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[Cnotes53]

Thursday’s 6-pack:
Most TD passes thrown for the Buffalo Bills:
237— Jim Kelly
192— Josh Allen
181— Joe Ferguson
80— Ryan Fitzpatrick
77— Jack Kemp
55— Drew Bledsoe

Quote of the Day
“I mean, you really want to get me going today. Yeah, I think to be honest with you, I think that’s complete and total bullshit if you want my honest opinion. These guys are tough (bleep)ers, man, they go after it every day……I can’t even wrap my mind around how that would even be a conversation. I mean, just because we don’t win games doesn’t mean we’re soft.”
Titans coach Brian Callahan

Thursday’s quiz
Which two starting QB’s in the NFL have fathers who played major league baseball?

Wednesday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.

Tuesday’s quiz
In the history of the NBA’s Oklahoma City Thunder, Russell Westbrook has scored the most points.

********************************************

Thursday’s Den: Nobody asked me, but…….​

— James Madison 27, Western Kentucky 17
Dukes get their first-ever I-A bowl win.
Hilltoppers led 14-7 at halftime.
JMU ran ball for 212 yards, outgained WKU 394-318

— UNLV 24, California 13
Rebels get their first bowl win since 2000.
UNLV won despite completing only 6-19 passes.
Cal’s QB bolted; they used two backups in this game.

— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)

AAC 1-0 SU/0-1 ATS

ACC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

Big X 0-1 SU/1-0 ATS

C-USA 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

MAC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

MWest 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS

Sun Belt 2-0 SU/2-0 ATS

Favorites: 2-2 ATS
Totals: under 3-1

— UConn 94, Xavier 89 OT
Xavier shot 13-24 on arc; they led by 5 with 5:16 left.
UConn shot 55.6% inside the arc.

— Oklahoma 87, Michigan 86
11-0 Sooners were down 11 with 9:55 left to play.
Oklahoma was 12-25 on arc, Wolverines 4-28

— Memphis 64, Virginia 62
Virginia led by 11 early in second half.
PJ Haggerty played all 40:00, scored 27 points for 9-2 Memphis

— New Mexico 78, VCU 71
Donovan Dent scored 40 points for the Lobos.
VCU was only 13-24 on the foul line.

— Atlanta Falcons added kicker Riley Patterson to replace Younghoe Koo, who is on IR and is done for the regular season.

— As we speak, the Chicago White Sox win total for 2025 in 49.5, the lowest in recent memory. Last year, the A’s were supposed to suck; their win total was 57.5. White Sox were 41-121, an incredibly terrible season. The 2024 A’s wound up 69-93, by the way.

— Famous birthdays, December 19:
Tim Reid, 80
Kevin McHale, 67
Bill Wegman, 62
Jennifer Beals, 61
Arvydas Sabonis, 60
Joe Slusarski, 58
Tom Gugliotta, 55
Alyssa Milano, 52
Warren Sapp, 52
Jake Plummer, 50

— When the Carolina Panthers were favored over the Cowboys Sunday, it was the first time in 34 games that the Panthers were favored to win. It didn’t go well.

— Former NFL QB Michael Vick is the new football coach at Norfolk State, which went 3-8/4-8 the last two years at the I-AA level.
Vick is 44 years old; he last played in the NFL in 2015 for Pittsburgh. He has no formal coaching experience, but he played QB in the NFL for 13 years and was a coaching intern for the Chiefs five years ago. He’ll need to hire experienced assistant coaches.

— Quarterback TJ Finley should write a book someday; he recently transferred to Tulane, which will be his fifth college team. He’’ll be 23 in March.
2020— started five games for LSU (2-3)
2021-22— started six games for Auburn (2-4)
2023— started the whole season at Texas State (8-5)
2024— started three games for Western Kentucky (2-1)
2025— Tulane.

— Wake Forest hired former Washington State coach Jake Dickert as its new football coach; he replaces Dave Clawson, who is a really good coach, but Wake Forest doesn’t have the resources that its competitors have, so Clawson resigned.
Dickert was 23-20 in three years at Wazzu, 8-4 this season. Washington State wasn’t in a league this year; they’ll eventually be in the re-configured Pac-12 with a lot of Mountain West teams.

— Vanderbilt QB Diego Pavia was granted eligibility for the 2025 season, very good news for the Commodores; he’s been arguing that junior college seasons should not count against NCAA eligibility, which could open up a whole new can of worms.

— Modern college football: Alabama poached the long snapper from the Cal Bears.

— In his excellent career, NBA star James Harden has scored 40+ points in 103 games.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Thursday, December 19

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Bowl Season

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Bowl Season

Saturday’s games
College football playoff
SMU @ Penn State (-8.5)
SMU (11-2)
SMU won 9 of last 10 games; they lost ACC title game, 34-31 to Clemson
SMU’s other loss: 18-15 at home to BYU.
SMU gained 434+ TY in eight of last nine games.
Mustangs have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Mustangs have 120 returning starts on the offensive line.


Soph QB Jennings started twice LY.
SMU is 7-3 ATS in its last ten games.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 4-6 ATS as an underdog (2-0 TY).
Mustangs are 3-7 ATS in last 10 games as a road underdog.
SMU lost its last four bowl games; their last bowl win was in 2012.
Under Lashlee, Mustangs are 4-9 ATS in non-conference games.
Over is 7-3 in their last ten games.
SMU held last three opponents to 74.7 rushing yards/game.


Penn State (11-2)
Penn State won four of last five games, scoring 38.2 ppg.
PSU’s losses:20-13 at home to Ohio State, 45-37 vs Oregon.
Nittany Lions are 6-1 SU/3-4 ATS at home this season.
Nittany Lions have 6 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Penn State has 45 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Allar started 13 games last year.


Under Franklin, Penn State is 35-25-3 ATS as a home favorite.
Nittany Lions are 13-6 ATS in last 19 non-conference games .
Nittany Lions are 2-3 SU/ATS in last five bowl games .
Penn State ran ball for 219+ yards in four of last five games.
Over is 4-0 in their last four games.
Penn State is 7-3 ATS in last ten games coming off a loss.


Cold weather could be a factor here; not lot of freezing weather in Dallas.


College football playoff
Clemson @ Texas (-12)
Clemson (10-3)
Clemson is 4-1 in last five games; they won ACC title December 7.
Tigers allowed 431+ TY in three of last four games.
Clemson was held to 3-21-14 points in their losses.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 106 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Klubnik has 14 career starts.


Clemson is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games.
In his career, Swinney is 8-6 ATS as a road underdog.
Last 11 years, Tigers are 1-2 ATS as a road underdog.
Clemson is +16 in turnovers in wins, even in losses.
Under is 6-3-1 in last ten Clemson games.
Tigers won their last three bowl games.


Texas (11-2)
Ten of eleven Texas wins are by 10+ points.
Texas was held to 15-19 points in their two losses.
Texas was held to 29-31 rushing yards in the two losses.
Longhorns have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Longhorns have 123 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Ewers has completed 66.2% of passes (25 TD’s, 9 INTs)


Under Sarkisian, Texas is 15-10 ATS as a home favorite.
Texas lost SEC title game 22-19 to Georgia.
Under Sarkisian, Texas is 6-7 ATS in games coming off a loss.
Texas held 12 of 13 opponents under 300 TY.
Under is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.
Texas lost its last two bowls, both as a favorite vs Washington.


College football playoff
Tennessee @ Ohi0 State (-7.5)
Tennessee (10-2)
Vols’ two losses: 19-14 @ Arkansas/31-17 @ Georgia
Tennessee is 2-2 SU/ATS in true road games this year.
Tennessee scored 23+ points in all their wins.
Tennessee has 6 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Vols have 112 returning starts on the offensive line;
Frosh QB Iamaleava had one start LY, was MVP of Citrus Bowl.


Tennessee is 1-7 ATS last eight games as a road underdog.
In his career, Heupel is 1-5 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Heupel, Tennessee is 3-9 ATS as an underdog.
Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
Vols gained 452+ yards in four of their last five games.
Vols won four of last five bowls (loss was 48-45 in OT)


Ohio State (10-2)
Ohio State won five of their last six games.
Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.
Buckeyes’ two losses were by total of four points.
Ohio State has 7 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Buckeyes have 103 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Howard stated 33 games at Kansas State.


Under Day, OSU is 25-16 ATS as a home favorite.
Buckeyes are 9-5 ATS in last 14 home games.
Buckeyes held last six opponents to 276 or fewer yards.
Buckeyes are 5-9-1 ATS in last 15 non-conference games.
OSU is 2-2 this year in games decided by less than 23 points.
Ohio State lost four of its last six bowl games.


Cold weather could definitely be a factor in this night game.




NCAAF

Bowl Season

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Southern Methodist vs Penn State
Southern Methodist is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Methodist is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Penn State is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
Penn State is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games

Clemson vs Texas
Clemson is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Clemson is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Texas's last 9 games
Texas is 18-3 SU in its last 21 games

Tennessee vs Ohio State
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Ohio State is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home
Ohio State is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Cnotes53]

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 19​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
GASO at SHSU	07:00 PM	SHSU +4.0 U 48.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAFB BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK AND BOWL GAMES !

12/19/2024.....................0 -2 - 0.......................00.00%..................- 11.00
12/18/2024.....................2 -2 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 1.00
12/17/2024.....................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%...................- 11.00
12/14/2024.....................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/07/2024.....................4 - 6 - 0......................40.00%...................- 13.00
12/06/2024.....................4 - 2 - 0......................66.66%...................+ 9.00

TOTALS.........................10 -16 - 0......................38.46%...................- 38.00

*************************************************************************************

AUG- SEPT TOTALS............119 - 95 - 3..........................55.60%............................+ 75.20
OCTOBER TOTALS................61 - 64 - 3..........................48.80%............................- 42.00
NOVEMBER TOTALS............146- 147 - 0.........................49.82%............................- 78.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Friday’s 6-pack:
College basketball teams with the best eFG% defense in country:
40.0%— Tennessee
41.0%— Houston
41.2%— Duke
41.4%— Illinois
42.2%— George Mason
42.2%— Cincinnati

Quote of the Day
“Great football game. Let’s talk about Cam Dicker and the free kick. It’s my favorite rule in football. I have been trying to get one in every game. When Cameron Dicker made it, it got the momentum back. This was our chance. This was our moment [to try it].”
Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh, talking about the 57-yard FG on a free kick

Friday’s quiz
What city is the Liberty Bowl football game played in every year?

Thursday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff are the two starting QB’s in the NFL who have fathers that played major league baseball.

Wednesday’s quiz
Washington Redskins drafted Kirk Cousins in the 4th round of the 2012 NFL Draft.

*******************************************************

Friday’s Den: Random stuff with the weekend here…….​

— Chargers 34, Broncos 27
Broncos’ first three drives: 28 plays, 212 yards, 21 points.
Denver led 21-13 at halftime.
Broncos last seven drives: 37 plays, 124 yards, 3 points.
Broncos are 1-5 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Denver’s team total: over 10-4-1
QB Herbert threw for 284 yards and two TD’s.
Chargers are 6-0 scoring 24+ points, 3-6 scoring 23 or fewer points.
Over is 5-0 in their last five home games.
Chargers are 5-1 ATS this season as home favorites.
Bolts are 8-4 ATS in last 12 AFC West home games.
Chargers got a 57-yard field goal at the end of the first half on a free kick after a fair catch by the punt returner; the last time that happened in the NFL was 1976.

— Sam Houston 31, Georgia Southern 26
Sam Houston scored on a pick-6 2:58 into the game.
Georgia Southern ran for 181 yards, outgained Bearkats 393-267.
Problem is, Sam Houston was +4 in turnovers (5-1)
Bearkats win their first-ever I-A bowl game.
Sam Houston still has 10 guys who were on 2021 team that won the 2021 national title at the I-AA level.

— When the Detroit Lions play in Chicago Sunday, it’ll be their second outdoor game this year, on freakin’ December 22. Very unusual.
Lions won their first outdoor game 24-14 at Green Bay in Week 9, but they were outgained 411-261. Detroit scored 34-42 points in their last two games, but those were both at home.

— Cardinals’ 3B Nolan Arenado vetoed a trade to Houston; at this point, the best St Louis can probably get for Arenado is most likely a mid-level prospect and for the other team to take on some of his salary (he will make $59M the next two years).
Does this mean Alex Bregman is leaving the Astros? Boston is rumored to be interested in him, as well as the Tigers.

— Sacramento A’s signed 33-year old IF Gio Urshela Thursday; he hit .250 last year, with nine homers, 52 RBI in a season split between Detroit/Atlanta.

— 31-year old Max Kepler signed a one-year, $10M deal with the Phillies; he’s played for the Twins the last 10 years, and was hampered by injuries LY, playing in only 105 games. Kepler is expected to play left field for Philadelphia.

— Washington Nationals signed P Mike Soroka for one year, $9M; Soroka was 17-8, 3.32 in 43 starts for Atlanta from 2018-23, but was 0-10, 4.74 in 25 games (nine starts) for a dreadful White Sox team last year. He is expected to be a starter again for Washington.

— Famous birthdays, December 20th:
Dick Wolf, 78 (executive producer, Law and Order)
Cecil Cooper, 75
Jenny Agutter, 72
Trent Tucker, 65
Tom Newberry, 62
Rich Gannon, 59
David DeJesus, 45
James Shields, 43
Jonah Hill, 41
Calvin Ridley, 30
Bryce Perkins, 28
De’Aaron Fox, 27
Friday would’ve been John Hillerman’s 92nd birthday.

— Cal-Irvine 92, Belmont 84
Anteaters were down 13 with 12:20 left to play.
Irvine scored 40 points in the last 10:00 of the game.
Anteaters were 24-26 on foul line, Belmont 5-8; game was at Belmont.
It is December 20; Irvine already has four true road wins. Impressive.

— How much does Patrick Mahomes’ status effect the pointspread?
When it was thought he was sitting Saturday’s game out, Houston was favored by 2.5 points.
Now that Mahomes is going to play, Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points.

— Duke QB Maalik Murphy bolted to Oregon State, which probably means the Beavers gave him a lot more $$$$ than Duke was. On the surface, bolting from the ACC to the Mountain West isn’t a brilliant move. Duke is 9-3 this year; Murphy threw 26 TD’s, 12 INTs before he bolted.
Washington State QB John Mateer is bolting to Oklahoma, where he will reunite with his old offensive coordinator, Ben Arbuckle, and quarterbacks coach John Kuceyesk from Wazzu.
Coogs are 8-4 this year, losing their last three games; Mateer threw 29 TD’s, 7 INT’s. It is safe to assume that Oklahoma gave him a boatload of $$$, too.

— NBA franchises that are worth the most $$$$:
Golden State $9.14B
NY Knicks $8.3B
LA Lakers $8.07B
Brooklyn $5.7B
LA Clippers $5.68B

— Steph Curry is getting paid $55,761,216 this season: he is expected to make another $90M or so off the floor, in endorsements. Same thing for Lebron James, who the Lakers are paying $48,728,845 this year (plus another $2M or so to his son).
Basketball is big business, but if the TV ratings keep tanking, will be interesting to see where the salary cap winds up the next few years.

— JJ Redick gave up the TV booth this year to coach Lebron and the Lakers, who are 15-12 as we speak, the #7-seed in the West. Redick had never coached before; they fired last year’s coach Darvin Ham even after the Lakers won the in-season tournament, which is probably an indictment of that event.
Would seem that coaching a big-market team with two big stars wouldn’t be an entry-level position, but this year, it is.

— Random stat: Los Angeles Chargers have lost their last 11 games that were decided by 3 or fewer points; the longest losing streak ever in that category is 13 (Buffalo, from 2001-06).

— Looks like Georgia Bulldogs QB Carson Beck is exploring surgery options on his injured throwing elbow; he isn’t expected to play in Georgia’s playoff games. Sophomore Gunner Stockton is expected to take his place- he was 12-16 for 71 yards in the SEC title game against Texas, which the Dawgs won 22-19 in overtime.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Friday, December 20

 

[Cnotes53]

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 20​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
OHIO at JVST	12:00 PM	JVST +6.5 U 57.5	+500 +500
TULN at FLA	03:30 PM	TULN +10.0 O 49.5	+500 +500
IU at ND	08:00 PM	ND -6.5 O 51.5	+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

NCAAFB BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK AND BOWL GAMES !

12/20/2024.....................3 - 3 - 0......................50.00%..................- 1.50
12/19/2024.....................0 -2 - 0.......................00.00%..................- 11.00
12/18/2024.....................2 -2 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 1.00
12/17/2024.....................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%...................- 11.00
12/14/2024.....................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/07/2024.....................4 - 6 - 0......................40.00%...................- 13.00
12/06/2024.....................4 - 2 - 0......................66.66%...................+ 9.00

TOTALS.........................13 -19 - 0......................39.15%...................- 39.50

*************************************************************************************

AUG- SEPT TOTALS............119 - 95 - 3..........................55.60%............................+ 75.20
OCTOBER TOTALS................61 - 64 - 3..........................48.80%............................- 42.00
NOVEMBER TOTALS............146- 147 - 0.........................49.82%............................- 78.50

 

[Cnotes53]

Saturday’s 6-pack:
Some college basketball teams with a bad eFG% defense:
#361- VMI
#359- Stony Brook
#355- Seattle
#352- Oral Roberts
#350- Canisius
#348- Kansas City

Quote of the Day
“Joe does a great job at buying gifts that are extremely meaningful. The fact that he bought me a sword, it’s the most ancient form of respect.”
Bengals left tackle Orlando Brown, talking about the Christmas gifts QB Joe Burrow gave to his offensive linemen this week

Saturday’s quiz
Where did Patrick Mahomes play his college football?

Friday’s quiz
The Liberty Bowl football game played in Memphis.

Thursday’s quiz
Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff are the two starting QB’s in the NFL who have fathers that played major league baseball.

************************************

Saturday’s Den: Clearing out a cluttered mind…….​

— Notre Dame 27, Indiana 17
Indiana scored two TD’s in last 2:00; final score is misleading.
Notre Dame scored on a 98-yard TD run on their second series.
Notre Dame was 7-13 on third down, Indiana 4-12
Notre Dame plays Georgia in the Elite 8 next week.

— Florida 33, Tulane 8
Tulane’s QB bolted to Duke; his backup didn’t play well.
Florida’s lead was only 6-0 at halftime.
Gators ran for 224 yards; they outgained Tulane, 529-194

— Ohio 30, Jacksonville State 27
Ohio U led this game 27-7 at halftime.
Ohio QB Navarro ran for 3 TDs, threw a 4th TD, all in first half.
Both head coaches in this game have bolted to bigger $$$ jobs.

— Indiana had 13 players who played for James Madison last year; despite that, JMU went 9-4 this year and won their bowl game. Lot of talent out there.

— Conference bowl records (SU/ATS)
AAC 1-1 SU/1-1 ATS

ACC 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

Big 18 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

Big X 0-1 SU/0-1 ATS

C-USA 1-2 SU/1-2 ATS

MAC 1-1 SU/1-0-1 ATS

M West 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS

SEC 1-0 SU/1-0 ATS

Sun Belt 2-1 SU/1-1-1 ATS

Favorites: 4-3-1 ATS
Totals: under 5-3

— St John’s 72, Providence 70
Friars led 42-29 at halftime.
Red Storm survived going 11-26 on the foul line.
Providence lost six of its last eight games.

— Cincinnati 66, Dayton 59
Bearcats never trailed, led 16-4 midway thru first half.
Dayton shot 39.2% from floor.
9-1 Cincinnati has #6 eFG% defense in country.

— Famous birthdays, December 21st:
Dave Kingman, 76
Samuel L Jackson, 76
Ray Romano, 67
Andy Van Slyke, 64
Kiefer Sutherland, 58
LaTroy Hawkins, 52
Mike Alstott, 51
Chris Davis, 37
Kendall Graveman, 34
Mike Clevinger, 34

— Houston Astros signed 1B Christian Walker to a 3-year, $60M contract; 33-year old Walker hit 26 homers for Arizona last year, with an .803 OPS.

— A record nine MLB teams were over the luxury tax threshold for 2024, which resulted in $311M in penalties, with the Dodgers ($103,016,896), Mets ($97,115,609) and Bronx ($62,512,111) paying the biggest penalties.
Some questions for this week’s NFL games:

— Steelers lead the Ravens by a game in AFC North; they visit Baltimore Sunday. Pittsburgh has won eight of its last nine games against the Ravens, including an 18-16 win in Week 11..

— Lions @ Bears- December 22 and this is Detroit’s 2nd game outdoors all season; should be a bit nippy in Chicago for this one. Lions won their first outdoor game 24-14 in Green Bay.

— Giants @ Atlanta- Falcons are favored by 8.5 points; they’re playing a QB making his first-ever NFL start. Atlanta lost four of its last five games; Giants have lost nine in a row.

— Jaguars @ Raiders
Jacksonville lost six of its last seven games.
Las Vegas lost its last 10 games; their last win was September 29.
Please don’t bet on this game, but if you do, play the total.

— Patriots @ Bills- Weird scheduling— it is Week 16 and these division rivals haven’t met yet this season- they play again in two weeks.

— Vikings @ Seahawks- Both teams are scrambling for playoff position; Vikings have a short week after their win against the Bears Monday night. Minnesota is 7-1 this year in games decided by 7 or fewer points.

 

[Udog]

NCAAF
Weather Report

Saturday, December 21

 

[Cnotes53]

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 21​

Game	Time(ET)	Pick	Units
SDST at NDSU	12:00 PM	SDST -3.5 U 50.5	+500 +500
SMU at PSU	12:00 PM	SMU +8.5 U 52.0	+500 +500
SDAK at MTST	03:30 PM	MTST -8.5 U 56.5	+500 +500
CLEM at TEX	04:00 PM	TEX -13.5 U 50.0	+500 +500
TENN at OSU	08:00 PM	TENN +7.0 U 46.0	+500 +500