Boxing; 9/13/2008; w/e plays

[Romi]

I like the over on Landeros Vasquez @-165 9 1/2. Jonny Gonzo couldn't stop Landeros and Vasquez has yet to be beat. I wouldn't be surprised to see the upset but Landeros has little pop so I see a dec here. I took Bradley -600. I have a small play on Mora + odds. Good luck everybody.

I also took the under on Ortiz/arrieta 9 1/2 -190

 

[weepaul]

My Bets-

HUGE at -200 on Guzman to beat Nate. I love Nate but just think Guzman is a better version of Nate.

Small at +900 on Guzman to win by KO/TKO inside the distance. Can't resist those odds. Nate might be cut and battered as in the second Peden fight.

Small at +250 on Landeros to beat Vasquez. Lets see how Vasquez reacts to going more than 6 rounds.

My Opinions (No bets)-

Bradley beats Cherry on points. Bradley is too skilled.

Marquez beats Casamayor on points. Casa looked like shit in the Katsidas fight apart from a few really good rounds. He looked old. 5 years ago, this fight is too hard to call.

Forrest beats Mora. I don't think Forrest is as bad as he looked in the last fight. He has one more good fight left in him.

Good luck all.

 

[punchmaster]

I'd say a Tech Decision is NOT a win by decision, but a stoppage INSIDE the distance due to various possibilities. If a fight goes 12 rounds it goes to the cards, hence a win by decision. That is NOT considered a tech dec. If a guy sustains a cut caused by a punch and he cannot continue, he is the loser by tech dec, as what happened with Barrios and his ripped lip versus Juarez. If a guy cannot answer the bell for whatever reason, it is a TKO win. By definition a tech decision is when a fight is STOPPED for whatever reason. It is a win INSIDE the distance.

Think your getting a little too hung up on this but knowing the rules is important, so if a guys sustains a cut from a punch and can't continue, it's a TKO Frank, not a technical decision, go look at Rocky Juarez on boxrec, TKO win over Barrios- cut from a punch. A technical decision is when a fighter is cut from a headbutt and can't continue, there's a difference. 5dimes inside the distance grades them all the same, most other sites don't. Take Clottey, Judah, now the retarded referee ruled the cut from a butt cause Judah said so and Clottey was ticked that he won only a TD, not a TKO. Clottey inside the distance on 5dimes, great it doesn't matter, but if you took Clottey by KO, TKO, or DQ on bodog or the greek, the ref fukked you and that bet loses, and the option of Clottey by decision would have won on Bodog or Greek. Dead subject.

 

[Oddessa]

A wager on a fighter "Inside Distance" wins if the selected fighter wins by KO, TKO, DQ, or technical decision.

A wager on a fighter to win by "KO" wins if the selected fighter wins by KO, TKO, or DQ.-5Dimes
And a 12 Round Decision is exactly as worded.

A fighter to win by Decision. A technical decision is a winner.

All these books have different rules. For instance. Books I doi some work with wil pay the + pointspread props as a winner if it goes to technical decison where as 5dimes grades any winner inside the distance the winner even if a guy +12.5 loses 50-46 on 3 cards. See below..

In points wagering handicap bets, any fighter winning before the fight goes its scheduled distance is the winner. If the fight completes all scheduled rounds, then the cumulative score of all three judges' scorecards will be used. The cumulative score for each fighter will have the point-spread handicap applied to determine the winner. A technical draw will be graded as "no action." -5Dimes

5dimes is a great book.

Bodog on the other hand pays the winner + the points if it covers even if iuts a technical draw.

Bodog is great book.

So know the rules.

So you have to be selective in what prop suits your needs. If you have headbutt prone guys....you would naturally weigh out the the math to see which situation benifits your point spread wager before making it.

Greeks cut limits...I guess thats what happens when you jack up every favorite on the board regardless of what other shops maybe using and leaving scalps on board.

And many Euro books are just cutting limits left and right. I have money tied up in a few toilets where they dropped my fight wagers to $25 max. One bet per fight only regardless if they move their line or not... So I chose to not bet them at all anymore.

and on the Showtime card...Official scores would simply be the scores that the winner in the ring is granted the decision by. Regardless of what the WBC says. WBC cards are as significant to wagering on the fight as Al Bersteins. They arent.

All the judges hype has done nothing but get this non- PPV Card more press. Good or bad..its working...

anyways...best of luck....and nice to see Sonny P posting.

 

[nj]

Thanks for answering my question about Mississipi judges Odessa, do you have any insight as to the judges/referees working the fights? If they're not WBC guys, are they local state officials or officials from other sanctioning organizations?

 

[Oddessa]

I think 1 is Bill Clancy....Bill is one of the 3...he scored Nate 116-111 vs Diaz...he got the winner right despite the venue....

Bill is good guy, good selection IMO , only drawback...which I think is over dramatized could be his ties to DK date back to 1995 ish. Ths Don King influence isnt waht it used to be...and Bill was close with Bobby Mitchell ...who despite his indictment on fight fixing...where bobby was fall guy back in the day..... Bill seemed to maintain his integrity...

Honst guy IMO. Noteworthy scorecards on him were Rahman vs Tua and Harding vs Griffen..where he differed from the other judges.

Good ref too. One of the ebst out there now as ref... I met him in 1994 then again in 1997. Bill'ss very experienced and I think he'll score an honest/fair fight if he is on point. he is smart guy and the example made of Bobby being so close to his home....I wouldnt expect anything but the best out of him..

 

[Oddessa]

 

[nj]

Thanks for the strong insight Oddessa, it's hard enough to cap the fight, let alone cap the officials lol. Should be a great card.

 

[nj]

Landeros by decision is available +650 ish at 5d, I took it.

 

[nj]

5d has so many props on marq/casa i got a headache reading through them.

small play on casa aheader after 3 +200, smaller play on kd before round 7 +300

i figure casa's best chance here is to catch jmm with a surprise left-handed counter, he's the more shopworn fighter and will fade down the stretch. rounds 1-3 should be his best, try and catch a cold and still unsettled jmm with a flash kd.

 

[frank s.]

prop

prop

Forrest ahead after 3-120(Lederman).
Casa ahead after 3+195
Draw-all 3 fights all long odds; no need to mention.

 

[nj]

i like them all, frank.

heres a prop i love: forrest/mora leader after 3 loses or draw +140. if i told you ahead of time you could get +140 odds on either guy, would you take it?

likely forrest ahead after 3 as he catches mora coming in and makes mora adjust, then mora finds his groove while forrest faded, leading to a mora win.

forrest after 3, leader after 3 loses.

 

[Romi]

added the under on mathysse/castaneda

 

[weepaul]

How can Guzman be nearly 4 pounds over in a weight division he has never fought in.

This Fukin sucks balls.

 

[Ghost Kid]

i may buy back my guzman bet

if they even still fight

what the f is guzman thinking?

 

[nj]

no kidding. id read guzman hired a strength and conditioning coach to help him get to 135 and use new workout methods, way to overshoot by 4 frikn pounds!

part of me is hoping this bout is just called off, if i have to buy back campbell it will cost some serious juice.

campbell sd 10 for 150
guz sd 15 for 135

 

[nj]

Joan Guzman did not come back to the scale by the prescribed time, and therefor never made the 135-pound limit for Saturday night's lightweight title clash against IBF/WBA/WBA champion Nate Campbell. It appears at this time that the fight will go on but Campbell's titles, of course, would not be on the line.

edit - it's clear that guzman did not come back to the scales, we don't know what he weighed 2hrs after weighing 138.5

i dont know what to make of this. does guzman have a 3.5 pound advantage and didnt bother to drain himself? or did he sweat his ass off and still not make weight?

hopefully he went into the lounge and played video games rather than tried and failed.

 

[Andrey]

Rules clarification

Rules clarification

Mattyssee vs Castaneda finished as no decision in round 3.
What will happen to your wager if you bet under 7.5 on this fight. Is this wager should be graded as a win or it is no action?

 

[nj]

Mattyssee vs Castaneda finished as no decision in round 3.
What will happen to your wager if you bet under 7.5 on this fight. Is this wager should be graded as a win or it is no action?

no contest, all wagers are void. sounds like under bettors got screwed.

 

[Andrey]

no contest, all wagers are void. sounds like under bettors got screwed.

Thanks, you are absolutly right. Book graded as no action. Actualy I found rulse just now for this case in TheGreek and 5Dimes and boths says it will be graded as no action.
It is so wierd, I am betting many years but I never run in in situation like this, I guess now I will know.