Cnotes' NFL 2021-2022 football season previews-news-notes-picks-rumors!

[Udog]

Dolphins (3-1) @ Jets (2-2)
— Miami won/covered three of first four games.
— Dolphins are 10-5 ATS in last 15 games as a favorite.
— Dolphins stayed under their team total in 3 of 4 games.
— Since 2016, Dolphins are 4-4 ATS as a road favorite.
— Last three weeks, Miami gave up 448.3 yards/game.
— Last two games, opponents were 19-33 on third down.
— Last three weeks, Dolphins scored 61 points on 10 red zone drives.
— Last three years, Dolphins are 13-10 ATS coming off a loss.
— Backup QB Bridgewater is 33-31 as an NFL starter.

— In both their wins, Jets ended game on 14-0 run in last 8:00.
— Road side won/covered all four of their games.
— Thru four weeks, Jets are averaging 364 passing yards/game.
— Under Saleh, Jets are 3-8 ATS as a home underdog.
— Jets are 2-10 ATS in last dozen AFC East home games.
— Since 2018, Jets are 7-10-1 ATS coming off a win.
— Opponents have converted 26-50 third down plays.
— 2nd-year QB Wilson is 4-10 as an NFL starter.

— Miami won five in row, 10 of last 12 games against the Jets.
— Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in last six visits here.
— Under is 7-2 in last nine series games.

Falcons (2-2) @ Buccaneers (2-2)
— Falcons’ four games were decided by total of 12 points.
— Atlanta is only NFL team that is 4-0 ATS.
— Falcons outscored last three foes 47-26 in second half.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 4-7 ATS coming off a win.
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 10-6 ATS as a road underdog.
— Last three opponents converted 20-41 third down plays.
— Three of four Atlanta games went over the total.
— Mariota is 32-35 as an NFL starter.

— Last three games, Tampa Bay was outscored 45-20 in first half.
— Bucs have outscored opponents 50-20 in second half.
— Last two opponents converted 18-32 third down plays.
— Tampa Bay is 10-5-1 ATS in last 16 games as a home favorite.
— With Brady, Tampa Bay is 4-2 ATS in NFC South home games.
— Tampa Bay gave up 41 points LW, after giving up 3-10-14 in Weeks 1-3.
— Three of four Tampa Bay games stayed under the total.
— Brady is 309-88 as a NFL starter, 31-12 in Tampa.

— Buccaneers won last five series games (4-1 ATS)
— Falcons are 2-5 ATS in last seven visits to Tampa.
— Under is 8-1 in last nine series games.

Titans (2-2) @ Commanders (1-3)
— Tennessee won last two games, scoring 24-24 points.
— Tennessee has outscored opponents 68-37 in first half.
— Titans have been outscored 64-7 in second half.
— Opponents have converted only 15-48 third down plays.
— Tennessee has been outgained by 104.8 yds/game in four games.
— Since 2018, Titans are 10-7 ATS vs NFC opponents.
— Tennessee is 7-4 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
— Three of four Titan games stayed under the total.
— Tannehill is 76-64 as an NFL starter.

— Washington gave up 26.8 ppg in its 1-3 start.
— Last three games, Commanders have been outscored 63-7 in first half.
— Last two games, Washington scored 2 TD’s on 24 drives (eight 3/outs)
— First two games, Washington scored 8 TD’s on 24 drives
— Commanders are 2-4 ATS in last six games as a home dog.
— Washington scored 16 points in last six red zone drives.
— Last 3+ years, Commanders are 11-21-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Commanders are 5-7 ATS in last 12 games vs AFC opponents.
— QB Wentz is 45-44-1 as an NFL starter.

— Teams split last six series games.
— Road underdog covered all six of those games.
— Over is 4-2 in last six meetings.

 

[Udog]

Texans (0-3-1) @ Jaguars (2-2)
— Texans have been outgained by 223-116-34-73 yards.
— Texans have given up 22 plays of 20+ yards.
— Houston has allowed 172 rushing yards/game in first four games.
— Texans are 6-9 ATS in last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Texans have 7 TD’s on 44 drives this season (16 3/outs)
— Houston is converted only 14-52 third down plays.
— Texans have scored 44 points on ten red zone drives.
— 2nd-year QB Mills is 2-12-1 as an NFL starter.

— Jaguars scored 26.3 ppg in their first four games (2-2).
— Jaguars are favored for first time this season.
— Last two years, Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
— While HC in Philly, Pederson was 11-15-1 ATS as a home favorite.
— Last 2+ years, Jaguars are 9-19-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Jacksonville outscored last three foes 47-27 in second half.
— In wins, Jaguars converted 14-30 third down plays; in losses, 5-19.
— Jaguars outscored foes 55-26 in second half.
— 2nd-year QB Lawrence is 5-16 as an NFL starter- LW he was first player in last 50 years to lose four fumbles in same game.

— Houston won last eight series games (6-2 ATS)
— Texans are 8-3 ATS in last 11 visits to Jacksonville.
— Over is 3-1 in last four meetings.

49ers (2-2) @ Panthers (1-3)
— Short week, long trip after Monday night’s big win.
— 49ers are 2-2 so far, despite outgaining foes by 90 yards/game.
— SF lost first two road games, 19-10/11-10.
— Since 2018, 49ers are 7-9 ATS as a road favorite.
— 49ers outscored first four opponents 48-9 in first half.
— 49ers have been outscored 37-23 in second half.
— SF have scored only 33 points in ten red zone drives.
— All four 49er games stayed under the total.
— QB Garoppolo is 38-17 as an NFL starter.

— Last three games, Carolina scored three TD’s on 32 drives (ten 3/outs).
— Panthers were held under 300 yards (261-275-293-220) in all four games.
— Carolina is 3-8-1 ATS in last 12 games as a home underdog.
— Carolina has converted only 12-47 third down plays.
— Carolina is 3-10 ATS in last 13 games coming off a loss.
— Last 3+ years, Carolina is 16-37 SU.
— Last three Panther games stayed under the total.
— Mayfield is 31-34 as an NFL starter.

— Carolina won five of last six series games.
— 49ers are 1-5 ATS in last six visits to Charlotte.
— Teams haven’t met since 2019.
— Over is 5-2 in last seven series games.

Eagles (4-0) @ Cardinals (2-2)
— Philly won its first four games, scoring 38-24-24-29 points.
— Eagles have run ball for 661 yards, converted 26-50 third down plays.
— Eagles outscored first four foes 92-35 in first half.
— Last three weeks, Philly scored 68 points in first half, 9 points in 2nd half.
— Last three opponents converted 12-36 on third down.
— Eagles are 3-6 ATS last nine games as a road favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Philly is 13-11 ATS coming off a win.
— 3rd-year QB Hurts is 13-11 as an NFL starter.

— Cardinals have been outscored 66-16 in first half this year.
— Arizona outscored last three foes 58-16 in second half.
— Last three opponents went under their team total.
— Under Kingsbury, Arizona is 5-6 ATS as a home underdog.
— Cardinals have converted only 18-58 third down plays.
— Last two opponents converted only 5-23 third down plays.
— Arizona is 13-11 ATS in last 24 games coming off a win.
— Kyler Murray is 24-26-1 as an NFL starter.

— Cardinals won seven of last ten series games.
— Eagles are 0-5 ATS in last five trips to Arizona (last cover here, 2001)
— Under is 5-2 in last seven series games.

 

[Udog]

Cowboys (3-1) @ Rams (2-2)
— QB Rush is 4-0 as starter, first-ever Dallas QB to do that.
— Dallas has allowed only four TD’s on 41 drives this season.
— Last 3 weeks, Cowboys allowed 3.9/4.0/3.5 yards/pass attempt.
— Dallas is 4-1 ATS in last five games as a road underdog.
— Cowboys have converted only 16-53 third down plays.
— Dallas is 8-3 ATS in last 11 games coming off a win.
— Cowboys outscored last three opponents 35-13 in first half.
— Under is 3-0-1 in their games this season.

— Stafford was sacked seven times in both LA losses this year.
— Three of Rams’ five starters on OL were out last week.
— Rams have been outscored 49-3 in 4th quarter of games.
— Rams’ longest play last week was only 18 yards.
— Rams are 6-8 ATS in last 14 games as a home favorite.
— Last two games, LA scored 19 points on six red zone drives. s
— Under McVay, Rams are 15-9-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Stafford is 18-7 as QB of the Rams.

— Rams won three of last four series games.
— Cowboys lost 20-17/30-22 in last two road series games.
— Over is 4-1 in last five meetings.

Bengals (2-2) @ Ravens (2-2)
— Bengals won last two games, converted 15-29 on 3rd down.
— Cincy allowed only four TD’s on 46 drives this season.
— Opponents have converted only 16-53 third down plays.
— Bengals are 4-1-1 ATS last six games as a road underdog.
— Last 3+ years, Cincy is 6-8-2 ATS coming off a win.
— Bengals’ first four games stayed under the total.
— Bengals are 7-4-1 ATS in last 12 AFC North road games.
— 3rd-year QB Burrow is 17-16-1 as an NFL starter.

— Ravens lost their last five home games by total of 11 points.
— Road team won all four of their games SU this season.
— Baltimore led 35-14/20-3 in their two losses TY.
— Ravens are 2-5 ATS last seven games as a home favorite.
— Baltimore outscored first four opponents 72-33 in first half
— Ravens have scored 14 TD’s on 40 drives this season.
— Ravens are 8-6 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.
— Since 2017, Baltimore is 5-10 ATS in AFC North home games.
— Last 3+ years, Ravens are 9-1 ATS in games with spread of 3 or less.
— Jackson is 40-17 as an NFL starter.

— Cincinnati swept LY’s meetings, 41-17/41-21
— Bengals are 6-2 ATS in last eight visits to Baltimore.
— Over is 5-3 in last eight series games.

Monday’s game
Raiders (1-3) @ Chiefs (3-1)
— Raiders’ three losses are by 5-6-2 points.
— Raiders ran ball for 212 yards LW (80 ypg in first three games).
— Las Vegas is 9-7 ATS in last 16 games coming off a win.
— Raiders are 11-7 ATS last 18 games as a home underdog.
— Las Vegas outscored last two opponents 25-7 in second half.
— Las Vegas is 6-10 ATS in last 16 AFC West road games.
— Raiders have gone under their team total three of four games.
— Derek Carr is 58-74 as an NFL starter.

— Chiefs won their only home game, 27-24 (-4) over Chargers.
— Chiefs converted 12-17 third down plays in LW’s 41-31 win in Tampa.
— Kansas City is 7-10 ATS last 17 games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs have 15 TD’s on 40 drives this season.
— Kansas City opponents went under team total in three of four games.
— Chiefs are 11-15-1 ATS last 27 games coming off a win.
— Chiefs are 5-5 ATS in last ten AFC West home games.
— Mahomes is 62-16 as an NFL starter.

— Chiefs won 12 of last 14 series games.
— Raiders are 2-7 ATS in last nine visits to Arrowhead.
— Last four series games went over the total.

 

[Udog]

Week 5 NFL Gridiron Betting Angles
Vince Akins

Play ON ATS Trend
Matchup: Atlanta Falcons vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Buccaneers are 10-0 ATS since November 15, 2020 the game following a primetime game.

Play AGAINST ATS Trend
Matchup: Detroit Lions vs. New England Patriots (FOX, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Lions are 0-12-1 ATS since 2011 when they scored at least 37 points last game.

OU Trend
Matchup: New York Giants vs. Green Bay Packers (NFL Network, 9:30 a.m. ET)

The Giants are 0-10 OU since November 15, 2020 when they ran for at least 125 yards last game.

Choice Trend
Matchup: Los Angeles Chargers vs. Cleveland Browns (CBS, 1:00 p.m. ET)

The Chargers are 0-10 OU since 2017 coming off a win where they were not 9+ point favorites where they allowed at least 24 points.

 

[Udog]

The Giants are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Packers are 2-4 ATS in their last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in nine of the Giants' last 11 games.
The total has gone OVER in six of Green Bay's last eight games.
The Giants are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.
Green Bay are 13-4 SU in their last 17 games.
The total has gone OVER in seven of the last ten matchups between the Giants and Packers.


Steelers are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five games overall
Steelers are 2-5 ATS in the past seven road games
Bills are 6-2-2 ATS in the past 10 games overall
Bills are 4-0-1 ATS in the past five home games
UNDER is 44-19-1 in the past 64 road games for the Steelers
UNDER is 25-10-1 in the past 36 October games for the Steelers
UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven October games for the Bills
UNDER is 6-1 in the past seven meetings


Chargers are 7-2-1 ATS in the past 10 October games
Browns are 2-5 ATS in the past seven home games
Browns are 8-20 ATS in the past 28 October games
Browns are 2-6 ATS in the past eight vs. AFC teams
OVER is 8-2 in the past 10 games for the Chargers
OVER is 4-1 in the past five road games for the Chargers
OVER is 6-2 in the past eight October games for the Chargers
Chargers are 2-6 ATS in the past eight meetings
Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings


Bears are 1-3-1 ATS in the past five games overall
Bears are 1-5 ATS in the past six road games
Bears are 3-13 ATS in the past 16 vs. NFC North
Bears are 0-4 ATS in the past four vs. winning teams
Vikings are 2-5 ATS in the past seven games overall
Vikings are 1-5 ATS in the past six October games
UNDER is 5-2 in the past seven vs. NFC North for the Bears
UNDER is 19-8 in the past 27 vs. winning teams for the Bears
OVER is 9-3 in the past 12 games overall for the Vikings
OVER is 5-1 in the past six home games for the Vikings
OVER is 11-4 in the past 15 vs. NFC North for the Vikings
Bears are 1-4 ATS in the past five meetings
OVER is 5-2 in the past seven meetings in Minnesota



The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
The total has gone OVER in 12 of the Jets' last 18 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 14 games.
The Jets are 4-10 SU in their last 14 games.
The Dolphins are 11-2 SU in their last 13 games.
The Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last eight matchups against the Jets.
The Jets are 1-7 SU in their last eight home games.
The Dolphins are 8-1 SU in their last nine games against the Jets.
The total has gone UNDER in five of Miami's last six road games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of the last five matchups between the Dolphins and Jets.
The total has gone UNDER in five straight matchups between the Jets and Dolphins at MetLife.


The Cowboys are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games.
The Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Dallas' last five games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the Rams' last six games.
The Cowboys are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games.
The Cowboys are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
The Rams are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
The total has gone OVER in four of the last five matchups between the Cowboys and Rams.
The total has gone OVER in five of the last seven matchups between the Cowboys and Rams in L. A.
The total has gone OVER in five of the Rams' last seven games when playing at home against Dallas.


The Eagles are 8-2 SU in their last 10 games.
The Cardinals are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
The Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games against Arizona.
The total has gone UNDER in six of Arizona's last nine games.
The Eagles are 2-6 SU in their last eight games against Arizona.
The Cardinals are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games.
The Eagles are 4-1 SU in their last five road games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of the last seven matchups between the Eagles and Cardinals.
The Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against Arizona.
The Cardinals are 0-7 ATS in their last seven home games.


The Bengals are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games.
The total has gone UNDER in four of Baltimore's last six games.
The total has gone UNDER in nine straight Bengals' games.
The Ravens are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games.
The Bengals are 8-4 SU in their last 12 games.
The Bengals are 6-3 ATS in their last nine matchups against Baltimore.
The Ravens are 0-5 SU in their last five home games.
The Bengals are 2-5 SU in their last seven matchups against Baltimore.
The total has gone UNDER in five straight Bengals' road games.
The Bengals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games against Baltimore.
The total has gone OVER in six of the last nine matchups between the Ravens and Bengals.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 5

 

[Cnotes53]

CIN at BAL

08:20 PM

BAL -3.0 U 47.5

+500 +500

 

[Cnotes53]

OCTOBER'S OPINIONS AND BEST BETS !

10/08/22..................5-3-0................62.50%................+ 8.50
10/06/22..................2-0-0..............100.00%................+10.00
10/03/22..................2-0-0..............100.00%................+10.00
10/02/22................15-12-1..............55.36%..................+9.00

Totals...................24-15-1..............61.53%................+37.50

*****************************************
BEST BETS

10/08/22.................5-3-0..................62.50%..............+ 8.50
10/06/22.................1-0-0................100.00%..............+ 5.00
10/03/22.................2-0-0................100.00%..............+10.00
10/02/22.................8-5-0.................61.53%...............+12.50

Totals...................16-8-0.................66.66%..............+35.00

************************************************** ********

SEPT.'S NFL OPINIONS AND BEST BETS
TOTALS................44-36-3................55.00%.................+22.00
************************************************** *****************
BEST BETS
TOTALS..............35-20-0..................63.63%...............+ 65.00

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Monday’s Den: Wrapping up an NFL Sunday

Ravens 19, Bengals 17
— Tucker kicked a 43-yard FG at the gun for the win.
— Ravens’ last six home games (1-5) were decided by total of 13 points.
— Baltimore’s only TD drive was 50 yards; they kicked four FG’s.
— Lamar Jackson is 41-17 as an NFL starter.
— Ravens are 2-6 ATS last eight games as a home favorite.

— Bengals’ first four drives: 13 plays, 22 yards, 1 first down, no points.
— Bengals’ last five drives: 47 plays, 293 yards, 19 FD’s, 17 points.
— Ravens outgained Cincinnati 325-291.
— Cincy allowed only five TD’s on 55 drives this season.
— Last three games, Bengals converted 19-39 on 3rd down.

Chargers 30, Browns 28
— Ekeler ran ball for 173 yards, caught passes for 26 yards, scored 2 TD’s.
— 5 trips to red zone, Chargers scored 2 TD’s, kicked 3 field goals.
— Total yardage in game: LA 465, Cleveland 443.
— Chargers are 3-0 this year if they allow less than 37 points.
— Last 3+ years, Chargers are 5-8-1 ATS as a road favorite.

— Brissett threw awful INT in end zone with 2:44 left; Browns were set up for at least an easy go-ahead field goal.
— Browns missed FG’s of 45/54 yards, both wide right.
— Cleveland is 2-3, with losses by 3-1-2 points.
— Four of their five games were decided by 3 or fewer points.
— Cleveland has run ball for 192.4 yards/game this season.

Saints 39, Seahawks 32
— Seahawks’ four TD’s were all on plays of 35+ yards.
— In all, Seattle had six plays that gained 30+ yards.
— Seahawks had 12 penalties for 85 yards, Saints 6 for 57.
— Last four weeks, Seattle gave up 189-179-145-235 yards rushing.
— Last four games, Seattle gave up 27-27-45-39 points.

— Taysom Hill ran ball nine times for 112 yards, three TD’s- he also threw a TD.
— His 60-yard TD run with 5:22 left put New Orleans ahead for good.
— Seahawks were 1-9 on third down, Saints were 8-14.
— Last four games, Saints are minus-10 in turnovers (2-12)
— Saints won last four series games, by 3-6-5-7 points.

Titans 21, Commanders 17
— Washington had ball on 2-yard line in last 0:20, Wentz threw an INT.
— Tennessee is 3-2, but has been outgained by 112.6 yds/game.
— Titans won their last three games, scoring 24-24-21 points.
— Opponents have converted only 16-59 third down plays.
— Tennessee has outscored opponents 82-47 in first half.

— Washington scored 16 points in last seven red zone drives.
— Commanders converted 1-11 third down plays.
— Washington outgained the Titans, 385-241
— Last four games, Commanders have been outscored 77-17 in first half.
— Washington’s two TD’s were on big plays, of 75-30 yards.
— Last 3+ years, Commanders are 11-22-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Giants 27, Packers 22 (@ London)
— Giants have won games when trailing 13-0/20-10 at halftime.
— Giants have outscored opponents 60-39 in second half of games.
— Big Blue converted 6-11 third down plays.
— Giants gained 7.6 yards/pass attempt.
— NFC East teams are 9-5 ATS outside their division.

— Packers’ offense in first half: 38 plays, 228 yards, 20 points.
— Packers’ offense in 2nd half: 25 plays, 98 yards, no points.
— Green Bay led 17-3 with 2:00 left in first half.
— Packers gained only 5.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Packers are giving up 126.4 rushing yards/game.

Vikings 29, Bears 22
— Vikings’ first three drives: 32 plays, 232 yards, 21 points.
— Bears kicked 51-yard FG to go up 22-21 with 9:26 left.
— Vikings scored TD on 17-play, 75-yard drive with 2:26 left.
— Vikings won last three weeks, scoring winning points in last 2:26 all three games.
— Since 2015, Vikings are 14-9-1 ATS in NFC North home games.

— Bears have been outscored 80-39 in first half this season.
— Minnesota converted 12-15 third down plays.
— QB Fields had 47 of Chicago’s 78 rushing yards.
— Bears have converted only 21-60 third down plays.
— Last 3+ years, Chicago is 10-16-1 ATS coming off a loss.

Buccaneers 21, Falcons 15
— Atlanta is only NFL team that is 5-0 ATS.
— Falcons in quarters 1-3: 39 plays, 140 yards, no points.
— They scored TD’s with 13:39/4:38 left for backdoor cover.
— Atlanta threw for only 110 yards (3.7 yards/attempt)
— Last 2+ years, Falcons are 11-6 ATS as a road underdog.

— Buccaneers led this game 13-0 at halftime.
— Tampa Bay converted 9-16 third down plays.
— Buccaneers outgained Atlanta, 420-261.
— With Brady, Tampa Bay is 5-2 ATS in NFC South home games.
— Tampa Bay is 11-5-1 ATS in last 17 games as a home favorite.

Bills 38, Steelers 3
— Steelers scored 13.5 ppg in losing last four games.
— Steelers were +5 in turnovers in their only win, in OT over Bengals.
— Pittsburgh has only six TD’s on 43 drives this season.
— Steelers missed field goals of 33-45 yards.
— Last 3+ years, Steelers are 8-12 ATS coming off a loss.

— Bills threw a 98-yard TD pass on third play of game.
— Early in second quarter, they threw a 62-yard TD pass.
— Bills outgained first five opponents by 180.2 yards/game.
— Only nine of Bills’ 54 plays came on third down (5-9)
— Bills outscored first five opponents 70-7 in second half.

Patriots 29, Lions 0
— New England kicked FG’s on four of first five drives.
— Patriots’ first TD was defensive score with 3:26 left in first half.
— NE’s only offensive TD came with 1:51 left in third quarter.
— Patriots ran for 176 yards, averaged 9.0 yards/pass attempt.
— Since 2013, NE is 40-25-3 ATS as a home favorite

— Detroit converted 4-12 on 3rd down, 0-6 on 4th down.
— Detroit gained 203 yards in 2nd half, lost ball on downs every drive.
— Lions had ball in red zone three times, didn’t score.
— Lions lost despite a 9-yard edge in field position.
— Detroit is now 4-17-1 SU with Campbell as head coach.

Jets 40, Dolphins 17
— Bridgewater got KO’d, 3rd-string QB Thompson was 19-33/166 passing.
— Dolphins gave up a safety on their first offensive series.
— Miami in 2nd half: 34 plays, 148 yards, 7 first downs, 3 points.
— Dolphins were minus-2 in turnovers (minus-5/last three games).
— Last three games, opponents were 24-44 on third down.

— Jets outscored Miami 21-0 in fourth quarter.
— Gang Green averaged 8.1 yards/pass attempt.
— Jets had 14-yard advantage in field position.
— Jets scored five TD’s on six trips to red zone.
— If playoffs started now (they do not), Jets would be a Wild Card team.

Texans 13, Jaguars 6
— Texans drove 74 yards for game-winning TD with 3:11 left.
— Pierce ran ball for 99 yards and a TD.
— Texans have now given up 29 plays of 20+ yards.
— Texans have been outgained by average of 124 yards/game.
— Houston won last nine series games (7-2 ATS)

— Jaguars’ average starting point; their own 17-yard line.
— Jaguars had seven plays of 20+ yards, scored only six points.
— Jacksonville outgained Texans 422-248, but was minus-2 in turnovers.
— Last 2+ years, Jaguars are 9-20-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last 2+ years, Jacksonville is 0-4 ATS as a favorite.

49ers 37, Panthers 15
— 49ers converted 7-12 on 3rd down, averaged 7.6 yards/pass attempt.
— Wilson ran ball for 120 yards (7.1 yards/carry).
— 49ers outscored first five opponents 65-12 in first half.
— 49ers are outgaining foes by 90 yards/game.
— QB Garoppolo is 39-17 as an NFL starter.

— Down 10-3, Mayfield threw pick-6 with 0:43 left in first half.
— Last three games, Carolina scored 4 TD’s on 43 drives (14 3/outs).
— Carolina has converted only 15-62 third down plays.
— Panthers are 3-9-1 ATS in last 13 games as a home underdog.
— Panthers are 3-11 ATS in last 14 games coming off a loss.

Eagles 20, Cardinals 17
— Eagles led 14-0 midway thru second quarter.
— Philly kicked 23-yard FG with 1:45 left for winning score.
— Last three weeks, Philly scored 82 points in first half, 15 points in 2nd half.
— Eagles outscored first five foes 106-45 in first half.
— Philly is 3-7 ATS last ten games as a road favorite.

— Cardinals tied game with 9:43 left with a 90-yard TD drive.
— Arizona’s first four drives: 18 plays, 50 yards, 4 first downs, no points.
— Arizona’s last five drives: 53 plays, 298 yards, 19 first downs, 17 points.
— Cardinals converted 8-14 third down plays.
— Cardinals have been outscored 80-26 in first half this year.

Cowboys 22, Rams 10
— QB Rush is 5-0 as starter, first-ever Dallas QB to do that.
— Dallas has allowed only five TD’s on 53 drives this season.
— Dallas is 5-1 ATS in last six games as a road underdog.
— Cowboys outscored last four opponents 51-23 in first half.
— Under is 4-0-1 in their games this season.

— Rams gave up a defensive TD on their first drive of the game.
— Second drive of the game, they had a punt blocked.
— Rams have scored one TD on their last 22 drives.
— LA’s only TD in this game was a 75-yard pass to Cooper Kupp.
— Last three games, LA scored 22 points on eight red zone drives.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 5

The Raiders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The Chiefs are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games.
The Raiders are 1-4 SU in their last five games.
The total has gone OVER in nine of Kansas City's last 12 games.
The Raiders are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games against Kansas City.
The Chiefs are 14-3 SU in their last 17 games.
The Raiders are 1-8 SU in their last nine matchups against Kansas City.
The Raiders are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games.
The Chiefs are 9-1 SU in their last 10 home games.
The Chiefs are are 8-1 SU in their last nine home games against Las Vegas.
The total has gone OVER in four of the last last five matchups between the Raiders and Chiefs.

 

[Udog]

Armadillo Sports

Chiefs 30, Raiders 29
— Raiders scored TD with 4:27 left, went for 2 points and lead, but failed.
— Carr threw TD passes of 58-48 yards, both to Adams.
— Carr is now 58-75 as an NFL starter.
— Raiders are 12-7 ATS last 19 games as a road underdog.
— Raiders’ four losses are by 5-6-1-2 points.

— Raiders led 17-0 with 5:00 left in first half.
— Chiefs first 3 drives of 2nd half: 33 plays, 207 yards, 20 points.
— Kelce caught 7 passes for only 25 yards, but four TD’s.
— Chiefs won their two hone games by total of four points.
— Chiefs won 13 of last 15 games in this rivalry.

 

[Udog]

WEEK 6

 

[Udog]

WASHINGTON is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

TAMPA BAY is 42-69 ATS (-33.9 Units) in October games since 1992.

CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) in road games after 2 straight unders in the last 2 seasons.

INDIANAPOLIS are 76-49 ATS (22.1 Units) after allowing <=14 pts. since 1992.

NEW ENGLAND is 95-58 ATS (31.2 Units) as a dog since 1992.

GREEN BAY is 26-9 ATS (16.1 Units) in home games after a loss by <=6 pts. since 1992.

NY GIANTS are 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in home games after covering the spread in 4 out of their last 5 games since 1992.

MINNESOTA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after having won 3 out of their last 4 games in the last 3 seasons.

ATLANTA is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents in the last 3 seasons.

CAROLINA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) after going over the total in the last 2 seasons.

ARIZONA is 10-2 ATS (7.8 Units) in road games in the last 2 seasons.

KANSAS CITY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

DALLAS are 11-1 ATS (9.9 Units) in the 1rst half of the season in the last 2 seasons.

DENVER is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) after an upset loss in the last 2 seasons.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 6

 

[Udog]

NFL

Week 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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Washington @ Chicago
Washington
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Washington is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Chicago's last 10 games at home

NY Jets @ Green Bay
NY Jets
NY Jets is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay
Green Bay is 16-3 SU in its last 19 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing NY Jets

Cincinnati @ New Orleans
Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 5 games
New Orleans
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New Orleans's last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games

San Francisco @ Atlanta
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco

New England @ Cleveland
New England
New England is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
New England is 7-2 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Cleveland's last 7 games when playing New England

Jacksonville @ Indianapolis
Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games on the road
Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Jacksonville

Minnesota @ Miami
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Minnesota's last 13 games on the road
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Miami is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home

Baltimore @ NY Giants
Baltimore
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 7 games
Baltimore is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing NY Giants
NY Giants
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of NY Giants's last 8 games at home
NY Giants is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

Tampa Bay @ Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Pittsburgh is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay

Carolina @ LA Rams
Carolina
Carolina is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Carolina's last 7 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of LA Rams's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games at home

Arizona @ Seattle
Arizona
Arizona is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Arizona is 10-2 ATS in its last 12 games on the road
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Seattle's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Seattle's last 8 games

Buffalo @ Kansas City
Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Buffalo's last 6 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Buffalo is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games at home
Kansas City is 15-3 SU in its last 18 games

Dallas @ Philadelphia
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games at home

Denver @ LA Chargers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games
LA Chargers
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of LA Chargers's last 9 games when playing at home against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games at home

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

[Udog]

NFL Week 6 Bet Now, Bet Later: Dallas, Philly Grind to the Ground
Jason Logan

The Dallas Cowboys are riding Ezekiel Elliott and a strong ground game along with a stingy defense to great success, especially after downing the Rams. Take the Under for Sunday Night Football vs. the unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles, who also boast staunch D.

Five weeks of football is more than enough for NFL bettors to start forming some solid opinions on teams — good or bad. It’s also an abundance of data to pump into the oddsmakers’ power ratings, meaning the NFL Week 6 odds will have a slim margin of error for bookmakers.

That means getting the best number for your wager is vital to surviving the mid-October slate. I size up the Week 6 opening point spreads and totals and tell you which ones to bet now and which ones to bet later.

Week 6 bet now, bet later picks

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-9): Bet Now
San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5): Bet Later
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 43.5) Bet Now
Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (Over 40): Bet Later

Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Rams (-9): Bet Now

The Panthers are possibly the worst team in the NFL right now and, depending on when you read this, head coach Matt Rhule may or may not still have a job.

But the big reason you’ll want to grab the lowest line you can with the Rams right now is that Carolina QB Baker Mayfield was seen wearing a walking boot on his left foot following the Panthers' squash of a loss to San Francisco on Sunday.

Mayfield wasn’t playing great while healthy, but Carolina is in a pickle when it comes to the QB position. Sam Darnold is still recovering from a bad ankle sprain, leaving P.J. Walker as the potential starter in Week 6 if Mayfield is out of action.

Coming off a second straight loss, Los Angeles is in rare air after getting thrown around by Dallas and San Francisco in its past two outings. The offense is sputtering, and pass protection is a big issue, but Los Angeles is still a force defensively and a couple of tiers above Carolina at this point.

This line is already trending as high as -10 at some Vegas shops. Bet Rams -9 now if you aren’t soured on the Super Bowl champs.


San Francisco 49ers at Atlanta Falcons (+5.5): Bet Later

Betting on the Falcons has been an experience so far in 2022.

Atlanta is punching above its weight class after being pegged as one of the worst teams heading into the season, managing to cover the spread in all five games so far. That includes another backdoor cover against the Buccaneers on Sunday, rallying for 15 points in the fourth quarter to close the gap for a 21-15 loss at 10-point pups.

The Falcons are back home and getting +5.5 to visiting San Francisco, with those quickly turning into +6. The Niners just blew the doors off the Carolina Panthers on both sides of the ball and are picking up steam, with back-to-back wins and three victories in their last four outings.

An injury to star DE Nick Bosa is the latest big-name injury for the 49ers (he sat out the second half of Week 5 with a groin injury), but that shouldn’t slow the public push toward San Francisco. Atlanta has its own ailments, but if you are backing the "best bet in football," wait and see how high this line runs before going all-in on the ATL.


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (Under 43.5): Bet Now

The Cooper Rush-led Cowboys come to Philadelphia to face the unblemished Eagles on Sunday Night Football in Week 5. While there’s a chance Dak Prescott could be ready, it really sounds like he’s a week or two away. That means a more ground-orientated offense for Dallas, which just pounded out the Rams for 163 yards on 34 carries.

The Eagles are also opting for the run. Philadelphia’s offense is anchored in the ground-and-pound, and even though Jalen Hurts and this passing game have had their moments, this Dallas defense is a dangerous bunch. The Cowboys haven’t allowed an opponent to top 20 points and are coming off a three-takeaway, five-sack effort in L.A.

Philly’s defense is no slouch either, allowing an average of just 13.25 points in the past four games. With the chilly October night air setting the stage in Lincoln Financial Field, this Week 6 NFC East encounter feels like a grinder. Get the Under 43.5 now.


Chicago Bears at Washington Commanders (Over 40): Bet Later

If you thought last Thursday’s primetime game was a stinker, just wait until you see the total for Week 6’s matchup between the Bears and Commanders. Books opened this at 40 points and the number has started to slide to 39.5 points.

On the surface, this game looks like one you would pass up in favor of a root canal but there could be value with the Over should the public perception of these teams continue to drag the number down.

The Bears offense was a laughingstock entering Week 5, but Chicago started to move the chains with QB Justin Fields doing damage with his arm and his legs in the second half against the Vikings. Fields completed 71.4% of throws for an average of 9.9 yards per attempt — a massive upgrade from the past four weeks.

The same could be said for Washington, which has totaled a mere 35 points over the past three weeks. The Commanders scored 17 of those points in Sunday's loss to Tennessee but outgained the Titans 385-241. A goal-line INT from Carson Wentz (who passed for 359 yards) killed a would-be win for Washington.

If you don’t have anything better to do on Thursday, maybe wait and see if this total keeps shrinking before coming back on the Over. Or maybe get the laundry done and catch up on whatever nerdy medieval show you’re streaming. Your call.

 

[Udog]

Week 6 NFL Tech Trends
Vince Akins

 

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-up

Week 6

Thursday game
Commanders (1-4) @ Bears (2-3)
— Washington lost its last four games, scoring 11.7 ppg in last three.
— Last four games, Commanders have been outscored 77-17 in first half.
— Last three games, Washington scored 16 points in seven red zone drives.
— Washington already has a minus-7 turnover ratio (1-8)
— Commanders are 2-7 ATS in last nine games as a road underdog.
— Last 3+ years, Commanders are 11-22-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— Last two games, Commanders converted 6-26 on third down.
— Since 2018, QB Wentz is 25-37 ATS.

— Chicago won its two home games, 19-10/23-20.
— Bears have been outscored 81-39 in first half this season.
— Bears have outscored foes 47-26 in second half.
— Chicago is 8-4 ATS in last 12 games with spread of 3 or less.
— Bears have converted only 21-60 third down plays.
— Chicago covered its last four games as a home favorite.
— Last 3+ years, Chicago is 10-16-1 ATS coming off a loss.
— 2nd-year QB Fields is 4-11 as an NFL starter.

— Washington won seven of last eight series games.
— Commanders won last four visits here, covered last five.
— Under is 5-1 in last six meetings.
— Washington HC Rivera played for the Bears from 1984-92.

 

[Udog]

NFL
Weather Report

Week 6

The Commanders are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
The Bears are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games.
The total has gone UNDER in five of Washington's last seven games.
The total has gone OVER in five of Chicago's last six games against Washington.
The Bears are 0-9 ATS in their last nine home games against Washington.
The Commanders are 2-8 SU in their last 10 games.
The Commanders are 5-1 ATS in their last six games against Chicago.
The Commanders are 7-1 SU in their last eight games against Chicago.
The Commanders are 1-4 SU in their last five road games.
The Commanders are 9-0 ATS in their last nine road games against Chicago.

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[Cnotes53]

HURSDAY, OCTOBER 13

WAS at CHI	08:15 PM	CHI +1.0 U 38.0	+500 +500