CNOTES COLLEGE BASKETBALL 2020-2021 NEWS/TRENDS/BEST BETS THRU NCAA CHAMPIONSHIP !

[Cnotes53]

2020-21 college basketbal

Sunday?s NCAA games

Florida State (4) vs Michigan (1)
Florida State (18-6)
? ranked #13 by KenPom
? Tempo: #89
? Experience: #100
? Continuity: #103
? FSU is 4-3 in its last seven games, after a 14-3 start.
? Seminoles have #21 eFG% defense in country.
? Florida State is shooting 38.2% on the arc (#16)
? Deep team; they?re #25 in bench minutes.
? Florida State is the tallest team in the country.
? Since 1997, Hamilton is 1-3 in Sweet 16 games.

Michigan (22-4)
? ranked #3 by KenPom
? Tempo: #246
? Experience: #58
? Continuity: #146
? Michigan is 4-3 in its last seven games, after an 18-1 start.
? Key player Livers missed last three games (check status)
? Michigan has #6 eFG% defense in country.
? Wolverines are shooting 38.5% on arc (#11)
? Since 1998, Michigan is 1-2 SU in Sweet 16 games.

? Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.
? Three years ago, Michigan beat Florida State 58-54 in a regional final.

Creighton (5) @ Gonzaga (1)
Creighton (22-8)
? ranked #20 by KenPom
? Tempo: #143
? Experience: #40
? Continuity: #18
? Creighton won five of its last six games.
? Bluejays are shooting 55.9% inside the arc (#10)
? Creighton has #28 eFG% defense in country.
? Bluejays beat Cal-Santa Barbara/Ohio to get here.
? This is as far as Creighton has ever gotten in this event.

Gonzaga (28-0)
? ranked #1 by KenPom
? Tempo: #4
? Experience: #248
? Continuity: #179
? Gonzaga has one win this season by less than 10 points.
? Gonzaga?s first two tournament wins were by 43-16 points.
? Zags are shooting 63.6% inside arc (#1)
? Gonzaga gets 57.2% of its points on 2-point shots (#30)
? Under Few, Gonzaga is 2-6 in Sweet 16 games, winning in 2015, 2019.

? Last five tournaments, #1-seeds are 11-3 ATS vs 4/5-seeds in Sweet 16.

Oregon (7) vs USC (6)
Oregon (21-6)
? ranked #17 by KenPom
? Tempo: #227
? Experience: #29
? Continuity: #266
? Oregon is 7-1 since their loss at USC February 22.
? Oregon won 12 of their last 14 games.
? Ducks are shooting 38.2% on arc (#15)
? Oregon is 5-2 this season vs top 50 teams.
? Under Altman, Ducks are 2-2 SU in Sweet 16 games.

USC (24-7)
? ranked #6 by KenPom
? Tempo: #236
? Experience: #201
? Continuity: #317
? USC won five of its last six games.
? USC has #7 eFG% defense in country.
? Opponents are shooting 41.4% inside arc (#1)
? Trojans are shooting only 64.3% on foul line (#328)
? USC gave up 56-51 points in its wins last week.
? USC last made the Elite 8 in 2001, when Henry Bibby was coach.

? Since 2002, when conference rivals meet in NCAA Tournament, from the Sweet 16 on, underdog was 7-4 ATS in those games.
? Oregon lost 72-58 at USC February 22; game was 43-22 at the half.
? Since 1987, favorites are 3-3 ATS when #6-7 seeds meet in this round.

UCLA (11) vs Alabama (2)
UCLA (20-9)
? ranked #22 by KenPom
? Tempo: #337
? Experience: #279
? Continuity: #29
? UCLA has lost four in row before winning three games last week.
? UCLA is shooting 37.4% on the arc (#28)
? Bruins are 7-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.
? Since 2009, UCLA is 11-7 in NCAAs.
? Cronin is 9-11 in NCAAs, 3-5 after the first round.

Alabama (26-6)
? ranked #8 by KenPom
? Tempo: #12
? Experience: #136
? Continuity: #152
? Alabama won eight in row, 11 of last 12 games.
? Crimson Tide has #17 eFG% defense in country.
? Alabama gets 40.1% of its points on 3-pointers (#15)
? Alabama is grabbing 32.1% of its missed shots (#53)
? Crimson Tide hasn?t been this far in the last 24 years.

? Since 2012, #11-seeds are 6-2 ATS in Sweet 16 games.

NIT Final
Memphis vs Mississippi State
Memphis (19-8)
? ranked #33 by KenPom
? Tempo: #49
? Experience: #323
? Continuity: #78
? Memphis won 13 of its last 16 games.
? Tigers have #5 eFG% defense in country.
? Memphis is turning ball over 21.8% of time (#313)
? Tigers are shooting only 61.4% on foul line (#341)
? Memphis is 9-3 outside the AAC (non-conf schedule #198)
? Tigers made 14-27 on arc yesterday, scored 1.32 ppp.

Mississippi State (18-14)
? ranked #63 by KenPom
? Tempo: #301
? Experience: #315
? Continuity: #253
? Bulldogs are 7-4 in their last 11 games.
? Miss State is grabbing 36.3% of their missed shots (#8)
? Bulldogs have #39 eFG% defense in country.
? Miss State is turning ball over 22.2% of time (#318)
? Bulldogs are shooting 65.9% on foul line (#311)
? Miss State allowed 65.7 ppg in its three NIT wins.
? Bulldogs made 10-20 on arc, never trailed in yesterday?s win.

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Sunday, March 28

-----------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

627FLORIDA ST -628 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the current season.

641CREIGHTON -642 GONZAGA
CREIGHTON is 8-0 ATS (8 Units) vs. teams who are called for 3+ less fouls/game than their opponents over the last 2 seasons.

643OREGON -644 USC
USC is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) in road games versus teams who attempt 21 or more 3 point shots/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

643OREGON -644 USC
USC is 12-3 ATS (8.7 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.



----------------------------------



NCAAB

Sunday, March 28

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Oregon @ USC
Oregon
Oregon is 16-5 SU in its last 21 games when playing USC
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oregon's last 7 games when playing USC
USC
USC is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oregon
USC is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oregon

 

[Cnotes53]

SUNDAY, MARCH 28
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

MSST at MEM 12:00 PM
MSST +4.0..........64 - 77......LOSER
O 135.5........................WINNER

CREI at GONZ 02:10 PM
GONZ -13.5...............65 - 83.........WINNER
U 158.5.

LT at CSU 03:00 PM
CSU -1.0.............................76 - 74.....LOSER
U 140.5...................LOSER

FSU at MICH 05:00 PM
FSU +2.0..........58 - 76...........LOSER
U 143.0............................WINNER

UCLA at ALA 07:15 PM
UCLA +6.5................88 - 78....WINNER
O 145.0.........................WINNER

ORE at USC 09:45 PM
ORE +2.0............68 - 82.....WINNER
O 138.0.......................WINNER



2021 NCAA AND NIT TOURNAMENT BEST BETS

DATE...............W-L-T...................%.................UNITS

03/28/2021...........7-4-0.................63.63%.........+ 13.00
03/27/2021...........4-5-0.................44.44%..........-7.50
03/25/2021...........3-3-0.................50.00%..........-1.50
03/24/2021...........0-2-0.................00.00%..........-11.00
03/23/2021...........1-3.0.................25.00%..........-11.50
03/22/2021...........9-10-0...............47.36%..........-10.00
03/21/2021...........4-9-0.................30.76.............- 29.50
03/20/2021..........13-11-0...............53.16.............+ 4.50
03/19/2021..........12-13-0...............48.00%..........-11.50
03/18/2021............3-4-1................ 42.85%...........- 7.00
03/17/2021............4-0-0...............100.00%..........+20.00

Totals...................60 - 64...............48.38%.............- 52.00

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Monday's six-pack

Active career leaders in OPS:
.9996? Mike Trout
.937? Joey Votto
.931? Miguel Cabrera
.924? Albert Pujols
.914? Paul Goldschmidt
.905? Giancarlo Stanton

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 548,130
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Monday's Den: Wrapping up a sports weekend??.

13) This is the state of college basketball these days:

In February, North Carolina needed couple of games to update their resume; they added mid-week non-conference home games with Northeastern, Marquette, Won one, lost one. Didn?t seem like a big deal at the time.

When Carolina beat Northeastern 82-62 February 17, Huskies? sophomore PG Tyson Walker scored 27 points, and showed up on the radar of the big $$$ schools who like to poach players from low and mid-major schools. Happens all the time now.

Makes college basketball a lot more like baseball, but I?m an Oakland A?s fan, and it drives me batty when players bolt for greener pa$ture$. Loyalty is in scarce supply these days.

Walker averaged 18.8 ppg and 4.8 assists/game as a sophomore at Northeastern, was named the CAA?s Defensive Player of the Year; he committed to Michigan State this weekend.

Not sure what Northeastern is going to do for a point guard next year, none of the national media seemed too interested in that.

12) UCLA 88, Alabama 78 OT:
? Crimson Tide went 11-25 on foul line, in an overtime loss.
? UCLA scored 23 points in the 5:00 overtime.
? This is Mick Cronin?s 12th NCAA tourney, his first regional final.

11) Baylor 62, Villanova 51:
? Villanova led 30-23 at halftime.
? Baylor was +10 in turnover margin (16-6)
? Teams combined to make 6-36 on the arc.

10) Arkansas 72, Oral Roberts 70:
? ORU led 46-34 with 15:24 left in the game.
? Eric Musselman is 5-3 in NCAA tourney games; his team trailed by 10+ points in all five of the wins.
? Oral Roberts were almost first-ever #15-seed to make a regional final.

9) Gonzaga 83, Creighton 65:
? Gonzaga is 29-0, has one win by fewer than 10 points.
? Zags took 33 shots inside arc, made 25 of them (75.8%)
? Gonzaga had 23 assists on 32 made field goals.

8) Oregon State 65, Loyola Chi 58:
? Beavers are 2nd-ever #12-seed (Missouri ?02) to make a regional final.
? OSU held Ramblers to 33.3% from the floor.
? On February 20, Oregon State was 11-11; they?ve gone 9-1 since then.

7) Michigan 76, Florida State 58:
? Surprisingly easy win for the Wolverines.
? FSU shot only 40%, looked lost on offense.
? Michigan scored 81.3 ppg in first three tourney wins.

6) USC 82, Oregon 68:
? Trojans made 10-17 shots on arc, scored 1.22 ppp.
? In two games vs Oregon this year, Trojans led by 19-21 at the half.
? Pac-12 is 12-2 in NCAA Tournament, including this game.

5) Houston 62, Syracuse 46:
? Cougars won their last ten games.
? Syracuse shot 28% from floor, 5-23 on arc.
? Average total in the four Saturday games: 126.5.

4) Memphis 77, Mississippi State 64:
? Tigers win the NIT; in their last two games, they made 24-49 3-pointers.
? This game was 33-33 at halftime.
? Memphis didn?t play any seniors; they should be good next year.

3) If Houston beats Oregon State tonight, they?ll have made the Final Four by winning four games in their region, against the #15-10-11-12 seeds. That doesn?t happen often.

2) Indiana Hoosiers hired alum Mike Woodson as their basketball coach; Woodson coached the Atlanta Hawks for six years, the Knicks for three more; he scored 14 ppg in his 11-year NBA career. His last head coaching gig was 2014; he?s been an assistant coach since.

Utah poached coach Craig Smith from in-state rival Utah State to be its next head man. Few days ago, Smith told his Utah State players not to have any concerns about him leaving- he was staying right where he was, sure as sure could be.

Money does strange things to people.

1) I like the idea they enacted this year; the 2nd weekend of the tournament being Saturday-Tuesday instead of Thursday-Sunday. Not sure what next year?s schedule will be like, maybe no one does; when you change the schedule once every 35 years, people get used to the way it was.

 

[Cnotes53]

653ARKANSAS -654 BAYLOR
BAYLOR is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

655OREGON ST -656 HOUSTON
OREGON ST is 14-0 ATS (14 Units) after playing 3 consecutive games as an underdog in the current season.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, March 29

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, March 29

Arkansas (3) vs Baylor (1)
Arkansas (25-6)
? ranked #18 by KenPom
? Tempo: #17
? Experience: #239
? Continuity: #339
? Arkansas won 12 of its last 13 games.
? Arkansas is 11-0 outside the SEC (non-conf schedule #273)
? Razorbacks gave up 78+ points in all six of their losses.
? Razorbacks won last two games by a hoop each.
? Opponents are shooting 46.3% inside arc (#47)
? Musselman is 5-3 in NCAA Tournament games; his team trailed by 10+ points in all five of the wins.

Baylor (25-2)
? ranked #2 by KenPom
? Tempo: #179
? Experience: #85
? Continuity: #32
? Baylor is 8-2 since its 21-day COVID pause.
? Bears are shooting 40.8% on the arc (#2)
? Baylor forces turnovers 24.8% of time (#3)
? Baylor gave up 56.3 ppg in its first three tourney wins.
? Bears are grabbing 36.8% of their missed shots (#6)
? Under Drew, Baylor lost Elite 8 games in 2010, 2012.

? Since 2007, in regional finals between #1-#3 seeds: favorites are 8-4 ATS.

Oregon State (12) vs Houston (2)
Oregon State (20-12)
? ranked #43 by KenPom
? Tempo: #305
? Experience: #65
? Continuity: #154
? Oregon State won six in row, nine of its last ten games.
? Oregon State is getting 21.5% of its points on foul line (#40)
? Beavers are shooting 46.8% inside arc (#278)
? OSU won Pac-12 tournament for first time, after they were 5th in regular season.
? Beavers? wins last week were their first tournament wins since 1982
? OSU gave up 61.3 ppg in its first three NCAA games.

Houston (27-3)
? ranked #3 by KenPom
? Tempo: #326
? Experience: #142
? Continuity: #107
? Houston has the best eFG% defense in country.
? Opponents are shooting 29.0% on arc (#8)
? Cougars won their last ten games, six of them by 24+ points.
? So far in this tournament, Houston has played seeds #15-10-11.
? Cougars allowed 54 ppg in first three NCAA games.
? Sampson made 2002 Final Four with Oklahoma, then lost in the Elite 8 the next year.

? Oregon State is 2nd #12-seed ever to play in regional final; Missouri (+6.5) lost 81-75 to Oklahoma in 2002.
? Since 2004, #2-seeds are 3-8 ATS as a favorite in regional finals.

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, MARCH 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ORST at HOU 07:15 PM
ORST +8.0...........61 - 67.........WINNER
U 130.0...........................WINNER

ARK at BAY 09:57 PM
ARK +7.0...........72 - 81..............LOSER
U 149.5..................LOSER



2021 NCAA AND NIT TOURNAMENT BEST BETS

DATE...............W-L-T...................%.................UNITS

03/29/2021...........2-2-0.................50.00%.........- 1.00
03/28/2021...........6-5-0.................54.54%%......+2.50
03/27/2021...........4-5-0.................44.44%..........-7.50
03/25/2021...........3-3-0.................50.00%..........-1.50
03/24/2021...........0-2-0.................00.00%..........-11.00
03/23/2021...........1-3.0.................25.00%..........-11.50
03/22/2021...........9-10-0...............47.36%..........-10.00
03/21/2021...........4-9-0.................30.76.............- 29.50
03/20/2021..........13-11-0...............53.16.............+ 4.50
03/19/2021..........12-13-0...............48.00%..........-11.50
03/18/2021............3-4-1................ 42.85%...........- 7.00
03/17/2021............4-0-0...............100.00%..........+20.00

Totals...................61 - 67...............47.65%.............- 63.50

REVISED TOTALS AS I HAD OREGON AS A WINNER......

 

[Cnotes53]

MONDAY, MARCH 29
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

ORST at HOU 07:15 PM
ORST +8.0...........61 - 67.........WINNER
U 130.0...........................WINNER

ARK at BAY 09:57 PM
ARK +7.0...........72 - 81..............LOSER
U 149.5..................LOSER



2021 NCAA AND NIT TOURNAMENT BEST BETS

DATE...............W-L-T...................%.................UNITS

03/29/2021...........2-2-0.................50.00%.........- 1.00
03/28/2021...........6-5-0.................54.54%%......+2.50
03/27/2021...........4-5-0.................44.44%..........-7.50
03/25/2021...........3-3-0.................50.00%..........-1.50
03/24/2021...........0-2-0.................00.00%..........-11.00
03/23/2021...........1-3.0.................25.00%..........-11.50
03/22/2021...........9-10-0...............47.36%..........-10.00
03/21/2021...........4-9-0.................30.76.............- 29.50
03/20/2021..........13-11-0...............53.16.............+ 4.50
03/19/2021..........12-13-0...............48.00%..........-11.50
03/18/2021............3-4-1................ 42.85%...........- 7.00
03/17/2021............4-0-0...............100.00%..........+20.00

Totals...................61 - 67...............47.65%.............- 63.50

REVISED TOTALS AS I HAD OREGON AS A WINNER......

 

[Cnotes53]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Since 2000, biggest upsets in March Madness:
+14? Bucknell over Kansas, 2005
+15? Oral Roberts over Ohio State, 2021
+16.5? Middle Tennessee State over Michigan State, 2016
+17.5? Hampton over Iowa State, 2001
+20.5? UMBC over Virginia, 2018
+21? Norfolk State over Missouri, 2012

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 549,664
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.


**********

Armadillo: Tuesday's Den: American League trends and notes??.

Baltimore
? Last made playoffs in 2016.
? combined record, last 3 years: 126-258
? went 11-9 vs NL East LY, 14-26 vs their division rivals.
? 7-12 in one-run games LY,

Boston
? Made playoffs 10 of last 18 years.
? 11-20 at home, 13-16 on road LY.
? 7-17 vs lefty starting pitchers LY, 17-19 vs righties.
? Why did they trade Mookie Betts?

Chicago White Sox
? Made playoffs LY for first time since 2008; their last winning season was 2012.
? went 2-8 in last 10 games, then lost in playoffs, then fired the manager.
? 76-year old Tony LaRussa is the old/new skipper; he last managed in 2011.
? 14-0 vs lefty starters, 21-25 vs righties LY. 14-0!!!!
? New closer Hendriks had 39 saves last two years; in the 8 years before that, he had one.

Cleveland
? Last losing season was in 2012.
? Made playoffs four of last five years.
? Letting SS Lindor bolt to the Mets will obviously hurt them.
? Won 8 of last 10 games LY, then lost 12-3/10-9 in playoffs.

Detroit
? Went combined 198-345 the last four years.
? Last made the playoffs in 2014.
? 11-7 vs NL Central LY, went 12-28 vs division rivals.
? 7-4 vs lefties, 16-31 vs righties LY.

Houston
? 29-31 LY, still made playoffs for 5th time in six years.
? went 2-7 in extra innings last year.
? 12-10 vs lefties, 17-21 vs righties LY.
? Will miss departed Springer, injured Verlander.

Kansas City
? won World Series six short years ago.
? last three years, they?re a combined 143-241
? 15-15 at home, 11-19 on road LY.
? Adding 1B Carlos Santana should upgrade the offense.

LA Angels
? haven?t made made playoffs since 2014.
? last time they won a playoff game? 2009.
? 16-15 at home, 10-19 on road last year.
? went 7-13 vs NL West, 19-21 vs their division rivals.

Minnesota
? Lost an amazing 18 playoff games in a row.
? made playoffs three of last four years.
? Were 24-7 at home, 12-17 on road last year.
? Last two years, went a combined 137-85.

A?s
? made playoffs last three years, and six of last nine.
? were 22-10 at home, 14-14 on road LY.
? went 6-0 in extra-inning games last year.
? 11-3 vs lefty starters, 25-21 vs right starters.

Bronx
? made playoffs 22 of last 26 years.
? 11-18 on road, 22-9 at home LY.
? 26-19 vs righty starters, 7-8 vs lefties LY.
? need Judge/Stanton to both stay healthy for once.

Seattle
? Last made playoffs in 2001, longest active drought in MLB
? have been over .500 three times in last seven years.
? 20-20 vs division rivals, 7-13 vs NL West LY.
? 14-10 at home, 13-23 on road last year.
? Have already committed to using 6-man rotation at start of this year.

Tampa Bay
? made playoffs last two years, lost World Series 4-2 LY.
? went 40-20 LY, best record in American League.
? went 14-5 in one-run games, which suggests regression this year.
? 31-12 vs righties, 9-8 vs lefties LY.

Texas
? last made playoffs in 2016.
? Last four years, they?re combined 56 games under .500.
? went 6-24 on road LY; were 16-14 in their new domed stadium.
? minus-88 run differential LY was worst in major leagues.

Toronto
? made playoffs 3 of last 6 years
? from 2017-19, were a combined 54 games under .500.
? were 17-9 at home, 15-19 on road LY.
? went 13-10 in one-run games LY, T2 for most in MLB.

 

[Cnotes53]

657USC -658 GONZAGA
USC is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. top caliber teams - outscoring their opponents by 12+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

659UCLA -660 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) versus teams who are called for 17 or less fouls/game in the current season.

659UCLA -660 MICHIGAN
MICHIGAN is 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) after 2 straight games where they had 5 or less steals in the current season.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Tuesday, March 30

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, March 30

UCLA (11) vs Michigan (1)
UCLA (21-9)
? ranked #16 by KenPom
? Tempo: #337
? Experience: #279
? Continuity: #29
? Two of UCLA?s four tournament wins have been in overtime.
? UCLA is shooting 37.2% on the arc (#34)
? Bruins are 8-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.
? Since 2009, UCLA is 12-7 in NCAAs.
? Two Bruins played 42:00/45:00 in Sunday?s win.
? This is Cronin?s 12th NCAA Tournament, his first regional final.
? Pac-12 teams are 12-2 in this tournament; one of losses was Oregon vs USC.

Michigan (23-4)
? ranked #4 by KenPom
? Tempo: #247
? Experience: #58
? Continuity: #145
? Michigan is 5-3 in its last eight games, after an 18-1 start.
? Key player Livers missed last four games (check status)
? Michigan has #7 eFG% defense in country.
? Wolverines are shooting 38.3% on arc (#11)
? Michigan scored 81.3 ppg in its first three NCAA games.
? Michigan made Final Four in 2018, lost regional final in 2014.

? Since 2002, #10 or lower seeds are 7-2 ATS in regional finals.
? Since 2010, #1-seeds are 9-13-1 ATS in regional finals.

USC (6) vs Gonzaga (1)
USC (25-7)
? ranked #6 by KenPom
? Tempo: #234
? Experience: #201
? Continuity: #317
? USC won six of its last seven games.
? USC has #6 eFG% defense in country.
? Opponents are shooting 41.5% inside arc (#1)
? Trojans are shooting only 64.6% on foul line (#327)
? USC gave up 58.3 ppg in its first three tourney wins.
? USC scored 79.7 ppg in its first three tourney games.
? Pac-12 teams are 12-2 SU in this tournament.

Gonzaga (29-0)
? ranked #1 by KenPom
? Tempo: #6
? Experience: #248
? Continuity: #179
? Gonzaga has one win this season by less than 10 points.
? Gonzaga?s first three tournament wins were by 43-16-18 points.
? Zags are shooting 63.9% inside arc (#1)
? Gonzaga gets 57.3% of its points on 2-point shots (#29)
? Under Few, Gonzaga is 1-2 in Elite 8 games- they won in 2017.

? Since 2010, #1-seeds are 9-13-1 ATS in regional finals.

 

[Cnotes53]

TUESDAY, MARCH 30
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

USC at GONZ 07:15 PM
USC +8.5...........66 - 85......LOSER
O 153.0........................LOSER

UCLA at MICH 09:57 PM
MICH -6.5........51 - 49.....LOSER
U 136.0....................WINNER



2021 NCAA AND NIT TOURNAMENT BEST BETS

DATE...............W-L-T...................%.................UNITS

03/30/2021...........1-3-0.................25.00%........- 11.50
03/29/2021...........2-2-0.................50.00%.........- 1.00
03/28/2021...........6-5-0.................54.54%%......+2.50
03/27/2021...........4-5-0.................44.44%..........-7.50
03/25/2021...........3-3-0.................50.00%..........-1.50
03/24/2021...........0-2-0.................00.00%..........-11.00
03/23/2021...........1-3.0.................25.00%..........-11.50
03/22/2021...........9-10-0...............47.36%..........-10.00
03/21/2021...........4-9-0.................30.76.............- 29.50
03/20/2021..........13-11-0...............53.16.............+ 4.50
03/19/2021..........12-13-0...............48.00%..........-11.50
03/18/2021............3-4-1................ 42.85%...........- 7.00
03/17/2021............4-0-0...............100.00%..........+20.00

Totals...................62 - 70...............46.96%.............- 75.00

 

[Cnotes53]

🔥 The Hot Ticket

No. 1 Gonzaga vs. No. 6 USC, 7:15 p.m. | TV: TBS

The Pick: Under 153 (-110): I cannot wait to watch this game tonight, as it's a truly interesting matchup. Ken Pomeroy, the person behind KenPom ratings, has mentioned the possibility for an all-time matchup for a while now. You see, Gonzaga comes into tonight's game shooting 63.9% from two-point range this season. It's the highest mark ever by a team in the KenPom era (dating back to 2002). Then there's USC, which has allowed opponents to shoot only 41.5% from two this season, the lowest mark of the KenPom era.

In other words, it's the greatest two-point shooting team of the century going against the greatest two-point shooting defense of the century. There are also conflicting styles, with Gonzaga ranking 19th in the country in possessions per game at 76.3, while USC is much slower, ranking 215th at 70.2. Also, while Gonzaga is a complete team, it's a big team, and it has used its size to overwhelm most of its opponents this season. That's not the case with USC, one of the tallest, longest teams in the nation.

So, yeah, this is a tremendous matchup. One that's very difficult to handicap. One in which I don't see a lot of value on the spread (if it somehow gets to Gonzaga -7.5 or USC +9.5, then we'll reconsider). I think Gonzaga's been a better rebounding team overall, and it's the much better team at the free-throw line. Those two areas will likely prove to be the difference in this game, but it's not a significant enough advantage with this spread.

Instead, I like the under. Both outcomes for this game see USC keeping close and possibly winning through its defense or Gonzaga blowing the Trojans out by suffocating their offense. Either way, the game stays under the total.

Key Trend: I hope you appreciate this trend because I had to dig for it: the under is 6-2 in Elite Eight games with a total of 145 or higher since 2016.

Here's what SportsLine is saying about the game: The Advanced Computer Model has a slight lean on the spread in this matchup.



--------------



💰 The Picks

No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 11 UCLA, 9:57 p.m. | TV: TBS

The Pick: UCLA +6.5 (-110) -- Did you know we may have met before? Seriously, if you've been driving around town and you saw a man standing on a corner yelling, "Michigan's basketball team is a lot better than anybody is giving it credit for right now," that was me. Because Michigan has seemingly been forgotten about recently. I assume it's partially the injury to Isaiah Livers, but that it's also people extrapolating the Big Ten's struggles to mean Michigan isn't that good. Well, the Big 12's struggles didn't stop Baylor from reaching the Final Four, and Michigan is one of the three teams in this tournament that I consider to be the genuine title contenders.

Having said that, I still like UCLA to cover this spread even if I expect Michigan to win this game far more often than it loses it. The total for this game is at 136, and it's been dropping for a reason. These teams don't move quickly on offense. That limits overall possessions, and it's hard to pull away from a team when there are fewer possessions to do it in. The outside shooting of Johnny Juzang, Jaime Jaquez and Jules Bernard will keep UCLA within range, while Michigan's interior defense will keep the Wolverines in the lead.

Key Trend: Double-digit seeds are 11-2 ATS on the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament since 2016, including 4-1 this season.

 

[Cnotes53]

Wednesday?s 6-pack
Odds for the Masters next week:
8-1? Dustin Johnson
9-1? Bryson DeChambeau
11-1? Jon Rahm, Justin Thomas
14-1? Rory McIlroy, Jordan Spieth
20-1? Xander Schauffele, Brooks Koepka
22-1? Patrick Cantlay

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 550,903
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?A thief is a thief, whether he steals a diamond or a cucumber.?
Old Indian proverb

Wednesday?s quiz
When was last time three #1-seeds made the Final Four?

Tuesday?s quiz
Last time Kelvin Sampson made it to the Final Four, he was coaching Oklahoma.

Monday?s quiz
Washington?s Bradley Beal is leading the NBA in scoring this season, at 31.3 ppg.

*************************

Wednesday?s Den: Mid-week musings??..

13) UCLA 51, Michigan 49:
? UCLA lost their last four games before the NCAA?s; they were down 5 with 1:27 left in the play-in game, against Michigan State.
? Michigan was 6-11 on foul line in a 2-point loss.
? Bruins have played six OT games this year; two of them were in the NCAA?s.
? Here?s the thing: if Mick Cronin?s relatives filled out brackets, no way they picked the Bruins.

12) Baylor 81, Arkansas 72:
? Bears are 9-2 since their 21-day COVID pause in February.
? Baylor never trailed, led 29-11 right off the bat, made 8-15 on the arc.
? Bears are diverse; they force ton of turnovers, are best in country shooting on the arc.

11) Houston 67, Oregon State 61:
? Each region has teams seeds from #1-16: Houston beat seeds #15-10-11-12
? Cougars have won 11 games in a row.
? Houston shot only 32.3% from floor, but had 19 offensive rebounds.

10) Gonzaga 85, USC 66:
? Gonzaga is 30-0, with ONE WIN by less than 10 points.
? Zags never trailed in this game, led 49-30 at halftime.
? USC has #7 eFG% defense in country; Zags shot 57.8% inside arc.

9) Tip of the cap to Oral Roberts sophomore Max Abmas, who led ORU to a Summit League title, then two wins in the NCAA Tournament. Kid led the country in scoring, at 24.2 ppg.

In Oral Roberts? six postseason games, the Summit/NCAAs, Abmas NEVER came out of the game, played the whole 245:00 (one game went OT). In those six games, Abmas:
? shot 32-57 inside arc
? shot 13-45 on the arc
? shot 40-46 on foul line
? also had 34 assists
? 23.8 ppg, 5-1 record on the biggest stage. Good for him.

Next question is, unfortunately, how many phone calls has the kid gotten about transferring to a higher-profile program? Come on, kids who are way worse than Abmas have bolted low or mid-majors to be role players for the $$$ teams. Loyalty is becoming obsolete.

We?ll see what happens.

8) Speaking of which, Kentucky poached grad transfer Kellen Grady away from Davidson; Grady 2,000 points+ in his Davidson career and is a career 36.6% 3-point shooter.

Three years ago, Grady scored 16 points against Kentucky in an NCAA tourney game.

7) NFL is upgrading its schedule to 17 games next season; AFC teams will all get the extra home game next year, then NFC teams get the extra home game in even-numbered years.

The extra game will pit division vs division; for 2021:
? NFC West vs AFC North
? NFC East vs AFC East
? NFC North vs AFC West
? NFC South vs AFC South

6) Here is how the length of NFL schedules have worked over the years:
1947-60? 12 games
1961-77? 14 games; from 1966-77, 14 games in 15 weeks
1978-89? 16 games/season
1990-2020? 16 games in 17 weeks.

5) Final Four is set:
? two #1-seeds, a #2-seed and a #11-seed
? 7th year in a row, a team seeded #5 or lower wins a region.
? Third time in five years a double-digit seed goes to the Final Four.

4) This year was first time since 2001 that the Pac-12 had three teams in Elite 8.

3) Pac-12 has done so well in the NCAA tournament that the Washington Huskies have moved up 43 spots in the kenpom.com rankings, since they played their last game.

2) I can?t help it, every time I see Dick Vitale?s GEICO commercial, I laugh/smile; the guy dumps a cooler of water over his head? he is 81 years old. The commercial has been on TV a lot, but it never stops being funny. Hope I live as long as Coach Vitale, and would love to have his energy.

1) Was watching Daily Wager on ESPN2; good program, but they?re talking about betting NFL futures already and it is freakin? March 30. Too early.

? Haven?t had the draft yet.
? Trading may not be over yet.
? The freakin? schedule hasn?t been released yet.
? How can you wager on things when so much is still unknown?

 

[Cnotes53]

Thursday?s 6-pack
Odds for the Texas Open this week:
11-1? Jordan Spieth
14-1? Tony Finau
15-1? Scott Scheffler
19-1? Abraham Ancer, Hideki Matsuyama
21-1? Corey Connors
30-1? Ryan Palmer

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 550,903
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?It?s a beautiful day for a ballgame. Let?s play two today!?
Ernie Banks

Thursday?s quiz
In the history of baseball, what Hall of Famer threw the only no-hitter on Opening Day?

Wednesday?s quiz
2015 was last time three #1-seeds made the Final Four; Wisconsin, Kentucky, Duke.

Tuesday?s quiz
Last time Kelvin Sampson made it to the Final Four, he was coaching Oklahoma.

***********************

Thursday?s Den: Random thoughts on Opening Day

Before we start, happy birthday to my grandmother; today was her birthday. Very nice lady. Not sure April 1 is a great day for a birthday.

13) Will be fun to see fans in the stands; hopefully by the end of this season, stands will be full again, but for now, hearing real people cheer will be enough. Cardboard cutouts are cool, but they don?t make any noise.

For the record, the best cardboard cutout last year was the one in Kansas City of Bernie Lomax, the main character from the Weekend at Bernie?s movies.

12) Houston Astros made the expanded playoffs LY, despite a 29-31 record; how will they bounce back this year? They won the 2017 World Series, lost the ?19 Series in seven games; this year they?ll be without Verlander (hurt), Springer (free agent to Toronto).

Last year, Jose Altuve hit .219 in the regular season, then hit 18-48 (.375) in playoffs, so we?ll see what this year brings.

11) Baseball has done a very smart thing, letting players watch video of their at-bats on iPads during the game. Players couldn?t do that last year- from what you hear on TV, it hampered some hitters, who are creatures of habit. Baseball wants more offense, right?

10) Los Angeles Dodgers are loaded; they won World Series LY for first time since 1988, and appear to be headed that way again this year, especially after adding pitching ace Trevor Bauer as a free agent.

Their TV guys have been fairly cocky this spring; on how many teams would David Price or Tony Gonsolin not be in the starting rotation?

9) Seattle and the Angels are two teams that will apparently use 6-man pitching rotations this season, somehow new to MLB. Teams in Japan do this; starters generally pitch once a week.

Teams are guarding against ramping up a pitcher?s innings too much from one year to the next; for instance, Seattle?s Marco Gonzales threw 69.1 IP LY; he threw 203 the year before. Doubtful they want him ramping back up to 203 until next season.

8) Steve Cohen is the new owner of the Mets; supposedly, Bobby Axelrod on Showtime?s Billions was modeled after Cohen, a wildly successful hedge fund trader. In other words, he is really, really rich.

Cohen?s Mets offered newly-acquired SS Francisco Lindor $320M for 10 years; Lindor?s people are asking for 12 years, $385M. We?ll see how that works out.

LATE UPDATE: Here?s how it worked out: Lindor signed a 10-year deal for $341M Wednesday night.

7) Umpire ?ngel Hern?ndez lost his lawsuit against MLB alleging racial discrimination; hired as a big league umpire in 1993, the Cuban-born Hernandez alleged he was discriminated against because he had not been assigned to the World Series since 2005 and had been passed over for crew chief.

From the judge who decided the case:
?The explicit reason MLB offers ? that according to (Joe) Torre, Hern?ndez ?has not demonstrated the leadership ability and situation-management skills in critical high-pressure roles on a consistent basis? ? is presented in clear and specific terms.?

In other words, Hernandez should be glad he has a lucrative job that he doesn?t do very well.

6) Colorado Rockies traded star 3B Nolan Arenado to St Louis, and with SS Trevor Story headed for free agency, he could be the next to leave Denver, which can?t make fans in Denver happy.

Are the Rockies headed for a total rebuild? Colorado won 87-91 games in 2017/?18, but now they?re looking like a doormat.

5) Can Giancarlo Stanton/Aaron Judge stay healthy this season?
? Last two years, Stanton played a total of 41 regular season games.
? Last three years, Judge played 112-102-28 games.
? Stanton went 8-26 with six homers in seven playoff games LY; they need him for six months, not seven games.

4) Angels have lot of hitting, lot of star power; Trout, Pujols, Rendon, Ohtani, but pitching is important in baseball and the Angels don?t have much of that.

In 12 games as a major league pitcher, Ohtani has given up 26 runs in 53.1 IP; there is very little evidence that he?ll be a good major league pitcher.

3) Lot of hype around the Padres/White Sox; there is no doubt that 76-year Tony LaRussa?s return to the dugout will be fascinating to follow in Chicago.

LaRussa hasn?t managed since 2011; he?s won three World Series as a skipper, but the world is a different place than it was 10 years ago. He did a dugout interview during a spring training game a few days ago and it??.um??.didn?t go well.

Random LaRussa trivia; he pinch-hit for the A?s in their first-ever home game in Oakland, way back in 1968.

2) Baseball needs the universal DH, for a few reasons:
? They want more scoring; pitchers can?t hit
? They want more balls in play; DH?s put balls in play
? Pitchers get hurt hitting/running the bases. Not good.

1) I?ll be looking at how the new experimental rules work once the minor leagues get rolling in May; I like the anti-shifting rules, the pitch-clock thing isn?t necessary. The 3-batter minimum for relievers is a great rule.

I can?t stand the extra inning rules or 7-inning doubleheaders. Media guys like shorter extra innings, since it makes their job easier, but to me it cheapens the game.

As for the automated strike zone, no thank you!!! Just let umpires do their jobs, and hire better umpires than Angel Hernandez.

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday?s 6-pack
Six of the better ?17th game? NFL matchups this season:
? Packers @ Chiefs
? Cowboys @ Patriots
? Seahawks @ Steelers
? Buccaneers @ Colts
? Rams @ Ravens
? Saints @ Titans

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 553,980
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?I?m really tired of seeing them complain about the lack of pay, because they?re doing themselves a disservice by just complaining. They?re not laying out steps that they can take to change that.?
Draymond Green, complaining about WNBA players complaining

Saturday?s quiz
Which current major leaguer has a dad who hit two grand slams in one inning in a major league game?

Friday?s quiz
Of active players, Mike Trout (38) has the most career home runs against the Oakland A?s.

Thursday?s quiz
In the history of baseball, Bob Feller threw the only no-hitter on Opening Day, in 1940.

*************************

Saturday?s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind??..
Its been a busy few days, even beyond baseball starting:

13) North Carolina basketball coach Roy Williams retired, with 903 career wins, 485 for the Tar Heels, 418 at Kansas. He won?t be easily replaced; where does North Carolina turn from here?

My guess is former Tar Heel player Wes Miller, who is coach at NC-Greensboro; last five years, he?s gone 125-43 with the Spartans of the Southern Conference.

Back to Roy Williams for a minute; he seems like a genuinely nice person in addition to being a great coach. I remember reading a article where he read a book about golf? I think Rick Reilly wrote the book, but Williams really liked it, so he bought 20 copies of it and gave them to his friends. There aren?t enough nice person in today?s world: Roy Williams will be missed.

12) Kansas Jayhawks gave Bill Self a lifetime contract this week, despite Kansas not having an AD right now. I guess the school?s chancellor stepped in and did the deal.

Pat Forde of Sports Illustrated wrote this about what the contract says about Kansas: ?We like to win, we don?t care how, we don?t care what NCAA sanctions may come, we don?t care about anything but continuing to win.?

Kansas is headed towards some type of probation because of recruiting violations, but Self?s new contract says that he cannot be fired for cause due to NCAA sanctions.

11) As I starting writing this piece, Oklahoma tabbed Porter Moser as its next basketball coach, replacing the retired Lon Kruger. Moser went 178-141 in 10 years at Loyola, going 99-36 the last four years, including a run to the Final Four in 2018.

One of the interesting things about college hoop is how teams take advantage of circumstances to become relevant. Creighton left the MVC in 2013, Wichita State in 2017; they had dominated the Valley before moving on to greener pa$ture$. Loyola?s 56-16 run in MVC games the last four years coincide with Wichita State moving elsewhere.

10) Then there is Texas Tech, which got kicked in the teeth this week when Chris Beard left the Red Raiders to become the new coach at rival Texas, his alma mater. Bears was a student assistant to Tom Penders with the Longhorns in the early 90?s.

Beard went 112-55 in five years at Tech, after a 30-5 season at Little Rock. Texas has won one NCAA Tournament game in the last decade (1-6). Beard will be expected to win more than that.

9) Chris Ogden quit his job as HEAD COACH at Texas-Arlington, to become one of Beard?s ASSISTANTS at Texas. Ogden was 44-47 in three years at UTA, after they canned Scott Cross, who went 72-33 in his last three years with the Mavericks. Cross is now the coach at Troy- he knocked Ogden?s Arlington team out of the Sun Belt tournament last month.

8) Washington Wizards? Russell Westbrook a triple-double earlier this week, the first one ever where the guy scored 35+ points and had 20+ assists in the same game. He had 35 points, 21 assists, 14 rebounds; he must?ve had the ball a lot, that?s for sure.

Most importantly, Washington beat the Pacers 132-124.

7) Utah Jazz had a scary night this week, when their flight to Memphis struck a flock of birds during takeoff, damaging the left engine of the plane. There was a loud sound like an explosion, flames coming out of the engine and visible damage. Then the plane started to tilt and slowly lose altitude.

Players were actually texting their families, saying their goodbyes; luckily, the flight turned around and made an emergency landing back in Salt Lake City. The rest of the team got on a rescheduled flight to Memphis, but star Donovan Mitchell, who apparently hates flying in the first place, stayed home and skipped that game, which the Jazz won anyway.

6) ESPN signed 81-year old Dick Vitale to a new, 2-year contract to continue working for them; they need to tell him to stop pouring that cooler of water over his head that does in the GEICO commercial? a guy can catch pneumonia.

Not sure if everyone nows this, but Dick Vitale was a really good coach before he worked on TV; he was an assistant coach at Rutgers who recruited a lot of the players who formed the nucleus of their Final Four squad in 1976.

From there, he went 78-30 as head coach at Detroit, finishing ranked #12 in the country in his last season there. He went 34-60 in a brief stint coaching the NBA?s Detroit Pistons.

The man has amazing energy, even now; he?s helped raise over $100M to fight cancer. At times he is tough to listen to, but damn, he?s had a hell of a career.

5) DePaul hired Oregon assistant Tony Stubblefield as its new basketball coach; they haven?t made the NCAA Tournament since 2004. Since 2008, the Blue Demons are 43-206 in Big East conference games, which is, as we like to say, no bueno.

Stubblefield just turned 51; he?s never been a head coach, though he was an interim coach at New Mexico State in 2005, when Lou Henson got sick. He worked as an assistant under Mick Cronin at Cincinnati.

4) The clusterbleep of the year may be at East Tennessee State, where coach Jason Shay was told to take a hike this week- they say he ?resigned? but guys don?t quit after their first year as a head coach, not a guy who waited until he was 47 to become a head coach.

East Tennessee?s players took a knee during the national anthem before a few games this year, which ticked off boosters/state politicians, who publicly said so. Shay backed the players; if you want to be a successful coach, you back your players, especially when they?re right.

Shay went 13-12 in his one year as a head coach; he had assisted Steve Forbes for the five years before that, when ETSU went 130-43, going 71-19 in SoCon games.

East Tennessee?s decision makers have some questions to answer:
? Who do they hire from here?
? Who would want this job, if you fired Shay for supporting his players?
? Do the ETSU decision makers want to win?
? If you get a reputation as a racist organization, how do you recruit basketball players?

3) NFL?s Los Angeles Chargers have some internal issues involving the Spanos family, which owns the team. Chargers have to start paying a $650M relocation fee to the NFL pretty soon; they can?t sell the team just yet? the NFL will penalize them even more money if they move the team too quickly after bolting up the freeway to LA? its called a ?flip tax?.

In a November 2019 letter included with a court filing, Dean Spanos vowed to his three siblings that he would retain an investment bank at the end of the 2024 season in an effort to find a new owner- by 2024, the ?flip tax? wouldn?t be relevant anymore.

But Spanos? sister says the family?s finances are such that the team needs to be sold before that; the family has owned the Chargers since 1984. If you go broke while you own an NFL franchise, you?re a candidate for the Moron Hall of Fame.

There is a rumor that when the team is sold, they could move back to San Diego, which happens to be the 8th-biggest city in America.

2) In 1979, the Kansas City Royals drafted both John Elway and Dan Marino, which would be great, if the Royals were an NFL team. But they?re a baseball team; Elway played a year for Oneonta in the NY-Penn League, after New York drafted him in the 2nd round of the 1981 draft.

1) Amazing Fact of the Day: Tampa Bay won its season opener 1-0 at Miami Thursday; it is the first time since 1946 that a road team won 1-0 on Opening Day!!!!

Back then, Bob Feller blanked the White Sox on three hits at Comiskey Park; former major league manager Bob Lemon played CF for Cleveland that day.

Additional thing that happened Friday: this weekend?s Mets-Nationals series was cancelled, due to four Washington players testing positive for COVID.

 

[Udog]

801HOUSTON -802 BAYLOR
BAYLOR is 10-0 ATS (10 Units) in road games versus very good teams - outscoring their opponents by 8+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.

803UCLA -804 GONZAGA
GONZAGA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) in road games in non-conference games in the current season.

803UCLA -804 GONZAGA
UCLA is 8-1 ATS (6.9 Units) after 4 straight games forcing opponent to commit 14 or less turnovers in the current season.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Saturday, April 3

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, April 3

Houston (2) vs Baylor (1)
Houston (28-3)
? ranked #3 by KenPom
? Tempo: #328
? Experience: #141
? Continuity: #106
? Houston has the best eFG% defense in country.
? You?re reading armadillosports.com
? Opponents are shooting 29.2% on arc (#11)
? Cougars won their last 11 games, six of them by 24+ points.
? So far in this tournament, Houston has played seeds #15-10-11-12.
? Cougars allowed 55.8 ppg in first three NCAA games.
? Sampson?s Oklahoma team lost 73-64 in the national semifinals in his only Final Four appearance, in 2002.

Baylor (26-2)
? ranked #2 by KenPom
? Tempo: #186
? Experience: #85
? Continuity: #31
? Baylor is 9-2 since its 21-day COVID pause.
? Bears are shooting 41.1% on the arc (#1)
? Baylor forces turnovers 24.7% of time (#3)
? Baylor gave up 57.8 ppg in its first three tourney wins.
? Bears are grabbing 36.6% of their missed shots (#7)
? This is Baylor?s first Final Four since 1950.

? Since 1987, #1-seeds are SU vs #2-seeds in national semifinal games; favorites went 5-5 ATS in those games, last of which was in 2010.

UCLA (11) vs Gonzaga (1)
UCLA (22-9)
? ranked #15 by KenPom
? Tempo: #338
? Experience: #279
? Continuity: #33
? Two of UCLA?s five tournament wins have been in overtime.
? Bruins have played six overtime games (4-2) this season.
? UCLA is shooting 36.9% on the arc (#44)
? Bruins are 9-7 vs teams ranked in top 50.
? Since 2009, UCLA is 13-7 in NCAAs.
? This is Cronin?s 12th NCAA Tournament, his first Final Four.
? Pac-12 teams are 13-3 in this tournament; one of losses was Oregon vs USC.

Gonzaga (30-0)
? ranked #1 by KenPom
? Tempo: #6
? Experience: #248
? Continuity: #179
? Gonzaga has one win this season by less than 10 points.
? You?re reading armadillosports.com
? Gonzaga?s first four tournament wins were by 43-16-18-19 points.
? Zags are shooting 63.7% inside arc (#1)
? Gonzaga gets 57.4% of its points on 2-point shots (#29)
? Zags beat South Carolina 77-73 in national semis four years ago.
? Gonzaga won its last nine games vs Pac-12 teams; their last loss vs a Pac-12 opponent was to UCLA five years ago.

? Since 1987, double-digit seeds are 0-4 ATS in national semifinals.
? Since 2003, #1-seeds are 7-10 ATS in this round, when not playing another #1-seed.




NCAAB

Saturday, April 3

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Houston @ Baylor
Houston
No trends to report
Baylor
No trends to report

UCLA @ Gonzaga
UCLA
UCLA is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Gonzaga
Gonzaga
Gonzaga is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing UCLA


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

Monday?s 6-pack
Active leaders in most sacrifice bunts, career:
108? Clayton Kershaw
100? Elvis Andrus
85? Johnny Cueto
67? Julio Teheran
64? Brett Gardner
60? Adam Wainwright

Americans who have died from COVID-19: 554,522
PLEASE wear a mask (over your nose/mouth) when you go out.

Quote of the Day
?Experience is something you don?t get until just after you needed it.??
Steven Wright

Monday?s quiz
Who was manager of the Cincinnati Reds, last time they won a playoff game?

Sunday?s quiz
2017 was the last time two #1-seeds faced off for the national championship.

Saturday?s quiz
Fernando Tatis Sr hit two grand slams in one inning in a major league game in the late 90?s, against the Dodgers. Oddly, he hit both of them off the same pitcher.

*****************************************************

Monday?s Den: Random thoughts on a spring day??.

13) First thing today is a survey question; you know how the guy who wins the Masters picks the menu for the champions? dinner the next year? He can choose anything he likes.

If you won the Masters, what food would you serve at the champions? dinner?

E-mail me at ffib13@gmail.com or text me, if you know my cell number. We?ll post the results later on.

12) Tony LaRussa manages the White Sox now; he is 76 years old; there he was Sunday night, barking at 28-year old umpire Edwin Moscoso, who was working the plate. LaRussa probably has lot of clothes that are older than Moscoso.

Chicago has a 3rd-string catcher/DH Yermin Mercedes, who got hits in his first eight AB?s this season, making him the first player since 1933 to do that. He is apparently a bad defensive catcher, but he can also hit. With Eloy Jimenez hurt, White Sox need another hitter.

11) White Sox also have OF Billy Hamilton, who runs very fast but can?t hit; the guy has a career on-base %age of .296, a career OPS of .621- this is over nine years.

Every time I see Hamilton bat, I hear my dad?s voice, what he always said about light hitters who ran very fast: ?You can?t steal first base!!!?

10) My A?s are off to a terrible start; they?re the first team in last 100 years to lose their first four games of the season to the same team, all by 4+ runs. Houston is a good team, but Brantley got hurt and missed Sunday?s game. A?s host the Dodgers next? yikes.

9) Red Sox got swept at home by Baltimore, first time since 1948 that they lost their first three games of a season that were all at Fenway Park. Orioles led Sunday?s game 10-0 in third inning; the few fans that were there were not happy.

8) Colorado Rockies have a pitcher named Tyler Kinley who apparently is a descendent of the former President William McKinley.

On September 6, 1901, President McKinley was assassinated in Buffalo- he died eight days after he was shot. Fearing that anarchists might target the rest of the family, the Secret Service suggested that the family change their name a little, and that?s what happened.

7) Speaking of pitchers in Colorado, if you?re a high school/college pitcher and the Rockies draft you, you have to get queasy, yes? Who succeeds pitching in such high altitude?

6) Extra innings in the major leagues start with a runner on second base; there are a couple of baseball guys on TV who advocate intentionally walking the first hitter, saying it is easier to get out of a jam with a force play in effect, instead of just a guy on second.

Don?t think any big league managers have tried that one yet; it conceivably could happen in the bottom half of the inning, if the score was tied. No one is going to put the winning run on base.

5) Back to Colorado for a second; Saturday night, a Rockies runner steals second with two out, and a 1-2 count on Corey Seager. Rockies walk Seager intentionally to set up a force and bring Chris Taylor up, facing a righty pitcher. Can?t remember ever seeing an intentional walk when they count was 1-2.

Taylor crossed up the strategy by banging a double off the leftfield wall.

4) White Sox pitcher Lucas Giolito was miked in the dugout for a half inning of a game this weekend; he seemed at ease with a mike, which makes sense, since his grandfather was an actor named Warren Frost, who played George Costanza?s father-in-law on Seinfeld.

Mr Frost had 36 acting credits, ranging from Death Valley Days to Matlock to Seinfeld; in 10-12 days, when Giolito?s playing days are done, he?ll make a good broadcaster.

3) Maryland Terrapins have already poached transfers from Georgetown/Rhode Island this spring, as the new way to restock rosters isn?t so much recruiting high school kids as it is pillaging players from other schools. Georgetown has lost three starters the last two years.

2) Last year, Mac MacClung bolted from Georgetown to Texas Tech, to play for coach Chris Beard, a very good coach. Imagine MacClung?s surprise last week when Beard bolted himself, from Lubbock to the Texas Longhorns. Transfer market goes both ways.

1) QB Chase Daniel recently signed on as a backup with the LA Chargers; the guy is one of my heroes. He?s started five games in 11 years (five games!!!) but he?s banked $37.8M, plus the most popular guy on the team is usually the backup QB.

261 career passes, $37.1M, plus he?ll be all set for a career as a coach or broadcaster when he retires. Thats a career you can get behind.

Don?t forget to answer our survey question:

If you won the Masters, what food would you serve at the champions? dinner?

 

[Udog]

811BAYLOR -812 GONZAGA
BAYLOR is 12-1 ATS (10.9 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.




NCAAB
Dunkel

Monday, April 5

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, April 5

Gonzaga (1) vs Baylor (1)
Gonzaga (31-0)
? ranked #1 by KenPom
? Tempo: #7
? Experience: #248
? Continuity: #179
? Gonzaga has two wins this season by less than 10 points.
? Gonzaga played three guys 40:00+ in Saturday?s OT win.
? Zags are shooting 63.9% inside arc (#1)
? Gonzaga gets 57.7% of its points on 2-point shots (#26)
? Zags (+1) lost 71-65 to North Carolina in national title game, four years ago.
? Baylor played 15 games this season against top 50 teams; Gonzaga played 11.

Baylor (27-2)
? ranked #2 by KenPom
? Tempo: #201
? Experience: #85
? Continuity: #32
? Baylor is 10-2 since its 21-day COVID pause.
? Bears are shooting 41.2% on the arc (#1)
? Baylor forces turnovers 24.6% of time (#3)
? All five of Baylor?s NCAA wins were by 9+ points.
? Bears are grabbing 36.9% of their missed shots (#6)
? This is Baylor?s first Final Four since 1950- their game Saturday was stress-free.

? Since 1987, when two #1-seeds made the championship games, favorites were 4-3 ATS in those games.