Cnotes53 2017 NBA Best Bets-Trends-News Thru Playoffs !

Cnotes53

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Friday's Essentials
March 2, 2018


Game of the Night - Minnesota at Utah, ESPN, 10:35 ET

Only the Rockets had a better February than Utah, which matched Toronto at 9-2 and fared better than even Golden State (8-2). Despite their success, that run was only good enough to get the Jazz to the brink of playoff contention since the absence of Rudy Gobert proved to be so detrimental.

In the month he missed between mid-December and Jan. 18, they went 4-11. His return helped right the ship, which coupled with rookie Donovan Mitchell?s emergence, has Utah back over .500, currently two games behind the Nuggets, who hold the No. 8 seed.

The Timberwolves are hoping to fare better than Utah did after losing its most important player, Jimmy Butler, to a small tear in his meniscus that required surgery. His expected recovery time will likely keep him out until the final week of the regular season, so it?s on the players left to try and protect the Northwest Division lead he left them with. After winning their first two games without him, the Wolves looked like they badly missed Butler on Thursday night.

The Trail Blazers pulled to within one-half game of the Wolves after last night?s 108-99 win, taking advantage of a big fourth quarter to rally. Karl-Anthony Towns came through with 34 points and 17 rebounds, but the rest of his teammates barely shot 40 percent from the field and were a combined 3-for-17 from 3-point range. Butler allowed Towns to be one of the best No. 2 options in the game.

Now that the pecking order has been altered, it?s on Andrew Wiggins and Jamal Crawford to pick up the slack. They combined to shoot 12-for-33 in Portland, missing nine of 11 3-pointers. A Minnesota loss in Utah would drop them into a first-place tie with the Blazers, who they finished off a split of a season series against last night.

Nemanja Bjelica has taken Butler?s spot in the lineup and performed well rebounding and spacing the floor as a 3-point threat, averaging 9.3 points and 9.0 rebounds. This will be their second back-to-back since the All-Star break, splitting at Houston and home against Chicago last week. They?re 5-6 on the second night when playing consecutive games.

The Jazz were crushed by the Blazers last Friday night and will be wrapping up a six-game homestand here, looking to finish 4-2. Utah?s 11-game winning streak ended in that loss to Portland, while Houston came through earlier in the week and utilized a small-ball approach to win by 11 points. A win over the Mavs in between those games on Saturday night was rather sloppy, so the Jazz haven?t exactly lit it up coming out of the All-Star break.

Donovan Mitchell scored 40 points to open February and won a slam dunk contest along the way, but he?s shot 39 percent over his last 10 games shot 1-for-9 from 3-point range against the Rockets. Mitchell is indefensible if he?s got his jump shot working, and has Ricky Rubio back in the fold to play table-setter, so we?ll see if he can snap out of his slump against a Timberwolves defense that has held him to just 13 points per game and 42 percent shooting.

Rubio is still working his way back from a hip injury with just three games under his belt, but had averaged 27.7 points over the three games prior to getting hurt. If Rubio can get back to that level, Utah has plenty of ammunition to chase down Butler-less Minnesota in the Northwest Division.

Although the Jazz are currently bringing up the rear, they?re only five games back of first place entering Friday night. They could make a statement by taking care of business at home as a 6.5-point favorite.

These teams will play again on April 1 and haven?t faced off since Nov. 13, so it?s not worth putting much stock into the Timberwolves winning the first two games since Mitchell was nowhere near as polished as he is now. Minnesota won the first meeting way back on Oct. 20, in the second game of the season, 100-97.

The Jazz have failed to cover in any of their last five outings. The Wolves have seen the ?over? prevail in eight of their last nine contests. Taj Gibson, who left Thursday's loss with a hip issue, is listed as questionable.

Injury report

There aren't a lot of great matchups on Friday's 10-game NBA card. You just read about the top Western Conference matchup. The East has the night's three best alternatives. Toronto visiting Washington and Milwaukee hosting Indiana look interesting, while Charlotte is hoping to continue its playoff push in Philadelphia against a team in a letdown spot coming off last night's win in Cleveland.

Joel Embiid is likely to play in his fourth back-to-back in a 30-dayspan against the Hornets but has shown no signs of wearing down. Charlotte may not have Cody Zeller due to a knee injury that sidelined him last time out. Michaek Kidd-Gilchrist also missed Wednesday's 134-106 loss to Boston and is listed as questionable due to a hamstring issue.

The Raptors lost wing OG Anunoby to a significant ankle sprain in a mid-week win in Orlando, so don't expect the rookie to play in D.C. against the Wizards. Pascal Siakam will likely see increased minutes as a result. Washington is likely to have Otto Porter available despite elbow discomfort.

Giannis Antetokounmpo is probably the biggest name whose availability for tonight's action needs to be tracked. He left Wednesday's 23-point loss to the Pistons with an eye injury that left him with blurry vision post-game. The expectation is that he'll be out there, but make sure before coming in on Bucks/Pacers. Milwaukee wing Tony Snell is also dealing with a thigh injury.

OKC has seen Russell Westbrook toil through a 2-for-24 shooting slump from beyond the arc, but have remained healthy and may have the newly-signed Corey Brewer available to debut after being signed following his buyout with the Lakers. Phoenix forward T.J. Warren (tailbone) and center Tyson Chandler (neck) missed Wednesday's win in Memphis and are questionable here.

The Clippers host the Knicks and aren't likely to get Danilo Gallinari back in the mix due to his hand injury. Guard Avery Bradley remains sidelined, which means the L.A. defense could again struggle.
 

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Armadillo's Write-Up

Friday, March 2


Orlando won four of last five games with Detroit; under is 4-2 in last six series games. Pistons are 0-3 vs spread in last three visits here. Detroit lost six of its last eight games; they?re 3-4 as road favorites. Under is 3-0-3 in their last six games. Magic lost their last seven games; they?re 7-3 in last ten games as home underdogs. Six of their last nine games stayed under the total.

Hornets won six of last eight games with Philly; they?re 3-2 vs spread in last five games in this building. Four of last five series games stayed under. Charlotte won five of its last six games; they?re 9-12-2 as road underdogs. Over is 3-0-1 in their last four games. 76ers won eight of their last ten games; they covered 10 of last 11 games as home favorites. Under is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Golden State won nine of last ten games with the Hawks; they?re 3-2 vs spread in last five visits to Atlanta. Four of last six series games went over. Warriors won seven of last eight games; they are 2-6 vs spread in last eight road games. Over is 5-3 in their last eight games. Hawks lost six of their last eight games; they?re 3-5 in last eight games as home underdogs. Four of their last five games stayed under.

Dallas won four of last five games with Chicago; they covered their last four visits to the Windy City, three of which stayed under the total. Mavericks lost seven of their last nine games; they?re 2-2 as road favorites. Six of their last eight games went over total. Bulls lost their last five games; they?re 11-9 as home underdogs. Four of their last five games went over the total.

Denver won last two games with Memphis, after losing seven of previous eight; Nuggets covered three of last four visits to Memphis. Last three series games stayed under total. Denver won seven of its last ten games; they?re 4-5 as road favorites. Nine of Nuggets? last ten games went over the total. Grizzlies lost their last ten games; they?re 7-10 as home underdogs. Four of their last six games went over.

Raptors won seven of last ten games with Washington; they?re 3-2 vs spread in last five games in this building. Seven of last ten series games stayed under. Toronto won nine of its last 10 games; they?re 11-8 as road favorites. Over is 4-1-1 in their last six games. Wizards won five of their last seven games; they?re 2-1 as home underdogs. Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

Home side won five of last six Pacer-Buck games; Indiana is 2-3 vs spread in last five visits in this arena. Three of last four series games stayed under. Pacers won four of their last six games; they?re 3-6 in last nine games as road underdogs. three of last four series games stayed under the total. Milwaukee lost four of its last five games; they?re 0-5 in last five games as home favorites. Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Home side won seven of last eight Thunder-Suns games; OKC is 2-4 vs spread in last six trips to the desert. Three of last four series games stayed under. Oklahoma City won four of its last five games; they?re 7-15 as road favorites. Five of their last seven games went over total. Phoenix lost nine of its last ten games; they?re 2-8 in last ten games as home underdogs. Four of their last six games stayed under.

Timberwolves won three of last four games with Utah; they covered their last three visits to Salt Lake City. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight series games. Minnesota split their last ten games; they?re 2-8 in last ten games as road underdogs. Eight of their last ten games went over. Utah won eight of its last ten games; they?re 2-11 in last 13 games as home favorites. Last four Jazz games went under the total.

Clippers won nine of last ten games with the Knicks, who are 3-2 vs spread in last five series games played here. Under is 7-3 in last ten series games. New York lost nine of its last 10 games; they?re 2-5 in last seven games as road underdogs. Last four Knick games went over the total. Clippers won seven of their last ten games; they?re 1-4 in last five games as home favorites. Four of their last five games went over total.
 

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Friday, March 2


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Trend Report
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DETROIT @ ORLANDO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games
Detroit is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Orlando is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit

CHARLOTTE @ PHILADELPHIA
Charlotte is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Charlotte's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games at home

GOLDEN STATE @ ATLANTA
Golden State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Golden State is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Atlanta's last 23 games when playing at home against Golden State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 6 games when playing Golden State

DALLAS @ CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chicago's last 7 games when playing at home against Dallas

DENVER @ MEMPHIS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
Memphis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing at home against Denver
Memphis is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Denver

TORONTO @ WASHINGTON
Toronto is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Toronto's last 11 games on the road
Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games

INDIANA @ MILWAUKEE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Indiana's last 11 games on the road
Indiana is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Milwaukee's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 8 games at home

OKLAHOMA CITY @ PHOENIX
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Oklahoma City is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games when playing Phoenix
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 6 games at home
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Oklahoma City

MINNESOTA @ UTAH
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Minnesota's last 10 games
Minnesota is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Utah
Utah is 12-2 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Utah's last 6 games at home

NEW YORK @ LA CLIPPERS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New York's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New York's last 5 games when playing on the road against LA Clippers
LA Clippers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against New York
LA Clippers is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing New York
 

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Long Sheet

Friday, March 2


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DETROIT (29 - 32) at ORLANDO (18 - 43) - 3/2/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record - 2nd half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 20-42 ATS (-26.2 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game since 1996.
DETROIT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
ORLANDO is 61-80 ATS (-27.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 25-44 ATS (-23.4 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
ORLANDO is 6-14 ATS (-9.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 5-4 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 5-4 straight up against ORLANDO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHARLOTTE (28 - 34) at PHILADELPHIA (33 - 27) - 3/2/2018, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHARLOTTE is 60-77 ATS (-24.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHARLOTTE is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
CHARLOTTE is 6-20 ATS (-16.0 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 83-58 ATS (+19.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) off an upset win as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 36-20 ATS (+14.0 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 19-5 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHARLOTTE is 4-3 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHARLOTTE is 5-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GOLDEN STATE (48 - 14) at ATLANTA (19 - 43) - 3/2/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in non-conference games this season.
ATLANTA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home games in March games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-2 against the spread versus GOLDEN STATE over the last 3 seasons
GOLDEN STATE is 4-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DALLAS (19 - 43) at CHICAGO (20 - 41) - 3/2/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) on Friday nights this season.
DALLAS is 7-15 ATS (-9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record this season.
DALLAS is 499-418 ATS (+39.2 Units) in road games since 1996.
DALLAS is 204-163 ATS (+24.7 Units) in road games revenging a loss vs opponent since 1996.
CHICAGO is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-1 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-1 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

DENVER (33 - 28) at MEMPHIS (18 - 42) - 3/2/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 5-4 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
MEMPHIS is 6-3 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (43 - 17) at WASHINGTON (36 - 26) - 3/2/2018, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TORONTO is 190-240 ATS (-74.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) as an underdog this season.
TORONTO is 82-68 ATS (+7.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
TORONTO is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 402-470 ATS (-115.0 Units) in home games since 1996.
WASHINGTON is 151-198 ATS (-66.8 Units) on Friday nights since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 5-5 against the spread versus TORONTO over the last 3 seasons
TORONTO is 7-3 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
7 of 10 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA (34 - 27) at MILWAUKEE (33 - 28) - 3/2/2018, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MILWAUKEE is 5-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MILWAUKEE is 5-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

OKLAHOMA CITY (36 - 27) at PHOENIX (19 - 44) - 3/2/2018, 9:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHOENIX is 5-3 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 5-3 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
5 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (38 - 27) at UTAH (31 - 30) - 3/2/2018, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MINNESOTA is 364-427 ATS (-105.7 Units) in the second half of the season since 1996.
UTAH is 40-25 ATS (+12.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 32-17 ATS (+13.3 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UTAH is 5-5 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 6-4 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
6 of 9 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW YORK (24 - 38) at LA CLIPPERS (32 - 28) - 3/2/2018, 10:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW YORK is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 34-25 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
LA CLIPPERS are 164-206 ATS (-62.6 Units) in home games in the second half of the season since 1996.
LA CLIPPERS are 224-274 ATS (-77.4 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 3-2 against the spread versus LA CLIPPERS over the last 3 seasons
LA CLIPPERS is 4-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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Dunkel

Friday, March 2


I'll post 809/810, 813/814 and 815/816 once the lines are set.


Detroit @ Orlando

Game 801-802
March 2, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Detroit
117.186
Orlando
112.091
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Detroit
by 5
208
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Detroit
by 2 1/2
213 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Detroit
(-2 1/2); Under

Charlotte @ Philadelphia


Game 803-804
March 2, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Charlotte
116.867
Philadelphia
122.908
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Philadelphia
by 6
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Philadelphia
by 3 1/2
215
Dunkel Pick:
Philadelphia
(-3 1/2); Under

Golden State @ Atlanta


Game 805-806
March 2, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Golden State
125.298
Atlanta
115.108
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Golden State
by 10
232
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Golden State
by 13
226
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(+13); Over

Dallas @ Chicago


Game 807-808
March 2, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Dallas
113.287
Chicago
114.117
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago
by 1
217
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Dallas
by 1 1/2
212 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago
(+1 1/2); Over

Toronto @ Washington


Game 811-812
March 2, 2018 @ 8:05 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
124.154
Washington
118.203
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Toronto
by 6
212
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Toronto
by 2 1/2
216 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Toronto
(-2 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Utah


Game 817-818
March 2, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
115.672
Utah
124.598
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Utah
by 9
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Utah
by 5 1/2
210
Dunkel Pick:
Utah
(-5 1/2); Under

New York @ LA Clippers


Game 819-820
March 2, 2018 @ 10:35 pm

Dunkel Rating:
New York
112.309
LA Clippers
124.896
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Clippers
by 12 1/2
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Clippers
by 9
228
Dunkel Pick:
LA Clippers
(-9); Under
 

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March NBA Record:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

03/01/2018 6-2-0 83.00% +1900
 

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Hoop Trends - Friday
March 2, 2018


ATS TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Raptors are 14-0 ATS (11.00 ppg) on the road off a win in which they scored a least 18 fast break points.

OU TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Bulls are 12-0 OU (13.04 ppg) as a dog after they scored fewer than 10 fast break points.

PLAYER TREND OF THE DAY:

-- The Timberwolves are 10-0 OU (13.95 ppg) after Taj Gibson took fewer than 10 shots last game.

CHOICE TREND:

-- The 76ers are 0-11 ATS (-8.23 ppg) with no rest off a road game in which they had fewer than 10 turnovers.

ACTIVE TRENDS:

-- The Thunder are 0-14 ATS (-10.89 ppg) as a favorite with rest after playing as a road favorite.

-- The Bucks are 0-11-2 OU (-9.81 ppg) after being outscored in the paint by double digits last game.
 

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Friday's Best Bet
March 2, 2018


Friday NBA Best Bet
Golden State vs Atlanta


With 10 games on the NBA card tonight, the Golden State/Atlanta game isn't exactly one that sticks out as a must-watch game to many. Everyone has already pencilled in a Golden State victory here as they really are no match for the rebuilding Hawks and oddsmakers would agree, installing the Warriors as -12.5 point road favorites.

But just because a game may not be that entertaining, doesn't mean we can't cash a betting ticket or two, so let's get right to where my money is going on this contest.

Bookmaker.eu Odds: Golden State (-12.5); Total set at 227

The Warriors are wrapping up this three-game east coast trip tonight as they've won the first two rather easily in New York and Washington. Tonight's game isn't expected to be any harder, but the 1-1 ATS record Golden State has in those two previous road games does give Atlanta backers a bit of hope their Hawks can keep it within the number. The problem is, Vegasinsider.com shows less then 10% of ATS bets so far have come the Hawks way, meaning that the number of Hawks bettors out there are few and far between.

The end of a road trip of any length can be a decent spot to fade almost any team in the NBA, but one like Golden State may not always fall into that category. However, they know tonight's game should be a cakewalk, they've got three full days off before they play again, and even then it's a home game against the Brooklyn Nets; another pencilled in win already. Focus could be a bit of a concern for Golden State tonight and 13 points is a lot to win by on the road, even if it is against one of the worst teams in the league. At the same time, it's really tough to trust this Atlanta team to hang around, making the +12.5 points the play I'd be inclined to take on the side, but am passing on it all together.

Instead, I'm looking at tonight's total and the 90%-plus of 'over' action and can't help but think the majority of bettors are going to be wrong tonight. A huge spread like we've got all but eliminates the possibility of OT (always a plus for 'under' tickets), and who's to say this game doesn't turn into one of those 30+ point blowouts for the Warriors that have them joking around in the 4th quarter as both teams bleed away the clock in garbage time. 228 points is a lot to ask, and no matter how good you believe the Warriors are, you're going to need plenty of help from Atlanta to reach that number as well.

Atlanta does produce more offensively at home, but with a 1-4 O/U run in their last five overall, and 3-7 O/U in their last 10, the same lack of trust you've got to have with Atlanta ATS has to bleed over into Atlanta's offensive prospects tonight. Sure, the potential for a lack of focus and just letting their superior talent win the game can suggest that Golden State will look to play a track meet/schoolyard style of game early to take control of the game, but a good pace for an 'over' may not mean a whole lot by the end.

Benches will be cleared to the final guy if it's a blowout, and if it isn't, chances are both teams have played some quality defense at times and force the other into defending late. That's one thing if the total is 220 or less for a Warriors game, but approaching 230 is still a lot to ask.

Golden State is 3-10 O/U in their last 13 games against Eastern Conference teams, while the Hawks are on a 3-13 O/U run after covering a spread their last time out. Atlanta is also on a 1-6 O/U run against teams from the West, and with Atlanta being 5-17 O/U when facing a team that scored 100+ last time out, and 5-16-1 O/U when coming off a rare SU win, all signs point to the 'under' cashing in this game tonight.

I expect this game to come in right around the 220 mark when all is said and done, so at 227 there is plenty of room for error in going against the masses.

Odds per - Bookmaker.eu

Best Bet: Under 227
 

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*********************
March 2, 2018


**************************
Last night's ATS Records
NBA: 2-2 | NCAA BB: 6-18


Only Louisville's coaches, players and fans had a rougher evening than I did since its collapse can't be topped. I came close, though. An incredibly rough night included falling just short on my college lock, which wrapped up a night where little went right. There were a few games were bad breaks and poor free-throw shooting played a role, but mostly, it was just one of those "mama said" nights. Neither guarantee came in and the freebie failed, which has probably only happened one other time in a month's span. The key to bouncing back from a losing night is to bury the past and keep it from lingering. In that's sense, there has to be a next play/next day mentality. Time to put a brutal opening night in a month I expect to dominate in the rear-view. Here is Thursday's recap, complete with some of the highlights (and lowlights):

FRIDAY'S FREE SELECTION

The pick: Clippers/Knicks OVER 226.5

The Clippers will once again be without Danilo Gallinari and Avery Bradley, but have enough depth to handle the Knicks. What they do lack is any hope of playing perimeter defense, since their personnel on that end of the floor isn't adept at picking up Bradley's slack. That makes the Knicks dangerous since they're streaky and certainly capable of filling it up at Stpales, having scored an average of 114 points over the last four. New York has given up an average of 119.3 in losing three of those games. Ride the over.

THURSDAY'S ***************

The pick: Oregon -7.5

Ernie Kent has gotten his Cougars to play their best basketall at home, but there is no question that his team is the less talented than most in the Pac-12 and are up against it with a Ducks team intent on making one final NCAA tournament push arriving in Pullman. After wins over Arizona and ASU wrapped up the slate in Eugene, Dana Altman's team needs to take care of business against both Washington schools and fare well in the conference tournament in order to secure a spot. Look for them to handle the first part of their objective in lopsided fashion. Lay the points and ride Oregon.

Result: The Ducks couldn't get a handle on Robert Franks and Malachi Flynn, which doesn't say much for Dana Altman's adjustments against his predecessor. The cover, barring OT, had no shot to come in once we entered the stretch run, and Oregon failed to avoid the upset altogether when Peyton Pritchard missed a 3-pointer at the buzzer.

THURSDAY'S LOCK

The pick: Heat -3.5

The Lakers have been on the road over the past few days after coming out of the All-Star break with a rout of Dallas, but this will be their toughest test since losing in Minnesota two weeks ago. L.A. will also be playing in its 12th different arena in a 14-game span since late January and has spent the last few days in South Florida, which has its ways of tempting young players. Coming off an incredible Dwyane Wade-led win over Philly, look for the Heat to continue its surge. Lay the 3.5 points and ride Miami, guaranteed.

Result: Any hopes that the Lakers would have a little too much fun with a few days to play in South Florida were instantly squashed in a 20-7 start, but the Heat had wrestled the lead back by the end of the quarter. The Lakers followed up displaying an early pulse by playing the role of rude guest with a 40-point second quarter, paving the way for a 131-113 rout. Isaiah Thomas scored 29 points off the bench in his best outing since returning from hip surgery.

LOCK THAT DIDN'T CLICK

The pick: Northern Colorado/Portland State OVER 165

It seems extremely likely that these teams will wind up on different sides of the Big Sky Tournament bracket, but the Bears clearly have more to play for as they try to catch Eastern Washington for the No. 4 seed that would get them a bye into the quarterfinals, avoiding a first-round date with league doormat Northern Arizona. This will be their first look at Portland State, which presses relentlessly for 40 minutes and has won four of their last five despite the absence of top scorer Deontae North, who is rumored to have left the program. Look for a high-scoring game in this one, since Northern Colorado has managed to pour in 79 points or more in 17 of 21 games since December began. Ride the over, guaranteed.

Result: This game started too slowly and featured brutal free-throw shooting. Ultimately, that's why we ended up a possession or two short in Northern Colorado's 85-78 win. There wasn't a point scored until 2:05 in, which combined with an 8-4 segment to open the game's final 10 minutes, proved to be a killer. The teams missed 16 (!) of 36 free throws. Disappointing.

BAD BEAT BULLETIN

The pick: Monmouth ML -150

These New Jersey-based rivals have never met in a MAAC Tournament and split this season's meetings, each winning at home. This rubber match in Albany is for the right to face this season's state champ, top-seeded Rider, tomorrow. The team most likely to make a surprise run are King Rice's Hawks, who have Micah Seaborn healthy again and have been knocked into this position by some tough breaks that likely have them looking at this MAAC Tournament as an opportunity to make up for everything that's gone wrong. Ride Monmouth on the money line to avoid laying the three points and flirting with a push or a loss if it's tight.

Result: This is where the day swung, in my opinion. After a slow start, the Hawks were up big most of the game and were going to set the tone for the rest of the night. They accomplished that, but it was by completely collapsing. Monmouth left the door open with brutal free-throw shooting and blew a 47-33 edge with seven minutes left when Nick Griffin nailed his fourth straight 3-pointer down the stretch to lift the Peacocks to a wild 60-58 victory thanks to his last one in the closing seconds.


TOTAL RECALL

The pick: Cavs/76ers UNDER 223.5

The Cavs have better defensive personnel than they've had when their run of poor defensive outings became an epidemic, so even though there are still issues, the perception that they simply can't stop anybody is going to be preyed on by line-setters. With Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons able to score efficiently, I think we've seen this number inflated, so ride the under in a game where both teams will be taking precautions in ensuring they don't get embarrassed by locking in defensively.

Result: This looked terrible out of the gate since the 76ers held a 32-29 after the first 12 minutes, but the action slowed down significantly the rest of the way. Aided by an 18-15 third-quarter output, the under was never in doubt down the stretch. Philly pulled the 108-97 upset.

UPSET CITY

The pick: UC-Santa Barbara -7

Forward Jalen Canty has finally served his penance and had his suspension lifted, which means one of the top two-way big men in the Big West will be back to make a difference. His presence makes life so much easier for Max Heidegger and Leland King, not to mention giving the Gauchos a strong option to help contain Gabe Levin. Lay the points and ride UC-Santa Barbara.

Result: The Gauchos didn't play well enough to come anywhere near covering in Canty's return, but a 13-4 run did give them a 69-68 lead with seconds remaining. Like everything else on a wild first day in March, Deishaun Booker pulled off the improbable, zooming down the court for a game-winning layup as Long Beach State won by a single point at the buzzer, cashing as 3-to-1 underdogs.

CARDIAC ATTACK

The pick: Louisville +5, Virginia/'Ville UNDER 124.5

Indy native Kyle Guy should have plenty of support in the stands, but the Cavs' top wing and leading scorer has been nursing a back issue that could keep him from being his normal self. Considering points will be hard to come by, that could make the difference as the Cardinals look to pull off a home upset at the Yum! Center. Ride Louisville plus the points and the under for the in-game parlay.

Result: Louisville covered, but wouldn't have even been in position to notoriously blow this game in the manner in which it did if Ty Jerome hadn't drilled a wild, step-back fadeaway 3-pointer that destroyed our total, pushing the game over. If he misses, the game would've ended at 64-59 if the final few seconds would've been dribbled out. Instead, Jerome drilled a remarkable shot, the Cardinals added two more free throws and then went on to make history by surrendering five points in less than a second due to asinine decision-making.

SWING AND A MISS

The pick: Lafayette +7.5, Cornell/Lafayette OVER 143

Lafayette will look to try and pull the upset of the No. 2-seeded Raiders and should come in confident since they've proven twice that they can play with the Raiders. In Matt Kilnewski and Alex Petrie, the Leopards have to terrific offensive threats that could help pull the outright upset. Back seventh-seeded Lafayette plus the points and ride the over for the in-game parlay in this Patriot League quarterfinal.

Result: The Leopards didn't show up. Klinewski led the team with 12, while Petrie managed just 4 points as Colgate dominated 76-54. Complete whiff.

PROOF OF CLAIRVOYANCE

The pick: Missouri State -1.5

The second MVC quarterfinal going off tonight marks Valpo's first appearance in Arch Madness after coming over from the Horizon League. With a terrific wing like Alize Johnson to contend with, this should be a tough baptism for the Crusaders. Ride Missouri State to win and cover.

Result: This wound up closer than expected, but we'll take any victory in March. That's the takeaway after Day 1. After leading by as many as 14 points in the second half, the Bears had to sweat out the closing stages, but Johnson's 22 points and 18 rebounds were too much. Told you so. Took a lot of L's. Time to bounce back.
 

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FRIDAY, MARCH 2
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


DET at ORL 07:00 PM
ORL +2.5
O 213.5

CHA at PHI 07:00 PM
CHA +3.5
U 215.0

GS at ATL 07:30 PM
GS -13.0
U 227.0


TOR at WAS 08:00 PM
WAS +4.0
O 217.0

IND at MIL 08:00 PM
IND +3.5
U 210.5

DAL at CHI 08:00 PM
DAL -2.0
O 214.0

DEN at MEM 08:00 PM
DEN -7.5
U 213.5


OKC at PHO 09:00 PM
PHO +7.5
O 226.5

NY at LAC 10:30 PM
LAC -8.5
U 226.5

MIN at UTA 10:30 PM
U 208.5
 

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Westbrook scores 43, rallies Thunder past Suns, 124-116
March 3, 2018


PHOENIX (AP) Russell Westbrook had 43 points, including the go-ahead 3-pointer with 56 seconds to play, and the Oklahoma City Thunder scored the final 10 points of the game to escape with a 124-116 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Friday night.

Westbrook also had 14 rebounds and eight assists for the Thunder, who had lost three straight to Phoenix. Paul George scored 20 points.

Devin Booker had 39 points for the Suns and - at 21 years, 123 days - became the third-youngest player in NBA history to reach 4,000 career points. Only LeBron James and Kevin Durant were younger.

WARRIORS 114, HAWKS 109

ATLANTA (AP) - Stephen Curry scored 28 points, including 15 in the final seven minutes of the first half after returning from an ankle injury, and Golden State beat Atlanta for its fifth straight victory.

Curry turned his right ankle and left the game in the first quarter. He returned for his high-scoring second period before returning to the locker room for good in the third. The Warriors said a ''tweaked right ankle'' was the reason Curry would not return.

Kevin Durant also had 28 points for the Warriors, who are unbeaten since the All-Star break.

Kent Bazemore led the Hawks with 29 points.

JAZZ 116, TIMBERWOLVES 108


SALT LAKE CITY (AP) - Rudy Gobert scored a season-high 26 points and grabbed 16 rebounds, Donovan Mitchell also scored 26 points and Utah beat Minnesota in a game that featured three ejections.

Jae Crowder - who was thrown out not long after jawing with Timberwolves coach Tom Thibodeau - and Derrick Favors added 15 points apiece for the Jazz. Utah beat the Timberwolves for the first time this season.

Andrew Wiggins scored 27 points for the Timberwolves and Jeff Teague added 25 before getting ejected for a flagrant foul on Ricky Rubio in Minnesota's second straight loss.

Karl-Anthony Towns finished with just 13 points after picking up two technical fouls and getting ejected before halftime.

76ERS 110, HORNETS 99


PHILADELPHIA (AP) - Joel Embiid had 23 points and 14 rebounds to help Philadelphia pull away from Charlotte down the stretch.

The Sixers won their 13th straight game at the Wells Fargo Center and looked strong in the fourth quarter on the second night of a back-to-back. JJ Redick and newly signed Ersan Ilyasova scored clutch buckets in the final minutes to continue the Sixers' late charge up the East standings.

Kemba Walker scored 31 points and Frank Kaminsky 19 for the Hornets. Nicolas Batum had 14 points, 13 rebounds and eight assists.

RAPTORS 102, WIZARDS 95

WASHINGTON (AP) - DeMar DeRozan scored 23 points, reserve CJ Miles added 20 and Toronto beat Washington.

The Raptors have won 10 of their last 11 games, including a season-high four straight on the road.

Miles scored 11 points in the second half and was 6 of 9 from 3-point range in the game as the Raptors' bench outscored the Wizards' reserves 50-15.

Jonas Valenciunas and Fred VanVleet added 12 points apiece for Toronto.

Otto Porter Jr. led Washington with 24 points on 9-of-12 shooting and Bradley Beal rebounded from an eight-point effort Wednesday against Golden State to finish with 23.

PACERS 103, BUCKS 96

MILWAUKEE (AP) - Victor Oladipo had 21 points, and Indiana nearly blew a 17-point lead in the middle of a mistake-laden fourth quarter before holding off Milwaukee.

With his team trailing by five, Milwaukee's Khris Middleton missed a corner 3-pointer off an inbounds play with 8.9 seconds left. Bojan Bogdanovic hit two foul shots at the other end to seal it and hand the Bucks their fourth straight loss.

Lance Stephenson added 16 points for Indiana, and Bogdanovic had 14 after going 12 of 13 from the foul line.

Middleton led all scorers with 30 points, and Giannis Antetokounmpo added 24 points and 10 rebounds for the Bucks.

NUGGETS 102, GRIZZLIES 102


MEMPHIS, Tenn. (AP) - Gary Harris scored 26 points, hitting a key basket with just under a minute left, and Denver weathered a fourth-quarter rally to beat Memphis.

Harris was 11 of 18 from the field to help the Nuggets snap a two-game skid. Will Barton added 24 points, and Paul Millsap added 15 as Denver sent the Grizzlies to their 12th straight loss.

Marc Gasol led Memphis with 22 points and nine rebounds, Jarell Martin had 16 points, and Dillon Brooks 13 points.

Denver held onto the eighth spot in the Western Conference playoff. The Nuggets entered the night a half-game ahead of the Los Angeles Clippers for the final postseason spot.

CLIPPERS 128, KNICKS 105

LOS ANGELES (AP) - DeAndre Jordan had 19 points and 20 rebounds, Lou Williams scored 21 points and Los Angeles used a dominating third quarter to beat New York.

Austin Rivers and Montrezl Harrell also had 19 points apiece for the Clippers, who outscored New York 28-8 to start the third quarter after trailing by three at halftime.

The Knicks have lost three consecutive games and 11 of their last 12.

Enes Kanter had 18 points and 14 rebounds for the Knicks. Tim Hardaway Jr. scored 17 points and Courtney Lee had 15.

MAGIC 115, PISTONS 106, OT


ORLANDO, Fla. (AP) - Aaron Gordon had 27 points and 13 rebounds to help Orlando stop a seven-game losing streak.

Nikola Vucevic added 22 points and 12 rebounds, and D.J. Augustin had 20 points and nine assists for the Magic. Evan Fournier scored 17, including seven in the extra period.

James Ennis and Reggie Bullock led Detroit with 21 points apiece. Blake Griffin, Dwight Buycks and Anthony Tolliver had 12 each for the slumping Pistons, who have lost seven of nine.

Fournier scored the first six points in overtime, giving Orlando a 110-104 lead going into the final two minutes.

BULLS 108, MAVERICKS 100

CHICAGO (AP) - Bobby Portis scored 22 points and made three straight shots during the decisive run late in the fourth quarter to help Chicago roar back and beat Dallas.

Portis had 15 in the second half and Chicago used a 16-4 run in the final five minutes to end a five-game losing streak.

Kris Dunn finished with 18 points and rookie Lauri Markkanen had 17 points and 12 rebounds as Chicago won for just the third time in 16 games.

Harrison Barnes scored 26 points and rookie Dennis Smith Jr. had 25 as Dallas lost for the 13th time in 16 games. The Mavericks have dropped six straight on the road.
 

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Saturday?s 6-pack


Odds to win college basketball national title:

5-1: Michigan State, Villanova, Duke

6-1: Virginia

10-1: Purdue, Kansas

15-1: North Carolina

20-1: Wichita State

22-1: Michigan

Quote of the Day
?I?m strictly a quarterback. Whoever likes me at quarterback, thats where I?m going.?
Lamar Jackson

Saturday?s quiz
Who was basketball coach at North Carolina before Roy Williams?

Friday?s quiz
NBA?s New Orleans Pelicans have traded their first round draft pick four of the last five years; the one player they did draft, they later traded to Sacramento? Buddy Hield.

Thursday?s quiz
Benjamin Franklin?s picture is on the $100 bill.

**************************

Saturday?s List of 13: Clearing out a cluttered mind??

13) Virginia 67, Louisville 66? Someone on Twitter Thursday night described this as the worst loss by any team, EVER!!!

? Louisville led by 4 with 0:05 left- they fouled a Virginia player shooting a 3 with 0:01 left.
? Virginia kid made two of three FT?s, Cardinals still lead by 2.
? Louisville has ball out-of-bounds with 0:00.9 left, up 2, but they can?t run baseline
? Louisville inbounder runs baseline- thats a turnover.
? Virginia banks in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to win the game. Oy.

12) Arizona State 84, California 53? Shooters get scholarship offers, and this is why; Cal was 0-18 on the arc in this game. Zero. for. 18. They were 19-78 in previous four games, so that is 19.8% over their last five games.

Kids who are prolific shooters get scholarships, because there aren?t that many of them.

11) Michigan 77, Nebraska 58? I have no sympathy for bubble teams that lose their first conference tournament game. Cornhuskers are 22-10 but will likely miss the NCAA?s- their non-conference schedule was ranked #272. Nebraska had Thursday off while Michigan played an OT game, but the Wolverines won this game easily.

10) Penn State 69, Ohio State 68? Buckeyes are 0-3 vs Penn State this year, 15-1 against the rest of their league. According to the Bracketology people on Twitter, Penn State still needs one more win to get into the field of 68.

9) St Peter?s 66, Rider 55? #9-seed Peacocks upset top-seeded Rider in beautiful downtown Albany. Broncs had won 15 of their last 17 games coming in. Such is March.

Quinnipiac 72, Canisius 69? Top two seeds in MAAC tourney are gone; whoever wins the conference title Monday night can pack their bags to Dayton for the play-in game.

8) Murray State 70, Jacksonville State 63? Racers were up 20 points, blew the lead, but then they scored last eight points of the game to advance to the OVC finals.

7) Football/baseball crossovers Friday:
? Tim Tebow batted cleanup for the Mets Friday; he went 1-3 as their DH.
? Russell Wilson pinch-hit for Aaron Judge and struck out in his only AB for the Bronx Bombers.

6) Baseball trivia: Last season, 99 switch-hitters appeared in major league games.

5) Bradley 63, Drake 61? Drake didn?t score for last 3:28 of this quarter-final game in the Missouri Valley Conference? they led by 8 at the half.

4) Davidson 63, Rhode Island 61? Rams started season 21-3, then went 2-3 in their last five games. Now they need to make a run in A-14 tourney to avoid being a suspect in NCAA?s.

Trivia: Davidson has players from seven different countries.

3) Tex-Arlington 85, Texas State 82? Arlington led 78-70, blew the lead, then Kevin Hervey drained a long 3-pointer with 0:00.9 left to hand Texas State their ninth loss in a row.

2) Princeton 78, Brown 63? With one night left in the season, there are three teams tied for the 4th and final spot in next week?s Ivy League tournament.

1? Liberty 69, NC-Asheville 64? Big upset in Big South, as top-seeded Asheville is shown the door. Liberty plays #2-seed Radford in the Big South final.
 

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March NBA Record:

DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD

03/02/2018 9-10-0 47.37% -10.00

03/01/2018 6-2-0 83.00% +1900
 

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NO TOUTS OR OTHER SITES PICKS, DO NOT POST IN ANY THREAD IF NOT YOUR PICKS AND NAMES HAVE TO BE EDITED OUT : ADMIN
 

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Saturday, March 3


Magic won three of last four games with Memphis; Grizzlies are 3-2 vs spread in last five visits here, four of which went over total. Memphis lost its last ten games; they?re 3-6 in last nine games as road underdogs. four of last six series games went over. Orlando lost seven of their last eight games; they?re 1-8 vs spread as home favorites this year. Six of their last ten games stayed under.

Cleveland won six of last eight games with Denver; last three series games went over. Nuggets are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to Ohio. Denver won 8 of its last 11 games; they?re 2-5-1 in last eight games as road underdogs. Nine of their last ten games went over. Cavaliers won six of their last nine games; they?re 1-7 in last eight games as home favorites. Four of their last five games stayed under.

Detroit/Miami split their last ten games; Pistons are 2-3 vs spread in last five visits to South Beach. Six of last seven series games went over total. Detroit lost seven of its last nine games; they are 1-7 in last eight games as road underdogs. Under is 3-1-3 in their last seven games. Heat lost seven of their last ten games; they?re 3-6 in last nine games as home favorites. Eight of their last ten games went over.

Rockets won six of last nine games with Boston; last ten series games stayed under the total. Celtics are 2-2 vs spread in last four visits to Houston. Boston won its last four games; they?re 9-2 vs spread as road underdogs. Over is 5-0-1 in their last six games. Rockets won their last 14 games; they?re 2-5 vs spread in last seven home games. Four of their last five games stayed under the total.

Lakers won last two games with San Antonio, after losing previous eight meetings; LA is 2-2-1 vs spread in last five visits to the Alamo. Seven of last nine series games went over. Lakers won their last four games, are 10-6 in last 16 games as road favorites. Over is 6-0-1 in their last seven games. San Antonio lost seven of its last nine games; they?re 2-5 in last seven games as home favorites. Eight of their last ten games went over.

Road team won six of last seven Utah-Sacramento games; Jazz 4-2 vs spread in last six visits to Sacramento. Four of last six series games stayed under. Utah won 12 of its last 14 games; they?re 4-6 as road favorites. Four of their last five games stayed under the total. Kings lost seven of their last nine games; they?re 2-7 in last nine games as home underdogs. Over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

Portland won six of its last seven games with Oklahoma City; Thunder is 1-4 vs spread in last five visits to Oregon. Six of last nine series games went over total. OKC won five of its last six games; they?re 5-3 as road underdogs. Five of their last seven games went over total. Blazers won their last five games (4-1 vs spread); they?re 6-2 in last eight games as home favorites. Three of their last four games stayed under.
 

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NBA

Saturday, March 3


------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
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MEMPHIS @ ORLANDO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Memphis's last 13 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Orlando's last 5 games when playing at home against Memphis
Orlando is 15-6 ATS in its last 21 games

DENVER @ CLEVELAND
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Denver's last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 19-6 SU in its last 25 games at home

DETROIT @ MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 7 games when playing Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games

BOSTON @ HOUSTON
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games when playing on the road against Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Boston's last 11 games when playing Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 5 games when playing at home against Boston

LA LAKERS @ SAN ANTONIO
LA Lakers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of LA Lakers's last 7 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of San Antonio's last 8 games
San Antonio is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing LA Lakers

OKLAHOMA CITY @ PORTLAND
Oklahoma City is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Oklahoma City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Oklahoma City

UTAH @ SACRAMENTO
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Utah is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Sacramento's last 5 games
 

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Pro Basketball Trend Report

MEMPHIS (18 - 43) at ORLANDO (19 - 43) - 3/3/2018, 7:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ORLANDO is 3-2 against the spread versus MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
ORLANDO is 3-2 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DENVER (34 - 28) at CLEVELAND (36 - 25) - 3/3/2018, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 176-224 ATS (-70.4 Units) when playing on back-to-back days since 1996.
CLEVELAND is 19-41 ATS (-26.1 Units) in all games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) when the total is greater than or equal to 220 this season.
CLEVELAND is 10-36 ATS (-29.6 Units) as a favorite this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-24 ATS (-20.4 Units) in home games this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in non-conference games this season.
CLEVELAND is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more this season.
CLEVELAND is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
CLEVELAND is 7-17 ATS (-11.7 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-1 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND is 3-1 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

DETROIT (29 - 33) at MIAMI (32 - 30) - 3/3/2018, 7:30 PM

Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) in the second half of the season this season.
DETROIT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents this season.
MIAMI is 80-62 ATS (+11.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 41-27 ATS (+11.3 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 9-18 ATS (-10.8 Units) in home games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 6-5 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 6-5 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

BOSTON (44 - 19) at HOUSTON (48 - 13) - 3/3/2018, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 36-24 ATS (+9.6 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as an underdog this season.
BOSTON is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in road games this season.
BOSTON is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) on Saturday games over the last 2 seasons.
BOSTON is 15-7 ATS (+7.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
BOSTON is 261-211 ATS (+28.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1996.
HOUSTON is 50-69 ATS (-25.9 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games against Atlantic division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games in non-conference games this season.
HOUSTON is 15-28 ATS (-15.8 Units) in home games revenging a loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 11-23 ATS (-14.3 Units) in home games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON is 4-1 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 3-2 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

LA LAKERS (27 - 34) at SAN ANTONIO (36 - 26) - 3/3/2018, 9:00 PM

There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 5-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
SAN ANTONIO is 7-2 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
7 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

UTAH (32 - 30) at SACRAMENTO (19 - 43) - 3/3/2018, 10:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UTAH is 41-25 ATS (+13.5 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game over the last 3 seasons.
SACRAMENTO is 27-46 ATS (-23.6 Units) in home games on Saturday games since 1996.
SACRAMENTO is 59-86 ATS (-35.6 Units) in home games off an upset win as an underdog since 1996.

Head-to-Head Series History
SACRAMENTO is 4-4 against the spread versus UTAH over the last 3 seasons
UTAH is 5-3 straight up against SACRAMENTO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 season.

OKLAHOMA CITY (37 - 27) at PORTLAND (36 - 26) - 3/3/2018, 10:00 PM

Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 25-38 ATS (-16.8 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. division opponents this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-19 ATS (-11.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more since 1996.
PORTLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in March games over the last 2 seasons

Head-to-Head Series History
PORTLAND is 6-4 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
PORTLAND is 7-3 straight up against OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

Cnotes53

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NBA (PROFESSIONAL)

DUNKEL'S HIGHLIGHTED GAME


Boston at Houston - Saturday March 3, 2018


The Celtics head to Houston tonight to face a Rockets team that is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games versus Atlantic Division opponents. Boston is the pick (+8 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Rockets favored by only 4 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Boston (+8 1/2).

SATURDAY MARCH 3, 2018
Memphis
@
Orlando

Game 501-502
March 3, 2018 @ 7:05 pm

Dunkel Rating: Memphis
0
Orlando
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Memphis

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Memphis

Dunkel Pick: Memphis
( );

Denver
@
Cleveland

Game 503-504
March 3, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating: Denver
118.442
Cleveland
124.763
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Cleveland
by 6 1/2
223
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Cleveland
by 4 1/2
228 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland
(-4 1/2); Under

Detroit
@
Miami

Game 505-506
March 3, 2018 @ 7:35 pm

Dunkel Rating: Detroit
115.623
Miami
118.197
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Miami
by 2 1/2
209
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Miami
by 5 1/2
204
Dunkel Pick: Detroit
(+5 1/2); Over

Boston
@
Houston

Game 507-508
March 3, 2018 @ 8:35 pm

Dunkel Rating: Boston
121.365
Houston
125.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Houston
by 4 1/2
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Houston
by 8 1/2
216
Dunkel Pick: Boston
(+8 1/2); Over

LA Lakers
@
San Antonio

Game 509-510
March 3, 2018 @ 9:05 pm

Dunkel Rating: LA Lakers
00.000
San Antonio
00.000
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: LA Lakers

Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: LA Lakers

Dunkel Pick: LA Lakers
( );

Utah
@
Sacramento

Game 511-512
March 3, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating: Utah
121.652
Sacramento
111.572
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Utah
by 10
199
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Utah
by 6 1/2
205
Dunkel Pick: Utah
(-6 1/2); Under

Oklahoma City
@
Portland

Game 513-514
March 3, 2018 @ 10:05 pm

Dunkel Rating: Oklahoma City
119.271
Portland
121.329
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total: Portland
by 2
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total: Portland
by 4 1/2
213
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City
(+4 1/2); Over
 

Cnotes53

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Inside the Paint - Saturday
March 3, 2018


(Straight Up ? SU, Against the Spread ? ATS)

Game of the Night - Boston (44-19 SU, 37-24-2 ATS) at Houston (48-13 SU, 32-28-1 ATS)
Opening Odds: Rockets -7 ?, Total 217


It?s been just over two months since Boston pulled off an improbable comeback and defeated Houston 99-98 on Dec. 28 from TD Garden. The Celtics trailed by as many as 26 points and wound up winning as two-point home underdogs on a hook shot from All-Star Al Horford. Prior to his game-winner, Marcus Smart of the Celtics drew not one but two offensive fouls on James Harden of the Rockets as they were trying to close out the game.

Houston and Harden felt like they got jobbed by the refs and they certainly had a fair argument. One official missed the game with a sore back which left two guys to officiate the game on their own.

"You can't have two officials in a professional game," Harden said. "There was a lot of no-calls that needed to be called because it changed the dynamic of the game. You got fast-break points, no calls, turnovers or whatever the case may be. This is a professional game on national TV. It can't happen."

Along with one less official, bettors should note that the Rockets were also without Chris Paul and Clint Capela due to injuries. Those guys have been a huge part of Houston?s success this season and the club has produced an eye-opening 32-1 record when the aforementioned duo is in the lineup with Harden.

The Rockets enter this game with a 14-game winning streak and they?ve covered all four of their wins since the All-Star break.

Boston has also gone 4-0 (3-1 ATS) since the break and that?s a good sign considering Brad Stevens and company closed the first-half with a 1-4 record. The defense (103.5 PPG) has looked a tad better during the winning streak and closer to their season average, 99.9 points per game, which is ranked 2nd best in the NBA.

The unit will be tested against Houston?s second-ranked scoring offense (113.8 PPG) on Saturday but Boston will have plenty of confidence to counter the juggernaut. In three games against the top two-scoring attacks this season, they held the Warriors to 88 and 109 points and mentioned above, Houston was kept in check as well.

That defensive effort in late December wasn?t an anomaly for the Celtics and they appear to have Houston?s number. Since Stevens started coaching the Celtics in 2013, the club has held Houston to 102.3 PPG. Make a note that while Houston is known for its offense, the scoring defense has improved vastly this season (104.9 PPG) compared to last year?s campaign (109.2 PPG).

Total bettors should note that the ?under? has gone 10-0-1 in the last 11 encounters in this series and Saturday?s number is low for Houston?s standards.

Some bettors might believe the point-spread on Houston is too high, especially when you look at its weak production for bettors at home (24-6 SU, 12-17-1 ATS) plus Boston has been a great on the road (21-8 SU, 20-9 ATS).

You certainly shouldn?t overlook those results but a lot of Houston?s struggles versus the spread have come from large numbers. Get this?the Rockets are 28-8 SU and 24-12 ATS (67%) this year when favored by nine points or less.

ABC will provide national coverage of this game at 8:30 p.m. ET.

Zero Days Rest

Six teams will be playing on no rest Saturday and listed below are their records when facing back-to-back spots this season and notable trends as well. Five of the six will be on the road with the exception of the Magic, who are playing the Grizzlies and they?re also facing two games in two days.

Memphis (3-9 SU, 7-5 ATS, 8-3-1 O/U) at Orlando: Two of the three wins for Memphis came on the road and they enter this game on a 5-1 ATS and ?over? run in their last six on no rest.

Orlando (4-6 SU, 5-5 ATS, 5-5 O/U) vs. Memphis: Only two of the Magic?s 10 back-to-back games were played at the Amway Center and they won and covered both contests by double digits.

Denver (3-8 SU, 5-5-1 ATS, 7-4 O/U) at Cleveland: The Nuggets are 1-5 in their last six on no rest, allowing an average of 112.3 PPG. The lone win (123-113) came at the Suns on Feb. 10.

Detroit (5-5 SU, 4-5-1 ATS, 4-5-1 O/U) at Miami: Pistons have allowed 121, 118 and 123 in their last three games on zero days rest and not surprisingly they?ve gone 0-3 both SU and ATS.

Utah (9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS) at Sacramento: The Jazz have been one of the top clubs on no rest and they enter this game with a 4-0 run but make a note that all four of their losses in these situations came on the road.

Oklahoma City (6-5 SU, 6-5 ATS, 6-5 O/U) at Portland: The point-spread has not mattered in any of the 11 games for the Thunder, which could have you taking OKC on the money-line (+150) or having less hesitation to lay the short number with Portland (-4).

Fearless Predictions

Since I started this section, it?s safe to say that it?s treated us well lately even though Minnesota ran out of gas on Thursday at Portland. For new followers to the ?Inside the Paint? installments, my handicapping technique always starts with the opening number before weighing heavily on current form, seasonal trends and situational spots. I believe if something looks too easy, it usually never is. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end ? Good Luck!

Over 227 ? Denver-Cleveland

Even though the Cavs have watched the ?under? go 4-1 since the All-Star break, this matchup sets up perfect for their offense. Denver faces a back-to-back spot and its defense has been much worse on the road this season. The last three meetings in this series have gone ?over? and Cleveland has posted 124 and 125 in its last two home encounters against the Nuggets. If you don?t believe Denver will have the gas to keep up, the Cavs team total (116) seems more than doable.

Boston +8 over Houston

The Rockets have gone 18-5 SU and 9-13-1 ATS versus the East this season and that includes an 8-2 record at home. However, they?ve gone 1-8-1 against the spread in those 10 games and two of the losses came to Atlantic Division foes ? the Raptors and 76ers. The Celtics are a respectable 5-3 SU and 6-2 ATS on the road against the West and the three losses were by a combined eight points. Houston certainly has the firepower to run anybody out of the gym but I?ll fade the public and back the better defense over the better offense in this spot. Grab the points and if you?re interested, get a small taste of the money-line as well (+280).

San Antonio (-4) over L.A. Lakers

No overnight line on this game due to the ?doubtful? status of LaMarcus Aldridge (ankle) but San Antonio opened -4 this morning. With or without him, I?d still lean to the home squad. The Lakers have once again managed to put together four straight wins but they?ve never won five in a row this season. Does that happen tonight? I?m saying ?No? and even though the Spurs aren?t in great form (2-7 L9), there has to be a sense of urgency for this matchup and I can?t see them dropping four in a row at home. The Lakers have been shooting lights out and that?s been covering up their inferior defense. If those outside shots don?t fall, they could easily get run here.
 

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SATURDAY, MARCH 3
GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


MEM at ORL
ORL -6.5
U 211.5


DEN at CLE 07:30 PM
DEN +4.5
O 228.5

DET at MIA 07:30 PM
MIA -5.5
O 203.5

BOS at HOU 08:30 PM
HOU -8.5
U 213.0


LAL at SA 09:00 PM
LAL +5.5
O 218.0

UTA at SAC 10:00 PM
UTA -7.5
U 202.0


OKC at POR 10:00 PM
POR -5.5
U 214.5
 
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