NFL
Armadillo's Write-up
Week 14
Thursday game
Raiders (5-7) @ Rams (3-9)
— Las Vegas won its last three games, two of them in overtime.
— Last two weeks, Raiders ran ball for 218.5 yards/game.
— Raiders are 2-5 SU on road TY, with both wins in overtime.
— Las Vegas is 2-9-1 ATS in last dozen games as a road favorite.
— Raiders are 2-5 SU in games decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Las Vegas led 17-0 in three of their seven losses.
— Last 11 games, Las Vegas’ opponent is 8-2-1 against its team total.
— Las Vegas is 12-8 ATS in last 20 games coming off a win.
— Under is 4-2 in last six Raider games.
— Derek Carr is 62-78 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders are 10-18-2 ATS in last 30 games vs NFC teams.
— Rams lost six in row, eight of last nine games.
— Rams are 1-4-1 ATS in last six games.
— LA ran ball for 171 yards LW, their best rushing day this season.
— Rams are 3-2 scoring 20+ points, 0-7 when they score less.
— In their losses, LA was outscored 121-46 in second half.
— Last three games, Rams converted 21-65 (32.3%) on third down.
— Rams stayed under their team total eight of last ten games.
— Under McVay, Rams are 2-4 ATS as a home underdog.
— Rams are 2-9-1 ATS last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
— Over is 3-1 in their last four games.
— Rams have four takeaways in last two games (one in previous seven).
— Rams won four of last five meetings.
— Raiders came to SoFi in Week 1, losing 24-19 to the Chargers- they visit SoFi once a year.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.
Sunday’s games
Jaguars (4-8) @ Titans (7-5)
— Jacksonville split its last four games after 2-6 start.
— Jaguars are 2-6 in one-score games (decided by 8 or less points).
— Jaguars are 1-5 SU/ATS in true road games this year (won @ Chargers Week 3).
— Jaguars are 10-22-1 ATS in last 33 games as a road underdog.
— Last three games, Jaguars converted 11-39 on third down.
— Last three games, opponents converted 23-36 on third down.
— In his career, Pederson is 17-29 ATS in true road games.
— Jaguars are 10-23-1 ATS in last 34 games coming off a loss.
— Last three games, Jacksonville gave up 486-415-437 TY.
— Jaguars are 3-8-2 ATS last 13 AFC South road games.
— Three of their last four games went over.
— Titans fired their GM Tuesday, despite being in first place.
— Tennessee lost last two games, scoring 16-10 points.
— Titans are 0-2 SU since OC got a DUI coming home from road trip.
— Tennessee scored 19 or less points in seven of last eight games.
— Last three weeks, Titans were held to 63-88-63-87 rushing yards.
— First eight games, Titans ran ball for 142.3 yards/game.
— Tennessee has outscored opponents 157-106 in first half.
— Titans have been outscored 134-62 in second half.
— Opponents have converted only 49-161 (30.4%) third down plays.
— Tennessee held eight of last ten foes under their team total.
— Titans are 11-10 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (2-1 TY).
— Under is 9-3 in Titan games this season.
— Titans are 14-8 ATS last 22 AFC South home games vs NFC.
— Titans won four in row, 10 of last 11 meetings.
— Jaguars are 1-6 ATS in last seven visits to Nashville.
— Over is 7-5 in last dozen series games.
Jets (7-5) @ Bills (9-3)
— 2nd-year QB White is 61-87/684 with 3 TD’s in two ’22 starts.
— Jets are 2-3 in their last five games, after a 5-2 start.
— Despite that, Jets won/covered six of their last nine games.
— Jets are 6-1 scoring 20+ points, 1-4 scoring less than 20.
— Jets were in red zone six times LW, scored only 16 points.
— Last three games, Jets converted 13-42 on third down.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 9-16 ATS as an underdog.
— Five of last seven Jet games stayed under the total.
— Jets are 1-6 ATS in last seven AFC East road games.
— Jets held seven of last nine opponents under their team total.
— Jets are 4-0 ATS this season, coming off a loss.
— This is Bills’ first game in Buffalo since November 13.
— Bills won their last three games, scoring 31-28-24 points.
— Buffalo is 1-4-1 ATS since their bye week.
— Buffalo is 11-7 in last 18 games as a home favorite (2-2 TY)
— Last six games, Buffalo was outscored 70-46 in second half.
— Last six games, Bills ran ball for 155.7 yards/game.
— Bills scored 24 TD’s on their last 78 drives.
— Buffalo has 60 plays of 20+ yards (opponents 46)
— 10 of 12 Buffalo games stayed under the total.
— Bills are 18-12 ATS in last 30 games coming off a win (4-4 TY).
— Bills are 4-2 ATS in last six AFC East home games.
— Jets (+10) ran for 179 yards, beat Bills 20-17 in New Jersey in Week 9.
— Buffalo has still won five of last six meetings.
— Jets are 3-7 ATS in last ten visits to western New York.
— Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.
Ravens (8-4) @ Steelers (5-7)
— QB Jackson hurt his leg LW; backup Huntley is 1-3 as NFL starter.
— Jackson leads Ravens with 764 RY; next highest is Drake, with 421.
— Baltimore won six of its last eight games SU.
— Seven of last nine Raven games were decided by 5 or fewer points.
— Ravens led by 9+ points in all four of their losses TY.
— Ravens are 4-2 SU on road this season, 2-0 ATS as an underdog.
— Baltimore is 12-2-2 ATS last sixteen games as a road underdog.
— Last week, Ravens converted 3-13 on 3rd down.
— Seven of Ravens’ last nine games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore is 6-8 last 14 games coming off a win.
— Baltimore is 7-0 giving up 20 or less points, 1-4 if they give up more than 20.
— Pittsburgh is 3-1 since its bye week, with +6 turnover ratio.
— Steelers have no turnovers (+10) in their wins, 14 (-8) in losses.
— Steelers haven’t turned ball over since Week 8 vs Philly.
— In four post-bye games, Pittsburgh ran ball for 161.3 yards/game.
— In four post-bye games, Steelers converted 30-60 on third down
— Pittsburgh is 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
— Steelers are 4-8 ATS last 12 games coming off a win.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.
— Last four games, Steelers have 15 plays of 20+ yards (21 in first 8 games).
— Pittsburgh has been outscored 130-78 in 2nd half of games.
— QB Pickett is 4-4 as a starter in his rookie season.
— Steelers won last four meetings, all by 5 or fewer points.
— Ravens are 4-2-1 ATS in last seven visits to Pittsburgh.
— Three of last four series games stayed under the total.
Eagles (11-1) @ Giants (7-5)
— Eagles won last three games, scoring 40-35 points in last two.
— Philly is 5-0 SU on road this year, but 1-4 ATS.
— Eagles are 3-9 ATS last 12 games as a road favorite.
— Eagles lost average field position in four of their last five games.
— Eagles have 43 touchdowns on 117 drives this season.
— Last five games, Philly converted 26-57 3rd down plays (45.6%).
— Last three games, Eagle opponents converted 10-36 (27.7%) on 3rd down.
— Philly is 6-3 ATS this season coming off a win.
— Four of their last seven TD’s came on plays of 29+ yards.
— Eagles are 1-6 ATS in last seven NFC East road games.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 20-12 as an NFL starter.
— Giants are 1-3-1 SU last five games, after a 6-1 start.
— Giants are 5-0 scoring 21+ points, 2-4-1 scoring 20 or less.
— Giants trailed by 10+ points in three of their wins.
— Giants are 9-3 ATS this season.
— Giants are 9-18 ATS in last 26 games as a home dog (2-0 TY).
— Last three games, Big Blue converted 12-37 (32.4%) on third down.
— Giants went over their team total six of last eight games.
— Under is 8-3-1 in Giants opponents’ team totals this year.
— Under is 8-3-1 in Giant games this season.
— Last three weeks, Giants gave up 160-189-165 rushing yards.
— Last three games, Barkley was held to 124 yards on 46 carries.
— Home side won last five meetings.
— Eagles lost 13-7/27-17 in last two visits here.
— Overall, Philly is 14-3 in last 17 games against the Giants.
— Four of last five series games stayed under.
Browns (5-7) @ Bengals (8-4)
— QB Watson was 12-22/131 in his Browns’ debut last week.
— Browns didn’t score an offensive TD (2 on defense, 1 special teams)
— Cleveland won last two games after a 1-6 skid (5-3 ATS last eight).
— Browns are 5-2 giving up 24 or less points, 0-5 giving up more than 24.
— Browns ran ball for 189-174 yards in last two games.
— Browns are 0-4 when they run for less than 171 yards.
— Cleveland outgained 10 of its 12 opponents, but they’re 5-7.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
— Browns are 21-28 ATS as a road underdog (1-2 TY).
— Browns turned ball over 16 times in last eight games (minus-7)
— Watson is 30-27 as an NFL starter, making playoffs twice with Houston.
— Cincinnati won eight of its last ten games (9-1 ATS).
— They won/covered their last four games.
— Three of Bengals’ four losses are by 3-3-2 points, all on last-second FG’s.
— Bengals are 1-4 scoring 20 or less points, 7-0 if they score more.
— Bengals scored 27+ points in five of last seven games.
— Cincy converted 57 of last 111 (50%) third down plays.
— Bengals are 6-4 ATS in last ten AFC North home games.
— Cincy scored 22 TD’s on their last 56 drives.
— Bengals went over their team total in 7 of last 10 games.
— Cincy is 5-1 ATS this season coming off a win.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 23-18-1 as an NFL starter.
— Browns (+3.5) hammered Cincinnati 32-13 at home in Week 8.
— Cleveland won last six series games.
— Browns are 2-5 ATS in last seven trips to Cincinnati.
— Over is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Vikings (10-2) @ Lions (5-7)
— Vikings won nine of their last ten games SU.
— Minnesota is 7-1-1 ATS in last nine games.
— Despite being 10-2, Vikings outscored foes by 10 points (289-279).
— Vikings converted 17 of last 33 third down plays.
— Last three games, Vikings were outgained 1,244-828.
— Minnesota is 6-1-1 ATS this season, coming off a win.
— Last four games, Minnesota allowed 27 plays of 20+ yards (Vikings had 17).
— Cousins is 70-63-2 as an NFL starter.
— Vikings have 13 takeaways in last seven games (+7)
— Minnesota’s two losses this year: 40-3 vs Dallas, 24-7 at Eagles.
— Vikings are 5-7 ATS in last dozen NFC North road games
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Detroit won four of its last five games (5-0 ATS).
— Lions scored 31-31-25-40 points last four games.
— Detroit scored 19 TD’s on its last 51 drives.
— Last five games, Lions are +7 in turnovers (10-3)
— Last four games, Detroit converted 35-71 (49.3%) third down plays.
— Last four games, Detroit foes converted 37-75 (49.3%) on 3rd down.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 8-20-1 SU, 19-9-1 ATS.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 2-1 ATS as favorite (favored in 3 of 29 games).
— Detroit is 3-4 SU at home TY, losing by 3-3-4-3 points.
— Over is 4-2 in Detroit’s last six games.
— Lions are 6-1 ATS last seven NFC North home games.
— Vikings (-7) beat Lions 28-24 back in Week 3.
— Minnesota won eight of last nine series games.
— Vikings won four of last five visits to Detroit (3-2 ATS)
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.
Texans (1-10-1) @ Cowboys (9-3)
— Texans lost 10 of their last 11 games SU
— Texans are 2-8 ATS in last ten games, 0-4 in last four.
— Last two weeks, Houston trailed 20-0/30-0/7-5 at halftime.
— Texans are 0-7 SU/1-6 ATS since their bye week, giving up 27.7 ppg.
— Last five games, Houston is 43-138 (31.2%) on 3rd down.
— Last week, Texans gave up two defensive TD’s and a punt return TD.
— Texans are 10-21-1 ATS last 32 games coming off a loss.
— Five of their last six games stayed under the total.
— Texans averaged less than 6.0 yards/pass attempt in 9 of 12 games.
— Last three games, Houston was held to 148-210-283 yards..
— Kyle Allen is 7-12 as NFL starter.
— Texans are 2-10-1 ATS in last 13 games vs NFC opponents.
— Cowboys won nine of their last eleven games (8-3 ATS).
— Last five games, Dallas scored 28 TD’s on 62 drives.
— Last seven games, Dallas ran ball for 170.6 yards/game.
— Dallas gained 405+ TY in each of their last five games.
— Last nine games, Cowboys outscored foes 163-51 in second half.
— Dallas is 6-1 SU at home TY, 4-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Cowboys are 15-11-1 ATS in last 27 games vs AFC teams.
— Dallas is +12 in turnovers in its wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Cowboys are 11-6 ATS in last 17 games coming off a win.
— Cowboys won three of last four series games.
— Texans lost 20-17/34-6 in their two visits to Dallas.
— All five series games stayed under the total.
Chiefs (9-3) @ Broncos (3-9)
— Chiefs won seven of last nine games (5-4 ATS).
— Chiefs were held under their team total in four of last five games.
— Chiefs are 14-13-1 ATS last 28 games as a road favorite (3-3 TY).
— Last five weeks, Chiefs converted 60-100 (60%) third down plays.
— Last three weeks, opponents converted 20-38 (52.6%) third down plays.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five games.
— Last five games, Chiefs are minus-4 in turnovers (4-8)
— Chiefs have 64 plays of 20+ yards; opponents have 40.
— Chiefs are 20-8 ATS in last 28 AFC West road games.
— KC is 7-4 ATS last 11 games coming off a loss.
— Mahomes is 68-18 as an NFL starter.
— Denver lost four in row, eight of their last nine games (2-6-1 ATS)
— Broncos scored 16 or fewer points in 10 of 12 games.
— Last nine games, Denver was outscored 89-43 in second half.
— Last six games, Broncos have eight TD’s on 92 drives.
— Broncos allowed 9-10-17 points in their three wins.
— Last four games, Denver got into red zone on only 4 of 44 drives.
— Last six games, Broncos are 38-153 (24.8%) on third down.
— Denver is 9-5-1 ATS last 15 games as a home underdog.
— 11 of 12 Denver games stayed under the total.
— Denver lost field position last six games, by 6.5 yards/game.
— Broncos are 4-3 ATS in last seven AFC West home games.
— Kansas City won last 12 series games (9-3 ATS)
— Chiefs are 7-1 ATS in last eight visits to Denver.
— Under is 6-2 in last eight meetings.
Buccaneers (6-6) @ 49ers (8-4)
— Short week, long travel after Bucs’ dramatic win Monday nite.
— Buccaneers won three of their last four games SU.
— Buccaneers are 1-8-1 ATS in their last ten games.
— Tampa Bay is 6-1 allowing less than 20 points, 0-5 giving up 20+.
— Tampa Bay is a road underdog for first time since 2020.
— Tampa lost last three true road games, scoring 18-3-17 points.
— Last three games, Bucs converted 31-66 (47.0%) on third down.
— Tampa Bay is 8-7 ATS last 15 games coming off a win.
— 10 of 12 Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
— Bucs were held under 100 yards rushing in 10 of last 11 games.
— Tampa Bay lost field position in eight of last ten games.
— Rookie QB Purdy (25-37/210 passing LW) makes his first NFL start.
— San Francisco won its last five games (4-1 ATS)
— 49ers outscored last five opponents 73-7 in second half.
— 49ers are 6-0 when they score 24+ points, 2-4 when they don’t.
— Last four games, 49ers converted 41-78 (52.3%) on third down.
— In four post-bye games, 49ers ran ball for 133.3 yards/game.
— 49ers are 5-1 ATS as a home favorite this season.
— Over is 4-2 in their last six games.
— 49ers are +12 in turnovers in their wins, minus-8 in losses.
— 49ers are 12-9 ATS in last 21 games coming off a win.
— Last four games, 49ers allowed four TD’s on 41 drives.
— Teams split last six meetings.
— Buccaneers are 2-4 ATS in last six visits to Santa Clara.
— Under is 7-4 in last 11 series games.
Panthers (4-8) @ Seahawks (7-5)
— Panthers didn’t allow a TD in first half of their last three games.
— QB Darnold won his first 2022 start; he is 18-32 as an NFL starter.
— Panthers are 5-2 ATS since they changed coaches.
— Carolina is 3-3 SU at home TY, 2-0
— Panthers are 4-7 ATS last 11 games as a road underdog.
— Carolina has converted only 39-144 (27.1%) third down plays.
— Carolina is 10-8 ATS in last 18 games coming off a win.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 19-42 SU.
— Eight of last 11 Panther games stayed under the total.
— In Weeks 9-10, Carolina was outscored 49-0 in first half.
— Three games since then, Carolina outscored foes 23-9 in first half.
— Seahawks are 0-3 ATS last three games, running for 64.7 yards/game.
— Those three games were all decided by 5 or less points, or in OT.
— Seattle is 6-1 when it allows less than 27 points.
— Five of Seattle’s last seven opponents stayed under their team total.
— Last three games, Seattle is 9-28 (32.1%) on 3rd down conversions.
— Last three games, opponents are 22-41 (53.7%) on 3rd down.
— Last three games, Seattle gave up 161-283-171 rushing yards.
— Seahawks are 3-5 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.
— Geno Smith is 20-25 as an NFL starter.
— Seattle is 8-14 ATS in last 22 games coming off a win.
— Three of their last four games went over the total.
— Seahawks won seven of last eight series games.
— Panthers are 2-3 SU/3-2 ATS in last five visits to Seattle.
— Last four meetings went over the total.
Dolphins (8-4) @ Chargers (6-6)
— Dolphins won five of last six games, scoring 30.4 ppg in last five.
— Miami is 5-0 this season in games decided by 6 or fewer points.
— Dolphins are 7-0 if they score more than 17 points.
— Miami is 3-3 SU on road this year, winning by 4-4-3 points.
— Dolphins were 0-7 on 3rd down LW, after going 23-46 previous 4 games.
— Last two weeks, Dolphins were outscored 31-7 in second half.
— Miami is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-10 in losses.
— Miami ran ball only 8 times for 33 yards LW, turning ball over four times
— Four of last five Dolphin games went over the total.
— Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in last nine games coming off a loss.
— Tagovailoa is 21-10 as an NFL starter.
— Chargers lost four of last six games SU (wins by 1-3 points).
— Last four games, Bolts were outgained 1,642-1,215
— Chargers are 5-1 giving up less than 27 points, 1-5 if they give up 27+.
— Last three games, Chargers converted 19-43 on third down (44.2%)
— Chargers have been outscored 158-93 in second half.
— Bolts ran ball for 91 or fewer yards in 10 of 12 games.
— Last six games, Chargers allowed 178.3 rushing yards/game.
— Chargers are +7 in turnovers in their wins, minus-3 in losses.
— Chargers are 7-4-2 ATS last 13 games vs NFC teams.
— Over is 6-4 in Bolts’ last ten games.
— Herbert is 21-23 as an NFL starter
— Miami won five of last seven meetings with the Chargers.
— Dolphins are 5-3 ATS in last eight road series games.
— Under is 12-2 in last 14 meetings.
— This is the Dolphins’ first visit to SoFi Stadium.
Monday’s game
Patriots (6-6) @ Cardinals (4-8)
— New England lost its last two games (6-3 ATS last nine).
— Patriots’ last five games: 5 TD’s, 18 FGA’s, 20 3/outs on 55 drives.
— Last two weeks, Patriots threw 75 passes, ran ball 27 times.
— New England is 6-0 giving up 17 or less points, 0-6 giving up 20+.
— Patriots are 1-4 SU when game goes over the total, 5-2 if it stays under.
— Last three games, Patriots converted 10-37 third down plays.
— NE is +7 in turnovers in its wins, minus-4 in losses.
— Patriots are 4-1 ATS this season coming off a loss.
— Mac Jones is 14-13 as an NFC starter.
— Four of last five New England games stayed under the total.
— Patriots are 12-9 ATS last 21 games vs NFC teams.
— Cardinals lost six of their last eight games SU.
— Arizona was outscored in 2nd half in each of its last 7 games.
— Cardinals lost field position battle in seven of last eight games.
— Arizona gave up 20+ 2nd half points in four of last six games.
— Arizona is 1-8 SU when it scores less than 29 points.
— Cardinals trailed at halftime in nine of their 12 games.
— Last three games, Arizona converted 15-29 third down plays (51.7%).
— Arizona is 7-6 ATS last 13 games as a home underdog.
— Cardinals outscored opponents 63-33 in last 2:00 of each half.
— Last six Arizona games went over the total.
— Cardinals are 6-9 ATS in their last 15 post-bye games.
— New England won four of last five series games.
— Patriots won 23-21/23-12 in last two trips to Arizona.
— Under is 3-1-1 in last five meetings.
