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Udog

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See reply 17 for more....

NFL Week 1 Rewind
Daniel Dobish

NFL WEEK 1 RESULTS

WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 10-5-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 8-8
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 6-9-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 10-6
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 5-11

NFL SEASON RESULTS

WAGER (Favorites-Underdogs)
Straight Up (SU): 10-5-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 8-8
WAGER (Home-Away)
Straight Up (SU): 6-9-1
Against the Spread (ATS): 10-6
WAGER (Totals O/U)
Over-Under: 5-11

BIGGEST UNDERDOGS TO CASH

Giants (+7.5, ML +290) 21 @ Titans 20
Steelers (+7.5, ML +265) 23 @ Bengals 20 (OT)
Seahawks (+7, ML +260) 17 vs. Broncos 16
Bears (+6.5, ML +230) 19 vs. 49ers 10

BIGGEST FAVORITES TO CASH

Chiefs (-6.5) 44 @ Cardinals 21
Ravens (-6.5) 24 @ Jets 9
Chargers (-4.5) 24 vs. Raiders 19
Dolphins (-3.5) 20 vs. Patriots 7

BIGGEST ROAD FAVORITES TO CASH

Ravens (-6.5) 24 @ Jets 9

BIGGEST BAD BEAT OF THE WEEK

The bad beats in the NFL aren't nearly as dirty as college football, but we still have them.

If you were holding a Raiders +4.5 ticket, you were sucking wind all day long. The Raiders were down 17-3 at halftime, and just couldn't get their new-look offense moving. However, RB Brandon Bolden scored on an 18-yard reception from QB Derek Carr, and the Raiders were in business. I wonder what the astronomical odds of Bolden being the first Vegas TD scorer were, by the way.

The Chargers restored their 14-point lead with a scoring connection from QB Justin Herbert to TE Gerald Everett, making it 24-10 midway through the third. The Raiders wouldn't go away, though. A field goal late in the third made it 24-13.

Both teams saw the defenses take over in the fourth quarter, but the Raiders weren't done. With 4:32 to go in regulation, Carr hit WR Davante Adams for a 3-yard TD, making it 24-19. The Raiders elected to go for two, and much to the dismay of those holding +4.5 tickets, they misfired. The final score was 24-19, and Raiders side bettors missed by a half-point. Ouch.

BAD BEAT HONORABLE MENTIONS

N.Y. GIANTS at TENNESSEE (-5.5, Total - 44)

This was a sickening finish for both Titans side bettors laying -5.5, while individuals holding OVER tickets couldn't believe their fortunes, either.

The Titans fired out to a 13-0 lead at halftime, and this looked like the same ol' G-Men despite the change to head coach Brian Daboll. But the third quarter is when the Giants came alive, and, in particular, RB Saquon Barkley resurfaced.

After years of nagging injuries, Barkley is back, and he looked awfully dangerous. The Giants saw Barkley score early in the third quarter, making it 13-6. The G-Men then struck with a big play, as QB Daniel Jones hooked up with WR Sterling Shepard for a 65-yard score, knotting up the game at 13-13.

The Titans struck late in the third, as QB Ryan Tannehill found RB Dontrell Hilliard for his second touchdown catch of the day, making it 20-13.

Jones attempted to hit Barkley in the left corner of the end zone in the fourth quarter, but he was picked off. Daboll came over to Jones on the bench, and bawled out the quarterback. It apparently lit a fire under the signal caller, as the next time the Giants got the ball back, Jones led the team down the field for a touchdown with just 66 seconds left in regulation. Instead of playing for overtime, Daboll elected to go for two, and Jones hit Barkley for the go-ahead conversion, making it 21-20.

The hopes of the Titans side bettors went up in smoke. But OVER bettors still had a chance, as the Titans drove down the field. However, PK Randy Bullock misfired on a game-winning field goal at the buzzer, crushing OVER bettors, and anyone who might have decided to foolishly bet the money line.

PITTSBURGH at CINCINNATI (Total - 44.5)

This game was wild. The Steelers took the lead on a pick-six by FS Minkah Fitzpatrick just 2:17 into the game, one of four interceptions and five total turnovers by QB Joe Burrow. It got worse.

The defending AFC champs were down 17-6 at halftime. The scoring slowed to a crawl in the second half, and we had a 48-yard field goal from PK Chris Boswell early in the fourth quarter to make it 20-14 in favor of the visitors.

The Bengals nearly pulled it off, however, driving the field, with Burrow hitting WR Ja'Marr Chase with a 6-yard touchdown with just :02 left in regulation. The Bengals simply needed an extra point to win. And PK Evan McPherson's PAT was blocked.

Can you imagine the sinking feeling of being on the right side of the UNDER all day long, only to have overtime spoil your day? Well, luckily Boswell and McPherson each misfired on field goal attempts in OT. It went all the way down to the wire before Boswell finally cashed in, walking it off for a 23-20 win in OT. UNDER bettors hung on, and OVER bettors, nearly gifted a winner, suffered a bad beat, although it certainly wasn't a textbook bad beat.

JACKSONVILLE (+2.5, Total - 43.5) at WASHINGTON

The Commanders went up 14-3 at halftime, and things were looking good for the newly named home side. But the Jaguars fought back, scoring a touchdown and field goal in the third quarter to cut the lead to 14-12.

It got better for the Jags, as they scored another field goal and touchdown, turning things from a 14-3 deficit, to a 22-14 lead for the visitors. However, Washington quickly answered, as WR Terry McLaurin posted a 49-yard touchdown to cut the lead to 22-20, although it missed on a 2-point attempt.

UNDER bettors were hanging in there, but rookie WR Jamar Dotson hauled in a 24-yard touchdown from QB Carson Wentz, making it 28-22, handing Jaguars side bettors, Jaguars money line bettors and UNDER bettors a bad beat with one flick of the wrist.
 

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Udog

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NFL

Week 2


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Trend Report
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LA Chargers @ Kansas City
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Chargers's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Chargers's last 5 games on the road
Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Kansas City's last 9 games
Kansas City is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home

Tampa Bay @ New Orleans
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
New Orleans
New Orleans is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
New Orleans is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

Carolina @ NY Giants
Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Giants's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of NY Giants's last 12 games

NY Jets @ Cleveland
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
NY Jets is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cleveland's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games

New England @ Pittsburgh
New England
New England is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-0-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games when playing New England

Miami @ Baltimore
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games on the road
Miami is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Baltimore is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami

Indianapolis @ Jacksonville
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games on the road
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

Washington @ Detroit
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Washington's last 11 games when playing Detroit
Washington is 17-7 SU in its last 24 games when playing Detroit
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Washington

Seattle @ San Francisco
Seattle
Seattle is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games when playing San Francisco
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Francisco's last 9 games
San Francisco is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Atlanta @ LA Rams
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing LA Rams
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Rams's last 8 games at home
LA Rams is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games

Arizona @ Las Vegas
Arizona
Arizona is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 6 games
Las Vegas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

Houston @ Denver
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games on the road
Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Denver's last 12 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games when playing Houston

Cincinnati @ Dallas
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
Dallas
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

Chicago @ Green Bay
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago

Tennessee @ Buffalo
Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Tennessee's last 10 games on the road
Buffalo
Buffalo is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Buffalo is 14-3 SU in its last 17 games at home

Minnesota @ Philadelphia
Minnesota
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 11 games on the road
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing at home against Minnesota

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Udog

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Armadillo's Write-up

Week 2


Thursday game
Chargers (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)

— Short week, long travel for Chargers this week.
— Chargers were +3 in turnovers, beat Raiders 24-19 (-3) last week.
— Last three years, Bolts are 3-6 ATS in AFC West road games.
— Since 2015, Chargers are 21-12-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Bolts are 4-1-1 ATS in last six road openers.
— Under is 3-0 in their last three road openers.
— Last three years, Chargers are 7-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
–Star WR Allen (hamstring) unlikely to play here.

— Chiefs scored six TD’s on 11 drives, won 44-21 at Arizona LW.
— Chiefs outgained Arizona 488-282; only 8 of their 66 plays were on 3rd down.
— Kansas City won/covered four of last five home openers.
— Last two years, Chiefs are 7-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Since 2016, Kansas City is 11-7 ATS in AFC West home games.
— Since 2017, Chiefs are 30-23-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Over is 5-0-2 in their last seven home openers.

— Chiefs won 13 of last 16 series games, but Chargers won their last two visits to Arrowhead.
— Chargers are 5-2 ATS in last seven visits to Kansas City.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight meetings.
 

Cnotes53

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NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS

09/15/22....................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/12/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%................-11.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%................- 0.50

TOTALS..................17-17-0...............50.00%................-8.50

************************************************** *****************

BEST BETS

09/15/22...................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/12/22...................0-2-0..................00.00%...............-11.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%................- 0.50

TOTALS...............14-10.0.................58.33%...............+ 15.00
 

Cnotes53

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SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 18
TB at NO01:00 PMTB -2.5
U 44.0
+500 +500
NYJ at CLE01:00 PMCLE -6.5
U 38.5
+500 +500
NE at PIT01:00 PMPIT +3.0
U 40.0
+500 +500
IND at JAC01:00 PMJAC +3.0
U 43.5
+500 +500
MIA at BAL01:00 PMBAL -3.0
U 44.0
+500 +500
WAS at DET01:00 PMDET +1.0
O 48.5
+500 +500
CAR at NYG01:00 PMCAR -1.0
O 44.0
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

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SEA at SF04:05 PMSF -8.5
U 40.0
+500 +500
ATL at LAR04:05 PMATL +10.5
O 46.5
+500 +500
ARI at LV04:25 PMLV -5.5
O 51.5
+500 +500
CIN at DAL04:25 PMDAL +7.5
U 42.0
+500 +500
HOU at DEN04:25 PMHOU +10.5
U 46.0
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

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NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS

09/17/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50

TOTALS................32-23-1................58.18%.................+33.50

************************************************** *****************

BEST BETS

09/17/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50

TOTALS..............24-12.0..................66.00%...............+ 54.00
 

Udog

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Armadillo Sports

Monday’s 6-pack
NFL leaders in receiving yards
284— Tyreek Hill, Miami
240— Jaylen Waddle, Miami
236— Cooper Kupp, Rams
195— Christian Kirk, Jaguars
194— Courtland Sutton, Broncos
184— Justin Jefferson, Vikings (1 game)

****************************

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Dolphins 42, Ravens 38:
— Ravens led 35-14 after the third quarter.
— Miami scored 28 points in 4th quarter for first time ever.
— Dolphins won game on 7-yard TD pass with 0:14 left.
— Tagovailoa threw for 469 yards and six TD’s.
— Hill caught 11 balls for 190 yards, Waddle 11 for 171.

— Ravens ran opening kick of game back for a TD.
— Jackson ran 79 yards for a TD, threw a 75-yard TD pass.
— Both teams had six plays each of 20+ yards.
— Ravens in first half: 31 plays, 295 yards, 16 first downs, 21 points.
— Ravens in second half: 24 plays, 199 yards, 7 first downs, 10 points.

Jets 31, Browns 30:
— Jets scored two TD’s in last 1:22 to pull off an amazing comeback.
— Jets recovered an onside kick that set up the winning TD.
— According to ESPN Stats, teams had won 2,229 consecutive games when leading by 13+ points in the final 2:00.
— 37-year old Flacco threw for 307 yards and four TD’s.

— Cleveland scored 57 points in first two games, but this is a horrendous loss.
— Browns ran for 184 yards here, 401 yards in two games.
— Jets won seven of last nine series games.
— Jets were 8-15 on third down, Cleveland 8-12.
— Since 2005, Browns are 5-13 ATS in home openers
— Since 1999, Browns are 0-9 ATS as a favorite in home openers.

Lions 36, Commanders 27:
— Washington in 1st half: 26 plays, 39 yards, 2 first downs, no points.
— Washington in 2nd half: 45 plays, 340 yards, 19 first downs, 27 points.
— Wentz threw for 337 yards, much of it in garbage time.
— Detroit won six of last seven series games.
— Commanders scored 55 points in their first two games (1-1).

— Detroit led this game 22-0 at halftime.
— St Brown caught nine passes for 116 yards, two TD’s.
— Lions have scored 9 TD’s on their first 23 drives this year.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 4-15-1 SU, 13-6 ATS.
— Over is 18-7-1 in their last 26 home games.

Jaguars 24, Colts 0
— Colts lost last eight visits to Jacksonville; they were favored in 6 of 8.
— Indy has been outscored 27-3 in first half this year.
— Colts were 2-10 on 3rd down, had only nine first downs.
— Ryan threw three INT’s, went scoreless in two trips to red zone.
— In two games, they’ve scored 17 points in seven trips to red zone.

— Jaguars outgained Colts 331-218.
— Jacksonville scored two TD’s, FG on their first four drives.
— Home side won last eight series games.
— Under is 4-1 in last five series games.

Buccaneers 20, Saints 10:
— Game was 3-3 after three quarters.
— Tampa Bay has allowed one TD on 24 drives in two games.
— Tampa Bay has scored two TD’s on 21 drives in two games.
— Bucs scored on a pick-6 with 4:11 left.
— Tampa Bay won field position by 12 yards.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 4-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.

— New Orleans turned ball over five times (minus-4)
— QB Winston was sacked six times, in addition to the turnovers.
— According to Jay Glazer on TV, Winston is playing with four fractures in his back.
— Saints are 1-7 ATS in last eight home openers.
— New Orleans had only one play of 20+ yards.

Giants 19, Panthers 16:
— Carolina lost first two games, by 2-3 points.
— Panthers gained 261-275 yards in their first two games.
— Carolina converted only 2-12 third down plays in this game.
— Panthers fumbled away opening kick, then fumbled again on first series.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 15-36 SU.

— Giants won first two games, by 1-3 points.
— Giants scored only 6 first half points in two games.
— Big Blue has converted only 8-28 third down plays.
— Giants are 2-0 for first time since 2016.
— Under is 9-0 in their last nine home openers.

Patriots (0-1) @ Steelers (1-0)
— Patriots outgained Pittsburgh, 376-243.
— New England converted 9-17 third down plays.
— New England scored 7-17 points in its first two games.
— Last 6+ years, under is 33-16-1 in their road games.
— New England won six of last seven series games.

— Steelers gained 267-243 yards in first two games.
— Pitt had a 16-play drive that took 7:07, but gained only 48 yards and a FG.
— Steelers averaged only 4.2 yards per pass attempt.
— Steelers are 0-5 ATS in last five games as home underdogs.

Rams 31, Falcons 27:
— Falcons first drive: 13 plays, 8:06 off clock, missed FG.
— Atlanta blocked punt for TD with 4:57 left to get within 31-25.
— Ramsey picked off Mariota in red zone with 1:07 left to preserve the win.
— Falcons converted 3-10 on third down, Rams 6-10.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 9-6 ATS as a road underdog.

— Rams scored TD’s on four of their first five drives.
— They also turned ball over three times, had punt blocked for TD.
— Kupp caught 11 balls for 108 yards, despite no targets in first quarter.
— Rams outgained Atlanta, 337-261.
— Buffalo was 9-10 on 3rd down LW; Falcons were only 3-10.

Seahawks (1-0) @ 49ers (0-1)
— Seattle’s only TD was an 86-yard return of a blocked field goal.
— Seahawks were outgained 373-216, running for 36 yards.
— In two games, Seattle ran 37 second half plays for 110 yards.
— Geno Smith is 14-22 as an NFL starter.
— Seahawks had only one play of 20+ yards.

— QB Lance broke his ankle early, is out for the year.
— Garoppolo threw for 154 yards and a TD.
— 49ers won field position by ten yards.
— In first two games, 49ers ran for 176-139 yards
— Before this game, 49ers had lost 15 of last 17 series games.

Cowboys 20, Bengals 17:
— Bengals’ only TD of day tied game 17-17 with 3:45 left.
— Cincinnati had only one play of 20+ yards.
— Burrow got sacked six times (13 times in two games)
— Dallas outgained the Bengals, 337-254.

— Maher kicked a 50-yard FG at the gun for the walk-off win.
— Maher also kicked a 54-yard FG at end of the first half.
— Dallas was 3-10 on third down, Bengals 6-17.
— Last 4+ years, Dallas is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— QB Rush is now 2-0 as an NFL starter, winning 20-16 at Minnesota LY.

Broncos 16, Texans 9:
— Game was 6-6 at halftime.
— Houston has been outgained 867-533 in two games.
— Texans are 0-1-1 SU, but covered both games.
— Since 2016, under is 22-15-3 in their road games.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-10-1 as an NFL starter

— Denver’s only TD was the game-winner with 12:37 left.
— Wilson completed only 6-17 passes in first half.
— Denver converted 3-12 on third down, Houston 2-13.
— Broncos outgained first two foes, 783-487.
— Since 2017, Denver is 6-13-1 ATS as a home favorite.

Cardinals 29, Raiders 23 OT
— Arizona tied game on a Murray run/2-point pass with 0:00 left.
— Arizona won game on a 59-yard fumble return in OT
— Cardinals in first half: 19 plays, 71 yards, no points.
— Cardinals in 2nd half/OT: 59 plays, 325 yards, 23 points.
— Fumble return TD was the longest one in OT in NFL history.

— Raiders in first half: 40 plays, 236 yards, 20 points.
— Raiders in 2nd half/OT: 24 plays, 115 yards, 3 points.
— Las Vegas converted 6-11 on third down, Arizona 3-13.
— Last five years, Raiders are 7-13-2 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Derek Carr is 57-73 as an NFL starter.

Packers 27, Bears 10:
— Bears drove 71 yards for a TD on their first drive.
— Rest of game: 35 plays, 142 yards, 7 first downs, 3 points.
— Last 3+ years, Chicago is 7-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— How does a team lose 27-10 and throw only 11 passes?
— Bears were outgained 745-432 in their first two games.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 3-9 as an NFL starter.

— Rodgers is now 24-5 in his career against Chicago.
— Bears are 1-6 ATS in last six visits to Lambeau Field.
— Green Bay scored 3 TD’s and FG on first five drives.
— Last 3+ years, Packers are 17-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Green Bay is 10-0 ATS off a SU loss.
 

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NFL Week 3 Bet Now, Bet Later: Mahomes Keeps Cookin' in Road Matchup vs. Colts
Jason Logan

Kansas City Chiefs (-6) at Indianapolis Colts: Bet Now

Has there been a more disappointing team in the opening two weeks of the 2022 season than the Colts?

Matt Ryan was supposed to be the X-factor in Indy, pushing this team over the top. But instead, the Colts come into Week 3 winless after a half-assed tie vs. Houston and a full-on ass whoopin’ at the hands of the Jaguars. Injuries may have played a hand in that Week 2 shutout, but this offense is a mess and the defense just made Trevor Lawrence look like… well, Patrick Mahomes.

The real Mahomes and the Chiefs looked amazing in Week 1 and then confirmed their place in the AFC pecking order with a huge win over the L.A. Chargers last Thursday, giving Kansas City a mini bye to rest up and prep for the Colts. And as impressive as the offense has been for KC, this defense has very much stepped up to the challenge with great pass pressure up front. Ryan has been sacked seven times already in 2022.

If you like Kansas City, grab it below a touchdown.


San Francisco 49ers at Denver Broncos (-1): Bet Later

Speaking of disappointing starts, the Broncos avoided a huge stumble by hanging on against Houston at home on Sunday. Denver fell short as 10-point chalk and had already soured bettors who jumped on it in last Monday’s upset loss in Seattle.

Books pegged Denver as a 2.5-point home favorite for this Week 3 non-conference clash with San Francisco, with new head coach Nathaniel Hackett in well over his head opposite Kyle Shanahan. The 49ers got right with a win over Seattle on Sunday after an upset loss of its own at Chicago in Week 1. The Niners did, however, lose starting QB Trey Lance for the season and now turn to “old reliable” Jimmy Garoppolo.

Denver’s biggest issue is finishing drives. The Broncos have outgained their first two opponents 783-487 in yardage but have only 32 total points to show for it, owning a disgraceful 0-for-6 count inside the red zone.

If you hold out hope for Russell Wilson to right the ship and believe in this Broncos defense, pump the breaks and wait for the market to wash its hands of Denver. This -2.5 is already down to -2 and -1 at select sportsbooks as of Sunday night. It wouldn’t shock me to see this flirt with pick’em, especially if Denver WR Jerry Jeudy misses time with a shoulder injury.


Cincinnati Bengals at New York Jets (Over 43): Bet Now

The Bengals are mired in a nasty Super Bowl hangover at 0-2 out the gate. But Cincinnati has faced two very sound defensive opponents in Pittsburgh and Dallas — both of which rank among the best pass rushes in the NFL. And with that, Joe Burrow has been blasted for 13 total sacks. When Burrow remains upright and unbothered, he’s moved the chains for late-game rallies.

The Bengals’ high-priced offensive line has work to do but at least it faces a less aggressive defensive attack in Week 3. The Jets have three total sacks through two games and their stop unit has allowed 54 total points, including 30 to the Browns in a wild come-from-behind win in Week 2. New York’s defense is 31st in EPA allowed per dropback with rival QBs owning a success rate of 53%.

Let’s not poo-poo what Gang Green has done with the football, though. New York managed to put up 380 yards in the opening loss to Baltimore and finished with 402 yards and some points (31 to be exact) against Cleveland. The Jets were fourth in EPA per play in Week 2 (with primetime games to go) and sneakily sit No. 15 in this metric after two weeks — ahead of heavyweights like Tampa and the L.A. Rams.

Grab the Over on this total now as it is starting to climb at sharp books Sunday night.


New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (Over 40.5): Bet Later

Woof. When the Falcons are the best offense in the NFC South, you know something is up.

There are a number of reasons to jump on the Under in this divisional matchup in Week 3, which is driving the total down Sunday night. But if the market overreacts too much, we could see value with the Over later in the week.

The Saints defense did one hell of a job on Tom Brady and Tampa Bay on Sunday, but five turnovers and six sacks allowed from the offense stunted any progress under promoted OC Peter Carmichael. New Orleans actually outgained the Bucs and put up 300-plus yards but with RB Alvin Kamara out of action and Jameis Winston nursing a busted back, NOLA finished 4-for-13 on third downs against a very aggressive Tampa stop unit.

The Panthers are a sound defense but definitely not in the same vein as the Buccaneers. New Orleans boasts some very good skill players and Winston — healthy or not — and this passing game is the best offense Carolina will have seen so far after taking on Jacoby Brissett and Daniel Jones.

These rivals met in Week 17 last January with Sam Darnold and Taysom Hill under center and that total opened at 39.5 points before closing 37.5. Baker Mayfield is a slight upgrade for the Panthers’ passing game and Winston is capable of so much more.

Given what we saw in Week 2, this total could keep shrinking. If it gets anywhere near 39, give the Over a good long look as I think NOLA’s offense has much more to show this season.
 

Cnotes53

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NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS

09/19/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%.................-11.00
09/18/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50

TOTALS................32-25-1................56.14%.................+22.50

************************************************** *****************

BEST BETS

09/19/22...................0-2-0.................00.00%...............-11.00
09/18/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50

TOTALS..............24-14.0..................63.15%...............+ 43.00
 
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