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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
Thursday’s games
Sports Bowl (@ Detroit)
Pitt (-7) vs Toledo
Pittsburgh (7-5)
Pitt lost its last five games, after a 7-0 start.
Four of their seven wins were by 10+ points.
Panthers scored 28+ points in six of their seven wins.
Panthers have 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Panthers have 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Holstein has 2,228 passing yards, with 17 TD’s, 7 INTs, but he’s been banned up recently.
Pitt is 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 32-29-3 ATS as a favorite
Last three games, Panthers were held to 62.7 rushing yards/game.
Last five games, Pitt was minus-8 in turnovers.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Pitt is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (underdogs 4-1 ATS)
Toledo (7-5)
Toledo lost its last two games, scoring 7-14 points.
Rockets are 6-1 giving up less than 24 points.
Three of their last four losses were by 15+ points.
Toledo has 4 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Rockets had no returning starts on OL (added 3 transfers).
Junior QB Gleason started two games LY.
Toledo is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
Rockets are 5-1 ATS last six games as an underdog.
Rockets are 7-9 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
Toledo is +8 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
Toledo is 1-4 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
Since 2015, MAC teams are 1-5 SU in this bowl.
Last nine years, favorites are 5-4 ATS in this bowl
Rate Bowl (@ Phoenix, AZ)
Rutgers vs Kansas State (-7)
Rutgers (7-5)
Rutgers won three of last four games, scoring 32.3 ppg.
Scarlet Knights are 7-1 when they allow less than 35 points.
Rutgers gave up 430+ TY in five of last seven games.
Scarlet Knights have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
Rutgers has 123 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Kaliakmanis started 12 games at Minnesota.
Scarlet Knights are 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
Last four years, Rutgers is 14-4-1 ATS as an underdog.
In his college career, Schiano is 57-46-4 ATS as an underdog.
Last two games, Rutgers ran ball for 203-208 yards.
Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Rutgers is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in its last five bowls.
Kansas State (8-4)
K-State lost three of last four games, after a 7-1 start.
K-State scored 29+ points in its wins, 9-19-14-21 in losses.
Wildcats are +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Frosh QB Johnson has thrown for 2,517 yards (22 TDs, 9 INTs)
Wildcats are 4-6 ATS as a favorite this year.
Under Klieman, K-State is 24-17 ATS as a favorite.
Wildcats are +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
K-State ran for 200+ yards in six of its eight wins.
Under is 4-1 in K-State’s last five games.
K-State is 3-2 in last five bowls (favorites 5-0 ATS)
Favorites covered this bowl the last four years.
K-State won this bowl 35-17 in 2017.
68 Ventures Bowl (@ Mobole, AL)
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green (-8)
Arkansas State (7-5)
Red Wolves won four of their last six games.
ASU allowed 40+ points in four of its five losses.
ASU allowed 250+ RY in three of its last four games.
Red Wolves have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Red Wolves have 123 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Raynor was Sun Belt freshman of year last year.
Arkansas State is 6-0 this year in games decided by 7 or less points.
Arkansas State is 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year.
Under Jones, Redhawks are 19-18 ATS as an underdog.
Redhawks are 4-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Red Wolves lost three of their last four bowl games.
Bowling Green (7-5)
Falcons won last five of last six games, after a 2-4 start.
Bowling Green is 1-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Falcons are 4-0 scoring 28+ points, 3-5 scoring 27 or less.
Falcons have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Falcons have 123 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bazelak has 40 career starts.
Bowling Green is 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
Falcons are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games as a favorite.
Falcons are held five of last seven foes under 300 yards.
Last six games, Bowling Green is +8 in turnovers.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Falcons lost their last three bowls, giving up 58-24-30 points.
Favorites covered this bowl the last four years.
Last nine years, Sun Belt teams are 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS in this bowl.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Bowl Season
Thursday’s games
Sports Bowl (@ Detroit)
Pitt (-7) vs Toledo
Pittsburgh (7-5)
Pitt lost its last five games, after a 7-0 start.
Four of their seven wins were by 10+ points.
Panthers scored 28+ points in six of their seven wins.
Panthers have 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Panthers have 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Holstein has 2,228 passing yards, with 17 TD’s, 7 INTs, but he’s been banned up recently.
Pitt is 3-2 ATS as a favorite this year.
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 32-29-3 ATS as a favorite
Last three games, Panthers were held to 62.7 rushing yards/game.
Last five games, Pitt was minus-8 in turnovers.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Pitt is 2-3 SU in last five bowls (underdogs 4-1 ATS)
Toledo (7-5)
Toledo lost its last two games, scoring 7-14 points.
Rockets are 6-1 giving up less than 24 points.
Three of their last four losses were by 15+ points.
Toledo has 4 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Rockets had no returning starts on OL (added 3 transfers).
Junior QB Gleason started two games LY.
Toledo is 2-0 ATS as an underdog this year.
Rockets are 5-1 ATS last six games as an underdog.
Rockets are 7-9 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
Toledo is +8 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
Under is 3-0 in their last three games.
Toledo is 1-4 SU/ATS in its last five bowls.
Since 2015, MAC teams are 1-5 SU in this bowl.
Last nine years, favorites are 5-4 ATS in this bowl
Rate Bowl (@ Phoenix, AZ)
Rutgers vs Kansas State (-7)
Rutgers (7-5)
Rutgers won three of last four games, scoring 32.3 ppg.
Scarlet Knights are 7-1 when they allow less than 35 points.
Rutgers gave up 430+ TY in five of last seven games.
Scarlet Knights have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense
Rutgers has 123 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Kaliakmanis started 12 games at Minnesota.
Scarlet Knights are 4-1-1 ATS as an underdog this year.
Last four years, Rutgers is 14-4-1 ATS as an underdog.
In his college career, Schiano is 57-46-4 ATS as an underdog.
Last two games, Rutgers ran ball for 203-208 yards.
Over is 6-1 in their last seven games.
Rutgers is 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in its last five bowls.
Kansas State (8-4)
K-State lost three of last four games, after a 7-1 start.
K-State scored 29+ points in its wins, 9-19-14-21 in losses.
Wildcats are +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Frosh QB Johnson has thrown for 2,517 yards (22 TDs, 9 INTs)
Wildcats are 4-6 ATS as a favorite this year.
Under Klieman, K-State is 24-17 ATS as a favorite.
Wildcats are +7 in turnovers in wins, minus-8 in losses.
K-State ran for 200+ yards in six of its eight wins.
Under is 4-1 in K-State’s last five games.
K-State is 3-2 in last five bowls (favorites 5-0 ATS)
Favorites covered this bowl the last four years.
K-State won this bowl 35-17 in 2017.
68 Ventures Bowl (@ Mobole, AL)
Arkansas State vs Bowling Green (-8)
Arkansas State (7-5)
Red Wolves won four of their last six games.
ASU allowed 40+ points in four of its five losses.
ASU allowed 250+ RY in three of its last four games.
Red Wolves have 10 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Red Wolves have 123 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Raynor was Sun Belt freshman of year last year.
Arkansas State is 6-0 this year in games decided by 7 or less points.
Arkansas State is 3-4 ATS as an underdog this year.
Under Jones, Redhawks are 19-18 ATS as an underdog.
Redhawks are 4-3 ATS TY in games with single digit spread.
Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
Red Wolves lost three of their last four bowl games.
Bowling Green (7-5)
Falcons won last five of last six games, after a 2-4 start.
Bowling Green is 1-3 in games decided by 7 or fewer points.
Falcons are 4-0 scoring 28+ points, 3-5 scoring 27 or less.
Falcons have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Falcons have 123 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bazelak has 40 career starts.
Bowling Green is 2-6 ATS as a favorite this season.
Falcons are 6-11 ATS in last 17 games as a favorite.
Falcons are held five of last seven foes under 300 yards.
Last six games, Bowling Green is +8 in turnovers.
Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
Falcons lost their last three bowls, giving up 58-24-30 points.
Favorites covered this bowl the last four years.
Last nine years, Sun Belt teams are 9-0 SU/8-1 ATS in this bowl.
NCAAFB BEST BETS THRU CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK AND BOWL GAMES !
12/24/2024....................1 - 1 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 0.50
12/21.2024.....................3 -3 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 1.50
12/20/2024.....................3 - 3 - 0......................50.00%..................- 1.50
12/19/2024.....................0 -2 - 0.......................00.00%..................- 11.00
12/18/2024.....................2 -2 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 1.00
12/17/2024.....................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%...................- 11.00
12/14/2024.....................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/07/2024.....................4 - 6 - 0......................40.00%...................- 13.00
12/06/2024.....................4 - 2 - 0......................66.66%...................+ 9.00
TOTALS.........................17 -23 - 0......................42.50%...................-40.50
*************************************************************************************
AUG- SEPT TOTALS............119 - 95 - 3..........................55.60%............................+ 75.20
OCTOBER TOTALS................61 - 64 - 3..........................48.80%............................- 42.00
NOVEMBER TOTALS............146- 147 - 0.........................49.82%............................- 78.50
12/24/2024....................1 - 1 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 0.50
12/21.2024.....................3 -3 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 1.50
12/20/2024.....................3 - 3 - 0......................50.00%..................- 1.50
12/19/2024.....................0 -2 - 0.......................00.00%..................- 11.00
12/18/2024.....................2 -2 - 0.......................50.00%..................- 1.00
12/17/2024.....................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%...................- 11.00
12/14/2024.....................0 - 2 - 0......................00.00%....................- 11.00
12/07/2024.....................4 - 6 - 0......................40.00%...................- 13.00
12/06/2024.....................4 - 2 - 0......................66.66%...................+ 9.00
TOTALS.........................17 -23 - 0......................42.50%...................-40.50
*************************************************************************************
AUG- SEPT TOTALS............119 - 95 - 3..........................55.60%............................+ 75.20
OCTOBER TOTALS................61 - 64 - 3..........................48.80%............................- 42.00
NOVEMBER TOTALS............146- 147 - 0.........................49.82%............................- 78.50
Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Some teams getting highest %age of points on 3’s:
48.3% of points— North Dakota State
45.8%— DePaul
43.5%— IU Indy
43.2%— Tennessee Tech
42.2%— Akron
42.0%— Samford
Quote of the Day
“Christmas Day is Christmas Day, and it doesn’t wait around for what day it’s on. We want to be there on Christmas Day. I would think the future is whatever day it’s on, we’re going to be there on Christmas.”
Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones
Wednesday’s quiz
Who was coach of the Golden State Warriors, before Steve Kerr?
Tuesday’s quiz
When Rickey Henderson got his 3,000th career hit, he was playing for the San Diego Padres.
Monday’s quiz
In 2008, Vikings’ coach Kevin O’Connell threw six passes in two games for New England.
********************************************
Hawks (15-15):
— 1-3 SU in their last four games.
— 1-4 ATS as a road favorite, 6-4 as a road dog.
— Over 6-2 last eight home games
Celtics (22-7):
— 13-4 last 17 games SU.
— 4-11 ATS last fifteen games.
— under 5-0 last five games.
Nets (11-18):
— lost eight of their last ten games SU.
— 2-8 ATS last ten games.
— under 6-3 last nine games
Hornets (7-22):
— lost 13 of last 14 games SU.
— 2-7 ATS last nine games.
— under 5-2 last seven games.
Bulls (13-17)
— 3-4 SU in last seven games.
— 4-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— under 5-1 last six home games
— 1-5 ATS if they played the night before.
Cavaliers (26-4):
— 9-1 SU last ten games.
— 14-4 ATS as a home favorite, 4-0 as a road underdog.
— over 5-1 last six games.
— 4-1 ATS if they played the night before.
Mavericks (19-10):
— 14-3 last 17 games SU.
— 6-1 ATS last seven home games.
— under 8-4 last 12 home games
— 4-0 ATS if they played the night before.
Nuggets (16-11):
— 5-1 SU last six games
— 1-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 6-2 last eight games.
— 3-1 ATS if they played the night before.
Pistons (13-17):
— 4-2 last six games SU.
— 7-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— 0-4 ATS as home favorite
— over 7-1 last eight road games
Warriors (15-13):
— 3-10 last thirteen games SU.
— 9-5 ATS as an underdog
— under 8-0 last eight road games
Rockets (20-9):
— 5-1 last six games SU
— 8-3 ATS as a home favorite, 5-3 as an underdog.
— over 5-3 last eight road games
Pacers (15-15):
— won/covered their last five games.
— 4-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
— under 7-1-1 last nine games.
Clippers (17-13):
— 3-1 last four games SU
— 10-6 ATS at home.
— 7-2 ATS as a favorite
— under 6-0 last six road games.
Lakers (16-13):
— 4-2 SU last six games
— 1-5 ATS last six games as a home favorite
— 5-2 ATS last seven games overall.
— under 8-2 last ten road games.
Grizzlies (20-10):
— 12-3 last fifteen games SU.
— 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— 4-0 ATS if they played the night before.
— over 6-2 last eight road games
Heat (14-13):
— 1-3 SU last four games.
— 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home favorite
— 4-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— under 3-0 last three home games.
Famous birthdays, December 25th:
Howard Twilley, 81
Gary Sandy, 79
Larry Csonka, 78
Sissy Spacek, 75
Manny Trillo, 74
Jillie Mack, 67
Erik Hiljus, 52
Eric Gordon, 36
Garrett Cooper, 34
Rickey Henderson would’ve turned 66 today
Rod Serling would’ve turned 100.
Bucks (16-12):
— 5-1 last six games SU.
— 6-8-1 ATS at home.
— under 3-1 last four games.
— 1-4-1 ATS if they played the night before
Timberwolves (14-14)
— 0-3 SU last three games, giving up 121 ppg.
— 4-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— 1-3 ATS if they played the night before
— under 8-2 last ten games.
Pelicans (5-25):
— 3-25 last 28 games SU
— 3-12 ATS on the road (8-6 at home).
— over 6-3 last nine games.
Knicks (19-10):
— won/covered their last four games.
— 6-2 ATS last eight as a home favorite.
— over 7-3 last ten home games.
Thunder (23-5):
— 12-1 last thirteen games SU
— 9-5 ATS on road.
— under 4-1 last five games
Magic (19-12):
— 4-5 last nine games SU.
— 10-1 ATS as home favorite, 3-6 as road underdog.
— under 3-1 last four games.
76ers (10-17):
— 5-2 SU last seven games
— 4-10 ATS at home
— under 6-2 last eight road games
Suns (14-14):
— 6-12 SU last 18 games.
— 4-11 ATS at home.
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before
— over 7-2 last nine road games
Trailblazers (9-20):
— 3-12 SU last fifteen games.
— 8-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 4-0 last four home games
Kings (13-17):
— 0-4 SU/ATS last four games
— 5-13 ATS at home
— under 5-1 last six road games
Spurs (15-14):
— 4-2 SU in last six games
— 3-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— under 3-1 last four games
Raptors (7-23):
— lost last eight games SU (4-3-1 ATS)
— 11-3-1 ATS as home dog, 8-6 as road dog.
— under 8-3 last eleven road games
Jazz (7-21):
— 3-9 SU last 12 games.
— 9-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 7-1 last eight games.
Wizards (4-23):
— 2-21 SU/7-14-2 ATS last 23 games
— 5-9 ATS as home dog, 5-7-2 as road dog
— under 5-1 last six home games.
Some teams getting highest %age of points on 3’s:
48.3% of points— North Dakota State
45.8%— DePaul
43.5%— IU Indy
43.2%— Tennessee Tech
42.2%— Akron
42.0%— Samford
Quote of the Day
“Christmas Day is Christmas Day, and it doesn’t wait around for what day it’s on. We want to be there on Christmas Day. I would think the future is whatever day it’s on, we’re going to be there on Christmas.”
Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones
Wednesday’s quiz
Who was coach of the Golden State Warriors, before Steve Kerr?
Tuesday’s quiz
When Rickey Henderson got his 3,000th career hit, he was playing for the San Diego Padres.
Monday’s quiz
In 2008, Vikings’ coach Kevin O’Connell threw six passes in two games for New England.
********************************************
Wednesday’s Den: NBA trends for Christmas Day…….
NBA trends (thru Tuesday, December 24)Hawks (15-15):
— 1-3 SU in their last four games.
— 1-4 ATS as a road favorite, 6-4 as a road dog.
— Over 6-2 last eight home games
Celtics (22-7):
— 13-4 last 17 games SU.
— 4-11 ATS last fifteen games.
— under 5-0 last five games.
Nets (11-18):
— lost eight of their last ten games SU.
— 2-8 ATS last ten games.
— under 6-3 last nine games
Hornets (7-22):
— lost 13 of last 14 games SU.
— 2-7 ATS last nine games.
— under 5-2 last seven games.
Bulls (13-17)
— 3-4 SU in last seven games.
— 4-7 ATS as a home underdog.
— under 5-1 last six home games
— 1-5 ATS if they played the night before.
Cavaliers (26-4):
— 9-1 SU last ten games.
— 14-4 ATS as a home favorite, 4-0 as a road underdog.
— over 5-1 last six games.
— 4-1 ATS if they played the night before.
Mavericks (19-10):
— 14-3 last 17 games SU.
— 6-1 ATS last seven home games.
— under 8-4 last 12 home games
— 4-0 ATS if they played the night before.
Nuggets (16-11):
— 5-1 SU last six games
— 1-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— 5-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 6-2 last eight games.
— 3-1 ATS if they played the night before.
Pistons (13-17):
— 4-2 last six games SU.
— 7-4 ATS as road underdogs.
— 0-4 ATS as home favorite
— over 7-1 last eight road games
Warriors (15-13):
— 3-10 last thirteen games SU.
— 9-5 ATS as an underdog
— under 8-0 last eight road games
Rockets (20-9):
— 5-1 last six games SU
— 8-3 ATS as a home favorite, 5-3 as an underdog.
— over 5-3 last eight road games
Pacers (15-15):
— won/covered their last five games.
— 4-12-1 ATS as a favorite.
— under 7-1-1 last nine games.
Clippers (17-13):
— 3-1 last four games SU
— 10-6 ATS at home.
— 7-2 ATS as a favorite
— under 6-0 last six road games.
Lakers (16-13):
— 4-2 SU last six games
— 1-5 ATS last six games as a home favorite
— 5-2 ATS last seven games overall.
— under 8-2 last ten road games.
Grizzlies (20-10):
— 12-3 last fifteen games SU.
— 10-5 ATS as a home favorite.
— 4-0 ATS if they played the night before.
— over 6-2 last eight road games
Heat (14-13):
— 1-3 SU last four games.
— 6-2 ATS last eight games as a home favorite
— 4-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— under 3-0 last three home games.
Famous birthdays, December 25th:
Howard Twilley, 81
Gary Sandy, 79
Larry Csonka, 78
Sissy Spacek, 75
Manny Trillo, 74
Jillie Mack, 67
Erik Hiljus, 52
Eric Gordon, 36
Garrett Cooper, 34
Rickey Henderson would’ve turned 66 today
Rod Serling would’ve turned 100.
Bucks (16-12):
— 5-1 last six games SU.
— 6-8-1 ATS at home.
— under 3-1 last four games.
— 1-4-1 ATS if they played the night before
Timberwolves (14-14)
— 0-3 SU last three games, giving up 121 ppg.
— 4-10 ATS as a home favorite.
— 1-3 ATS if they played the night before
— under 8-2 last ten games.
Pelicans (5-25):
— 3-25 last 28 games SU
— 3-12 ATS on the road (8-6 at home).
— over 6-3 last nine games.
Knicks (19-10):
— won/covered their last four games.
— 6-2 ATS last eight as a home favorite.
— over 7-3 last ten home games.
Thunder (23-5):
— 12-1 last thirteen games SU
— 9-5 ATS on road.
— under 4-1 last five games
Magic (19-12):
— 4-5 last nine games SU.
— 10-1 ATS as home favorite, 3-6 as road underdog.
— under 3-1 last four games.
76ers (10-17):
— 5-2 SU last seven games
— 4-10 ATS at home
— under 6-2 last eight road games
Suns (14-14):
— 6-12 SU last 18 games.
— 4-11 ATS at home.
— 1-4 ATS if they played the night before
— over 7-2 last nine road games
Trailblazers (9-20):
— 3-12 SU last fifteen games.
— 8-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— over 4-0 last four home games
Kings (13-17):
— 0-4 SU/ATS last four games
— 5-13 ATS at home
— under 5-1 last six road games
Spurs (15-14):
— 4-2 SU in last six games
— 3-5 ATS as a road underdog.
— under 3-1 last four games
Raptors (7-23):
— lost last eight games SU (4-3-1 ATS)
— 11-3-1 ATS as home dog, 8-6 as road dog.
— under 8-3 last eleven road games
Jazz (7-21):
— 3-9 SU last 12 games.
— 9-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— over 7-1 last eight games.
Wizards (4-23):
— 2-21 SU/7-14-2 ATS last 23 games
— 5-9 ATS as home dog, 5-7-2 as road dog
— under 5-1 last six home games.
THURSDAY, DECEMBER 26
| Game | Time(ET) | Pick | Units |
|---|---|---|---|
| PITT at TOL | 02:00 PM | TOL +7.0 O 50.5 | +500 +500 |
| RUTG at KSU | 05:30 PM | KSU -7.0 U 50.5 | +500 +500 |
| ARST at BGSU | 09:00 PM | BGSU -7.5 O 53.0 | +500 +500 |
