Recap: Hit with G Southern in the first half of a TV teaser. Now, the next time I'm going to watch a game I have no system on I can adjust the side/total 6 pts in my favor.
Newbie Note - If you're betting a game just because it's on TV and you want a rooting interest - not because you have a system, trend, or numbers that you like - bet a smaller amount than your standard size wager. Unless you have a high W % on TV plays, then bet your normal unit amount.
(And how would you know what your record is on TV plays? KEEP A LOGBOOK OF YOUR PLAYS! You track a team's play before you make a bet, you track trends, you track posters you fade or follow - how does it NOT make sense to know your own play also? End of sermon.)
The "Jinx Factor" saved me a unit last night. After missing out on a winner in the second half play on La Tech Under, my gut feel told me to not jump on FAU Under 7', and it was the right move as they scored 10.
Play #1 took an L last night on FAU Over. The game qualified as an Under in the New Play, then dropped below the # needed and was taken off the list. A half hour before game time it went back to 53, making it qualify, but it went to 52' at most houses by game time, so it missed by a hook. Game went Under.
We have four possible plays in the scenario where Play #1 says take the Over, New Play says take the Un (2-0 for the New Play on these this season, 3-0 if you bought FAU at 53): La Laf/Tex SA, Ok St/Miami, Ark/TCU, Tex A&M/N Car.
I already bought La Laf at -14 as it fits one of my best Bowl systems.
AND . . . it's another Sun Belt vs Conf USA (How'd that work out for N Tex & La Tech?)
Buying the La Laf Un early, at 58, was a good move because it's down to 56 at some houses today.
Betting a double digit Fav and the Under in the same game is not a position I like to put myself in, but these are both strong plays, so I bought both.
Mia/Ok is dropping, 59 mostly gone, 58' is the common number found at most places.
I'm adding it today in case it continues to drop.
This next part gets a little deep, but if you like numbers and handicapping read on.
I gave you "ideal situation" numbers on the Nev game Over (32% Under vs 65% Over.)
To clarify, one set of numbers (Data Source A) said take the Under (and it has a W% of 32%)
while another system (Data Source B) said take the Over (and it's W % is 65%.)
So, which would you wager on, the 32% or 65%? Easy choice, right?
When you flip the losing stat of 32% on Unders you get a 68% play on Overs.
Like I said, an easy choice on which way to play.
Here are the same two set of numbers when Source A says take Over while Source B says Under:
40% vs 72%.
To clarify, Source A has a record of 27-39 when recommending the Over,
Source B is 32-12 when recommending the Under.
So, when Source A (40%) says take the Over in a game, and Source B (72%) says take the Under, it adds what I call an "ideal situation" to the other systems/plays I use to make decisions on what to buy.
To bring relevance to all that jazz - Source A says take La Laf Over, while Source B says take it Under.
The same with the Miami game.
Both those spots fit the New Play Under parameters.
They fit, "When Play #1 says take the Over but the New Play says take the Under, take the Under (2-0.)"
And they also fit what I call an ideal situation.
If anyone needs an aspirin after digesting all that, you'll find them in the medicine cabinet. Better take two.
I have nothing on today's game, or tomorrow's.
Merry Christmas to you and yours,
hope you spend the day surrounded by family and friends . . .
Buys:
Tulane/Nev Ov 57 W
LA Laf/Tex SA Un 58
La Laf -14
Ok St/Mia Un 58'
TV Buys:
Geo South -1 (w), 2 team tease, 11/10; 2nd game open
Newbie Note - If you're betting a game just because it's on TV and you want a rooting interest - not because you have a system, trend, or numbers that you like - bet a smaller amount than your standard size wager. Unless you have a high W % on TV plays, then bet your normal unit amount.
(And how would you know what your record is on TV plays? KEEP A LOGBOOK OF YOUR PLAYS! You track a team's play before you make a bet, you track trends, you track posters you fade or follow - how does it NOT make sense to know your own play also? End of sermon.)
The "Jinx Factor" saved me a unit last night. After missing out on a winner in the second half play on La Tech Under, my gut feel told me to not jump on FAU Under 7', and it was the right move as they scored 10.
Play #1 took an L last night on FAU Over. The game qualified as an Under in the New Play, then dropped below the # needed and was taken off the list. A half hour before game time it went back to 53, making it qualify, but it went to 52' at most houses by game time, so it missed by a hook. Game went Under.
We have four possible plays in the scenario where Play #1 says take the Over, New Play says take the Un (2-0 for the New Play on these this season, 3-0 if you bought FAU at 53): La Laf/Tex SA, Ok St/Miami, Ark/TCU, Tex A&M/N Car.
I already bought La Laf at -14 as it fits one of my best Bowl systems.
AND . . . it's another Sun Belt vs Conf USA (How'd that work out for N Tex & La Tech?)
Buying the La Laf Un early, at 58, was a good move because it's down to 56 at some houses today.
Betting a double digit Fav and the Under in the same game is not a position I like to put myself in, but these are both strong plays, so I bought both.
Mia/Ok is dropping, 59 mostly gone, 58' is the common number found at most places.
I'm adding it today in case it continues to drop.
This next part gets a little deep, but if you like numbers and handicapping read on.
I gave you "ideal situation" numbers on the Nev game Over (32% Under vs 65% Over.)
To clarify, one set of numbers (Data Source A) said take the Under (and it has a W% of 32%)
while another system (Data Source B) said take the Over (and it's W % is 65%.)
So, which would you wager on, the 32% or 65%? Easy choice, right?
When you flip the losing stat of 32% on Unders you get a 68% play on Overs.
Like I said, an easy choice on which way to play.
Here are the same two set of numbers when Source A says take Over while Source B says Under:
40% vs 72%.
To clarify, Source A has a record of 27-39 when recommending the Over,
Source B is 32-12 when recommending the Under.
So, when Source A (40%) says take the Over in a game, and Source B (72%) says take the Under, it adds what I call an "ideal situation" to the other systems/plays I use to make decisions on what to buy.
To bring relevance to all that jazz - Source A says take La Laf Over, while Source B says take it Under.
The same with the Miami game.
Both those spots fit the New Play Under parameters.
They fit, "When Play #1 says take the Over but the New Play says take the Under, take the Under (2-0.)"
And they also fit what I call an ideal situation.
If anyone needs an aspirin after digesting all that, you'll find them in the medicine cabinet. Better take two.
I have nothing on today's game, or tomorrow's.
Merry Christmas to you and yours,
hope you spend the day surrounded by family and friends . . .
Buys:
Tulane/Nev Ov 57 W
LA Laf/Tex SA Un 58
La Laf -14
Ok St/Mia Un 58'
TV Buys:
Geo South -1 (w), 2 team tease, 11/10; 2nd game open
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