NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up
Thursday, March 2
13 of Thursday’s best college basketball games
Sun Belt tournament (@ Pensacola, FL)
Appalachian State vs South Alabama
— Appalachian State (16-15, 9-9) ranked #178 by KenPom
— Tempo: #297
— Experience: #278
— Continuity: #257
— App State is 3-5 SU in its last eight games.
— Last 5 years, App State is 4-1 SU in its first conference tourney game.
— ASU is shooting 48.8% inside arc (#245), 32.8% on arc (#243)
— ASU has #54 eFG% defense in country.
— App State is 6-8 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— App State’s schedule, to this point: #164
— bench minutes: #127
— App State’s best win: 71-62 at #95 James Madison
— South Alabama (16-15, 9-9) ranked #102 by KenPom
— Tempo: #257
— Experience: #197
— Continuity: #346
— South Alabama won eight of its last ten games
— USA is 2-3 SU in last first round of tourney last five years
— South Alabama has #30 eFG% defense in country.
— Jaguars are 3-9 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Jaguars are 11-5 vs teams ranked outside top 150.
— South Alabama’s schedule, to this point: #138
— bench minutes: #339
— South Alabama’s best win: 85-54 over #89 Southern Miss.
— South Alabama (-3.5) beat App State 74-57 at home February 11.
— USA shot 65% inside arc, led 40-26 at halftime.
— Jaguars are 5-4 in last nine series games.
Horizon tournament (@ campus sites)
Oakland @ Northern Kentucky
— Oakland (13-18, 11-9) ranked #275 by KenPom
— Tempo: #129
— Experience: #53
— Continuity: #42
— Oakland is 4-3 SU in its last seven games.
— Last five years, Grizzlies won their first Horizon tourney game.
— Grizzlies are 5-5 SU/7-2 ATS as a Horizon road underdog.
— Oakland has #337 eFG% defense in country.
— Oakland is 8-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Oakland’s schedule, to this point: #219
— bench minutes: #357
— Oakland’s best win: 64-63 at #177 Northern Kentucky
— Northern Kentucky (19-12, 14-6) ranked #177 by KenPom
— Tempo: #357
— Experience: #87
— Continuity: #22
— NKU won four of its last five games
— Norse is 8-2 SU/4-5 ATS as a Horizon home favorite.
— NKU forces turnovers 23.6% of time (#12)
— NKU is #334 team on defensive boards.
— Norse won Horizon tourney three of last six years.
— NKU’s schedule, to this point: #260
— bench minutes: #272
— NKU’s best win: 64-51 over #66 Cincinnati
— Northern Kentucky won seven of last nine series games.
— Teams split two meetings this year; road team won both times.
Detroit @ Youngstown State
— Detroit (14-18, 10-11) ranked #201 by KenPom
— Tempo: #180
— Experience: #54
— Continuity: #287
— Detroit won four of its last six games
— Titans are 4-6 SU/3-5 ATS as a Horizon road underdog.
— Detroit is shooting 46.5% inside arc (#315), 39.3% on arc (#6)
— Titans have #320 eFG% defense in country.
— Davis needs 26 points to become CB’s all-time leading scorer.
— Detroit’s schedule, to this point: #245
— bench minutes: #123
— Detroit’s best win: 70-49 over #112 Charlotte.
— Youngstown State (23-8, 15-5) ranked #118 by KenPom
— Tempo: #149
— Experience: #15
— Continuity: #263
— Youngstown won 13 of its last 16 games.
— Last six years, Penguins are 3-3 in first Horizon tourney game.
— Youngstown is 9-1 SU/7-3 ATS as a Horizon home favorite.
— Penguins have #14 eFG% in country.
— Youngstown is 4-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Youngstown’s schedule, to this point: #325
— bench minutes: #308
— Youngstown’s best win: 74-56 over #177 Northern Kentucky
— Youngstown beat Detroit twice TY, 84-79/73-63.
— Penguins won six of last eight series games.
— Detroit lost three of its last four visits to Youngstown.
Wright State @ Milwaukee
— Wright State (18-14, 11-10) ranked #181 by KenPom
— Tempo: #21
— Experience: #99
— Continuity: #62
— Wright State is 7-4 in its last eleven games.
— Wright State is 5-5 SU/1-3 ATS as a Horizon road favorite.
— Wright State won this tournament last year.
— Raiders are shooting 54.2% inside arc (#36)
— Raiders are 4-7 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Wright State’s schedule, to this point: #312
— bench minutes: #216
— Wright State’s best win: 83-65 over #177 Northern Kentucky
— Milwaukee (20-10, 14-6) ranked #229 by KenPom
— Tempo: #17
— Experience: #354
— Continuity: #351
— Milwaukee won six of its last nine games.
— Panthers are 8-2 SU/2-0 ATS as a Horizon home underdog.
— Since 2014, Milwaukee is 5-2 in its first Horizon tourney game.
— Milwaukee is turning ball over 22.1% of time (#348)
— Panthers are #340 team on defensive boards.
— Milwaukee’s schedule, to this point: #293
— bench minutes: #86
— Milwaukee’s best win: 88-75 over #118 Youngstown State
— Wright State beat Milwaukee twice TY, 78-74 OT/93-86
— Raiders won nine of last ten series games.
— Wright State won last three visits here, by 3-4-4 points.
Atlantic Sun tournament
Lipscomb @ Kennesaw State
— Lipscomb (20-12, 12-7) ranked #156 by KenPom
— Tempo: #69
— Experience: #274
— Continuity: #98
— Lipscomb won four in row, seven of last nine games
— Lipscomb’s last three wins were all on road.
— Bisons are 9-4 in last 13 tourney games; they won it in 2018.
— Bisons have #34 eFG% in country.
— Lipscomb is #32 team on defensive boards.
— Lipscomb’s schedule, to this point: #234
— bench minutes: #81
— Lipscomb’s best win: 69-64 over #41 Liberty
— Kennesaw State (24-8, 16-3) ranked #133 by KenPom
— Tempo: #117
— Experience: #57
— Continuity: #2
— Kennesaw won 14 of its last 16 games.
— This is Owls’ first winning season in 18 years in D-I
— Kennesaw is forcing turnovers 20.1% of time (#75)
— Owls are shooting 36.7% on arc (#47)
— Kennesaw is #60 team in country on defensive boards.
— Kennesaw’s schedule, to this point: #200
— bench minutes: #214
— Kennesaw’s best win: 88-81 over #41 Liberty
— Lipscomb lost 85-72 at Kennesaw State January 28.
— Before that, Lipscomb had won previous 12 series games.
Elsewhere………
Michigan @ Illinois
— Michigan (17-12, 11-7) ranked #42 by KenPom
— Tempo: #146
— Experience: #309
— Continuity: #273
— Michigan won six of its last eight games
— Wolverines are 3-5 SU/2-5 ATS as a Big 14 road underdog.
— Michigan has #67 eFG% defense in country.
— Wolverines are 4-10 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Michigan is 7-10 vs teams ranked in top 50.
— Michigan’s schedule, to this point: #34
— bench minutes: #303
— Michigan’s best win: 81-46 over #20 Maryland.
— Illinois (19-10, 10-8) ranked #36 by KenPom
— Tempo: #68
— Experience: #296
— Continuity: #343
— Illinois is 3-4 in its last seven games.
— Illini is 6-2 SU/5-3 ATS as a Big 14 home favorite.
— Illini is shooting 55.7% inside arc (#16), 31% on arc (#330)
— Opponents are shooting 44.5% inside arc (#10)
— Illinois is 2-3 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— You’re reading armadillosports.com
— Illinois’ schedule, to this point: #56
— bench minutes: #168
— Illinois’ best win: 79-70 over #2 UCLA
— Illinois won last five series games.
— Wolverines lost 71-62/68-53 in last two visits to Illinois.
— Big 14 home favorites of 4 or less points are 29-9 ATS
Middle Tennessee @ North Texas
— Middle Tennessee (18-11, 11-7) ranked #117 by KenPom
— Tempo: #190
— Experience: #209
— Continuity: #24
— MTSU won five of its last seven games
— MTSU is 2-6 SU/2-4 ATS as a C-USA road underdog.
— Blue Raiders are forcing turnovers 21.8% of time (#28)
— Blue Raiders are #228 team on defensive boards.
— MTSU is 7-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— MTSU’s schedule, to this point: #119
— bench minutes: #199
— MTSU’s best win: 74-70 over #32 Florida Atlantic
— North Texas (23-6, 14-4) ranked #54 by KenPom
— Tempo: #363
— Experience: #162
— Continuity: #139
— North Texas won eight of its last nine games.
— Mean Green is 6-2 SU/2-5-1 ATS as a C-USA home favorite.
— Mean Green is shooting 38.2% on arc in C-USA games (#1)
— Opponents are getting 23.9% of points on foul line (#358)
— North Texas is 9-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— North Texas’ schedule, to this point: #112
— bench minutes: #231
— North Texas’ best wins: 63-52/82-79 2OT over #59 UAB
— North Texas (-3) won 56-51 at MTSU January 7th.
— Mean Green won last four series games.
— MTSU split their last four visits to Denton.
— C-USA home favorites of 8 or less points are 15-20 ATS
Florida Atlantic @ Rice
— Florida Atlantic (26-3, 16-2) ranked #32 by KenPom
— Tempo: #126
— Experience: #139
— Continuity: #25
— FAU won five of its last six games SU
— Owls are 6-2 SU/4-2 ATS as a C-USA road favorite.
— FAU has #24 eFG%, #26 eFG% defense.
— Owls are #30 team on defensive boards.
— FAU is 8-1 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— FAU’s schedule, to this point: #150
— bench minutes: #9
— FAU’s best win: 50-46/66-62 over #54 North Texas
— Rice (17-12, 8-10) ranked #189 by KenPom
— Tempo: #44
— Experience: #115
— Continuity: #135
— Rice lost seven of its last nine games.
— Owls are 3-5 SU/0-2 ATS as a C-USA home underdog.
— Rice has #330 eFG% defense in country.
— Rice is shooting 53.1% inside arc (#68)
— Owls are 1-5 against top 100 teams.
— Rice’s schedule, to this point: #127
— bench minutes: #361
— Rice’s best win: 72-60 at #54 North Texas
— FAU (-14) beat Rice 90-81 at home February 9.
— FAU won last four series games.
— FAU won 63-62/81-76 in last two visits to Rice.
Arizona State @ UCLA
— Arizona State (20-9, 11-7) ranked #63 by KenPom
— Tempo: #133
— Experience: #66
— Continuity: #237
— Arizona State won four of its last five games
— Arizona State is 6-2 SU/4-1 ATS as a Pac-12 road underdog.
— Opponents are shooting 43% inside the arc (#5)
— Sun Devils have #282 eFG% in country.
— Sun Devils are 10-3 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Arizona State’s schedule, to this point: #59
— bench minutes: #134
— Arizona State’s best win: 89-88 at #12 Arizona
— UCLA (25-4, 16-2) ranked #2 by KenPom
— Tempo: #256
— Experience: #106
— Continuity: #150
— UCLA won its last eight games (4-3-1 ATS)
— UCLA is 8-0 SU/4-4 ATS as a Pac-12 home favorite.
— Bruins are #25 team in country on offensive boards.
— Bruins are forcing turnovers 24.3% of time (#6)
— UCLA has #27 eFG% defense in country.
— UCLA’s schedule, to this point: #42
— bench minutes: #282
— UCLA’s best win: 87-60 at #20 Maryland
— UCLA (-4.5) won 74-62 at Arizona State January 19
— Bruins won five of last six meetings.
— Sun Devils lost last three visits to Westwood, by 3-1-14 points.
— Pac-12 double digit home favorites are 13-15 ATS
Cal-Santa Barbara @ Cal-Davis
— UCSB (22-7, 13-5) ranked #113 by KenPom
— Tempo: #325
— Experience: #70
— Continuity: #18
— UCSB split its last eight games overall.
— UCSB won seven of its nine Big West road games.
— Gauchos are 15-0 scoring 68+ points, 7-7 scoring 67 or less.
— Gauchos are shooting 54.9% inside arc (#25)
— UCSB is 7-2 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— UCSB’s schedule, to this point: #227
— bench minutes: #331
— UCSB’s best win: 73-65 at #99 Cal-Irvine.
— Cal-Davis (17-12, 10-7) ranked #139 by KenPom
— Tempo: #39
— Experience: #100
— Continuity: #75
— Cal-Davis won three of its last four games.
— Aggies won six of their eight Big West home games.
— Aggies are turning ball over 20.7% of time (#322)
— Cal-Davis is getting 22.3% of its points on foul line (#21)
— Cal-Davis is 5-7 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Cal-Davis’ schedule, to this point: #206
— bench minutes: #219
— Cal-Davis’ best win: 83-79 over #120 Cal-Fullerton.
— Gauchos (-6) beat Cal-Davis 84-74 at home February 11.
— UCSB won last six series games.
— Gauchos won last three visits to Cal-Davis, the last two in overtime.
— Big West home teams are 12-14 ATS, in games with spread of 3 or less.
Cal-Irvine @ Cal-Riverside
— Cal-Irvine (20-10, 13-5) ranked #99 by KenPom
— Tempo: #59
— Experience: #218
— Continuity: #129
— Irvine lost its last two games, after a 7-1 run.
— Irvine is 6-3 SU/5-4 ATS in Big West road games.
— Opponents are shooting 44.6% inside arc (#11)
— Opponents are getting 23.1% of their points on foul line (#349)
— Anteaters are 6-5 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Irvine’s schedule, to this point: #147
— bench minutes: #12
— Irvine’s best win: 69-56 at #47 Oregon
— Cal-Riverside (20-10, 13-5) ranked #134 by KenPom
— Tempo: #192
— Experience: #130
— Continuity: #156
— Riverside won its last four games, scoring 78 ppg.
— UCR is 7-2 SU/5-4 ATS in Big West home games.
— Riverside is getting only 15.1% of its points on foul line (#330)
— Riverside is #12 team on defensive boards.
— UCR is 12-6 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— Riverside’s schedule, to this point: #128
— bench minutes: #117
— Riverside’s best win: 81-79 at #101 LMU.
— Irvine (-7) beat Riverside 83-64 at home February 11.
— Anteaters won 18 of last 19 series games.
— Irvine won seven of its last eight visits to Riverside.
— Big West home teams are 12-14 ATS, in games with spread of 3 or less.
Arizona @ USC
— Arizona (24-5, 13-5) ranked #12 by KenPom
— Tempo: #7
— Experience: #59
— Continuity: #166
— Arizona split its last four games, after a 22-3 start.
— Arizona is 5-3 SU in its Pac-12 road games.
— Wildcats allowed 81+ points in four of their five losses.
— Wildcats are shooting 56.6% inside arc (#8), 37.4% on arc (#30)
— Arizona has #44 eFG% defense in country.
— Arizona’s schedule, to this point: #57
— bench minutes: #288
— Arizona’s best win: 58-52 over #2 UCLA
— USC (21-8, 13-5) ranked #34 by KenPom
— Tempo: #135
— Experience: #137
— Continuity: #146
— USC won four in row, eight of last ten games.
— USC is 8-0 SU/6-2 ATS in Pac-12 home games.
— Trojans have #8 eFG% defense in country.
— Trojans are #322 team in country on defensive boards.
— USC is 6-4 in games decided by 7 or less points.
— USC’s schedule, to this point: #51
— bench minutes: #284
— USC’s best win: 77-64 over #2 UCLA
— Arizona (-7) beat USC 81-66 at home January 19.
— Wildcats won last four series games, all by 9+ points.
— Arizona won 81-72/91-71 in last two visits to Galen Center.
— Pac-12 home teams are 8-11 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
Washington State @ Washington
— Washington State (15-15, 10-9) ranked #57 by KenPom
— Tempo: #329
— Experience: #287
— Continuity: #228
— Wazzu won its last five games SU.
— Wazzu is 3-6 SU/2-5 ATS as a Pac-12 road underdog.
— Coogs are shooting 36.3% on the arc (#62)
— Coogs are getting 39.2% of their points on arc (#11)
— Wazzu is #62 team in country on defensive boards.
— Wazzu’s schedule, to this point: #23
— bench minutes: #263
— Wazzu’s best win: 74-61 at #12 Arizona
— Washington (16-14, 8-11) ranked #100 by KenPom
— Tempo: #74
— Experience: #148
— Continuity: #240
— Washington won three of its last four games
— Huskies are 6-3 SU/ATS in Pac-12 home games.
— Washington has #272 eFG% in country.
— Huskies are turning ball over 20.2% of time (#307)
— Washington is #349 team on defensive boards.
— Washington’s schedule, to this point: #45
— bench minutes: #246
— Washington’s best win: 68-64 in OT over Saint Mary’s.
— Wazzu (-7) beat Washington 56-51 at home February 11.
— Coogs won five of last seven series games.
— Wazzu split their last six visits to Seattle.
— Pac-12 home teams are 8-11 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
