College Football buys for 2020
- Thread starter RBD
- Start date
Glad you got a good line, Coach.
Update: No more waiting and observing,
it's time to play.
Army Ov 45
I don't like playing Overs with Cincinnati, especially when they're Favs, because when they have the lead Fickell plays like you should with a fourth quarter lead - use the entire play clock, employ smart play-clock management. But I got the number I wanted as it's down from 46' to 45 across the board.
Geo Ov 52'
Waited too long on this one and missed the best number of 51.
But, it's a system play and I think Georgia can get most of this # all by themselves.
Ok Ov 60'
Not a system play, but Ok State screwed me on an Over last week, I think I can get it back on Ok here. Like Georgia, Ok will have to get me most of the 60' all by themselves.
Tenn Ov 43'
A spot in system Play #1, and also qualifies for a new system I'm tracking, based on a differential of 5 pts or more from a base model.
Buys
Miss St/LSU Un 56
Army Ov 45
Geo Ov 52'
Ok Ov 60'
Tenn Ov 43'
Update: No more waiting and observing,
it's time to play.
Army Ov 45
I don't like playing Overs with Cincinnati, especially when they're Favs, because when they have the lead Fickell plays like you should with a fourth quarter lead - use the entire play clock, employ smart play-clock management. But I got the number I wanted as it's down from 46' to 45 across the board.
Geo Ov 52'
Waited too long on this one and missed the best number of 51.
But, it's a system play and I think Georgia can get most of this # all by themselves.
Ok Ov 60'
Not a system play, but Ok State screwed me on an Over last week, I think I can get it back on Ok here. Like Georgia, Ok will have to get me most of the 60' all by themselves.
Tenn Ov 43'
A spot in system Play #1, and also qualifies for a new system I'm tracking, based on a differential of 5 pts or more from a base model.
Buys
Miss St/LSU Un 56
Army Ov 45
Geo Ov 52'
Ok Ov 60'
Tenn Ov 43'
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KOD - Having rules provides me with guidelines for discipline, discipline leads to less plays, smarter plays.
But they're only effective if you follow them. That's not always easy.
Thanks for stopping in.
Second half play:
G South/La Laff Ov 24
Turnovers, missed FG, and incompetence in the red zone have kept this a low scoring game at 7-7. Towards the end of the second quarter I made a number for the second half, to match against the line the books put up. Theirs came out lower than mine by a FG, so I bought the Over. I expect better play/less mistakes, and scoring that is more typical of these two teams in the second half.
But they're only effective if you follow them. That's not always easy.
Thanks for stopping in.
Second half play:
G South/La Laff Ov 24
Turnovers, missed FG, and incompetence in the red zone have kept this a low scoring game at 7-7. Towards the end of the second quarter I made a number for the second half, to match against the line the books put up. Theirs came out lower than mine by a FG, so I bought the Over. I expect better play/less mistakes, and scoring that is more typical of these two teams in the second half.
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Lowell, I wanted them to kick the extra point too, rooting for OT, but going for 2 pts likely gave us the push, avoiding a loss. Had they kicked the extra pt, it's no guarantee the rest of the game would have played out the same way, ending with a FG, but that was the likely scenario. Like you said, I'll take the push, seeing as to how close it came to being a loss.
Hawkeye, yeah, close, but no cigar. Still, I don't expect to win every week, and if I'm going to have a losing week l want it to be by one game, like this week at 2-3.
After winning my 9 am game, and seeing a quick 10 pts in Army (needed the Over), and just 3 pts scored in Q1 in LSU (needed the Under) in my mid-day games, I felt pretty good about the way my card was shaping up.
With a 1-3 day going into my late play, I felt good getting the W with the Tenn game to go to 2-3 rather than 1-4. If I had won just one of the mid-day games, I would have added Tenn Ov 21 in the second half. That game fit in two systems, Play #1 as posted here, and one of the new ones I'm working on that I mentioned, one that had a nice day on Overs in my chart. But, with a 1-3 day, I went conservative and just rode out the Tenn Ov for the full game play.
Recap: 2-3 (and a Push.)
Hit with Ok Ov & Tenn Ov, missed with LSU Un, Geo Ov & Army/Cin Over (proving why I said I don't like playing Cincy Over when they're Favs.)
I had a good take on the Duke/Virg Under: "Unlikely I'll buy the Duke Un spot."
Good move laying off the Under, even though it's traditionally my best play.
The # I made on the game had it a TD higher than the book's #, AND one of the two new systems I'm working on also called for it to sail Over.
Only thing that prevented me from fading it and trying the Over is the strong history the Unders have in these spots. It went Over by 12 pts.
Record 7-6
Overs 3-3
Unders 3-2 (2-1 on Under system spots from Play #1, the third win and the other loss were from fading Overs in Play #1.)
Sides 0-0
Live in-game 1-0
Second half plays 0-1
The system records.
Play #1: 7-7; Ov 5-5, Un 2-2
Play #2: 7-4; Favs 4-4, Dogs 3-0
If Unders don't do better than .500, it's going to be a long season for me.
Overall #'s for college I have 40 Overs, 38 Unders, no real edge there.
Back with plays after I finish handicapping.
Hawkeye, yeah, close, but no cigar. Still, I don't expect to win every week, and if I'm going to have a losing week l want it to be by one game, like this week at 2-3.
After winning my 9 am game, and seeing a quick 10 pts in Army (needed the Over), and just 3 pts scored in Q1 in LSU (needed the Under) in my mid-day games, I felt pretty good about the way my card was shaping up.
With a 1-3 day going into my late play, I felt good getting the W with the Tenn game to go to 2-3 rather than 1-4. If I had won just one of the mid-day games, I would have added Tenn Ov 21 in the second half. That game fit in two systems, Play #1 as posted here, and one of the new ones I'm working on that I mentioned, one that had a nice day on Overs in my chart. But, with a 1-3 day, I went conservative and just rode out the Tenn Ov for the full game play.
Recap: 2-3 (and a Push.)
Hit with Ok Ov & Tenn Ov, missed with LSU Un, Geo Ov & Army/Cin Over (proving why I said I don't like playing Cincy Over when they're Favs.)
I had a good take on the Duke/Virg Under: "Unlikely I'll buy the Duke Un spot."
Good move laying off the Under, even though it's traditionally my best play.
The # I made on the game had it a TD higher than the book's #, AND one of the two new systems I'm working on also called for it to sail Over.
Only thing that prevented me from fading it and trying the Over is the strong history the Unders have in these spots. It went Over by 12 pts.
Record 7-6
Overs 3-3
Unders 3-2 (2-1 on Under system spots from Play #1, the third win and the other loss were from fading Overs in Play #1.)
Sides 0-0
Live in-game 1-0
Second half plays 0-1
The system records.
Play #1: 7-7; Ov 5-5, Un 2-2
Play #2: 7-4; Favs 4-4, Dogs 3-0
If Unders don't do better than .500, it's going to be a long season for me.
Overall #'s for college I have 40 Overs, 38 Unders, no real edge there.
Back with plays after I finish handicapping.
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This weeks spots.
Play #1:
Miss/Tenn Ov 48'
TCU/Tex Un 62'
S Fla/Cin Ov 45'
Aub/Geo Ov 44'
Char/Fla Atl Ov 60'
Play #2:
UNC -13'
Kentucky -6'
Fla -17'
Fla Atl -6'
Just not getting enough Unders to choose from, only one this week and I don't like the #.
We have some repeat teams, teams that have been in the play earlier this year:
Tenn was in an Over, 1-0
Cin was in an Over, 0-1
S Fla was in an Over, 1-0
Geo was in an Over, 0-1
Char was in an Under, 1-0
I'm sticking with what worked for me last week, will likely buy the Ten game Over.
Last week Tenn total dropped 5 pts from the opening #.
It's 48' all across the board now, I'll wait to see if it drops again.
Also, Georgia just missed last week due to a slow start and a lousy opponent.
I know Auburn will put up more the the Razorback's 10 pts, so I'm going to take a shot with the Bulldogs again this week. The board is split right now, with 44' and 45 out there. I grabbed a 44'.
Looks like Fla Atl is finally getting their season started. I see some talk of rust, but I think it'll be a case of frustration taken out on whoever happens to be in their way; not a good spot for Charlotte.
Laying the 6' pts doesn't concern me but the total does, so I bought a two team teaser, Fla Atl +1 with Over 56, laying 12/10.
Buys:
Aub/Geo Ov 44'
Fla Atl +1/ Fla Atl Over 56
Play #1:
Miss/Tenn Ov 48'
TCU/Tex Un 62'
S Fla/Cin Ov 45'
Aub/Geo Ov 44'
Char/Fla Atl Ov 60'
Play #2:
UNC -13'
Kentucky -6'
Fla -17'
Fla Atl -6'
Just not getting enough Unders to choose from, only one this week and I don't like the #.
We have some repeat teams, teams that have been in the play earlier this year:
Tenn was in an Over, 1-0
Cin was in an Over, 0-1
S Fla was in an Over, 1-0
Geo was in an Over, 0-1
Char was in an Under, 1-0
I'm sticking with what worked for me last week, will likely buy the Ten game Over.
Last week Tenn total dropped 5 pts from the opening #.
It's 48' all across the board now, I'll wait to see if it drops again.
Also, Georgia just missed last week due to a slow start and a lousy opponent.
I know Auburn will put up more the the Razorback's 10 pts, so I'm going to take a shot with the Bulldogs again this week. The board is split right now, with 44' and 45 out there. I grabbed a 44'.
Looks like Fla Atl is finally getting their season started. I see some talk of rust, but I think it'll be a case of frustration taken out on whoever happens to be in their way; not a good spot for Charlotte.
Laying the 6' pts doesn't concern me but the total does, so I bought a two team teaser, Fla Atl +1 with Over 56, laying 12/10.
Buys:
Aub/Geo Ov 44'
Fla Atl +1/ Fla Atl Over 56
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I'm in the mood for some action tonight, but I don't like the side or total.
So, for some TV viewing fun, I'm going to use a teaser.
The Over has the highest differential between my number and what the books are offering, so that's what I bought, Ov 53, two team teaser, 12/10.
BYU O vs LA Tech D should see BYU put up > 42 by themselves.
Tech should be able to get me the other 10 pts or so.
I'll leave the other spot in the teaser open, the Tenn # is not dropping like I hoped it would, may use that for part two tomorrow.
Buys:
Aub/Geo Ov 44'
Fla Atl +1/ Fla Atl Over 56
LA Tech/BYU Ov 53/open
So, for some TV viewing fun, I'm going to use a teaser.
The Over has the highest differential between my number and what the books are offering, so that's what I bought, Ov 53, two team teaser, 12/10.
BYU O vs LA Tech D should see BYU put up > 42 by themselves.
Tech should be able to get me the other 10 pts or so.
I'll leave the other spot in the teaser open, the Tenn # is not dropping like I hoped it would, may use that for part two tomorrow.
Buys:
Aub/Geo Ov 44'
Fla Atl +1/ Fla Atl Over 56
LA Tech/BYU Ov 53/open
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Recap: Good move using the teaser to take the total down to 53 in the BYU game as it landed on 59 and a play on the over would have been a loss. Now I've got the open-end in my back pocket.
I stopped in to say why I didn't use it on the Tennessee game Over today. The number didn't drop to where I wanted it to be before I make a play, and I don't trust the Missouri offense as they have a piddling passing game.
Looking at a few other spots to use it in the aternoon games, and hoping to get a second-half play in too.
Back in a bit...
Update:
For the open end of the teaser I'm going to go back to what worked for me last week and use the Ok game Over.
Buys:
Aub/Geo Ov 44'
Fla Atl +1/ Fla Atl Over 56
LA Tech-BYU Ov 53/Ok-K St Ov 56.
I stopped in to say why I didn't use it on the Tennessee game Over today. The number didn't drop to where I wanted it to be before I make a play, and I don't trust the Missouri offense as they have a piddling passing game.
Looking at a few other spots to use it in the aternoon games, and hoping to get a second-half play in too.
Back in a bit...
Update:
For the open end of the teaser I'm going to go back to what worked for me last week and use the Ok game Over.
Buys:
Aub/Geo Ov 44'
Fla Atl +1/ Fla Atl Over 56
LA Tech-BYU Ov 53/Ok-K St Ov 56.
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Recap: 1-2, missed with Geo Over 44' when the #7 team in the country couldn't get into the end zone even one time. Had a good score at halftime with 27 pts in, but with Aub unable to score, Georgia didn't have to push the pace and I couldn't get a measly 18 pts in the 2nd half.
On the Fla Atl teaz, I hit with the side, but missed with the total.
Hit with Ok Over to close the open ended teaser I started on Friday night.
Record 7-7.
Good day to fade the systems as they went a perfect 0-9.
Unfortunately, I didn't use any fades. I will this week.
Play#1 is 7-12, 5-9 Ov, Un 2-3.
Play #2 is 7-8, Favs 4-8, Dogs 3-0.
Clearly, I'm not going to be able to rely on these systems this year.
Whether it's Covid-related or not I have no idea, but they are not playing out in their usual fashion.
Fading Overs looks decent but they can just as easily even out to .500. this week, so I'll take it game by game.
Play #1: 7-12; Ov 5-9, Un 2-3
Play #2: 7-8; Fav 4-8, Dogs 3-0
This week's spots:
Play #1
Louis/Geo Tech Un 63/64
NC St/Virg Un 60/63
Ark/Aub Ov 49/47
S Car/Vandy Ov 42'
Duke/Syr Un 48'
Tenn/Geo Ov 45/43'
Tx St/Troy Ov 60/59
Pitt/BC Ov 44
Play #2
Liberty -19'
Kentucky -2
Texas -1'
LA Tech -15'
ND -21
K St +8'
Got three Unders to look at this week, and a few Overs to look at fading.
If I get the right #, I'll play Tenn/Geo to go Over, even though Geo is 0-2 in this spot (and they have gone Under - what? - 18 out of their last 20 games or something like that?)
Update - Wed morning.
I'm going to buy the Louisville Under spot, but waiting.
It's already gone up a pt, and general rule of thumb is - When buying an Under on a nationally televised game - and especially a 'stand alone' game (no other games on the card) - late $ from the Over-loving public drives the total up, so wait until game day to buy it. I'll monitor this # and hope to squeeze another 1 - 1' onto it. Will post when I buy.
On the Fla Atl teaz, I hit with the side, but missed with the total.
Hit with Ok Over to close the open ended teaser I started on Friday night.
Record 7-7.
Good day to fade the systems as they went a perfect 0-9.
Unfortunately, I didn't use any fades. I will this week.
Play#1 is 7-12, 5-9 Ov, Un 2-3.
Play #2 is 7-8, Favs 4-8, Dogs 3-0.
Clearly, I'm not going to be able to rely on these systems this year.
Whether it's Covid-related or not I have no idea, but they are not playing out in their usual fashion.
Fading Overs looks decent but they can just as easily even out to .500. this week, so I'll take it game by game.
Play #1: 7-12; Ov 5-9, Un 2-3
Play #2: 7-8; Fav 4-8, Dogs 3-0
This week's spots:
Play #1
Louis/Geo Tech Un 63/64
NC St/Virg Un 60/63
Ark/Aub Ov 49/47
S Car/Vandy Ov 42'
Duke/Syr Un 48'
Tenn/Geo Ov 45/43'
Tx St/Troy Ov 60/59
Pitt/BC Ov 44
Play #2
Liberty -19'
Kentucky -2
Texas -1'
LA Tech -15'
ND -21
K St +8'
Got three Unders to look at this week, and a few Overs to look at fading.
If I get the right #, I'll play Tenn/Geo to go Over, even though Geo is 0-2 in this spot (and they have gone Under - what? - 18 out of their last 20 games or something like that?)
Update - Wed morning.
I'm going to buy the Louisville Under spot, but waiting.
It's already gone up a pt, and general rule of thumb is - When buying an Under on a nationally televised game - and especially a 'stand alone' game (no other games on the card) - late $ from the Over-loving public drives the total up, so wait until game day to buy it. I'll monitor this # and hope to squeeze another 1 - 1' onto it. Will post when I buy.
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Unders in Play #1 are 2-3, but I know their history and I'm not ready to abandon them just yet.
I need 65-66 on the Louis/G Tech spot, but I don't think I'm going to get it.
As noted in the post above, waiting is usually the best strategy on stand alone games where you're looking to bet Unders, but I see some houses shading the $ to the Under side of the 64, so just as good a chance it drops to 63 as there is it rises to 65.
With Unders not performing as well as they usually do this year, and not getting the number I circled for me to make this game a buy on the Under, I decided to tease the total.
I was going to tease the # up and take the Under, but, I had an idea . . .
The record on Play #1 Un is 2-3. What would the record be if I teased all five games up and took Unders?
I checked the chart and see it would be 3-2.
But, what if I teased it down and took all five games Over?
It would be 5-0.
Those #'s favor teasing the total down and taking the Over, but . . . add in the weather factor (good chance of showers), my history on Unders, and gut feel, and I'm taking the # up 6 pts and buying the Under, leaving the second game open for now.
Buys:
Louisville/G Tech Un 70
Update: I'm going back to Georgia Over again.
1 - It's active for Play #1. Though they have under-performed thus, I'm sticking with them.
2 - YES, Georgia's D has looked great, surrendering just 16 pts in two games, but the Tenn offense has looked good thus far, putting up 31 vs SC and 35 vs Mizzoo, they HAVE to be able to put up more than Auburn's pitiful 6 points, right?
3 - Yes, I know the Bulldogs have gone Under, what, 15 straight games at home/nuetral sites now?
AND I'm 0-2 on Geo Overs.
I feel like a mosquito heading for the bug zapper, but here I go anyway. Tenn/Geo Over 37 (Yes, I teased the total down 6 pts, I'm not THAT much of a glutton for punishment. I need every edge I can get or I'll be 0-3.)
If the Ok 2' climbs another 1/2 pt I'm going to add Texas,
will add K St too, again, just waiting on the line moves.
Buys:
Louisville/G Tech Un 70 (two team teaser, second spot open, 11/10)
Tenn/Geo Ov 37 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
I need 65-66 on the Louis/G Tech spot, but I don't think I'm going to get it.
As noted in the post above, waiting is usually the best strategy on stand alone games where you're looking to bet Unders, but I see some houses shading the $ to the Under side of the 64, so just as good a chance it drops to 63 as there is it rises to 65.
With Unders not performing as well as they usually do this year, and not getting the number I circled for me to make this game a buy on the Under, I decided to tease the total.
I was going to tease the # up and take the Under, but, I had an idea . . .
The record on Play #1 Un is 2-3. What would the record be if I teased all five games up and took Unders?
I checked the chart and see it would be 3-2.
But, what if I teased it down and took all five games Over?
It would be 5-0.
Those #'s favor teasing the total down and taking the Over, but . . . add in the weather factor (good chance of showers), my history on Unders, and gut feel, and I'm taking the # up 6 pts and buying the Under, leaving the second game open for now.
Buys:
Louisville/G Tech Un 70
Update: I'm going back to Georgia Over again.
1 - It's active for Play #1. Though they have under-performed thus, I'm sticking with them.
2 - YES, Georgia's D has looked great, surrendering just 16 pts in two games, but the Tenn offense has looked good thus far, putting up 31 vs SC and 35 vs Mizzoo, they HAVE to be able to put up more than Auburn's pitiful 6 points, right?
3 - Yes, I know the Bulldogs have gone Under, what, 15 straight games at home/nuetral sites now?
AND I'm 0-2 on Geo Overs.
I feel like a mosquito heading for the bug zapper, but here I go anyway. Tenn/Geo Over 37 (Yes, I teased the total down 6 pts, I'm not THAT much of a glutton for punishment. I need every edge I can get or I'll be 0-3.)
If the Ok 2' climbs another 1/2 pt I'm going to add Texas,
will add K St too, again, just waiting on the line moves.
Buys:
Louisville/G Tech Un 70 (two team teaser, second spot open, 11/10)
Tenn/Geo Ov 37 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
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Recap: It was the kind of game that makes you want to give up handicapping. The kind of game that makes you sick.
I wanted Under in the Louisville game. My number said take it if you can get 65 or 66. It was at 64 so I teased it up and had Under 70. And I was right on the money as the total was at 66 points scored with 33 seconds left in the game. G Tech had the ball, up by 12 points. It was third and four on the Louisville 12 yard line, time to take a knee.
But here's the thing you have to know about Louisville coach Saterlee. He alone among all the college and pro head coaches has a play in his playbook, a magical play, one that can score 12 points in under 30 seconds. So he calls a timeout.
DOWN 12 POINTS, 33 SECONDS LEFT, this simpering little fool calls a timeout.
So instead of taking a knee on 3rd and 4, GT goes for the first down. Everyone knows the play they were going to run, a simple run up the middle. And that's what they did, while the Louisville players turned into matadors and said, "Ole!", giving the runner a clear path to the end zone for a TD.
It's as close as I've ever come to looking up an Athletic Directors phone number to leave him a message and tell him his coach is a fucking moron.
Teasing the Unders down and taking the Over is a perfect 6-0 now, and Play Number One is a perfect 0-10 in its last 10.
So, I'm going to tease the two Unders that are left on the card (the Virg & Duke games) and fade the Overs. Starting with the early games.
Buys:
Tenn/Geo Ov 37 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
NC St/Virg Ov 52 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Duke/Syr Ov 45 - Fla/Tx A&M Ov 52 (two team teaser; 12/10)
Tx St/Troy Un 59
K St +15' (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Mid Tenn St/ Fla Int Ov 50' (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
I wanted Under in the Louisville game. My number said take it if you can get 65 or 66. It was at 64 so I teased it up and had Under 70. And I was right on the money as the total was at 66 points scored with 33 seconds left in the game. G Tech had the ball, up by 12 points. It was third and four on the Louisville 12 yard line, time to take a knee.
But here's the thing you have to know about Louisville coach Saterlee. He alone among all the college and pro head coaches has a play in his playbook, a magical play, one that can score 12 points in under 30 seconds. So he calls a timeout.
DOWN 12 POINTS, 33 SECONDS LEFT, this simpering little fool calls a timeout.
So instead of taking a knee on 3rd and 4, GT goes for the first down. Everyone knows the play they were going to run, a simple run up the middle. And that's what they did, while the Louisville players turned into matadors and said, "Ole!", giving the runner a clear path to the end zone for a TD.
It's as close as I've ever come to looking up an Athletic Directors phone number to leave him a message and tell him his coach is a fucking moron.
Teasing the Unders down and taking the Over is a perfect 6-0 now, and Play Number One is a perfect 0-10 in its last 10.
So, I'm going to tease the two Unders that are left on the card (the Virg & Duke games) and fade the Overs. Starting with the early games.
Buys:
Tenn/Geo Ov 37 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
NC St/Virg Ov 52 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Duke/Syr Ov 45 - Fla/Tx A&M Ov 52 (two team teaser; 12/10)
Tx St/Troy Un 59
K St +15' (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Mid Tenn St/ Fla Int Ov 50' (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
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Recap: I won every buy I made, but can't call it a perfect day because most of the teasers I used would have won SU. Still, a good day overall.
Got a W with Tx St Un and got a W with the Duke/Fla teaser.
Also won all four other spots I used for open end teasers, so I have those in my pocket for use this week.
I gave out more teasers in one day then I gave all of last season.
After the bad beat on Fri night I guess I just didn't feel like trusting any lines.
Record 9-8.
Play #1 went 4-1 Ov, 0-3 Unders. Season is now at Ov 9-10, Un 2-6.
Play #2 went 2-2 om Favs, 1-1 on Dogs. Season at Favs 6-10, Dogs 4-1.
Overs are where they are usually at, hovering around .500
Unders are under-performing at 2-6 so I'll be looking to fade those.
* Note - Teasing Unders down and taking the Over is a perfect 8-0.
I used 2 of the 3 last week for this, and will use it in every one moving forward until it loses.
Update, Tuesday morning: Here are this week's spots.
Play #1 (Ov 9-10, Un 2-6)
Cin/Tulsa Ov 48/46/44'
U Mass/G South Un 61'/63
Tex A&M/Miss St Ov 54'
UNC/Fla St Un 61'/64
Navy/ECU Un 61/60'
Play #2 Fav 6-10, Dog 4-1
Aub -3'
G South -28'
NC St -13
Navy -2'
Clem -27
Mid Tn St -6'
Char -7
No dogs to play in Play #2 unfortunately, as this is where I got K St last week.
Have three Unders to tease. I'm going to tease every one of these until one loses (8-0 this far), but not to close out any of the four teasers I have in my pocket from last week.
With one win already in on a two teamer, I'm selective about what I use to close them out.
Buys:
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Navy/ECU Ov 54 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Got a W with Tx St Un and got a W with the Duke/Fla teaser.
Also won all four other spots I used for open end teasers, so I have those in my pocket for use this week.
I gave out more teasers in one day then I gave all of last season.
After the bad beat on Fri night I guess I just didn't feel like trusting any lines.
Record 9-8.
Play #1 went 4-1 Ov, 0-3 Unders. Season is now at Ov 9-10, Un 2-6.
Play #2 went 2-2 om Favs, 1-1 on Dogs. Season at Favs 6-10, Dogs 4-1.
Overs are where they are usually at, hovering around .500
Unders are under-performing at 2-6 so I'll be looking to fade those.
* Note - Teasing Unders down and taking the Over is a perfect 8-0.
I used 2 of the 3 last week for this, and will use it in every one moving forward until it loses.
Update, Tuesday morning: Here are this week's spots.
Play #1 (Ov 9-10, Un 2-6)
Cin/Tulsa Ov 48/46/44'
U Mass/G South Un 61'/63
Tex A&M/Miss St Ov 54'
UNC/Fla St Un 61'/64
Navy/ECU Un 61/60'
Play #2 Fav 6-10, Dog 4-1
Aub -3'
G South -28'
NC St -13
Navy -2'
Clem -27
Mid Tn St -6'
Char -7
No dogs to play in Play #2 unfortunately, as this is where I got K St last week.
Have three Unders to tease. I'm going to tease every one of these until one loses (8-0 this far), but not to close out any of the four teasers I have in my pocket from last week.
With one win already in on a two teamer, I'm selective about what I use to close them out.
Buys:
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Navy/ECU Ov 54 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
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Only one team from Louisiana is ranked top 25 right now.
And it ain't the LSU Tigers.
It's the Ragin' Cajuns.
Tonight, they take on Coastal Carolina.
Let's do an opponent comparison:
CC (3-0): #91 Ark St (2-2), #112 Kansas (0-3), and the Div I Campbell Camels (0-4.)
LA Laf (3-0): #107 G. South (2-1), #104 G St (1-1), #23 Iowa St (3-1)
LA Laf's 3-0 has come against tougher competition, and they're at home, but what sold me on the Cajun's is this - CC has had three easy wins vs lousy competition, they haven't been field tested yet.
On the other hand, we have the Cajuns and the toughness they showed in the OT win vs G St, and the late, comeback win vs G South.
Down by a pt to Southern, with just 54 seconds left on the clock, they took it from their own 25 yd line to the GS 36 and with just two seconds left kicked the game winning FG.
THAT is character building.
And that is the edge I'm playing tonight. Most game scripts think this will be close, and if it is, I want my $ on the team that has showed character, not the untested team that has been winning by an avg of more than two TD's at halftime, and by 22 in full games.
My # has LA Laf by double digits, so it's a good spot to use for the open end of a teaser where I just need them to win. It won't be as easy as last year's 48-7 ass whoopin' but should be plenty enough to cover 1'.
Buys:
Tenn/Geo Ov 37 - La Laf -1'
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Navy/ECU Ov 54 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
And it ain't the LSU Tigers.
It's the Ragin' Cajuns.
Tonight, they take on Coastal Carolina.
Let's do an opponent comparison:
CC (3-0): #91 Ark St (2-2), #112 Kansas (0-3), and the Div I Campbell Camels (0-4.)
LA Laf (3-0): #107 G. South (2-1), #104 G St (1-1), #23 Iowa St (3-1)
LA Laf's 3-0 has come against tougher competition, and they're at home, but what sold me on the Cajun's is this - CC has had three easy wins vs lousy competition, they haven't been field tested yet.
On the other hand, we have the Cajuns and the toughness they showed in the OT win vs G St, and the late, comeback win vs G South.
Down by a pt to Southern, with just 54 seconds left on the clock, they took it from their own 25 yd line to the GS 36 and with just two seconds left kicked the game winning FG.
THAT is character building.
And that is the edge I'm playing tonight. Most game scripts think this will be close, and if it is, I want my $ on the team that has showed character, not the untested team that has been winning by an avg of more than two TD's at halftime, and by 22 in full games.
My # has LA Laf by double digits, so it's a good spot to use for the open end of a teaser where I just need them to win. It won't be as easy as last year's 48-7 ass whoopin' but should be plenty enough to cover 1'.
Buys:
Tenn/Geo Ov 37 - La Laf -1'
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Navy/ECU Ov 54 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
You're welcome, Yanno.
Unfortunately, my analysis was better than the Cajun's performance.
But I thank you for stopping in to say 'hello.'
Recap: Thought I had this one nailed.
The game script played out exactly as I anticipated, a close game, late in the 4th quarter.
With about 6-7 minutes left the score was tied, and LA Laf had the ball.
I had the team off a last second FG win, and an OT win the game before that.
I had the experienced senior QB, at home, and . . . he screwed up.
It should have been a methodical, time consuming drive that ended in a TD or FG, leaving Coastal little time to come back. But two bad passes, and a bad decision to pass instead of run when he had a clear path to an easy first down, gave the ball back to CC, and it was the untested rookie QB who was the one that ran a masterful time consuming drive that ended in a FG, leaving just 6 seconds left on the game clock.
Yes, as the annoucers said, the receivers should have caught the two passes, but one was high and the other was behind the receiver. They were simply bad passes, ones that if thrown where they should have been would have led to huge gains. And there was no reason to throw on third down, he had a clear 15 yards in front of him.
Nothing to learn from the loss, nothing I can isolate in my 'capping that I can use to improve, I just didn't get the performance I thought I would. And one of my four open teasers is gone.
Will update when I make another buy.
Update, Thur:
Closing two of the three teasers I have left using one of tomorrow night's games.
Buys:
NC St/Virg Ov 52 - BYU +1
Duke/Syr Ov 45 - Hou/BYU Ov 56
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Navy/ECU Ov 54 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Friday Update:
It won't see as many points as last night's game, but N Tex and Mid Tenn St should be just as much fun to watch. I see a # like MTS -6' and I think, "Grab the pts, this team shouldn't be favored by 6 over ANYBODY."
But if there is one team, it's N Tex.
N Tex's D is rated #130 out of 131 teams in PPG allowed, MTS is #118.
N Tex is near the bottom in passing yards against, and the only reason MTS isn't at the bottom too is because everybody is running against them because they can't tackle.
I'm tempted to grab N Tex and the pts, and if it goes to +7 I might, but for now, I can't see how they don't score > than 30 each so I used it in another open end teaser at Ov 66, (11/10).
Buys:
NC St/Virg Ov 52 - BYU +1
Duke/Syr Ov 45 - Hou/BYU Ov 56
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Navy/ECU Ov 54 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
N Tex/Mid Ten St Ov 66 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Unfortunately, my analysis was better than the Cajun's performance.
But I thank you for stopping in to say 'hello.'
Recap: Thought I had this one nailed.
The game script played out exactly as I anticipated, a close game, late in the 4th quarter.
With about 6-7 minutes left the score was tied, and LA Laf had the ball.
I had the team off a last second FG win, and an OT win the game before that.
I had the experienced senior QB, at home, and . . . he screwed up.
It should have been a methodical, time consuming drive that ended in a TD or FG, leaving Coastal little time to come back. But two bad passes, and a bad decision to pass instead of run when he had a clear path to an easy first down, gave the ball back to CC, and it was the untested rookie QB who was the one that ran a masterful time consuming drive that ended in a FG, leaving just 6 seconds left on the game clock.
Yes, as the annoucers said, the receivers should have caught the two passes, but one was high and the other was behind the receiver. They were simply bad passes, ones that if thrown where they should have been would have led to huge gains. And there was no reason to throw on third down, he had a clear 15 yards in front of him.
Nothing to learn from the loss, nothing I can isolate in my 'capping that I can use to improve, I just didn't get the performance I thought I would. And one of my four open teasers is gone.
Will update when I make another buy.
Update, Thur:
Closing two of the three teasers I have left using one of tomorrow night's games.
Buys:
NC St/Virg Ov 52 - BYU +1
Duke/Syr Ov 45 - Hou/BYU Ov 56
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Navy/ECU Ov 54 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Friday Update:
It won't see as many points as last night's game, but N Tex and Mid Tenn St should be just as much fun to watch. I see a # like MTS -6' and I think, "Grab the pts, this team shouldn't be favored by 6 over ANYBODY."
But if there is one team, it's N Tex.
N Tex's D is rated #130 out of 131 teams in PPG allowed, MTS is #118.
N Tex is near the bottom in passing yards against, and the only reason MTS isn't at the bottom too is because everybody is running against them because they can't tackle.
I'm tempted to grab N Tex and the pts, and if it goes to +7 I might, but for now, I can't see how they don't score > than 30 each so I used it in another open end teaser at Ov 66, (11/10).
Buys:
NC St/Virg Ov 52 - BYU +1
Duke/Syr Ov 45 - Hou/BYU Ov 56
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
Navy/ECU Ov 54 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
N Tex/Mid Ten St Ov 66 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
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Recap:
Banked 2 units closing out two teasers last night.
Today, lost with the Navy Ov 54 teaser.
I bought it too early in the week, before ECU quarterback went down and the line dropped. A better buy would have been a winner.
(And it wouldn't hurt to have a coach who doesn't kick a meaningless field goal with five minutes left in the game when he's down by 7, especially to a team like Navy who you KNOW is going to run out the clock.)
With the Cincy game being canceled, there's only one Over left in Play Number One. Didn't get the best number again, but I'm adding it.
Buys:
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
N Tex/Mid Ten St Ov 66 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Tex A&M/Miss St Over 56
Add: Was hoping I'd get the extra hook I mentioned with MTS, but the line moved the other way (like I said, they shouldn't be favored by 6' over anybody.) I'm not going to take +3' when I could have had 6', but I'm still going to make a buy against the guys that can't tackle, adding N. Tex Ov 33'.
Banked 2 units closing out two teasers last night.
Today, lost with the Navy Ov 54 teaser.
I bought it too early in the week, before ECU quarterback went down and the line dropped. A better buy would have been a winner.
(And it wouldn't hurt to have a coach who doesn't kick a meaningless field goal with five minutes left in the game when he's down by 7, especially to a team like Navy who you KNOW is going to run out the clock.)
With the Cincy game being canceled, there's only one Over left in Play Number One. Didn't get the best number again, but I'm adding it.
Buys:
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
N Tex/Mid Ten St Ov 66 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Tex A&M/Miss St Over 56
Add: Was hoping I'd get the extra hook I mentioned with MTS, but the line moved the other way (like I said, they shouldn't be favored by 6' over anybody.) I'm not going to take +3' when I could have had 6', but I'm still going to make a buy against the guys that can't tackle, adding N. Tex Ov 33'.
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A game can't go Over if one of the two teams can't score.
And I'm stuck with two of them, The Leaches, and U. Mass.
So, I need some second-half adjustments.
As long as Leach doesn't pull Costello and put in somebody else at QB, A&M should cover -2'.
Buys:
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
N Tex/Mid Ten St Ov 66 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Tex A&M/Miss St Over 56
N. Tex Ov 33'
Tex A&M -2'
And I'm stuck with two of them, The Leaches, and U. Mass.
So, I need some second-half adjustments.
As long as Leach doesn't pull Costello and put in somebody else at QB, A&M should cover -2'.
Buys:
U Mass/G South Ov 56 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
UNC/Fla St Ov 57 (two team teaser, second spot open; 12/10)
N Tex/Mid Ten St Ov 66 (two team teaser, second spot open; 11/10)
Tex A&M/Miss St Over 56
N. Tex Ov 33'
Tex A&M -2'
Recap: A lousy Saturday with football but my day was saved by the +350 dog I gave in the boxing forum, hope some of you got in on it.
Lost with the Navy teaser, and U Mass teaser, and the Tex A&M teaser,
hit with N Tex team total Over, and the first half's of 2-teamers using UNC/Fla St Ov & N Tex/Mid Ten St Ov.
Lost the 2nd half adjustment play A&M -2' when Leach pulled Costello and put in a backup QB.
Record: 12-13, with three teasers open,
N Tex/Mid Tenn St and UNC/Fla St from last week, and Mid-Tenn/Fla Int from two weeks back.
First time all year that I've been underwater, 12-13 now.
Goal this week is to use all three open teasers, and a few strong games, to get back in black.
First buy is Tulsa Un 51, Friday game.
Next buy I want is the NC battle, Under. Best line slipped away by 3-4 pts today alone, so I want to get it before it drops anymore. Since I missed the best number I'll use the open teaser I have with UNC from last week to get a better number, NC St/NC Un 68.
Buys:
Tulsa/S Fla Un 51
UNC/Fla St (W last week) - NC St/NC Un 68
Thursday add:
I don't think the hook is going away on the Iowa St/Ok St game, better chance the # goes up not down so I'm buying it today while I can still get to -3 by buying the hook off @ -125. Juice-y, but I think it will be close so . . .
Ok St -3 (-125)
Friday add: Had this circled as one of my best plays for Saturday, not sure why I had the date wrong but caught it this morning so I'm adding it now. Using the open spot from the Mid-Tenn/Fla Int teaser to get LA LAF/UAB Un 56'.
Buys:
Tulsa/S Fla Un 51
UNC/Fla St (W last week) - NC St/NC Un 68
Ok St -3
Mid-Tenn/Fla Int (W 2 weeks ago) - LA LAF/UAB Un 57
Lost with the Navy teaser, and U Mass teaser, and the Tex A&M teaser,
hit with N Tex team total Over, and the first half's of 2-teamers using UNC/Fla St Ov & N Tex/Mid Ten St Ov.
Lost the 2nd half adjustment play A&M -2' when Leach pulled Costello and put in a backup QB.
Record: 12-13, with three teasers open,
N Tex/Mid Tenn St and UNC/Fla St from last week, and Mid-Tenn/Fla Int from two weeks back.
First time all year that I've been underwater, 12-13 now.
Goal this week is to use all three open teasers, and a few strong games, to get back in black.
First buy is Tulsa Un 51, Friday game.
Next buy I want is the NC battle, Under. Best line slipped away by 3-4 pts today alone, so I want to get it before it drops anymore. Since I missed the best number I'll use the open teaser I have with UNC from last week to get a better number, NC St/NC Un 68.
Buys:
Tulsa/S Fla Un 51
UNC/Fla St (W last week) - NC St/NC Un 68
Thursday add:
I don't think the hook is going away on the Iowa St/Ok St game, better chance the # goes up not down so I'm buying it today while I can still get to -3 by buying the hook off @ -125. Juice-y, but I think it will be close so . . .
Ok St -3 (-125)
Friday add: Had this circled as one of my best plays for Saturday, not sure why I had the date wrong but caught it this morning so I'm adding it now. Using the open spot from the Mid-Tenn/Fla Int teaser to get LA LAF/UAB Un 56'.
Buys:
Tulsa/S Fla Un 51
UNC/Fla St (W last week) - NC St/NC Un 68
Ok St -3
Mid-Tenn/Fla Int (W 2 weeks ago) - LA LAF/UAB Un 57
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