its really a little confusing with all those wins 12 round decision or wins inside the distance, but after a while you have figured it out....
I am playing Adolfo Landeros at +250 over Wilfredo Vazquez on Friday.
Landeros has never been stopped and he has been in with some good guys.
Vasquez has only been past 6 rounds once and that was a draw in 8 rounds against a no-namer.
In this fight, he is being asked to go 12 rounds with a very durable fighter.
Good luck all.
Landeros has never been stopped and he has been in with some good guys.
Vasquez has only been past 6 rounds once and that was a draw in 8 rounds against a no-namer.
In this fight, he is being asked to go 12 rounds with a very durable fighter.
Good luck all.
Sure you can, you just need to be on the right site.. 5 dimes is unique in that it specifies 12 round decision so your screwed on a say 7th round technical decision. If you find a site that says Marquez wins by KO, TKO, or DQ and has another prop that says Marquez by decision.... a tech decision wins decision prop because it still went to the scorecards. A tech decision doesn't fall under KO, TKO, DQ.
Here's a fun play of mine for the weekend on the theory that Forrest didn't overtrain for his last fight , he's just old for the sport , plain and simple and he's rematching an in his absolute physical prime guy who now has a 12 rounder under his belt on the world stage,, who actually started slow last fight and may go for it a bit once Forrest folds.
Pending
Risk / To Win Amount: 12.00 / 1,020.00 (USD) Accepted 9/11/2008 9:19 PM - EST
Mora by KO round 12 9/13/2008 9:10:01 PM - (EST) +8500
Unlikely, but not impossible, hit the 11th round also... Gosh, hope I don't lose the 12 bucks.
- Jun 3, 2008
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My point was i only know 5dimes that has these 12 rounds dec rules, and they really clean the house when it happens, and it's really completely unfair as they don't give the option to bet on that, except if you play the over/ under.
80% of my big wager on Guzman by dec is at Ladbrokes, where i win even if there's a tech decision.I hedged it with Campbell on points.
My other plays are Mora by dec medium/ big.
Parlay with Mora/ Forrest and Guzman/ Campbell goes 12 + Marquez by split or majority dec, hedged by Casa split dec.
80% of my big wager on Guzman by dec is at Ladbrokes, where i win even if there's a tech decision.I hedged it with Campbell on points.
My other plays are Mora by dec medium/ big.
Parlay with Mora/ Forrest and Guzman/ Campbell goes 12 + Marquez by split or majority dec, hedged by Casa split dec.
I think a technical decision would mean that a fighter wins inside the distance...
@weepaul
I played Landeros for the same reasons.
@punchy
These are the kind of value bets that I like, though it's pretty unlikely of course...
Forrest to be ahaed on Ledermans card after 3 -140.
Forrest was clearly ahead last time, I also played Mora straight..
By my logic, Forrest chances to win will be pretty bad if he isnt ahead after 3, so these bets dont contradict each other...
@weepaul
I played Landeros for the same reasons.
@punchy
These are the kind of value bets that I like, though it's pretty unlikely of course...
Forrest to be ahaed on Ledermans card after 3 -140.
Forrest was clearly ahead last time, I also played Mora straight..
By my logic, Forrest chances to win will be pretty bad if he isnt ahead after 3, so these bets dont contradict each other...
I'd say a Tech Decision is NOT a win by decision, but a stoppage INSIDE the distance due to various possibilities. If a fight goes 12 rounds it goes to the cards, hence a win by decision. That is NOT considered a tech dec. If a guy sustains a cut caused by a punch and he cannot continue, he is the loser by tech dec, as what happened with Barrios and his ripped lip versus Juarez. If a guy cannot answer the bell for whatever reason, it is a TKO win. By definition a tech decision is when a fight is STOPPED for whatever reason. It is a win INSIDE the distance.
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im playing bradley/cherry under, or if available bradley ITD.
mora 9-12 is solid, in case forrest really is washed up and exhausted in the corner b/c of mora's pressure, think tsyzu-hatton. ive read osme articles about mora's sparring, apparently he's attacking the body and working on his power.
as silly as this sounds, im waiting to see the ring entrance of forrest before considering a wager. if i see a poker-faced, heavily clothed forrest march to the ring, im betting mora straight. if forrest is smiling and singing with the music, engaging the fans, and looking loose, im going with my sentimental fav, taking a small play on forrest straight.
that must sound insane or plain stupid, but im serious. remember forrest's ring entrances and pre-fight behaviour over the years and notice the complete change in his demeanor before the first Mora fight.
mora 9-12 is solid, in case forrest really is washed up and exhausted in the corner b/c of mora's pressure, think tsyzu-hatton. ive read osme articles about mora's sparring, apparently he's attacking the body and working on his power.
as silly as this sounds, im waiting to see the ring entrance of forrest before considering a wager. if i see a poker-faced, heavily clothed forrest march to the ring, im betting mora straight. if forrest is smiling and singing with the music, engaging the fans, and looking loose, im going with my sentimental fav, taking a small play on forrest straight.
that must sound insane or plain stupid, but im serious. remember forrest's ring entrances and pre-fight behaviour over the years and notice the complete change in his demeanor before the first Mora fight.
why?.........i thought that there was no o/u line at 5 dimes because they expected a flood of over wagers........
cherry seems like an incredibly durable dude.....
curious to hear your rationale on the itd....
thanks...
Round robin-2's/3's
Round robin-2's/3's
Cherry/Casamayor/Campbell/Castaneda. Investing one bean/ potential return $5886.45.
Round robin-2's/3's
Cherry/Casamayor/Campbell/Castaneda. Investing one bean/ potential return $5886.45.
cherry is durable and has heart, but that only takes you so far. he wasn't areal lightweight and he's definitely not a real 140lber.
by all accounts bradley is taking this fight seriously and is on weight and healthy, ready to fight for 12. i missed cherry's fight vs johnston, but when watching him vs quiles, he comes straight forward but doesnt throw enough on his way in, and doesnt use lateral movement. he had to plant and get comfortable to punch, and that was against a soft-punching opponent who usually stays outside. his punches were unorthodox and fundamentally improper.
bradley is physically stronger, with great fundamentals, solid chin and workrate, at some point cherry will be too courageous for his own good, and get into a fight with someone more skileld than he is. I see a coutner punch, perhaps an uppercut or a straight right over cherry's jab, and that will knock him down. if he does get up, there are still plenty rounds of pressure left against a more skilled, strong-chinned, heavier opponent left.
cherry's heart will carry him far, but his body will hae to shut down at some point. I could see this going 10, but not 12. unfortunately there are few clips of either on youtube. i saw the witter-bradley fight, havent watched cherry as much as of late, except for highlights and post-fight reports. he still sounds like an ESPN fighter to me, fun to watch with explosive power at lighter weights, but not ready for a big jr. welter at the level of bradley.
by all accounts bradley is taking this fight seriously and is on weight and healthy, ready to fight for 12. i missed cherry's fight vs johnston, but when watching him vs quiles, he comes straight forward but doesnt throw enough on his way in, and doesnt use lateral movement. he had to plant and get comfortable to punch, and that was against a soft-punching opponent who usually stays outside. his punches were unorthodox and fundamentally improper.
bradley is physically stronger, with great fundamentals, solid chin and workrate, at some point cherry will be too courageous for his own good, and get into a fight with someone more skileld than he is. I see a coutner punch, perhaps an uppercut or a straight right over cherry's jab, and that will knock him down. if he does get up, there are still plenty rounds of pressure left against a more skilled, strong-chinned, heavier opponent left.
cherry's heart will carry him far, but his body will hae to shut down at some point. I could see this going 10, but not 12. unfortunately there are few clips of either on youtube. i saw the witter-bradley fight, havent watched cherry as much as of late, except for highlights and post-fight reports. he still sounds like an ESPN fighter to me, fun to watch with explosive power at lighter weights, but not ready for a big jr. welter at the level of bradley.
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what the hell is going on in mississippi regarding the judges for saturday's fights? there are articles popping up all over the place, can anyone sum it up? are we getting experienced, reliable judges and referees, or are we getting some amateur-level yolkels to oversee these bouts? this scares me as a bettor. i dont want to see early stoppages or judges who dont appreciate precision over ineffective aggression.
edit - i read that wbc wants Tom Kaczmarek and Max de Luca as judges, mississipi wants state judges. i know kazmarek scored for dlh over floyd which was a travesty, dont know much about de luca. im actually more concerned about the referee than the judges. a bad ref can stop a fight early, deduct points fruitlessly, or lose control of the action.
the judges and referees could be the deciding factor on saturday's fights, if anyone is up-to-speed, please update.
edit - i read that wbc wants Tom Kaczmarek and Max de Luca as judges, mississipi wants state judges. i know kazmarek scored for dlh over floyd which was a travesty, dont know much about de luca. im actually more concerned about the referee than the judges. a bad ref can stop a fight early, deduct points fruitlessly, or lose control of the action.
the judges and referees could be the deciding factor on saturday's fights, if anyone is up-to-speed, please update.
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