Cnotes' NFL 2021-2022 football season previews-news-notes-picks-rumors!

Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
30,167
29
48
NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS

09/26/22...................1-1-0.................50.00%...................-0.50
09/25/22...................8-10-2...............45.00%.................-15.00
09/22/22....................2-0-0...............100.00%................+10.00
09/19/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%.................-11.00
09/18/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50

TOTALS................43-36-3................54.43%.................+17.00

************************************************** *****************

BEST BETS

09/26/22...................1-1-0..................50.00%...............- 0.50
09/25/22...................7-5-0..................58.33%..............+ 7.50
09/22/22...................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/19/22...................0-2-0.................00.00%...............-11.00
09/18/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50

TOTALS..............34-20-0..................62.96%...............+ 60.00
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
Armadillo Sports

Cowboys 23, Giants 16:
— Dallas ran ball for 176 yards, won field position by 15 yards.
— Cooper Rush is now 3-0 as an NFL starter.
— Dallas has only four TD’s on 31 drives this season.
— Cowboys are 12-4 ATS in last 16 road openers.
— Dallas won 10 of last 11 games against the Giants.

— Jones threw for 196 yards, ran for 79 more (14-26 as NFL starter)
— Giants have converted only 11-39 on third down.
— Giants’ only TD was a 36-yard run by Barkley.
— Big Blue ran ball for 508 yards in first three games.
— Giants are 4-9 ATS in last 13 NFC East home games.
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
WEEK 4

sjm5gdH.png
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
NFL Week 4 Bet Now, Bet Later: Brady vs Mahomes Might Lack Actual Firepower
Jason Logan

Poof! And just like that, we've reached Week 4 of the NFL season.

September comes to a close and we welcome October football with bookies starting to pump up their power ratings with more data. That means getting the best number is even more important when handicapping the NFL Week 4 odds.

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: Bet Now
Arizona Cardinals (+1) at Carolina Panthers: Bet Later
Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 47.5): Bet Now
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Over 43): Bet Later

Jacksonville Jaguars (+7.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: Bet Now

Damn, this is a sexy game.

Not only do we get two of the most improved teams in 2022 butting heads, but we get also a great narrative with former Philly coach Doug Pederson returning to the Linc in Week 4. Jacksonville crashed SoFi Stadium and roughed up the Chargers for a 38-10 blowout win, but still opened as big as +7.5 for this game at respected online shops.

This spread has settled in at Eagles -7 at most books but places like PointsBet are dealing -6.5 shortly after odds hit the market. If you’re buying into Jacksonville’s current form, grab all the points you can.

Philadelphia is flying at 3-0 and crushed former QB Carson Wentz in Washington on Sunday. That said, those three wins have come against DC, Minnesota, and Detroit — not as sexy as slapping around the Colts and Chargers (the Jags did lose to the Commanders in Week 1, however).

On top of that, Jacksonville is wet dream fodder for football analytics nerds, ranked out No. 7 in offense EPA per play and No. 3 in EPA allowed per play — a tick higher than Philadelphia.


Arizona Cardinals (+1) at Carolina Panthers: Bet Later

The Cardinals could easily be 0-3 entering this trip to Carolina. But that was to be expected considering the quality of competition this team has faced out of the gate. Arizona has taken on Kansas City, Las Vegas, and the L.A. Rams — a murderer’s row of quality QBs. Next up: Baker Mayfield?

You can flip that logic for the 1-2 Panthers, who are coming off a win over New Orleans in Week 3. Carolina’s defense has kept the team competitive, especially on Sunday with a first-quarter scoop and score that turned out the be the difference. But the Panthers have faced the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Daniel Jones, and jacked-back Jameis Winston.

Arizona has injuries on both sides of the ball but Kyler Murray is by far the best quarterback Carolina has had to face this season. Kliff Kingsbury is hoping to have WR Rondale Moore back for Week 4 after he’s sat with the hamstring injury and Hollywood Brown is stepping up big for this passing game.

If you’re not convinced about Carolina, wait it out. And I mean wait. The Panthers have been a popular pick on Sundays, with last-minute money showing up in all three games and moving Carolina late. This spread is already up to Cardinals +1.5 and even +2 at some shops. Hold out for more if you’ve got cash for the Cardinals.


Kansas City Chiefs at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Under 47.5): Bet Now

The Under seems like an automatic play in Bucs games now. Tom Brady and this offense are really struggling, and I’m not sure getting back some of those receivers is an instant fix. The Buccaneers' battered offensive line has given up six sacks and isn’t giving Brady enough time for deeper plays to develop.

Kansas City comes into Week 4 having lost a little shine following a dead-armed loss to Indianapolis on Sunday. The Chiefs' scoring attack made a big splash with 44 points in Week 1 but has looked earthbound ever since, culminating in just 17 points against the previously disappointing Colts on Sunday.

The Kansas City defense, however, is playing well above expectations. The Chiefs checked the Colts to only 259 yards and sacked QB Matt Ryan five times. Kansas City has wrangled some top-tier passers to start 2022, owning the 10th rated EPA per dropback.

Tampa Bay’s stop unit continues to hold the team together and did a great job limiting Aaron Rodgers and the Packers attack for the final three quarters of Sunday’s two-point loss. The Bucs are No. 1 in EPA allowed per play and have allowed a grand total of just 27 points through three games.

This total had a look-ahead line of 53 points before the start of the season. It officially opened at 47.5 and started dropping at a number of books on Sunday night. Plunder this Sunday Night Football Under now.


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (Over 43): Bet Later

The Colts avoided DEFCON 1 levels of panic with a big home win over Kansas City in Week 3, but the victory has a rotten core as the Indy offense truly struggled again a week removed from a shutout loss to Jacksonville.

The Colts put up 20 points on an embarrassing 3.75 yards per play. They only came away with a win thanks to a generous amount of turnovers, miscues, and a muffed punt from KC. That’s a big reason why this total hit the board at 44 points and why it quickly slid down to 43 as of Sunday night.

But on the other side of the field is Tennessee. The Titans have given up a ton of yardage through three games, but the final scores haven’t always shown that ineptitude. Tennessee currently sits 30th in EPA allowed per play, well off the mark for Indianapolis’ last two defensive opponents.

As for the Titans’ offense, it’s starting to gain traction. Derrick Henry had a good day in Week 3, amassing 143 yards of offense and Ryan Tannehill ranked out No. 5 in EPA per dropback among passers on Sunday afternoon (+0.344).

These AFC South rivals conjured closing totals of 51 and 47 points in their two meetings last year and while they may not be as electric to start 2022, there’s a high ceiling for offense inside the fast track of Lucas Oil Stadium.

If you’re not soured on the Over, kick back and wait to see if early Under play keeps walking this one down before getting involved.
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
NFL

Week 4


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Miami @ Cincinnati
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games when playing on the road against Cincinnati
Miami is 11-1 SU in its last 12 games
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against Miami

Minnesota @ New Orleans
Minnesota
Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Minnesota's last 12 games on the road
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games at home
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota

Cleveland @ Atlanta
Cleveland
Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Cleveland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games

Buffalo @ Baltimore
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Buffalo is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games
Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Buffalo
Baltimore is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Buffalo

Washington @ Dallas
Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing on the road against Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Washington's last 13 games when playing Dallas
Dallas
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

LA Chargers @ Houston
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Chargers's last 9 games
LA Chargers is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Houston
Houston
Houston is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Houston's last 12 games at home

Seattle @ Detroit
Seattle
Seattle is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Seattle's last 14 games on the road
Detroit
Detroit is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Detroit's last 5 games

Tennessee @ Indianapolis
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Tennessee's last 11 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Tennessee

Chicago @ NY Giants
Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing NY Giants
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of NY Giants's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games when playing Chicago

Jacksonville @ Philadelphia
Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 7 games
Philadelphia
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

NY Jets @ Pittsburgh
NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Jets's last 7 games on the road
Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games at home

Arizona @ Carolina
Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games when playing Carolina
Arizona is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games on the road
Carolina
Carolina is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Arizona
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Arizona

Denver @ Las Vegas
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games on the road
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Las Vegas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver

New England @ Green Bay
New England
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New England's last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 8 games on the road
Green Bay
Green Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Green Bay's last 6 games when playing New England

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay
Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games on the road
Kansas City is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas City
Tampa Bay is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Kansas City

LA Rams @ San Francisco
LA Rams
LA Rams is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
LA Rams is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 5 games
San Francisco is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing LA Rams


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
Armadillo Sports

Wednesday’s Den: How NFL teams do on 75+ yard drives…….

Points per possession on drives that start 75+ yards from goal line:
Offense
3.22— Bills
2.81— Browns
2.76— Jaguars
2.50— Ravens
2.26— Falcons
2.25— Dolphins
2.13— Eagles
2.00— Chiefs
1.80— Vikings
1.70— Saints
1.63— Bears, Raiders
1.62— Lions
1.59— Panthers
1.50— Packers, Titans
1.48— Cowboys
1.44— Seahawks
1.41— Patriots, Commanders
1.35— Cardinals, Broncos
1.30— Buccaneers
1.29— Bengals
1.22— 49ers
1.18— Jets
1.14— Texams
1.12— Steelers
1.10— Chargers
1.05— Colts
1.04— Giants
0.69— Rams

Rams gave up blocked punt for TD vs Atlanta, which hurts their number.

Defense
0.63— 49ers
0.91— Broncos, Bucs
0.92— Bengals
0.94— Steelers
0.96— Packers
1.09— Jaguars
1.18— Raiders
1.22— Ravens
1.28— Colts
1.29— Vikings
1.30— Eagles
1.35— Saints
1.42— Giants
1.44— Texans
1.59— Bills
1.61— Bears
1.78— Rams
1.83— Panthers
1.86— Dolphins, Commanders
1.89— Chiefs
1.95— Cowboys
2.00— Patriots
2.28— Chargers
2.33— Lions
2.39— Browns, Titans
2.41— Jets
2.59— Cardinals
2.74— Seahawks
2.93— Falcons
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 4

Thursday game
Dolphins (3-0) @ Bengals (1-2)

— Miami won/covered first three games (42-38/21-19 last two)
— Dolphins scored nine TD’s on their last 18 drives.
— Last 3+ years, Dolphins are 11-7 ATS as a road underdog.
— Miami was outgained 497-212 in LW’s upset of Buffalo,
— Dolphins scored TD’s on 7 of 8 red zone drives this year.
— Last 3+ years, Dolphins are 17-8 ATS coming off a win.
— 3rd-year QB Tagovailoa is 16-8 as an NFL starter.

— Bengals outscored opponents 35-12 in second half this year.
— Cincy allowed only three TD’s on 35 drives this season.
— Opponents have converted only 14-43 third down plays.
— Since 2017, Bengals are 7-12 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Cincy is 5-8-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Bengals’ first three games stayed under the total.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 16-16-1 as an NFL starter.

— Home side won last five series games.
— Dolphins lost 27-17/22-7 in last two visits to Cincinnati.
— Miami won five of last seven meetings.
— Under is 4-1-1 in last six series games.
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 4


Sunday’s games
Vikings (2-1) vs Saints (1-2) (@ London)

— Vikings scored two TD’s in last 7:50 of LW’s 28-24 win over Lions.
— Last two games, Minnesota has only two plays of 20+ yards.
— Last 2+ years, Minnesota is 6-12 ATS as a favorite.
— Minnesota has converted only 10-34 third down plays.
— Since 2018, Vikings are 12-20-2 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Since 2018, Vikings are 13-16 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— All three Viking games stayed under the total.
— Cousins is 62-62-2 as an NFL starter.

— Saints lost last two games 20-10/22-14, scoring 3 TD’s on 26 drives.
— New Orleans turned ball over 8 times last two games (minus-7)
— New Orleans has been outscored 29-10 in first half.
— Saints are 13-6-1 ATS in last 20 games as an underdog.
— Saints are 13-39 on 3rd down so far this season.
— Since 2019, New Orleans is 10-5-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Saints are 3-5 ATS in last eight games with spread of 3 or less points.
— Winston is 34-46 as an NFL starter, 6-5 with the Saints.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Saints (-7) won last meeting 52-33 two years ago.
— These teams both play in domes; unusual that they’ll play each other outdoors.

Browns (2-1) @ Falcons (1-2)
— Cleveland scored 28.3 ppg in its 2-1 start
— Browns ran for 217-184-171 yards in first three games.
— Cleveland converted 22-46 third down plays in two games.
— Browns have scored nine TD’s on 30 drives.
— Since 2013, Cleveland is 3-9 ATS as a road favorite.
— Browns are 8-2 ATS in last ten games vs NFC teams.
— Browns are 13-18 ATS in last 31 games coming off a win.
— All three Cleveland games went over the total.
— Brissett is 16-24 as an NFL starter, for four different teams.

— Falcons scored 26-27-27 points in its 1-2 start.
— Atlanta scored seven TD’s, tried eight FG’s on first 27 drives.
— Falcons have converted 12-30 third down plays.
— Last two years, Falcons are 3-7 ATS coming off a win.
— Atlanta is 6-3 ATS LY in last nine games with spread of 3 or less.
— Falcons gave up 27 ppg in their first three games.
— All three Atlanta games went over the total.
— Mariota is 31-35 as an NFL starter.

— Underdogs won/covered last five meetings.
— Browns won 26-24/17-13 in last two trips to Atlanta.
— Last five series games stayed under the total.

Bills (2-1) @ Ravens (2-1)
— Buffalo outgained first three opponents, 1,324-642.
— Bills outscored first three opponents 50-7 in second half.
— Buffalo converted 25 of first 41 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Buffalo is 9-6 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Buffalo is 10-4 ATS coming off a loss.
— Bills are 9-1 ATS in last 10 games with spread of 3 or less.
— All three Buffalo games stayed under the total.
— Josh Allen is 44-25 as an NFL starter.
— Since start of ’21, Bills are 0-7 SU in games decided by 8 or less points.

— Ravens scored 38-37 points in their last two games.
— Ravens have scored 12 TD’s on 31 drives this season.
— Baltimore allowed 9.0/8.6 yards/pass attempt in last two games.
— Baltimore outscored first three opponents 52-23 in first half
— Ravens are 3-6 ATS in last nine games coming off a win.
— Since 2016, Baltimore is 7-1 ATS as a home underdog.
— Last three years, Ravens are 9-0 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jackson is 40-16 as an NFL starter.

— Ravens won three of last four series games.
— Average total in last four meetings. 32.8.
— Bills are 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Baltimore.
— Four of last five series games stayed under total.

Commanders (1-2) @ Cowboys (2-1)
— Washington gave up 27.3 ppg in its 1-2 start.
— Commanders have been outrushed 401-245 in three games.
— Washington lost its only road game, 36-27 (+2.5) at Detroit.
— Commanders are 2-6 ATS in last eight games as a road dog.
— Washington lost field position by 11-12-9 yards in Weeks 1-3.
— Last 3+ years, Commanders are 11-20-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Since 2019, Commanders are 5-4 ATS in NFC East road games.
— QB Wentz is 45-43-1 as an NFL starter.

— QB Rush is 3-0 as starter, leading 4th quarter GW drive all three games.
— Dallas allowed only three TD’s on 29 drives this season.
— Last two weeks, Cowboys allowed 3.9/4.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Since 2017, Dallas is 14-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Cowboys have converted only 11-38 third down plays.
— Last five years, Dallas is 12-3 ATS in NFC East home games.
— Last 4+ years, Cowboys are 11-15 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Under is 2-0-1 in their games this season.

— Cowboys won 10 of last 13 series games.
— Washington is 1-4 ATS in last five visits to Dallas.
— Over is 9-3 in last 12 series games.

Seahawks (1-2) @ Lions (1-2)
— Seattle got waxed 27-7 LW; their only TD was a blocked FG.
— Since halftime of Week 1, Seattle has been outscored 30-7.
— In last three halves, Seattle has run 65 plays for 263 yards, no points.
— In two games, Seahawks have been outgained 806-469.
— Last two years, Seahawks are 7-6 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Last two years, Seattle is 10-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Geno Smith is 14-22 as an NFL starter.

— Detroit gave up 28-27-28 points in its 1-2 start.
— Lions have run ball for 511 yards in three games.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 4-15-1 SU, 14-6 ATS.
— Lion opponents have scored 12 TD’s on 33 drives.
— Lions are 9-5 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Over is 4-1 in Detroit’s last five games.
— This is 2nd time in last 26 games Detroit has been favored (1-0 ATS)

— Seattle won six of last seven series games.
— Seahawks (-8) waxed Detroit 51-29 LY, running ball for 265 yards.
— Seattle is 1-2 ATS in last three trips to the Motor City.

Chargers (1-2) @ Texans (0-2-1)
— Chargers have injury issues on both sides of ball.
— Chargers have been outscored 58-24 in second half.
— Bolts ran ball for 76-75-26 yards in first three games.
— Last three years, Chargers are 4-7-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chargers don’t have takeaway in last two games (minus-3 TO’s)
— QB Herbert is playing with fractured rib cartilage.
— Last 3+ years, Chargers are 10-17-1 ATS coming off a loss.

— Texans are 0-2-1 SU, but haven’t trailed at halftime yet.
— Texans have been outscored 37-19 in second half.
— Houston was outrushed 607-249 in first three games.
— Texans are 5-3-1 ATS in last nine games as a home underdog.
— Texans have 4 TD’s on 33 drives this season (13 3/outs)
— Houston is converted only 10-40 third down plays.
— Texans have scored 27 points on seven red zone drives.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-11-1 as an NFL starter.

— Texans won three of last four series games (41-29 LY).
— Chargers covered three of last four visits to Houston.
— Over is 4-2-1 in last seven series games.

Titans (1-2) @ Colts (1-1-1)
— Tennessee gave up 28 ppg in its 1-2 start.
— Titans have been outscored 57-7 in second half.
— Opponents have converted only 8-35 third down plays.
— Opponents have also gained 401 yards/game.
— Tennessee has been outgained 1,204-907 in three games.
— Since 2019, Titans are 6-3 ATS in AFC South road games
— Tennessee is 6-4 ATS in last 10 games coming off a win.
— Tannehill is 75-64 as an NFL starter.

— Colts have been outscored 61-16 in quarters 1-3 this season.
— Indy has only four TD’s on 33 drives this season.
— Home team is 3-0 ATS in their games so far.
— Colts scored only 34 points in ten trips to red zone.
— All three of their games stayed under the total.
— Last five years, Colts are 15-12-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Indy is 17-15-1 ATS in last 33 games coming off a win.
— Ryan is Colts’ 6th different starting QB the last six years.

— Road team won five of last six series games.
— Titans won/covered four of last five visits to Indianapolis.
— Over is 6-3 in last nine series games.

Bears (2-1) @ Giants (2-1)
— Chicago ran ball for 180-281 yards in last two games.
— Bears have been outscored 45-20 in first half this season.
— Bears have outscored foes 32-12 in second half.
— Chicago is 23-45 passing in three games, with 235 net passing yards.
— Bears have converted only 12-35 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Chicago is 7-12 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last 3+ years, Chicago is 9-16-1 ATS coming off a win.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 4-9 as an NFL starter.

— Giants have been outscored 25-9 in first half this season.
— Giants outscored opponents 47-34 in second half.
— Big Blue has converted only 11-39 on third down.
— Giants ran ball for 508 yards in first three games.
— Last five years, Giants are 29-27 ATS coming off a loss.
— Under is 2-0-1 in Giant games this season.
— Daniel Jones is 14-26 as an NFL starter.
— Last two weeks, Giants averaged 4.4/4.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Giants are favored for just 4th time in last 21 home games.

— Bears are 3-0 vs Giants last three years, holding Big Blue to 10 ppg.
— Home side won last seven series games.
— Chicago is 3-2 ATS last five road series games, losing last three SU.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
Jaguars (2-1) @ Eagles (3-0)
— Jaguars won last two games, 24-0/38-10.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 12-18-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— While HC in Philly, Pederson was 10-13 ATS as a road dog.
— Last four years, Jaguars are 5-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Jacksonville opponents have only 24 points in 7 red zone drives.
— Last two weeks, Jaguars converted 14-30 third down plays.
— Jaguars outscored foes 48-17 in second half.
— 2nd-year QB Lawrence is 5-15 as an NFL starter.

— Philly won its first three games, scoring 38-24-24 points. .
— Eagles have run ball for 451 yards, converted 22-35 third down plays.
— Eagles led first three games 24-14/24-7/24-0 at halftime.
— Philly didn’t score in second half of their last two games.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 4-0 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Philly is 7-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Last four years, Eagles are 6-11 ATS vs AFC teams.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 12-11 as an NFL starter.

— Doug Pederson coached Eagles from 2016-20, winning a Super Bowl.
— Eagles won last three series games; their last loss was in 2006.
— Jaguars lost 24-18/34-17 in last two visits to Philadelphia.
— Under is 3-1 in last four meetings.

Jets (1-2) @ Steelers (1-2)
— 2nd-year QB Wilson makes his first ’22 start here.
— Jets won their only road game, 31-30 in Cleveland.
— Jets had 295-309-252 passing yards, in their first three games.
— Last 2+ years, Jets are 12-22 ATS as an underdog.
— Jets are 5-11 ATS in last 16 games as a road underdog.
— Last 4+ years, Jets are 18-28 ATS coming off a loss.
— Opponents have converted 20-38 third down plays.
— Wilson is 3-10 as an NFL starter.

— Steelers scored 14-17 points in losing last two games.
— Pittsburgh has only four TD’s on 31 drives this season.
— Steelers were +5 in turnovers in their only win, in OT over Bengals.
— Opponents have converted 23-49 third down plays.
— Steelers are 1-5 ATS in last six games as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Steelers are 8-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— Trubisky is 30-25 as an NFL starter.

— Teams split last eight meetings— last one was in 2019.
— Jets are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Pittsburgh.
— Last five series games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (1-2) @ Panthers (1-2)
— Cardinals have been outscored 56-13 in first half this year.
— Arizona has been outscored 43-7 in first half this season.
— Arizona gained 365 yards on 81 plays LW, but didn’t score a TD in 20-12 loss.
— Cardinals have converted only 12-43 third down plays.
— Arizona is 4-8 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Arizona is 6-8 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Kyler Murray is 23-26-1 as an NFL starter.

— Carolina got first win LW, despite being outgained 426-293.
— Panthers’ two losses were by total of five points.
— Panthers were held under 300 yards (261-275-293) in all three games.
— Last three years, Carolina is 3-9 ATS as a home favorite.
— Carolina has converted only 10-37 third down plays.
— Last five years, Carolina is 15-17 ATS in games coming off a win.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 16-36 SU.
— Panthers are 3-8 ATS in last 11 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Mayfield is 31-33 as an NFL starter.

— Carolina won four in row, 7 of last 9 series games.
— Cardinals are 1-4-1 ATS in last six visits to Charlotte.
— Over is 5-1 in last six meetings.

Patriots (1-2) @ Packers (2-1)
— QB Jones is out here with a high ankle sprain.
— 18-19 SU since Brady left; 8-10 ATS on road.
— Last 2+ years, Patriots are 4-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— New England is minus-4 in turnovers (1-5) this season.
— Last 2+ years, Patriots are 9-8 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 2+ years, Patriots are 4-5 ATS vs NFC teams.
— Opponents have converted 19-40 third down plays.
— Backup QB Hoyer is in his 13th year; he is 16-23 as an NFL starter. His last win came in 2016, for the Bears (0-14 since then)

— Packers won last two games, giving up 2 TD’s on 19 drives.
— Green Bay has scored 38 first half points, only 10 in second half.
— Green Bay opponents have converted only 7-31 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Packers are 15-8 ATS as a home favorite.
— Green Bay is 9-4-1 ATS in last 14 games coming off a win.
— Last two games, Green Bay won field position by 9-12 yards.
— Last four years, Packers are 10-6-1 ATS vs AFC teams.
— Rodgers is 152-77-1 as an NFL starter.

— New England won three of last five series games.
— Patriots split last two visits to Lambeau Field.
— Under is 4-1 in last five meetings.

Broncos (2-1) @ Raiders (0-3)
— Broncos is 2-1 in first three games, despite scoring 16-16-11 points.
— Broncos are 2-1 and they haven’t led at halftime yet (0-2-1).
— Denver was +3 in turnovers last week, struggled to an 11-10 win.
— Last two opponents converted 3-23 third down plays.
— Denver has scored 18 points in seven red zone drives.
— Denver is 12-9-1 ATS in last 14 games as a road dog.
— Last two years, Broncos are 5-8 ATS coming off a win.
— Since 2019, Denver is 2-6-1 ATS in AFC West road games.
— All three Denver games stayed under the total.
— QB Wilson is 115-61-1 as an NFL starter.

— Raiders lost first three games, by 5-6-2 points.
— Raiders ran ball for 64-80-96 yards in first three games.
— Las Vegas is 5-12 ATS in last 17 games coming off a loss.
— Since 2019, Raiders are 3-7 ATS as a home favorite.
— Las Vegas lost only home game in OT to Arizona; they led 20-0 at half.
— Las Vegas is 8-4 ATS in last 12 AFC West home games.
— Raiders have gone under their team total all three games.
— Derek Carr is 57-74 as an NFL starter.

— Raiders won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
— Broncos are 0-6 ATS in last six road series games.
— Under is 8-2 in last ten meetings.

Chiefs (2-1) @ Buccaneers (2-1)
— Chiefs scored 44-27 points in Weeks 1-2, were held to 17 at Indy LW.
— Chiefs scored only 30 points on last seven red zone drives.
— Last 3+ years, Kansas City is 12-11-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Chiefs had kicking issues LW, missing PAT and 34-yard FG.
— Kansas City opponents went under team total in all three games.
— Since 2019, Chiefs are 6-4 ATS coming off a loss.
— Chiefs are 17-6-1 ATS in last 24 games where spread was 3 or less.
— Mahomes is 61-16 as an NFL starter.

— Last two games, Tampa Bay was outscored 17-3 in first half.
— Bucs have allowed only three TD’s on 35 drives.
— Bucs have scored only three TD’s on 32 drives.
— Tampa Bay has scored 16 points on five red zone drives.
— Tampa Bay is 9-2-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home dog.
— With Brady at QB, Bucs are 4-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less points.
— All three Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
— Brady is 309-87 as a NFL starter, 31-11 in Tampa.

— Buccaneers won five of last six series games.
— Bucs won last meeting 31-9 in Super Bowl two years ago, in Tampa.
— Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in last four visits to Tampa Bay.

Monday’s game
Rams (2-1) @ 49ers (1-2)

— Rams won last two games, outscoring foes 34-9 in first half.
— Rams have been outscored 51-17 in second half of games.
— Rams have converted 15-31 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, LA is 9-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.
— Rams are 10-5-1 in last 16 NFC West road games.
— Rams are 12-7 ATS in last 19 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Stafford is 18-6 as QB of the Rams.

— 49ers are 1-2 so far, despite outgaining foes 971-681.
— 49ers outscored first three opponents 34-3 in first half.
— 49ers have been outscored 34-13 in second half.
— SF have scored only 30 points in nine red zone drives.
— Last 5+ years, 49ers are 6-9-1 ATS in NFC West home games.
— All three 49ers games stayed under the total.
— 49ers are 4-8 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or less.
— QB Garoppolo is 37-17 as an NFL starter.

— 49ers won six of last seven series games; loss was in LY’s NFC title game.
— Underdogs covered last seven meetings.
— Rams are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Santa Clara.
— Over is 5-1 in last six series games.
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
— Thru three weeks, underdogs are 27-19-2 ATS in the NFL; under is 29-18-1.

Home underdogs are 14-9-1 ATS.
 

Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
30,167
29
48
NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
09/29/22...................1-0-0................100.00%.................+5.00
09/26/22...................1-1-0.................50.00%...................-0.50
09/25/22...................8-10-2...............45.00%.................-15.00
09/22/22....................2-0-0...............100.00%................+10.00
09/19/22....................0-2-0.................00.00%.................-11.00
09/18/22..................17-8-1.................67.31%................+41.00
09/11/22..................14-14-0...............50.00%..................- 7.00
09/08/22....................1-1-0.................50.00%..................- 0.50

TOTALS................44-36-3................55.00%.................+22.00

************************************************** *****************

BEST BETS
09/29/22...................1-0-0.................100.00%..............+5.00
09/26/22...................1-1-0..................50.00%...............- 0.50
09/25/22...................7-5-0..................58.33%..............+ 7.50
09/22/22...................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
09/19/22...................0-2-0.................00.00%...............-11.00
09/18/22.................12-4-0.................75.00%...............+38.00
09/11/22.................11-7-0..................61.11%..............+ 16.50
09/08/22..................1-1-0..................50.00%.................- 0.50

TOTALS..............35-20-0..................63.63%...............+ 65.00
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
Bengals 27, Dolphins 15
— Cincy allowed only four TD’s on 46 drives this season.
— Bengals outscored opponents 48-15 in second half this year.
— Cincy converted 8-15 on third down, Miami 2-10.
— McPherson made a 57-yard FG to put Bengals up, 20-15.
— Burrow averaged 9.2 yards/pass attempt.

— Miami QB Tagovailoa suffered head/neck injuries in first half.
— Backup QB Bridgewater threw for 193 yards and a TD.
— Miami in first half: 34 plays, 235 yards, TD, 2-3 on FG’s.
— Miami in second half: 30 plays, 181 yards, one FG.
— Cincinnati outscored Dolphins 13-0 in 4th quarter.
 

Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
30,167
29
48
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 2
MIN at NO MIN -2.5
O 43.0
+500 +500
SEA at DET01:00 PMDET -4.0
O 48.0
+500 +500
CLE at ATL01:00 PMATL +1.0
O 47.5
+500 +500
NYJ at PIT01:00 PMNYJ +3.5
U 41.0
+500 +500
JAC at PHI01:00 PMJAC +6.5
O 45.5
+500 +500
BUF at BAL01:00 PMBAL +3.0
O 52.0
+500 +500
CHI at NYG01:00 PMNYG -3.0
O 39.5
+500 +500
WAS at DAL01:00 PMDAL -3.5
U 41.5
+500 +500
LAC at HOU01:00 PMHOU +5.5
O 44.5
+500 +500
TEN at IND01:00 PMIND -3.5
U 43.0
+500 +500
ARI at CAR04:05 PMCAR -1.5
U 44.0
+500 +500
NE at GB04:25 PMGB -9.5
U 40.0
+500 +500
DEN at LV04:25 PMLV -2.5
O 45.5
+500 +500
KC at TB08:20 PMTB -1.0
O 45.0
+500 +500
 

Cnotes53

Registered
Forum Member
Nov 5, 2017
30,167
29
48
OCTOBER'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

10/02/22................15-12-1..............55.36%.................+9.00


Totals....................15-12-1..............55.36%.................+9.00

*****************************************

10/02/22.................8-5-0.................61.53%...............+12.50

Totals.....................8-5-0..................61.53%...............+12.50


**********************************************************

SEPT.'S NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
TOTALS................44-36-3................55.00%.................+22.00
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
TOTALS..............35-20-0..................63.63%...............+ 65.00
 

Udog

Registered
Forum Member
Sep 10, 2018
17,481
18
38
Armadillo Sports

Monday’s 6-pack
Interesting Week 5 NFL spreads
Colts @ Denver (-3)
Giants vs Green Bay (-7.5) (@ London)
Steelers @ Buffalo (-14)
Chargers (-3) @ Cleveland
Texans @ Jacksonville (-7)
Bears @ Minnesota (-7)


Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday……

Vikings 28, Saints 25
— Saints missed 61-yard FG off left upright at the gun.
— Saints had tied game with 60-yard FG with 1:51 left.
— New Orleans had 10 penalties for 102 yards, Vikings 5 for 35.
— Saints lost their last three games; they trailed 26-10 in 4th quarter of opener.
— Vikings had 11 drives; scored two TD’s, kicked 5 FG’s, missed a PAT.
— Minnesota scored six of last seven times they had ball.
— Minnesota had 14-yard advantage in field position.
— Jefferson caught 10 passes for 147 yards.

Jets 24, Steelers 20
— Jets scored TD’s with 7:31/0:16 left for the comeback win.
— Jets scored two TD’s in last 1:22 in their other road win, at Cleveland.
— Wilson threw for 252 yards in his first start of the season.
— Opponents have converted 26-50 third down plays.
— Rookie QB Pickett was 10-13/120 with 3 INT’s in his NFL debut.
— Jets outgained Pittsburgh 348-297; they were +2 in turnovers.
— Boswell made a 59-yard field goal at end of first half.
— Steelers are 1-6 ATS in last seven games as a home favorite.

Bills 23, Ravens 20
— Ravens led 20-3 with 2:00 left in first half.
— Buffalo kicked 21-yard FG at the gun for the win.
— Two leading rushers in game were the two QB’s (73, 70 yards)
— Ravens averaged only 4.3 yards/pass play.
— Bills outscored first four opponents 63-7 in second half.
— Ravens’ first 4 drives: 33 plays, 135 yards, 20 points.
— Ravens’ last 5 drives: 32 plays, 134 yards, zero points.
— Buffalo’s first 5 drives: 20 plays, 135 yards, zero points.
— Buffalo’s last 5 drives: 45 plays, 273 yards, 23 points.
— Since 2016, Baltimore is 8-1 ATS as a home underdog.

Eagles 29, Jaguars 21
— Jaguars led 14-0 after the first quarter.
— Jacksonville scored on a pick-6 3:45 into game.
— Jaguars turned ball over 5 times, were minus-4 in turnovers.
— Since 2018, Jaguars are 12-19-1 ATS as a road underdog.
— Philly scored three TD’s in 8:47 span of second quarter.
— Eagles won field position by 13 yards.
— Sanders ran for 134 yards, two TD’s.
— Philly won its first four games, scoring 38-24-24-29 points.
— Under Sirianni, Eagles are 4-0 ATS as a home favorite.

Falcons 23, Browns 20
— Falcons kicked a 45-yard FG with 2:28 left for the win.
— Atlanta completed only 7-19 passes the whole game.
— Browns outgained Atlanta, 403-333.
— Only nine of Falcons’ 55 plays came on third down (3-9).
— Atlanta is 7-3 ATS in last ten games with spread of 3 or less.
— Both teams had six plays of 20+ yards.
— Browns ran for 217-184-171-177 yards in first four games.
— Since 2013, Cleveland is 3-10 ATS as a road favorite.
— Brissett is 16-25 as an NFL starter, for four different teams.

Cowboys 25, Commanders 10
— Washington in 2nd half: 44 plays, 131 plays, 3 punts, 3 points.
— Commanders ran for 142 yards, were minus-2 in turnovers.
— Commanders are 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a road dog.
— Last 3+ years, Commanders are 11-21-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Washington is 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Dallas.
— Dallas allowed only four TD’s on 41 drives this season.
— Last three weeks, Cowboys allowed 3.9/4.0/3.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Lamb caught six passes for 97 yards and a TD.
— QB Rush is 4-0 as starter, first Dallas QB to win first four starts.
— Last five years, Dallas is 13-3 ATS in NFC East home games.

Seahawks 48, Lions 45
— Seattle had eight drives: five TD’s, 2-3 on field goals.
— Seahawks scored on pick-6 on first play of third quarter.
— Total yardage: Seattle 555, Detroit 520
— Seahawks ran ball for 235 yards, converted 9-12 on 3rd down.
— Last 2+ years, Seattle is 11-5 ATS coming off a loss.
— Detroit gave up 28-27-28-48 points in its 1-3 start.
— Goff threw for 378 yards, four TD’s, also threw the pick-6.
— Lion opponents have scored 17 TD’s on 41 drives.
— Under Campbell, Lions are 4-16-1 SU, 14-7 ATS.
— Over is 5-1 in Detroit’s last six games.

Chargers 34, Texans 24
— Chargers in 1st half: 37 plays, 293 yards, 27 points.
— Ekeler had 19 touches for 109 yards, three TD’s.
— Bolts have run ball for 64.5 yards/game this season.
— Chargers have been outscored 75-31 in second half this year.
— Texans’ first four series: 19 plays, 60 yards, no points.
— Chargers led 27-7 at halftime.
— Houston has converted only 14-52 third down plays.
— Pierce ran ball 14 times for 131 yards; he is only Texan who carried the ball in this game.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-12-1 as an NFL starter.

Titans 24, Colts 17
— Titans in first half: 33 plays, 225 yards, 16 first downs, 24 points.
— Titans in second half: 20 plays, 28 yards, 3 first downs, no points.
— Titans had 10-yard edge in field position; they were +3 in turnovers.
— Tennessee has been outgained by 419 yards in four games.
— Since 2019, Titans are 7-3 ATS in AFC South road games
— Taylor ran ball 20 times for only 42 yards.
— Colts’ first four drives: 25 plays, 76 yards, 7 first downs, 3 points.
— Colts have been outscored 85-33 in quarters 1-3 this season.
— Indy outgained the Titans, 365-243.
— All four Colt games stayed under the total.

Giants 20, Bears 12
— Bears drove 65-77 yards on first two drives, but kicked FG’s both times.
— Chicago is 34-67 passing in three games, with 390 net passing yards.
— Bears have been outscored 59-29 in first half this season.
— Last 3+ years, Chicago is 7-13 ATS as a road underdog.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 4-10 as an NFL starter.
— Under is 3-0-1 in Giant games this season.
— Barkley ran ball 31 times for 146 yards.
— Last three weeks, Giants averaged 4.4/4.0/4.2 yards/pass attempt.
— QB Jones hurt his ankle, returned when backup QB Taylor had to be tested for a concussion.
— Home side won last eight series games.

Cardinals 26, Panthers 16
— Arizona in 1st half: 35 plays, 132 yards, 3 points.
— Arizona in 2nd half: 37 plays, 202 yards, 23 points.
— Cardinals outrushed Carolina, 132-40.
— Cardinals have been outscored 66-16 in first half this year.
— Kyler Murray is 24-26-1 as an NFL starter.
— Carolina had 11 first downs, was only 2-10 on third down.
— Arizona won field position by 11 yards.
— Carolina has converted only 12-47 third down plays.
— Panthers are 3-9 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Panthers were held under 300 yards (261-275-293-220) in all four games.

Packers 34, Patriots 27 OT
— Backup QB Hoyer (concussion) went out early (5-6/37 passing)
— Rookie 3rd-string QB Zappe was 10-15/99 in his NFL debut.
— Patriots’ offense in first half: 36 plays, 121 yards, 3 points.
— Opponents have converted 25-54 third down plays.
— 18-20 SU since Brady left; 9-10 ATS on road.
— Green Bay drove 77 yards on 12 plays, kicked GW FG at 0:00 of OT.
— Packers won last three games, giving up 4 TD’s on 30 drives.
— Rodgers threw a pick-6 with 0:13 left in 1st half; NE led, 10-7.
— Packers’ first three drives in 2nd half: 27 plays, 215 yards, 17 points.
— Green Bay ran ball for 199 yards, outgained Patriots 443-271.

Raiders 32, Broncos 23
— Las Vegas ran a fumble back 68 yards for TD to go up 16-10.
— Jacobs ran 28 times for 144 yards, two TD’s.
— Las Vegas ran for 212 yards, scored 2 TD’s, 4 FG’s on 10 drives.
— Las Vegas is 9-4 ATS in last 13 AFC West home games.
— Carlson kicked four FG’s, has now made 39 in a row.
— Raiders converted 7-14 on 3rd down, Denver 3-11
— Last 2+ years, Broncos are 5-9 ATS coming off a win.
— Raiders won last six series games (5-1 ATS)
— Broncos are 2-2; they haven’t led at halftime yet (0-3-1).
— Since 2019, Denver is 2-7-1 ATS in AFC West road games.

Chiefs 41, Buccaneers 31
— Chiefs in first half: 37 plays, 242 yards, 16 first downs, 28 points.
— Kansas City converted 12-17 third down plays.
— Chiefs ran ball for 189 yards; they had TD drives of 21-20 yards.
— Since 2019, Chiefs are 7-4 ATS coming off a loss.
— Chiefs are 18-6-1 ATS in last 25 games where spread was 3 or less.
— Buccaneers fumbled away the opening kickoff.
— Brady threw for 385 yards, three TD’s.
— Problem is, they ran ball only six times for three yards. Total.
— Last three games, Tampa Bay was outscored 45-20 in first half.
— Bucs lost first two home games, 14-12/41-31 to Packers/Chiefs.
 
Last edited:
Bet on MyBookie
Top