College Football buys for 2020

[RBD]

No fake lines that aren't available when posted (and in some cases never were),
no disappearing record BS,
and no weak-ass, insecure, "Hey, look at me! Love me, want me, NEED ME!" padded record crap.
Just picks in a few different situational spots I track,
analysis, stats, when-to-buy strategy, and money management tips.
And hopefully, by season's end, more W's than L's.

I employ a few different systems I've developed over the years.
I will list all games that fit the parameters to qualify as a play.
I don't buy/recommend all the spots that qualify.
Why post the ones I don't buy?
Record keeping purposes, and in case anyone is looking for opinions on that particular game.

Play #1 is a contrarian play - when a certain % of indicators and recent history show the game to favor the Over, I bet the other way and take it Under. If everything points to an Under, I play the Over.

Play #2 is a "temperature" play - tracking hot teams vs cold, based on certain %'s.

I track 7-8 systems but as most will grade out to approximately .500 I don't post them all.
I'll add and drop systems as the season progresses and I isolate something that gives me an edge.

For this week:

Play #1: USA/USM Ov
Play #2: Navy

No buys for me yet. The best # on tonight's game has passed, opened 51', now at 57,57',58.
I'm not going to take an Over in a game where I missed the best # by a TD.
Historically, (I have about 15 years worth of data on this play) Unders are usually profitable, Overs tend to break even. I may fade this game and take the Under.

A note on units. To each his own, but I am a BIG proponent of betting the same amount on every game.
It is difficult enough to stay above 53% without varying unit sizes.
That said, I do make two types of bets using the same unit size within each: investment buys, and TV/Action buys for entertainment purposes. I like to yell at my TV. It amuses me. But I learned years ago that my record on TV games is not as good as my record on games I bet because I have data that favors a play, rather than a bet made just because I was going to watch it.

The virus adds a new dimension to handicapping this year (as if it isn't already challenging enough.)
How will scoring be affected by empty stadiums?
No one knows. I'm taking a wait and see attitude.
I'd like to get some data in before jumping into investment buys.

Last word. I have different goals.
Goal #1 is Do Not Lose Money.
Some will say, "What kind of goal is that? The goal should be to make money!"
It's called a realistic goal. Fact is, MOST bettors lose. They are loathe to admit it (especially on the internet, where almost EVERYBODY wins!) but it is a fact.

If you don't play to win money, then why bet?
I didn't say I don't wager to win, I said it's not my first goal.
Goal #2 is to win.
Goal #3 is The Grail - 67%.

But there's another reason I bet, and share my picks, thoughts, and advice.
It's a chess game to me - as an oddsmaker, can my #'s beat the books?
And I share because I am altruistic by nature. If you're a winning, experienced bettor, congrats.
I post for newbies and people who are struggling, to, hopefully, help them out.

Back with any buys I make.
Good luck to all of you this season . . .

ALL bets small $ unless noted as investment buy.

Update #1: The total on tonight's USA/USM game is dropping, likely buy back's coming in from guys who bet Over the opening # of 51' and are looking for middles; 56 still readily available, the common # at most houses. I bought the Under.

 

[JustFootball]

Thanks RBD--I like your honesty and perspective.

Look forward to your picks this year. Hope you do well. :toast:

 

[RBD]

JustFootball - I find your icon disturbing, where are his arms??!!
Born without them? Industrial accident?
And where's his neck? His head's just floating above his body!

Just kidding.

Thanks for stopping by for a visit, and for your take on my wagering philosophy.

There is, in fact, nothing wrong with losing an acceptable amount of money betting on sports, if it's disposable income ("disposable" defined as not the kid's college fund or next month's mortgage or rent.)
If I go to a nice restaurant, the bill for dinner for two is about $100, and more with a nice bottle of wine.
That's okay, it's an expenditure for entertainment purposes.
Wagering on sports can also be for entertainment purposes.
And, if done properly, it can be a hobby that also has a nice payout at the end of the season.

The problem begins when someone has a winning season or two, and they think they can make a living at it.
They quit their job, move to Vegas (in the old days anyway, before it became legal nationally), and proceed to lose their life savings. And, sadly, sometimes they lose even more, like their family.
I've seen it, more times than I care to remember, when I ran a sportbook. It's one of the reasons I left the industry. And with legalized gambling, I expect it happens even more frequently these days, as people no longer have to relocate to Vegas to make a run at it.

Again, fact - most bettors lose.
One of my sayings, regarding sportsbetting is:
"Those that try to buck the odds often end up fucked by the odds."

Keep it simple, have fun, and when managing your wagering funds remember the physician's oath,
"Primum non nocere." First - Do No Harm.

Good luck to you this season . . .

 

[hawkeye]

gl this year RBD--:0008

 

[gridman]

Same Philosophy

Same Philosophy

Long time member but normally on the "quiet" side as I don't consider myself to be a good handicapper. But, I really do enjoy placing bets on sports. You might say it's my hobby. I completely agree with your take on gambling and I have never gone overboard. Have been gambling since the mid 80's and I can honestly say that I have not had a losing season (knock wood). "Worst" year was when I only ended up at around +$183. Of course I am a small bettor as my betting amounts range from $5 to $50. I consider a $100 play as a HUGE bet for me.

I frequent several web sites and only recently noticed your input and I just love it, especially your analysis. Keep up the good work. BTW, my favorite betting sport is NCAA football followed by the NFL and MLB.

GM:toast:

 

[Coach Woody]

Nice hit last night. Thanks

Glad I found you over here from the nba thread RBD.

 

[RBD]

Hawkeye, Gridman, and Coach Woody,
Thanks for stopping in, and thanks for the comments.
Good luck to all of you this season.

Recap: It wasn't pretty but got a W with USA/USM Under.
Had Un 56, game was at 53 with a minute and a half left on the clock.
S. Miss was down by 10 pts and had the ball at their own 25.
USA, up by two scores, is laying back in the prevent defense.
You could smell trouble coming.
Sure enough, just FOUR plays later it's first and goal at the 6 yard line, with 36 seconds left.
They get to 3rd and goal at the three yard line, but my boys from USA come through with a sack,
and an incomplete pass on fourth down seals the victory.
Like I said, it wasn't pretty, but it goes in the Win column.
Record 1-0.


Here are the two system plays that were active:
Play #1 (Contrarian play): USA/USM Ov L
Play #2 (Temperature play): Navy L

A note on record keeping in my logbook.
I marked USA/USM as a loss, but it could have gone in either way.
If you bought it early in the week at the opening 51', or when it moved to 52/52', it did go Over and you had a winner. It went all the way up to 58, closed around 56.

So, how do you chart it, a W or L?

I marked it as a loss because for most of the week the # was above 53, so betting the Over was a loser.
I use the charts in my logbook to make decisions as to whether I will buy a game or not, so if my numbers are not accurate I'm only screwing myself.
I think charting it as a loser is the fair way to go with this game.

Navy also lost, so both systems start out 0-1.

As I stated in an earlier post, Unders are usually the best spot for these plays, and after seeing that Overs started last seasaon 0-2, and both were weekday night games like USA/USM, and getting a good number at 5 pts higher than the opening #, I had no problem fading the spot and buying the Under.

This week's spots:

Char/App St Un 59'
Ark St/K St Ov 54
Clem/Wake F Ov 60

Army -19
Coastal Car +7
UL Laff +11'

Got the first Un of the season in the Contrarian spot,
and three plays, a Fav and two Dogs, in the Temp spot.

Not that it matters, but Char was in the Contrarian spot three times LY (Last Year) all Unders, and all three stayed Under. App is not on my charts for LY.
I'd like to be more selective this year due to all the new, unknown factors, but what the hell, I'm on house dime with a W from last week, and this system has been good to me through the years, so I bought Char Un 59'.
Until the Temp play puts up a winner or two, I'll look to fade those, same with the Overs in the Contrarian play.
But for now, just the one buy.

Buys:
Char/App St Un 59'.

 

[RBD]

Already have the App State game in my pocket, not because I like the number but because this system has been good to me over the years, and it's the first one of year so I have to buy it.

I actually don't like the number, I make it seven points higher. App State almost scored this many points all by themselves in last year's meeting (56-41.)

I was going to wait till the App State game ended before I made a decision on the 12:30 Ark State game, but they move the start time up to 9 a.m.

Until one of these Overs gets a win I'm going to keep fading them. The line opened 57', sat at 54' for most of the week. I waited to buy this spot thinking there'd be some buy back to the Over from people who bought the opening number Under as they look for a middle.

Waiting was the right thing to do, I picked up an extra point. I bought Ark St/K St Un 55'.

Buys
Char/App St Un 59'
Ark St Un 55'

 

[RBD]

Recap: Hit with my best play, on an Under in this system, missed with the late add on play Ark St Un.
Record 2-1.

Systems had a great day at 5-1, including two Dogs (LA Laff & Coastal Car) winning SU.
Yes, they started 0-2 in week one, but could have been 1-1 based on grading of the USA/USM game.
Last week had a few more games, gave me a better idea of how this season might look.
Anyway, it was good to see the first Under of the season come home a winner.
Record 5-3.
Play #1 (Ov/Un Contrarian spots) 2-2*, Ov 1-2*, Un 1-0.
Play #2 (Temp spots) 3-1, Favs 1-1, Dogs 2-0.

Back with this weeks spots after I finish 'capping.

 

[RBD]

A lot to choose from this week.

Play #1:
Tulsa/Ok St Ov 65'/66
USF/ND Ov 50
Fla Atl/Geo South Un 50'
Troy/Mid Tenn St Un 65
Wake F/NC St Ov 54'/53
LA Tech/S Miss Ov 57'


Play #2:
La Laff -17
Fla Atl -5'
UNC - 28/27
La Tech +5

Records on these spots:
Play #1 (Ov/Un Contrarian spots) 2-2*, Ov 1-2*, Un 1-0.
Play #2 (Temp spots) 3-1, Favs 1-1, Dogs 2-0.

La Laff was in Play #2 last week, as a Dog, won SU. They're a fav this week and a big one at -17.

Wake Forest was in Play #1 as an Over last week and lost.
I like them in this spot, if the line continues to drop in my favor I may buy it.

Dogs in Play #2 are 2-0, La Tech worth a look.
I don't like that this is Tech's first game while S Miss already played one game to get the rust off.
I do like that in that game S Miss looked lousy, losing SU as a 13 pt Fav.
I don't like that they have 16 days off since that game to work out the kinks.
I'll watch the line; may play it.

I have no feel for which way the line will move in the two Unders, so I bought them this morning.
Will update with any additional buys I make.

Buys:
Fla Atl/Geo South Un 50'
Troy/Mid Tn St Un 65

 

[RBD]

Update. Post above was made Tue morning at 10:29 am.
By noon, 50, 50', 51 could be found on Fla Atl game.
By 2 pm it was down to 47'.
Reason - Owls cancelled practice Tue.

 

[Coach Woody]

Do you still like it at that number or lay off?

 

[RBD]

The game was cancelled this morning, Coach, so no play. But, if it wasn't cancelled, what would the answer to your question be?
I don't know.
If only I kept a log book, one that charted opening and closing lines, and final score results, then I would be able to answer your question.

Wait! I DO keep such a log book!

A simple look at last year's charts shows that there were 14 Unders in Play #1 where the total dropped 2 pts or more. The record on those Unders was 10-4.
So, yes, I would say the game was still bettable at that lower number.
This info will come in handy throughout the season as that situation pops up again.

I can also tell how many games the total on an Under went higher and if they won or lost,
and how many Overs went higher, or lower, and won or lost.
Know how I can tell?
Because I keep a log book!

(Anyone who hasn't read any of my stuff has by now figured out that YES, I am a BIG proponent of keeping a log book to chart your plays. You spend hours tracking the play of teams you're looking to bet on - how they do as a Fav, a Dog, in Unders or Overs, their history vs an opponent, etc, etc - but you don't look at YOUR OWN record and history? What's YOUR record on Overs? Unders? Dogs? Favs? Handicapping yourself is just as, if not more important, than tracking any team's play.)

Anyway . . .

I'm going to replace the cancelled G Southern game with a buy on Over in Tulsa/Ok St at 66.
It's in Play #1, which is 1-2 this season on Overs.
With a total of 60 or higher, Ok St has surpassed this game's # (66) in 28 of 40 games (70%) dating back to 2010. It's 66 all across the board right now, and I don't see it getting any lower tomorrow, barring any Corona crap. I believe there's a higher chance it goes up, so I bought it now.

Buys:
Fla Atl/Geo South Un 50 (Cancelled)
Troy/Mid Tn St Un 65
Tulsa/Ok St Ov 66

Update: I waited to buy the Notre Dame spot, hoping it would drop from the 50 it was at when I posted it. I don't know if it's going to get any lower than 48, and I think Notre Dame will score most of this number if not all of it by themselves.
Adding S. Fla/ND Ov 48.

Buys:
Fla Atl/Geo South Un 50 (Cancelled)
Troy/Mid Tn St Un 65
Tulsa/Ok St Ov 66
S. Fla/ND Ov 48

 

[RBD]

Watching the game, Middle Tennessee cannot stop Troy.
The Army loss was no fluke; this team has no defense.
Live bet Troy pk -120

 

[RBD]

Had to put that adjustment bet in, only reason the score was 7-7 is because Troy had two turnovers when they were looking like they're going to put up 7 each time.
They just scored again easily, 14-7.
Mid Tennessee looks like the same team that played Army, no improvements, the Under does not look good so I had to do an in-game adjustment. Waiting for the live lines to come up again, may play the adjusted total Over or bump Troy again depending on the numbers.

Update: Numbers came out late, 65', not enough time to put a bet in and post here. If I can get a number close to that at halftime I'm taking Over second half. Will update if I do.

Update: A FG by Troy, up by 10 now.
64' is available, no bet yet, Mid Ten is getting the ball, about 7 minutes left, if they don't score I might get a better number at halftime, trying to buy off the Over I'm stuck with.

Update: Got what I wanted, no score from Mid Ten, a few more minutes off the clock, BUT, they just called a timeout cuz they're going to go for it on 4th and 2 instead of punting and pinning Troy deep. No lines yet.
After Mid Ten screws it up on 4th down. It's going to leave Troy with a short field and screw up the number that we could have got at halftime.

And . . . Mid Ten is short, of course, screwed up as expected, and now the team they can't stop only has half a field to go to reach the end zone.
College head coaches are the most overpaid morons in the world.

Update: Caught a break. After giving up two first downs, Mid Tenn stopped them, they have the ball on their own 5 yard line, a little over a minute to go. As long as they don't screw up, three and out and a punt and we might make it to halftime with just 24 pts.

And . . .as soon as I hit "save changes" after saying "as long as they don't screw up" - they screw up. Safety, 26 pts now.

One minute, 23 seconds left to halftime, ball at around midfield.

40 seconds left ball on the 30.
Twelve seconds left. If they get to halftime at 26 I'll get a great number to go Over in the second half.

Eight seconds now, 3rd down.

And . . . as I said when I started this in-game thread, Mid Ten cannot stop this team (I'm not sure they could stop anybody.) Troy scores a TD with just three seconds left.

Update: First half has 33 pts scored.
Second half total is 30.
I have Under 65 in my pocket, and I don't like it.

If they didn't get that score with 3 seconds left I would have a great number to play Over for a middle.
Unders are my best play in this system, but if not for multiple turnovers this score would be in the upper 40s at least. Troy has 317 yards in the first half alone. I need to get off the Under 65, already bought off using the pic 'em when it was 7-7, but I don't think 30 is enough, I bought over 30.

 

[Box and one]

Enjoy your insight Thank you

 

[RBD]

Box&One - Thanks for stopping in and you're welcome.
As long as someone is enjoying it, I'll post again this week.

Recap: A good weekend. Hit my MLB system play, hit my NFL play, and hit 3 of 5 in college.
My record on college ball is now 5-3.

Let's get the losses out of the way first. (ALWAYS review your losses, you can learn from them.)

Missed with the Ov in Ok St. Their QB got KO'd on their second possession, changed the complexion of the game. With a backup in, they dropped their fast pace O scheme. This one was dead in the water midway through the second quarter, even OT wouldn't have helped.

The only other loss was a "Ye of Little Faith" blunder on my part. I gave up on my Under in the Troy game, added a second half adjustment, Ov 30. I needed 4 TD's and a FG for a tight middle, got the 4 TD'S but no FG as it landed on 28.

The three W's were the Under in the Troy game, Over in N Dame, and the live in-game buy on Troy.

A word on in-game bets. Sometimes I post live updates of the game I'm watching, adding in-game bets. When I know I am going to buy it myself and recommend a buy, I do a short write-up with just the bet in it, while the game is still being played, but I don't hit "submit" to post the buy.
When they go to commercial, I get the line, add it to my post and then submit it so as to give anyone who is interested time to bet it, too. After posting, I get my bet in. This allows for the max time I can give to anyone interested in jumping on. After I make my bet, I edit the post to add some reasons for the buy.

Follow me on this sequence and why I posted, and bet.
In the Troy game, they start with a 13 play drive for a TD.
Mid Tenn St goes 6 plays and out; punt.
Troy goes from their 38 yd line to MTS's 12, e-a-s-i-l-y. But . . . they toss a red zone INT.
MTS goes 3 and out.
Troy goes from their 37 yd line to the MTS 28, e-a-s-i-l-y. But . . . fumble.

It's clear to me that Mid Tenn's 42-0 loss to Army was no "off day" - these guys can't tackle.

I'm going to buy Troy, but wait because MTS has the ball; if they score, I'll get a better line.
MTS scores a TD and the books hang a gift at pic 'em.
I post it then buy it.
The books are not watching every game.
In three possessions, Troy has taken the ball straight down the field, e-a-s-i-l-y.
The ONLY reason the game isn't 21-7, or 17-7 worst case, is because of the two turnovers.
The books just see a 7-7 game. They likely do not know the flow of the game. They may see the turnovers, but if they did they didn't understand they came after two nice drives in which MTS couldn't stop Troy.
So with a 7-7 score on a game that closed at Troy -2', they make the live in-game line pic 'em.
It's a bad #.

In my write-up, I mentioned what was going on in the game and why I bet.
Anyone who didn't get the pic 'em could have gotten in on the play at various times during the first half at Troy -2', Troy -5', Troy -7', as the Trojans went on to outscore MTS 40-7 over the rest of the game.
Easy winner.


After 5-1 last week, the systems had another great day at 5-2.
The losses were the Ok St Over and UL Laf.
N Dame Over, Troy Under, BC St Over, LA Tech +5 and S Miss Over were all winners.

Records:
Play #1: 6-3; Ov 4-3, Un 2-0
Play #2: 4-2; Favs 1-2, Dogs 3-0
10-5 overall

Notes: Unders continue to be the best performers, 2-0 now.
I don't trust Play #2. I haven't got years of data on it like I do with Play #1.
I'm working on two other plays that I may start posting if the W% stays up in the 60% + zone.

This week's spots.

Play #1:
Army/Cincy Ov 46'/45'
Geo/Ark Ov 53/51
Tenn/S Car Ov 48'/46'/46
Miss St/LSU Un 56/57/57'
Duke/Virg Un 46'/47

Play #2:
Fla -11'/-14'
V Tech -7
Liberty -7
LSU -17/16'
Fla Atl -4/-3
Tulane -3/3'

A lot to consider/choose from.
Unfortunately, more Overs then Unders, and Unders are always the stronger play.
Also, no Dogs on Play #2, and Dogs are the stronger play right now (3-0 with all Dogs winning SU.)

Unlikely I'll buy the Duke Un spot; will buy Miss St Un but the line is moving in my favor so I'll wait.

No buys for now, will update when I do.

 

[Coach Woody]

Thanks RBD,

I always look and end up playing a lot of your plays. Thanks for your hard work

 

[RBD]

Coach - thanks for letting me know. Keep an eye on Unders. Historically, that's where the best W % is.

Update - As noted yesterday, I delayed buying the Miss St/LSU spot because it opened 56, went to 57, then 57'. Was hoping to pick up 1-2 more pts but the board is divided right now between 56 & 55' so I just grabbed a 56 before it drops anymore.

I like the Army Over spot but lost a pt and a half since yesterday, 45' is now 47. May add it.
I'm going to go through last year's database to see the record for Overs that climbed up 2 pts or >, how many went Over, how many went Under.

Will update in this post with any more buys.

Buys:
Miss St/LSU Un 56

 

[Coach Woody]

Just got LSU under at 57.5. Bonus!!!

Thanks RBD