CNOTES 2023-2024 COLLEGE FOOTBALL BEST BETS + NEWS AND NOTES

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Completed Picks​

DateLeagueGameScorePickOutcome
Sep 22, 2023NCAAFBoise State
San Diego State		34
31		SDSU +6.5Win
Sep 20, 2023MLBSan Francisco
Arizona		1
7		ARI +101Win
Sep 19, 2023WNBAAtlanta
Dallas		74
101		Over 170.5Win
Sep 15, 2023NCAAFArmy
Texas-San Antonio		37
29		Over 42.0Win
 
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BEST BETS AUGUST THRU SEPT.

09/22/2023................................5 - 1............................83.33%................................+ 19.50
09/21/2023................................1 - 1........................... 50.00%.................................- 0.50
09/16/2023..............................17 - 13........................56.66%..................................+ 13.50
09/15/2023..............................4 - 1............................80.00%..................................+ 14.50
09/14/2023..............................0 - 3............................00.00%...................................- 16.50
09/09/2023............................18 - 15 -1....................54.54%..................................+ 8.50
09/08/2023.............................2 - 1.............................66.66%..................................+ 4.50
09/04/2023.............................2 - 0...........................100.00%..................................+ 10.00
09/03/2023.............................2 - 2............................50.00%...................................- 1.00
09/02/2023...........................25 - 20.........................55.55%...................................+ 15.00
09/01/2023.............................5 - 2............................71.42%...................................+ 14.00
08/26/2023.............................6 - 4............................60.00%...................................+ 8.00

TOTALS..................................87 - 63 - 1.......................58.00%..................................+ 89.50
 
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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Most home runs leading off a game in MLB history:
81— Rickey Henderson
57— George Springer
54— Alfonso Soriano
53— Craig Biggio
48— Ian Kinsler
48— Mookie Betts

Quote of the Day
“It’s elite company, that’s for sure. I’m just glad I got a front-row seat to watch it.”
Braves’ manager Brian Snitker, on Ronald Acuna’s season

Saturday’s quiz
Who was the first major leaguer to hit 40+ home runs and steal 40+ bases in the same season?

Friday’s quiz
49ers QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.

Thursday’s quiz
El Paso, TX hosts the Sun Bowl every December.

*******************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a busy Friday…….​

— Braves 9, Nationals 6— Ronald Acuna is the first player ever to hit 40+ home runs, steal 60+ bases in the same season.

— Brewers 16, Marlins 1— Milwaukee scored 12 runs in the second inning, clinching their fifth playoff spot in six years.
Christian Yelich hit two homers and a double, knocked in five runs.

— Phillies 5, Mets 4 (10)— Alec Bohm had the walk-off single in the 10th inning, after the Mets tied the game in the ninth, on a Brett Baty home run.
Mets are only fourth team ever to finish under .500, the season after they won 100+ games.

— Rangers 8, Mariners 5— Rookie Evan Carter hit a 3-run homer as Texas takes over first place in the AL West.

— Royals 7, Astros 5— Houston is 3-7 in its last ten games; Kansas City has won eight of its last nine games— they’re 52-102 but still competing.
Astros are hanging on by a thread to the last playoff spot in the AL.

— New York 7, Arizona 1— Aaron Judge hit three homers, knocked in six runs.

— Padres 4, Cardinals 2— San Diego has won eight games in a row; they’re not totally out of the playoff picture yet.
Manny Machado hit two home runs for the Padres.

— Word of the Day: Annihilate— totally destroy or obliterate.

— Football Trend of the Day: Last two years, Tennessee Titans are 12-5 ATS coming off a win.

— NC State 24, Virginia 21
State QB Armstrong played four years at Virginia; he returned Friday and got a win.
Wolfpack kicked a 33-yard FG after two unsportsmanlike conduct penalties on Virginia gave NC State excellent field position.

— Wisconsin 38, Purdue 17
Badgers led 21-3 at halftime.
Wisconsin converted 12-18 third down plays.

— Boise State 34, San Diego State 31
Aztecs lost a fumble on the 1-yard line on their first possession, missed a 40-yard FG when game was 17-17.

— Air Force 45, San Jose State 20
Air Force outscored the Spartans 28-0 in the second half.
Flyboys ran the football for 403 yards.

— Seven starters are out for the Ravens this week; they host the Colts, who 40 years ago called Baltimore home. Rookie QB Richardson is out for the Colts; Gardner Minshew gets the nod under center.

— Andy Dalton will start at QB for Carolina when they visit the Seahawks Sunday; two of the three rookie QB’s who started in Week 1 are hurt already, and Houston QB Stroud has been put on an “arm management program” which probably means he has a sore arm already.
 
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Weather Report

Week 4
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SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 23​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
RUTG at MICH12:00 PMRUTG +24.0
U 44.0		+500 +500
AUB at TAM12:00 PMAUB +9.0
O 51.5		+500 +500
SMU at TCU12:00 PMSMU +7.0+500
WKU at TROY12:00 PMTROY -3.5
O 56.5		+500 +500
ARMY at SYR12:00 PMARMY +13.5
O 50.0		+500 +500
FSU at CLEM12:00 PMFSU -2.0+500
VT at MRSH12:00 PMMRSH -6.0
U 41.5		+500 +500
OKLA at CIN12:00 PMOKLA -14.0+500
TLSA at NIU12:00 PMNIU -4.0
U 54.5		+500 +500
UK at VAN12:00 PMVAN +13.5+500
WMU at TOL01:30 PMTOL -21.5+500
GASO at BALL02:00 PMGASO -6.0+500
BYU at KU03:30 PMBYU +10.0
O 55.0		+500 +500
TTU at WVU03:30 PMTTU -6.0+500
DUKE at CONN03:30 PMDUKE -22.0+500
COLO at ORE03:30 PMCOLO +21.5+500
UCLA at UTAH03:30 PMUCLA +3.5
U 52.0		+500 +500
BC at LOU03:30 PMBC +14.0
U 54.5		+500 +500
FAU at ILL03:30 PMILL -16.0+500
MD at MSU03:30 PMMD -7.5+500
TAMC at ODU03:30 PMODU -26.5+500
UNM at MASS03:30 PMMASS -3.5+500
MISS at ALA03:30 PMMISS +7.0+500
MIA at TEM03:30 PMMIA -22.0+500
LT at NEB03:30 PMNEB -20.5+500
RICE at USF04:00 PMRICE -3.0+500
UTSA at TENN04:00 PMUTSA +24.5
O 59.5		+500 +500
OKST at ISU04:00 PMISU -3.5+500
EMU at JSU05:00 PMJSU -6.5
U 50.5		+500 +500
CMU at USA05:00 PMUSA -16.5+500
LIB at FIU06:30 PMLIB -10.0+500
GT at WAKE06:30 PMWAKE -3.5
U 58.5		+500 +500
CSU at MTU07:00 PMMTU -4.0
O 51.5		+500 +500
ORST at WSU07:00 PMWSU +3.0
O 57.5		+500 +500
ARK at LSU07:00 PMLSU -18.0
O 54.5		+500 +500
USM at ARST07:00 PMUSM -6.5+500
CHAR at FLA07:00 PMFLA -28.0+500
APP at WYO07:00 PMWYO -2.5
U 44.0		+500 +500
NICH at TULN07:00 PMNICH +38.0+500
SHSU at HOU07:00 PMSHSU +11.0
U 37.0		+500 +500
ARIZ at STAN07:00 PMARIZ -13.0
U 60.0		+500 +500
NEV at TXST07:00 PMTXST -17.0
U 59.0		+500 +500
TEX at BAY07:30 PMBAY +17.0+500
UAB at UGA07:30 PMUAB +41.0+500
MEM at MIZZ07:30 PMMIZZ -7.0+500
MINN at NW07:30 PMMINN -11.0+500
MSST at SOCAR07:30 PMSOCAR -6.5+500
BUFF at ULL07:30 PMULL -10.5+500
AKR at IU07:30 PMIU -17.0+500
OSU at ND07:30 PMND +3.0+500
IOWA at PSU07:30 PMIOWA +14.0
U 38.5		+500 +500
UNC at PITT08:00 PMUNC -7.0+500
UCF at KSU08:00 PMKSU -4.5
O 52.5		+500 +500
JMU at USU08:00 PMJMU -4.5+500
UNLV at UTEP09:00 PMUNLV +1.0+500
USC at ASU10:30 PMASU +34.5
O 62.0		+500 +500
CAL at WASH10:30 PMWASH -20.0+500
KENT at FRES10:30 PMKENT +27.5+500
NMSU at HAW11:59 PMO 55.5+500
 
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BEST BETS AUGUST THRU SEPT.

09/23/2023.............................11 - 19- 2.....................36.66%................................- 49.60
09/22/2023................................5 - 1............................83.33%................................+ 19.50
09/21/2023................................1 - 1........................... 50.00%.................................- 0.50
09/16/2023..............................17 - 13........................56.66%..................................+ 13.50
09/15/2023..............................4 - 1............................80.00%..................................+ 14.50
09/14/2023..............................0 - 3............................00.00%...................................- 16.50
09/09/2023............................18 - 15 -1....................54.54%..................................+ 8.50
09/08/2023.............................2 - 1.............................66.66%..................................+ 4.50
09/04/2023.............................2 - 0...........................100.00%..................................+ 10.00
09/03/2023.............................2 - 2............................50.00%...................................- 1.00
09/02/2023...........................25 - 20.........................55.55%...................................+ 15.00
09/01/2023.............................5 - 2............................71.42%...................................+ 14.00
08/26/2023.............................6 - 4............................60.00%...................................+ 8.00

TOTALS..................................98 - 82 - 3.......................54.44%..................................+ 39.90
 
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Sunday’s 6-pack:
Major league leaders in runs scored:
143— Ronald Acuna
125— Freddie Freeman/Mookie Betts
122— Matt Olson
115— Marcus Semien
110— Austin Riley
109— Corbin Carroll

Quote of the Day
“I thought the play was dead. I was yelling at somebody else on the side and then the ball’s coming back my way. I said, ‘Dang, that ain’t supposed to happen.’ I’m lucky I didn’t get ran over.”
Texas A&M coach Jimbo Fisher, who was on the field while an Auburn player ran a punt back 67 yards for a TD.

Sunday’s quiz
What city hosts the Holiday Bowl every December?

Saturday’s quiz
Jose Canseco was the first major leaguer to hit 40+ home runs and steal 40+ bases in the same season, in 1988.

Friday’s quiz
49ers QB Brock Purdy played his college football at Iowa State.

*****************************************

Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a college football Saturday…….​

— Florida State 31, Clemson 24 OT
Seminoles end 7-game losing skid vs Clemson.
Clemson missed a 29-yard FG with 1:45 left in regulation, with score 24-all.
Tigers outgained Florida State 429-311.

— Ohio State 17, Notre Dame 14
Buckeyes scored on 1-yard TD run with 0:01 left.
Game-winning drive was 65 yards, took 1:26.
Ohio State converted 10-17 third down plays.

— LSU 34, Arkansas 31
LSU kicked 20-yard FG with 0:05 left for the win.
LSU also threw 49-yard TD pass with 0:30 left in first half.
Arkansas led game 13-3 in second quarter.

— Utah 14, UCLA 7
Utes scored on a pick-6 0:12 into the game.
UCLA didn’t score until there was 3:39 left in game.
Utah is 4-0, and their starting QB Rising still hasn’t played this year.

— Northwestern 37, Minnesota 34 OT
Minnesota led this game 31-10 after the third quarter.
Wildcats threw an 11-yard TD pass to tie game with 0:02 left.
Northwestern QB Bryant was 33-49/396 passing, with 4 TD’s.

— Indiana 29, Akron 27 OT
Each team had ball four times in overtime.
Akron tied game on a 71-yard TD run with 3:34 left.
Hoosiers were favored by 16.5 points.

— Upsets of the Week:
Central Michigan (+16) 34, South Alabama 30
Northwestern (+11) 37, Minnesota 34 OT
West Virginia (+6) 20, Texas Tech 13
Arkansas State (+6) 44, Southern Miss 37
Georgia State (+4.5) 30, Coastal Carolina 17

— Word of the Day: Jocularity— causing lighthearted laughter and amusement.

— Oregon 42, Colorado 6
Game was 35-0 at halftime.
Oregon QB Nix was 28-33/269 passing, with two TD’s.
Colorado ran 58 plays for 199 yards; they had 106 penalty yards.

— Central Michigan 34, South Alabama 30
Jaguars upset Oklahoma State in Stillwater last week, then went home and got upset here.
Chippewas scored winning TD on a 4-yard run with 0:13 left.
South Alabama led 14-0 after the first quarter.

— Texas State 35, Nevada 24
Nevada led 17-0 at half; they had a 98-yard pick-6.
Texas State outgained the Wolf Pack, 574-353
Both teams turned ball over three times.

— Marshall 24, Virginia Tech 17— Thundering Herd was favored at home, but it is still a bad look for an ACC team to lose to a Sun Belt team.

— Alabama 24, Ole Miss 10
Ole Miss led 7-6 at halftime.
Rebels were 3-14 on third down, 3-4 on fourth down.
Alabama QB Milroe was 17-21/225 passing, with a TD.

— Washington State 38, Oregon State 35
Wazzu led 35-14 after three quarters.
Coogs’ QB Ward was 28-34/404 passing, with four TD’s.
TV people played the Bill Withers’ song, Just the Two of Us, as the game went to a commercial, in reference to these schools being left behind by the rest of the Pac-12.
 
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Week 5

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Trend Report
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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Since 1966, the six QB’s the Chicago Bears drafted in the first round
— Jim McMahon
— Jim Harbaugh
— Cade McNown
— Rex Grossman
— Mitch Trubisky
— Justin Fields

Quote of the Day
“I didn’t take anything positive out of it. It was awful. You sit down? You sit down on a play? You go right down? What happened? I thought you’re trying to win and make plays. You quit on a play? What is going on? It’s disgusting. I wouldn’t keep him. I’ve seen enough of Zach Wilson.”
Joe Namath, talking about Jets’ QB Zach Wilson

Tuesday’s quiz
Jets have won the Super Bowl once; who did they beat in that game?

Monday’s quiz
Sean Payton was a replacement player for the Chicago Bears during the 1987 NFL players’ strike.

Sunday’s quiz
San Diego hosts the Holiday Bowl every December.

*******************************************

Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but……..​

Eagles 25, Buccaneers 11
— Eagles outgained Tampa Bay, 472-174.
— Philadelphia converted 10-16 third down plays.
— Philly ran the football 40 times for 201 yards.
— Eagles won their first three games, scoring 25-34-25 points.
— Buccaneers’ first 8 drives: 36 plays, 104 yards, a FG and a safety.
— Eagles had four drives in 2nd half: 75-46-55-68 yards.
— Buccaneers are 16-18-3 ATS in last 37 games coming off a win.
— Tampa Bay hasn’t been 3-0 since 2005.

Bengals 19, Rams 16
— Ja’Marr Chase caught 12 passes for 141 yards.
— QB Burrow is playing with injured calf; he was 26-49/259 passing.
— Bengals are 8-5-1 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Cincinnati is 7-3-2 ATS in last 12 games vs NFC opponents.
— Rams have scored one TD on their last 19 drives.
— LA converted only one of 11 third down plays.
— Rams are 4-10-2 ATS in last 16 games vs AFC opponents.
— Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten road games.
Rams scored TD with 1:03 left to push the spread, second week in a row they scored in the last 2:00 to push the spread.

— So far this season, NFC West teams are 7-0-1 ATS outside their division.
NFC North teams are 2-7 ATS outside their division.
NFC East teams are 4-5 ATS outside their division.
AFC West teams are 3-7 ATS outside their division.
League-wide, home favorites are 2-6 ATS in divisional games.
League-wide, home underdogs are 3-4 ATS in divisional games.

— College football conference trends:
Nationwide, home favorites in conference games are 15-9 ATS.
Nationwide, home underdogs in conference games are 14-12 ATS.
AAC teams are 14-23 ATS outside the conference.
ACC non-conference favorites are 11-7 ATS.
Big X non-conference road favorites are 2-6 ATS.
Big 14 teams are 13-19 ATS outside the conference.
Pac-12 non-conference favorites are 13-7 ATS.
Mountain West non-conference road underdogs are 12-4 ATS.
SEC teams are 2-7 ATS in non-conference games away from home.
Sun Belt non-conference favorites are 8-5 ATS.

— Word of the Day: Patience— the capacity to accept or tolerate delay, trouble, or suffering without getting angry or upset.
Remember, you can’t be a doctor without patience.

— Jonathan Weitz is Clemson’s kicker; he was the backup kicker for four years, but this year he was studying for his Masters’ degree in Data Science and Analytics online at Clemson while living in Charleston— he wasn’t on the football team.
But Robert Gunn III missed three field goals and an extra point in the Tigers’ first three games this year, and Dabo Swinney came calling.
Weitz missed a 30-yard FG with 1:45 left Saturday against Florida State and the score tied. Clemson lost in overtime; Weitz has a job lined up in New York City in December. It isn’t as a kicker.

— Virginia’s kicker is a 34-year old ex-Marine. Matt Ganyard spent more than a decade as a Cobra helicopter pilot before returning to Charlottesville to pursue his MBA- he is married with two kids.

— Texas Longhorns have a kicker named Bert Auburn; you’d think the kid would go to school in the SEC. Imagine if he kicked at Alabama?

— Chicago Bears had $100,000 worth of equipment stolen from Soldier Field last week; the thieves tore down a security fence and drove the equipment out of a garage.
If the thieves had stolen Justin Fields’ helmet/shoulder pads, then they would’ve at least been helping the ball club.

— Sunday in Miami, the Dolphins were the first team to score 14+ points in every quarter of a game since the Detroit Lions in the 1957 NFL Championship Game vs Cleveland.
Yes, the Lions once played the Browns for the NFL title. Long time ago, though.

— From 2017-23, Mike Trout has played in 678 of the Angels’ 1,032 games, when he was 25-31 years old. One of the most important abilities is availability, which Trout doesn’t have a lot of.

— Sunday night in Las Vegas, the Raiders had a 4th-and-4 at the Pittsburgh 8-yard line with 2:25 to play, trailing 23-15; they kicked a field goal, wound up losing 23-18.
Since the 2-point conversion started in the NFL in 1994, the Raiders are the only team to kick a field goal in the last 3:00 of a game when they trailed by 8 points, when they had 4th down and 5 or less yards to go.
Passing up a 4th-and-4 doesn’t show a lot of faith in your offense.

— Happy 90th birthday to Hubie Brown, the great basketball coach who was inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame in 2005.
Coach Brown has been an excellent TV analyst for decades now; he still does 15 games a year for ESPN. Long, long time ago, fall of 1984, I met coach Brown before an exhibition game in Glens Falls— his Knicks were playing a game against the Bulls and a rookie named Michael Jordan.
I was an assistant high school coach back then, an analytics-based guy, and I asked coach Brown some questions about what numbers he used in coaching. He was very polite to me and gave me a few minutes, which I always appreciated.

Happy birthday, coach!!!
 
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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday’s games
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee (1-3)
— MTSU is 0-3 vs I-A teams, losing by 49-4-8 points.
— MTSU is minus-1 in turnovers (+12/+11 last two years).
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started six games the last two years.
— Blue Raiders are 5-7-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road dog.
— Blue Raiders are 21-17-1 ATS in last 39 conference games.
— MTSU won their bowl game the last two years.

Western Kentucky (2-2)
— WKU gave up 541 yards/game in its three I-A games.
— Hilltoppers are +5 in turnovers; last two years, were +10/+11.
— 7 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 56 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 14 games LY, threw for 4,744 yards, 40 TD’s.
— last 2+ years, WKU is 8-4 ATS as a home favorite.
— Hilltoppers are 12-4-1 ATS in last 17 conference games.
— WKU has been to a bowl the last four years (3-1).

— Hilltoppers are 7-1 ATS/5-3 SU in last eight meetings.
— MTSU is 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Western Kentucky.
— Over is 8-2 in last ten series games.

Temple @ Tulsa
Temple (2-2)
— Owls beat Akron 24-21, got crushed by two Power Five teams.
— Temple gave up 254-323 rushing yards in losses to Rutgers/Miami.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 40 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB started 10 games LY; he is Kurt Warner’s son.
— Temple is 2-9 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Owls are 8-15 ATS in last 23 conference games.
— Since start of ’22, Temple is minus-15 in turnovers (+3 previous 6 years)
— Temple hasn’t been to a bowl since 2019.

Tulsa (2-2)
— Tulsa beat NIU 22-14, also got crushed by two Power Five teams.
— 4 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line- two starters bolted to Auburn.
— frosh QB has completed 58.5% of his passes, thrown 5 TD’s, 5 INT’s.
— last four years, Tulsa is 4-9-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— last four years, Tulsa is 17-13-1 ATS in conference games.
— Tulsa is minus-4 in turnovers last year (minus-15 previous five years)
— Temple hasn’t been to a bowl since 2019.

— Tulsa beat Tulane last two years, 27-16/44-10
— Owls covered three of last four series games.
— Over is 3-2 in last five meetings.

Jacksonville State @ Sam Houston State
Jacksonville State (3-1)
— This is Jacksonville State’s first season in I-A football
— Coach is Rich Rodriguez (has coached West Va, Michigan, Arizona)
— In his career, Rodriguez is 38-45-1 ATS in road games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 43 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts.
— Gamecocks have +10 turnover ratio.
— JSU lost only road game, 30-16 (+13) at Coastal Carolina.
— Gamecocks have I-A wins over UTEP/Eastern Michigan.
— Last 3 years, Gamecocks were 24-11 SU, at I-AA level.

Sam Houston State (0-3)
— Bearkats lost first three games, by a combined 65-10.
— This is Sam Houston’s first season in I-A football
— Coach Keeler has been here for 10 years.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 50 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 22 starts.
— Bearkats have gained 443 yards total in three games.
— Last 3 years, Sam Houston was 26-5 SU, at I-AA level.

— Sam Houston (-16) hammered Jacksonville State 42-7 in 2021.

Friday’s games
Louisville @ NC State
Louisville (4-0)
— Louisville has ACC wins over Georgia Tech (39-34), BC (56-28).
— Cardinals gave up 488-427 total yards in the two games.
— New coach Brohm is a Louisville alum (66-44 as a HC)
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 150 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB started 12 games at Cal last year.
— since 2014, Louisville is 12-10 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Brohm is 30-32 ATS as a favorite.
— Cardinals went bowling five of last seven years (2-3).

NC State (3-1)
— NC State has I-A wins over UConn (24-14), Virginia (24-21)
— Wolfpack’s loss was 45-24 (+7.5) at home to Notre Dame.
— 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 63 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB Armstrong started 30 games at Virginia.
— since 2013, State is 8-11 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last five years, Wolfpack is 18-24-1 ATS in ACC games.
— State was outgained 384-319 in LW’s close win at Virginia.
— NC State won three of last five meetings.
— Cardinals are 3-2 ATS in last five visits to Raleigh.
— Virginia was 2-1 vs Louisville last 3 years; Armstrong was UVa’s QB.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight series games.

Louisiana Tech @ UTEP
Louisiana Tech (2-3)
— last 2+ years, Tech is 3-9/3-9/2-3.
— In their losses TY, Bulldogs gave up 223.3 rushing yards/game.
— Tech gave up 479.3 TY/game in its three losses.
— Tech’s one I-A win: 22-17 (-11) over FIU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 76 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started 29 games at Boise State.
— Tech is 5-15 ATS in their last 20 road games.
— Bulldogs haven’t been to a bowl since 2020.

UTEP (1-4)
— UTEP is 0-4 vs I-A teams; they beat a I-AA team, 28-14.
— Miners lost last three games, giving up 38-31-45 points.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 122 starts back on offensive line
— senior QB has 29 starts.
— Under Dimel, Miners are 11-17 ATS at home.
— Last 3+ years, UTEP is 12-9 ATS in conference games.
— Last 5+ years, UTEP is minus-49 in turnovers (minus-6 TY).
— Miners have played in one bowl since 2014 (2021 New Mexico Bowl)

— Tech is 9-1 SU/5-5 ATS in last ten series games.
— Bulldogs are 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to El Paso.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.

Utah @ Oregon State
Utah (4-0)
— Utah QB Rising (knee) missed first four games (check status)
— Utes (-5) beat Florida 24-11, Baylor 20-13 (-7.5), Utah 14-7 (-3.5)
— Utes played two QBs so far; one is more of a runner.
— 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 84 starts back on offensive line; high expectations
— senior QB (Rising) has started 24 games, none this year.
— last 4+ years, Utes are 38-13 SU.
— last two years, Utah was 2-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— Since 2016, Utah is 42-22 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— Utah lost last four bowls, after Whittingham started out 11-1 in bowls.

Oregon State (3-1)
— OSU lost 38-35 at Wazzu LW, giving up 422 passing yards.
— Beavers scored 42-26 points in first two I-A wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 109 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 28 games at Clemson.
— Under Smith, OSU is 10-2 ATS as a home favorite.
— Beavers are 12-6 ATS inlets 18 games coming off a loss.
— OSU’s only loss was 38-35; they allowed 11 ppg in their wins.
— Beavers are 2-3 SU in last five bowls (were favored in all five).

— Utah won six of last seven series games.
— Utes are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Corvallis.
— last three meetings went over the total.

Cincinnati @ BYU
Cincinnati (2-2)
— Cincinnati’s only I-A win: 27-21 (+6.5) at Pittsburgh.
— Bearcats lost last two games, 31-24/20-6.
— 3 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 20 starts back on offensive line; not much experience.
— senior QB Jones started 7 games at Arizona State LY.
— last 6+ years, Cincinnati is 9-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— New coach Satterfield is 10-13-2 ATS as a road underdog
— Cincinnati lost its last three bowls; favorites covered 4 of their last 5 bowls.

Brigham Young (3-1)
— BYU lost its Big X debut 38-27 at Kansas LW.
— 31-10 SU last 3+ years; Kansas held them to 9 YR.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 66 starts back on offensive line— added transfers on OL
— senior QB Slovis threw 1,268 passes, 68 TD’s at USC/Pitt.
— BYU is 1-5 ATS in last six games as a home favorite.
— Last three games, Cougars ran 76 times for 132 yards.
— BYU is 3-2 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.

— These teams haven’t met since 2016.
— This is their first meeting as Big X rivals.
 
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Thursday’s 6-pack:
best matchups for ACC-SEC basketball challenge in late November:
— Tennessee-North Carolina
— LSU-Syracuse
— Florida-Wake Forest
— Miami-Kentucky
— Duke-Arkansas
— Clemson-Alabama

Quote of the Day
“That’s why I’m going to shut it down. … I’m going to go get my body patched up again for about the 80th time and I’m going to try to go get healthy and I’m in no rush.”
Terry Francona

Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, what number did he wear?

Wednesday’s quiz
In the old TV show Las Vegas, June Lockhart played James Caan’s mother.

Tuesday’s quiz
Jets have won the Super Bowl once; they beat the Baltimore Colts 16-7 in that game- the Colts were in the NFL back then, the Jets in the AFL, before the leagues merged.

********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..​

— Wednesday was the Cleveland Guardians’ last home game this season, the last home game for manager Terry Francona, who is retiring after this season.
Francona has had a great career as a manager; he seems to be universally loved by people who cross paths with him, especially the Cleveland TV guys. I’d like for him to get job at FOX or ESPN, so we can learn from him over the next few seasons.
Francona’s managerial career:
1997-2000— Phillies 285-363, not so good
2004-11— Red Sox— 744-552, won two World Series
2013-23— Indians/Guardians— 919-755, won AL pennant in 2016
This is a Hall of Fame career; hopefully, he’ll get voted in.
Oh yeah, he also managed the Birmingham Barons the year Michael Jordan played for the Barons. That had to be quite an experience.

— It is early in the season, but here is so info on how NFL teams are doing on drives that start 75+ yards from the goal line— both offense and defense.
Lot of times, teams score on short drives or on defensive TD’s, but can an offense drive 75+ yards for a TD? That way, a team can still score points, even if they don’t get lot of turnovers.

— Offenses with best points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Dolphins 4.23
Chargers 3.12
Cowboys 2.93
Mariners 2.60
Vikings 2.54

— Defenses with best points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Browns 0.04
Steelers 0.54— Defensive TD’s count towards these numbers.
Bills 0.68
Cowboys 0.69
Patriots 0.81

— Offenses with worst points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Jets 0.22
Giants 0.67— They gave up a defensive TD and a TD on a blocked FG.
Commanders 0.73
Browns 0.77— Gave up two defensive TD’s to the Steelers
Jaguars 0.89

— Defenses with worst points/drive on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Broncos 3.61— They’ve given up 105 points in last two games.
Chargers 3.13
Raiders 3.00
Bears 3.00
Seahawks 2.83

— Chargers won 28-24 in Minnesota Sunday, despite losing field position by 16 yards; you almost never see a team win a game with such a disadvantage in field position.

— Word of the Day: Impasse— a situation in which no progress is possible, especially because of disagreement.

— Was reminded Monday night that when the Rams lose, I need to stay away from social media, because there are a lot of front-running, disloyal jerks out there.
Rams lose to the Bengals 19-16 Monday night, and all of a sudden, there are a lot of geniuses on Twitter ripping Sean McVay for various things, because hey, they know more about football than he does.
Oy.

— There was a big trade in the NBA Wednesday:
Milwaukee got Damian Lillard— he is 33 and has $200M left on his contract.
Portland got Jrue Holiday and DeAndre Ayton- they figure to trade free agent-to-be Holiday.
Phoenix got Jusuf Nurkic
Does this trade make the Bucks the preseason favorite for this year?

— Miami Marlins are contending for a playoff spot, the Mets have had a dismal season and right now, the Marlins are steamed because their game in New York Tuesday was rained out, because the Mets’ ground crew didn’t put the tarp on the field at Citi Field Saturday and it rained a lot, so the field was supposedly still unplayable Tuesday.
Miami wanted to use P Braxton Garrett Tuesday and then again Sunday, the last day of the season, but now they won’t be able to, unless he goes on three days’ rest Sunday. Not ideal.
The Mets say they just made a mistake, nothing intentional about it.

— Bill Dickey was a Hall of Fame catcher a long, long time ago; he lived in Little Rock, AR, where for a while, his paperboy was a young man named Brooks Robinson.

— The father of Diamondbacks’ OF Alek Thomas was the strength coach for the White Sox for like 20 years, so had to be weird this week for Thomas to be playing against the Pale Hose, like coming home again.

— Michigan State officially fired football coach Mel Tucker, which should keep lawyers for both sides busy for a while. Tucker was making $9.5M a year; they fired him for cause, ‘cuz they do not want to give him any more money.

— Glad to hear that the writers’ strike in Hollywood is over; now TV shows/movies can resume production.
 
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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 28​

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
MTU at WKU07:30 PMMTU +5.5
O 60.0		+500 +500
TEM at TLSA07:30 PMTEM +3.0
U 55.5		+500 +500
JSU at SHSU08:00 PMJSU -6.5
U 36.0		+500 +500
 
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Completed Picks​

Past Completed Picks
DateW-L-T%UnitsRecord
09/28/20231-5-016.67%-2250Detail
09/23/202336-40-547.53%-4000Detail
09/22/20236-2-075.00%+1900Detail
09/21/20231-1-050.00%-50Detail
09/16/202335-26-057.38%+3200Detail
09/15/20234-2-066.67%+900Detail
09/14/20231-3-025.00%-1150Detail
09/09/202328-34-145.24%-4700Detail
09/08/20233-1-075.00%+950Detail
09/04/20232-0-0100.00%+1000Detail
09/03/20233-3-050.00%-150Detail
09/02/202353-42-155.73%+3400Detail
09/01/20236-6-050.00%-300Detail
08/26/20239-5-064.29%+1750Detail
 
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BEST BETS AUGUST THRU SEPT.

09/28/2023................................1 - 4............................20.00%...............................- 17.00
09/23/2023.............................11 - 19- 2.....................36.66%................................- 49.60
09/22/2023................................5 - 1............................83.33%................................+ 19.50
09/21/2023................................1 - 1........................... 50.00%.................................- 0.50
09/16/2023..............................17 - 13........................56.66%..................................+ 13.50
09/15/2023..............................4 - 1............................80.00%..................................+ 14.50
09/14/2023..............................0 - 3............................00.00%...................................- 16.50
09/09/2023............................18 - 15 -1....................54.54%..................................+ 8.50
09/08/2023.............................2 - 1.............................66.66%..................................+ 4.50
09/04/2023.............................2 - 0...........................100.00%..................................+ 10.00
09/03/2023.............................2 - 2............................50.00%...................................- 1.00
09/02/2023...........................25 - 20.........................55.55%...................................+ 15.00
09/01/2023.............................5 - 2............................71.42%...................................+ 14.00
08/26/2023.............................6 - 4............................60.00%...................................+ 8.00

TOTALS..................................99 - 86 - 3.......................53.51%..................................+ 22.90
 
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Armadillo Sports

— Jacksonville State 35, Sam Houston State 28 OT
Jax State tied game on a 28-yard TD pass/2-point conversion with 0:13 left.
Sam Houston led game 21-7 at halftime.
JSU RB Jackson carried ball 13 times for 129 yards and a TD.

— Tulsa 48, Temple 26
Tulsa ran for 289 yards, converted 9-15 on third down.
Temple QB EJ Warner was 27-49/269, with two TD passes.

— Western Kentucky 31, Middle Tennessee 10
Hilltoppers led 23-3 at halftime.
WKU converted 10-19 third down plays.
 
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