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WEEK 3

Thursday, September 12

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Friday, September 13
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Saturday, September 14
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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Thursday’s game
Arizona State
(-1.5) @ Texas State
Arizona State (2-0)
Sun Devils ran for 241/346 yards in home wins over Wyoming/Miss State.
ASU has 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Sun Devils have 57 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Leavitt threw 23 passes for Michigan State LY; he is 24-42/327 passing this year, and has also run for 115 yards.


Since 2018, ASU is 2-8 ATS as a road favorite.
ASU outgained first two opponents by 252 yards/game.
Since 2017, Sun Devils are 6-16-1 ATS in non-league games.
Arizona State is 2-6-1 ATS in last nine non-league road games.


Texas State (2-0)
Bobcats (-2.5) threw for 309 yards in 49-10 win over UTSA last week.
Texas State has 9 starters back on offense, 9 on defense
Bobcats have 68 starts back on offensive line.
Senior QB McCloud started 13 games at James Madison LY; he is at his 4th in six years- he played in 20 games at South Florida, 3 at Arizona.
Big X teams are 3-5 ATS in non-conference road games.


Texas State is 8-4-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.
Texas State is 5-1 ATS in last six non-conference games.
Texas State was 8-5 LY, played in first-ever bowl (W45-21).
Last nine years, Bobcats are 10-29 ATS coming off a win.
Sun Belt teams non-conference underdogs are 6-3 ATS


These teams haven’t met.


Friday’s games
UNLV
@ Kansas (-7)
UNLV (2-0)
Rebels outgained Houston 308-259 in 27-7 (+3.5) road win
UNLV has 5 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Rebels have 79 starts returning on offensive line.
Senior QB Sluka started 37 games at I-AA Holy Cross.


Last year was UNLV’s first bowl game since 2013.
In his career, Odom is 7-7 ATS as a road dog, 4-0 at UNLV.
Last 3+ years, Rebels are 12-3 ATS as a road underdog.
Since 2018, UNLV is 17-5 ATS in non-league games.


Kansas (1-1)
Kansas (-5.5) was minus-3 in TO’s, lost 23-17 at Illinois LW.
Jayhawks have 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Kansas has 130 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Daniels has 20 career starts.


In his career, Leipold is 8-9 ATS as road favorite, 1-2 at Kansas.
Under Leipold, Kansas is 6-4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Leipold is 16-7-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Last 2+ years, Kansas is 7-2 ATS in non-league games.


Kansas (-11) beat UNLV 49-36 in a bowl game last year.
That was teams’ first meeting since 2003.
Mountain West teams are 7-2 ATS in last nine games vs Big X opponents.


Arizona @ Kansas State (-7)
Arizona (2-0)
Arizona (-28) beat New Mexico 61-39 in its first I-A game TY.
Arizona has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense
Wildcats have 86 starts back on offensive line.
Soph QB Fifita started nine games last year.


Last two years, Arizona was 6-2 ATS as a road underdog.
In his career, Brennan is 16-12 ATS as a road underdog.
Wildcats are 6-1 ATS in last seven non-league games.
Over is 5-2 in Arizona’s last seven non-league road games.


Kansas State (2-0)
K-State beat Tulane 34-27 LW, but gave up 342 PY.
Wildcats have 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Wildcats have 73 returning starts on OL, only 36 at I-A level.
Frosh QB Johnson threw for 334 yards in their first two games.


Last two years, K-State is 11-2 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Klieman, Wildcats are 20-12 ATS as a favorite.
Since 2018, K-State is 18-10 ATS in non-league games.
Wildcats are 22-16 ATS in last 38 games coming off a win.


Teams haven’t met in this century.
 

Cnotes53

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting NFL spreads for this week:
— Bills @ Miami (-2.5)
— Raiders @ Baltimore (-9.5)
— Chargers (-6.5) @ Carolina
— Saints @ Dallas (-6.5)
— Buccaneers @ Detroit (-7)
— Colts (-3) @ Green Bay

Quote of the Day
“I couldn’t coach bad players to play good.”
Nick Saban

Wednesday’s quiz
Who is the only major league pitcher to throw a no-hitter, and later become a US Senator after his playing days were done?

Tuesday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football for the Cal Bears.

Monday’s quiz
Before Sunday, Robert Griffin III was the last rookie QB to start a game for the Washington Redskins/Commanders; that happened in 2012.

*************************************

Wednesday’s Den: Mid-week musings…….

— How college football conferences are doing so far ATS:
AAC- 9-4 ATS, 6-2 as a road underdog
ACC- 7-8 ATS, 1-4 as a home favorite
Big X- 7-9 ATS, 0-3 as a road favorite
Big 18- 10-12 ATS, 8-9 s a home favorite (only 2 lined road games)
C-USA- 3-5 ATS, 2-4 as a road underdog.
MAC- 8-9 ATS, 7-6 as a road underdog.
Mountain West- 6-6 ATS, 6-4 as an underdog
SEC- 9-7 ATS, 4-5 as a home favorite
Sun Belt- 8-8 ATS, 1-4 as a home favorite

— This was the first Week 1 in 45 years that three NFL teams won, after trailing by 14+ points. Dolphins, Bears, Bills all trailed by 14+, but wound up winning.

— Since Week 9 of the 2022 season, Detroit Lions are 23-8 ATS.

— Two NFL players share the current record for most teams played for:
9- Josh McCown (2002-19)
9- Ryan Fitzpatrick (2005-21)……both guys were quarterbacks.
Nobody has played for eight teams; 25 guys have played for seven.

— NFL kickers were 21-23 last week on kicks of 50+ yards. Pretty, pretty good.

— 10 WRs had 100+ receiving yards in Week 1; Dolphins were only team that had two guys with 100+ receiving yards, Tyreek Hill/Jayden Waddle.

— Seven guys had 100+ rushing yards last week, including QB Lamar Jackson; Houston’s Joe Mixon leads the league with 159 rushing yards.

— College football teams playing the fastest tempo so far this year:
Oklahoma State
Old Dominion
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Texas Tech
Mississippi State
Toledo……..all 7 teams are averaging less than 21 seconds/snap.

Famous birthdays, September 11th:
Earl Holliman, 96
Tom Dreesen, 85
Rod Perry, 71
Kristy McNichol, 62
Gerald Wilkins, 61
Bern Brostek, 58
Harry Connick Jr, 57
Ed Reed, 46
Zay Flowers, 24

— NHL’s Edmonton Oilers are favored to win the Presidents’ Trophy (best regular season record) for the first time since 1987.

— This week, there are two college football games between two top 25 teams:
Friday: Arizona @ Kansas State
Saturday: Boston College @ Missouri

— Clemson DB Caleb Nix hurt his knee on the first play of the Tigers’ game vs Appalachian State last week, but he played the rest of the game.
Turns out he tore his ACL, and played the whole game with it.

— Remember in the movie Moneyball, where Billy Beane is sitting at a table with a bunch of A’s scouts, talking about prospects?
Chicago Cubs just fired four veteran scouts, Boston Red Sox fired three of them, as veteran scouts are becoming less prominent. Change is happening, not sure if it is change for the better, but it is happening.

— If the baseball playoffs started today (they don’t):
NL: Philadelphia, Milwaukee, Dodgers Wild Cards– Padres-Arizona-Mets
AL: Bronx, Cleveland, Houston Wild Cards– Orioles-Royals-Twins
 

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Wednesday’s 6-pack:
Interesting college football spreads for this week:
— West Virginia (-2) @ Pittsburgh
— Indiana (-3) @ UCLA
— Colorado (-7) @ Colorado State
— Central Florida (-2.5) @ TCU
— Maryland (-2.5) @ Virginia
— Rice @ Houston (-4)

Quote of the Day
“They’re definitely not sending cash. It’s funny. When they lose money, they want their money back. But when they win money on a parlay, no one’s ever sent me any of the money.”
Auburn QB Payton Thorne

Thursday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, what well-known actor plays the Bulls’ pitching coach?

Wednesday’s quiz
Jim Bunning is the only major league pitcher to throw a no-hitter, and later become a US Senator after his playing days were done.

Tuesday’s quiz
Aaron Rodgers played his college football for the Cal Bears.

***************************************************

Thursday’s Den: Doing some thinking out loud……..

— Auburn QB Payton Thorne said angry bettors sent him Venmo requests after they lost their bets on Auburn:
“They’re definitely not sending cash. It’s funny, when they lose money, they want the money back, but when they win money on the parley, no one’s ever saying they want to pay the money.”
Thorne threw 4 INT’s in Auburn’s upset loss to California last week; I’m thinking that these college teams have to have security teams around the players in their dorms, making sure some nitwit doesn’t try to make an appearance on Law & Order.

— Arizona State plays Texas State in football tonight; the QB for Texas State is Jordan McCloud, who has had an interesting college career:
2019- He threw 224 passes for South Florida (4-8)
2020- He threw 194 passes for South Florida (1-8)
2021- He threw 73 passes for Arizona (1-11)
2023- He threw 412 passes for James Madison (11-2)
2024- He’s thrown 57 passes for Texas State (2-0)
Six years, five seasons, four colleges. Someday he can write a hell of a book. He’ll be 25 in early November, older than any of the three rookie QBs starting in the NFL this month.

— Not only did Northern Illinois upset Notre Dame 16-14 last week, they banked a check for $1.4M on the way home, the guarantee $$$ they got for visiting South Bend.
Teams in the MAC/Sun Belt usually get their butts kicked in these guarantee games, but they bank big checks which help finance their mid-major programs. Every once in a while an upset happens. NIU actually outgained Notre Dame 388-286 in that game.

— Random trivia: When the New York Jets started playing in the AFL in 1960, they were the New York Titans, not the Jets- they became the Jets in 1963.
When the Tennessee Titans started playing in the AFL in 1960, they were the Houston Oilers; they moved to Tennessee in 1997. Oilers won the first two AFL titles, way back when.
This week, the old Titans (the Jets) meet the current Titans (the old Oilers) in Nashville.

Famous birthdays, September 12:
Mickey Lolich, 84
Joe Pantoliano, 73
Rachel Ward, 67
Deron Cherry, 65
Vernon Maxwell, 59
Ki-Jana Carter, 51
Yao Ming, 44
Andrew Luck, 35
Freddie Freeman, 35

— Should the Carolina Panthers sit QB Bryce Young? The 2nd-year QB is 2-15 as a starter; would it help him to sit back for a few weeks and watch veteran backup Andy Dalton play?
Carolina lost its last three games by a combined 82-10; it isn’t Young’s fault that the morons in the Carolina front office traded Christian McCaffrey to the 49ers and DJ Moore to the Bears, but getting pummeled every week doesn’t seem to be working very well. Maybe a change of pace would slow the game down for Young and help him improve
(subtle reminder that Patrick Mahomes’ first career start was the last game of his rookie year)

— In addition to betting totals on games, you can bet over/unders on team totals; in Week 1, over was 16-13-3 in team totals. I actually think team totals are a fun way to bet NFL games.

— San Diego Padres were 82-80 last year, they’re 82-65 this year.
Last year’s Padres were 2-12 in extra innings, 80-68 in nine-inning tilts.
This year’s Padres are 8-1 in extra innings, 74-64 in nine-inning tilts.

— Is it a bad thing (yes, it is) when your favorite NFL team signs three new offensive linemen two days after their first game of the season?
LA Rams signed C Dylan McMahon off the Eagles’ practice squad.
They also signed Ty Nsekhe and Geron Christian off the street. Nsekhe played for the Browns LY, has played the Rams before. Christian has played for four different NFL teams.

— Pittsburgh Steelers lost P Cameron Johnson (knee) for the year last week; he was also the holder for kicker Chris Boswell, who was 6-6 on field goals in the win at Atlanta.

Word of the Day: Potpourri- a mixture of things, especially a musical or literary medley.
This used to be a category on the old daytime Jeopardy! TV gameshow; you never knew what the question was going to pertain to. “Art, I’d like Potpourri for $60, please”

— New York Mets are only team in the major leagues that hasn’t had one at-bat taken by a rookie this season.
Mets 6, Blue Jays 2
Toronto P Francis had a no-hitter thru 8 IP (110 PT)
Francisco Lindor hit his 111th pitch out of the park to tie the game, 1-1. Mets then scored five more runs off the Toronto bullpen.
It is the second time in 18 days Francis had a no-hitter thru 8 IP; both times, the leadoff guy in the 9th inning hit a home run. The home run against the Angels came on his 117th pitch.
Francis has been great the last month or so; you’d think a non-contender like Toronto would want to protect him some, keep him healthy for next year, but no, the genius who manages the Blue Jays won’t take him out— not brilliant.

— Dodgers 10, Cubs 8
Dodgers hit four home runs in the first inning, then blew a 7-3 lead.
Shohei Ohtani homered, now has 47 taters and 48 stolen bases.

—Arizona 14, Rangers 4
Eugenio Suarez went 4-4, with two HR’s, scored four runs.
Ketel Marte went 3-4, with four RBI

— Red Sox 5, Orioles 3 (10)
Tyler O’Neill hit a walk-off, 3-run homer in the 10th inning.
Orioles are now 1.5 games out of first place in AL East.

— A’s 5, Astros 4
Backup C McCann hit the go-ahead HR in the sixth inning.
Houston’s lead in AL West is down to 3.5 games.

— Phillies 3, Rays 2
Zack Wheeler struck out nine hitters in 6 IP.
Philly’s magic number to clinch NL East is 9; this will be their first NL East title since 2011.

— Mariners 5, Padres 2
Bryan Woo had a perfect game thru six innings.
Luke Raley, JP Crawford both knocked in two runs.
 

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THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
NWST at USA07:30 PMNWST +36.5
U 62.5
+500 +500
ASU at TXST07:30 PMTXST -0.5
O 60.5
+500 +500
 

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NCAAFB BEST BETS AUGUST-SEPTEMBER!

09/12/2024............................0 - 4 - 0...............................00.00%.........................- 22.00
09/07/2024..........................21 - 17 - 0............................55.26%..........................+ 11.20
09/06/2024.............................0 - 4 - 0............................00.00%...........................- 22.00
09/02/2024.............................1 - 1 - 0............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/01/2024.............................1 - 1 - 0............................50.00%............................- 0.50
08/30/2024..........,................17 - 13 - 1.........................56.66%.............................+ 13.50
08/29/2024.............................13 - 4 - 2.........................76.47%.............................+ 43.00

TOTALS.................................53 - 44 - 3.........................54.63%.............................+ 25.70
 

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Friday’s 6-pack:
— Bronx 2, Boston 1 (10)- Juan Soto had a walk-off single.
— Brewers 3, Giants 0- Frankie Montas tossed 6 shutout IP.
— Rangers 5, Mariners 4- Texas scored three runs in top of the 8th.
— Rockies 4, Tigers 2- Detroit was -300 with Skubal pitching.
— Cardinals 6, Reds 1- Sonny Gray struck out nine in 6 IP>
— Rays 5, Guardians 2- Cleveland had one hit in the last seven innings.

Quote of the Day
“Nothing ends well, or else it wouldn’t end.”
Coughlin’s Law, from the movie Cocktail

Friday’s quiz
Who replaced Marv Levy as coach of the Buffalo Bills?

Thursday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, Robert Wuhl plays the Bulls’ pitching coach.

Wednesday’s quiz
Jim Bunning is the only major league pitcher to throw a no-hitter, and later become a US Senator after his playing days were done.

***********************************************

Friday’s Den: Looking ahead to a football weekend……..

Bills 31, Dolphins 10
Buffalo had three TD drives: 37-85-49 yards.
Bills are 10-3-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road underdog.
Buffalo is 14-3-1 ATS in last 18 games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Bills are 20-9-3 ATS in last 32 games on natural grass.
Awful night for Miami; bad loss, QB Tagovailoa left with a concussion.
Before he left, Tagovailoa threw a horrific pick-6 that made score 31-10.
Under McDaniel, Miami is 4-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or fewer points.
Buffalo won 11 of last 12 series games.

— Tagovailoa’s concussion looked fairly severe; Miami’s other two QB’s are Skylar Thompson, Tim Boyle, who have a combined seven NFL starts (1-6). Not good.
Dolphins haven’t won a playoff game since 2000; this year isn’t looking too good, either.

— Arizona State 31, Texas State 28
Texas State outgained ASU 400-347, but they turned ball over three times (minus-2)
Game was tied 21-21 at halftime.
Texas State QB McCloud threw for 268 yards and four TD’s in a losing cause.

Pac-12 is back in business, kind of; Oregon State, Washington State hung around, will now be joined by San Diego State, Boise State, Colorado State, Fresno State. More teams are on the way; there are murmurs that UNLV/Nevada have to be a package deal, but the Pac-12 might not be interested in adding the Wolf Pack.
Memphis, Rice, Tex-San Antonio and North Texas are rumored to be in the mix, further screwing up every kid’s grades in Geography. (do they still teach Geography?)
Cal/Stanford/SMU in the ATLANTIC Coast Conference
Memphis and two Texas schools in the PACIFIC-12.
Oy.

Famous birthdays, September 13:
Jacqueline Bisset, 80
Rick Wise, 79
Kathleen Lloyd, 76
Rick Dempsey, 75
Jim Cleamons, 75
Mike Pagel, 64
Brad Johnson, 56
AJ McCarron, 34
Troy Reeder, 30

One quick question for every NFL game this weekend:

— Chargers @ Carolina- Panthers lost their last three games by a combined score of 82-10; they were down 30-3 at halftime last week. Would they ever bench QB Bryce Young?

— Buccaneers @ Lions- Detroit won a playoff game LY for first time since 1991; is this the year they get to their first Super Bowl?
Lions won NFL titles in 1952, 1953, 1957, but that was before there were Super Bowls.

— Saints @ Cowboys- New Orleans scored five TD’s last week, averaged 8.0 yards/pass attempt; Cowboys held the Browns to 2.7 yards/pass attempt last week, can they shut down the Saints’ offense this week?

— Jets @ Titans- Tennessee lost last week without giving up an offensive TD; they had a punt blocked for a TD and their suspect of a QB threw a pick-6. Jets have a good defense; will they score more points than the Jets’ offense?

— Seahawks @ Patriots- All three of Seattle’s TD’s last week were on plays of 23+ yards; New England held Cincinnati to one TD. Will the Seahawks be just as explosive in their road opener?

— Giants @ Commanders- Minnesota’s defense outscored the Giants’ offense 7-6 last week; at $40M a year, how much rope does QB Daniel Jones get, before backup Drew Lock gets a look?

— 49ers @ Vikings- QB Sam Darnold played really well last week; what happens if Darnold has a great year and Minnesota makes a run to the playoffs? Would they keep rookie JJ McCarthy or look to pick up some draft capital and trade him?

— Colts @ Packers- Jordan Love’s injury is the big question here; Malik Willis, Sean Clifford are the backups. Green Bay is in a position very close to Miami’s right now unless Love can get back on the field fairly soon.

— Raiders @ Ravens- How much is Baltimore going to use RB Derrick Henry? 13 carries for 46 yards doesn’t seem like a lot. 41 passes for Lamar Jackson seems like a lot.

— Browns @ Jaguars- The whole Deshaun Watson debacle is a huge ??? for the entire league. You see Tua Tagovailoa get knocked silly (again) and you understand why teams don’t want to have guys with fully guaranteed contracts.

— Steelers @ Broncos- What went on between Sean Payton/Russell Wilson in Denver? Seems like they didn’t get along too well. Wilson won’t start for Pittsburgh this week, but he must have a pretty good handle on the Broncos’ offense, right?

— Bengals @ Chiefs- Carson Wentz has one of the best jobs in America; he is Patrick Mahomes’ backup. Wentz has already banked $128M in his career, has a Super Bowl ring. Now he gets to learn from the best. Will he ever get another shot at being an NFL starter?

— Rams @ Arizona- Sean McVay’s offensive line has a lot of injury concerns; can they keep Matthew Stafford in one piece? Pretty important question for this week; they get LT Alaric Jackson back next week.

— Bears @ Texans- Rookie QB Williams didn’t do too well in his NFL debut; how will he do in his first road start, against a playoff team from last year?

— Falcons @ Eagles- Atlanta used the 8th pick in the draft on QB Michael Penix; how long before they give him some playing time? Falcons gained 226 yards last week; they lost without giving up a TD (Steelers kicked six FG’s). How much patience do they have?
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 3

Saturday’s best 13 games
Alabama
(-16) @ Wisconsin
Alabama (2-0)
Alabama won its first two games, 63-0/42-16.
New coach DeBoer was 37-9 SU at Fresno State/Washington.
Alabama has 7 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Crimson Tide has 60 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Milroe has started 14 games.


Last three years, Alabama is 5-9 ATS as a road favorite.
Last 5+ years, Alabama is 15-9 ATS in non-league games.
LW, Alabama gave up 206 RY, was minus-3 in turnovers, still won 42-16.
Last 4+ years, Alabama is 27-20-1 ATS coming off a win.


Wisconsin (2-0)
Wisconsin beat Western Michigan 28-14, beat a I-AA team 27-13.
Last two years, Wisconsin was 7-6/7-6, their worst years since 2008.
Badgers have 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Badgers have 102 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Van Dyke started 25 games at Miami.


Since 2014, Badgers are 2-0 ATS as a home underdog.
Since 2017, Badgers are 2-4 ATS as an underdog anywhere.
In his career, Fickell is 15-8 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2014, Badgers are 24-16 ATS in non-conference games.


These teams haven’t met since a bowl game in 2015.
Alabama (-12.5) won that game, 35-17.


LSU (-7) @ South Carolina
LSU (1-1)
LSU (-4) lost 27-20 to USC, then beat a I-AA team, 44-21
In two years under Kelly, LSU is 21-8 SU/15-12-1 ATS
Tigers have 6 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Tigers have 111 returning starts on the offensive line.
Junior QB Nussmeier was MVP of LSU’s 35-31 bowl win LY.


Under Kelly, Tigers are 2-4 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Kelly is 31-28-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Kelly, LSU is 8-8-1 ATS in SEC games.
Since 2017, LSU is 36-22-2 ATS in SEC games.


South Carolina (2-0)
Gamecocks beat Old Dominion 23-19, Kentucky 31-6 so far.
Carolina has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Gamecocks have 118 returning starts on the offensive line.
Freshman QB Sellers threw four passes in three games LY.


Since 2018, Gamecocks are 7-12 ATS as a home underdog.
In his career, Beamer is 4-4 ATS as a home dog.
Last 4+ years, Carolina is 16-19 ATS in SEC games.
Under Beamer, Gamecocks are 10-10 ATS coming off a win.


Teams haven’t met since 2020.
LSU won last seven series games (5-2 ATS)
This is Bayou Bengals’ first visit to Columbia since 2008.
Last three meetings went over the total.


Memphis @ Florida State (-6.5)
Memphis (2-0)
Tigers beat Troy 38-17 LW; they beat a I-AA team 40-0.
Memphis has 10 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Tigers have 124 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Hanigan has 37 career starts.


Since 2016, Tigers are 3-9-1 ATS as a road underdog.
Under Silverfield, Tigers are 2-5 ATS as a road dog.
Under Silverfield, Memphis is 9-7-2 ATS in non-league games.
Under Silverfield, Memphis is 10-17-1 ATS coming off a win.


Florida State (0-2)
Florida State lost first two games, ACC games, to Georgia Tech/BC.
FSU was 23-4 SU last two years (19-27 from 2018-21)
FSU has 5 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Seminoles have 190 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Uiagalelei has 41 career starts, 28 of them at Clemson.


Seminoles gave up 453 rushing yards in first two games.
Under Norvell, FSU is 8-12 ATS as a home favorite.
In his career, Norvell is 22-23 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Norvell, FSU is 7-7-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Since 2020, Seminoles are 5-11 ATS coming off a loss.


These teams haven’t met since 1990.
ACC teams are 11-2 ATS in last 13 games against AAC foes.


Boston College @ Missouri (-16)
Boston College (2-0)
BC won 28-13 at Florida State, beat a I-AA stiff 56-0.
New coach O’Brien was 54-52 as NFL HC, was 15-9 in two years at Penn State.
Eagles have 9 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Eagles have 115 returning starts on offensive line.
Junior QB Castellanos started 12 games LY.


Last 4+ years, Boston College is 9-10 ATS as an underdog.
In his college career, O’Brien is 6-3 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2017, Eagles are 10-18 ATS in non-conference games.
Boston College is 3-7 ATS last 10 games as a double digit road dog.


Missouri (2-0)
Mizzou beat Buffalo/I-AA stiff by a combined 89-0.
Tigers ran for 255 yards vs MAC’s Buffalo last week.
Tigers have 9 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Tigers have 107 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Cook has started 26 games.


Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 4-10-1 ATS as a home favorite.
Under Drinkwitz, Mizzou is 5-9-1 ATS in non-league games.
Mizzou is 10-6-1 ATS in last 17 non-SEC home games.
Tigers start SEC play next week, when they host Vanderbilt.


BC (+1.5) beat Mizzou 41-34 (OT) at home in 2021, running for 275 yards
Since start of LY, ACC teams are 9-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.


Oregon (-16.5) @ Oregon State
Oregon (2-0)
Last 3+ years, Oregon is 34-9 SU, 23-17-2 ATS.
Oregon has 8 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Ducks have 144 returning starts on the offensive line.
Ducks poached senior QB Gabriel (49 starts at UCF/Oklahoma).


Under Lanning, Oregon is 16-6 ATS as a favorite.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 7-2 ATS as a road favorite.
LW, Boise State ran for 221 yards in Ducks’ 37-34 win.
Since 2015, Ducks are 18-26 ATS in non-league games.
Under Lanning, Oregon is 15-6 ATS coming off a win.


Oregon State (2-0)
OSU outgained San Diego State 420-179 in LW’s 21-0 win.
Last two years, Beavers were 18-8 SU, but they’ve been gutted.
Oregon State has 4 starters back on offense, 1 on defense.
Beavers have 93 returning starts on OL, from various places.
Junior QB McCoy started 23 games at I-AA Idaho.


Last four years, Oregon State is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
Beavers are 13-6 ATS in last 19 non-league games.
Beavers are 20-7 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.
Oregon State has new coach, new QB, no league to play in; the former coach is a Beaver alum, and he bolted. I’m guessing they have a chip on their shoulders.


Home team won last five meetings,
Ducks lost last two visits to Corvallis, 38-34/41-38.
Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.


Tulane @ Oklahoma (-13)
Tulane (1-1)
Green Wave lost 34-27 at home to K-State LW.
K-State ran ball for 215 yards; Tulane outgained them, 491-396.
Last 2+ years, Tulane is 24-6 SU/15-11 ATS.
Green Wave has 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Green Wave has 143 returning starts on offensive line.
Redshirt frosh QB Mensah threw for 342 yards LW.


Last 4+ years, Tulane is 10-6-1 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2016, Green Wave is 23-14 ATS in non-league games.
New coach Sumrall is 7-1 ATS as an underdog.
Tulane is 17-7 ATS in last 24 games coming off a loss.


Oklahoma (2-0)
Oklahoma won first two games, 51-3/16-12.
Since 2015, Sooners are 96-24 SU (18-10 under Venables)
Oklahoma has 7 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Sooners have 114 returning starts on the offensive line.
QB Gabriel bolted to Oregon; soph QB is 36-57/310 passing.


Under Venables, Oklahoma is 9-5 ATS as a home favorite.
Since 2015, Sooners are 35-22 ATS as a home favorite.
LW, Oklahoma was outgained 318-249 in 16-12 win over Houston.
Sooners are 11-5 ATS in last 16 non-conference games.
Oklahoma opens SEC play next week, when they host Tennessee.


Three years ago, Oklahoma (-32) edged Tulane 40-35.


Notre Dame (-9.5) @ Purdue
Notre Dame (1-1)
Notre Dame won 23-13 at Texas &M, then lost 16-14 to NIU.
Northern Illinois outgained the Irish, 388-286
Irish have 6 starters back on offense, 9 on defense.
Notre Dame has 34 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Leonard started 21 games at Duke.


Since 2017, Notre Dame is 15-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 3-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Under Freeman, Notre Dame is 6-3 ATS in all road games.
Since 2016, Notre Dame is 13-8 ATS coming off a loss


Purdue (1-0)
Purdue’s only game was 49-0 win over a I-AA team.
Purdue was 4-8 last year, its 4th losing season in six years.
Boilermakers have 8 starters back on offense, 6 on defense.
Purdue has 165 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Card has 16 career starts.


Last two years, Purdue is 1-10 ATS at home.
Last ten years, Purdue is 10-21 ATS as a home underdog.
Last two years, Boilers are 2-5 ATS in non-conference games.
Purdue is 7-14 ATS, in last 21 games coming off a win.


Notre Dame is 8-0 SU/4-4 ATS in last eight meetings.
Notre Dame is 4-5 ATS in last nine visits to West Lafayette.
Under is 7-2-1 in last ten series games.


Washington State vs Washington (-4.5) (@ Seattle, on Seahawks’ field)
Washington State (2-0)
Wazzu ran for 301 yards LW, hammered Texas Tech, 37-16.
Coogs have 6 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Wazzu has 63 returning starts on offensive line.
Soph QB Mateer is 20-36/467 passing in two games.


Wazzu is 6-4-1 ATS in last 11 games as a road dog.
In his career, Dickert is 9-5-1 ATS as an underdog.
Coogs are 12-6-1 ATS in last 19 games coming off a win.
Coogs are 17-16 SU/19-12-1 ATS under coach Dickert.


Washington (2-0)
Washington went 25-3 last two years, now is in a rebuild.
New coach Fisch was at Arizona; new DC is Steve Belichick.
Huskies have 2 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Huskies have 36 returning starts on offensive line, none of them here.
Senior QB Rogers started 40 games at Mississippi State.


Washington is 12-20-1 ATS last 33 games as a favorite.
Last two years, Huskies are 7-1-1 ATS in non-conference games.
In his career, Fisch is 5-6 ATS as a favorite.
Washington opens Big 18 play next week, against Northwestern.


Washington is 12-2 SU/10-4 ATS in last 14 series games.
Under is 6-4 in last ten meetings.


West Virginia (-2) @ Pittsburgh
West Virginia (1-1)
WVU lost 34-12 at home to Penn State, beat I-AA team 49-14 LW.
Mountaineers have 8 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Mountaineers have 113 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Greene has 14 career starts.


Since 2020, WVU is 1-5 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Brown is 10-10 ATS as a road favorite.
Last two years, WVU was 6-1 ATS in non-conference games.
Mountaineers are 11-16 ATS in last 27 games coming off a win.


Pittsburgh (2-0)
Pitt was 3-9 last year, their worst season since 2017.
Panthers have 9 starters back on offense, 4 on defense.
Panthers have 58 returning starts on the offensive line.
Frosh QB Holstein was 20-35/302 passing LW, with three TD’s.


Pitt gained 570/498 TY in 55-24/28-27 wins so far.
Panthers beat Cincinnati 28-27 LW, after trailing 27-6.
Pitt is 8-5 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.
Under Narduzzi, Pitt is 25-23 ATS as an underdog.
Last 10 years, Panthers are 16-26-2 ATS in non-ACC games.


West Virginia won four of last five series games.
WVU is 5-3 ATS in last eight visits to Pittsburgh.
Under is 5-2 in last seven meetings.
Big X teams are 12-5-1 ATS in last 18 games vs ACC opponents.


Ole Miss (-22.5) @ Wake Forest
Ole Miss (2-0)
Ole Miss beat MTSU 52-3 LW, after beating a stiff 76-0.
Rebels have 10 starters back on offense, 10 on defense.
Rebels have 222 returning starts on offensive line (VERY experienced).
Junior QB Dart has started 25 games.


Under Kiffin, Ole Miss is 7-3-1 ATS as a road favorite.
Last four years, Ole Miss is 11-5 ATS in non-conference games.
Last three years, Rebels are 16-11-2 ATS coming off a win.
Rebels threw ball for 926 yards in their first two games.


Wake Forest (1-1)
Wake threw for 403 yards LW, but lost 31-30 to Virginia.
Deacons led 30-17 after three quarters last week.
Deacons have 8 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
Wake Forest has 69 returning starts on offensive line.
Senior QB Bachmeier had 37 starts at Boise State/Louisiana Tech.


Last five years, Wake is 4-2 ATS as home underdog.
Deacons are 9-6 ATS in last 15 games coming off a loss.
Deacons are 12-9 ATS in last 21 non-conference games.
Virginia threw for 357 yards in last week’s game.


These teams haven’t met since 2008.
Since start of LY, ACC teams are 9-6 ATS vs SEC opponents.


Indiana (-3) @ UCLA
Indiana (2-0)
Hoosiers beat FIU 31-7, beat a I-AA stiff 77-3 last week.
Curt Cignetti was 52-10 in five years at James Madison.
Hoosiers have 10 starters back on offense, 11 on defense.
Hoosiers have 119 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Rourke started 33 games at Ohio U.


Last three years, Indiana is 10-17 ATS in conference games.
Since 2018, Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS as a road favorite.
In his career, Cignetti is 6-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Indiana is 5-11 ATS in its last sixteen road games.


UCLA (1-0)
Last three years, UCLA was 25-13, but Chip Kelly bolted to be OC at Ohio State.
New coach Foster is 44, has no head coaching experience.
Eric Biemiemy is the new OC (14 years as an NFL assistant)
UCLA has 7 starters back on offense, 5 on defense.
Bruins have 101 returning starts on the offensive line.
Senior QB Garbers started 6 games last year.


Bruins (-13.5) won opener 16-13 at Hawai’i, two weeks ago.
Last three years, UCLA is 4-1 ATS as a home dog.
Last two years, UCLA is 6-10 ATS coming off a win.
Last four years, Bruins are 10-6 ATS as an underdog.


For whatever reasons, these teams are in the same league now.
These teams have never met.


Colorado @ Colorado State
Colorado (1-1)
Colorado lost 28-10 LW, after edging a I-AA team 31-26.
From 2021-23, Colorado was 9-27 SU/15-21 ATS
Tigers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Tigers have 100 returning starts on offensive line, and a new OL coach.
QB Sanders started 11 games LY, after playing multiple years at I-AA Jackson State.


Last ten years, Colorado is 2-4 ATS as a road favorite.
Buffs are 3-7 ATS in last 10 non-conference games.
Last year, Colorado was 5-2 ATS coming off a loss.
In two games, Buffs ran ball 45 times for only 75 yards.


Colorado State (1-1)
CSU beat a I-AA team 38-17, after losing 52-0 at Texas.
Rams have 7 starters back on offense, 7 on defense.
CSU has 94 starts returning on the offensive line.
Rams’ soph QB has 11 starts; he threw 22 TD’s, 16 INT’s last year.


Rams have had six consecutive losing seasons.
CSU is 3-6 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
In his career, Norvell is 26-18 ATS as an underdog.
CSU was outgained 545-192 in the loss at Texas.


Colorado is 6-0 SU/4-1-1 ATS in last six meetings.
This is Buffs’ first visit to Fort Collins since 1996.
Under is 10-3 in last 13 series games (over 2-0 last two)


Maryland (-2.5) @ Virginia
Maryland (1-1)
Terps gave up 363 PY in last week’s 27-24 loss to Michigan State
Maryland is already +5 in turnovers this year.
Maryland has 4 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Terps have 21 returning starts on OL.
Soph QB Morris started six games at NC State.


Since 2020, Maryland is 4-2 ATS as a road favorite.
Since 2020, Maryland is 6-10 ATS coming off a loss.
Under Locksley, Terps are 12-5 ATS in non-league games.
Terps were outgained 493-339 by Michigan State LW.


Virginia (2-0)
Virginia outscored Wake 14-0 in 4th quarter of LW’s 31-30 win.
Deacons threw for 403 yards, Virginia threw for 357.
Cavaliers have 8 starters back on offense, 8 on defense.
Cavaliers have 81 returning starts on the offensive line.
Soph QB started six games last year.


Under Elliott, Virginia is 12-5 ATS as an underdog.
Since 2014, Virginia is 17-9 ATS as a home underdog.
Under Elliott, Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in non-league games.
Virginia is 12-5 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.


Maryland won four of last five meetings.
Terps won 27-20/42-23 in last two visits to Charlottesville.
Over is 4-1 in last five series games.
Big 18 teams are 14-10 ATS in last 24 games vs ACC opponents.
 

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FRIDAY, SEPTEMBER 13

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
UNLV at KU07:00 PMUNLV +9.5
O 57.5
+500 +500
ARIZ at KSU08:00 PMKSU -6.5
U 60.5
+500 +500
 

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NCAAFB BEST BETS AUGUST-SEPTEMBER!

09/13/2024............................3 - 1 - 0...............................75.00%.........................+ 9.50
09/12/2024............................0 - 4 - 0...............................00.00%.........................- 22.00
09/07/2024..........................21 - 17 - 0............................55.26%..........................+ 11.20
09/06/2024.............................0 - 4 - 0............................00.00%...........................- 22.00
09/02/2024.............................1 - 1 - 0............................50.00%............................- 0.50
09/01/2024.............................1 - 1 - 0............................50.00%............................- 0.50
08/30/2024..........,................17 - 13 - 1.........................56.66%.............................+ 13.50
08/29/2024.............................13 - 4 - 2.........................76.47%.............................+ 43.00

TOTALS.................................56 - 45 - 3..........................55.44%.............................+ 35.20
 

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Saturday’s 6-pack:
Highest-paid CB’s in the NFL:
$24.1M/year— Jalen Ramsey, Mia
$24M— Patrick Surtain, Den
$21M— Jaire Alexander, GB
$20.3M— AJ Terrell, Atl
$19.5M— Marlon Humphrey, Belt
$19.4M— Marshon Lattimore, NO

Tweet of the Day
“Be a good listener. Your ears will never get you in trouble.”
Frank Tyger

Saturday’s quiz
In the old Batman TV series, what well-known actor played the Egghead?

Friday’s quiz
Wade Phillips replaced Marv Levy as coach of the Buffalo Bills.

Thursday’s quiz
In the movie Bull Durham, Robert Wuhl plays the Bulls’ pitching coach.

**************************************

Saturday’s Den: Wrapping up a fall Friday……..

— UNLV 23, Kansas 20
UNLV scored winning TD with 2:00 left, ending an 18-play, 75-yard drive.
UNLV QB Sluka ran for 113 yards, completed only 7-18 passes.
Rebels threw a 27-yard TD pass on last play of second quarter.
UNLV is 3-0 for first time since 1984, when Randall Cunningham was QB.

— Kansas State 31, Arizona 7
K-State ran ball for 235 yards, Arizona 56.
Dylan Edwards ran a punt back 71 yards for a TD.
Loss ended Arizona’s nine-game winning streak.

— Tigers 1, Orioles 0
Four Detroit pitchers combined to throw a one-hitter.
Gunnar Henderson’s 9th inning triple was Baltimore’s only hit.
Kerry Carpenter homered on Zach Eflin’s 3rd pitch of the game.

— Bronx 5, Red Sox 4
Boston led this game 4-0 in 7th inning.
Aaron Judge hit a grand slam for the game-winning hit.
Bronx has a 3-game lead in the AL East.

— Mariners 5, Rangers 4
Julio Rodriguez hit a 3-run homer in the 8th inning.
Rangers led this game 4-0 in 7th inning.
Jacob deGrom made his first start since April 28, 2023; he threw 61 pitches.

— A’s 2, White Sox 0
Rookie P Basso got 16 outs, didn’t give up a run, got his first MLB win.
Oakland is 28-22 since the All-Star break.
White Sox were shut out for the 18th time this season.

Famous birthdays, September 14th:
Larry Brown, 84
Alvin Scott, 69
Tim Wallach, 67
David Bell, 52
Chad Bradford, 50
Brandon Hicks, 39
Jimmy Butler, 35
Deshaun Watson, 29

— Royals 8, Pirates 3
Kansas City scored six runs in the second inning.
34-year old Salvador Perez has 27 home runs, 104 RBI
Loss snaps Pittsburgh’s 4-game winning streak.

— Blue Jays 4, Cardinals 3 (11)
Alejandro Kirk knocked in the game-winning run.
St Louis was 2-19 with runners in scoring position.
Cardinals 2B Thomas Saggese hit his first MLB home run.

— Reds 8, Twins 4
Elly De La Cruz hit his 24th home run, his first career grand slam.
Minnesota lost for 7th time in its last ten games.
Twins lead Detroit for the last AL playoff spot, by 2.5 games.

Movie of the Day: The Company Men (2010)— A major company downsizes, and the lives of three men are affected in different ways.
Great cast: Ben Affleck, Tommy Lee Jones, Kevin Costner, Craig T Nelson, Mario Bello.
Kind a sad movie with something of an upbeat ending. Good movie, though.

— Padres 5, Giants 0
Dylan Cease struck out 10 in six shutout IP.
Fernando Tatis Jr hit a 2-run home run.
Giants were shut out for the second game in a row.

— Brewers 2, Diamondbacks 1
Rhys Hoskins hit a 2-run homer for the Brewers.
Milwaukee leads the NL Central by 10 games.
Freddie Peralta allowed 10 baserunners in 5 IP, but only one run.

— Mets 11, Phillies 3
Jose Quintana tossed seven shutout IP.
Mets won for 12th time in last 14 games.
Phillies still lead NL East by seven games.

— Nationals 4, Marlins 1
DJ Herz allowed only one run in 5 IP.
Luis Garcia homered for first time in 101 AB’s vs lefty pitchers.
Three of Washington’s four runs were unearned.

— Rockies 9, Cubs 5
Hunter Goodman homered twice, including an 8th inning grand slam.
Cubs are now six games behind the Mets for the NL’s last playoff spot.

— Braves 6, Dodgers 2
Braves led this game 5-0 in second inning.
Schwellenbach threw 6 IP, giving up two runs.
Atlanta is a game behind the Mets for the NL’s last playoff spot.
 

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SATURDAY, SEPTEMBER 14

GameTime(ET)PickUnits
LSU at SOCAR12:00 PMSOCAR +6.5+500
MEM at FSU12:00 PMMEM +6.5+500
OKST at TLSA12:00 PMOKST -18.5+500
ALA at WIS12:00 PMWIS +15.5
U 48.5
+500 +500
UNT at TTU12:00 PMUNT +10.5+500
CMU at ILL12:00 PMCMU +21.5+500
BC at MIZZ12:45 PMU 52.5+500
CCU at TEM02:00 PMCCU -17.5+500
IDST at UND02:00 PMUND -10.5+500
TULN at OKLA03:30 PMTULN +12.5+500
TAM at FLA03:30 PMTAM -3.5+500
VMI at GT03:30 PMU 56.5+500
WSU at WASH03:30 PMWSU +4.5+500
ORE at ORST03:30 PMO 49.5+500
WVU at PITT03:30 PMU 61.5+500
MORG at OHIO03:30 PMOHIO -24.5+500
NEV at MINN03:30 PMMINN -17.5+500
ND at PUR03:30 PMO 46.5+500
APP at ECU04:00 PMECU +1.5+500
TROY at IOWA04:00 PMIOWA -23.5+500
UAB at ARK04:15 PMARK -22.5+500
UTAH at USU04:30 PMO 43.5+500
FIU at FAU06:00 PMFAU -4.5+500
VT at ODU06:00 PMU 47.5+500
MISS at WAKE06:30 PMMISS -21.5
O 64.5
+500 +500
HAW at SHSU07:00 PMSHSU -3.5
U 47.5
+500 +500
WKU at MTU07:00 PMU 54.5+500
USF at USM07:00 PMUSF -11.5+500
UTSA at TEX07:00 PMTEX -35.5+500
KENN at SJSU07:00 PMO 42.5+500
VAN at GSU07:00 PMVAN -9.5
O 44.5
+500 +500
COLO at CSU07:30 PMCSU +7.5+500
UNI at NEB07:30 PMNEB -30.5+500
AFA at BAY07:30 PMO 41.5+500
UCF at TCU07:30 PMUCF +2.5+500
UGA at UK07:30 PMUGA -21.5
O 44.5
+500 +500
EIU at NW07:30 PMU 36.5+500
TOL at MSST07:30 PMTOL +10.5
O 57.5
+500 +500
IU at UCLA07:30 PMIU -2.5+500
KENT at TENN07:45 PMU 62.5+500
MD at UVA08:00 PMUVA +1.5+500
BYU at WYO09:00 PMBYU -9.5+500
NMSU at FRES10:30 PMNMSU +19.5+500
SDSU at CAL10:30 PMSDSU +18.5
O 47.5
+500 +500
 

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NCAAFB BEST BETS AUGUST-SEPTEMBER!

09/14/2024.........................18 - 15 - 0.............................54.54%.........................+ 7.50
09/13/2024............................3 - 1 - 0.............................75.00%.........................+ 9.50
09/12/2024............................0 - 4 - 0.............................00.00%.........................- 22.00
09/07/2024..........................21 - 17 - 0............................55.26%.........................+ 11.20
09/06/2024.............................0 - 4 - 0............................00.00%.........................- 22.00
09/02/2024.............................1 - 1 - 0............................50.00%..........................- 0.50
09/01/2024.............................1 - 1 - 0............................50.00%..........................- 0.50
08/30/2024..........,................17 - 13 - 1.........................56.66%............................+ 13.50
08/29/2024.............................13 - 4 - 2.........................76.47%............................+ 43.00

TOTALS.................................74 - 60 - 3..........................55.22%...........................+ 42.70
 
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