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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 5
Saturday’s top 13 games
Clemson @ Syracuse
Clemson (2-2)
— Tigers are 0-2 in ACC, losing 28-7 at Duke, 31-24 in OT to Florida State
— Last 10 years, Clemson was 121-18 SU.
— Clemson missed 30-yard FG with score tied and 1:45 left LW.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 99 starts back on OL, with four returning starters.
— soph QB threw 100 passes LY, but started only once.
— Tigers are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
— last 5+ years, Clemson is 30-14-1 ATS in ACC games (0-2 TY).
— last ten years, Clemson is 7-5-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Clemson lost three of its last four bowls SU.
Syracuse (4-0)
— Syracuse scored 37 ppg in winning its three I-A games.
— Syracuse was +5 in turnovers in those games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 47 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 21 games.
— under Babers, Syracuse is 12-13 ATS as a home underdog.
— Syracuse is 14-12 ATS in its last 26 ACC games.
— Orange are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
— Syracuse won four of its last five bowls (were favored in 1 of 5 games).
— Clemson won 9 of last 10 series games (2-7 ATS in last nine)
— Tigers are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to the Carrier Dome.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Florida @ Kentucky
Florida (3-1)
— Gators lost 24-11 at Utah, beat Tennessee 29-16/UNCC 22-7.
— since 2018, Florida is 8-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 32 games at Wisconsin
— Last 2+ years, Gators went 6-7/6-7/3-1 SU.
— in his career, Napier is 16-4-1 ATS as an underdog.
— All three of Florida’s I-A games stayed under total.
Kentucky (4-0)
— Kentucky scored 40.7 ppg in beating three I-A stiffs.
— Wildcats (-13) won SEC opener 45-28 at Vanderbilt LY.
— Kentucky held its I-A opponents to 72.7 rushing yards/game.
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line (four starters back)
— senior QB started 26 games at NC State.
— Under Stoops, Kentucky is 34-24-2 ATS at home.
— Kentucky is 11-6 ATS in last 17 SEC games.
— Wildcats won four of their last five bowls (lost 21-0 LY).
— Kentucky won last two meetings 26-16/20-13
— Before that, Florida had won 23 of previous 24 series games.
— Gators are 8-5 ATS in last 13 visits to Lexington (0-3 ATS last three).
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
USC @ Colorado
USC (4-0)
— USC won its first four games, scoring 55 ppg (2-2 ATS).
— Trojans won their first road game, 42-28 (-34) at ASU LW.
— USC has 16 sacks in its four wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, is favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— In his career, Riley is 8-14-1 ATS as a road favorite, 2-3 at USC.
— last 3+ years, Trojans are 11-16 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Their last bowl win was 52-49 over Penn State in 2016 Rose Bowl
Colorado (3-1)
— Colorado is 3-1, scoring 36+ points in all three wins.
— Buffs also allowed 35+ points in three of the four games.
— Colorado is 2-0 SU at home (36-14 Nebraska/43-35 Colorado State).
— Two-way star Hunter isn’t expected to play (check status)
— Deion Sanders is the new coach (27-6 at I-AA Jackson State)
— 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 44 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB Sanders started 26 games at Jackson State
— Colorado is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a dog (0-0 TY).
— Buffs are 2-8 ATS in last ten Pac-12 games.
— Colorado’s new OC was a good head coach at Kent State.
— Colorado hasn’t gone bowling since 2020; their last bowl win, 2004.
— USC won last thirteen series games (4-1 ATS in last five)
— Trojans are 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Boulder.
— Over is 2-0-1 in last three meetings.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas (@ Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)
Texas A&M (3-1)
— Aggies scored 52-33-47-27 points in its 3-1 start.
— A&M lost 48-33 at Miami, giving up 374 PY
— A&M allowed total of 23 points in its wins.
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— QB Weigman (foot) is OFY; soph Johnson started 3 games LY.
— under Fisher, Aggies are 25-8 ATS as a favorite.
— in his career, Fisher is 68-52-3 ATS as a favorite.
— last 2+ years, A&M is 8-9-1 ATS in SEC games.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.
Arkansas (2-2)
— Hogs lost their last two games, 38-31/34-31.
— Arkansas’ only I-A win: 28-6 (-38) over Kent State.
— Hogs allowed 291 or less yards in their three wins.
— Arkansas gave up 509 TY last week (320 PY)
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 78 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 24 starts
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 16-9-2 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 13-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Razorbacks won three of their last four bowls, scoring 37 ppg.
— Texas A&M won 10 of last 11 meetings.
— Arkansas, though, is 4-0-1 ATS in last five meetings.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
South Florida @ Navy
South Florida (2-2)
— last 4+ years, USF is 10-39 SU/24-23-1 ATS
— Bulls lost only road game, 41-24 (+12) @ WKU.
— new HC Golesh was OC at Tennessee last two years.
— USF gave up 336+ PY in three of its four games.
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 40 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 7 starts.
— last 3+ years, Bulls are 8-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last 3+ years, Bulls are 5-7-1 ATS out of conference.
— USF hasn’t been to a bowl since 2018.
Navy (1-2)
— Navy lost 42-3 to Notre Dame in Ireland, 28-24 at Memphis.
— Navy is 12-25 SU last 3+ years; new coach was DC last year.
— Navy’s only win was 24-0 over a I-AA team.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- improvement is expected.
— senior QB started 8 games LY.
— since 2016, Navy is 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— Navy is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 AAC games.
— Last 5+ years, Middies are +17 in turnovers.
— Navy hasn’t been in a bowl since their 11-2 season in 2019.
— These teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Home team won/covered last three series games.
Illinois @ Purdue
Illinois (2-2)
— Illini lost its only road game, 34-23 (+3.5) at Kansas.
— Illinois allowed 28+ points in three of its four games.
— Last year was Illinois’ first winning season since 2011.
— Illinois losses this year; 34-23 at Kansas, 30-13 to Penn State.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB started one game at Ole Miss.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Bielema is 21-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 12-7 ATS in conference games.
— Illinois is 3-2 in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of the 5 games.
Purdue (1-3)
— Purdue allowed 39-35-38 points in its three losses.
— Boilers gave up 487-455-388 total yards in the losses.
— Purdue’s one win: 24-17 at 1-3 Virginia Tech.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started five games at Texas.
— Purdue is 5-14 ATS in its last 17 home games.
— Boilers are 10-16 ATS in last 25 conference games.
— Purdue are -4 in turnovers; they hasn’t finished year with +TO ratio since 2017.
— Purdue won 14 of last 18 meetings.
— Illini covered three of last four visits to Ross-Ade Stadium.
— Under is 4-1-1 in last six series games.
Georgia @ Auburn
Georgia (4-0)
— First road game this season for Georgia.
— Dawgs won SEC opener 24-14 (-27) over South Carolina.
— Since 2017, Georgia is 77-10 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— New QB for Georgia; he is 93-128/1,184 passing, with 6 tD’s, one INT.
— Under Smart, Dawgs are 19-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last two years, Georgia is 12-7 ATS in SEC games.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
Auburn (3-1)
— Auburn was outgained 402-200 in first loss LW, 27-10 @ Texas A&M
— Tigers beat UMass 59-14/Cal Bears 14-10 for their I-A wins.
— Last 3+ years, Auburn is 20-20 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 25 games at Michigan State.
— In his career, Freeze is 25-10 ATS as an underdog.
— Last ten years, Auburn is 10-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Freeze is 9-4 ATS as a home dog.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Freeze is Auburn’s third coach in 4 years.
— Georgia won/covered nine of last ten series games.
— Dawgs are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Auburn.
— Under is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
Kansas @ Texas
Kansas (4-0)
— Jayhawks has three I-A wins: 34-23/31-24/38-27.
— Kansas won its only road game, 31-24 (-28) @ Nevada.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Leipold is 10-18-1 as a road underdog.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 8-10-1 ATS in Big X games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 5-2-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— Kansas won 3 of last 4 bowls (lost 55-53 (+2.5) to Arkansas LY)
Texas (4-0)
— Texas won its first three games, scoring 37-34-31-38 points.
— Road team covered all four of their games.
— Texas is 17-12 SU last 2+ years, after going 25-12 from 2018-20.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 10 games last year.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 10-9 ATS at home, 4-3 on road.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 24-17 ATS as home favorite.
— since 2014, Texas is 19-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 9-10 ATS in Big X games.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
— Texas is 16-2 in last 18 series games (4-2 in last six)
— Jayhawks covered four of last five visits to Austin.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Boise State @ Memphis
Boise State (2-2)
— Boise State is 1-2 vs I-A teams, scoring 19-16 points in losses.
— Boise gave up 568-530 TY in those two games.
— Broncos have given up 512.3 yards/game vs I-A opponents.
— Broncos won MW opener 34-31 at San Diego State LW.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— since 2017, Boise is 8-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Broncos are 1-6 ATS in last seven non-conference games.
— Last 6+ years, Boise is +31 in turnovers (even TY).
Memphis (3-1)
— Tigers scored 37-28-27 points in three I-A games.
— Tigers lost 34-27 to Mizzou LW, outgained 542-399.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line- 3 starters are back.
— junior QB has 24 career starts
— under Silverfield, Memphis is 6-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Silverfield, Memphis is 8-15 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2019, Tigers are 10-9 ATS in non-conference games.
— Tigers have been bowl eligible nine years in row (’21 bowl cancelled)
— These two teams haven’t met this century.
— Since 2020, Mountain West teams are 6-3 ATS vs AAC opponents.
LSU @ Ole Miss
LSU (3-1)
— LSU won first two SEC games. 41-14 at Miss State, 34-31 vs Arkansas.
— Tigers (-2) lost 45-24 to Florida State.
— Tigers gave up 494-201-426 yards in its I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 43 starts, 29 of them at Arizona State.
— under Kelly, LSU is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 30-28-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2017, LSU is 33-20-1 ATS in SEC games.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.
Ole Miss (3-1)
— Rebels were outgained 356-301 in 24-10 loss at Alabama LW
— Ole Miss scored 37-48 points in its I-A wins.
— Rebels ran ball for 89-299-56 yards in its I-A games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB started 12 games last year.
— In his college career, Kiffin is 22-19 ATS at coming off a loss.
— In his college career, Kiffin is 3-8 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 11-15 ATS in the SEC.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
— LSU won six of last seven meetings.
— Tigers are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Oxford.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
South Carolina @ Tennessee
South Carolina (2-2)
— South Carolina is 1-2 vs I-A teams, losing 31-17/24-14.
— Gamecocks beat Miss State 37-30 LW for its one I-A win.
— Carolina allowed 471.3 yards/game in its three I-A games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they added two I-AA transfers, too.
— Junior QB has 30 starts, 13 of them at Oklahoma.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 9-9 ATS in the SEC.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 4-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— SC’s new offensive coordinator has been an OC in the NFL.
— Carolina is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls.
Tennessee (3-1)
— Tennessee lost its SEC opener, 29-16 at Florida.
— Gators held Tennessee to 100 RY in that game.
— Vols scored 45-49 points in wins over I-A stiffs.
— Vols are 14-3 SU in last 17 games (27-33 from 2017-21)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB has nine starts.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 8-9 ATS inn SEC games.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
— Tennessee won/covered three of last four series games.
— Gamecocks are 7-4-1 ATS in last 12 visits to Knoxville.
— Last four meetings went over the total.
San Diego State @ Air Force
San Diego State (2-3)
— Aztecs lost last three games, giving up 35-26-34 points.
— Aztecs’ only I-A win: 20-13 (-2.5) over Ohio U.
— San Diego State gave up 254 YR to UCLA, 241 to Boise State.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Aztecs are 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Last three years, San Diego State was 10-11-1 ATS in MW games.
— Aztecs are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
Air Force (4-0)
— Air Force’s I-A wins are by 10-18-25 points.
— last 4+ years, Air Force is 38-11 SU, 3-0 in bowls.
— Falcons have run ball for 329.2 yards/game vs I-A foes.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has thrown 12 passes, run ball 54 times so far.
— Air Force has been favored in 37 of its last 48 games.
— Air Force is 13-8 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
— since 2019, Flyboys are 19-11 ATS in Mountain West games.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— San Diego State won nine of last ten series games.
— Aztecs covered their last five visits to Colorado Springs.
— Under is 9-3 in last 12 meetings.
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Alabama (3-1)
— Alabama allowed 7-3-10 points in its three wins.
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— Alabama is 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite
— Crimson Tide won only road game, 17-3 (-34) at South Florida.
— Alabama is +1 in turnovers since start of LY (+76 from 2015-21)
— Alabama is 8-10-1 ATS in its last 19 SEC games.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
Mississippi State (2-2)
— New coach TY after Mike Leach passed away last year.
— Miss State lost first two SEC games, giving up 41-37 points.
— Bulldogs gave up 431-530-432 TY in its I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has started 32 games.
— MSU threw for 487 yards in LW’s 37-30 loss at South Carolina.
— Bulldogs are 14-22 ATS in last 36 SEC games.
— Miss State gave up 995 passing yards in its three I-A games.
— Bulldogs are 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.
— Alabama won last 15 series games (7-1 ATS last eight).
— Crimson Tide is 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Starkville.
— Under is 13-2-1 in last sixteen meetings.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 5
Saturday’s top 13 games
Clemson @ Syracuse
Clemson (2-2)
— Tigers are 0-2 in ACC, losing 28-7 at Duke, 31-24 in OT to Florida State
— Last 10 years, Clemson was 121-18 SU.
— Clemson missed 30-yard FG with score tied and 1:45 left LW.
— 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 99 starts back on OL, with four returning starters.
— soph QB threw 100 passes LY, but started only once.
— Tigers are 6-7 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
— last 5+ years, Clemson is 30-14-1 ATS in ACC games (0-2 TY).
— last ten years, Clemson is 7-5-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Clemson lost three of its last four bowls SU.
Syracuse (4-0)
— Syracuse scored 37 ppg in winning its three I-A games.
— Syracuse was +5 in turnovers in those games.
— 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 47 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has started 21 games.
— under Babers, Syracuse is 12-13 ATS as a home underdog.
— Syracuse is 14-12 ATS in its last 26 ACC games.
— Orange are 11-4 ATS in last 15 games coming off a win.
— Syracuse won four of its last five bowls (were favored in 1 of 5 games).
— Clemson won 9 of last 10 series games (2-7 ATS in last nine)
— Tigers are 1-3 ATS in last four visits to the Carrier Dome.
— Under is 6-1 in last seven meetings.
Florida @ Kentucky
Florida (3-1)
— Gators lost 24-11 at Utah, beat Tennessee 29-16/UNCC 22-7.
— since 2018, Florida is 8-1 ATS as an underdog.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 74 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 32 games at Wisconsin
— Last 2+ years, Gators went 6-7/6-7/3-1 SU.
— in his career, Napier is 16-4-1 ATS as an underdog.
— All three of Florida’s I-A games stayed under total.
Kentucky (4-0)
— Kentucky scored 40.7 ppg in beating three I-A stiffs.
— Wildcats (-13) won SEC opener 45-28 at Vanderbilt LY.
— Kentucky held its I-A opponents to 72.7 rushing yards/game.
— 10 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 125 starts back on offensive line (four starters back)
— senior QB started 26 games at NC State.
— Under Stoops, Kentucky is 34-24-2 ATS at home.
— Kentucky is 11-6 ATS in last 17 SEC games.
— Wildcats won four of their last five bowls (lost 21-0 LY).
— Kentucky won last two meetings 26-16/20-13
— Before that, Florida had won 23 of previous 24 series games.
— Gators are 8-5 ATS in last 13 visits to Lexington (0-3 ATS last three).
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
USC @ Colorado
USC (4-0)
— USC won its first four games, scoring 55 ppg (2-2 ATS).
— Trojans won their first road game, 42-28 (-34) at ASU LW.
— USC has 16 sacks in its four wins.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 95 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has started 21 games, is favored to win Heisman Trophy.
— In his career, Riley is 8-14-1 ATS as a road favorite, 2-3 at USC.
— last 3+ years, Trojans are 11-16 ATS in Pac-12 games.
— USC is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 3 of 5 games)
— Their last bowl win was 52-49 over Penn State in 2016 Rose Bowl
Colorado (3-1)
— Colorado is 3-1, scoring 36+ points in all three wins.
— Buffs also allowed 35+ points in three of the four games.
— Colorado is 2-0 SU at home (36-14 Nebraska/43-35 Colorado State).
— Two-way star Hunter isn’t expected to play (check status)
— Deion Sanders is the new coach (27-6 at I-AA Jackson State)
— 6 starters back on offense, 3 on defense
— 44 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB Sanders started 26 games at Jackson State
— Colorado is 9-6 ATS last 15 games as a dog (0-0 TY).
— Buffs are 2-8 ATS in last ten Pac-12 games.
— Colorado’s new OC was a good head coach at Kent State.
— Colorado hasn’t gone bowling since 2020; their last bowl win, 2004.
— USC won last thirteen series games (4-1 ATS in last five)
— Trojans are 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Boulder.
— Over is 2-0-1 in last three meetings.
Texas A&M vs Arkansas (@ Cowboys Stadium, Arlington, TX)
Texas A&M (3-1)
— Aggies scored 52-33-47-27 points in its 3-1 start.
— A&M lost 48-33 at Miami, giving up 374 PY
— A&M allowed total of 23 points in its wins.
— 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense
— 91 starts back on offensive line.
— QB Weigman (foot) is OFY; soph Johnson started 3 games LY.
— under Fisher, Aggies are 25-8 ATS as a favorite.
— in his career, Fisher is 68-52-3 ATS as a favorite.
— last 2+ years, A&M is 8-9-1 ATS in SEC games.
— A&M won its last three bowls, scoring 52-24-41 points.
Arkansas (2-2)
— Hogs lost their last two games, 38-31/34-31.
— Arkansas’ only I-A win: 28-6 (-38) over Kent State.
— Hogs allowed 291 or less yards in their three wins.
— Arkansas gave up 509 TY last week (320 PY)
— 4 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 78 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB has 24 starts
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 16-9-2 ATS in SEC games.
— Under Pittman, Arkansas is 13-6 ATS as an underdog.
— Razorbacks won three of their last four bowls, scoring 37 ppg.
— Texas A&M won 10 of last 11 meetings.
— Arkansas, though, is 4-0-1 ATS in last five meetings.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
South Florida @ Navy
South Florida (2-2)
— last 4+ years, USF is 10-39 SU/24-23-1 ATS
— Bulls lost only road game, 41-24 (+12) @ WKU.
— new HC Golesh was OC at Tennessee last two years.
— USF gave up 336+ PY in three of its four games.
— 4 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 40 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has 7 starts.
— last 3+ years, Bulls are 8-8-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— last 3+ years, Bulls are 5-7-1 ATS out of conference.
— USF hasn’t been to a bowl since 2018.
Navy (1-2)
— Navy lost 42-3 to Notre Dame in Ireland, 28-24 at Memphis.
— Navy is 12-25 SU last 3+ years; new coach was DC last year.
— Navy’s only win was 24-0 over a I-AA team.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 51 starts back on offensive line- improvement is expected.
— senior QB started 8 games LY.
— since 2016, Navy is 7-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— Navy is 23-9 ATS in its last 32 AAC games.
— Last 5+ years, Middies are +17 in turnovers.
— Navy hasn’t been in a bowl since their 11-2 season in 2019.
— These teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Home team won/covered last three series games.
Illinois @ Purdue
Illinois (2-2)
— Illini lost its only road game, 34-23 (+3.5) at Kansas.
— Illinois allowed 28+ points in three of its four games.
— Last year was Illinois’ first winning season since 2011.
— Illinois losses this year; 34-23 at Kansas, 30-13 to Penn State.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 55 starts back on offensive line.
— new QB started one game at Ole Miss.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 6-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Bielema is 21-16-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— under Bielema, Illinois is 12-7 ATS in conference games.
— Illinois is 3-2 in last five bowls; they were underdog in 4 of the 5 games.
Purdue (1-3)
— Purdue allowed 39-35-38 points in its three losses.
— Boilers gave up 487-455-388 total yards in the losses.
— Purdue’s one win: 24-17 at 1-3 Virginia Tech.
— 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB started five games at Texas.
— Purdue is 5-14 ATS in its last 17 home games.
— Boilers are 10-16 ATS in last 25 conference games.
— Purdue are -4 in turnovers; they hasn’t finished year with +TO ratio since 2017.
— Purdue won 14 of last 18 meetings.
— Illini covered three of last four visits to Ross-Ade Stadium.
— Under is 4-1-1 in last six series games.
Georgia @ Auburn
Georgia (4-0)
— First road game this season for Georgia.
— Dawgs won SEC opener 24-14 (-27) over South Carolina.
— Since 2017, Georgia is 77-10 SU
— 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— New QB for Georgia; he is 93-128/1,184 passing, with 6 tD’s, one INT.
— Under Smart, Dawgs are 19-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last two years, Georgia is 12-7 ATS in SEC games.
— Dawgs won their last six bowl games (4-2 ATS)
Auburn (3-1)
— Auburn was outgained 402-200 in first loss LW, 27-10 @ Texas A&M
— Tigers beat UMass 59-14/Cal Bears 14-10 for their I-A wins.
— Last 3+ years, Auburn is 20-20 SU.
— 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
— 92 starts back on offensive line
— junior QB started 25 games at Michigan State.
— In his career, Freeze is 25-10 ATS as an underdog.
— Last ten years, Auburn is 10-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— In his career, Freeze is 9-4 ATS as a home dog.
— Auburn is 1-4 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
— Freeze is Auburn’s third coach in 4 years.
— Georgia won/covered nine of last ten series games.
— Dawgs are 4-2 ATS in last six visits to Auburn.
— Under is 8-2 in last ten meetings.
Kansas @ Texas
Kansas (4-0)
— Jayhawks has three I-A wins: 34-23/31-24/38-27.
— Kansas won its only road game, 31-24 (-28) @ Nevada.
— 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 133 starts back on offensive line; four starters are back
— junior QB has started 13 games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 4-8 ATS as a road underdog.
— in his career, Leipold is 10-18-1 as a road underdog.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 8-10-1 ATS in Big X games.
— under Leipold, Kansas is 5-2-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Kansas was 6-7 LY, going to their first bowl since 2008.
— Kansas won 3 of last 4 bowls (lost 55-53 (+2.5) to Arkansas LY)
Texas (4-0)
— Texas won its first three games, scoring 37-34-31-38 points.
— Road team covered all four of their games.
— Texas is 17-12 SU last 2+ years, after going 25-12 from 2018-20.
— 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 101 starts back on offensive line
— soph QB started 10 games last year.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 10-9 ATS at home, 4-3 on road.
— In his career, Sarkisian is 24-17 ATS as home favorite.
— since 2014, Texas is 19-22-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Sarkisian, Texas is 9-10 ATS in Big X games.
— Texas is 4-1 in last five bowls; they were underdog is 3 of the 4 wins.
— Texas is 16-2 in last 18 series games (4-2 in last six)
— Jayhawks covered four of last five visits to Austin.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Boise State @ Memphis
Boise State (2-2)
— Boise State is 1-2 vs I-A teams, scoring 19-16 points in losses.
— Boise gave up 568-530 TY in those two games.
— Broncos have given up 512.3 yards/game vs I-A opponents.
— Broncos won MW opener 34-31 at San Diego State LW.
— 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 80 starts back on offensive line.
— soph QB has started 10 games.
— since 2017, Boise is 8-3 ATS as a road underdog.
— Broncos are 1-6 ATS in last seven non-conference games.
— Last 6+ years, Boise is +31 in turnovers (even TY).
Memphis (3-1)
— Tigers scored 37-28-27 points in three I-A games.
— Tigers lost 34-27 to Mizzou LW, outgained 542-399.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line- 3 starters are back.
— junior QB has 24 career starts
— under Silverfield, Memphis is 6-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— under Silverfield, Memphis is 8-15 ATS as a favorite.
— since 2019, Tigers are 10-9 ATS in non-conference games.
— Tigers have been bowl eligible nine years in row (’21 bowl cancelled)
— These two teams haven’t met this century.
— Since 2020, Mountain West teams are 6-3 ATS vs AAC opponents.
LSU @ Ole Miss
LSU (3-1)
— LSU won first two SEC games. 41-14 at Miss State, 34-31 vs Arkansas.
— Tigers (-2) lost 45-24 to Florida State.
— Tigers gave up 494-201-426 yards in its I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 102 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 43 starts, 29 of them at Arizona State.
— under Kelly, LSU is 1-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— In his career, Kelly is 30-28-2 ATS as a road favorite.
— since 2017, LSU is 33-20-1 ATS in SEC games.
— LSU is 4-1 SU/ATS in bowls the last five years.
Ole Miss (3-1)
— Rebels were outgained 356-301 in 24-10 loss at Alabama LW
— Ole Miss scored 37-48 points in its I-A wins.
— Rebels ran ball for 89-299-56 yards in its I-A games.
— 9 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 131 starts back on offensive line; good offensive line
— junior QB started 12 games last year.
— In his college career, Kiffin is 22-19 ATS at coming off a loss.
— In his college career, Kiffin is 3-8 ATS as a home underdog.
— Under Kiffin, Rebels are 11-15 ATS in the SEC.
— Ole Miss is 2-3 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
— LSU won six of last seven meetings.
— Tigers are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Oxford.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
South Carolina @ Tennessee
South Carolina (2-2)
— South Carolina is 1-2 vs I-A teams, losing 31-17/24-14.
— Gamecocks beat Miss State 37-30 LW for its one I-A win.
— Carolina allowed 471.3 yards/game in its three I-A games.
— 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 86 starts back on offensive line; they added two I-AA transfers, too.
— Junior QB has 30 starts, 13 of them at Oklahoma.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 9-9 ATS in the SEC.
— Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 4-4 ATS as a road underdog.
— SC’s new offensive coordinator has been an OC in the NFL.
— Carolina is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five bowls.
Tennessee (3-1)
— Tennessee lost its SEC opener, 29-16 at Florida.
— Gators held Tennessee to 100 RY in that game.
— Vols scored 45-49 points in wins over I-A stiffs.
— Vols are 14-3 SU in last 17 games (27-33 from 2017-21)
— 5 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
— 93 starts back on offensive line.
— Senior QB has nine starts.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 9-3 ATS as a home favorite.
— Under Heupel, Tennessee is 8-9 ATS inn SEC games.
— Vols are 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five bowls.
— Tennessee won/covered three of last four series games.
— Gamecocks are 7-4-1 ATS in last 12 visits to Knoxville.
— Last four meetings went over the total.
San Diego State @ Air Force
San Diego State (2-3)
— Aztecs lost last three games, giving up 35-26-34 points.
— Aztecs’ only I-A win: 20-13 (-2.5) over Ohio U.
— San Diego State gave up 254 YR to UCLA, 241 to Boise State.
— 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense
— 53 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has 8 career starts.
— Aztecs are 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
— Last three years, San Diego State was 10-11-1 ATS in MW games.
— Aztecs are 9-5-1 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
— San Diego State is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (favored in 4 of 5)
Air Force (4-0)
— Air Force’s I-A wins are by 10-18-25 points.
— last 4+ years, Air Force is 38-11 SU, 3-0 in bowls.
— Falcons have run ball for 329.2 yards/game vs I-A foes.
— 5 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
— 62 starts back on offensive line.
— senior QB has thrown 12 passes, run ball 54 times so far.
— Air Force has been favored in 37 of its last 48 games.
— Air Force is 13-8 ATS last 21 games as a home favorite.
— since 2019, Flyboys are 19-11 ATS in Mountain West games.
— Air Force won its last four bowl games, scoring 34.3 ppg.
— San Diego State won nine of last ten series games.
— Aztecs covered their last five visits to Colorado Springs.
— Under is 9-3 in last 12 meetings.
Alabama @ Mississippi State
Alabama (3-1)
— Alabama allowed 7-3-10 points in its three wins.
— Crimson Tide’s only loss was 34-24 at home to Texas.
— Longhorns threw for 349 yards in that game.
— 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense
— 41 starts back on offensive line.
— Alabama is 2-8 ATS in last ten games as a road favorite
— Crimson Tide won only road game, 17-3 (-34) at South Florida.
— Alabama is +1 in turnovers since start of LY (+76 from 2015-21)
— Alabama is 8-10-1 ATS in its last 19 SEC games.
— Crimson Tide won six of its last eight bowls.
Mississippi State (2-2)
— New coach TY after Mike Leach passed away last year.
— Miss State lost first two SEC games, giving up 41-37 points.
— Bulldogs gave up 431-530-432 TY in its I-A games.
— 8 starters back on offense, 4 on defense
— 113 starts back on offensive line.
— junior QB has started 32 games.
— MSU threw for 487 yards in LW’s 37-30 loss at South Carolina.
— Bulldogs are 14-22 ATS in last 36 SEC games.
— Miss State gave up 995 passing yards in its three I-A games.
— Bulldogs are 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowls.
— Alabama won last 15 series games (7-1 ATS last eight).
— Crimson Tide is 4-3 ATS in last seven visits to Starkville.
— Under is 13-2-1 in last sixteen meetings.
FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 29
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| LOU at NCST | 07:00 PM | LOU -3.5 U 56.0 | +500 +500 |
| UTAH at ORST | 09:00 PM | ORST -4.5 O 44.0 | +500 +500 |
| LT at UTEP | 09:00 PM | UTEP -1.5 O 50.5 | +500 +500 |
| CIN at BYU | 10:15 PM | BYU +1.0 U 49.5 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/29/2023 | 3-5-0 | 37.50% | -1250 | Detail |
| 09/28/2023 | 1-5-0 | 16.67% | -2250 | Detail |
| 09/23/2023 | 36-40-5 | 47.53% | -4000 | Detail |
| 09/22/2023 | 6-2-0 | 75.00% | +1900 | Detail |
| 09/21/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 09/16/2023 | 35-26-0 | 57.38% | +3200 | Detail |
| 09/15/2023 | 4-2-0 | 66.67% | +900 | Detail |
| 09/14/2023 | 1-3-0 | 25.00% | -1150 | Detail |
| 09/09/2023 | 28-34-1 | 45.24% | -4700 | Detail |
| 09/08/2023 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
| 09/04/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 09/03/2023 | 3-3-0 | 50.00% | -150 | Detail |
| 09/02/2023 | 53-42-1 | 55.73% | +3400 | Detail |
| 09/01/2023 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -300 | Detail |
| 08/26/2023 | 9-5-0 | 64.29% | +1750 | Detail |
BEST BETS AUGUST THRU SEPT.
09/29/2023................................3 - 3............................50.00%...............................- 1.50
09/28/2023................................1 - 4............................20.00%...............................- 17.00
09/23/2023.............................11 - 19- 2.....................36.66%................................- 49.60
09/22/2023................................5 - 1............................83.33%................................+ 19.50
09/21/2023................................1 - 1........................... 50.00%.................................- 0.50
09/16/2023..............................17 - 13........................56.66%..................................+ 13.50
09/15/2023..............................4 - 1............................80.00%..................................+ 14.50
09/14/2023..............................0 - 3............................00.00%...................................- 16.50
09/09/2023............................18 - 15 -1....................54.54%..................................+ 8.50
09/08/2023.............................2 - 1.............................66.66%..................................+ 4.50
09/04/2023.............................2 - 0...........................100.00%..................................+ 10.00
09/03/2023.............................2 - 2............................50.00%...................................- 1.00
09/02/2023...........................25 - 20.........................55.55%...................................+ 15.00
09/01/2023.............................5 - 2............................71.42%...................................+ 14.00
08/26/2023.............................6 - 4............................60.00%...................................+ 8.00
TOTALS.................................102 - 89 - 3.......................53.40%..................................+ 21.40
09/29/2023................................3 - 3............................50.00%...............................- 1.50
09/28/2023................................1 - 4............................20.00%...............................- 17.00
09/23/2023.............................11 - 19- 2.....................36.66%................................- 49.60
09/22/2023................................5 - 1............................83.33%................................+ 19.50
09/21/2023................................1 - 1........................... 50.00%.................................- 0.50
09/16/2023..............................17 - 13........................56.66%..................................+ 13.50
09/15/2023..............................4 - 1............................80.00%..................................+ 14.50
09/14/2023..............................0 - 3............................00.00%...................................- 16.50
09/09/2023............................18 - 15 -1....................54.54%..................................+ 8.50
09/08/2023.............................2 - 1.............................66.66%..................................+ 4.50
09/04/2023.............................2 - 0...........................100.00%..................................+ 10.00
09/03/2023.............................2 - 2............................50.00%...................................- 1.00
09/02/2023...........................25 - 20.........................55.55%...................................+ 15.00
09/01/2023.............................5 - 2............................71.42%...................................+ 14.00
08/26/2023.............................6 - 4............................60.00%...................................+ 8.00
TOTALS.................................102 - 89 - 3.......................53.40%..................................+ 21.40
Completed Picks
| Date | League | Game | Score | Pick | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 29, 2023 | NCAAF | Louisville NC State | 13 10 | Under 55.0 | Win |
| Sep 25, 2023 | NFL | Philadelphia Tampa Bay | 25 11 | TB +5.5 | Loss |
| Sep 24, 2023 | NFL | Buffalo Washington | 37 3 | Under 44.0 | Win |
| Sep 22, 2023 | NCAAF | Boise State San Diego State | 34 31 | SDSU +6.5 | Win |
| Sep 20, 2023 | MLB | San Francisco Arizona | 1 7 | ARI +101 | Win |
| Sep 19, 2023 | WNBA | Atlanta Dallas | 74 101 | Over 170.5 | Win |
| Sep 15, 2023 | NCAAF | Army Texas-San Antonio | 37 29 | Over 42.0 | Win |
Saturday’s 6-pack:
Best NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
6.20— Ravens (62 points/10 drives)
6.00— Chiefs
5.93— Dolphins
5.89— Packers
5.75— Chargers
5.60— Bears (only five drives)
Quote of the Day
“Hope it’s up to your standards. I didn’t know I was a poor man’s anything.”
Jared Goff Thursday night, after Ryan Fitzpatrick called him “…..a poor man’s Matt Ryan”
Saturday’s quiz
Where did Jared Goff play his college football?
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.
Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, he wore number 45.
***********************************************
Miami trailed 3-0 in 8th inning, scored four runs in top of the 8th.
— Brewers 4, Cubs 3 (10)
Cubs tied game after trailing 3-0 in 8th inning.
Carlos Santana got the game-winning hit.
Cubs/Reds are tied, 1.5 games behind the Marlins for the last playoff spot.
— Astros 2, Arizona 1
Jose Urquidy got a spot start, threw six scoreless IP.
Jose Abreu’s two-run double was the game-winning hit.
— Mariners 8, Rangers 0— Seattle stays within a game of Houston in the Wild Card race; Texas leads the Astros by a game in AL West.
— Royals 12, New York 5— Carlos Rodon faced eight batters, threw 35 pitches, gave up six hits, walked two guys— all eight hitters scored. It was the worst start by any MLB pitcher since 2019, when Stephen Matz faced eight guys, and they all got on base.
Rodon is in the first year of a six-year, $162M contract. Yikes.
— San Francisco Giants fired manager Gabe Kapler Friday, two years after his Giants went 107-55; the other three years he managed the Giants:
2020— 29-31
2021— 107-55
2022— 81-81
2023— 78-81
— Texas Rangers have 30 saves this year; they’ve blown 33 saves. No bueno.
— Louisville 13, NC State 10
Wolfpack led 10-0 at halftime.
Cardinals outgained NC State 306-201; Wolfpack had only 9 first downs.
Louisville kicked a 53-yard FG with 5:32 left for the winning score.
— Oregon State 21, Utah 7
Beavers outgained Utah, 358-198
Utah’s starting QB still hasn’t played this season.
Both teams are 4-1 now.
— Louisiana Tech 24, UTEP 10
Tech led 17-7 at halftime.
Neither team completed half their passes
Tech was 3-11 on third down, UTEP 3-18.
— BYU 35, Cincinnati 27
First score of game was a pick-6 for BYU.
BYU QB Slovis threw TD passes of 22-59 yards.
Bearcats outgained BYU, 498-295
— Word of the Day: Quagmire- an awkward, complex, or hazardous situation.
— Los Angeles Chargers have their bye next week, in Week 5; the last nine years, Chargers are 1-8 ATS in the game before their bye.
— Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields is 5-23 SU/9-18-1 ATS as an NFL quarterback; Bears host Denver this week, a team that lost 70-20 last week, but Denver is favored by 3.5 points.
— Green Bay’s Jordan Love is 2-3 in his first five NFL starts.
Aaron Rodgers was 2-3 in his first five NFL starts; so was Brett Favre.
— 21 of the 32 head coaches in the NFL are in their first NFL head coaching job; guys who get fired in the NFL are more likely to go off to college jobs (Matt Rhule, Jim Mora Jr, Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban come to mind).
How come no one has given Dan Quinn another shot at being a head coach? Few years ago, the guy was winning a Super Bowl 28-3. You’d think he would get hired by someone.
— Only one 0-4 NFL team made the playoffs that year: the 1992 San Diego Chargers.
— Thru Thursday’s games, 1,137 baseball games went over the total this season, 1,136 games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota Twins have struck out 1,629 times this season, the most by any team, ever.
— A reminder that this Sunday, the last day of baseball’s regular season, every game starts at 3:00 Eastern time.
— Best college football teams against the spread:
4-0 ATS: Liberty, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, UNLV
3-0-1 ATS: Rutgers, Syracuse
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Best NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
6.20— Ravens (62 points/10 drives)
6.00— Chiefs
5.93— Dolphins
5.89— Packers
5.75— Chargers
5.60— Bears (only five drives)
Quote of the Day
“Hope it’s up to your standards. I didn’t know I was a poor man’s anything.”
Jared Goff Thursday night, after Ryan Fitzpatrick called him “…..a poor man’s Matt Ryan”
Saturday’s quiz
Where did Jared Goff play his college football?
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.
Thursday’s quiz
When Michael Jordan played minor league baseball for the Birmingham Barons, he wore number 45.
***********************************************
Saturday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here……
— Marlins 4, Pirates 3Miami trailed 3-0 in 8th inning, scored four runs in top of the 8th.
— Brewers 4, Cubs 3 (10)
Cubs tied game after trailing 3-0 in 8th inning.
Carlos Santana got the game-winning hit.
Cubs/Reds are tied, 1.5 games behind the Marlins for the last playoff spot.
— Astros 2, Arizona 1
Jose Urquidy got a spot start, threw six scoreless IP.
Jose Abreu’s two-run double was the game-winning hit.
— Mariners 8, Rangers 0— Seattle stays within a game of Houston in the Wild Card race; Texas leads the Astros by a game in AL West.
— Royals 12, New York 5— Carlos Rodon faced eight batters, threw 35 pitches, gave up six hits, walked two guys— all eight hitters scored. It was the worst start by any MLB pitcher since 2019, when Stephen Matz faced eight guys, and they all got on base.
Rodon is in the first year of a six-year, $162M contract. Yikes.
— San Francisco Giants fired manager Gabe Kapler Friday, two years after his Giants went 107-55; the other three years he managed the Giants:
2020— 29-31
2021— 107-55
2022— 81-81
2023— 78-81
— Texas Rangers have 30 saves this year; they’ve blown 33 saves. No bueno.
— Louisville 13, NC State 10
Wolfpack led 10-0 at halftime.
Cardinals outgained NC State 306-201; Wolfpack had only 9 first downs.
Louisville kicked a 53-yard FG with 5:32 left for the winning score.
— Oregon State 21, Utah 7
Beavers outgained Utah, 358-198
Utah’s starting QB still hasn’t played this season.
Both teams are 4-1 now.
— Louisiana Tech 24, UTEP 10
Tech led 17-7 at halftime.
Neither team completed half their passes
Tech was 3-11 on third down, UTEP 3-18.
— BYU 35, Cincinnati 27
First score of game was a pick-6 for BYU.
BYU QB Slovis threw TD passes of 22-59 yards.
Bearcats outgained BYU, 498-295
— Word of the Day: Quagmire- an awkward, complex, or hazardous situation.
— Los Angeles Chargers have their bye next week, in Week 5; the last nine years, Chargers are 1-8 ATS in the game before their bye.
— Chicago Bears QB Justin Fields is 5-23 SU/9-18-1 ATS as an NFL quarterback; Bears host Denver this week, a team that lost 70-20 last week, but Denver is favored by 3.5 points.
— Green Bay’s Jordan Love is 2-3 in his first five NFL starts.
Aaron Rodgers was 2-3 in his first five NFL starts; so was Brett Favre.
— 21 of the 32 head coaches in the NFL are in their first NFL head coaching job; guys who get fired in the NFL are more likely to go off to college jobs (Matt Rhule, Jim Mora Jr, Lane Kiffin, Nick Saban come to mind).
How come no one has given Dan Quinn another shot at being a head coach? Few years ago, the guy was winning a Super Bowl 28-3. You’d think he would get hired by someone.
— Only one 0-4 NFL team made the playoffs that year: the 1992 San Diego Chargers.
— Thru Thursday’s games, 1,137 baseball games went over the total this season, 1,136 games stayed under the total.
— Minnesota Twins have struck out 1,629 times this season, the most by any team, ever.
— A reminder that this Sunday, the last day of baseball’s regular season, every game starts at 3:00 Eastern time.
— Best college football teams against the spread:
4-0 ATS: Liberty, Oklahoma, Oregon, Penn State, UNLV
3-0-1 ATS: Rutgers, Syracuse
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 30
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| PSU at NW | 12:00 PM | PSU -26.0 | +500 |
| CLEM at SYR | 12:00 PM | SYR +7.0 | +500 |
| USU at CONN | 12:00 PM | CONN +4.5 O 51.0 | +500 +500 |
| UAB at TULN | 12:00 PM | UAB +21.5 | +500 |
| ULL at MINN | 12:00 PM | ULL +11.0 O 49.0 | +500 +500 |
| FLA at UK | 12:00 PM | FLA +1.0 | +500 |
| BUFF at AKR | 12:00 PM | BUFF +3.0 | +500 |
| TAM at ARK | 12:00 PM | ARK +6.5 O 53.5 | +500 +500 |
| USA at JMU | 12:00 PM | JMU -2.5 | +500 |
| USC at COLO | 12:00 PM | USC -21.5 U 72.5 | +500 +500 |
| EMU at CMU | 01:30 PM | CMU -9.5 | +500 |
| UVA at BC | 02:00 PM | U 52.5 | +500 |
| M-OH at KENT | 02:30 PM | U 51.0 | +500 |
| ASU at CAL | 03:00 PM | ASU +12.5 O 47.0 | +500 +500 |
| BAY at UCF | 03:30 PM | UCF -8.5 O 57.0 | +500 +500 |
| USF at NAVY | 03:30 PM | NAVY -3.0 | +500 |
| ODU at MRSH | 03:30 PM | U 47.0 | +500 |
| HOU at TTU | 03:30 PM | TTU -8.0 O 52.5 | +500 +500 |
| ILL at PUR | 03:30 PM | PUR +1.0 U 54.0 | +500 +500 |
| UGA at AUB | 03:30 PM | AUB +14.5 O 45.0 | +500 +500 |
| KU at TEX | 03:30 PM | KU +16.0 O 61.0 | +500 +500 |
| IU at MD | 03:30 PM | MD -14.0 | +500 |
| BGSU at GT | 03:30 PM | GT -21.0 | +500 |
| NIU at TOL | 03:30 PM | O 47.5 | +500 |
| MICH at NEB | 03:30 PM | MICH -17.0 | +500 |
| BALL at WMU | 03:30 PM | U 49.5 | +500 |
| BSU at MEM | 04:00 PM | MEM -3.0 O 58.5 | +500 +500 |
| MIZZ at VAN | 04:00 PM | U 54.5 | +500 |
| UNM at WYO | 04:00 PM | WYO -14.0 | +500 |
| HAW at UNLV | 04:00 PM | UNLV -11.0 O 59.0 | +500 +500 |
| LSU at MISS | 06:00 PM | LSU -2.5 | +500 |
| ORE at STAN | 06:30 PM | ORE -27.0 | +500 |
| ECU at RICE | 07:00 PM | O 45.0 | +500 |
| TXST at USM | 07:00 PM | USM +6.5 O 59.5 | +500 +500 |
| TROY at GSU | 07:00 PM | TROY +1.0 | +500 |
| ISU at OKLA | 07:00 PM | ISU +18.5 | +500 |
| CCU at GASO | 07:00 PM | GASO -6.5 | +500 |
| CHAR at SMU | 07:30 PM | SMU -23.5 O 53.5 | +500 +500 |
| MSU at IOWA | 07:30 PM | IOWA -10.0 U 36.5 | +500 +500 |
| SOCAR at TENN | 07:30 PM | SOCAR +11.5 | +500 |
| ND at DUKE | 07:30 PM | DUKE +5.5 O 53.0 | +500 +500 |
| PITT at VT | 08:00 PM | O 40.5 | +500 |
| WVU at TCU | 08:00 PM | TCU -14.0 U 52.5 | +500 +500 |
| SDSU at AFA | 08:00 PM | AFA -11.0 U 42.5 | +500 +500 |
| APP at ULM | 08:00 PM | APP -13.5 U 50.5 | +500 +500 |
| ALA at MSST | 09:00 PM | ALA -14.5 O 46.0 | +500 +500 |
| WASH at ARIZ | 10:00 PM | ARIZ +19.0 O 66.0 | +500 +500 |
| NEV at FRES | 10:30 PM | FRES -24.5 O 50.5 | +500 +500 |
Completed Picks
Past Completed Picks| Date | W-L-T | % | Units | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/30/2023 | 33-32-3 | 50.74% | -1100 | Detail |
| 09/29/2023 | 3-5-0 | 37.50% | -1250 | Detail |
| 09/28/2023 | 1-5-0 | 16.67% | -2250 | Detail |
| 09/23/2023 | 36-40-5 | 47.53% | -4000 | Detail |
| 09/22/2023 | 6-2-0 | 75.00% | +1900 | Detail |
| 09/21/2023 | 1-1-0 | 50.00% | -50 | Detail |
| 09/16/2023 | 35-26-0 | 57.38% | +3200 | Detail |
| 09/15/2023 | 4-2-0 | 66.67% | +900 | Detail |
| 09/14/2023 | 1-3-0 | 25.00% | -1150 | Detail |
| 09/09/2023 | 28-34-1 | 45.24% | -4700 | Detail |
| 09/08/2023 | 3-1-0 | 75.00% | +950 | Detail |
| 09/04/2023 | 2-0-0 | 100.00% | +1000 | Detail |
| 09/03/2023 | 3-3-0 | 50.00% | -150 | Detail |
| 09/02/2023 | 53-42-1 | 55.73% | +3400 | Detail |
| 09/01/2023 | 6-6-0 | 50.00% | -300 | Detail |
| 08/26/2023 | 9-5-0 | 64.29% | +1750 | Detail |
BEST BETS AUGUST THRU SEPT.
09/30/2023...........................23 - 16 - 1.........................58.97%...............................+ 27.00
09/29/2023................................3 - 3............................50.00%...............................- 1.50
09/28/2023................................1 - 4............................20.00%...............................- 17.00
09/23/2023.............................11 - 19- 2.....................36.66%................................- 49.60
09/22/2023................................5 - 1............................83.33%................................+ 19.50
09/21/2023................................1 - 1........................... 50.00%.................................- 0.50
09/16/2023..............................17 - 13........................56.66%..................................+ 13.50
09/15/2023..............................4 - 1............................80.00%..................................+ 14.50
09/14/2023..............................0 - 3............................00.00%...................................- 16.50
09/09/2023............................18 - 15 -1....................54.54%..................................+ 8.50
09/08/2023.............................2 - 1.............................66.66%..................................+ 4.50
09/04/2023.............................2 - 0...........................100.00%..................................+ 10.00
09/03/2023.............................2 - 2............................50.00%...................................- 1.00
09/02/2023...........................25 - 20.........................55.55%...................................+ 15.00
09/01/2023.............................5 - 2............................71.42%...................................+ 14.00
08/26/2023.............................6 - 4............................60.00%...................................+ 8.00
TOTALS.............................125 - 105 - 4.......................54.34%..................................+ 48.40
09/30/2023...........................23 - 16 - 1.........................58.97%...............................+ 27.00
09/29/2023................................3 - 3............................50.00%...............................- 1.50
09/28/2023................................1 - 4............................20.00%...............................- 17.00
09/23/2023.............................11 - 19- 2.....................36.66%................................- 49.60
09/22/2023................................5 - 1............................83.33%................................+ 19.50
09/21/2023................................1 - 1........................... 50.00%.................................- 0.50
09/16/2023..............................17 - 13........................56.66%..................................+ 13.50
09/15/2023..............................4 - 1............................80.00%..................................+ 14.50
09/14/2023..............................0 - 3............................00.00%...................................- 16.50
09/09/2023............................18 - 15 -1....................54.54%..................................+ 8.50
09/08/2023.............................2 - 1.............................66.66%..................................+ 4.50
09/04/2023.............................2 - 0...........................100.00%..................................+ 10.00
09/03/2023.............................2 - 2............................50.00%...................................- 1.00
09/02/2023...........................25 - 20.........................55.55%...................................+ 15.00
09/01/2023.............................5 - 2............................71.42%...................................+ 14.00
08/26/2023.............................6 - 4............................60.00%...................................+ 8.00
TOTALS.............................125 - 105 - 4.......................54.34%..................................+ 48.40
Sunday’s 6-pack:
Worst NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
3.82— Texans (42 points/11 drives)
4.00— Jets, Titans
4.10— Vikings, Commanders
4.25— Raiders, Buccaneers
4.27— Cowboys
4.45— Broncos
Quote of the Day
“We’re not the hunted, because we’re going to stay on the hunt. If you’re hunting us, you won’t have to look far. We’re gonna be on your front porch.”
Lions’ coach Dan Campbell
Sunday’s quiz
Who was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker?
Hint: he manages another MLB team now
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.
****************************************
UCF led 35-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
Down 35-26, Baylor scored on 72-yard fumble return with 6:02 left.
Baylor kicked game-winning field goal with 1:21 left.
— Ole Miss 55, LSU 49
These teams need to recruit A LOT OF defensive players this winter.
Total yardage in game: Ole Miss 706, LSU 637
Rebels had 11 penalties for 120 yards, still scored 55 points.
Ole Miss scored two TD’s in last 5:09 to get the win.
— Georgia 27, Auburn 20
Auburn led 17-10 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
Georgia threw 40-yard TD pass for game-winning score with 2:52 left.
Dawgs’ TE Bowers caught 8 passes for 157 yards and that TD.
— USC 48, Colorado 41
USC led this game 34-7 at one point.
Colorado was 9-18 on third down, Trojans 3-9
USC QB Williams was 30-40/403 yards, with six TD passes.
Colorado QB Sanders was 30-45/371 yards, with four TD passes.
— Notre Dame 21, Duke 14
Notre Dame drove 95 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:31 left.
— Marshall 41, Old Dominion 35
ODU led 21-3 with 10:00 left in second quarter.
Both teams turned ball over three times.
ODU lost despite running ball for 339 yards (10.9 yards/attempt).
— Appalachian State 41, Louisiana-Monroe 40
App State kicked a 54-yard FG at the gun for the road win.
App State was 7-13 on third down, ULM was 3-11.
— Word of the Day— Loyalty— Giving or showing firm and constant support or allegiance to a person, group of people or institution.
— Upsets of the Day:
Bowling Green (+21) 38, Georgia Tech 27
West Virginia (+13) 24, TCU 21
Baylor (+8) 36, Central Florida 35
Buffalo (+3) 13, Akron 10, OT
South Florida (+3) 44, Navy 30
— 12 teams for the baseball playoffs are set; AL West hasn’t been decided yet, with Rangers trying to clinch with a win Sunday.
— Marlins 7, Pirates 3
Miami clinches its first full-season playoff berth since 2003.
Because of this, Mets win Thursday’s game vs Miami, 1-0 in 8 innings- the score reverts to the 8th inning— the ninth inning won’t be finished Monday.
— Rangers 6, Mariners 1
Rangers are in playoffs, need one more win to clinch AL West.
Mariners have been eliminated.
— Astros 1, Diamondbacks 0
Astros are in playoffs, can still win AL West.
Diamondbacks also clinched playoff spot Saturday.
— Padres 6, White Sox 1
San Diego is 81-80; when they won Friday night, it put them at .500 for first time since May 11, when they were 19-19.
— Bowling Green 38, Georgia Tech 27— ACC teams aren’t supposed to lose to MAC teams; losses like this get coaches fired.
— Penn State 41, Northwestern 13
PSU led 34-13 with 2:20 left; they were favored by 26 or 27 points.
Nittany Lions threw a 30-yard TD pass with 2:20 left. On a first down play.
QB took snap, faked taking a knee, then stood up and threw to a wide-open receiver.
Coaches are trying to cover spreads now; be advised if you like to bet on dogs.
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Worst NFL teams in the red zone this season (thru 3 weeks):
3.82— Texans (42 points/11 drives)
4.00— Jets, Titans
4.10— Vikings, Commanders
4.25— Raiders, Buccaneers
4.27— Cowboys
4.45— Broncos
Quote of the Day
“We’re not the hunted, because we’re going to stay on the hunt. If you’re hunting us, you won’t have to look far. We’re gonna be on your front porch.”
Lions’ coach Dan Campbell
Sunday’s quiz
Who was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker?
Hint: he manages another MLB team now
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
Friday’s quiz
Last time the Baltimore Orioles made the playoffs was in 2016; Buck Showalter was their manager.
****************************************
Sunday’s Den: Wrapping up a sports Saturday…….
— Baylor 36, UCF 35UCF led 35-7 with 4:00 left in third quarter.
Down 35-26, Baylor scored on 72-yard fumble return with 6:02 left.
Baylor kicked game-winning field goal with 1:21 left.
— Ole Miss 55, LSU 49
These teams need to recruit A LOT OF defensive players this winter.
Total yardage in game: Ole Miss 706, LSU 637
Rebels had 11 penalties for 120 yards, still scored 55 points.
Ole Miss scored two TD’s in last 5:09 to get the win.
— Georgia 27, Auburn 20
Auburn led 17-10 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
Georgia threw 40-yard TD pass for game-winning score with 2:52 left.
Dawgs’ TE Bowers caught 8 passes for 157 yards and that TD.
— USC 48, Colorado 41
USC led this game 34-7 at one point.
Colorado was 9-18 on third down, Trojans 3-9
USC QB Williams was 30-40/403 yards, with six TD passes.
Colorado QB Sanders was 30-45/371 yards, with four TD passes.
— Notre Dame 21, Duke 14
Notre Dame drove 95 yards, scored game-winning TD with 0:31 left.
— Marshall 41, Old Dominion 35
ODU led 21-3 with 10:00 left in second quarter.
Both teams turned ball over three times.
ODU lost despite running ball for 339 yards (10.9 yards/attempt).
— Appalachian State 41, Louisiana-Monroe 40
App State kicked a 54-yard FG at the gun for the road win.
App State was 7-13 on third down, ULM was 3-11.
— Word of the Day— Loyalty— Giving or showing firm and constant support or allegiance to a person, group of people or institution.
— Upsets of the Day:
Bowling Green (+21) 38, Georgia Tech 27
West Virginia (+13) 24, TCU 21
Baylor (+8) 36, Central Florida 35
Buffalo (+3) 13, Akron 10, OT
South Florida (+3) 44, Navy 30
— 12 teams for the baseball playoffs are set; AL West hasn’t been decided yet, with Rangers trying to clinch with a win Sunday.
— Marlins 7, Pirates 3
Miami clinches its first full-season playoff berth since 2003.
Because of this, Mets win Thursday’s game vs Miami, 1-0 in 8 innings- the score reverts to the 8th inning— the ninth inning won’t be finished Monday.
— Rangers 6, Mariners 1
Rangers are in playoffs, need one more win to clinch AL West.
Mariners have been eliminated.
— Astros 1, Diamondbacks 0
Astros are in playoffs, can still win AL West.
Diamondbacks also clinched playoff spot Saturday.
— Padres 6, White Sox 1
San Diego is 81-80; when they won Friday night, it put them at .500 for first time since May 11, when they were 19-19.
— Bowling Green 38, Georgia Tech 27— ACC teams aren’t supposed to lose to MAC teams; losses like this get coaches fired.
— Penn State 41, Northwestern 13
PSU led 34-13 with 2:20 left; they were favored by 26 or 27 points.
Nittany Lions threw a 30-yard TD pass with 2:20 left. On a first down play.
QB took snap, faked taking a knee, then stood up and threw to a wide-open receiver.
Coaches are trying to cover spreads now; be advised if you like to bet on dogs.
— If the baseball playoffs started today (they start Tuesday):
NL: Braves, Brewers, Dodgers. Wild Cards- Phillies, Arizona, Marlins
AL: Orioles, Twins, Rangers. Wild Cards- Rays, Blue Jays, Astros
Monday’s 6-pack:
Baseball Wild Card playoff series (best-of-3, starting Tuesday):
— Texas @ Tampa Bay
— Toronto @ Minnesota
— Arizona @ Milwaukee
— Miami @ Philadelphia
— Mets fired manager Buck Showalter; they were 175-148 in his two years.
— Former Red Sox P Tim Wakefield passed away, at age 57.
Quote of the Day
“On the analytics side, I think the information and the resources the Yankees provide are great. I think it’s just about how we use them and how we value them is an aspect that we just maybe need to look at again. ………I wouldn’t say [we are] overloaded. I think it’s just looking at the right numbers. I think maybe we might be looking at the wrong ones. We need to value some other ones that people might see as having no value.”
Aaron Judge
Monday’s quiz
Who was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs?
Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
*****************************************
— Commanders led 17-10 at halftime.
— Eagles in 2nd half/OT: 43 plays, 277 yards, 24 points.
— Brown caught nine passes for 175 yards, two TD’s.
— Eagles are 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS, scoring 25-34-25-34 points.
— Commanders forced OT on 10-yard TD pass with 0:01 left.
— Washington’s first two drives: 21 plays, 143 yards, two TD’s.
— Commanders were 8-17 on third down, Eagles 4-12.
— Washington gave up 33-37-34 points the last three weeks.
Rams 29, Colts 23, OT
— Rams led this game 23-0 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
— LA drove 75 yards for game-winning TD on first drive in OT
— Stafford played whole game, but got hurt (hip??) early in 3rd quarter.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Rookie WR Pacua caught nine passes for 163 yards, and the game-winning TD.
— Colts tied game 23-all with 1:56 left, on an 83-yard drive.
— Indy converted both 2-point conversions they tried.
— Road team won all four Colts’ games this year.
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 home games, losing last seven SU.
Odd fact: in 1972, Robert Irsay bought the Rams from the estate of the Rams’ owner, who passed away; he traded the Rams to Carroll Rosenbloom, for the then-Baltimore Colts.
Broncos 31, Bears 28
— Lutz kicked 51-yard FG with 1:51 left for the win.
— Down 28-21 with 7:05, Broncos tied game with a defensive TD.
— Denver’s last three drives: 22 plays, 183 yards, 17 points.
— Broncos gave up 133 points in their last three games.
— Bears led 28-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
— Bears are 9-29 SU/13-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Fields was 28-35/335 passing, with four TD’s.
— Chicago lost its first four games, giving up 34.3 ppg.
Bills 48, Dolphins 20
— Miami’s first two drives: 14 plays, 142 yards, 14 points.
— Miami last nine drives: 44 plays, 257 yards, six points.
— Dolphins converted only 3-10 third down plays.
— Miami’s opponents are 24-52 on third down.
— Bills won last three games, outscoring foes 123-33.
— Bills’ first nine drives: 46 plays, 393 yards, six TD’s, 2 FG’s.
— Diggs caught six passes for 120 yards, three TD’s.
— Buffalo is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.
Jaguars 23, Falcons 7
— First three drives, Jaguars ran 22 plays for 146 yards, got TD-FG.
— Jaguars made it 17-0 on a 61-yard pick-6- it was 17-0 at the half.
— Jacksonville is only 16-51 on third down in three games.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +8 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Falcons’ first five drives: 22 plays, 53 yards, 3 punts, 2 INT’s.
— Atlanta’s only TD came on 75-yard drive, first drive of 3rd quarter.
— Atlanta has been outscored 47-19 in first half of games.
— Under is 10-2 in their last dozen games overall.
Ravens 28, Browns 3
— Baltimore had TD drives of 10-94-93-38 yards.
— Ravens are 9-5 ATS in last 14 AFC North road games.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 49 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 49-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— QB Watson didn’t play; backup Thompson-Robinson was overmatched.
— In his first NFL start, DTR threw 3 INT’s, averaged 1.8 yards/attempt.
— For the game, Cleveland ran 65 plays for 166 yards.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26-28 in their losses.
Texans 30, Steelers 6
— Steelers in first half: 24 plays, 53 yards, no points.
— Pittsburgh averaged 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Steelers have been outgained by 140 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
— Texans’ first three drives: 28 plays, 155 yards, TD-FG-FG
— Rookie QB Stroud averaged 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Texans averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt last two games.
— Houston is 11-7-2 ATS last 20 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
Vikings 21, Panthers 13
— Cousins threw a 99-yard pick-6 on Minnesota’s first series.
— That was Carolina’s only touchdown all day.
— Down 13-7, Vikings scored defensive TD to take lead for good.
— Vikings are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass.
— Carolina led this game 13-7 at halftime.
— Panthers have been outscored 70-31 in second half of games.
— Opponents are 13-45 on third down this year.
— Carolina lost first four games, scoring 10-17-27-13 points.
Buccaneers 26, Saints 9
— Bucs converted 27 of first 57 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay has 10 takeaways in four games (+7 turnovers)
— Opponents’ team total is 3-0-1 under this year.
— Under is 13-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 18 road games.
— New Orleans was outgained, 353-197.
— Saints averaged only 3.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Under is 12-7 in Saints’ last 19 home games.
— Last 5+ years, NO is 5-10-1 ATS in NFC South home games.
Titans 27, Bengals 3
— Bengals drove 72 yards for a FG on their first drive- their only score.
— Cincinnati was 2-9 on third down, Tennessee 8-13.
— Bengals averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7/4.2 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-4.
— Under is 12-5-1 in their last eighteen road games.
— Titans’ first five drives: 34 plays, 273 yards, 3 TD’s and a FG.
— Tennessee outgained the Bengals, 400-211.
— Titans are 29-18-2 ATS in last 49 games coming off a loss.
— Titans scored 27-27 points in its wins; they didn’t score a TD in either loss.
Chargers 24, Raiders 17
— Chargers’ first five drives: 37 plays, 240 yards, 24 points.
— Chargers’ last six drives: 26 plays, 86 yards, no points.
— QB Herbert played 4th quarter with splint on finger on his left hand.
— Last three games, Chargers converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 passing in his first NFL start.
— Raiders converted 1-11 third down plays, 3-3 on fourth down.
— Last 3+ years, Las Vegas is 10-16 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17 points in first three games.
Cowboys 38, Patriots 3
— Dallas scored two defensive TD’s in the second quarter.
— Cowboys are 36-61 on third down, opponents are 15-49.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 20-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys’ three wins are by a combined 108-13.
— Patriots drove 64 yards for FG on first drive, their only score of game.
— New England ran ball 23 times for only 53 yards.
— Patriots are off to 1-3 start, scoring 20-17-15-3 points.
— Belichick was 249-75 with Brady as his QB, is 81-93 without him.
49ers 35, Cardinals 16
— 49ers led 21-16 after three quarters.
— SF’s first three drives: 22 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
— Purdy averaged 12.3 yards/pass attempt.
— SF is 9-1 ATS in last nine games as a home fave LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers ran 53 plays; only five of them were on 3rd down (3-5).
— SF won first four games, scoring 30-30-30-35 points.
— Cardinals have lost 14 of last 17 games SU (7-7 ATS in last 14).
— Arizona has been outscored 61-24 in 2nd half.
Chiefs 23, Jets 20
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 19 plays, 215 yards, 17 points.
— Chiefs rest of game: 50 plays, 191 yards, 6 points.
— KC is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs are 15-24-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
— Jets’ first three drives: 13 plays, 43 yards, no points.
— Chiefs led 17-0 after the first quarter.
— Wilson was 28-39/245 passing, with two TD’s.
— Wilson is 8-17 as an NFL starter.
Baseball Wild Card playoff series (best-of-3, starting Tuesday):
— Texas @ Tampa Bay
— Toronto @ Minnesota
— Arizona @ Milwaukee
— Miami @ Philadelphia
— Mets fired manager Buck Showalter; they were 175-148 in his two years.
— Former Red Sox P Tim Wakefield passed away, at age 57.
Quote of the Day
“On the analytics side, I think the information and the resources the Yankees provide are great. I think it’s just about how we use them and how we value them is an aspect that we just maybe need to look at again. ………I wouldn’t say [we are] overloaded. I think it’s just looking at the right numbers. I think maybe we might be looking at the wrong ones. We need to value some other ones that people might see as having no value.”
Aaron Judge
Monday’s quiz
Who was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs?
Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.
Saturday’s quiz
Jared Goff played his college football for the Cal Bears.
*****************************************
Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……..
Eagles 34, Commanders 31, OT— Commanders led 17-10 at halftime.
— Eagles in 2nd half/OT: 43 plays, 277 yards, 24 points.
— Brown caught nine passes for 175 yards, two TD’s.
— Eagles are 4-0 SU/2-1-1 ATS, scoring 25-34-25-34 points.
— Commanders forced OT on 10-yard TD pass with 0:01 left.
— Washington’s first two drives: 21 plays, 143 yards, two TD’s.
— Commanders were 8-17 on third down, Eagles 4-12.
— Washington gave up 33-37-34 points the last three weeks.
Rams 29, Colts 23, OT
— Rams led this game 23-0 with 6:00 left in third quarter.
— LA drove 75 yards for game-winning TD on first drive in OT
— Stafford played whole game, but got hurt (hip??) early in 3rd quarter.
— NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
— Rookie WR Pacua caught nine passes for 163 yards, and the game-winning TD.
— Colts tied game 23-all with 1:56 left, on an 83-yard drive.
— Indy converted both 2-point conversions they tried.
— Road team won all four Colts’ games this year.
— Colts are 7-12 ATS in last 19 home games, losing last seven SU.
Odd fact: in 1972, Robert Irsay bought the Rams from the estate of the Rams’ owner, who passed away; he traded the Rams to Carroll Rosenbloom, for the then-Baltimore Colts.
Broncos 31, Bears 28
— Lutz kicked 51-yard FG with 1:51 left for the win.
— Down 28-21 with 7:05, Broncos tied game with a defensive TD.
— Denver’s last three drives: 22 plays, 183 yards, 17 points.
— Broncos gave up 133 points in their last three games.
— Bears led 28-7 with 2:00 left in third quarter.
— Bears are 9-29 SU/13-23-2 ATS the last 2+ years.
— Fields was 28-35/335 passing, with four TD’s.
— Chicago lost its first four games, giving up 34.3 ppg.
Bills 48, Dolphins 20
— Miami’s first two drives: 14 plays, 142 yards, 14 points.
— Miami last nine drives: 44 plays, 257 yards, six points.
— Dolphins converted only 3-10 third down plays.
— Miami’s opponents are 24-52 on third down.
— Bills won last three games, outscoring foes 123-33.
— Bills’ first nine drives: 46 plays, 393 yards, six TD’s, 2 FG’s.
— Diggs caught six passes for 120 yards, three TD’s.
— Buffalo is 14-8-1 ATS in last 23 games as a home favorite.
Jaguars 23, Falcons 7
— First three drives, Jaguars ran 22 plays for 146 yards, got TD-FG.
— Jaguars made it 17-0 on a 61-yard pick-6- it was 17-0 at the half.
— Jacksonville is only 16-51 on third down in three games.
— Under Pederson, Jags are +8 in turnovers (minus-20 in 2021)
— Falcons’ first five drives: 22 plays, 53 yards, 3 punts, 2 INT’s.
— Atlanta’s only TD came on 75-yard drive, first drive of 3rd quarter.
— Atlanta has been outscored 47-19 in first half of games.
— Under is 10-2 in their last dozen games overall.
Ravens 28, Browns 3
— Baltimore had TD drives of 10-94-93-38 yards.
— Ravens are 9-5 ATS in last 14 AFC North road games.
— Baltimore defense has allowed only three TD’s on 49 drives.
— Lamar Jackson is 49-20 as an NFL starter (1-3 in playoff games)
— QB Watson didn’t play; backup Thompson-Robinson was overmatched.
— In his first NFL start, DTR threw 3 INT’s, averaged 1.8 yards/attempt.
— For the game, Cleveland ran 65 plays for 166 yards.
— Browns gave up 3-3 points in their wins, 26-28 in their losses.
Texans 30, Steelers 6
— Steelers in first half: 24 plays, 53 yards, no points.
— Pittsburgh averaged 3.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Steelers have been outgained by 140 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 3-10 ATS in last 13 games as a road favorite.
— Texans’ first three drives: 28 plays, 155 yards, TD-FG-FG
— Rookie QB Stroud averaged 10.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Texans averaged 9.3/10.1 yards/pass attempt last two games.
— Houston is 11-7-2 ATS last 20 games when spread was 3 or fewer points.
Vikings 21, Panthers 13
— Cousins threw a 99-yard pick-6 on Minnesota’s first series.
— That was Carolina’s only touchdown all day.
— Down 13-7, Vikings scored defensive TD to take lead for good.
— Vikings are 10-5-2 ATS in last 17 games on natural grass.
— Carolina led this game 13-7 at halftime.
— Panthers have been outscored 70-31 in second half of games.
— Opponents are 13-45 on third down this year.
— Carolina lost first four games, scoring 10-17-27-13 points.
Buccaneers 26, Saints 9
— Bucs converted 27 of first 57 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay has 10 takeaways in four games (+7 turnovers)
— Opponents’ team total is 3-0-1 under this year.
— Under is 13-5 in Tampa Bay’s last 18 road games.
— New Orleans was outgained, 353-197.
— Saints averaged only 3.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Under is 12-7 in Saints’ last 19 home games.
— Last 5+ years, NO is 5-10-1 ATS in NFC South home games.
Titans 27, Bengals 3
— Bengals drove 72 yards for a FG on their first drive- their only score.
— Cincinnati was 2-9 on third down, Tennessee 8-13.
— Bengals averaged 2.0/5.1/4.7/4.2 yards/pass attempt in Weeks 1-4.
— Under is 12-5-1 in their last eighteen road games.
— Titans’ first five drives: 34 plays, 273 yards, 3 TD’s and a FG.
— Tennessee outgained the Bengals, 400-211.
— Titans are 29-18-2 ATS in last 49 games coming off a loss.
— Titans scored 27-27 points in its wins; they didn’t score a TD in either loss.
Chargers 24, Raiders 17
— Chargers’ first five drives: 37 plays, 240 yards, 24 points.
— Chargers’ last six drives: 26 plays, 86 yards, no points.
— QB Herbert played 4th quarter with splint on finger on his left hand.
— Last three games, Chargers converted only 12-39 third down plays.
— Rookie QB O’Connell was 24-39/238 passing in his first NFL start.
— Raiders converted 1-11 third down plays, 3-3 on fourth down.
— Last 3+ years, Las Vegas is 10-16 ATS in games coming off a loss.
— Raiders scored 17-10-18-17 points in first three games.
Cowboys 38, Patriots 3
— Dallas scored two defensive TD’s in the second quarter.
— Cowboys are 36-61 on third down, opponents are 15-49.
— Last 2+ years, Dallas is 20-8 ATS as a favorite.
— Cowboys’ three wins are by a combined 108-13.
— Patriots drove 64 yards for FG on first drive, their only score of game.
— New England ran ball 23 times for only 53 yards.
— Patriots are off to 1-3 start, scoring 20-17-15-3 points.
— Belichick was 249-75 with Brady as his QB, is 81-93 without him.
49ers 35, Cardinals 16
— 49ers led 21-16 after three quarters.
— SF’s first three drives: 22 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
— Purdy averaged 12.3 yards/pass attempt.
— SF is 9-1 ATS in last nine games as a home fave LY (7-16-1 from 2018-21).
— 49ers ran 53 plays; only five of them were on 3rd down (3-5).
— SF won first four games, scoring 30-30-30-35 points.
— Cardinals have lost 14 of last 17 games SU (7-7 ATS in last 14).
— Arizona has been outscored 61-24 in 2nd half.
Chiefs 23, Jets 20
— Chiefs’ first three drives: 19 plays, 215 yards, 17 points.
— Chiefs rest of game: 50 plays, 191 yards, 6 points.
— KC is 10-14-1 ATS in last 25 games as a road favorite.
— Chiefs are 15-24-1 ATS in last 40 games coming off a win.
— Jets’ first three drives: 13 plays, 43 yards, no points.
— Chiefs led 17-0 after the first quarter.
— Wilson was 28-39/245 passing, with two TD’s.
— Wilson is 8-17 as an NFL starter.
- Sep 10, 2018
- 17,779
- 20
- 38
NCAAF
Week 6
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Trend Report
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Week 6
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Trend Report
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Tuesday’s 6-pack:
Highest scoring college basketball teams last year, and their record:
86.1— Gonzaga, 31-6
85.4— Toledo, 27-8
83.3— Oral Roberts, 30-5
82.8— Southern Utah, 24-13
81.9— Youngstown State, 24-10
81.9— Arizona, 28-7
Quote of the Day
“I would tell you that I am a lot more critical of myself than anybody on the outside…….There is no sugarcoating this thing. We have no excuse. We can coach better and we can play better. Hopefully, we will do that.”
Florida Gators’ football coach Billy Napier
Saturday’s quiz
Who was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game?
Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.
Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.
********************************************
Seattle sacked Daniel Jones 12 times for 67 yards.
Leading 17-3, Seahawks scored on a 97-yard pick-6.
Seahawks won their last three games, scoring 37-37-24 points.
Seahawks are 18-12-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
Giants have been outscored 77-9 in first half of their games.
Big Blue has only one takeaway in four games (minus-6 turnovers)
Daniel Jones is 23-35-1 as an NFL starter.
Giants have been shut out in four of their eight halves this season.
Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 home games.
— NFL divisional trends, thru four weeks:
NFC East— 5-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC North— 4-6-2 ATS outside the division
NFC South— 3-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC West— 8-0-2 ATS outside the division
AFC East— 5-4 ATS outside the division
AFC North— 3-4-1 ATS outside the division
AFC South— 6-4 ATS outside the division
AFC West— 3-9 ATS outside the division
— College football trends, in conference games only:
AAC home favorites 2-5 ATS
ACC home underdogs 6-3 ATS
Big X favorites 9-3 ATS, 7-2 at home
Big 14 home underdogs 2-5 ATS
Conference USA favorites 4-2 ATS
MAC home teams are 1-6 ATS
Mountain West home teams are 4-3 ATS
Pac-12 home teams are 10-2 ATS
SEC favorites are 10-5 ATS
Sun Belt underdogs are 5-3 ATS
— Indiana Hoosiers fired their offensive coordinator Sunday; Hoosiers are 1-3 vs I-A teams, scoring 3-14-17 points in the three losses. Their lone I-A win was 29-27 over Akron.
The new OC is Rod Carey, the former head coach at Northern Illinois and Temple, where he went 64-50 with seven bowl appearances.
— Word of the Day— Bamboozle— to deceive someone by tricking them.
— One of the more unfortunate baseball trends is that the Minnesota Twins have lost their last 18 playoff games; their last playoff win was in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS, when Johan Santana blanked New York 2-0, throwing seven shutout IP.
Twins are hosting Toronto this week, in the first round of this year’s playoffs, trying to put an end to a very long losing streak.
— Giants, Mets and Angels have already fired their managers; not sure why the front office people who assembled these underachieving teams still have their jobs, but they do.
Angels pay 3B Anthony Rendon more $$$ than Ohtani or Trout; the last three years, he’s played in 148 of a possible 486 games. This is Phil Nevin’s fault?
— Meanwhile, in the Bronx, New York has now spent over $3B in player salary since their last World Series title, yet GM Brian Cashman keeps his job- they’re even bringing manager Aaron Boone back next year. Go figure.
— Mariners’ P George Kirby threw a knuckleball in Seattle’s game vs Texas Sunday, to honor the late knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who passed away this weekend, at age 57.
— Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Falcons in England Sunday; they’re staying over the pond this week, and play Buffalo this Sunday. Does that give the Jaguars an advantage, staying overseas two weeks in a row?
— NC State is switching QB’s this week; sophomore MJ Morris will replace Brennan Armstrong, who transferred to State after starting for three years at Virginia. Wolfpack lost 13-10 at home to Louisville Friday, which prompted the change.
— Duke QB Riley Leonard has a high ankle sprain, is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough broke his leg, is out for the year.
— NBA’s Portland Trailblazers traded All-Star G Jrue Holiday to the Celtics, in exchange for C Robert Williams, G Malcolm Brogdon and two 1st-round draft picks, one in 2024, one in 2029.
The 2029 draft pick is likely going to be a kid who is in 7th grade right now.
— If the playoffs started today (wait, they do start today!!!)
Texas @ Tampa Bay
Toronto @ Minnesota
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Miami @ Philadelphia
— Damn, September went by quick; baseball’s regular season is over, training camps for NHL/NBA teams are starting, this is Week 5 in the NFL already. Time flies when you’re having fun.
Highest scoring college basketball teams last year, and their record:
86.1— Gonzaga, 31-6
85.4— Toledo, 27-8
83.3— Oral Roberts, 30-5
82.8— Southern Utah, 24-13
81.9— Youngstown State, 24-10
81.9— Arizona, 28-7
Quote of the Day
“I would tell you that I am a lot more critical of myself than anybody on the outside…….There is no sugarcoating this thing. We have no excuse. We can coach better and we can play better. Hopefully, we will do that.”
Florida Gators’ football coach Billy Napier
Saturday’s quiz
Who was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game?
Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.
Sunday’s quiz
AJ Hinch was manager of the Astros, before Dusty Baker.
********************************************
Tuesday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….
— Seahawks 24, Giants 3Seattle sacked Daniel Jones 12 times for 67 yards.
Leading 17-3, Seahawks scored on a 97-yard pick-6.
Seahawks won their last three games, scoring 37-37-24 points.
Seahawks are 18-12-3 ATS in last 33 games with spread of 3 or less points.
NFC West teams are 8-0-1 ATS outside the division.
Giants have been outscored 77-9 in first half of their games.
Big Blue has only one takeaway in four games (minus-6 turnovers)
Daniel Jones is 23-35-1 as an NFL starter.
Giants have been shut out in four of their eight halves this season.
Under is 20-5-1 in their last 26 home games.
— NFL divisional trends, thru four weeks:
NFC East— 5-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC North— 4-6-2 ATS outside the division
NFC South— 3-5-1 ATS outside the division
NFC West— 8-0-2 ATS outside the division
AFC East— 5-4 ATS outside the division
AFC North— 3-4-1 ATS outside the division
AFC South— 6-4 ATS outside the division
AFC West— 3-9 ATS outside the division
— College football trends, in conference games only:
AAC home favorites 2-5 ATS
ACC home underdogs 6-3 ATS
Big X favorites 9-3 ATS, 7-2 at home
Big 14 home underdogs 2-5 ATS
Conference USA favorites 4-2 ATS
MAC home teams are 1-6 ATS
Mountain West home teams are 4-3 ATS
Pac-12 home teams are 10-2 ATS
SEC favorites are 10-5 ATS
Sun Belt underdogs are 5-3 ATS
— Indiana Hoosiers fired their offensive coordinator Sunday; Hoosiers are 1-3 vs I-A teams, scoring 3-14-17 points in the three losses. Their lone I-A win was 29-27 over Akron.
The new OC is Rod Carey, the former head coach at Northern Illinois and Temple, where he went 64-50 with seven bowl appearances.
— Word of the Day— Bamboozle— to deceive someone by tricking them.
— One of the more unfortunate baseball trends is that the Minnesota Twins have lost their last 18 playoff games; their last playoff win was in Game 1 of the 2004 ALDS, when Johan Santana blanked New York 2-0, throwing seven shutout IP.
Twins are hosting Toronto this week, in the first round of this year’s playoffs, trying to put an end to a very long losing streak.
— Giants, Mets and Angels have already fired their managers; not sure why the front office people who assembled these underachieving teams still have their jobs, but they do.
Angels pay 3B Anthony Rendon more $$$ than Ohtani or Trout; the last three years, he’s played in 148 of a possible 486 games. This is Phil Nevin’s fault?
— Meanwhile, in the Bronx, New York has now spent over $3B in player salary since their last World Series title, yet GM Brian Cashman keeps his job- they’re even bringing manager Aaron Boone back next year. Go figure.
— Mariners’ P George Kirby threw a knuckleball in Seattle’s game vs Texas Sunday, to honor the late knuckleballer Tim Wakefield, who passed away this weekend, at age 57.
— Jacksonville Jaguars beat the Falcons in England Sunday; they’re staying over the pond this week, and play Buffalo this Sunday. Does that give the Jaguars an advantage, staying overseas two weeks in a row?
— NC State is switching QB’s this week; sophomore MJ Morris will replace Brennan Armstrong, who transferred to State after starting for three years at Virginia. Wolfpack lost 13-10 at home to Louisville Friday, which prompted the change.
— Duke QB Riley Leonard has a high ankle sprain, is expected to miss 2-3 weeks.
Texas Tech QB Tyler Shough broke his leg, is out for the year.
— NBA’s Portland Trailblazers traded All-Star G Jrue Holiday to the Celtics, in exchange for C Robert Williams, G Malcolm Brogdon and two 1st-round draft picks, one in 2024, one in 2029.
The 2029 draft pick is likely going to be a kid who is in 7th grade right now.
— If the playoffs started today (wait, they do start today!!!)
Texas @ Tampa Bay
Toronto @ Minnesota
Arizona @ Milwaukee
Miami @ Philadelphia
— Damn, September went by quick; baseball’s regular season is over, training camps for NHL/NBA teams are starting, this is Week 5 in the NFL already. Time flies when you’re having fun.
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
— Rangers 3, Rays 0— Montgomery tossed 7 shutout IP.
— Tampa Bay is 5-13 in its last 18 playoff games.
— Twins 3, Blue Jays 1— Royce Lewis homered twice.
— Minnesota ends its 18-game postseason losing streak.
— Arizona 6, Brewers 3— Arizona hit three HR’s off of Burnes
— Phillies 4, Marlins 1— Wheeler allowed one run in 6.2 IP.
Quote of the Day
“We playing football. He’s mad he got hit? What do most quarterbacks do when they don’t want to get hit? They go down. I don’t really know what else to tell him about that.”
Giants’ LB Isaiah Simmons, talking about Monday night’s game with Seattle
Wednesday’s quiz
Before last night, who was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game?
Tuesday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.
Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.
*******************************************
First drive of a game:
Who game plans best during the week?
— 49ers have three TD’s and FG on their first drive of a game, 24 points (41 plays, 255 yards).
Denver has three TD’s on their first drives (35 plays, 236 yards)
Rams have two TD’s, two FG’s on their first drive (44 plays, 248 yards)
— Miami is averaging 10.8 yards/play on its opening drives (28 plays, 302 yards); they’ve scored two TD’s and field goal on those drives.
— Minnesota’s offense has run 21 plays for 129 yards on opening drives, but the opponents’ defense has outscored the Viking offense, 7-0, thanks to a 99-yard pick-6. Not good.
— Giants/Browns have both been outscored 7-3 on their first drives. Giants gave up a blocked FG for a TD, Browns gave up a defensive TD.
— In their four games, Jets have run 14 plays for 32 yards on their first drive.
Steelers have run 17 plays for 24 yards.
Jaguars have run 22 plays for 71 yards.
None of those teams have scored on an opening drive.
First drive of second half:
Who makes the best offensive adjustments at halftime?
— Green Bay has three TD’s on their first drive of 2nd half (29 plays, 222 yards)
Eagles have two TDs, two FG’s on their first drive of 2nd half (34 plays, 160 yards)
— Dallas has run 45 plays for 234 yards on their first drive of 3rd quarter, but scored only one TD- they kicked three FG’s, too.
— Surprisingly, Arizona has run 33 plays for 227 yards, scoring 18 points, part of why they’re 3-1 against the spread already.
— Buffalo has run 36 plays for 208 yards, but only has a TD and a FG to show for it.
— Detroit has run only 10 plays for 12 yards on its first 3rd quarter drive; three 3/outs and a lost fumble. They only gained 84 yards on 16 plays on their first drive of the game, surprising.
— There are four teams who haven’t scored on their first drive of third quarter:
Denver 20 plays, 129 yards
Detroit 10 plays, 12 yards
Houston 19 plays, 14 yards
Las Vegas 23 plays, 79 yards, 2 INT’s.
First drive of all eight halves:
— Rams/Eagles play each other this week; they also share the NFL lead with 33 points scored on their first drive of a half.
Dolphins, Packers, 49ers are next, with 31 points each.
— Dallas has gained 446 yards on 79 plays (29 points) on their first drive of a half, the most yards of any team, followed by the Rams (77 plays, 438 yards), Eagles (76 plays, 425 yards)
— Giants have run 71 plays for 320 yards, good for 10 points, but they also gave up a TD on a blocked FG, so they’re only +3 in points on first drives.
— Vikings have run 47 plays for 236 yards, scoring a TD, giving up a TD to the defense.
— Houston Texans have run total of 41 plays for only 83 yards on their first drive of a half, fewest yards in the league.
Detroit, surprisingly, has run 26 plays for only 96 yards.
NFL games are relatively short (nine or so drives per team); the first drive of each half makes up maybe 20-25% of all drives, which is significant.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at which defenses do best/worst in this situation.
— Rangers 3, Rays 0— Montgomery tossed 7 shutout IP.
— Tampa Bay is 5-13 in its last 18 playoff games.
— Twins 3, Blue Jays 1— Royce Lewis homered twice.
— Minnesota ends its 18-game postseason losing streak.
— Arizona 6, Brewers 3— Arizona hit three HR’s off of Burnes
— Phillies 4, Marlins 1— Wheeler allowed one run in 6.2 IP.
Quote of the Day
“We playing football. He’s mad he got hit? What do most quarterbacks do when they don’t want to get hit? They go down. I don’t really know what else to tell him about that.”
Giants’ LB Isaiah Simmons, talking about Monday night’s game with Seattle
Wednesday’s quiz
Before last night, who was manager of the Minnesota Twins last time they won a playoff game?
Tuesday’s quiz
Mark Sanchez was the Jets’ quarterback, last time they played in a playoff game.
Monday’s quiz
Rex Ryan was coach of the New Jersey Jets, last time they made the NFL playoffs, in 2010.
*******************************************
Wednesday’s Den: How NFL offenses are doing on first drive of a half
Today we’re looking at how NFL offenses do on their first drive of each half; four games for each team, so eight drives for everyone.First drive of a game:
Who game plans best during the week?
— 49ers have three TD’s and FG on their first drive of a game, 24 points (41 plays, 255 yards).
Denver has three TD’s on their first drives (35 plays, 236 yards)
Rams have two TD’s, two FG’s on their first drive (44 plays, 248 yards)
— Miami is averaging 10.8 yards/play on its opening drives (28 plays, 302 yards); they’ve scored two TD’s and field goal on those drives.
— Minnesota’s offense has run 21 plays for 129 yards on opening drives, but the opponents’ defense has outscored the Viking offense, 7-0, thanks to a 99-yard pick-6. Not good.
— Giants/Browns have both been outscored 7-3 on their first drives. Giants gave up a blocked FG for a TD, Browns gave up a defensive TD.
— In their four games, Jets have run 14 plays for 32 yards on their first drive.
Steelers have run 17 plays for 24 yards.
Jaguars have run 22 plays for 71 yards.
None of those teams have scored on an opening drive.
First drive of second half:
Who makes the best offensive adjustments at halftime?
— Green Bay has three TD’s on their first drive of 2nd half (29 plays, 222 yards)
Eagles have two TDs, two FG’s on their first drive of 2nd half (34 plays, 160 yards)
— Dallas has run 45 plays for 234 yards on their first drive of 3rd quarter, but scored only one TD- they kicked three FG’s, too.
— Surprisingly, Arizona has run 33 plays for 227 yards, scoring 18 points, part of why they’re 3-1 against the spread already.
— Buffalo has run 36 plays for 208 yards, but only has a TD and a FG to show for it.
— Detroit has run only 10 plays for 12 yards on its first 3rd quarter drive; three 3/outs and a lost fumble. They only gained 84 yards on 16 plays on their first drive of the game, surprising.
— There are four teams who haven’t scored on their first drive of third quarter:
Denver 20 plays, 129 yards
Detroit 10 plays, 12 yards
Houston 19 plays, 14 yards
Las Vegas 23 plays, 79 yards, 2 INT’s.
First drive of all eight halves:
— Rams/Eagles play each other this week; they also share the NFL lead with 33 points scored on their first drive of a half.
Dolphins, Packers, 49ers are next, with 31 points each.
— Dallas has gained 446 yards on 79 plays (29 points) on their first drive of a half, the most yards of any team, followed by the Rams (77 plays, 438 yards), Eagles (76 plays, 425 yards)
— Giants have run 71 plays for 320 yards, good for 10 points, but they also gave up a TD on a blocked FG, so they’re only +3 in points on first drives.
— Vikings have run 47 plays for 236 yards, scoring a TD, giving up a TD to the defense.
— Houston Texans have run total of 41 plays for only 83 yards on their first drive of a half, fewest yards in the league.
Detroit, surprisingly, has run 26 plays for only 96 yards.
NFL games are relatively short (nine or so drives per team); the first drive of each half makes up maybe 20-25% of all drives, which is significant.
Tomorrow, we’ll look at which defenses do best/worst in this situation.
